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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Willy Adames' market,  where the Royals can look for offense, what it might cost to sign Tanner Scott, Cardinals' trade possibilities, if the D-Backs can re-sign Christian Walker, the upcoming playoff games, and much more.

 

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Phillies Notes: Outfield, Hoffman, Coaching Staff

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The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.

Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.

Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.

The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.

Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.

Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.

If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.

A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.

After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.

Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”

Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.

Latest On White Sox’s Managerial Search

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Finding a manager is one of the first orders of offseason business for the White Sox. Chicago dismissed Pedro Grifol in early August. Grady Sizemore finished the season on an interim basis. While Sox GM Chris Getz left the door ajar for Sizemore to take the full-time job, Getz had previously indicated that the team was likely to go outside the organization for a solution.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Sox’s early list of targets includes Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso, and former Angels skipper Phil Nevin. That’s not an exhaustive set of candidates, nor is it clear if anyone from that trio will actually interview.

Nevin is the only one of that group with previous managerial experience. The former All-Star infielder took over the Halos on an interim basis when Los Angeles fired Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Angels signed Nevin to a one-year extension covering the ’23 campaign. They decided not to re-sign him last winter on the heels of a 73-89 season. Nevin interviewed for the Padres’ vacancy that eventually went to Mike Shildt. He did not coach this past season.

Venable and Descalso are more recently retired players who have long been viewed as potential future managers. Venable had spent time as Alex Cora’s bench coach with the Red Sox before accepting the associate manager role under Bruce Bochy in 2022. He has held that position in Texas for the past two years. Venable won a World Series ring during his first season in Arlington. He took himself out of consideration for managerial roles early last winter, reportedly declining a chance to interview with the Mets for the job which went to Carlos Mendoza.

While Venable has been on coaching staffs for the past seven years, Descalso has just one season of MLB coaching experience. The former Cardinals infielder took the bench coach role with St. Louis last offseason. He spent this year as Oli Marmol’s top lieutenant and has also worked in the Diamondbacks’ front office since retiring as a player in 2021.

Red Sox Making Multiple Coaching Changes

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The Red Sox are moving on from six coaches, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. According to Speier, the departures from Alex Cora’s staff include first base coach Andy Fox, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coach Luis Ortiz, mental skills coach Rey Fuentes, trainer Ben Chadwick and bullpen catcher Mani Martinez.

Fox was promoted to first base coach this past season. He’d previously spent time as Boston’s field coordinator. Fox had been in the organization for more than a decade. He played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues as a utility infielder, spending the bulk of that time with the Diamondbacks and Marlins.

Ortiz, who briefly appeared in the majors with the Red Sox during the mid-1990s, had been an assistant hitting coach for the last three years. Ortiz held the lead hitting job on Chris Woodward’s staffs with the Rangers between 2018-21. Ben Rosenthal has overlapped with Ortiz as an assistant to primary hitting coach Peter Fatse in Boston.

The Sox tabbed Walker as bullpen coach during the 2020-21 offseason. He’d spent the shortened season as an assistant pitching coach. Boston’s bullpen has generally been middle-of-the-pack over the past four years. The relief group was a disappointment this season, finishing 24th with a 4.39 earned run average and 23rd in strikeout percentage (21.9%). The bullpen cratered down the stretch. Only the Nationals’ relievers had a lower strikeout rate in the second half. No team had a worse ERA after the All-Star Break than the Sox’s 5.45, while Boston relievers led MLB with 16 blown leads.

That’s not all on the coaching staff, of course. The front office’s deadline pickups of Lucas Sims and Luis García didn’t work. Kenley Jansen missed most of September, while Chris Martin was shelved for the bulk of July. Nevertheless, the bullpen was one of the biggest factors in the Sox falling out of the Wild Card race, so they’ll look for a new voice. Strengthening the group in front of Rule 5 success story Justin Slaten and a hopefully health Liam Hendriks should be an offseason priority for Craig Breslow and his staff.

No Extension Talks To Date Between Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have not had any in-season extension discussions with Teoscar Hernández, the slugger told reporters before tonight’s possible elimination game (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Hernández doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks, saying that he’s focused on the season and hasn’t given free agency much thought.

Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.

Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.

[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]

Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.

They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros overcame a slow start to pull away with another division title. They weren't able to extend their remarkable streak of seven consecutive trips to the AL Championship Series, as the red-hot Tigers swept them at Minute Maid Park. The attention immediately turns to the potential loss of their longtime third baseman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional financial commitments

  • Owe released first baseman José Abreu $19.5MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $142MM
Total future commitments: $416MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urquidy, McCormick, Murfee

Free Agents

The Astros remain firmly in win-now mode but are facing the potential free agent departure of a core player. That's a situation they've successfully navigated before. Houston has allowed Carlos Correa and George Springer to walk without taking a step back. Are they prepared to do the same with Alex Bregman?

That's the biggest question of Houston's offseason. General manager Dana Brown has said time and again that he hopes to keep Bregman. Multiple Astros players have gone on record talking about his importance both on the field and in the clubhouse. The financial picture doesn't point toward a reunion being likely, though.

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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Division Series?

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Last night, MLBTR readers weighed in on the National League Division Series. With both series knotted up 1-1 at the time, readers heavily favored the Padres to upset the Dodgers while giving a slight edge to the Phillies to take down the Mets. The lower seeds each prevailed at home tonight to put the NL’s top two teams on the brink of elimination.

Tuesday was a travel day in the American League. Those series are also squared at a game apiece, providing an opportunity to check in on those sets. The Guardians destroyed the Tigers in Game 1, but Kerry Carpenter hit a game-winning homer in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase to give the Tigers a 3-0 win in the second game. The Royals rebounded after dropping a back-and-forth contest against the Yankees in Game 1. Kansas City rode a four-run fourth inning to a relatively easy 4-2 victory in Game 2.

Cleveland and Detroit will kick off play on Wednesday afternoon. The Guardians are turning to Alex Cobb in what will be just his fourth appearance in a Cleveland uniform. Cleveland landed Cobb from the Giants at the deadline to address a rotation that was the team’s biggest weakness. Cobb had spent the first few months of the season on the IL rehabbing last fall’s hip surgery. Blisters and a cracked fingernail on his throwing hand limited him to a trio of regular season appearances. Cobb pitched well in that brief action, allowing five earned runs with 10 strikeouts and three walks over 16 1/3 innings. This will be his first game in almost six weeks.

The Tigers haven’t announced a starter to oppose Cobb. Detroit has mostly ridden bullpen games behind ace Tarik Skubal and second starter Reese Olson. They’ll probably have Olson lined up for Game 4 with Skubal on tap if the series gets a decider. Tomorrow is likely to be an all hands on deck affair. Cleveland could go back to respective Games 1 and 2 starters Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd after tomorrow.

There’s a more conventional pitching matchup in Kansas City. The hosts will turn to Seth Lugo, who turned in an even 3.00 earned run average across 206 2/3 innings during his first season with the Royals. The potential Cy Young finalist tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Baltimore in the clincher of last week’s Wild Card series — the first postseason start of Lugo’s career. New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who’ll be starting a playoff game for the first time himself. The former first-round pick had a 2.85 ERA over 16 starts in the regular season. He lost three months midseason to a lat strain but was excellent when healthy.

New York and Kansas City already list Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha as the respective probable starters for Game 4. Neither team has announced its pitcher for a potential Game 5. That’d likely be a rematch of Monday’s pitching matchup between K.C. ace Cole Ragans and Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodón with both pitchers on regular rest by Saturday.

Which teams will vie for the ALCS next week?

What Will Be The Result Of CLE/DET?
Tigers in 5. 35.72% (1,924 votes)
Guardians in 5. 31.19% (1,680 votes)
Tigers in 4. 19.48% (1,049 votes)
Guardians in 4. 13.61% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 5,386

 

What Will Be The Result Of NYY/KC?
Royals in 5. 31.14% (1,564 votes)
Yankees in 5. 29.19% (1,466 votes)
Yankees in 4. 21.74% (1,092 votes)
Royals in 4. 17.94% (901 votes)
Total Votes: 5,023

 

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds hoped to make the jump from underdogs with an exciting young core to legitimate playoff contenders. It didn't happen this year. With a splash managerial hire and returns to health from most of the rotation, expectations will again be high going into 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $47MM through 2028 (including buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $30MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
  • Jonathan India, 2B: $7.05MM through 2025 (eligible for arbitration in '26)

Option Decisions

  • RHP Nick Martinez holds $12MM player option (no buyout)
  • RHP Emilio Pagán holds $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
  • Team, RHP Jakob Junis hold $8MM mutual option; Brewers are responsible for $1MM of the $3MM buyout
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($500K buyout)
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on C Luke Maile ($500K buyout)

2025 financial commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $39.05MM
Total future commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $95.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: France, Antone, Espinal, Fraley, Wynns, Gibaut

Free Agents

The Reds have begun their offseason with a bang. As the season wound down, Cincinnati dismissed sixth-year skipper David Bell. That wasn't especially surprising with the team en route to a 77-85 finish that represented a five-game drop relative to last season. Bell's replacement was a stunner. The Reds brought Terry Francona out of what proved to be a one-year retirement. Landing one of the sport's most respected managers should renew optimism going into 2025.

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Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

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Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
Padres in 5. 39.05% (3,485 votes)
Padres in 4. 32.72% (2,920 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 23.80% (2,124 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 4.44% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 8,925

 

What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
Phillies in 5. 40.99% (3,239 votes)
Mets in 5. 27.08% (2,140 votes)
Mets in 4. 19.75% (1,561 votes)
Phillies in 4. 12.17% (962 votes)
Total Votes: 7,902

 

Rays Likely To Explore Catching Market

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The Rays dropped to fourth place in the AL East, finishing the season at 80-82. After missing the postseason for the first time since 2018, Tampa Bay baseball operations president Erik Neander spoke Friday about the need for more offense. He specifically pointed to catcher as an area where the club must improve.

“We’ve got to find a way to get more output out of that position than what we got this year,” Neander said (link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). “We’ve got to find a way to be better back there, without question, and that’ll be a priority in terms of where our mental energy goes throughout this winter.”

While that’s not quite a definitive declaration the Rays will add from outside the organization, it’s clear they’ll examine the market. Tampa Bay had one of the lightest-hitting catching groups in the majors. The Rays got a .194/.272/.291 batting line out of the position. Only the White Sox had a lower batting average. Tampa Bay was 24th in on-base percentage and 28th (better than just the White Sox and Marlins) in slugging.

The Rays opened the season with René Pinto as their starter. That didn’t last long. Tampa Bay optioned Pinto after 19 games. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he hit .191 with a .257 on-base mark. Ben Rortvedt, whom the Rays acquired from the Yankees on the eve of Opening Day, ended up taking the majority of the playing time. The lefty hitter turned in a middling .228/.317/.303 slash over 328 plate appearances. Tampa Bay had Alex Jackson backing Rortvedt up from early May until designating him for assignment in September. Jackson hit .122 in a career-high 58 games. September call-up Logan Driscoll also struggled in his limited MLB work.

Like most clubs, the Rays have generally prioritized defense at the position. Rortvedt graded reasonably well as a receiver. Statcast credited him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. He also showed strong pop times, although his 16.2% caught stealing rate was subpar. Rortvedt presumably showed enough to hold an offseason roster spot. He’s out of minor league options, so the Rays would need to keep him in the majors or make him available to other teams to open the season. Driscoll still has a full slate of options and seems likely to start next season in the minors.

Jackson already elected minor league free agency after clearing waivers last month. Pinto remains on the 40-man roster but may have a tenuous hold on that spot. He’ll be out of options next season. It’s unlikely the team runs things back with a tandem of Rortvedt and Pinto; the latter might find himself on waivers at some point this winter.

The free agent catching class is light at the top. That’s not a huge issue for the Rays, who probably wouldn’t have made a huge splash even if the market were stronger. There are a handful of right-handed hitting backstops who should be available on one- or two-year deals. Kyle Higashioka, Carson Kelly, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings (whose deal with Colorado contains a mutual option) and Elias Díaz are among the top options. Anyone from that group could be a realistic target to share time with the lefty-hitting Rortvedt. Each should at least provide more offense than Jackson managed in that role.

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