Will Jason Heyward Make The Braves’ Opening Day Roster?
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution makes a prediction: "Jason Heyward is going to be the Braves' right fielder on opening day." Heyward, the top prospect in baseball, is impressing observers in every way possible this spring. Still, he is only 20 years old and has just 50 games experience above A ball.
Projection systems, looking only at Heyward's minor league stats and not the scouting reports, call for something around a .330 OBP and .425 SLG from Heyward in the Majors in 2010 (CHONE, ZiPS). A computer would give Heyward more minor league seasoning, under the theory that he's a lateral move from Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and Eric Hinske. Keeping Heyward in the minors for even two weeks would buy the Braves another year of control, similar to what the Rays did with Evan Longoria in 2008. If the Braves really wanted to save money, they could hold Heyward in the minors until mid-May to avoid Super Two status.
The Braves may feel, however, that Heyward is likely to exceed automated projections. They may consider intangibles such as the potential fan reaction to sending Heyward down. They may simply decide that winning is the only priority, and a full season of Heyward gives them the best chance to win. O'Brien has heard nothing about service time manipulation from Braves officials, "publicly or privately."
O'Brien brings up an interesting point: maybe the Braves already have designs to "make a multi-year contract offer well before [Heyward] hits arbitration," reducing the importance of Heyward's service time. Longoria certainly didn't take offense to the Rays' approach; he inked his team-friendly extension less than a week after his big league debut.
Bowden Talks To Epstein, Zduriencik, Reagins, Wren
Jim Bowden's weekly GM's Corner video pieces for FOX Sports make for good viewing. This week he talked to Theo Epstein, Jack Zduriencik, Tony Reagins, and Frank Wren. A few hot stove highlights:
- Epstein admitted that new third baseman Adrian Beltre would "have to have a big year" to achieve Type A status after the season, but finds at least Type B likely. Epstein noted that there's the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves to be a good fit.
- Zduriencik told Bowden he was aggressive in pursuing Chone Figgins, and got the deal done within 48 hours. Also, Zduriencik mentioned that the Brewers were one pick away from taking Casey Kotchman in the first round in 2001; they instead took Mike Jones at #12 overall. I wonder if the Brewers still would've drafted Prince Fielder in '02 if they had Kotchman.
- Reagins is "not really concerned" about having a limited number of lefties in the bullpen, after the Halos lost Darren Oliver to the Rangers this offseason.
- Wren believes the Braves have "improved quite a bit" offensively, and talked up Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Troy Glaus.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
We've finished all the AL clubs in our Offseason In Review series. The Braves kick off the NL today.
Major League Signings
- Tim Hudson, SP: three years, $28MM. Includes $9MM club option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout
- Billy Wagner, RP: one year, $7MM. Includes $6.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. Vests with 50 games finished
- Takashi Saito, RP: one year, $3.2MM.
- Troy Glaus, 1B: one year, $1.75MM.
- Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF: one year, $1MM.
- Juan Abreu, P: one year, $400K (estimated).
- Total spend: $41.35MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Edward Salcedo, Scott Proctor, Chris Resop, Joe Thurston, Brent Clevlen, Mitch Jones
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Jesse Chavez for RP Rafael Soriano
- Acquired OF Melky Cabrera, P Arodys Vizcaino, P Michael Dunn, and $500K for SP Javier Vazquez and RP Boone Logan
Notable Losses
- Garret Anderson, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Javier Vazquez, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Buddy Carlyle, Brandon Jones, Greg Norton, Boone Logan
Summary
The Braves entered the offseason with several significant free agents: Hudson, LaRoche, Soriano, and Gonzalez. GM Frank Wren led off by signing Hudson at a fair price. He then guaranteed $10.2MM to Wagner and Saito, $9MM less than Gonzalez and Soriano ultimately required. Much is riding on the elbows of the 38-year-old Wagner and 40-year-old Saito, yet the new back end of the Braves bullpen doesn't seem riskier than Gonzalez and Soriano. This was a gamble worth taking, and the Braves also came away with Chavez and the #35 and #53 picks in the 2010 draft (while losing #20 to Boston).
The pitching additions left little in the budget for other moves. Wren opted for risk/affordability at first base. Johnson was let go for nothing, though Prado may match him at the league minimum. The Hudson signing, in the view of the Braves, necessitated the trade of Derek Lowe or Vazquez. The Braves were willing to eat $9MM of the $45MM owed to Lowe, but found no takers. Instead, Vazquez was traded in a cost-cutting move that makes hurts the Braves' rotation in 2010.
Leaving Logan out of the equation, the Vazquez trade saved the Braves $8.9MM. When was the last time you saw a legitimate pitching surplus? Odds are that Vazquez will be significantly better than the Braves' worst starter in 2010. If the Braves fall two or three wins short in the NL East, we have to point to this cost-cutting move. To be fair, the Braves' front five still looks excellent.
Their lineup carries plenty of risk with Glaus and Chipper Jones. But if healthy this has to be one of the NL's best offenses – Matt Diaz carries their worst projected OBP at .349. Cabrera doesn't seem like the outfield addition the Braves needed, but can you name an affordable free agent who'd match his .296/.367/.441 projection with acceptable defense?
You could make the argument that every team would be better with an extra $11.5MM spent, and the Braves just didn't have the budget to keep Vazquez. This one stings, though, since it wasn't a win-now trade. The deal, and the Braves' offseason, will look better if Cabrera has a big year. He's part of a strong-looking club that should contend all season.
Odds & Ends: Ruiz, Braves, Offenses, Yankees
Links for Thursday…
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure tweets that Jose Julio Ruiz has changed agents, which will likely complicate any negotiations. The Red Sox were reported hot on the Cuban defector's trail.
- Tim Marchman of SI.com ranks MLB's 30 general managers, from Andrew Friedman to Dayton Moore.
- Moore tells Doug Tucker of the AP that he's confident he'll continue to build the team's farm system. The Royals have tripled their budget in Latin America under Moore.
- Stephania Bell of ESPN.com explains the injury risks that come with Billy Wagner, Troy Glaus, Takashi Saito and Tim Hudson, four players the Braves signed or extended this offseason.
- I've ranked the American League offenses over at RotoAuthority, using CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.
- Jack Curry tweets that no one has called the Yankees yet about Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre, and GM Brian Cashman won't deal until late spring anyway.
- Milton Bradley told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that "obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me." Bradley says the Cubs tried to make him a player he's not, expecting 30 home runs.
- Cubs manager Lou Piniella said on ESPN's Waddle & Silvy show that he'll determine his future after the season.
Odds & Ends: Yankees, Braves, Cardinals
March goes in like a lion, but the lion is cut when the rosters get trimmed to 25…
- Benjamin Kabak at River Avenue Blues takes a look at how the Yankees can include an ownership stake in Derek Jeter's next contract.
- Former Yankee Melky Cabrera is also in the news, with MLB.com's Mark Bowman detailing how his game translates in the National League. As should surprise no one who has watched both leagues lately, the move figures to help Melky.
- Brian Walton of the St. Louis Globe-Democrat has a rundown of the Cardinals' 21 new signings from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Tops among the new signings appears to be Amauris Capellan, an outfielder who has drawn comparisons to Raul Mondesi.
- Taiwan Baseball has an update on Min-Tzu Chen, an outfielder-turned-pitcher three months ago, who is now sporting a fastball at 90-93 MPH. According to the site, the Royals and Padres have both made offers in the $150K-$200K range.
- Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe thinks the Red Sox may have found something special in offseason acquisition Boof Bonser.
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Upton, Mets, Gallardo
Some links as Spring Training games get started…
- Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports writes that Aroldis Chapman may be the most well-known of the recent Cuban defectors hoping to make an MLB impact, but that he's hardly the only one.
- The Hendricks brothers, who represent Chapman now, reached a settlement with API, who used to represent the lefty, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com.
- The Justin Upton deal should work for both sides, writes Tyler Hissey of Around the Majors. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic warns that there's some risk involved from Arizona's perspective, and wonders if B.J. Upton's recent struggles factored in his brother's decision to sign an extension now.
- The Mets have called the Padres about Adrian Gonzalez, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter).
- Yovani Gallardo's agent had some talks with the Brewers about a long-term deal last spring, but nothing came of them, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets that Joe Crede is hitting, throwing and waiting for a job offer.
- Red Sox Assistant GM Ben Cherington tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com that the club has catchers in the upper minors who are "capable of coming up and playing." From defensive catchers like Dusty Brown and Mark Wagner to the powerful Luis Exposito, the team has potential behind the plate, though it doesn't have certainty for 2011.
- R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs wonders if Eric Hinske will encourage Jason Heyward to sign a long-term deal, like Evan Longoria did a couple springs ago.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that another team offered Noel Arguelles more than the $7MM bonus he will receive from the Royals.
Odds & Ends: Hernandez, Zito, Mateo
Some news items from around the majors on this Monday night…
- MLB.com’s Bill Chastain profiles left-hander Carlos Hernandez, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2004 and is trying to return with Tampa Bay.
- While it’s very unlikely that Barry Zito will live up to his $126MM contract, Craig Calcaterra of NBCSports.com notes that the left-hander is still a solid starter.
- The Braves have no interest in teenage prospect Wagner Mateo, reports MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Mateo was originally signed by St. Louis last summer but the Cardinals voided the contract due to concerns over Mateo’s eyesight.
- The signings of Jason Jennings and Brett Tomko shouldn’t cause any concern about the health of other key pitchers on the Oakland staff, says Tom Singer of MLB.com.
- Philadelphia has become a prime destination for free agents and stars looking to be traded, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. Back-to-back NL pennants and a World Series title will tend to do that.
- Chris Young struggled in his first season of a five-year, $28MM deal with Arizona and has yet to have a true breakout year after three seasons as a major league regular. John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com, however, thinks it’s too early to write Young off.
- MLB.com’s Bill Ladson answers fan questions on a variety of topics, including how prospect Chris Marrero (Washington’s first-round pick in the 2006 June Amateur Draft) could be affected if the Nationals re-sign Adam Dunn.
- Speaking of mailbags, Baseball America’s Jim Callis answers some fan questions about prospects and also looks ahead to the 2011 June Amateur Draft.
Red Sox Still In On Ruiz
Earlier this week, the Blue Jays appeared to be taking the lead in the race to sign Cuban first base prospect Jose Julio Ruiz. But don't count out the Red Sox yet, says ESPN's Jorge Arangure, Jr. in a recent blog post.
Arangure cites a "source knowledgeable about the situation" as saying that the Red Sox are still actively pursuing Ruiz as a low-cost preemptive replacement for David Ortiz, and that the interest is mutual. Ruiz is eyeing Boston, the source says, because he believes he would soon have the opportunity to take Ortiz's spot, even if it means playing in the minors in the short term. This seemingly conflicts with Ruiz's agent Jorge Luis Toca's quote earlier this month that "the idea is to find a team where he'll have the best opportunity to rise the quickest," but on the other hand, Ortiz's slow start in 2009 didn't make him look like a huge roadblock. The team holds a $12.5MM club option for Ortiz in 2011, which if declined could make for an easy transition.
The Red Sox are said to be looking at the 25-year-old defector much in the same way that they looked at Ortiz when he was released by the Twins at age 28: a big (Ortiz is 6'4"; Ruiz is 6'3") lefty masher whose stats "augur an eventual breakout season." To wit, Arangure quotes the Latin American scouting director of a National League team as saying, "Ruiz is a David Ortiz-looking dude." Ruiz was also favorably compared to Carlos Delgado when he first defected in June of 2009.
Of course, none of this is to rule out the possibility that the Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Arangure quotes "sources close to" the Padres first baseman as saying that while the Red Sox are not actively pursuing him at the moment, Gonzalez considers a trade to Boston "inevitable."
Other links from the threshold between major league baseball and world baseball…
- The Braves signed 21-year-old Nicaraguan shortstop Ivan Marin to a minor league contract on February 10, reports Oscar Gonzalez at La Prensa.
- Cuban pitcher Juan Yasser Serrano held a private tryout for the Rays last Wednesday, according to the Cuban baseball blog Las Avispas.
- Former major leaguer Randall Simon has signed with the Rockford Riverhawks of the independent Northern League, reports baseballdeworld.com. Simon hasn't logged a big league PA since 2004, but he has remained active in Europe, most recently in the Italian Baseball League and for the upstart Dutch national team in last year's World Baseball Classic.
Odds & Ends: Beckett, Jones, Cust, Cubs
A roundup of some news on this Thursday night…
- In an interview on CSNNE's Sports Tonight show, Josh Beckett said he would "probably not" negotiate with the Red Sox about a new contract once the season begins. WEEI's Rob Bradford reports on Beckett's appearance here.
- Bobby Cox thinks Chipper Jones will play out the final three years on his contract, reports David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Jones was hinting at retirement last fall in the wake of his disappointing (for him) 2009 campaign, but thus far in spring training, O'Brien reports that Jones has been nothing but enthusiastic about Atlanta's chances this season.
- In an interview with Jane Lee of MLB.com, Jack Cust confirms what we all thought about this winter's crop of free agents at outfield and DH: "it just wasn't a very good market unless you're Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. Even for those guys, I don't think the interest level was as high as they may have thought it to be. Unless you're one of those big dudes, you take what you can get."
- Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com says that the Cubs have some interest in Luke Gregerson and/or Jason Frasor.
- Jon Paul Morosi tweets that there is "not much new" going on with the negotiations between Joe Mauer and the Twins.
- MLB.com's Anthony DiComo reports that Alex Rodriguez offered Johnny Damon some free agency advice this winter. Oh, so THAT's why it took so long for Damon to sign…
- We had heard about Toronto's possible interest in Jose Julio Ruiz, and MLB.com's Jordan Bastian now reports that the Jays may be looking at another Cuban prospect: Adeiny Hechevarria.
- Dick Kaegel of MLB.com reports that the Royals agreed to terms with Josh Fields and Kila Ka'aihue on one-year contracts. Terms were not disclosed, but Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tweeted that neither deal is expected to exceed $500K.
Odds & Ends: Halladay, House, Felipe Lopez
Links for Wednesday…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the White Sox and Blue Jays discussed Dan Hudson and Tyler Flowers in a potential Roy Halladay deal, but the Sox weren't on Doc's list.
- The Braves signed J.R. House to a minor league deal, reports Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. House, 30, hit .251/.297/.352 for the Royals' Triple A club in '09 while catching 101 games.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports explores Felipe Lopez's reputation as a lazy player, something former teammate Mike Rivera denies.
- Baseball America's Ben Badler has four Dominican signings, by the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, and Rangers.
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and GM John Mozeliak are signed only through 2010, but neither seems concerned (Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporting).