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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Luis Robert's trade value, late-game bullpen possibilities for the Yankees and Cubs, the Astros' decision to move on from José Abreu, Alex Bregman's free agent projection, the cost to extend Tarik Skubal and much more.

 

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Yankees’ Everson Pereira To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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June 14: Pereira will undergo UCL surgery, SNY’s Andy Martino reports. That clearly indicates a tear of some degree in the outfielder’s ulnar collateral ligament. The Yankees have yet to formally announce the news, though when they do, the team will presumably provide more details and an expected timeline for Pereira’s return in 2025.

Martino suggests that Pereira could undergo the same type of internal brace procedure that teammate Jasson Dominguez required last year, which would come with a shorter timeline for recovery than a full reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery). Dominguez had his surgery in September and was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A earlier this week — a period of about nine months. If Pereira is on a similar trajectory, he could conceivably be ready at some point during spring training 2025.

June 13: The season is over for Yankees depth outfielder Everson Pereira. The 23-year-old has been on the seven-day minor league injured list since May 30. As noted by Conor Foley of the YES Network (X link), New York’s Triple-A affiliate announced this week that they’ve placed Pereira on the full-season IL. It’s not clear what the injury is or whether he requires any kind of surgery, but his season comes to a close after 40 Triple-A contests.

Pereira and the recently optioned Jasson Domínguez are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster behind the MLB quartet of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham. Pereira would have had a hard time cracking that group even if he were healthy, but it’s not ideal to lose another four months of development reps. Pereira garnered attention towards the back half of Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America and ESPN when he earned his first MLB call last August. The Venezuela native was coming off a huge showing between the top two levels of the minor leagues.

His stock has dipped since that point. Pereira couldn’t run with his initial major league opportunity. The Yankees played him as their primary left fielder once they’d fallen out of the playoff race in the final month. He hit .151/.233/.194 without a home run while striking out 40 times in 103 trips to the plate. Between Pereira’s rough September and Domínguez’s late-season Tommy John procedure, the Yankees went into the offseason needing to overhaul the outfield around Judge. They acquired Soto, Verdugo and Grisham to push Pereira towards the back of the depth chart.

Pereira entered the 2024 season as a divisive player on prospect lists. Keith Law of the Athletic ranked him only behind Domínguez in the Yankees system and kept him in the back half of his overall Top 100. Pereira landed sixth in the organization and in the top 100 overall at Baseball America but dropped to 17th on Eric Longenhagen’s write-up of the Yankee system at FanGraphs. Evaluators were unanimous in their praise for Pereira’s raw power and athleticism but divided as to whether he’d make enough contact to be a regular.

His first six weeks of 2024 were more of the same. Pereira drilled 10 homers with a .265/.346/.512 batting line over 182 plate appearances for Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre. He fanned in nearly a third of his trips to the plate, though, pushing his strikeout rate to 29.9% in 150 games at the top two levels of the minor leagues. Pereira’s injury history is also now a mounting concern. An ankle injury cut his 2019 season short and he was limited to 49 games in 2021 (after losing the ’20 season because of the pandemic).

New York added Pereira to their 40-man roster during the 2021-22 offseason. He has spent time on optional assignment in each of the following three seasons. Most players are out of options, and therefore can no longer be sent down without first clearing waivers, after being optioned in three separate seasons. Teams are sometimes granted a fourth option year for players who have missed substantial time. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees pursue an extra option on Pereira next offseason, though they won’t know for certain whether that’s in play until the winter. He’ll continue to count against their 40-man roster while he’s on the minor league injured list.

Astros Could Pursue Multiple Starting Pitching Additions

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The Astros are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. Houston has not only made the playoffs in each year since 2016, they’ve won at least one round in every season and picked up a pair of World Series. This year’s squad is seven games under .500 halfway through June, carrying a 31-38 record that has them above only the Angels, A’s and White Sox in the American League.

Houston has a franchise-high payroll and an aging core that has had ample success. They’re uninterested in giving up on 2024. General manager Dana Brown said at the start of the month that he “(didn’t) see any scenario” where the team sells. Brown indicated he expected to add at the deadline despite their current place in the standings. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the team would like to add two starting pitchers before the deadline.

The rotation has been arguably the team’s biggest weakness, so it’s a straightforward target. They’ve been hit hard by injuries that have exposed a lack of upper minors depth. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have yet to make their season debuts after undergoing arm surgeries in 2023. The Astros lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgeries within the past couple weeks. Those procedures were announced after Brown declared that he couldn’t envision selling, but both pitchers were headed for testing at the time. The GM presumably knew that season-ending surgery was at least a realistic possibility.

That leaves Houston with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Verlander are assured of season-long rotation spots so long as they’re healthy. Hunter Brown has righted the ship after a terrible April with a 3.05 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate over his past seven starts. Blanco has a 2.67 ERA while punching out nearly 24% of opponents in 12 outings.

It’s a reasonable front four, particularly if Brown continues pitching like an upper mid-rotation arm. The depth remains perilously thin. Arrighetti has had an up-and-down rookie campaign, allowing 5.33 earned runs per nine over his first 11 MLB starts. His run prevention has improved over the past month. Arrighetti has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. He hasn’t been especially efficient, though, issuing multiple walks in all 11 appearances. The 24-year-old has shown the stuff to miss bats against big league hitters, yet his debut season hasn’t been seamless.

Even if Houston isn’t actively looking to nudge Arrighetti from the starting five, they’d be ill-prepared to handle any other injuries. J.P. France is on the minor league injured list. Eric Lauer has allowed 14 runs in 15 Triple-A innings since signing a minor league deal. Arrighetti was the only upper minors pitching prospect whom most evaluators regarded highly in a thin farm system. Garcia and McCullers could return around the trade deadline. There’s some level of risk with both pitchers finishing rehabs from lengthy absences — particularly McCullers, who has an extended injury history.

It’s not clear how highly the Astros might aim in their search for starting pitching. It’s unlikely they’ll land multiple mid-rotation or better arms, particularly without a ton of top talent to shop from the farm system (and a probable need to acquire first base help). Landing one mid-rotation starter and an innings-eating depth arm could be attainable. It’s debatable whether the Astros should subtract from their minor league pipeline to upgrade the 2024 roster — MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued for Houston to be more amenable to dealing away veterans in a piece for Front Office subscribers this evening — but the front office is clearly still looking for short-term help.

Garrett Crochet could be the prize of this summer’s rotation trade market. The White Sox would need to be blown away to deal him with two more seasons of club control. They’re likelier to trade Erick Fedde, who is under contract through 2025. The Marlins will probably move Jesús Luzardo and could trade one of Trevor Rogers or Braxton Garrett. The likes of Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill could also come available closer to the deadline.

Dodgers Acquire Jose Hernandez From Pirates

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The Dodgers announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash. Los Angeles transferred Ryan Brasier to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Pittsburgh designated Hernandez for assignment earlier in the week when they claimed Dennis Santana off waivers.

Los Angeles took that opportunity to bring Hernandez back to his original organization. The Dodgers signed the Dominican-born southpaw as an amateur in May 2016. Hernandez spent the next six-plus seasons in the L.A. farm system, topping out at Double-A Tulsa. He tallied plenty of punchouts in the low minors but never consistently found the strike zone. The Dodgers left him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2022 season, allowing other clubs to take a flier in the Rule 5 draft.

Pittsburgh selected Hernandez with the third Rule 5 pick that December (behind Thaddeus Ward and another former Dodger farmhand, Ryan Noda). The Bucs secured his long-term contractual rights by carrying him in the MLB bullpen for all of last season. Hernandez showed the ability to miss bats at the MLB level, fanning 27.8% of opposing hitters behind a 12.5% swinging strike rate. He walked just under 10% of batters faced and surrendered nine homers in 50 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.97 earned run average.

The Pirates gained the right to option Hernandez to the minors after his first MLB campaign. They shuttled him between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis for the season’s first couple months. Hernandez tossed 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts and walks apiece at the big league level. He has been tagged for 12 runs over 15 1/3 Triple-A frames despite punching out 21 of the 75 hitters he’s faced (a solid 28% rate).

It was moderately surprising to see the Bucs move on from Hernandez not long after they satisfied the Rule 5 requirements. His velocity has been slightly down, perhaps contributing to the move. As a rookie, Hernandez averaged 82.9 MPH on his slider (which he uses as his primary pitch) and 94.6 MPH on his fastball. Those speeds were respectively at 81.6 MPH and 93.1 MPH during his major league work this year.

Hernandez has just over one year of service and is in his first of three minor league option years. The Dodgers can keep him in Triple-A Oklahoma City for the foreseeable future if he holds his 40-man roster spot.

The team essentially had an open roster spot thanks to Brasier’s injury. The veteran righty has been out since April 28 after suffering a significant strain of his right calf. He has yet to begin a minor league rehab stint. Brasier will be eligible for reinstatement two weeks from now — the 60-day minimum is backdated to his initial IL placement — but it’s not clear if he’ll be ready by that point.

How Will The Rays Approach The Deadline?

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The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.

While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.

With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.

All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.

There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.

Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.

Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.

While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.

The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.

Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.

Bryan Woo’s MRI Comes Back Clean

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The Mariners were dealt a bit of a scare yesterday when Bryan Woo was scratched from his scheduled start. Seattle sent him for imaging on his forearm. The team can breathe a sigh of relief after the MRI results came back, as general manager Justin Hollander told reporters that the tests were “perfectly clean” (via the MLB.com injury tracker).

It looks as if Woo will avoid the injured list entirely. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that the right-hander could retake his spot in the Seattle rotation next week. The M’s turned to left-hander Jhonathan Diaz on short notice last night. Bryce Miller took the ball this evening, while Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are on track to pitch through Saturday. Woo’s spot in the rotation would come back up on Sunday. Diaz would be on regular rest, while the M’s are now carrying right-hander Emerson Hancock on their taxi squad in case he’s needed for a spot start.

Even if the Mariners need an outing from Hancock to get through the next few days, the news on Woo is a major boost. The second-year hurler opened the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation. (He also missed two weeks last summer on account of forearm inflammation.) Woo returned in mid-May and has turned in brilliant results through six starts. He has allowed 1.07 earned runs per nine over 33 2/3 innings. Woo’s 20.2% strikeout rate is right around average. He has shown impeccable control, only walking two of the 119 hitters he’s faced.

Woo is the nominal fifth starter in a Seattle rotation that’s arguably the best in the majors. Hancock has been the M’s top depth option, taking the ball seven times. The former #6 overall pick has struggled to a 5.24 ERA in 34 1/3 frames, striking out 15.4% of opponents.

Blaze Alexander Getting More Reps At Third Base For D-Backs

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Blaze Alexander is starting at third base for the Diamondbacks tonight against Angels righty José Soriano, pushing Eugenio Suárez to the bench. It’s only Alexander’s third start at the hot corner, but that’ll be a more frequent occurrence.

Manager Torey Lovullo told the Arizona beat that Alexander was going to pick up increased playing time at third base (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Lovullo stopped short of calling it a benching for Suárez but he acknowledged tonight is “day number one of a little bit of a change” in how playing time is split.

“I’m very curious about Blaze,” Lovullo said. “Offensively, he’s been playing at a very high level. The defense has been improving rapidly. I just felt like it was time to give him a few more opportunities, a few more reps.” Alexander has been in the lineup for 38 of Arizona’s 67 games. He picked up 16 starts at shortstop, eight games at second base and got 12 nods as the designated hitter along with his pair of third base starts.

The D-Backs reinstated Geraldo Perdomo from the injured list last night. He resumes his role as the everyday shortstop, while Ketel Marte is locked in at second base. Joc Pederson serves as the designated hitter against right-handed pitching. That leaves third base as the only spot for Alexander to get reps, unless the D-Backs wanted to use him on the short side of a platoon with Pederson at DH.

Alexander, 25, has managed decent numbers in his debut campaign. He carries a .279/.345/.403 line over 142 plate appearances. Alexander’s batted ball metrics aren’t aligned with his bottom line output. He’s putting the ball on the ground half the time he puts it in play, and a .371 average on balls in play has masked a 26.1% strikeout rate. Alexander has had a stark platoon divide. He’s hitting .217/.280/.290 over 75 plate appearances against right-handed pitching; he has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .350/.418/.533 slash in 67 trips.

While Alexander has played fairly well, the D-Backs wouldn’t have gotten him more third base reps if not for Suárez’s disappointing year. He’s hitting .197/.263/.312 across 262 plate appearances. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote over the weekend that the D-Backs were open to trade possibilities on Suárez, though it’d be difficult to offload much of his $12MM salary. Nightengale suggested that Arizona would curtail Suárez’s playing time if he sticks on the roster, and it indeed seems that’ll come to pass.

The D-Backs sent backup catcher Seby Zavala and hard-throwing reliever Carlos Vargas, who has spent the season in Triple-A, to Seattle for Suárez last November. The biggest appeal for the M’s was offloading the final year of Suárez’s contract. Arizona also owes him a $2MM buyout on a $15MM club option that’ll very likely be declined next offseason.

Rangers Reinstate Brock Burke, Outright Derek Hill

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The Rangers announced they’ve reinstated lefty reliever Brock Burke from the 60-day injured list. Texas optioned Grant Anderson to Triple-A Round Rock in a corresponding move. The Rangers already had an opening on the 40-man roster after designating outfielder Derek Hill for assignment last week. Texas announced tonight that Hill went unclaimed on waivers and was outrighted to Round Rock, though he has the right to elect free agency in lieu of the Triple-A assignment.

Burke suffered a fractured metacarpal in his non-throwing hand back in April. The southpaw punched a dugout wall in frustration after a poor outing. He underwent surgery and missed a couple months. Burke had an excellent 2022 campaign in which he threw 82 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball. Last year’s 4.37 mark was more pedestrian, and he gave up five runs in his first three frames this season. Burke rejoins Jacob Latz as lefty options for Bruce Bochy, though he’ll likely need to pitch his way back into the later innings.

Hill, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers and got added to their big league roster about three weeks ago. He got a small sample of work while on the roster, getting just ten plate appearances in five games, hitting .222/.300/.222 in those. Last week, the Rangers needed an extra infielder with Corey Seager day-to-day due to hamstring soreness. They recalled Davis Wendzel and nudged Hill out. Since Hill is out of options, they had to remove him from the 40-man entirely.

Any team acquiring him would have also had to plug him directly onto the active roster and it seems none of them were willing to do so. Since he has a previous career outright, he has the right to reject any outright assignment in favor of free agency. Should he explore that avenue, he should be able to find a minor league deal somewhere.

Hill hasn’t hit much in his big league career but he can provide value in others ways. Statcast considers his sprint speed to be in the 98th percentile this year and Hill has five Outs Above Average in his 746 1/3 outfield innings. It’s also possible there’s some upside at the plate since he’s had some good performances in the minors and was slashing .333/.387/.659 for Round Rock before getting called up this year.

Royals Place Hunter Renfroe On Injured List

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June 12: Further testing revealed that there is no fracture in Renfroe’s foot, tweets Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star. The issue appears to be a bone bruise. Renfroe will not require surgery.

June 11: The Royals announced they’ve placed Hunter Renfroe on the 10-day injured list. The veteran outfielder fractured his left big toe in last night’s loss to the Yankees. Kansas City also placed Adam Frazier on the bereavement list, recalling Nick Pratto and Drew Waters to take the vacated active roster spots.

Renfroe went for imaging today that’ll determine his recovery timeline, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). He’ll at least need a week and a half before he’s ready to return to MLB action. Renfroe had finally begun to find a groove, picking up seven hits (including two doubles and homers apiece) in six games this month. The 32-year-old still has a subpar .200/.273/.365 line over 187 plate appearances thanks to a frigid start to the season.

Despite the mediocre production, Renfroe has started 49 of the team’s 67 games in right field. Waters draws in there tonight against Marcus Stroman. The Royals haven’t gotten much out of any of their outfielders. Kyle Isbel (.219/.263/.338) and MJ Melendez (.162/.225/.341) have produced even less offensively than Renfroe has mustered.

The 25-year-old Waters is up for the first time this season. He has solid numbers for Triple-A Omaha, where he’s hitting .277/.350/.484 with seven homers through 214 plate appearances. That’s with a slightly elevated 26.6% strikeout rate, a problem for Waters throughout his career. The former second-round pick has punched out in nearly a third of his 446 MLB plate appearances. He owns a .231/.306/.402 line at the highest level.

Kansas City is 11 games over .500 and in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot despite the outfield. General manager J.J. Picollo acknowledged last week that the team could look outside the organization before the trade deadline. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Taylor Ward, Tommy Pham, Brent Rooker and Jesse Winker are among the likeliest outfielders to move by the end of next month.

The Orioles Need More Out Of Center Field

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The Orioles have been one of the sport's best teams. They've won two-thirds of their games and trail only the Phillies and Yankees in overall record. A lot has gone right -- from an MVP-caliber performance out of Gunnar Henderson to a Jordan Westburg breakout and quietly excellent performances from Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn (the latter of whom MLBTR's Steve Adams will spotlight later this week).

No team is perfect, though, and the O's go into deadline season with a couple questions. Their rotation depth has taken hits with the losses of John Means and Tyler Wells. The back end of the bullpen could be a bit shaky, especially if Danny Coulombe misses time with an elbow injury. Most surprisingly, the Orioles have had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Cedric Mullins was a top ten finisher in MVP voting a couple years back. He's now arguably the only question mark in one of the game's deepest lineups.

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