Ben Nicholson-Smith | MLB Trade Rumors

Minor Moves: Pendleton, Stange, Main, Canham

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 10:16pm CDT

Here are the most recent minor moves, via Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and Matt Eddy of Baseball America…

The Rays have signed right-hander Lance Pendleton, reports Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old posted a 6.75 ERA in 18 2/3 innings split between the Yankees and Astros last season.
The Diamondbacks released right-hander Daniel Stange, Goldstein tweets. Stange, who pitched in the Majors in 2010, owns a 4.36 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in seven minor league seasons. Goldstein considered the 2006 seventh rounder a sleeper early on in his minor league career.
The Marlins signed Michael Main, Goldstein tweets. Miami has listed the 2007 first rounder as an outfielder, though the Rangers drafted him as a right-handed pitcher. Main posted a 4.95 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 305 innings in the minor league systems of the Rangers and Giants.
The Cardinals signed catcher Mitch Canham, Goldstein tweets. The Padres selected Canham in the supplemental first round back in 2007.
The Orioles released former minor league closer Winston Abreu, Eddy tweets. The right-hander signed with the Mexico City Red Devils.

Quick Hits: Wright, Bowden, Jurrjens

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 4:24pm CDT

The Rays locked Evan Longoria up to a historic six-year, $17.5MM extension on this date in 2008. Then a rookie with just six games of experience, Longoria has since evolved into one of the game's top players. Here are today's links…

An insider recently told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that he has a gut feeling the Mets will extend David Wright (Twitter link). However, an extension for the hot-hitting third baseman isn’t a priority at the moment. The Mets have a $16MM club option for Wright's 2013 season.
Michael Bowden hadn’t been placed on waivers as of yesterday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. The Red Sox recently designated Bowden for assignment along with Luis Exposito, who has since been claimed by the Orioles.
Tim Lincecum, Kevin Youkilis and Jair Jurrjens are among the players who may be making their general managers nervous so far this season, Jim Bowden writes at ESPN.com.

Top First-Time Arbitration Eligible Catchers For 2013

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 1:16pm CDT

Carlos Santana and Jonathan Lucroy recently signed extensions, but some other catchers are on track for year to year raises through arbitration. Three of the game's top young backstops will be arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2012 season. Matt Wieters, Alex Avila, Buster Posey are well-positioned for 2013 salaries in excess of $2MM if they stay healthy this year.

Deals from long ago, players from different service classes and long-term extensions won't generally have sway in the arbitration cases for players such as Wieters, Avila and Posey who determine salaries year to year. Catchers are typically self-contained in arbitration, meaning players at other positions don't figure into the discussion most of the time. For comps to have pull with agents (and the MLBPA) and teams (and the Labor Relations Department), they have to be recent and relevant.

What's relevant? First-time eligible catchers who agreed to one-year deals via the arbitration system provide the framework within which the salaries for Wieters, Avila and Posey will be determined. Reaching back more than five years would be pushing it, which further limits the selection of comparables. Many top catchers (Brian McCann, Yadier Molina) signed long-term deals and other potentially comparable catchers like A.J. Pierzynski went to arbitration long ago (post-2003). These cases aren't centrally important to Wieters, Avila and Posey.

We're left with the Arb-1 salaries for Russell Martin ($3.9MM), Geovany Soto ($3MM), Nick Hundley ($2MM), Miguel Montero ($2MM) and Mike Napoli ($2MM). Each of those settlements came within the last five years and could help determine the earnings for this offseason's first-time eligible backstops. Before signing his first extension, Joe Mauer and the Twins exchanged arbitration submissions and arrived at a $3.9MM midpoint ($4.5MM vs. $3.3MM). Those six-year-old filing numbers could also figure in to next winter's cases.

Posey didn't play after a gruesome home-plate collision ended his season last May, so there's no way he'll measure up to players such as Avila, Wieters, Soto and Martin in terms of bulk stats like games, plate appearances and RBI. Posey resembles Soto, another NL Rookie of the Year winner, on a per-game basis, but he probably won't catch up to the Cubs backstop in terms of counting stats.

With a full season, Posey should have better bulk numbers than Hundley, Napoli and Montero did as first-time eligible catchers. Each member of that trio obtained $2MM their first time through the arbitration process, so a salary in the $2-3MM range is within reach for Posey.

If Avila plays in 104 games, makes 470 plate appearances, hits 23 homers and drives in 69 this season, he’ll have matched the career stats Soto had as a first-time eligible player. Avila could match Martin in homers, and a better platform year is within reach. But in terms of most significant counting stats, Avila won't measure up to Wieters and Martin, the record holder for first-time eligible catchers. Still, Avila's similarity to Soto should set him up for a comparable payday in the $3MM range.

Wieters will have distinguished himself from $2MM catchers such as Hundley, Montero, Napoli and John Buck by the time the season ends. In fact, it's not hard to argue that he has already done so. The switch hitter currently compares well with Soto's post-2010 career numbers despite his relative inexperience. He'll match Soto's career numbers with eight more homers and 21 RBI, but the Cubs backstop had a better career batting line. Even so, $3MM seems quite attainable for Wieters.

With a healthy season, Wieters would surpass some of the numbers Martin had as a first-time eligible player. The Orioles catcher is on track to have more games, plate appearances and RBI than Martin did when he set his record after the 2008 season. And Wieters' bulk numbers are already superior to those Mauer had as a first-time eligible player. However, Wieters doesn't offer Martin's speed or the batting average and on-base percentage that Martin and Mauer both had. Wieters' 2013 salary could be closer to $4MM than it is to $3MM, but it's unreasonable to expect him to break any records just yet.

These informal projections could change quickly. As Posey knows all too well, injuries can interrupt seasons and limit bargaining power. Playing time is one of the most important determinants of a hitter's salary, so these three catchers must stay healthy to remain on track. If all goes well, their salaries will climb above $2MM following the 2012 season.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Latest On Rangers, Mike Napoli

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 12:10pm CDT

The agent for Mike Napoli says his client fits somewhere between Victor Martinez and Yadier Molina on the spectrum of baseball’s best catchers, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. In other words, Napoli’s asking price appears to fall in the range between Martinez’s $52MM contract and Molina’s $75MM extension.

"Depending on how he performs this year, he could be closer to Molina or Martinez," agent Brian Grieper told Heyman.

Napoli, who hit two homers in Boston last night, is on track for free agency this coming offseason. He'll earn $9.4MM this year after hitting 30 homers and posting a .320/.414/.631 line last year.

The Rangers don’t appear to have discussed an extension with Napoli recently, but Heyman suggests they offered less than $52MM over the offseason. The 30-year-old is willing to discuss an extension during the season, Grieper said.

Angels, Erick Aybar Nearing Extension

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 9:23am CDT

The Angels are nearing a multiyear extension with Erick Aybar, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reports. The deal with the SFX client could be announced by tomorrow.

Angels GM Jerry Dipoto recently acknowledged that the club has made progress in discussions with Aybar, who had been scheduled to hit free agency this coming offseason. Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times reported this week that the sides had yet to agree on the value of the deal. The Angels prefer to sign Aybar for something close to Howie Kendrick’s four-year, $33.5MM extension, but the shortstop appears to seek at least five years and $50M. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has heard that the Angels have been proposing a four-year deal in the $35MM range (Twitter link).

MLBTR's Extension Tracker offers a look at recent extensions for shortstops around MLB.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 18, 2012 at 8:01am CDT

The Astros welcomed a new owner, hired a new GM and agreed to switch leagues this past offseason.

Major League Signings

Chris Snyder, C: one year, $850K.
Jack Cust, OF: one year, $600K. Since released.
Total spend: $1.45MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Landon Powell, Justin Ruggiano, Mike Hessman, Travis Buck, Diory Hernandez.

Trades and Claims

Acquired RP Kevin Chapman and a player to be named later for OF Jason Bourgeois and C Humberto Quintero.
Acquired SS Jed Lowrie and SP Kyle Weiland for RP Mark Melancon.
Claimed OF Fernando Martinez from the Mets.
Claimed UT Brian Bixler from the Nationals.
Claimed C Craig Tatum from the Orioles. Later claimed by Diamondbacks.

Notable Losses

Clint Barmes, Jason Michaels, Bourgeois, Quintero, Melancon.

Draft Picks Gained or Lost

Obtained 41st overall selection for losing Barmes.

Drayton McLane and Ed Wade have moved on and before long the Astros will be an American League team. The first offseason under owner Jim Crane and general manager Jeff Luhnow was full of off-field change, and the team itself will also have a new look after the GM's offseason trades.

Luhnow, the Cardinals' longtime VP of scouting and player development, dealt Major Leaguers for prospects in his first offseason as Houston's GM. He also hired analytically-minded baseball people such as Sig Mejdal and Mike Fast to help the club improve its decision making.

In the short-term, the Astros project as one the worst teams in baseball. No National League club allowed more runs a year ago, and the Astros outscored just three of their NL rivals. It's hard to imagine significant improvements given the current roster.

Luhnow's turned Mark Melancon into a shortstop (Jed Lowrie) and a starting pitcher (Kyle Weiland) in his first major trade as a GM. The Astros obtained more upside in the Melancon deal, and it could pay off as soon as 2012. Lowrie has shown promise at the plate over the years and Weiland progressed steadily through the minors before struggling at the MLB level in a 2011 cameo. He's not considered a top prospect, but may contribute at the back of Houston's rotation.

The Astros moved Brett Myers to the bullpen, where he'll close again. Myers had been a dependable fixture in Houston's rotation, so it was surprising to see him move to the bullpen where he'll pitch in 60 innings, rather than 200. While it's important for the Astros to see what Jordan Lyles and Weiland can do at the Major League level, opportunities would no doubt have emerged even if Myers had started. Perhaps the Astros know something we don't or believe Myers will have more trade value out of the bullpen.

It will remain hard to assess the trade that sent Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero for Kevin Chapman until we learn the identity of the player to be named later heading to Houston. While Chapman's strikeout rates are intriguing, he appears to be a marginal prospect, so Astros fans are hoping for more. Luhnow told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that the player to be named will be a "key component" of the trade.

The Astros exercised remarkable caution this offseason. They didn't sign any extensions or agree to terms with any free agents who cost more than $1MM; Chris Snyder's $850K deal represented the Astros' biggest expenditure of the offseason. Splashy free agent signings may have generated buzz and goodwill, but they weren't a priority for an Astros team that lost 106 games last year. Better to save up for this year's first overall draft pick.

Luhnow claimed Fernando Martinez off of waivers, and the Astros will try and extract some value from the former Mets prospect this season. The 23-year-old doesn't have to become an impact MLB player to justify the claim. It makes sense for a team such as Houston to make 40-man roster space for a once-promising player who may become a useful fourth outfielder in time.

The Astros' most recent offseason wasn't about increasing the team's 2012 win total. Few will be surprised if the Astros lose 100 games again this year — it would actually represent a six game improvement over last year's team. But new leadership is in place and the Astros select first overall this June, so there's increased optimism that the Astros can draft and develop enough talent to contend for the postseason once again.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Jeter, Lincecum, Chisenhall

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 17, 2012 at 3:47pm CDT

In a piece inspired by early-season injuries to key relievers Tom Verducci of SI.com points out that closers tend to be inefficient investments. "No one wants to admit it," he writes, "but the modern bullpen is a failure." Here are the rest of today's links…

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he likes what he has seen from manager Ozzie Guillen despite last week's controversial remarks. “He’s very good for here," Loria said. "Excellent. Not only for here, for any team."
When the Yankees signed Derek Jeter to a three-year, $51MM contract two offseasons ago, they felt it was an overpay, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. But the shortstop played tremendously down the stretch in 2011 and has started the 2012 season well.
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants will likely want to see Tim Lincecum rebound from his early-season struggles before offering him an extension at market value.
Indians manager Manny Acta told Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall remains Cleveland's future third baseman and won’t become trade bait this summer (Twitter link, audio here).

List Of Top Young Pitchers Without Extensions

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 17, 2012 at 2:15pm CDT

MLB teams are working to keep their best pitchers off of the open market with contract extensions, and fewer elite arms are hitting free agency as a result of this emerging trend. In the past month alone, Matt Cain, Derek Holland, Jon Niese and Madison Bumgarner have signed long-term extensions that will postpone their free agency.

So who's going to hit free agency? Fortunately for teams without pitching, some under-30 starters are not signed to long-term deals (minimum 2.5 wins above replacement in 2011 per FanGraphs). The list below includes pitchers who are going year to year through arbitration, and those who are headed for free agency this coming offseason:

Eligible For Free Agency After 2012

Zack Greinke – 28 years old, 3.9 WAR in '11, 7.057 years of MLB service through '11
Edwin Jackson — 28 years old, 3.8 WAR in '11, 6.070 years of MLB service through '11
Cole Hamels – 28 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 5.143 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Brandon McCarthy – 28 years old, 4.7 WAR in '11, 5.122 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Anibal Sanchez – 28 years old, 3.8 WAR in '11, 5.099 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2013

Matt Garza – 28 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 4.149 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2014

Justin Masterson – 27 years old, 4.9 WAR in '11, 3.108 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Matt Harrison – 26 years old, 4.2 WAR in '11, 3.083 years of MLB service through '11
Max Scherzer – 27 years old, 2.8 WAR in '11, 3.079 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2015

Rick Porcello – 23 years old, 2.7 WAR in '11, 2.170 years of MLB service through '11
David Price – 26 years old, 4.7 WAR in '11, 2.164 years of MLB service through '11
Jordan Zimmermann -– 25 years old, 3.4 WAR in '11, 2.154 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Ian Kennedy – 27 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 2.124 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Mat Latos – 24 years old, 3.2 WAR in '11, 2.079 years of MLB service through '11
Doug Fister – 28 years old, 5.5 WAR in '11, 2.058 years of MLB service through '11
Philip Humber – 29 years old, 3.5 WAR in '11, 2.000 years of MLB service through '11

Eligible For Free Agency After 2016

Daniel Hudson — 25 years old, 4.9 WAR in '11, 1.117 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
Ivan Nova – 25 years old, 2.7 WAR in '11, 1.035 years of MLB service through '11
Brandon Beachy – 25 years old, 2.8 WAR in '11, 1.014 years of MLB service through '11
Michael Pineda – 23 years old, 3.4 WAR in '11, 1.000 years of MLB service through '11

Many of the pitchers above will eventually sign extensions that delay their arrival on the open market. For now, however, it remains possible that they'll test free agency.

Orioles Claim Luis Exposito, Designate Josh Bell

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 17, 2012 at 1:06pm CDT

The Orioles announced that they claimed catcher Luis Exposito off of waivers from the Red Sox. To create 40-man roster space for Exposito, Baltimore designated infielder Josh Bell for assignment.

The Red Sox designated Exposito and Michael Bowden for assignment in a recent roster shuffle. The 25-year-old Exposito spent last season at Triple-A, where he posted a .242/.298/.367 line in 359 plate appearances. He prevented one third of stolen base attempts from behind the plate.

Bell, once considered a top prospect, has fallen out of favor in Baltimore. He spent most of last season at Triple-A, where he posted a .253/.320/.438 line in 438 plate appearances as Norfolk's third baseman. He has a .485 OPS in 226 plate appearances at the MLB level.

Upcoming Ten And Five Rights

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 17, 2012 at 12:23pm CDT

Players who have accumulated ten years of major league service time can't be traded without their permission if they have spent the last five years with their current club. Here's a list of players whose ten and five rights kick in in the near future (service time through 2011 in parentheses):

Bronson Arroyo, Reds ( 9.150) – Arroyo will obtain ten and five rights late this month. If the Reds trade the right-hander, deferred payments are voided and paid up-front by his new team. It’s hard to imagine a trade involving Arroyo.
Brian Roberts, Orioles (9.131) – Roberts’ ten and five rights will kick in by the middle of May. However, his contract already provides him with full no-trade protection and no team would trade for him at this point.
Travis Hafner, Indians (9.009) – Hafner's rights will kick in this September, replacing the limited no-trade clause he currently enjoys. If the Indians retain Hafner for 2013 by exercising their club option or re-signing him as a free agent, he'll have full no-trade protection.

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