Jeremy Affeldt’s Option & Free Agent Prospects
If the Giants allow Jeremy Affeldt to hit free agency this offseason instead of picking up the veteran left-hander’s $5MM option for 2012, his job prospects will probably be promising. Teams are always looking for southpaws to use out of the bullpen, Affeldt’s numbers are strong and the competition is weak.
Affeldt, whose season ended with a kitchen-related injury to his non-pitching hand, finished the year with a 2.63 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 62.1% ground ball rate in 61 2/3 innings this year. Those numbers reminded me of Scott Downs, the Angels left-hander who posted a 2.64 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 57.8% ground ball rate in 61 1/3 innings a year ago with the Blue Jays. The result for Downs: a three-year deal worth $15MM despite the Type A designation that hinders the earning potential of so many free agent relievers.
Even if San Francisco offers Affeldt arbitration, teams won’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign the projected Type B free agent. At 32 years of age, Affeldt remains relatively young – three years younger than Downs and markedly younger than most of the other free agent southpaws.
Peripheral stats such as xFIP (3.37), SIERA (2.88) and average fastball velocity (93.1 mph) all suggest that Affeldt’s impressive 2.63 ERA is no fluke. And while some lefty relievers post eye-catching stats because their managers barely let them face right-handers, Affeldt can hold off right-handed hitters, too (7.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 57.1% ground ball rate).
The competition in terms of free agent left-handed relievers doesn’t figure to be strong. There’s Darren Oliver, a 40-year-old who could very well cost a draft pick. Affeldt’s teammate, Javier Lopez, is a capable pitcher who walks one batter per two innings. Mike Gonzalez of the Rangers will draw interest, though he has had an up and down season. And George Sherrill has impressive stats, but he can’t be trusted against right-handed hitters. In other words, the free agent market is unimpressive.
Affeldt is a veteran of multiyear contracts, having signed one two-year deal with the Giants in 2008 and another one in 2010. If San Francisco turns down its 2012 option, Affeldt’s representatives at Moye Sports Associates will have a strong case for a third multiyear deal in free agency. Affeldt, the Giants' 2011 nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, would enter a market that won’t offer much in terms of free agent left-handers. Don’t be surprised if the Giants decline Affeldt’s option and he goes on to sign a multiyear deal for the third time in his career.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Cubs, Werth, Byrdak
The Cardinals won and the Braves lost, so only 2.5 games separate the two clubs in the National League Wild Card race. Here's the latest news from around MLB…
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn't say whether he intends to offer arbitration to Ross Ohlendorf this offseason, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Ohlendorf would earn a raise from his current $2.025MM salary if the Pirates tender him a contract this winter.
- The Cubs told scouting director Tim Wilken that he'll be back in 2012, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. There had been some rumblings that Wilken would receive a four-year extension like the one director of player personnel Oneri Fleita obtained, but Wilken will return on a one-year deal.
- Giants officials acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that it will be hard to bring back both Jeremy Affeldt ($5MM option) and Javier Lopez (free agent) next year. The two left-handers could hit free agency this offseason.
- Jayson Werth told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he still believes that the Nationals are headed for success. The outfielder hasn't lived up to his $126MM contract so far, but he says he has found his swing and regained his composure.
- Mike Mosa, the agent for Tim Byrdak, told MLBTR's Tim Dierkes that Byrdak's decision to sign an extension with the Mets had to do with the team's willingness to include an opt-out in his deal for 2011 (Twitter link).
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that serious analysts don't believe "that awards voting should be done according to an ordinal ranking" of the wins above replacement statistic. WAR is a tool that guides baseball fans, not an absolute statement about value or ability.
- In this week's edition of Ask BA, Jim Callis of Baseball America explains that he doubts we'll ever see an international draft because of all the logistics that would be involved. Commissioner Bud Selig has long supported a worldwide draft, which will come up during this round of collective bargaining.
AL West Notes: Wells, Mariners, Young
Brad Pitt says he now feels "a little bit romantic about the A's" after portraying GM Billy Beane in the Moneyball movie, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Here's the latest from Oakland's division…
- Vernon Wells, who could opt out of his contract this offseason, told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't expect to walk away from the three years and $63MM remaining on his deal. It will be a shock if he opts out given his .219/.252/.406 season line.
- The Mariners named Joe McIlvaine an assistant to GM Jack Zduriencik. The 64-year-old former Mets and Padres GM has spent the last 12 seasons working for the Twins. When MLBTR’s Howard Megdal ranked every GM in Mets history last October, McIlvaine placed fourth.
- Michael Young was the subject of near-constant trade rumors last offseason. He tells the Associated Press (link via ESPN) that he never really wanted to leave Texas, even after he requested a trade. The Rangers are glad they held on to Young, who has a .331/.374/.472 line with 40 doubles this year.
AL East Notes: Epstein, Crawford, Yankees
The Rays and Orioles are technically division rivals, but tonight they're on the same side. Baltimore beat the Red Sox in the first game of today's double-header and Rays fans are hoping for a second Orioles win this evening. A Baltimore sweep would shrink the gap between Tampa Bay and Boston to one game in the American League Wild Card race. Here are today's links…
- Congratulations to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who became the all-time saves leader when he shut the Twins down earlier today. The future Hall of Famer now has 602 career saves.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan says signing John Lackey was the worst blunder of Theo Eptsein's career and argues that the Red Sox GM deserves all of the criticism he is facing for Boston's fading pitching staff.
- Not sure whether you agree with Passan? Check out every move Epstein has made with the help of our Transaction Tracker.
- Carl Crawford, who signed a $142MM contract with the Red Sox last offseason, apologized to fans for his season in a blog post at ESPNBoston.com. "I'm sorry for the year I've had,” he said. “You guys have been really supportive and I appreciate that. Hopefully when we get into these playoffs, I can be the real Carl Crawford that I know I am."
- Ray Bartoszek, a former commodities trader, bought a minority share of the Yankees, according to the Star-Ledger.
Cubs Or Retirement For Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood, out for the rest of 2011 with a torn meniscus in his left knee, told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago that he will retire if the Cubs aren't interested in bringing him back in 2012. Wood, who intends to undergo surgery next week before beginning a six-week long recovery process, turned down more lucrative offers to return to Chicago on a one-year, $1.5MM contract last offseason.
The Cubs selected Wood in the first round of the 1995 draft and he has since developed strong ties in Chicago, where his family started the Wood Family Foundation this summer. In 51 innings of work, he posted a 3.35 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 35.8% ground ball rate this year. The two-time All-Star is still just 34, so he figures to have more innings in him if his health holds up.
Since the Cubs have yet to appoint a permanent GM, there's no guarantee that the team would like to have Wood back, but it's hard to imagine that there wouldn't be some mutual interest.
D’Backs Designate Tommy Manzella For Assignment
The Diamondbacks announced that they have designated infielder Tommy Manzella for assignment to create roster space for top pitching prospect Jarrod Parker. The D'Backs have 32 players on their active roster and their 40-man roster remains full.
Arizona claimed Manzella off of waivers in August, after the Astros designated him for assignment. The 28-year-old reported to Triple-A Reno and appeared in 22 games for the D'Backs' top affiliate. In 485 plate appearances for two Triple-A teams, Manzella hit .232/.315/.351 with eight home runs and 11 stolen bases this season.
Parker, a 2007 first round pick, entered the season as the #33 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. The 6'1" right-hander has the "stuff to become an ace," according to Baseball America, which placed him first among D'Backs prospects before the season. Parker pitched well in his first full year since undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of 2009. He posted a 3.79 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings at Double-A Mobile in '11.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Cody Ross
Cody Ross would have been better off hitting free agency last year, after the Giants won the World Series and Ross hit five postseason home runs on his way to winning the NLCS MVP. It's not that his season numbers are that different this year, but Ross would have had some buzz if he had hit free agency after his strong finish and postseason heroics in 2010. This year, San Francisco will in all likelihood miss the playoffs, so there's no way for Ross to supplement his pedestrian season stats.
The 30-year-old outfielder has a .240/.325/.405 line with 14 homers in 461 plate appearances for the Giants this year, not far off of the .269/.322/.413 line and 14 homers he had for the Marlins and Giants a year ago. Yet Ross no longer seems critical to the Giants’ success, as he did a year ago.
To his credit, Ross raised his walk rate to a career-best 10.6% in 2011 and played all three outfield positions, marking the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has appeared in left, center and right.
Though he hoped for a long-term extension with the Giants as recently as this spring, reality has since set in. The Giants seem unlikely to offer Ross a raise from his current $6.3MM salary or sign off on a multiyear deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
If the Giants are indeed hesitant to pay Ross more than $6.3MM, they may decide against offering arbitration after the season. Ross projects as a Type B free agent, which means San Francisco would obtain a top pick in next year’s draft if the New Mexico native declines their offer and signs elsewhere.
Given Ross’ free agent prospects, he could receive encouragement from his representatives at SFX to accept should the Giants offer arbitration. If they don’t offer arbitration, he would appear to be in line for a one-year Major League deal on the open market. He has had enough success in his career, particularly against left-handers (career .912 OPS), for teams to guarantee him a few million dollars and a roster spot, but his luster has disappeared, so a multiyear deal would now be a coup for Ross and his agency.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Draft, White Sox, Rodriguez, Nationals
On this date nine years ago, Curt Schilling struck out his 300th batter of the season, joining Randy Johnson to become the first teammates to each strike 300 hitters out in the same season. Here are the latest links from around MLB…
- Conor Glassey of Baseball America took an early look at the top 50 prospects for the 2012 draft (subs. req'd). Stanford right-hander Mark Appel tops the list, and Glassey says he has "Justin Verlander upside."
- Ozzie Guillen will decide his own fate, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). He can return to the White Sox if he wants to and if not the Marlins would love to have him.
- One executive told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that Francisco Rodriguez’s public comments about his displeasure setting up aren’t going to help him in free agency. ”Everybody is going to think he is a me-first guy, totally selfish,” the person said. “Why would you say those things right now?"
- Bill Price of the New York Daily News wonders if the Mets might be better off without Jose Reyes and David Wright.
- GM Mike Rizzo told the Philadelphia Daily News that the Nationals feel that they're going in the right direction. "Our young players are getting opportunities and we're progressing. So I think it kind of shows not only our fan base, but the organization itself that we are improving," Rizzo said.
- Paul Hagen of the Daily News wonders if Ryne Sandberg could end up managing in the Major Leagues next year.
Front Office Notes: Pirates, Mariners, Orioles
The Pirates and Mariners recently agreed to extensions with their respective general managers and it appears that the Orioles will soon have to look to replace president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. Here are the latest front office notes from around MLB…
- The Pirates announced six promotions in their baseball operations department. Former scouting director Greg Smith is now an assistant general manager, as is former director of player development Kyle Stark. Tyrone Brooks is the Pirates' new director of player personnel and Joe DelliCarri is now the amateur scouting director. The Pirates also promoted Larry Broadway to director of minor league operations and Kevan Graves to director of baseball operations.
- The Mariners announced that they hired Pete Vuckovich as a special assistant to GM Jack Zduriencik. The former Cy Young Award winner had worked on and off of the field for the Pirates in various roles since 1992. Vuckovich, now 58, won the 1982 American League Cy Young Award with the Brewers.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com is hearing John Hart's name as a possibility for the Orioles' GM job (Twitter link). Hart, the former GM of the Indians and Rangers, is close to Orioles manager Buck Showalter, which helps his candidacy.
No Six Or Seven-Year Deals For Blue Jays
The last time the Blue Jays signed a player to a seven-year deal, it didn’t work nearly as well as expected. Vernon Wells, who agreed to a seven-year, $126MM contract with the club in 2006, now plays in Anaheim and no one on the Blue Jays has anything more than a five-year deal. That’s not about to change, since president Paul Beeston won’t approve six or seven-year deals, according to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail.
Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, the offseason’s top free agents and the favorite targets of many would-be GMs in the stands at Rogers Centre, have set themselves up for six, seven or eight-year deals in free agency. Though Adam Lind has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in successive seasons, the Blue Jays remain hesitant to spend big on the open market.
“When we look at free agents, we better believe those guys are a clear upgrade over what we have internally,” Alex Anthopoulos told Blair.
The GM acknowledges that the 75-74 Blue Jays have some “pretty glaring” issues to address over the winter. However, the Blue Jays say they’re happier with the talent on the current edition of the team than they were this time last year.
When I examined the market for Pujols and Fielder last week, I suggested they were possible fits in Toronto.