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How Much Is Super Two Status Worth?

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Super two players go to arbitration four times instead of three, so they make more money than their peers. This incentivizes teams to keep top young players in the minors for extra seasoning: clubs save millions in future seasons if their players don't qualify as super twos.

It's probably not a coincidence that Carlos Santana, Giancarlo Stanton and Stephen Strasburg were all called up within four days of one another in June of 2010. Those players now project to miss out on super two status this offseason because of the patience their teams showed two years ago.

This past offseason former top prospects Matt Wieters and Andrew McCutchen were among the players who narrowly missed out on super two status. Three years ago, when they were initially called up, it was apparent that their teams were likely working to avoid super two status. This isn’t to say teams always time call-ups based on service time — that's not at all true — but there’s no denying it’s a contributing factor with top prospects. 

Sometimes teams build escalators into extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players who may qualify as super twos (yesterday we encountered one such deal). Here’s a look at how teams have valued super two status on recent contract:

The value of super two status depends on many factors including the player’s performance and the timing of the deal. But if your favorite team keeps its top prospect in the minors until June, know that arbitration eligibility may well be a factor. Similarly, it’s easy to see why the MLBPA insisted on an increase in super two players in the most recent round of collective bargaining.

Examining The Madison Bumgarner Extension

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It’s not surprising that Madison Bumgarner's part of the Giants’ long-term vision. The 22-year-old is establishing himself as one of the best left-handers in the National League as he begins his second full season. But the specifics of the five-year, $35MM extension he signed yesterday were somewhat surprising. Here’s a breakdown of the deal:

What Distinguishes Bumgarner From His Peers

Bumgarner signed a record deal for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service time. Most pitchers in Bumgarner’s service class have signed four-year deals in the $10-12MM range, but Bumgarner’s deal corresponds to the five-year, $30MM template for starters with two-plus years of service. 

How’d he pull that off? I am guessing his representatives at SFX argued that he has enough bulk and quality to separate himself from most of his own service class and place him alongside more experienced pitchers.  

Many players in Bumgarner’s own service class don’t compare. He had 150-200 more innings than pitchers such as Cory Luebke, Wade Davis or Brett Anderson had when they signed as one-plus players (for an interesting counter-example, check out James Shields’ stats through 2007). SFX presumably said ‘Bumgarner needs to earn as much as the pitchers in the next service class because he is as accomplished as them.’

Why Bumgarner Could Ask For $30MM+

Pitchers such as Jon Niese, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill signed for $25-30.5MM as two-plus players. They have only a slight advantage over Bumgarner in career wins, starts and innings despite their one-year advantage in service time. Bumgarner has more innings than Ricky Romero or Yovani Gallardo did at the time of their deals, and at least as many starts. (Innings matter a whole lot when we’re discussing pitchers’ arbitration years.)

There's also quality. Bumgarner’s ERA is substantially below the marks of Niese and Holland and well below the marks of Romero, Gallardo, Cahill and Buchholz and Jon Lester. He also has a better career walk rate than anyone in this group and better career strikeout rate than anyone but Gallardo. Not only has he pitched his share of innings, they’ve been good ones. Cy Young votes and postseason experience help, too.

Still, I wouldn't have expected Bumgarner to sign for more than $30MM. He ultimately obtained more than most pitchers in the service class ahead of him.

Why The Deal Works For The Giants

The Giants likely looked ahead to Bumgarner's arb years and thought 'this guy's going to get expensive in a hurry.' They know better than any team that elite pitchers can earn lots by going year to year through the arbitration process.

Bumgarner had been on track for a first year arbitration salary of $4MM or more. It would only get more expensive from there, so the Giants obtained some potential for savings in arb here. The deal also insures against the possibility that Bumgarner breaks out into an ace.

Arbitration savings are nice, but they’re a risky way to try to save given the guaranteed commitment required. Most importantly, the Giants extended Bumgarner’s time in San Francisco by at least one year, and possibly three. The Giants now control more of his prime years.

Why The Deal Works For Bumgarner

Let’s start with the $35MM guarantee. Not only does Bumgarner obtain a ton of money, he establishes a new record for pitchers in his service class.

It’s also worth noting that this deal won't necessarily represent the only big payday of his career. At the latest, he'll hit free agency following his age-29 season. Left-handed starters C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee have shown teams are willing to pay for elite starters well after they turn 30.

Minor Moves: Fossum, Johnson, Wells, Buschmann

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves right here…

  • The Orioles released left-hander Casey Fossum and catcher Josh Johnson, tweets Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.  Both players were at Baltimore's extended Spring Training camp on minor league contracts.
  • The White Sox have parted ways with Kip Wells, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets. The White Sox had signed the right-hander to a minor league deal ten days ago.
  • The Rays acquired right-hander Matt Buschmann from the Nationals for cash and assigned their new acquisition to Double-A, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The 28-year-old posted a 6.16 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 134 1/3 innings with the Padres' top affiliates last year. Buschmann has started 116 minor league games in six pro seasons.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Gregg, Soler

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The Braves announced that they’re retiring John Smoltz’s number 29 to honor the right-hander’s contributions over the course of 20 seasons with Atlanta. Here are today’s links…

  • Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine publicly questioned Kevin Youkilis' commitment, but GM Ben Cherington says the entire organization knows Youkilis works and plays hard. "Bobby's acknowledged that he shouldn't have said what he said and spoke to Kevin about it,'' Cherington told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • The Red Sox aren’t likely to deal for an outfielder to fill in while Jacoby Ellsbury’s on the disabled list, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears from a team source.
  • MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli wonders if it’s time for the Orioles and Kevin Gregg to part ways (Twitter link). Gregg, who had a rough outing in Toronto yesterday, will earn $5.8MM this year. I expect the Orioles to decline their $6MM club option for Gregg this coming offseason.
  • As far as MLB teams know, Jorge Soler isn’t officially a free agent yet, Ben Badler of Baseball America tweets. This means teams can’t yet negotiate with the promising young outfielder.

Rosenthal On White Sox, Mets, Reds

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had his doubts about rookie managers Robin Ventura and Mike Matheny heading into the season, but both appear to be doing well so far. Here are more of Rosenthal’s notes from around the league…

  • An unnamed rival executive says former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen was an “inefficiency” who prevented his team from reaching its full potential in Chicago.
  • White Sox GM Kenny Williams likes that his team has pitched well and played solid fundamental baseball, Rosenthal reports. Williams prefers not to comment on Guillen, who managed the White Sox from 2004-11.
  • GM Sandy Alderson suggests the Mets’ 6-3 start is an indication that the Mets’ cautious optimism was warranted earlier this spring. “We’re hoping with what happened over the first 10 days or so, people will begin to see the potential of this team differently,” Alderson said.
  • Rival executives aren’t sure how the Reds will manage their payroll now that Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto have lucrative long-term extensions.

Giants Extend Madison Bumgarner

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The Giants don't have the most intimidating offense in the league, but they've got pitching and it's not going anywhere. The team announced a five-year extension for Madison Bumgarner that will keep the left-hander in San Francisco through 2017. The deal, which starts in 2013, includes options for 2018 (club/vesting) and 2019 (club). 

Madison Bumgarner - Giants (PW)

The extension guarantees Bumgarner $35MM over five years, his agency, SFX, announced (all Twitter links). The contract represents a record for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service, but the Giants saw enough from the 22-year-old to make a record-setting commitment after just one full season.

“Preserving our core pitching for the long term remains a top priority for the Giants and today’s extension certainly helps further that goal,” GM Brian Sabean said in a press release. “Madison has already proven that he is one of the best left handed pitchers in the game today and we are confident that he will continue to succeed for many years to come.”

The guaranteed portion of the extension covers Bumgarner's final pre-arbitration season, his three seasons of arbitration eligibility, and one free agent year assuming that CAA's projected super two cutoff proves accurate. The club options cover free agent seasons. 

Bumgarner's guarantee would increase to $40MM if he qualifies for super two status following the 2012 season — a possibility that now seems remote. ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets the expected salary breakdown. The deal includes a limited no-trade clause, Olney tweets. Bumgarner can block trades to eight teams per year. 

Bumgarner will pitch alongside Matt Cain, who recently signed an extension that locks him up through 2017. Tim Lincecum's under team control through 2013, as the Giants have been unable to work out a long-term deal with the two-time Cy Young Award winner so far.

As MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows, many pitchers have signed five-year extensions covering their arbitration seasons. However, most had more service time than Bumgarner has now. The 2007 first round selection entered the 2012 season with one year and 127 days of MLB service, but that didn't stop him from setting a record for his service class. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes previewed a possible extension for Bumgarner in December, suggesting SFX would do well to obtain $23-4MM in guaranteed money.

Bumgarner helped the Giants win the 2010 World Series, making 18 regular season starts that year plus three more in the playoffs. He followed up his rookie year by posting a 3.21 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 46% ground ball rate in 204 2/3 innings in 2011. Though he doesn't throw particularly hard, Bumgarner combines his low-90s fastball with an effective slider to subdue his opponents.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Luhnow: Astros Not Shopping Myers

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Astros closer Brett Myers is not on the trading block, GM Jeff Luhnow told Mark Berman of FOX 26 Sports in Houston (Twitter links). Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported over the weekend that the Astros were shopping the right-hander.

Myers transitioned to the bullpen this spring after spending most of the past four seasons in the rotation. The 31-year-old has pitched effectively in his first two appearances as Houston's closer, for what it's worth. He'll earn $11MM in 2012 and figures to be involved in many trade rumors this summer if he continues pitching well. For now, however, Luhnow says the Astros are not discussing trades with other teams.

Mariners To Sign Hersin Martinez

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The Mariners have agreed to sign Dominican outfielder Hersin Martinez to a deal worth $1.1MM, the Dominican Prospect League announced. The prospect has “tremendous plus raw power and a high projection ceiling,” according to the league release. 

Martinez won the inaugural DPL power showcase with an impressive showing that included one 507-foot homer. He's a below average runner but can play the outfield and has a solid-average arm, the release states.

Dodgers Notes: Kemp, Payroll, Robinson

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The 9-1 Dodgers will slow down eventually, but their hot start ensures they'll win 85 games as long as they play .500 baseball from here on. Here are some Dodgers-related links in the aftermath of Jackie Robinson Day 2012…

  • Matt Kemp is wowing Yahoo's Jeff Passan nightly with his power and speed. We're seeing "the self-actualization of a player like Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols," Passan writes.
  • The Dodgers may not be a great team, but they're good enough to make the playoffs this year, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports argues. The Dodgers have only played the Pirates and Padres so far, but at least they're winning the games they should win.
  • Russell Martin and Curtis Granderson of the Yankees tell Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that it takes more than money to turn a large-market team like the Dodgers into a perennial playoff contender.
  • Robinson's daughter, Sharon Robinson, told Shaikin that the Dodgers' incoming owners have reached out to her and her family. The ownership group publicly fronted by Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten has contacted the Robinson family and its foundation, Shaikin reports. Sharon Robinson sounds optimistic about the possibility of working with the franchise her father played for.

How To Use MLBTR

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An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

  • If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
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  • To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
  • The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
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