Ervin Santana Progressing Toward Deal
11:38am: MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter) that there's "no way" Santana signs today. Dierkes' source says that there are three to four teams with serious interest.
10:59am: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca hears from a source that Santana did indeed move closer to striking a deal this weekend. However, the Blue Jays "aren't the ones driving the sudden turn in his market," according to Davidi.
7:58am: The Orioles aren't close to a deal with Santana at this time, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio (Twitter link).
MONDAY, 7:12am: Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets that there's no interest in Santana from the Twins, but he hears that the Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, Yankees and Indians have all inquired on Santana within the past few days. Of course, the Dodgers signed Paul Maholm over the weekend, so they may no longer be in the market for another starter.
SUNDAY: Free agent starting pitcher Ervin Santana seems to finally be heading toward a deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. The Blue Jays and the Orioles have both been in touch with Santana. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, meanwhile, tweets that the Orioles will strongly pursue Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez this week.
Santana, of course, is coming off a strong 2013 season in which he posted a 3.24 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 211 innings with the Royals. His path to a new team has been blocked, however, first by the uncertainty regarding Masahiro Tanaka's destination, and now by the fact that the team that signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. As Rosenthal points out, the Jays' No. 9 and No. 11 picks are protected, which means they would only have to forfeit their No. 49 overall pick. The Orioles would lose their top draft choice, at No. 17.
Rosenthal notes that the Orioles are unlikely to be able to sign A.J. Burnett, as reports earlier this weekend indicated. They were among the finalists for Bronson Arroyo, but Arroyo recently agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks.
Paul Maholm And The Starting Pitching Market
The free-agent market for starting pitching has been slow to develop this offseason, but now that Masahiro Tanaka has chosen a team, signings are trickling in. Two recent NL West contracts demonstrate how uncertain that market can be. The Diamondbacks agreed to terms with Bronson Arroyo on a two-year, $23.5MM deal that includes an option for 2016, and the Dodgers signed Paul Maholm for one year and $1.5MM guaranteed, with the chance to make up to $5MM more in incentives.
There are clear differences between the two pitchers — Arroyo is a righty and Maholm is a lefty, and Arroyo has been the more durable of the two. That's a trend that might not persist, given that Arroyo is five years older than Maholm. But Maholm did miss a start in September due to elbow soreness (although an MRI revealed no structural trouble) and he pitched 49 fewer innings than Arroyo last year.
Arroyo and Maholm aren't that different, however. They're both low-upside, pitch-to-contact types who give their teams decent chances of winning as mid-rotation or back-of-the-rotation starters. And statistically, they're reasonably similar.
Arroyo
| Year | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| 2011 | 4.9 | 2.0 | -1.5 |
| 2012 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
Maholm
| Year | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| 2011 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 2012 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2013 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
One could actually make the case that, over the past three seasons, Maholm has been better than Arroyo. As Fangraphs' David Cameron noted yesterday (via Twitter), Maholm appears to be quite a bargain in comparison. (I made a similar observation at my own blog.)
Others have noted the huge disparity between Maholm's contract and that of Jason Vargas, who received four years and $32MM from the Royals earlier this winter. Like Maholm, Vargas is a 31-year-old, pitch-to-contact lefty. Vargas has produced 4.5 WAR over the last three seasons, compared to 4.6 for Maholm.
The common thread here may be the perception that Arroyo and Vargas are more likely to give their new teams 200 innings. (Vargas only pitched 150 last season after missing time due to a blood clot, but he threw at least 201 in both 2011 and 2012.) If that's the case, however, the market seems to be overreacting. In theory, a team could easily get two Maholm-type fragile pitchers and hope for them to combine for 250 or so decent innings, rather than paying Arroyo or Vargas many times more. A team would have to clear an extra spot on its roster that way, but that seems like a small matter compared to the savings in dollars.
In fact, in a way, this seems to be what the Dodgers are doing — they'll have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dan Haren for the first four spots, and then Maholm, Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley will soak up the remaining innings. (Beckett and Billingsley are both returning from injury.) If Arroyo posts 200 innings, that's surely useful, but given that his innings aren't the highest quality, a team should be able to compensate for reduced back-of-the-rotation certainty with greater depth.
Among Arroyo, Vargas and Maholm, Maholm is probably the outlier. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes' projection for Arroyo's contract was almost exactly on the money, while Maholm's contract, at least the guaranteed portion, falls well short of Dierkes' projected one year and $7MM. Perhaps teams are simply extremely concerned about Maholm's elbow. (In fact, that seems at least somewhat likely, given Maholm's apparent openness to pitching in relief. One would think a pitcher of his caliber would be able to find a sure starting job somewhere.)
If not, though, Maholm's deal doesn't bode well for a pitcher like lefty free agent Chris Capuano. Capuano's value has been similar to Vargas or Maholm the past three seasons (with 4.8 total fWAR), but he only pitched 105 2/3 innings last year due to a series of injuries, and he has two Tommy John surgeries in his past. Given Capuano's tendency to pitch reasonably strong innings when healthy, though, he could give his next team great value. Maholm's contract could be a bargain for the Dodgers, and the team that picks up Capuano could be in line for a bargain as well.
Quick Hits: Tanaka, Goldschmidt, Mattingly
The Diamondbacks didn't ultimately land Masahiro Tanaka, but the club feels that Paul Goldschmidt significantly helped their pursuit of the Japanese ace, Jules Tompkins of ArizonaSports.com reports. When the Diamondbacks met with Tanaka, they brought Goldschmidt along. "It was very interesting to watch the interaction between Tanaka and Goldy, it was very clear — even though the language barrier was there — that Tanaka was impressed that he was there," says Diamondbacks executive Ken Kendrick. "And he asked him several questions through the interpreter about our club and about Arizona." Here are more notes from around baseball.
- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly appreciates the confidence the organization showed in giving him a three-year contract, writes MLB.com's Barry M. Bloom. "The organization has shown confidence," Mattingly says. "I think it says that to fans, it says that to me and more importantly it says that to the players. It lets them know that we feel like this guy can do the job." Mattingly notes that one thing his contract doesn't give him is security — compared to the Dodgers' enormous payroll, Mattingly's contract is "a drop in the bucket," so if they feel the need to fire him, the contract likely won't constrain them.
- In addition to the obvious cultural differences, Tanaka will have to adjust to a number of other factors as he prepares for his debut with the Yankees, Anthony McCarron of New York Daily News writes. That includes the size of the ball and the textures of the mounds, as well as more power-centric opposing lineups.
Talks Quiet Between Stephen Drew, Mets
11:52pm: Carig now cites another source (via Twitter) who says that Drew and the Mets have had "continuous discussions."
9:53pm: Free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew and the Mets haven't talked much recently, Newsday's Marc Carig writes. "Regarding Drew, there has not been much dialogue at all," a source close to the Mets told Carig.
Heading into mid-February, there isn't much indication that Drew is close to signing. Red Sox GM Ben Cherington has said that he didn't expect his team to sign Drew before spring training started. Meanwhile, the Mets' level of interest has seemed tepid, even though they currently have Ruben Tejada, who struggled through a miserable 2013 season, penciled in as their starting shortstop. As with a number of high-profile free agents who remain unsigned, the issue of draft-pick forfeiture appears to have had a significant impact on Drew's market. As Carig notes, however, Drew's agent, Scott Boras, is no stranger to 11th-hour deals, and he has a week to go before position players report to spring training.
Pirates Notes: Offseason, Morales, First Base
Pirates GM Neal Huntington says that one reason for the Bucs' relatively quiet offseason is that they didn't want to make moves that would hurt them beyond 2014, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. "We'll see if those situations come back available," says Huntington. "If not, we feel good about this club, we feel good about our core. We've got some guys that are deserving of opportunities and if they can't capitalize on those, then we begin to look elsewhere." After an extremely successful 2013 season, the Pirates' only significant moves this offseason have been signing free agent starting pitcher Edinson Volquez and trading for former Yankees catcher Chris Stewart. A.J. Burnett, one of their top starting pitchers in 2013, remains on the free agent market. Here are more notes on the Pirates.
- Earlier today, one report suggested that, if the price were low enough, the Pirates would have interest in free agent Kendrys Morales to help them at first base. MLB.com's Tom Singer lists the pros and cons of signing Morales — Morales would help the Pirates at designated hitter in interleague series, Singer says, but his limited ability to play first base regularly is a detriment. Also, of course, there's the fact that Morales would cost the Pirates the No. 25 overall pick in the draft this June.
- The Pirates' current options at first base include Gaby Sanchez (who will almost certainly make the team as a strong option against lefties), Andrew Lambo and Chris McGuiness. But the Bucs will continue to search for a first baseman to start against right-handers, Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune-Review writes. They might not acquire him until the end of spring training, when teams might be more motivated to make trades as they try to set their rosters.
Week In Review: 2/2/14 – 2/8/14
Here’s a look back at this week at MLBTR.
Key Moves
- The Braves signed 1B Freddie Freeman to an eight-year extension. They also signed outfielder Jason Heyward to a two-year deal.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to sign SP Bronson Arroyo to a two-year deal with an option for 2016.
- The Mariners agreed to sign RP Fernando Rodney to a two-year deal.
- The Athletics signed OF Coco Crisp to a two-year extension for 2015 and 2016 that includes a vesting option for 2017.
Signed / Agreed To Terms
- Marlins – IF Jeff Baker (two years) and RP Carlos Marmol (one year)
- Dodgers – SP Paul Maholm (one year)
- Brewers – RP Francisco Rodriguez (one year)
- White Sox – P Mitchell Boggs (one year)
- Astros – SP Jerome Williams (one year)
Retired
- RPs Dan Wheeler and Joel Zumaya (link)
- OF Ryan Spilborghs (link)
Designated For Assignment
- Marlins – OF Jimmy Paredes (link)
- Astros – 1B Brett Wallace (link)
- Brewers – P Donovan Hand (link)
Key Minor-League Signings
- Nationals – RP Luis Ayala (link)
- Marlins – RP Chaz Roe (link)
- Dodgers – IF Justin Turner (link)
- Athletics – OF Sam Fuld (link)
- Mets – RP Kyle Farnsworth (link)
- Red Sox – OF Corey Brown (link)
- Cardinals – RP Pat Neshek (link)
Jeff Samardzija, Cubs Avoid Arbitration
The Cubs have avoided arbitration with pitcher Jeff Samardzija, signing him for one year and $5.345MM, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets. Samardzija had filed for $6.2MM and the Cubs had proposed $4.4MM, so the final figure comes in just above the $5.3MM midpoint. The two parties were to have their arbitration hearing on Monday. Samardzija is represented by Frontline.
This contract simply avoids arbitration for this season, and does not resolve the possibility of a long-term deal for Samardzija, who is eligible for free agency after 2015. There have also been recurring rumors that the rebuilding Cubs could trade Samardzija, although the most recent word is that, given the continued presence of solid starting pitching options (like A.J. Burnett, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana) on the free-agent market, the Cubs could wait until July to make a deal. Samardzija posted a 4.34 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 213 2/3 innings for the Cubs last season.
Free Agent Notes: Santana, Burres, Hanrahan, Madson
Johan Santana will throw for interested teams at some point soon, Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com tweets. When he does, the Twins will be in attendance. Yesterday, Santana himself indicated that he had begun throwing off a mound, the latest step in his recovery from shoulder surgery. Here are more notes on free agents, all of them pitchers.
- Brian Burres threw for teams on Thursday, and he will throw again on Monday in Florida, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned. Burres last appeared in the big leagues in 2011 with the Pirates. He spent 2012 in the Giants' system, and 2013 in Taiwan.
- The Red Sox continue to "check in on" reliever Joel Hanrahan, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports (via Twitter). Hanrahan's agent told MLBTR yesterday that Hanrahan would host a showcase for interested teams in March. Hanrahan is making his way back after a 2013 season mostly lost to elbow troubles.
- The Red Sox watched Ryan Madson on Friday in Arizona, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweets. Like Hanrahan, Madson is a once-dominant reliever trying to make his way back after dealing with elbow problems. The Phillies are among the teams that have shown interest in Madson, who last appeared in the big leagues in 2011 as a Phillie.
Quick Hits: Arroyo, Athletics, Bray, Cardinals, Brewers
The Diamondbacks' signing of Bronson Arroyo was a mistake, ESPN's Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law argues that Arroyo's declining velocity, tendency to give up homers, and struggles with lefties all make him a bad bet for two years and $23.5MM. Arroyo allowed 32 homers last season (although 19 of them were in the Reds' homer-friendly ballpark), and lefties hit .295/.327/.529 against him. He's also had an average fastball velocity of about 87 MPH the past several seasons, which Law suggests has been one cause of his home-run problems. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- GM Billy Beane says the Athletics are done making significant moves this offseason, Jane Lee of MLB.com tweets. The A's have been busy this winter, adding Scott Kazmir, Jim Johnson, Luke Gregerson and Eric O'Flaherty to their pitching staff and Nick Punto to their infield. They also lost Bartolo Colon, Grant Balfour, and Chris Young via free agency, traded Brett Anderson and Jerry Blevins and signed Coco Crisp to an extension.
- Lefty reliever Bill Bray wants to continue his career, but might wait until May to sign, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (via Twitter). Bray pitched just four games in the Nationals system in 2013, missing most of the season due to injuries. He last appeared in the big leagues in 2012 with the Reds.
- The Cardinals have the flexibility to make a significant move this spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. After the departures of Carlos Beltran, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook and Rafael Furcal, among others, the Cardinals' payroll is down significantly from last season, even after the addition of Jhonny Peralta. Their free payroll and strong collection of young pitching mean they'll be able to make a big trade if the right opportunity presents itself.
- Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel looks ahead to the July 2nd market for international prospects. He notes rumors that Dominican third baseman Gilbert Lara already has a $3.2MM deal in place with the Brewers, not generally a team known for splashy international signings. Dominican shortstop Dermis Garcia, meanwhile, reportedly has a $3MM deal in place with the Yankees, who figure to be big spenders in the international market this summer.
Vinnie Pestano Loses Arbitration Case
Indians reliever Vinnie Pestano has lost his arbitration case, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweets. Pestano, who was eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player, sought $1.45MM, but he will receive $975K. He is represented by PSI Sports Management.
Pestano posted a 4.08 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 in 35 1/3 innings for Cleveland in 2013, and those numbers were significantly worse than those of his strong 2011 and 2012 seasons. The Indians blame an elbow injury Pestano suffered while pitching in the WBC in March, which led to changes in his mechanics.