Quick Hits: Wacha, Kawasaki, Mariners, Gomez
The Cardinals will need another starter on Thursday to replace John Gast, and that could be Michael Wacha, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. Wacha, who would be making his big-league debut, was scratched from his start Sunday, which the Cardinals now say is due to his innings count so far this year. Wacha ranked No. 76 in both MLB.com's and Baseball America's preseason top prospects lists, and he has pitched well so far in 2013 at Triple-A Memphis (albeit with a low strikeout rate), posting a 2.05 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Cards GM John Mozeliak says that the team will likely decide on Tuesday who will make Thursday's start. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- It's unclear what will happen to infielder Munenori Kawasaki of the Blue Jays once Jose Reyes returns, but Jays manager John Gibbons would like Kawasaki to stick around, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports. "When the time comes, we'd definitely like to keep him, that's for sure. But we don't know when Reyes is coming back, either." Kawasaki has become a fan favorite, and he has played decently, hitting .247/.345/.320. But Chisholm notes that the Jays already have Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa.
- It's a bad day for the Mariners' rebuilding efforts, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes. The Mariners promoted prospect Nick Franklin but demoted former No. 2 overall draft pick Dustin Ackley in the process. That move followed the demotion of Jesus Montero. Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders haven't hit particularly well, and Brandon Maurer has struggled. "Right now, the Mariners are being carried by a bunch of veterans on one-year deals who were supposed to be here to round out that young core and help stabilize the environment through which young guys were going to take their games to the next level," says Baker, noting that Kyle Seager is the only starting player who has accomplished that.
- Ron Gardenhire feels Carlos Gomez of the Brewers "learned a lot" from his time with the Twins, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports. Gomez played with the Twins for two years before heading to Milwaukee in exchange for J.J. Hardy after the 2009 season. The Twins tried to help Gomez calm down as a player, McCalvy writes. "I thought he learned a lot with us," Gardenhire says. "Gomez was a lot of fun. I think everybody knew it from the time he was with the Mets, how much talent he had, if he could ever harness it and calm himself down enough."
- It's questionable whether the Angels and Dodgers have spent their money well, but it's important that they're spending, says Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "You can't win on scouting and player development alone. That is a foundation, with free agency a necessary supplement. Spending does not guarantee winning, but spending absolutely correlates with winning," says Shaikin. Still, Shaikin notes that the Angels' core of homegrown players includes Mike Trout, Jered Weaver, and Howie Kendrick; the Dodgers' includes Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Shaikin quotes Dodgers president Stan Kasten, who reiterates that his team's long-term plan is to build through its farm system, just as the Braves did when Kasten worked there.
- The Cubs aren't quite ready to declare themselves sellers, but it sounds like they're getting there, ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers reports. GM Jed Hoyer says that teams begin to assess their trading options "50-60 games within the deadline." Hoyer adds, "You always hold out hope you can string things together and make a run. It’s really hard in this division, I’ll say that. You have three teams playing really well." In a recent poll, MLBTR readers thought the Cubs' Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano were among the players most likely to be traded.
Mets Notes: Hughes, Wheeler
The Yankees' Phil Hughes could be a possible free-agent fit for the Mets this winter, MLB.com's Anthony DiComo tweets. Hughes' fly-ball tendencies would make homer-suppressing Citi Field a good ballpark for him, and the Mets will have plenty of money available, DiComo argues. Hughes has a 5.51 ERA so far this year, with 8.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Here are more notes from the Mets.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson says he "wouldn't say there's a timetable" for the promotion of Zack Wheeler, Fred Kerber of the New York Post reports. But it sounds like it won't be long. "I would say that if he continues to pitch well, he’d be here sometime in the near future," says Alderson. Wheeler struggled Monday for Triple-A Las Vegas against Salt Lake, allowing five runs, three earned, and two home runs in four innings while striking out four and walking three. For the season, Wheeler has a 4.13 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 while playing in the tough pitching environment of Las Vegas.
- Wheeler feels like he's "just waiting on time," the Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa writes. "I think I'm ready, but it is really not my decision." Costa notes that Wheeler's service time clock could play a role in the Mets' decision, citing potential concerns that he could become a Super Two player and become eligible for arbitration after the 2015 season. Costa also discusses comparisons between Wheeler and Matt Harvey, and notes that it will be very difficult for Wheeler's start in the majors to equal Harvey's even if Wheeler pitches brilliantly. Harvey's phenomenal start to his career has lifted him above Wheeler in status, even though Wheeler has pitched perfectly well in his own right.
Draft Notes: Gray, Manaea, Ball, Twins
Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray's strong performance in the Big 12 conference tournament increased the likelihood that the Astros will pick him No. 1 overall, ESPN.com's Christopher Crawford writes (Insider-only). Crawford also quotes a scout who says that Indiana State's Sean Manaea — thought to be a top pick before the season — is "not a first-round prospect to me," and suggests Manaea may be best served by not signing and returning to school. Manaea was pulled from a recent start with shoulder tightness. Crawford's piece also contains details about Mark Appel and many of this draft class' top hitters. Here are more notes on the draft.
- Indiana high-schooler Trey Ball tops the list of two-way players available in this year's draft, Baseball America's Jim Callis says. Teams now prefer Ball as a pitcher, and it looks likely he'll be selected in the first 10 picks or so. Another two-way player is Cal State-Fullerton's Michael Lorenzen, who will be drafted as a center fielder, Callis says.
- If the Twins wish to avoid Scott Boras with the No. 4 overall pick in the upcoming draft, their best bets are high school pitcher Kohl Stewart or high school catcher Reese McGuire, ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson tweets. Stewart is being advised by Derek Braunecker and McGuire by Matt Sosnick, Wolfson says.
How Valuable Are Competitive Balance Draft Picks?
This year’s draft will be the first to feature competitive balance draft picks. These picks, which go to small-market and low-revenue teams, were awarded in a lottery last year. Some will take place after the first round, others after the second round. Unlike with regular draft picks, it’s possible for teams to trade competitive balance picks, which means that each team surely has decided how much these picks are worth.
This is the full draft order. The competitive balance picks are as follows:
34. Royals
35. Marlins (from Pirates)
36. Diamondbacks
37. Orioles
38. Reds
39. Tigers (from Marlins)
69. Padres
70. Rockies
71. A’s
72. Brewers
73. Marlins (from Tigers)
A 2009 study by Baseball Analysts’ Sky Andrecheck suggested that the average value of the No. 30 overall pick was 3.6 WAR — basically, the equivalent of about two decent seasons for a role player. The value of the competititve balance picks from No. 34 to No. 39, then, would be slightly less. Placing a numerical value on these draft picks in the current draft environment is tricky, however, because so much about the draft has changed in the past two years. Unlike in years past, teams are reined in by bonus pool allotments, so they aren’t picking players for the same reasons they used to.
Teams can trade competitive balance picks, and two trades have already occurred, both of them involving the Marlins. The Pirates traded (what turned out to be) their No. 35 pick to Miami, along with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, for first baseman Gaby Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Kyle Kaminska. The Marlins also traded their own competitive balance pick to the Tigers in the Anibal Sanchez deal, receiving the Tigers’ pick in return.
The Gaby Sanchez deal is a lot simpler, so let’s work from there. Hernandez and Kaminska weren’t key parts of the trade, so the deal boils down to Gaby Sanchez for the No. 35 overall pick. Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained the rationale behind the deal in an interview with David Todd on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh (beginning at around 12:30).
“You see a David Wright, and you recognize, man, there’s a comp pick and there’s the risk, is we may have given up David Wright,” Huntington says. (Obviously, Wright wasn’t a competitive balance pick, but he was the No. 38 overall pick in the draft in 2001.)
“But … you recognize there’s about a 15% chance of getting an everyday big-leaguer in the 30-to-40 pick range,” says Huntington. “We felt like it was worth that 15% chance that we were going to get an everyday big-leaguer.
“You’ve also got a smaller chance to get an impact guy like David Wright, but you’ve got about a 60% miss rate at those picks, and in our minds, it’s going to be even [higher] now that the draft is much more scripted than it’s ever been.”
A look at recent draft history reveals Huntington’s analysis to be essentially correct. Let’s look at the 30-40 pick range from the 2001 through 2005 drafts. (Although Huntington mentioned the “30-to-40 pick range,” the No. 30 pick will typically be a traditional first-round pick, not a competitive-balance pick.)
2001: Noah Lowry (30), Jeff Mathis (33), Bronson Sardinha (34), J.D. Martin (35), John Rheinecker (37), David Wright (38)
2002: Dan Meyer (34), Jeremy Brown (35), Mark Teahen (39)
2003: Mitch Maier (30), Matt Murton (32), Omar Quintanilla (33), Luis Atilano (35), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36), Adam Jones (37), James Houser (38), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (39), Jay Sborz (40)
2004: Eric Hurley (30), J.P. Howell (31), Zach Jackson (32), Matt Fox (35), Danny Putnam (36), Gio Gonzalez (38), Huston Street (40)
2005: Tyler Greene (30), Ryan Tucker (34), Cesar Ramos (35), Travis Buck (36), Trevor Bell (37)
This distribution of outcomes is fairly telling — in 55 picks, there’s one superstar (Wright), two very good players (Jones and Gonzalez), a good closer (Street), a decent regular (Saltalamacchia) and a smattering of role players. This was a better five-year period for picks 31 through 40 than the five-year periods before or after it, and still the chances of nabbing a meaningful player with one of those picks was, it appears, relatively small. For competitive balance picks after the second round, the chances of grabbing a good player are even smaller. (Well, at least theoretically. From 2001 through 2005, the list of quality players chosen between No. 66 and No. 75 includes Dan Haren, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Chase Headley. That’s not bad.)
Gaby Sanchez, who has produced 0.4 WAR for the Pirates this season, is more valuable than most players from the 31 through 40 range who made the majors, and obviously also more valuable than the ones who didn’t make the majors. He’s also cheap, making $1.75MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Notably, though, the Pirates quickly slotted him into the short end of a platoon role, meaning that they recognized him as a part-time player.
Is it worth it to give up a shot at the next David Wright for a part-time player? That depends on how great the shot is, and the position of the franchise making the trade. The Marlins were selling off their disappointing 2012 team at the time of the Sanchez deal, so it made sense for them to take a shot in the dark at finding the next David Wright. But the Pirates were trying to position themselves as a contender, so Sanchez had more value for them than a shot in the dark did.
Another consideration is the bonus pool allotment for competitive balance picks. Last year’s pool value for the No. 35 pick was $1.4MM; this year, that figure will be slightly higher. So the Marlins will have a little over $1.4MM extra to distribute to all its draft picks, assuming they sign whoever they take at No. 35, while the Pirates will forfeit the ability to spend that money. The Astros, for example, used a large bonus pool to their advantage in the later rounds last year, signing players like Lance McCullers Jr. for well over the bonus recommendation.
In the next few years, teams’ ability to trade competitive balance selections should allow us to begin to see how teams value draft picks. The competitive balance picks are late enough in the draft that they’re fairly low-percentage plays. They’re still valuable, however, so we should see rebuilding small-market and low-revenue teams try to acquire them — either one-for-one (or more or less one-for-one) for role players like Gaby Sanchez, or as part of packages in deals involving more premium talents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals To Promote Nate Karns
The Nationals will promote pitcher Nate Karns, who will start against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles tomorrow, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post notes (on Twitter). Karns will start in place of Ross Detwiler, who has a right oblique strain.
Karns ranked 99th on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list (Insider-only). He did not rank in Baseball America or MLB.com's lists. Law notes that Karns "was 93-97 as a starter with a yellow hammer of a curveball at 80-85 that he threw for more and more strikes as the season went on, meaning he could have two pitches that grade out at 70 on the 20-80 scale." Baseball America's Prospect Handbook lists Karns as the Nationals' fifth-best prospect and pegs him as a future mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever.
Karns, 25, had pitched this season at Double-A Harrisburg, posting a 4.60 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. He has not yet pitched at the Triple-A level, so his promotion qualifies as a bit of a surprise. It appears likely that the Nationals will send Karns down at some point, but if they don't, he will accumulate 125 days of service time this year. That means he might be eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2015 season, although the exact date that will establish the threshold of Super Two eligibility that season is unclear. He would be eligible for free agency after the 2019 season.
Quick Hits: Angels, Yost, Cardinals, Cubs
The city of Anaheim and the Angels have begun discussions about renovating Angel Stadium and keeping the Angels in Anaheim, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports. There were, of course, tensions between the two sides when, years ago, Angels owner Arte Moreno changed the name of the team to include Los Angeles, but Anaheim mayor Tom Tait sounds ready to let bygones be bygones. "It makes sense to move along, to put the past in the past and work for the future," he says. The Angels can leave Anaheim after 2016, Shaikin notes, but it sounds like both sides are committed to keeping the Angels where they are. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- The Angels have done well recently, but the former teams of big-name Angels free agent signings Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols have been even better, CBS.com's Scott Miller notes. The Angels signed Hamilton and C.J. Wilson from the Rangers, but Texas now has the second-best record in the Majors, in part because it used the money it saved on Wilson to get Yu Darvish. The Cardinals, from whom the Angels signed Pujols, currently have the best record in the big leagues.
- Royals manager Ned Yost is trying to "stay positive and stay supportive," Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports. The Royals' recent struggles — they're now 21-26 and have lost five in a row — have led to questions about Yost's job security. Still, Mellinger writes that Yost will keep his job as long as the clubhouse remains upbeat.
- Yost spoke with Royals owner David Glass on Sunday, Dick Kaegel of MLB.com writes, noting that it's not particularly unusual for Yost and Glass to meet. "Mr. Glass has frustrations like all of us. He wants to win as much or more than any of us," says Yost. "I'm glad he came down."
- When the newly-promoted Michael Blazek makes his big-league debut, he'll become the 9th 25-or-younger pitcher for the Cardinals this year, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com notes. That 25-or-younger crowd includes top prospects Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez, along with flamethrowing reliever Trevor Rosenthal.
- A number of Cubs players could be headed to other team in July, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Wittenmyer's list of potential departures includes Scott Feldman, Kevin Gregg, David DeJesus, Matt Garza and Carlos Marmol. Feldman, DeJesus, Garza and Marmol all figured in Tim Dierkes' recent poll about which high-profile players will be traded this summer, and so did another Cub, Alfonso Soriano. Wittenmyer notes that Garza could also receive an extension or a qualifying offer if the Cubs don't like what they're offered on the trade market.
Draft Notes: Gray, Astros, Pirates, Crawford
"Buzz is growing" that the Astros will take Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray (rather than, among others, Stanford pitcher Mark Appel) with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes. Gray was recently named the Most Outstanding Player in the Big 12 tournament, says Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). Here are more notes on the draft.
- Potential choices for the Pirates with the 9th and 14th picks in the draft include high school pitchers Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, and college hitter D.J. Peterson, write Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford of ESPN.com (Insider-only). Many mock drafts have Stewart coming off the board before the Pirates pick at No. 9, but a high-upside arm like Stewart's would surely be tempting if it fell that far. Churchill and Crawford list their potential fits for other NL Central teams as well, so be sure to check that out.
- The top of this year's draft is thinner at the middle infield positions than in years past, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo writes. "It's about as weak as it's been in recent memory," says a scouting director. "It seems like we might not have one go off in the top 15 picks, which would be unusual. I think that speaks to the weakness of the class." California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford, Carl Crawford's nephew, is likely to be the middle infielder drafted first.
- The Wall Street Journal's Tim Marchman, meanwhile, asks whether Major League Baseball even ought to have a draft. Marchman suggests that the draft is "inefficient," (by which he means that the top talents are more difficult to identify than they are in, say, the NBA) and also "unjust" (by which he means that players can't just sign where they want). Marchman proposes simply scrapping the draft and making amateur player acquisition an open market, suggesting that would be the best way to "spread the talent around." It's hard to see how such a system would distribute talent evenly, however — lower-payroll teams and teams in northern markets (most draft-eligible players come from the South and Southwest) would likely struggle to attract notable players.
Week In Review: 5/19/13 – 5/25/13
Here's a look back at the week that was here at MLBTR.
- The Yankees claimed pitcher David Huff off waivers from the Indians, and designated Francisco Rondon for assignment.
- The Rangers claimed outfielder Joe Benson off waivers from the Twins. They also placed pitcher Derek Lowe on release waivers.
- The Cubs claimed reliever Eduardo Sanchez from the Cardinals.
- The Yankees designated outfielder Ben Francisco for assignment.
- The Angels designated pitcher Billy Buckner for assignment.
- The Orioles designated reliever Alex Burnett for assignment.
- The Nationals designated pitcher Yunesky Maya for assignment.
- The Mariners designated infielder Robert Andino for assignment.
- The Cubs designated reliever Michael Bowden for assignment.
- The White Sox offered Rule 5 pick Angel Sanchez back to the Angels, but the Angels declined the offer, and the White Sox outrighted Sanchez to Triple-A Charlotte.
- Athletics reliever Chris Resop and first baseman Daric Barton cleared waivers, and the A's outrighted them to Triple-A Sacramento.
- The Angels outrighted outfielder Scott Cousins to Triple-A Salt Lake.
- The Yankees outrighted infielder Alberto Gonzalez to Triple-A Scranton.
- The Mets signed reliever David Aardsma to a minor-league deal.
- The Red Sox signed reliever Rafael Perez to a minor-league deal.
- The Rangers signed utilityman Mark Teahen to a minor-league deal after the Diamondbacks granted him his release.
- The Diamondbacks signed outfielder Dustin Martin to a minor-league deal.
- The Orioles signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a minor-league deal.
- The Blue Jays released pitcher Miguel Batista.
- The Orioles acquired minor-league infielder Josh Horton from the Athletics for cash or a PTBNL.
- The Rockies acquired minor-league infielder Drew Garcia from the White Sox for a PTBNL.
- Pitcher Scott Proctor retired.
- Pitcher Blaine Boyer signed with Japan's Hanshin Tigers.
- Infielder Wilson Valdez signed with the independent Camden Riversharks.
- Reliever Royce Ring signed with the Long Island Ducks.
- Orioles minor-leaguer Dan Klein retired. Also, the Orioles released minor-league pitcher Zach Braddock.
Quick Hits: Angels, Montero, Gomes, Dodgers
Miguel Cabrera might have been hitting home runs in Anaheim if the Angels had been able to swing a deal for him in 2007, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. The Marlins had Cabrera on the trade market, and the Angels offered Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis and either Ervin Santana or Nick Adenhart. But the Marlins wanted both Santana and Adenhart, and the Angels changed their minds about dealing Kendrick, and the trade fell through. Had the deal worked out, Shaikin says, Cabrera could have joined with fellow 2012 MVP candidate Mike Trout in the Angels' lineup. (Of course, Trout was acquired with the No. 25 pick in the 2009 Draft, which was a compensation pick for losing Mark Teixeira. If the Angels had acquired Cabrera, they might not have acquired Teixeira, which means it's possible they wouldn't have drafted Trout. They also would have had to sign Cabrera to a long-term deal, the way the Tigers did. Reimagining history can be complicated.)
The Marlins' side of the deal would have worked out a bit better, too. We'll never know what might have been with Adenhart, who died in an accident in 2009, and Mathis hasn't hit well. But Kendrick turned out to be a better player than any the Marlins got when they sent Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for a package centered around Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin.
Here are more notes from around MLB.
- After Jesus Montero's demotion, his role in the Mariners' future is unclear, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. Mike Zunino now appears to be the Mariners' future catcher, and Montero will work on playing first base at Triple-A Tacoma. If Montero will play predominantly first base and designated hitter going forward, that puts him in an awkward position, because one of the reasons he was sent down in the first place was that his hitting wasn't particularly good even for a catcher. Still, the door remains open to Montero, Morosi notes, since Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak has not hit well, and main DH Kendrys Morales will be a free agent at the end of the season.
- Yan Gomes' play so far is creating a "pleasant problem" for the Indians, Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes. Gomes, who arrived in Cleveland with Mike Aviles when the Indians sent Esmil Rogers to the Blue Jays last offseason, is hitting .311/.328/.672 with five home runs in 61 at bats so far. His performance suggests he might be able to one day become an everyday catcher, not just a utility player who catches occasionally, Ocker writes. Carlos Santana is, of course, the Indians' starting catcher, but if Gomes keeps hitting, the Indians will have to find a way to get him more playing time.
- The Dodgers were criticized for absorbing hundreds of millions of dollars in salary (and giving up five players, including prospects Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa) when they acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto from the Red Sox last August. But, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer tweets, Gonzalez, Crawford and Punto have been the Dodgers' three best position players this year. Of course, that says more about the Dodgers' offense than anything else — the Dodgers are scoring just 3.39 runs per game, second-to-last in the National League.
Rosenthal On Rizzo, Altuve, Mattingly
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo might make an intriguing free agent after the 2015 season, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal says in a recent video. Rizzo's friends tell Rosenthal that Rizzo is not afraid of leaving after 2015 if the team does not pay him well. The Nats exercised their 2014 option on Rizzo last month, and have another option for 2015. Earlier this week, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported that the decision to exercise the 2014 option may have annoyed Rizzo, since the contract from which the option came was not especially lucrative. Under the 2014 option, Rizzo will be in the bottom third in GM pay, Kilgore noted. Here's more from Rosenthal.
- Rosenthal notes that Jose Altuve's recent decision to leave Scott Boras for his old agency, Octagon, is not necessarily an indication that Altuve will sign long-term with the Astros. There are currently no extension talks between the two sides, Rosenthal reports.
- If the Dodgers were to fire manager Don Mattingly, one problem would be that there are few obvious replacements, Rosenthal reports in another video. Neither Tony LaRussa nor Bobby Cox look like likely options, and members of Mattingly's staff like Davey Lopes, Trey Hillman and Tim Wallach aren't ideal. Still, Rosenthal says, the Dodgers will likely fire Mattingly anyway if the team doesn't improve, and the Dodgers have a rough schedule coming up.