Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will look for a second baseman, relief pitching and rotation help this offseason. They might consider some of the top free agents available.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Bautista, OF: $57MM through 2016
- Ricky Romero, SP: $29.1MM through 2015
- Adam Lind, 1B: 12.3MM through 2014
- Yunel Escobar, SS: $10MM through 2013 (plus two club options)
- Mark Teahen, UT: $5.5MM through 2012
- Rajai Davis, OF: $3.25MM through 2012
- Minor leaguer Adeiny Hechavarria also has a guaranteed contract.
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Jesse Carlson, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Colby Rasmus, OF: $2.8MM
- Brandon Morrow, SP: $4.1MM
- Jesse Litsch, RP: $1.3MM
- Carlos Villanueva, RP: $2MM
- Casey Janssen, RP: $1.5MM
- Dustin McGowan, RP: $700K
Contract Options
- Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking)
- Jon Rauch, RP: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout (Type B ranking)
Free Agents
- Frank Francisco (Type B RP) Shawn Camp (Type B RP) Jose Molina (Type B C), Kelly Johnson (Type B 2B)
Trying to predict Alex Anthopoulos' next move is plain silly. A year ago this time, there seemed to be zero chance of trading Vernon Wells — and he's now an Angel. Before the 2011 season began, the Blue Jays' chances of acquiring Colby Rasmus seemed slim at best — yet he's Toronto's starting center fielder. There is no guessing what will happen next. A team that makes as many phone calls and weighs as many possibilities as the Blue Jays isn't going to be predictable.
We do know the Blue Jays need pitching and second base help. It's also fair to assume they'll consider a variety of trade possibilities throughout the offseason, given Anthopoulos' track record as a dealmaker.
It's conceivable that the Blue Jays will be tempted by big names this offseason. Elite free agents such as Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson would make the Blue Jays better, but it doesn't appear that Anthopoulos will offer any six or seven-year deals. Even if the Jays offer mega-contracts, top free agents may hesitate to join a team that hasn't reached the postseason since 1993.
It's no secret Anthopoulos has scouted Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays appear to have some interest in the 25-year-old right-hander and it won't be a surprise if Toronto emerges as a serious bidder. He and Ricky Romero would be terrific at the top of the rotation and signing Darvish wouldn't force the Blue Jays to surrender one of their prized draft picks.
Anthopoulos has acknowledged he'd like to improve the rotation, but he says the Jays won't be in the market for back-of-the-rotation pitchers. The Athletics, Braves and Rays could be willing to trade starting pitching in the right deal this winter, so expect the Blue Jays to keep tabs.
Though Blue Jays fans have long anticipated the arrivals of Fielder and Pujols on the open market, those two probably aren't signing in Toronto and president Paul Beeston knows it. First baseman Adam Lind's breakout 2009 season has become a distant memory after consecutive seasons with OBPs under .300. He has not produced enough, but he did reach the 20-homer plateau again (26) while dealing with back issues. Edwin Encarnacion remains an alternative to Lind at first base. I expect his strong finish will be enough for the Blue Jays to exercise the $3.5MM option they hold for 2012.
The Blue Jays also have an option for Jon Rauch, who missed most of the season's final month and is recovering from a right knee cartilage tear. His basic and peripheral stats dropped off in 2011, so, barring a handshake agreement with Rauch, I expect the Blue Jays to decline their $3.75MM option and let the 33-year-old go without offering arbitration, despite his Type B status.
Three of the Blue Jays' four other Type B free agents have a good chance of obtaining an arbitration offer. There's a case for extending offers to Frank Francisco, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina. All three could help the Blue Jays in 2012 and none would cost a prohibitive amount on a one-year deal. Shawn Camp, another Type B, gets ground balls and has been durable. While there's no doubt the Jays like the idea of getting a draft pick for Camp, he strikes out less than one batter per two innings and might cost $3MM, which reduces his chances of getting an arbitration offer.
If the Blue Jays offer arbitration to all eligible players except non-tender candidate Jesse Carlson and pick up Encarnacion's option while declining Rauch's, they'll have committed about $52MM to next year's payroll, not including minimum salary players. They've spent at least $70MM every season since 2006 and have publicly hinted at payrolls twice that high, so it's not a stretch to expect the Jays to have $20MM-plus at their disposal this offseason. It's also worth noting that the Blue Jays enjoy a stronger Canadian dollar than in years past.
Anthopoulos said after the season that he expects the Blue Jays to go outside of the organization for bullpen help, either through trades or free agency. This makes sense, though the Jays have some internal options. B.J. Ryan's contract is off the books, but the memory of his contract lives on. I don't expect the Jays to bid aggressively on the top free agent closers, especially those who cost draft picks.
Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch both excelled out of the bullpen and will be back along with right-hander Carlos Villanueva. Dustin McGowan returned after a three-year absence and should contribute again next year — if healthy. Luis Perez and Brad Mills give the Jays left-handed options, but they're otherwise short on lefties after trading Marc Rzepczynski and will presumably want to add southpaws this offseason.
Second base will be another focal point for the Blue Jays. Kelly Johnson is one of the winter's most appealing free agent second basemen and Anthopoulos expects to discuss a possible deal with the 29-year-old. The free agent market offers few appealing alternatives, so Anthopoulos could turn to the trade market if Johnson declines arbitration and signs elsewhere. Many expect the Blue Jays will make a serious run at John McDonald, the popular defensive specialist Toronto traded to Arizona along with Aaron Hill.
There's also left field, where Travis Snider was the organization's most disappointing position player in 2011 after showing signs of breaking out in 2010. Expect Eric Thames to get a good shot at the starting job after hitting 12 homers and posting a .769 OPS in 2011. Meanwhile, Rajai Davis can be an extra outfielder, so the Blue Jays have sufficient left field depth.
The Jays also have Jose Bautista, arguably the best hitter in the game, so it's no surprise that they ranked fifth in the American League with 743 runs scored last year. They could score even more with a full season from Brett Lawrie, who hit .293/.373/.580 after being called up.
If they add relief pitching and at least one starter this offseason, the Blue Jays will have a more complete team. With the playoffs likely expanding by 2012 or 2013, talented prospects ascending through the system and the possibility of payroll rising, there's hope Toronto can soon contend for a playoff spot in baseball's least forgiving division.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees
On this date in 1979, the Pirates beat the Orioles 4-1 to win the World Series in seven games. Willie Stargell, the '79 NL MVP, hit a two-run home run in the victory. Here are links for Monday night as we await the beginning of this year's World Series…
- Jim Callis of Baseball America envisions Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo in Boston's 2015 rotation.
- Callis also explains that the Dodgers weren't sure what they had when they drafted right-hander Edwin Jackson in 2001. He was athletic enough to pitch or play in the outfield.
- Bob Simpson, a co-chairman of the Rangers' board, told reporters, including Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com, that the Rangers are committed to sustaining their current level of play.
- Victor Martinez told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he's prepared to catch in 2012. The switch-hitter didn't catch at all after August 4th because of a knee sprain, but he's willing to don the tools of ignorance again. Martinez's health will affect Detroit's level of interest in backup catchers this offseason.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests it will be hard to get the Yankees to offer C.C. Sabathia much more than Cliff Lee obtained from the Phillies ($120MM over five years). Sabathia is expected to opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract this offseason and though he enjoys playing in New York, it doesn't seem like he's going to give the Yankees a hometown discount.
- The Yankees favor Yu Darvish over C.J. Wilson of the Rangers, according to Sherman.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer is highly regarded by the Angels. The Orioles hold D'Backs exec Jerry Dipoto in similarly high esteem, according to Olney (on Twitter).
Minor Moves: Brandon Boggs
Here are the latest minor moves from around MLB…
- Outfielder Brandon Boggs elected free agency, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Boggs, 28, appeared in 16 games for the Brewers in April and May before returning to Triple-A, where he posted a season line of .241/.381/.419 in 333 plate appearances. He drew 53 walks and collected 29 extra base hits as a corner outfielder in Nashville.
Service Time Breakdown For Mike Trout
If Kendrys Morales returns from his left ankle injury by Spring Training, Angels manager Mike Scioscia will have seven players competing for five spots. Morales, Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Mike Trout would have to share playing time in the outfield and at first and DH.
The issue could resolve itself or disappear completely in a number of ways. The Angels' new GM could make an unexpected trade. Trumbo could transition to third base. Someone could get hurt. Or, if all seven players are healthy, the Angels could consider demoting Trout.
The Angels called Trout up from Double-A before he turned 20, which suggests they aren't about to let service time considerations dominate their decision making. Still, it wouldn't be hard to argue that Trout could use more minor league seasoning. He was Baseball America's minor league player of the year, but he struggled to hit MLB pitching, posting a .220/.281/.390 line in 135 plate appearances with the Angels.
Trout picked up 83 days of service time in 2011, which means he's 89 days short of the 172-days required for a full year. If the Angels allow Trout to pick up 89 days of service time next year, he'll have a full year of service and be on track for free agency after 2017.
If the Angels want to keep Trout under their control for an extra year, they could option him to the minor leagues for the season's first three months. In doing so, they'd ensure that Trout doesn't pick up more than 88 days of service in 2011. Combine 85 or so days next year with the 83 days he picked up in '11 and he'll still fall short of a full year of service next offseason and remain under the Angels' control through 2018.
It's probably academic, as the Angels showed they're willing to call on Trout if they believe he can make their team better, even if it means risking an earlier free agent departure. Trout's development and the team's roster composition will likely outweigh service time considerations for the Angels in 2012.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Latest On Orioles’ GM Search: Dipoto, LaCava
The Orioles are starting to interview candidates for their GM opening this week. Here's the latest on the search:
- The Orioles will interview Jerry Dipoto of the Diamondbacks tomorrow and Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays on Wednesday, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). The Orioles haven't yet scheduled interviews with other candidates.
- The Orioles are still waiting to get permission from the Marlins to interview Dan Jennings, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links).
- The Orioles haven't yet asked permission to interview Tony Reagins of the Angels or Logan White or De Jon Watson of the Dodgers, according to Connolly.
- For more on LaCava, Dipoto, White and Watson check out MLBTR's GM Candidate pieces.
Heyman On Crawford, Pujols, Buehrle, Madson
At least one Molina brother has been in six of the past ten World Series, as Jon Heyman points out at SI.com (that includes Yadier, who will play again this year). Heyman also passes along some hot stove notes; here they are:
- Red Sox owner John Henry “threw $60MM into the air,'' by making it clear that he views the Carl Crawford signing as a mistake, according to one baseball person. Henry said on the airwaves of 98.5 the Sports Hub that he was not in favor of signing the left fielder for $142MM.
- One agent says Albert Pujols should look for a six-year, $240MM deal in free agency. It’s hard to imagine anyone, even Pujols, signing for $40MM per year.
- The White Sox are expected to try to keep Mark Buehrle on a two-year deal, according to Heyman. The left-hander profiles as a Type B free agent, as our rankings show.
- Jayson Werth, who played with Ryan Madson in Philadelphia, is trying to sell the free agent closer on the Nationals. Keep in mind that the Nationals already have Drew Storen.
- Zack Greinke told Heyman that he would have accepted a trade to the Rangers last winter, when the Royals were shopping him.
Red Sox Wanted Matt Garza For Epstein
The Red Sox asked the Cubs to include Matt Garza as compensation for GM Theo Epstein, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com. However, the Cubs declined and the sides have moved on to minor leaguers. The Red Sox currently appear to be focused on Cubs pitching prospect Trey McNutt.
White McNutt is a valuable prospect, he's not as desirable as Garza. The 27-year-old right-hander posted a 3.32 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 for the Cubs this year and remains under team control through 2013. It's no surprise that the Red Sox were interested and it's equally unsurprising that the Cubs balked at Boston's request. The Cubs acquired Garza from the Rays in the January deal that sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer to Tampa Bay.
McCourts Reach Divorce Settlement
The divorce of the couple that bought the Dodgers nearly eight years ago has finally been settled. Frank and Jamie McCourt confirmed that they have come to a financial agreement, according to the LA Times. Bill Shaikin of the Times, who first reported the settlement, reports that Jamie will obtain $130MM and relinquish any claim to a share of the Dodgers. She will no longer stand in the way of Frank's plan to sell the team's media rights.
As Shaikin notes, the agreement sets up a possible court showdown for the Dodgers between Bud Selig and Frank McCourt. The commissioner asked the Bankruptcy Court to order the Dodgers sold, but McCourt intends to keep the team, which he and Jamie purchased in 2004. The McCourts had reached a divorce settlement in June, but it was contingent on a TV deal with FOX that Selig rejected.
Despite the off-field distractions, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has indicated that he's willing to spend to improve the offense as dramatically as possible. Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols could draw interest from the Dodgers, who could consider a long-term deal for Matt Kemp.
Latest On Orioles’ GM Search: Avila, Ricciardi
The Orioles are searching for a successor to Andy MacPhail and we learned yesterday that they received permission to interview Diamondbacks executive Jerry Dipoto. Today, they're continuing to reach out to general manager candidates around the league. Here are the latest updates on Baltimore's search:
- The Marlins (Dan Jennings) and Tigers (Al Avila) can prevent top executives from interviewing with the Orioles, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun points out. Both Jennings and Avila are on long-term deals, so it's possible that the Orioles would have to offer their teams compensation to complete a deal. The Marlins have denied teams permission to interview Jennings three times before, according to Connolly.
- There's a sense that the Orioles haven't requested permission to speak with Avila or Dodgers executives Logan White and De Jon Watson, according to Connolly (Twitter link).
- Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com hears that the Orioles haven't yet contacted J.P. Ricciardi about their job opening (Twitter link).
- The Orioles received permission to interview Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, according to Connolly (Twitter links). The interviews for LaCava and Dipoto haven't been set up yet and are expected to take place in Baltimore next week.
- For more on LaCava and Dipoto, check out MLBTR's GM Candidate pieces from earlier in the summer.
- The Orioles contacted the Marlins seeking permission to interview Dan Jennings, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). However, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is in Europe, so the decision is on hold.
Red Sox Owner On Crawford, Epstein, Lucchino
Red Sox owner John Henry joined 98.5 The Sports Hub this afternoon to deny that Boston's upper management smeared Terry Francona and the Red Sox in the Boston Globe this week. He also discussed a number of Red Sox-related issues. Here are the details:
- Henry says he "personally opposed" the signing of Carl Crawford, but deferred to Boston's baseball operations department. Neither the Crawford signing nor the Adrian Gonzalez deal was a public relations move, according to Henry.
- Henry didn't deny that Theo Epstein has talked to another club, but he declined to comment further until there's something to announce. The Cubs are in the process of making Epstein their GM.
- Though Henry would have liked for Epstein to be Boston's GM for 20 years, he realizes "you don't always get what you want" and that being the GM in Boston comes with an immense amount of pressure.
- Henry expects CEO Larry Lucchino to sign a multiyear extension this offseason. His contract expires this year.
- Henry added that he wants to own the Red Sox for as long as he can.