- Tyler Matzek didn’t appear in a single big league game from 2016-19, as the southpaw found his career all but halted due to control issues and a case of the yips. It took a long time and a lot of work for Matzek to feel comfortable on and off the field, as The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter Conn details, but Matzek returned to become a strong contributor out of the Braves bullpen over the last two seasons, culminating in his role in Atlanta’s World Series title. While Matzek’s control issues haven’t entirely gone away (he has a 12.2% walk rate in 2020-21), he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 31.2% strikeout over 92 regular season innings, plus an excellent 1.48 ERA over 24 1/3 postseason frames.
Braves Rumors
Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents
Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order. For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.
Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings. First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.
For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks. The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.
- Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary. The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+. Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category. If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
- Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds. The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere. The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town. The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins). For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
- Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round. Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.
Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…
- Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021. As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
- Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021. For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection. For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft. Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
- Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents. Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
- Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
Giants Acquire Tanner Andrews From Braves
The Giants have acquired minor league right-hander Tanner Andrews from the Braves in exchange for cash, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News). Atlanta had selected Andrews from the Marlins in yesterday’s Minor League Rule 5 Draft.
Major League transactions are on hold during the ongoing lockout, but yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft, this trade and a series of minor league free-agent signings around the league this week serve as a reminder that minor league transactions (for non-40-man players) are alive and well even as MLB and the MLBPA remain locked in a contentious set of collective bargaining negotiations.
[Related: 2021 Minor League Rule 5 Draft results]
Andrews, who recently turned 26, pitched just 5 2/3 innings this season. He landed on the IL early in the year with an elbow injury that led to him undergoing Tommy John surgery on July 7. He’ll miss a large portion of the 2022 season as a result, though if all goes well, he should be able to get some innings under his belt late in the year.
While the elbow injury will put his development on hold for awhile, Andrews still gives the Giants a 2018 tenth-rounder with a career 3.78 ERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and a 42% ground-ball rate through 164 1/3 pro frames. Most minor league Rule 5 selections prove to be depth options, but every so often, a name or two eventually breaks through to the Majors. Andrews will hope to add his name to that list, but he has a fair bit of rehab ahead of him before starting back down that road.
Braves Considered Anthony Rizzo Last Month
The Braves “explored” the possibility of signing free agent first baseman Anthony Rizzo in November, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. This could have potentially just been standard offseason procedure on the Braves’ part, since as Rosenthal notes, the club will naturally have backup plans in mind should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere.
Along those same lines, Atlanta has also been linked to the Matt Olson trade market, as Olson (projected to earn $12MM in his second trip through the arbitration process) stands out as a prime trade chip for an Athletics team that is looking to cut costs. It is probably safe to assume that the Braves have looked at other first base options besides just Rizzo and Olson as they prepare for a post-Freeman world, though Rosenthal observes that “most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves.”
Still, at least one rival executive is surprised that Freeman is still available, describing it as a “slap in the face” to Freeman that the Braves haven’t already worked out a new contract with the longtime face of the franchise. The most recent reports suggested that the Braves were hesitant about giving Freeman a sixth guaranteed year, and Freeman wanted something closer to a $200MM deal — or at least, perhaps closer to $200MM than the $135MM (over five years) deal that Atlanta offered at some point during negotiations between the two sides.
Rizzo presents an interesting first base alternative, as Rizzo is available for much less than Freeman’s asking price, and can be signed for just money, whereas Atlanta would surely have to send Oakland quite the package of young talent to work out a trade. MLBTR projected Rizzo for a three-year, $45MM pact, while ranking the 32-year-old in 21st place on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.
Of course, the obvious reason for that lower price tag is that while Freeman and Olson are still producing at All-Star levels, Rizzo’s bat has been more modestly productive (109 wRC+) since the start of the 2020 season. Over his last 819 plate appearances, Rizzo has hit .240/.343/.432 with 33 home runs for the Cubs and Yankees. Rizzo’s hard-contact numbers have also been in serious decline, while his 9% walk rate from 2021 was his lowest over a full season. His first base glovework also took a big dip in the eyes of the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, even if the Outs Above Average metric gave him a +6 (his best OAA score since 2017).
The universal DH would help quell any concerns about Rizzo’s defense, and his left-handed bat would help replace Freeman to some extent within a heavily right-handed Braves lineup. Rizzo is also still one of the better contact hitters in the league, which would help an Atlanta reduce a team strikeout rate that ranked 22nd out of 30 clubs in 2021.
Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market
With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.
At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.
Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.
Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.
Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.
Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.
Braves, Rangers Interested In Matt Olson
As the Athletics prepare to reduce their payroll, first baseman Matt Olson stands out as an obvious and popular trade chip, even if Oakland naturally is asking for quite a bit in return for the All-Star. The Braves are among the teams who have “checked in” with the A’s about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports, while Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers “have already begun investigating what it would take to get Olson.”
Atlanta’s interest in Olson is obviously viewed through the lens of the Freddie Freeman market, as there seems to be some level of increased chatter that Freeman might depart the Braves after 12 seasons, as the two sides have yet to agree on the length and dollar value of a new contract. As Heyman notes, there is a general feeling that Freeman will ultimately wind up re-signing, but if not, Olson could be the Braves’ “contingency plan” if they have a sudden vacancy to fill at first base.
For the Rangers, adding Olson would be only the latest move for a club that has been one of the biggest stories of the free agent season. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun have already been signed on the open market, though prying Olson away from the A’s would now carry a different cost for Texas in terms of younger talent. While the A’s and Rangers have lined up on some very notable trades in recent years, it is possible Oakland might command a particular premium from Texas (or any other AL West suitor) to move Olson within the division.
One of baseball’s top all-around first basemen, Olson has won two Gold Gloves to go along with his big power numbers, and he is only entering his age-28 season. Olson is also controlled via arbitration over the next two seasons, and while his $12MM projection for 2022 isn’t exactly light, it is still more than reasonable for a player of his caliber.
For the Braves, this salary would surely be a smoother fit in the long-term payroll plans than giving Freeman something in the realm of $160MM+ throughout his 30’s. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has said that the club’s payroll will rise in the wake of their World Series triumph, though a mega-deal for Freeman could itself take up all of that increase. Anthopoulos has scored big on the free agent market during his time in Atlanta, though mostly on short-term contracts — if Freeman leaves and the asking price for Olson isn’t palatable, it is easy to see the Braves pivoting to a shorter-term first base option that wouldn’t cost a ton in either free agent dollars or prospect capital.
It’s safe to say that payroll isn’t quite as big a concern with the Rangers, given what they’re already invested in roster upgrades. By that token, the Rangers might prefer to continue spending to address any needs rather than deal from their prospect base, though Grant observes that such middle-infield prospects as Justin Foscue, Davis Wendzel, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith could now be trade candidates in the wake of the Seager/Semien additions. Texas also has a good first base option already on hand in Nathaniel Lowe, yet Lowe (who is controlled through 2026) would also seem like the kind of trade chip that the Athletics would seek out as an Olson replacement at first base.
Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21
With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.
It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.
As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…
- The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
- The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
- The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
- Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.
Braves Non-Tender Richard Rodriguez
The Braves have non-tendered right-handed pitcher Richard Rodriguez, reports MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Acquired in a mid-season deal with Pittsburgh, Rodriguez pitched to fine bottom-line results in Atlanta but carried worrying peripherals and faded down the stretch. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the former closer to make $3.1MM in his upcoming trip through arbitration.
A non-tender is an unceremonious end to the year for a player who was a mainstay out of the Pirates bullpen for years. Still, Rodriguez was long thought to be a risky investment owing to a 2-pitch arsenal that leaned on a 93mph fastball most of the time. This approach led to excellent control (4% walk-rate in 2021) and ample pop-ups, but also left Rodriguez with a rather volatile strikeout ability (36.6% strikeout rate in 2020; 16.7% rate in 2021) and at heightened risk for home runs. As a player who has found ample success with his skillset, it won’t be a surprise to see Rodriguez get swooped up by a team for a similar price tag the Braves passed on.
Also being non-tendered by the club are infielder Johan Camargo and right-handed pitcher Jasseel De La Cruz. The soon-to-be 28-year-old Camargo had a 3.2 bWAR showing for the Braves back in 2018 but has seen his offense and playing time slide in recent years. A hitless 15-game stint with the Braves this year coupled with the recent extension of Orlando Arcia gives Atlanta reason to move on, though other clubs will surely be intrigued by Camargo’s versatility and continued Triple-A dominance. De La Cruz meanwhile has scattered strong results as a starter throughout his minor league career but struggled to a 7.19 ERA in 56 Triple-A innings. His non-tender frees up a spot on the Atlanta 40-man roster, bringing it down to 38 players.
Braves Sign Orlando Arcia To Two-Year Guarantee
The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Orlando Arcia on a two-year, $3MM contract. He’ll earn successive salaries of $1.6MM and $1.3MM over the next two seasons, per the team. The deal also contains a 2024 club option valued at $2MM that comes with a $100K buyout.
The contract extends the Braves’ window of club control by a season, as Arcia had been controllable through 2023 via arbitration. It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Braves commit any long-term money to Arcia at first glance. He only tallied 78 MLB plate appearances after Atlanta acquired him from the Brewers in April, with a poor .214/.282/.343 line to show for it. Arcia has been a below-average hitter in all five of his MLB seasons, with a .260/.317/.416 showing during the truncated 2020 campaign the best line of his career.
Arcia is coming off a very strong showing with Triple-A Gwinnett, though. Over 322 plate appearances at the minors’ top level, he hit .282/.351/.516 with 17 homers, only striking out in 11.8% of his tallies at the dish. By measure of wRC+, that offensive output was 29 percentage points better than the Triple-A East league average. And Arcia’s a valuable defensive player who generally posts decent numbers at shortstop and began to expand his versatility this past season.
Clearly, the Atlanta front office believes in his ability to contribute over the coming seasons, even if just off the bench. The $1.5MM average annual value is a minimal investment, and it’s actually a bit less than the $2.1MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had forecasted Arcia making in 2022 via arbitration.
That’s not to say Arcia and his representatives at World Sports Agency made a mistake in signing the deal. At that previous figure, he’d look like a non-tender candidate. The Venezuela native instead locks in some guaranteed money over the coming two seasons. Arcia is out of minor league option years, but it seems likely he’ll stick on the active roster out of camp given the team’s investment in him.
Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the Braves and Arcia were in agreement on a two-year, $3MM guarantee with a 2024 club option.
Yankees, Blue Jays Among Teams With Interest In Freddie Freeman
2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market this winter, and he’s unsurprisingly drawing interest from a few of the game’s higher-spending organizations. The Yankees and Blue Jays are among the teams to have reached out to the five-time All-Star, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).
Many around the industry expect Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves. The star first baseman has been a member of the organization for nearly a decade and a half, and it’d be a bitter pill for the fanbase to swallow if Freeman departs on the heels of Atlanta’s first World Series title since 1995. No deal has yet gotten done, though, with the Braves’ reluctance to offer a sixth guaranteed year reportedly the hold-up in talks so far. Heyman adds that Freeman had been seeking a guarantee in the $180MM range. Entering the offseason, MLBTR indeed projected a six-year, $180MM pact for the three-time Silver Slugger award winner.
It’s certainly not out of the question Freeman and the Braves will eventually bridge their gap. Heyman notes that some other organizations in pursuit are still skeptical about the possibility the 32-year-old leaves Atlanta. There’s no harm for clubs to reach out to Freeman’s representatives at Excel Sports Management in case the Braves aren’t willing to meet his ultimate ask, though.
Were Freeman to seriously entertain the possibility of leaving Atlanta, it stands to reason other clubs would get involved. Both Heyman and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have floated the possibility of the Dodgers making a run at the Southern California native. Los Angeles has already lost Corey Seager and could see Chris Taylor also depart. Signing Freeman while bumping Max Muncy over from first to second base would go a long way towards replacing the offensive production they’ve lost this winter.
Broadly speaking, any big-market team could poke around the Freeman market. The Jays have no need for a first baseman, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking to have made the jump to perennial MVP candidate. Toronto could free up at-bats at designated hitter to accommodate Freeman, though, and other high-spending clubs could similarly move incumbent pieces around to make a signing work. Freeman is one of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, having been at least 32 percentage points better than average at the plate (by measure of wRC+) in each season since 2013.
