MLB’s First-Year Managers
After an offseason of heavy managerial turnover, the 2011 season featured 12 skippers in their first full seasons with their current clubs. We checked in on the managers midseason and, now that the regular season is over, it's time to take another look at how the leadership changes have gone.
Keep in mind that teams' won-loss records reflect their players, their health and their opponents, not just the managers' work.
American League
Buck Showalter’s Orioles finished 69-93 and there are rumblings that he could move upstairs to the front office. John Farrell’s Blue Jays finished with a .500 record – 81-81 – in his first season as a manager.
Ned Yost led the Royals to a 71-91 record as Kansas City surpassed the 70-win plateau for just the second time in eight seasons. More importantly, Yost oversaw the big league debuts for top prospects like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Former Indians manager Eric Wedge had the punchless Mariners on the fringes of contention, until an extended slump dragged the team to the bottom of the AL West, where they finished with a 67-95 record.
National League
The Braves lost their grip on the NL Wild Card with a late-season slide and finished 89-73 under new manager Fredi Gonzalez. Terry Collins' Mets finished 77-85 and the club picked up Collins' 2013 option this week. Another NL East skipper, Edwin Rodriguez, resigned after the Marlins' record slipped to 32-39.
Ron Roenicke led the Brewers to a division title and a franchise record 96 wins. Mike Quade of the Cubs completed his first full season in Chicago with a 71-91 mark. Clint Hurdle's Pirates were in the playoff mix for four months and eventually finished under .500 again with a 72-90 record.
Kirk Gibson (pictured) is headed to the playoffs after leading the Diamondbacks to 94 wins and the NL West title. Another former big league star, Don Mattingly, led the Dodgers to an 82-79 mark after a slow start.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Marco Scutaro’s 2012 Option
If Red Sox fans are agonizing about Marco Scutaro today, it’s probably about his baserunning in last night’s loss to the Orioles, not about his contract option for 2012 and role on next year's team. But at some point this month, the Red Sox front office will have to decide whether to retain Scutaro or let him walk in search of big name replacements or in deference to Jose Iglesias’ glove.
Scutaro’s option is more complex than most; here’s how it breaks down: Boston has a $6MM option as part of the two-year, $12.5MM deal they agreed to after the 2009 campaign. If the Red Sox don't exercise Scutaro's option, he can remain in Boston for $3MM instead of taking a $1.5MM buyout.
Earlier in the year, when Scutaro was struggling and it was easier to dream on Iglesias, there didn't appear to be much of a chance that the Red Sox would pick up their side of the option. Now that the season's over, Scutaro's numbers are impressive. He has career highs in batting average and slugging percentage for a .299/.358/.423 line in 445 plate appearances. It’s no one-year blip, either. Only seven shortstops have contributed more wins above replacement (12.7) since 2008, according to FanGraphs’ version of the statistic.
Scutaro has always had a fantastic eye for the strike zone and his disciplined approach continued this year. He had a career-best 8.1% strikeout rate, finished with more walks (38) than strikeouts (36) and only Juan Pierre swung and missed at a lower percentage of pitches (min. 400 PAs, Scutaro's contact rate was 94.7%).
Scutaro, who turns 36 this offseason, can handle shortstop, though he doesn’t have Iglesias' defensive reputation and he can contribute on offense, though he might not have the same offensive upside as Jed Lowrie. If the Red Sox decide they can do without Scutaro, they could offer him arbitration after declining his option and obtain a compensatory draft pick in 2012, assuming he turns arbitration down and signs a Major League deal with another team.
There are better MLB shortstops out there, but Scutaro’s ability to play a premium defensive position, make contact and get on base is worth a lot. He’ll have no trouble drawing interest if he hits free agency and would have a strong case for another multiyear deal on the open market (Omar Infante just got one). I expect the Red Sox to pick up the option, since Scutaro has proven to be a valuable everyday player and there’s limited risk on a one-year commitment.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, Orioles
The AL East delivered two memorable games last night: the Rays overcame a 7-0 deficit with two Evan Longoria homers to beat the Yankees and the Orioles had a dramatic comeback of their own against the Red Sox. The result: the Rays play the Rangers in the ALDS and the Red Sox start preparing for the offseason. Here are some links from the division…
- Rob Bradford of WEEI.com says manager Terry Francona deserved better than this, though his decisions didn't always work out. It's unclear if the Red Sox want Francona back next year; they now have ten days to decide whether to pick up two $4.25MM options for 2012 and 2013.
- GM Theo Epstein, who admits this month has been "one for the ages," tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he and his staff were doing little things behind the scenes to stop the steady stream of losses (the Red Sox were 7-20 in September).
- It was because of Carl Crawford that the Rays initially installed low fences in the left field corner, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox for $142MM last offseason, missed a critical catch for Boston last night and it was Longoria who cleared the short wall with a game-winning home run.
- Orioles owner Peter Angelos, president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and manager Buck Showalter are scheduled to meet today, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. MacPhail is expected to step down, yet there's a sense that Angelos will want MacPhail around in some capacity. Showalter appears to be torn between his current role and the possibility of becoming the GM, according to Connolly.
Quick Hits: Burrell, Beltran, Lee, Kuo
Evan Longoria, Dan Johnson, Chris Carpenter and Robert Andino delivered in big moments for their respective teams on this incredible night of baseball, as the Cardinals and Rays won the wild cards. Some links as the season winds down…
- Pat Burrell told Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that he'll give his chronic foot strain a month to recover before he decides on his future in baseball. If he does play again, it would only be with the Giants.
- Carlos Beltran told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he'll give the Giants the first chance to sign him when he hits free agency this offseason (Twitter link). The Giants will have five days of exclusive negotiating rights after the World Series, plus the month of October.
- Carlos Lee hinted that he might retire after the 2012 season, when his six-year, $100MM contract expires with the Astros, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Lee, 35, says he wants to spend more time with his family.
- Hong-Chih Kuo told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that he needs a break and is currently unsure if he'll play again. "If I want to still play and somebody wants to give me a try, I play," he said. "If not, fine with me. I'll miss it." The 30-year-old was sidelined with an anxiety disorder this year and may return home to Taiwan and open a restaurant. The Dodgers will consider non-tendering Kuo and he said he'll understand if they do.
AL Central Notes: Cuddyer, Indians, White Sox
The Twins finish the season with 99 losses, their most since 1982, and will officially select second in next year’s draft. Here's a sampling of links from the AL Central on the night that Minnesota avoided loss #100:
- Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com that he'd like to have free agents Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan back in 2012 (Twitter links). MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined Cuddyer's free agent stock earlier in the month.
- The Indians announced that Sandy Alomar Jr. will become the club's bench coach in 2012. Tim Tolman, who was Manny Acta's bench coach this year, will transition into another role because of health reasons.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he "absolutely" has a preferred candidate to succeed Ozzie Guillen as manager. Alomar Jr., Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and even Red Sox manager Terry Francona are candidates for the job, according to Van Schouwen.
- The White Sox wanted Logan Morrison from the Marlins for Guillen, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Chicago relented because the Marlins were prepared to offer Bobby Valentine the job if they didn't get Guillen (Twitter link).
NL Central Notes: Cubs, Cordero, Pirates, Barmes
The Astros are playing spoiler against a former bitter rival of theirs tonight, as they try to halt the Cardinals’ improbable playoff bid. Here are some notes from the NL Central, while the two clubs play in Houston…
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts told Cubs reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that he's looking to name a GM as soon as possible, but cautions that there's "no point in rushing" the process. Ricketts pointed to the Diamondbacks to remind reporters that turnarounds can happen quickly in baseball under the right circumstances.
- Ricketts added that he expects GM candidates to see the four-year extension that director of player personnel Oneri Fleita obtained this summer as a positive.
- It's looking like the Reds will complete a deal with Francisco Cordero instead of picking up his $12MM option for 2012 ($1MM buyout), according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). We heard yesterday that Reds GM Walt Jocketty is optimistic about working out a deal with his closer. For the latest on Cordero and other MLB closers, check out CloserNews.com.
- Ryan Doumit told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he thinks his chances of returning to Pittsburgh in 2012 are "slim" (Twitter link). The Pirates hold a $7.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the backstop next year.
- Clint Barmes told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he would like to return to the Astros next year. However, the shortstop is open to exploring other options and he realizes that Houston’s ownership changes could affect offseason plans. Earlier in the month, I revisited the trade that sent Barmes to the Astros.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles
The Orioles host the Red Sox and the Rays host the Yankees in the 162nd game of the regular season tonight. The Red Sox and Rays are hoping that they will have advanced as the American League Wild Card team within a few hours, but there's a chance they'll have a play-in game tomorrow to determine which team gets the final playoff spot. Here's some off-field news about the AL East as Boston tries to hold off the O's and the Rays try to come back against the Yanks…
- Blue Jays manager John Farrell told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm that improving the rotation would be his top offseason priority.
- When Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked people in the know about Terry Francona's job security, he expected to hear that the skipper had nothing to worry about, but he heard otherwise. Some say the Red Sox manager hasn't stopped his players from getting out of shape and that he has made certain players feel over-privileged. Sherman also hears that Francona feels "bulletproof" after winning two World Series and has stopped attending to some of his job's minor responsibilities.
- The Cubs have reached out to Andrew Friedman, the Rays executive VP of baseball operations, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). It's hard to imagine Friedman entertaining the idea of joining the Cubs with his club so close to the playoffs.
- Orioles manager Buck Showalter told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that the club hasn't reached a "firm decision" about his role next year (Twitter links). The Orioles figure to reach a decision on their complex front office situation soon.
Nationals Notes: Johnson, Werth, Hernandez
Stephen Strasburg struck out ten Marlins without allowing a run over six innings of work in Washington's season finale this afternoon. Here are the latest links on the Nationals, who finish the season with an impressive 80-81 record…
- Nationals manager Davey Johnson told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he hopes to be managing the team again in 2012 (Twitter link). "I know I'm the best candidate," he said. Jon Heyman of SI.com has been reporting for a while that Johnson can have the Nationals' job if he wants it, though GM Mike Rizzo is expected to go through with a complete search.
- Jayson Werth bristles at the idea that 2011 was a lost season for him and the Nationals, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth feels that he's helped the team improve by working with other veterans to change its culture. Within Kilgore’s piece, Werth says he's not particularly good at dealing with failure and offers other insights into his first season with Washington.
- Livan Hernandez declined to say whether he and the Nationals have discussed a contract for next year, but he repeated his interest in re-signing with Washington, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
Hideki Matsui Likely To Return To Oakland
There’s a good chance that Hideki Matsui will re-sign with the A’s in 2012, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. There was already a strong possibility that Matsui would return and today’s news that the A’s and Mariners will open next year’s schedule in Tokyo only boosts the chances that he’ll spend another year with his current team.
Though the Athletics’ uncertain stadium situation could impact all free agent decisions, including ones related to Matsui, he’s more likely to return than any of Oakland’s other free agents. One A’s official told Slusser that Matsui is the one free agent the team would “seriously consider for a number of reasons.”
Team president Mike Crowley told Slusser that MLB would be “very happy” if the A's had Matsui on their roster to open the season against Ichiro Suzuki’s Mariners. That’s far from the driving force behind the team’s interest, though. Matsui, who definitely intends to play in 2012, will be available on a one-year deal and would probably not cost much more than $2MM, according to Slusser. He got along well with manager Bob Melvin and the A’s consider him a positive role model for young players. Plus, Matsui’s presence on the roster generates revenue in the form of sponsorships and merchandise sales.
Matsui, 37, has a .252/.322/.377 line with 12 homers in 581 plate appearances this season and does not project as a ranked free agent. He has recovered from a slow start to produce better results in the second half (.758 OPS since July 1st).
Jose Reyes’ Final Month: Part Two
About a month ago, I explained that each player to sign a free agent contract worth more than $100MM since the 2007-08 offseason capped his walk year with a healthy, productive final month. At the time, Jose Reyes was returning from an extended stint on the disabled list – his second trip to the DL of the season – and his free agent value was far from finalized.
“For Reyes to join Carl Crawford in the $100MM club,” I wrote at the time, “he’ll probably have to show interested teams that he has recovered from the left hamstring issue that sidelined him for the past three weeks. No matter what Reyes does, he won’t silence questions about his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. But if the 28-year-old can finish 2011 with one more month of electrifying play, he’ll have a stronger case for a contract worth $100MM or more.”
Whether or not you agree with Reyes’ decision to leave today’s game after raising his league-high average to .337 with a bunt single, there’s no denying that his final month has been statistically strong and, just as importantly, healthy. Reyes has appeared in 25 of the Mets’ 28 games and has a line of .340/.411/.443 for the month with four stolen bases in as many attempts and a pair of home runs (both homers came yesterday).
His season line sits at .337/.384/.493 and he has a league-leading 16 triples to go along with 31 doubles and 39 stolen bases. He's sixth among NL position players in FanGraphs' wins above replacement and there's a good chance he'll win the batting title over Ryan Braun.
Some teams will shy away from Reyes because of his injury history, but plenty of potential suitors are still out there. Will he obtain $100MM? Recent history says he has done his part. Now it’s up to team owners to make their offers.