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Managerial Notes: Bowa, Bogar, Scioscia

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The latest managerial notes from around the Major Leagues…

  • Astros owner Jim Crane said he hopes to have decided on a manager by the end of next week, Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reports (on Twitter). Crane said the Astros have interviewed five or six candidates and have a few upcoming interviews, MLB.com's Brian McTaggart reports (on Twitter).
  • Larry Bowa won't be the Astros' next manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Bowa said he and Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow agreed the team needs a younger manager. The 66-year-old Bowa added that he was "very impressed" by Luhnow when the two spoke earlier in the month.
  • Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar will interview for the Astros' managerial opening, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The Astros are expected to conduct the interview in the Tampa Bay area when the Red Sox visit the Rays. The interview will take place tomorrow, McTaggart reports (on Twitter). Bogar was also a candidate for Houston's managerial opening before the 2011 season. 
  • Nationals third base coach Bo Porter, Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and interim skipper Tony DeFrancesco have already interviewed for the Astros job.
  • Angels GM Jerry Dipoto continues to support manager Mike Scioscia, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports. Dipoto pointed to Scioscia's "great track record of success," and declined to speculate about the manager's job security in detail. Scioscia is under contract through 2018.

Central Notes: Indians, Tigers, Lohse

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Dusty Baker will manage his 3,000th MLB game when the Reds visit the Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight. It’ll be a familiar setting for Baker, who managed the Cubs for four seasons before moving on to Cincinnati. Here are the latest links from MLB's two central divisions…

  • Indians president Mark Shapiro indicated that the team will have the ability to spend this offseason (Twitter link). However, Shapiro questions the depth of this particular free agent market. The Indians could be looking to sign an outfielder, and this year’s free agent class is particularly strong in the outfield.
  • Anibal Sanchez of the Tigers and Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates are among the trade deadline acquisitions who have recovered from shaky beginnings in new cities, Paul Casella of MLB.com writes.
  • St. Louis Post-Dispatch writers Derrick Goold, Rick Hummel, Jeff Gordon and Tom Timmermann weigh in on whether the Cardinals should look to retain Kyle Lohse for 2013. The writers note that the Cardinals have starting pitching depth and need to spend on other areas, such as a possible extension for Adam Wainwright. Nearly three quarters of respondents to a recent MLBTR poll suggested the Cardinals should make Lohse a qualifying offer when he hits free agency after the season.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Grilli

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Established closers such as Jose Valverde, Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton will draw interest when they hit free agency this offseason. But those relievers aren't pitching as well as Jason Grilli, the Pirates right-hander who is enjoying a career year in Pittsburgh as he approaches his 36th birthday. Grilli’s breakout season figures to pay off a few months from now when he signs his next contract.

Jason Grilli - Pirates (PW)

Grilli has put together a dominant season in Pittsburgh largely because of his ability to generate strikeouts. He’s fourth among MLB pitchers with 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 50 innings pitched) for a total of 84 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. He’s also fourth on the Pirates in strikeouts, ahead of Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens, who both spent most of the year in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Grilli’s fastball averages 93.7mph, a career high. Opponents swing and miss at 14.3% of his offerings, also a career high. While he’s not quite in Craig Kimbrel/Aroldis Chapman territory when it comes to generating swinging strikes, he's ahead of swing and miss relievers such as Jonny Venters and Fernando Rodney. 

Both left-handers and right-handers have struggled against Grilli, the Giants’ first round pick in 1997. He strikes out 43.1% of the left-handed hitters he faces, fourth among all relievers and tops among those headed for free agency. Right-handers have slightly more success; they strike out 31.6% of the time.

Overall, Grilli’s numbers are phenomenal: a 2.96 ERA with 13.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 31.9% ground ball rate in 54 2/3 innings. Though 2012 has been Grilli's best season, he has had success at the MLB level before. He pitched effectively for Pittsburgh last year and his strikeout rate has risen in each of the last six seasons (excluding 2010, when Grilli didn't pitch).

He settled for a minor league deal leading up to the 2011 season, after missing all of 2010 with a leg injury. This offseason, he’ll be one of the top free agent relievers available. He’ll be guaranteed millions and a big league roster spot. It’s a question of how much money and how many years.

His agent, former MLB star Gary Sheffield, should push for a multiyear contract despite his client’s age (in case you’re wondering, the slugger turned agent was hitless in two career at bats against Grilli). Sheffield will note recent multiyear contracts signed by non-closing relievers such as Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Grant Balfour. Parallels also exist between Grilli and Joaquin Benoit, who missed the entire 2009 season then pitched his way to a three-year, $16.5MM contract with a dominant age-32 season.

It must be noted that the market for relief pitchers seems increasingly hostile. Multiyear contracts for free agent relievers dropped from 17 in 2010-11 to six last offseason. General managers will surely ask themselves if Grilli, who will be 36 by Opening Day 2013, can replicate his 2012 numbers. 

In my view the floor for Grilli is a one-year deal with a base salary in the $3-5MM range. For someone whose career prospects seemed to be fading two years ago that’d be a notable contract, but there’s a good chance he can do even better. I expect a two-year deal in the $10MM range for Grilli, who won’t be tied to draft pick compensation thanks to the sport’s new collective bargaining agreement. He’s pitching at an elite level and that’ll be reflected in his next contract.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

New York Notes: Davis, Mets, Jeter

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Andy Pettitte will return to the mound against the Blue Jays tonight — assuming the Yankees aren't rained out in New York. Meanwhile, the Mets will start Matt Harvey against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Here are today's New York Notes…

  • Ike Davis was surprised and confused to hear that the Mets are concerned about his nightlife, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. “I have never missed games or not been ready to work because of anything to do with staying up too late,” Davis told Martino. Adam Rubin reported today that the Mets will consider trade offers for Davis, in part because they have questions about his lifestyle.
  • Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger suggests the Mets will consider trading any player not named David Wright this winter (Twitter link). The Mets will reportedly consider trades for Davis and Lucas Duda this offseason.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post explains how Derek Jeter’s durability impacts other players on the 2012 Yankees. Jeter's hitting .323/.366/.444 in a league-leading 665 plate appearances.

Poll: Should Kyle Lohse Get A Qualifying Offer?

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Kyle Lohse’s strong season is part of the reason the Cardinals are on track to return to the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. Lohse, who starts against the Astros tonight, has a 2.81 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate in 192 innings over the course of 30 starts this year. The 33-year-old right-hander has an eye-catching 14-3 record with an average fastball velocity of 89.4 mph and a swinging strike rate of 7.1%.

Despite his production, he’s not expected to return to St. Louis when he hits free agency this offseason, as the Cardinals already have an assortment of options for their 2013 rotation. Instead, the Scott Boras client figures to seek another multiyear deal in free agency when his four-year, $41MM contract expires after the season.

The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer, even if they don’t expect him to return in 2013. Extending Lohse a qualifying offer would be the only way for GM John Mozeliak to obtain a compensatory draft pick next year. Without an offer, Lohse would leave and the Cardinals would get nothing.

If St. Louis does make Lohse an offer, he’d be tied to draft pick compensation and one of two things would happen: he’d accept and get locked in to a one-year deal at a salary of $13MM-plus, or he’d decline in search of a multiyear deal, setting St. Louis up for draft pick compensation in 2013. 

The Cardinals will have other needs to address this offseason, such as bullpen help and a potential extension for Adam Wainwright, so spending $13MM on another starter might be considered a luxury. But they could move Lohse, who would generate trade interest on a one-year deal in the $13MM range. 

If the Cardinals are willing to take this risk, they can set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. If not, they can keep it simple and let Lohse depart without making him a qualifying offer. What should they do?

Should the Cardinals make Kyle Lohse a qualifying offer after the season?
Yes 74.20% (4,377 votes)
No 25.80% (1,522 votes)
Total Votes: 5,899

Mets Will Consider Trading Ike Davis, Lucas Duda

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9:00am: The Mets won't shop either Davis or Duda aggressively, but they'll be open to the right deal for either player, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (on Twitter).

8:26am: The Mets will consider trading Ike Davis as a way of addressing other needs this offseason, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports. There’s no guarantee Davis will be moved, but it’s at least “a very plausible option,” Rubin writes. 

The Mets are disappointed with Davis’ attitude toward coaching advice and they worry that he’s out too late after games, according to Rubin. Trading Davis would open up first base for Lucas Duda, who’s viewed as an inferior defender to Davis. 

Davis, 25, has rebounded from a slow start to post a .223/.302/.444 batting line with 27 home runs in 529 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter will be first-time arbitration eligible as a super two player this coming offseason and he's under team control through 2016. The Indians, Rays, Red Sox and Marlins are among the teams that could be interested in first basemen this coming offseason.

AL East Notes: Pettitte, Ellsbury

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The Orioles assured themselves of a winning season with a win in Oakland over the Athletics yesterday. Baltimore's road trip continues in Seattle today, and with a win the O's can gain a half game on the idle Yankees. Here are today's AL East notes…

  • Yankees starter Andy Pettitte says he’s not sure whether he’ll pitch next year, Brian Heyman of the Journal News reports. The left-hander, who is is scheduled to pitch against the Blue Jays tomorrow, will think about his options in the offseason. He indicated he’s more likely to return because injuries have limited him in 2012.
  • Team president Randy Levine recently recently said the Yankees would discuss a contract with Pettitte if he decides to return for another season.
  • One MLB executive said there’s “zero” chance the Red Sox sign Jacoby Ellsbury to a contract extension before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2013 season, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports. The rotation will be Boston’s offseason focus, but the team’s offense also has question marks, McAdam writes.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Evan Meek

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The latest outright assignments from around MLB… 

  • The Pirates outrighted right-hander Evan Meek to Triple-A Indianapolis, according to the team's website. Pittsburgh removed the 2010 All-Star from the 40-man roster one week ago, designating him for assignment. Meek, 29, made 12 relief appearances for this year’s Pirates team but spent most of this year with Indianapolis, where he posted a 2.74 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 46 innings of relief work.

Levine Talks Payroll, Girardi, Rivera, Ichiro

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Yankees president Randy Levine addressed the team’s age, injuries, leadership and prospective free agents in a comprehensive interview with Barry Bloom of MLB.com. Here are some more highlights from his interview with Bloom:

  • The Yankees aim to avoid the $189MM luxury tax threshold by 2014, Levine confirmed. “There are tremendous financial incentives to do it,” he said. “In addition to not paying the tax, there are tens of millions of dollars in revenue sharing rebates that will come back to teams like the Yankees if they stay under the threshold.” 
  • The Yankees must get younger to continue competing, Levine said. Baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement places additional importance on player development and changes to the CBA could also lead to a “very different free-agent market,” Levine said.
  • Joe Girardi and his staff have done a “good job,” Levine said. He declined to discuss Girardi’s long-term future with the team, saying only that discussions would take place at the appropriate time.
  • Levine expressed confidence in general manager Brian Cashman and the team’s other front office executives. “I think everybody is great.”
  • The Yankees are doing “very, very well” from a business standpoint, Levine said. He made it clear that the Steinbrenner family has no intention of selling the club, but said the Dodgers’ sale price of $2 billion “gives us something to smile about.”
  • The Yankees would “love to have” Mariano Rivera come back in 2013, Levine said. “If he wants to come back, we'll welcome him back.”
  • The Yankees want Rafael Soriano in New York and believe he has done a tremendous job. The closer is expected to opt out of his contract with the Yankees after the season and elect free agency.
  • The Yankees will talk to Andy Pettitte this offseason if the left-hander is interested in returning for another year.
  • Ichiro Suzuki “has done a good job” in New York, Levine said. As of now, however, the team is focused on 2012, not Ichiro’s next contract.
  • Levine acknowledged that he’s concerned about injuries, saying the frequency of disabled list stints is “troubling.”

Pirates Eyeing Red Sox Relievers

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The Pirates have been looking at Boston’s relievers as they aim to add to their bullpen for the final two weeks of the regular season, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports (on Twitter). The Pirates, now 73-72, are three games out of a playoff spot. However, they'd have to pass the Brewers and Dodgers then overtake the Cardinals to claim the National League's second Wild Card berth.

Now that rosters have expanded, the Red Sox have a 12-man bullpen. Vicente Padilla is about to hit free agency and could be available in a trade. The other Red Sox relievers are under team control beyond 2012 and might not be as available. The Pirates’ active roster currently includes 18 pitchers, including James McDonald who was recently moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

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