Jack Flaherty’s Strong Start To A Hopeful Rebound Year
Jack Flaherty was one of the more interesting mid-level starting pitchers in last year’s free agent class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t cement himself as an ace in the following few seasons. He struggled in nine starts during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy for his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs per nine between the Cardinals and Orioles.
That left both his camp and interested teams with questions once he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside play who had a realistic chance to turn in top-of-the-rotation results? If he felt that way, would he be best served taking a one-year deal and retesting the market next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents of note. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that contained another $1MM in performance bonuses.
It’s far too early to definitively declare the move a success, but his first month in Detroit has gone better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average through 36 innings isn’t especially noteworthy. Yet he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and has only issued five walks. His 16.4% swinging strike percentage would easily be a career high. It’s nearly six points up from last season.
Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty’s 34%. Jared Jones is the only pitcher getting more whiffs on a per-pitch basis. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s matchup against his old teammates with St. Louis.
There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hadn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in a six-game stretch at any point since his dazzling finish in 2019. While the ERA hasn’t caught up, Flaherty is dominating the strike zone in a way that he hasn’t for some time.
Flaherty’s stuff has ticked up slightly in the early going. His fastball is averaging 93.8 MPH, around half a mile per hour above where it sat in the previous two seasons. Perhaps more impactful has been the increased effectiveness of his breaking stuff. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing bats at a high level after it waned in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty half the time they’ve offered at his curveball. Flaherty is attacking hitters, particularly left-handers, with the breaking pitches a little more frequently than he has in previous seasons.
There’s a long way to go before he puts the questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he’ll face tougher opposition than he has gotten thus far. Of his six starts, four have come against teams (the White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) that have been subpar offensively. Only his two starts against the Twins have been against a club with an above-average team batting line. While Minnesota has been solid overall, they’re a high-strikeout offense.
Yet if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to overpower opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll play all of next season at 29, which is still atypically young for a free agent starter. He’d be a clear qualifying offer candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have much issue turning that down and landing a better multi-year pact.
Next winter’s class has a lot of high-variance but intriguing starters who could dramatically improve their stock in the next five months (i.e. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which could make him the #3 pitcher available behind Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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MLBTR writer Anthony Franco held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscriber
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MLB, Roku In Talks Regarding Sunday Morning Broadcasts
Major League Baseball is in “advanced talks” with the streaming company Roku about hosting Sunday morning broadcasts this season, writes Andrew Marchand of the Athletic. Joe Flint of the Wall Street Journal first reported two weeks ago (on X) that Roku was a potential option to carry the Sunday morning games.
MLB introduced the Sunday morning game as part of a streaming deal with Peacock in 2022. The NBC streaming service walked away from that agreement a few weeks ago. Marchand writes that Peacock wanted to renegotiate the fee to pay the league roughly $10MM per season, well below the annual $30MM price it paid for the first two years. It isn’t how clear how much the Roku talks, if agreed upon, would pay the league.
Whatever the specifics, MLB evidently finds the negotiations with Roku more promising than Peacock’s recent offers had been. If talks between MLB and Roku result in a deal, the service would have exclusive broadcasting rights to a Sunday game starting at either 11:30 am or shortly after noon EDT. No other games would start before 1:30 pm that day, so the Roku game would be the sole contest for a couple hours. Peacock had 19 such broadcasts last year ranging from late April to early September. Marchand writes that Roku may take a reduced number — at least in 2024 — because five weeks of the season have already passed.
MLB has an ongoing partnership with Apple TV+ that broadcasts two Friday night games exclusively on that streaming service. That deal reportedly pays the league $85MM per season. The Roku deal would certainly be far less lucrative, reflecting both the different time slot and increased uncertainty about the broadcasting landscape.
The Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy made the future of regional sports networks a large storyline of the offseason. While the conglomerate survived to carry local broadcasts for 12 teams in 2024, questions remain about its long-term viability.
Diamond found itself back in the news this week after failing to reach agreement on a new deal with Comcast (link via ESPN’s Alden González). The distributor pulled Diamond’s Bally Sports networks off its channels as a result, leaving its subscribers without access to in-market broadcasting in cities where Diamond has the rights. MLB’s RSN deals with Diamond prevent the league from lifting blackouts for fans affected by the Diamond/Comcast dispute. That leaves fans affected with little recourse but to hope for Comcast and Diamond to eventually work out an agreement.
Gavin Williams Resumes Throwing Program
Guardians starter Gavin Williams has resumed a throwing program after he was reevaluated on Wednesday, manager Stephen Vogt told reporters (X link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Williams came out of today’s throwing session without pain.
It’s an encouraging development after last week’s ominous news that Williams was being shut down after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The second-year righty has been on the injured list all season after battling elbow soreness in Spring Training. He received an anti-inflammation injection last week that seemingly addressed whatever was ailing him.
The Guardians will certainly proceed with caution as Williams builds arm strength. Cleveland hasn’t released a specific timeline when he might be ready to embark on a rehab assignment. Clearly, getting into a throwing routine is a meaningful step towards working back to game action.
Williams is arguably the best of Cleveland’s trio of highly-touted pitchers who debuted last year. The 23rd overall pick in the 2021 draft, he quickly developed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. The Guards promoted Williams in June. In his first 18 MLB starts, he turned in a 3.29 ERA over 82 innings. The East Carolina product fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while picking up whiffs on more than 12% of his pitches. Despite a 10.7% walk rate that’s higher than ideal, it was a strong debut showing. Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen also turned in sub-4.00 ERA performances in their first seasons.
Cleveland’s rotation nevertheless feels a bit more tenuous than it has in prior years. The Guardians lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie has subpar strikeout and walk rates in his return from last season’s UCL sprain. Carlos Carrasco, who made the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league deal, has a 6.59 ERA through six starts. Allen has allowed seven homers and has an earned run average above 5.00 through his first seven appearances. Ben Lively has been excellent in three outings, but he went unclaimed on waivers as recently as last offseason.
Reinstalling Williams alongside Bibee at the top of the staff would be a major boost. The Guardians have thrived despite the rotation questions, thanks in large part to one of MLB’s best bullpens. They’re tied with the Orioles for the American League’s best record at 20-11. Cleveland leads an AL Central that surprisingly has four teams sitting at least four games above .500.
Braves Acquire Jimmy Herget
The Braves have acquired reliever Jimmy Herget from the Angels for cash considerations, both teams announced. Atlanta had an opening on the 40-man roster after waiving David Fletcher last week. They optioned Herget to Triple-A Gwinnett, so no further move was necessary.
Herget has been with the Halos since 2021. Los Angeles inked the sidewinding righty to a minor league deal that August and selected his contract two weeks later. Herget logged 14 appearances with a 4.30 ERA down the stretch and held his spot on the 40-man roster. The South Florida product followed up with a career year in 2022. He tossed a personal-high 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, striking out 23.7% of opponents against a tidy 5.6% walk rate.
A spike in home runs the following season led the Halos to shuffle Herget between Anaheim and Triple-A Salt Lake. He allowed 4.66 earned runs per nine over 29 MLB innings and turned in a similar 4.68 mark over 32 2/3 frames in the Pacific Coast League. The Angels overhauled their bullpen last offseason, pushing Herget back to Salt Lake to open this season.
The 30-year-old has made 10 appearances with the Bees, tossing 11 1/3 innings. He has allowed seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits. Herget has only issued one walk, but opponents have connected on four homers in the early going. The Angels designated him for assignment over the weekend when they selected Zac Kristofak onto the MLB roster. (Kristofak was himself DFA yesterday when the Angels selected Willie Calhoun.)
Herget is in his final option year, meaning the Braves can keep him in Gwinnett for the rest of the season without putting him on waivers. He owns a 3.47 ERA in 142 2/3 major league innings between the Reds, Rangers and Angels.
Atlanta has a strong relief group without much in the way of roster flexibility. Of the eight relievers in the current MLB bullpen, only one (Dylan Lee) can be optioned. Herget joins Ray Kerr and Daysbel Hernández on optional assignment, while Ken Giles and Jackson Stephens are among the non-roster bullpen pieces in Gwinnett.
D-Backs Acquire Matt Bowman From Twins
The Diamondbacks announced they’ve acquired reliever Matt Bowman from the Twins for cash considerations. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported the move (on X) shortly before the announcement. Arizona optioned southpaw Blake Walston to Triple-A Reno in a corresponding active roster transaction. Starter Merrill Kelly moved from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list to clear 40-man roster space.
Bowman, 32, inked a minor league deal with Minnesota over the winter. The Twins selected his contract in the second week of the regular season. Bowman pitched five times, tossing 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball. He struck out six and issued four walks before being designated for assignment when the Twins welcomed Jhoan Duran back from the injured list. Bowman is out of options, so the Twins didn’t have the luxury of sending him back to Triple-A once they called him up.
A Princeton graduate, Bowman pitched for the Cardinals and Reds between 2016-19. He turned in three sub-4.00 ERA showings along the way, generally relying on huge ground-ball numbers to compensate for middling strikeout tallies. Injuries — most notably a September 2020 Tommy John procedure — kept Bowman out of game action for the next few years. He returned to health in Triple-A with the Yankees a year ago.
Bowman had a solid run for New York’s Triple-A affiliate. He posted a 3.99 ERA behind a 51.9% grounder percentage over 58 2/3 frames. The Yankees called him to the majors for a trio of appearances in September before waiving him at the end of the season.
Arizona is willing to install Bowman into the middle relief group. They’ll send cash Minnesota’s way to jump the waiver line. While Bowman doesn’t have much recent MLB experience because of the injuries, he’d gotten out to a strong start with Minnesota’s top farm team. He worked six innings and allowed only one unearned run with Triple-A St. Paul, striking out seven against a pair of walks.
The Diamondbacks have had a below-average relief group through the season’s first month. They entered play Thursday ranked 20th in ERA (4.34) and 28th in strikeout rate (18.7%). Arizona relievers have the fifth-highest walk percentage (11.3%) and have needed to shoulder the ninth-most innings.
The group was put under particular stress this week. After the now famous bee incident delayed Tuesday’s game, the D-Backs scratched Jordan Montgomery and used seven relievers to get through a bullpen game. Montgomery started yesterday but was knocked out after just three innings, requiring three more relievers (including a 3 2/3 inning stint from Walston in his MLB debut). Bowman adds a fresh arm to the middle innings.
Kelly suffered a shoulder strain that’ll require a lengthy absence. Manager Torey Lovullo was recently noncommittal on getting him back before the All-Star Break. He’s now out for a minimum of 60 days from the time of his original IL placement on April 20. He’s at least out of MLB action until mid-June.
Red Sox Outright Joely Rodriguez
The Red Sox have sent reliever Joely Rodríguez outright to Triple-A Worcester, tweets MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. Boston had designated the left-hander for assignment over the weekend.
Rodríguez signed a minor league deal with the Sox over the offseason. Boston carried him on the Opening Day roster to keep him from opting out and retesting free agency. That didn’t work as the team hoped, as he surrendered 12 runs (eight earned) over 11 innings. Rodríguez ran an 11:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and induced grounders on over 55% of batted balls, but the Red Sox clearly weren’t overly bullish on his chance to get back on track.
It is the second straight season in which Rodríguez struggled over an 11-inning stint for Boston. Oblique, shoulder and hip injuries kept him to just 11 appearances a year ago. Rodríguez also allowed eight earned runs in that season, which came on the heels of a $2MM major league free agent deal. He divided the 2021-22 seasons between the Rangers and the two New York franchises, combining for a 4.56 ERA across 107 appearances.
Rodríguez has the requisite three years of major league service to decline an outright assignment, but he has not crossed the five-year threshold necessary to retain his salary if he does so. If Rodríguez accepts the assignment, he’ll join Lucas Luetge as a veteran non-roster southpaw in Worcester. Boston has Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser in the big league bullpen. They acquired Bailey Horn from the White Sox earlier this week. He’s on the 40-man but was immediately optioned to Worcester and hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues.
The NL Rookie Of The Year Field Is Loaded
In my subscriber chat last week, a questioner asked which players I'd take as respective Rookies of the Year. While the race in both leagues could be interesting, the picture in the National League seems particularly fascinating. There are 10-15 players who could be legitimate threats for that award, a reflection both of an intriguing level of prospect talent and NL teams' signing of a handful of players out of foreign professional leagues last offseason.
Let's run through what is shaping up to be a strong class.
Jared Jones, Pirates RHP
Jones would be my pick for the most impressive rookie of the season's first month. The Pirates right-hander has followed up an excellent spring with a dominant six MLB starts. He owns a 3.18 ERA over 34 innings while striking out nearly 32% of batters faced. Jones has walked fewer than 4% of his opponents, and while he'll probably have a tough time maintaining quite that level, he's getting opposing hitters to flail aimlessly at stuff off the plate.
Among all major league pitchers with 20+ innings, only Sonny Gray and Jack Flaherty have a better strikeout/walk rate differential. No one is inducing swinging strikes at a higher clip. Jones has surpassed 120 innings in the minors in each of the last two seasons, so he shouldn't be on too strict a workload limit. The only quibble with his performance is an elevated 1.85 HR/9 rate, but the longball wasn't much of an issue in the minors. This didn't come out of nowhere -- the former second-round draftee entered the year as a Top 100 prospect and trendy Rookie of the Year pick -- but it would've been tough to predict this level of immediate dominance.
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Angels Release Aaron Hicks
The Angels have released Aaron Hicks, per the transaction log at MLB.com. That was the expected course of action once the Halos designated the veteran outfielder for assignment on Monday.
Assuming he clears release waivers, Hicks will become a free agent. That clearly wasn’t the way the Angels envisioned his tenure when they inked him to a major league deal over the winter. With the Yankees still responsible for Hicks’ salaries in the final two years of his contract, the Halos took a league minimum flier to add him to the big league bench. The switch-hitter had turned in a surprising .275/.381/.425 slash in 65 games with the Orioles after being released by New York last May.
The 34-year-old did not maintain that positive form in his month in Orange County. Hicks struck out in 23 of his 63 plate appearances as an Angel. He hit .140/.222/.193 overall, an even colder start than the .188/.263/.261 slash he’d had with the Yankees before his release last season. Despite Hicks’ productive stint in Baltimore, he has a below-average .224/.330/.330 batting line in 828 plate appearances going back to the start of 2022.
One day after designating Hicks for assignment, the Angels lost Mike Trout to a meniscus tear. They signed Kevin Pillar, himself recently DFA by the White Sox, to a major league deal. Pillar will back up the new starting trio of Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell in the Angel Stadium outfield.
As was the case for the Angels, any team willing to offer Hicks an MLB roster spot could do so at minimal cost. He’d be paid the prorated $740K league minimum for any time spent in the majors with New York on the hook for the bulk of the money.
A’s Option Ryan Noda
The A’s optioned first baseman Ryan Noda to Triple-A Las Vegas following today’s win over the Pirates. Oakland hasn’t announced a corresponding move, but MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos tweets that they could reinstate third baseman J.D. Davis from the 10-day injured list before Friday’s series opener against the Marlins.
It’s a quick turn of events for the A’s Opening Day first baseman. The second pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, Noda not only stuck on the roster but was one of Oakland’s best hitters as a rookie. He hit 16 homers with a .229/.364/.406 slash through 495 plate appearances. Between a very patient approach and below-average contact rate, Noda struck out at a huge 34.3% clip. Yet he also walked at a massive 15.6% rate — a top ten mark in MLB — and hit for enough power to be a productive offensive player.
That has not been the case in 2024. An 0-4 showing this afternoon dropped his season line to .128/.242/.198 in exactly 100 trips to the dish. Noda has taken another 12 free passes, but he has punched out 32 times. He hasn’t done any kind of damage, hitting just one homer and a trio of doubles. That longball and one of the doubles came against the Guardians on April 20. Noda doesn’t have a knock since then, as he has gone hitless in his last 11 appearances.
Skipper Mark Kotsay has continued to give Noda regular run against right-handed pitching. They’ll need to go in another direction for at least the next couple of weeks while he works to get back on track in the Pacific Coast League. Switch-hitting Abraham Toro has moved to first base for the A’s last two games against left-handed starters. Max Schuemann has stepped in at Toro’s customary second base spot for those contests.
If Davis is indeed ready to return from the adductor strain that has cost him the past two weeks, he’ll likely return to third base. That could push Tyler Nevin across the diamond. The right-handed hitting Nevin, whom the A’s claimed off waivers from the Orioles a month ago, connected on his fourth homer of the season in today’s game and is up to a .325/.375/.500 slash over 88 plate appearances.