Stark On Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Thome
The Dodgers and Marlins may turn out to be surprisingly big spenders this offseason, Jayson Stark writes at ESPN.com. Here are the details and the rest of Stark’s rumors…
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told Stark that he intends be aggressive in his attempts to retain key contributors this offseason. "It's our intent to sign some of our core guys long-term," Colletti said. "It's also our intent to improve the club." Colletti acknowledged that it “remains to be seen" whether the Dodgers’ ownership issues will affect the team’s attempts to lock up the likes of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Clayton Kershaw.
- Florida president David Samson told Stark that this offseason will be different than most for the Marlins. "With our payroll going up, we have a chance to put together a team at a payroll level we don't currently have," Samson said. Rival front offices get the sense that the Marlins plan to go all-in this offseason before moving into their new stadium.
- The Mets don’t appear to be interested in waiting around for Jose Reyes to weigh various offers this winter.
- Stark hears that Jim Thome is undecided about whether he’ll play in 2012.
- MLB won’t add playoff teams in 2012, according to Stark.
Neukom On Sabathia, Pujols, Beltran
The Giants announced this week that managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom is going to retire at the end of the year, but that hasn't stopped him from weighing in on some of the offseason's free agents. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest (all links go to Twitter):
- Neukom says the Giants “loved” C.C. Sabathia when he hit free agency after the 2008 season. ”I honestly believe he had a serious interest in coming with us." The Giants didn’t sign Sabathia since they weren’t prepared to pay "for years beyond which the time we think you’re not worth that amount of money.”
- Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this offseason.
- Neukom weighed in on Albert Pujols with openness that MLB executives rarely show when publicly discussing other teams. “Is he worth $30MM per year for ten years?,” Neukom asked. “The Yankees don’t need a first baseman. Nor does Boston. Maybe the Cubs. Maybe the Dodgers. But is there a wealthy team that can afford to do that, say to themselves he will not be worth it for the last three or four years of a ten-year deal but we can absorb that?”
- I examined the market for Pujols and Prince Fielder last week.
- Neukom guesses that agent Scott Boras will ask for a five or six-year deal for Carlos Beltran. The switch-hitting outfielder says he’d consider returning to the Giants if they find a way to add some offense.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Madson
A total of 17 relief pitchers signed multiyear deals last offseason and while there’s no guarantee that owners will spend just as freely this year, it won’t be surprising if they do. So with a number of closing jobs opening up around baseball, Ryan Madson’s job prospects are promising.
The 31-year-old right-hander has been consistently effective since returning to the bullpen in 2007, so agent Scott Boras will be able to point interested teams to an array of impressive stats. There’s Madson’s 2.63 ERA (supported by his 2.59 SIERA and 3.06 xFIP), his 94.1 mph fastball and his 31 saves. His peripheral stats are also strong – 0.33 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.7% ground ball rate – and he can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.
There's a line of thinking that opposes major commitments to relievers given the volatility of their stats from year to year and their limited ability to shape the outcome of a game or season (in relation to starting pitchers or position players). The era of four and five year deals for top closers may be over, but Boras can point to Madson's consistency in an attempt to obtain multiyear offers. The 6'6" Californian has kept his ERA at 3.26 or below, pitched at least 53 innings and struck out at least 6.9 batters per nine innings every season since 2007.
Like Jonathan Papelbon, who will probably be the top free agent reliever of the year, Madson projects as a Type A free agent. Given the Phillies’ need for relief help and Madson’s current salary of $4.5MM, an offer of arbitration seems likely. Assuming Madson declines, he’ll cost teams other than the Phillies a top pick in next year’s draft, which will reduce some clubs’ interest.
A pair of MLB executives recently predicted to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that Madson will sign a deal like the one Jose Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option (Valverde was a Type A free agent at the time). Madson seems destined for a multiyear deal and a three-year contract seems likely to me. Setup men such as Joaquin Benoit, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Scott Downs found three-year deals last winter and Boras obtained $35MM over three years for Rafael Soriano. It's hard to imagine Madson signing for that much money, but some general managers and owners will probably be willing to guarantee Madson a third year for the promise of bullpen stability.
Red Sox Notes: Fister, Harden, Adams, Orioles
The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…
- When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
- The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
- Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
- The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
- The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
- The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.
Beltran Would Consider Giants; Wants More Offense
Carlos Beltran won’t rule out the possibility of returning to San Francisco when he hits free agency after the season, but he’d like to see the Giants add some offense first, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. The expected return of Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez won’t necessarily be enough.
"I would consider this organization for sure, because the pitching is unbelievable, and adding [Posey and Sanchez] back, of course you're adding more offense to the ballclub," Beltran said."But I believe there should be a little bit more than that."
Beltran suggested that the Giants could use a leadoff hitter to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the National League in runs scored. Though the Scott Boras client doesn’t particularly like hitting in AT&T Park, he’s says that’s secondary to playing for a winning team.
A two-year, $22MM deal would likely stretch the Giants' budget, Baggarly writes. The asking price for the 34-year-old Beltran figures to be even higher. Outgoing CEO Bill Neukom suggested yesterday that Boras will start the bidding for Beltran at five or six years, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Quick Hits: Wilson, White Sox, Cubs, Fielder
Links for Thursday, before the Rays visit the Red Sox for a four-game series that's critical to the American League Wild Card race…
- Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker hears that Yu Darvish is undecided on whether it's the right time for him to join an MLB team. The Japanese right-hander could be available via the posting system this offseason.
- C.J. Wilson, who will hit free agency this winter, likes pitching under pressure in September, T.R. Sullivan writes at MLB.com. The Rangers left-hander has lowered his ERA (3.01) and walk rate (2.9 BB/9) this year, setting a career-high in innings pitched (209) with an improved strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) and an All-Star berth.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears from someone close to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen that there’s just a 10% chance the skipper will return to Chicago next year. Though Guillen is under contract in Chicago, he appears to be tiring of his current role and his relationship with GM Kenny Williams appears “unsalvageable,” Rosenthal reports.
- There’s almost no chance that the Cubs will have their next GM in place by the end of the month, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Morosi hears from one agent who expects the Cubs to try to get “the biggest name they can," and goes on to discuss some of the high-profile candidates who have been linked to the job.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com suggests the Orioles, Rangers or Dodgers could sign Prince Fielder this offseason (Twitter link).
Jacoby Ellsbury’s Arbitration Case
A year ago, Jacoby Ellsbury had nearly as many trips to the disabled list (three) as he did extra base hits (four), which tells you much of what you need to know about his season. It’s hard to imagine a more complete turnaround for the 28-year-old, who might be the American League’s MVP in 2011.
The increase in productivity foreshadows an offseason raise for Ellsbury, who will be arbitration eligible for the second time after the season. He earns $2.4MM this year and, as you might imagine, stands to earn much more through arbitration in 2012 and 2013 before hitting free agency after the ’13 campaign.
How much more? Let’s start by examining the case of Hunter Pence, a similar player who’s ahead of Ellsbury in terms of service time. Pence earned a $3.4MM raise last offseason after putting together a solid season in 2010.
Two weeks' worth of games remain this year, yet it’s already clear that Ellsbury’s platform season blows Pence’s away (see note 1). From a career standpoint, Ellsbury is comparable to where Pence was a year ago (see note 2).
With far better platform numbers and comparable career numbers, it won’t be hard for agent Scott Boras to argue that Ellsbury deserves a raise that exceeds the $3.4MM boost Pence obtained a year ago. In that sense, Pence’s raise is a springboard for Ellsbury.
Our latest projections have Ellsbury making $6.8MM next season, which would represent a $4.4MM raise (though it would fall short of Pence’s current $6.9MM salary). Ellsbury could earn significantly more than $6.8MM if he brings in lots of offseason hardware and no award would affect his bank account like the MVP.
Last year’s winner, Josh Hamilton, did not end up going to arbitration, but we have a sense of how his hearing would have gone from the numbers filed by his agency and the Rangers. Boras, who will no doubt mention Hamilton, will be careful in bringing filing numbers up, since arbitrators view them differently than actual, agreed upon salaries (see note 3). Hamilton filed for $12MM last year and the Rangers countered at $8.7MM, conceding that Hamilton’s MVP season had earned him a raise of at least $5.45MM (see note 4).
Jose Bautista, who emerged as one of the game’s best players last year, earned $2.4MM during his breakout year – exactly what Ellsbury earns this year. Like Hamilton, Bautista signed an extension before going to an arbitration hearing, though he completed the deal after the Blue Jays offered $7.6MM in arbitration. In other words, the Dominican slugger was headed for a worst-case-scenario raise of $5.2MM.
Hamilton and Bautista showed that players can overcome low career totals in arbitration with a huge platform year, but Ellsbury’s history won’t be forgotten. The Red Sox could point out Ellsbury’s shortcomings when it comes to length and consistency of career contribution if the sides go to a hearing.
He was limited to 18 games last year after fracturing his ribs in an April collision with Adrian Beltre and had three separate stints on the disabled list. While Boras might argue that the injury was fluky and doesn’t present long-term concerns, he wouldn’t debate that it will limit his client’s negotiating power (see note 5).
To match the raises Texas and Toronto offered their respective stars last winter, Boston would have to offer a 2012 salary in the $7.5-8MM range. Boras, of course, could file for considerably more. It’s early and Ellsbury’s earning potential depends on the season’s final two weeks, the playoffs and postseason award voting. Even at this point, we can safely say that he’s headed for a salary that exceeds $6MM. Millions more than that are within Ellsbury's grasp, not that the Red Sox are complaining.
Notes:
1 – Ellsbury already has more homers (27 vs. 25), more RBI (94 vs. 91), more runs (109 vs. 93), more stolen bases (36 vs. 18) a higher average (.320 vs .282), a better on-base percentage (.379 vs. .325) and a better slugging percentage (.544 vs. .461) than Pence posted in 2010. Ellsbury was an All-Star (Pence was not) and will collect MVP votes (Pence did not).
2 – Both have a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting and one All-Star selection. Pence had more homers (92 vs. 47), RBI (315 vs. 224) and a better slugging percentage (.481 vs. .446). Ellsbury has more runs (330 vs. 304), more stolen bases (172 vs. 54) a higher average (.300 vs. .287) and a better on-base percentage (.355 vs. .336). It’s also worth noting that Ellsbury has 22 games of postseason experience (.261/.316/.391 line with 5 steals) and a World Series ring, while Pence has never appeared in the playoffs.
3 – Similarly, the Red Sox have to be careful about pointing to the salaries Hamilton ($7.25MM) and Jose Bautista ($8MM) are earning in 2011, since the salaries are part of carefully structured mutliyear deals.
4 – Hamilton won a batting title and led the league in slugging percentage and OPS, but Ellsbury doesn’t lead the league in any traditional stats (he leads all of baseball in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement – not that there’s precedent for WAR convincing panels of arbitrators).
5 – If Ellsbury signs an extension – the Red Sox would like to lock him up – the discussion shifts once again, since the sides would have to value multiple future seasons instead of just one. It’s early but MLBTR projects that Ellsbury's salary could rise as high as $13MM in 2013, his last year before hitting the open market.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Matt Swartz contributed analysis to this post.
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Logan Morrison Files Grievance Against Marlins
Logan Morrison filed a grievance against the Marlins after they demoted him last month, Amy K. Nelson of ESPN.com reports. Though the Marlins have maintained that they demoted the 24-year-old left fielder for baseball reasons, Morrison and agent Fred Wray are arguing that the demotion was a form of discipline without just cause.
"I'm doing this because I'm standing up for what's right," Morrison told Nelson. "If I thought it was because of my performance on the field, then I wouldn't be filing a grievance."
Morrison missed an event with Marlins season ticket holders before his demotion and not long afterwards Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said that the outspoken Morrison needed to learn more about "being a Major Leaguer." Morrison, who spent ten days in the minors, filed the grievance on August 25th, according to Nelson.
Morrison wants big league pay for the time he spent in the minors, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (on Twitter). He can still obtain a full year of service time in 2011, so the demotion didn't affect his path to arbitration or free agency.
A’s Notes: Willingham, Wuertz, Harden
Though the A’s aren’t going to discuss possible deals with their free agents until the season ends, Susan Slusser previews the club’s decisions at the San Francisco Chronicle:
- Josh Willingham has said that he'd like to return to Oakland, according to Slusser. The 32-year-old, who established career highs in homers and RBI this year, projects as a Type A free agent in our latest rankings.
- Michael Wuertz told Slusser that he has recovered completely from the thumb injury that sidelined him in August. The A's have a $3.25MM option ($250K buyout) for Wuertz in 2012 and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes gets the sense that they'll decline it.
- Harden likes pitching in Oakland under pitching coach Ron Romanick so he could re-sign there this offseason if he’s healthy and the A’s are interested. Harden doesn't project as a ranked free agent, so compensatory draft picks won't be a consideration.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains that MLB remains desperate for a solution to Oakland's stadium issues, more than two years after establishing a committee to study the situation.