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Brewers, William Contreras Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and catcher William Contreras have avoided arbitration, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He and the Brewers have signed a one-year deal with a club option for 2026. Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the backstop will make $6MM this year and there’s a $100K buyout on the $12MM option, so he’s guaranteed $6.1MM. He will still be under club control if that club option is eventually turned down.

January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. The majority of players agreed to terms with their respective clubs ahead of that deadline but Contreras was one of the 17 that did not. He filed at $6.5MM and the club at $5.6MM. This agreement puts him slightly beyond the midpoint of those two figures. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the backstop for $7.6MM.

After the filing deadline, teams and players are free to continue negotiating. However, most clubs adopt a “file and trial” policy, meaning that they refuse to negotiate one-year deals after the deadline. It’s quite common to see deals emerge after the deadline but before a hearing, though a club or mutual option will be involved. That’s a technicality since the option means the deal can’t be used as a comparable for future arb cases. That has come to pass in this case.

This is the first of three arbitration chances for Contreras, who is under club control through 2027. His subsequent raises will be based off his base salary in 2025, making this a significant case for player and club. As mentioned, the option is mostly a technicality. Even if the club eventually turns it down, he will still be under club control by the Brewers via arbitration.

Contreras came to the Brewers from Atlanta prior to the 2023 campaign, part of the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. In his two seasons in Milwaukee, he has slashed .285/.366/.462 for a wRC+ of 128. His defensive metrics also greatly improved relative to his time in Atlanta. He’s been worth 11.2 wins above replacement over those two campaigns, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Mets Have Shown Interest In Mark Canha

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The Mets offered free agent outfielder Mark Canha a non-guaranteed deal at some point this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That clearly wasn’t enough to push an agreement over the finish line, but it does indicate some interest from his former club.

Canha, 36 next month, has been a solid regular for many years now, but unsurprisingly, his production has dipped as he has moved into his mid-30s. Last year, between the Tigers and Giants, he stepped to the plate 462 times. His 11% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate were both a bit better than average, but he only hit seven home runs, his lowest tally in a full season since 2017. His .242/.344/.346 batting line led to a 102 wRC+, indicating he was 2% better than league average overall. He also stole seven bases without being caught and provided roughly league average defense, both in the outfield corners and in first base.

As recently as 2022, his first with the Mets, he was able to slash .266/.367/.403 for a 126 wRC+ and produce 2.6 wins above replacement. But in 2023, split between the Mets and Brewers, he dropped to a 111 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR. Last year, he was down to the aforementioned 102 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.

It’s perhaps not the most exciting profile, but Canha now stands as one of the better outfielders still available. Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler and others have all come off the board. What remains is a collection of players with narrower skill sets and notable weaknesses, such as Canha, Alex Verdugo, Randal Grichuk, Jason Heyward, Harrison Bader, Ramón Laureano and others.

At worst, Canha still seems capable of playing a small-side platoon role. He has fairly neutral splits in his career but has hit lefties better more recently. Last year, he slashed .229/.330/.327 against righties but .275/.380/.394 against southpaws, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 94 and 124. He has enough defensive versatility to play all four corner spots, though he would only be an emergency option at third base, with just 29 career innings there.

The Mets have a somewhat crowded infield mix at the moment but still seem open to possible changes. Soto and Brandon Nimmo will have regular work in the corners. Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor will likely battle for playing time in center. They also have Starling Marte and Jesse Winker. Those two are likely best suited for the designated hitter slot but they also can play the outfield some. Marte’s name has been in trade rumors and the Mets are reportedly willing to pay down some of  his remaining contract to facilitate a deal. The first base situation is also a bit up in the air with Pete Alonso unsigned, though it seems likely that Mark Vientos would take that spot if Alonso signs elsewhere, leaving third base open for one of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña.

Despite all those in-house outfield options, they reportedly expressed interest in both Hernández and Profar before they signed their respective free agent deals in L.A. and Atlanta. That suggests that adding depth, perhaps in conjunction with a Marte trade, is a path they have considered.

Canha wouldn’t be expected to be as impactful as either of those two this year, which is likely why the Mets only offered a non-guaranteed deal. But given that he was still a useful player in 2024, it’s not surprising that he is still holding out for a better offer elsewhere. The Twins have been seeking a right-handed bat to help in the outfield corners and possibly at first base. The D-backs could use a righty complement to a primarily left-handed outfield group. The Red Sox are also known to be looking for a righty bat. And, of course, spring injuries could create new opportunities for Canha before long.

Kendall Graveman Generating Interest

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Right-hander Kendall Graveman missed the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, but ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the veteran reliever is now healthy and generating interest in free agency as the bullpen market continues to pick up steam late in the winter. MLBTR’s Steve Adams adds that Graveman was cleared to begin throwing late last season and has had a normal offseason program. He’s expected to be ready for spring training and Opening Day.

A team signing Graveman would be betting on a bounceback. He was a solid starter earlier in his career but missed the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and converted to a relief role after that. He had a strong run prior to his most recent injury. From 2021-22, he threw 121 innings for the Mariners, Astros and White Sox, allowing 2.53 earned runs per nine. He struck out 25% of batters faced, gave out walks to 9.1% of opponents and generated grounders on a hefty 54.3% of batted balls.

His 2023 was a bit uneven. Starting the year with the White Sox, his 10.8% walk rate with Chicago was a bit elevated, but not alarmingly so. He pitched to a 3.48 ERA with the Sox, tallied eight saves and eight holds, and punched out a roughly average 22.6% of batters faced. After getting dealt back to the Astros in exchange for catcher Korey Lee, he walked 16.7% of opponents down the stretch. His 25% strikeout rate and 2.42 ERA were both sharp, but the command was clearly lacking. Beyond the uncharacteristically high number of free passes, his ground ball rate was only 38.7%, a big drop from the previous seasons.

The Astros left him off their ALDS roster due to some right shoulder discomfort. In January of 2024, it was announced that he required surgery on the shoulder and would likely miss the entire season. In hindsight, perhaps that injury explains some of this 2023 struggles, as the velocity on all his pitches dropped relative to 2022.

Graveman is now 34 years old. He missed all of last year and didn’t post his best numbers the year prior. There’s certainly risk in signing a pitcher in this position, but it could turn into a nice upside play if he’s able to stay healthy and get back to his previous form.

The last time Graveman was a free agent, in the 2021-22 offseason, he signed a three-year, $24MM deal with the White Sox. Based on what has happened over the past couple of years, he’ll surely be limited to something far less this time around — likely a low-cost one-year deal with incentives based on innings pitched (and possibly games finished).

The relief market has picked up significantly this month. The Cubs and Reds acquired Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers, respectively, in trades over the past week. Six different free agent relievers have signed eight-figure deals in the past few weeks: Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Kirby Yates, Andrew Kittredge and José Leclerc. Another six relievers signed in the $3-8MM range: Tommy Kahnle, Paul Sewald, Chris Martin, Ryne Stanek, Caleb Ferguson and Jorge López.

Pitchers like Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan and others are still out there but likely to earn notable salaries, to varying degrees. Others, including Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley and Camilo Doval, could be available in trade, though acquiring any one of them would require giving up young talent and/or taking on money. Graveman represents a more affordable alternative — one with far less certainty than the bulk of available arms but also a good bit more upside than most of the relievers who’ve yet to sign. In total, from 2021-23, he posted a 2.74 ERA with 51 holds, 24 saves, a 24.5% strikeout rate, a 10.4% walk rate and a 48.9% grounder rate.

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer

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The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year deal with Max Scherzer. The Boras Corporation client reportedly receives a $15.5MM salary with no deferrals and a full no-trade clause.

Scherzer is obviously a legend in the game and a future Hall of Famer. He debuted back in 2008, has almost 3,000 innings in the majors with a 3.16 earned run average, three Cy Young trophies, eight All-Star selections and two World Series rings.

The question is what he has left in the tank at this point. He is now 40 years old and coming off an injury-marred season. He started 2024 on the injured list while recovering from offseason back surgery. Though he recovered from that, he also battled a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring throughout the season. He was limited to just nine starts and 43 1/3 innings.

That obviously creates some concern but Scherzer has been remarkably durable throughout his career. In each full season from 2009 to 2023, he made 27 or more starts and logged at least 145 1/3 innings. From 2013 to 2018, he had six straight seasons of hitting the 200-inning plateau. In short, 2024 was the first season of his career where he missed significant time.

Even though the volume of his output was low, some of the results last year were still decent. He posted a 3.95 earned run average over those nine starts. His 22.6% strikeout rate was a drop for him personally but still around league average, while his 5.6% walk rate was still a very strong mark. His velocity was down as well on his fastball, going from 93.7 miles per hour in 2023 to 92.5 mph last year.

There are obviously some yellow flags in there but it’s of course possible that better health could lead to some better results. It’s a bit of a gamble for the Jays but this is clearly the market rate for a veteran pitcher with some question marks. Each of Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb secured one-year deals worth $15MM this offseason. Scherzer symbolically got past that group with an extra half mil.

There are many ways in which Verlander and Scherzer are similar, given their lengthy careers full of accolades. The two have also crossed paths many times, as they were both in the Detroit rotation just over a decade ago, before reuniting with the Mets more recently. Verlander’s 2024 was also injury-marred, though with perhaps some more concerning numbers. His 17 starts and 90 1/3 innings were more than Scherzer managed but Verlander had a 5.48 ERA and his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.7%. Verlander is also a bit older, about to turn 42 next month.

Cobb is only 37 but he only managed three starts last year, plus two more in the playoffs, thanks to his own maladies. He also doesn’t quite have the same legendary track record as Scherzer or Verlander. Morton, who is now 41, managed to make 30 starts for Atlanta last year but he seemingly limited his market by having a preference for clubs with spring training sites near his family in Florida.

The Jays have been connected to just about every available free agent this winter. That has included some high-profile position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as starting pitchers like Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes. There were obviously some frustrating misses in there, but the club has had a couple of strikes more recently. In the past three weeks, they’ve added Anthony Santander to their lineup, Jeff Hoffman to their bullpen and now Scherzer to the rotation.

While the Jays may have preferred to get one of those other starting pitchers, Scherzer keeps their commitment short. It also gives the club a very veteran rotation core. Kevin Gausman is 34, Chris Bassitt will turn 36 next month and José Berríos will be 31 in May. Those four are sure to be taking the ball with regularity, as long as they’re all healthy.

If Scherzer avoids the injury bug this year, he’ll upgrade the rotation and could perhaps indirectly upgrade the bullpen as well. Prior to this signing, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez were projected as the top options for the fourth and final spots in the rotation. Even with Scherzer in the fold, Francis will likely still get a rotation spot. After the Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline last year, Francis got a rotation audition and ran with it. He finished out the campaign with 59 innings over nine starts with a 1.53 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate. He still has one minor league option but the Jays would surely like to see if he could carry that forward.

That could push Rodríguez into a relief role, something he has done with success before. Last year was his first in the majors and he made 21 starts with decent results. He had a 4.47 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. But prior to signing with the Jays, he was a dominant closer in Japan. In 2022, he made 56 appearances for the Chunichi Dragons with a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He sat out 2023 while attempting to be declared a free agent.

Going into last year, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that Rodríguez’s contract stipulated he could only be optioned for the 2024 season. The Blue Jays did indeed option him a few times last year but it seems they won’t be able to do so from now on, so perhaps he’ll end up in the bullpen instead. He could compete for a leverage role alongside Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

That would subtract from the rotation depth a bit, but the Jays have a few more options there than they did last year. They added Jake Bloss, who already has a bit of Triple-A and MLB experience, in the aforementioned Kikuchi deal. Adam Macko is on the 40-man roster and should be in Triple-A this year after spending most of 2024 in Double-A. Alek Manoah had internal brace surgery in June and could make a late-season return. Since Scherzer is one a one-year deal and Bassitt is going into the final year of his pact, there are long-term openings for that group if any of them have a good showing in 2025.

RosterResource now sets the club’s payroll at $250MM and and their competitive balance tax number at $273MM. That puts them already well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts put at $225MM. Their CBT number was over the line in 2024 but they ducked under when their disappointing season lead to a deadline selloff, so they will go into 2025 as “first-time” payors. They are now within striking distance of the third CBT line, which will be $281MM next year. Going over that marker this year would mean their top pick in the 2026 draft would be pushed back 10 spots.

Despite running those numbers up to new heights, it doesn’t appear they are done. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Jays are still interested in Pete Alonso if he doesn’t circle back to the Mets while Keegan Matheson of MLB.com also suggests they should still have some flexibility. Maybe the Jays will add Alonso or someone else, or finally get an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s been a long, frustrating winter for Jays fans but a lot has changed in the past few weeks, perhaps with more to come. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about two weeks.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Scherzer was headed to the Jays. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that it was a one-year deal. Heyman then reported the $15.5MM guarantee. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the lack of deferrals. Heyman had the no-trade clause.

Reds To Sign Joe La Sorsa To Minor League Deal

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The Reds and left-hander Joe La Sorsa are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. The southpaw will make the league minimum $780K in the majors and $180K in the minors.

La Sorsa, 27 in April, had a very brief stay on the open market. The Nationals designated him for assignment and then put him on release waivers. The report of this deal came out less than two hours after the announcement that he had cleared waivers and become a free agent.

He has thrown 50 1/3 innings in the majors over the last two years, allowing 4.47 earned runs per nine. His 19.2% strikeout rate has been subpar but his 6.4% walk rate a couple of ticks better than average. He has done a decent job of limiting damage in that sample, with Statcast having his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate all a bit better than the rest of the league.

His minor league production has mostly been similar to that major league work. Over 2023 and 2024, he logged 92 2/3 innings on the farm with a 2.82 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. His 2022 numbers were a bit more unique. He logged 73 1/3 minor league innings over 40 appearances that year with a 2.33 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate.

Even if he can’t get those huge strikeout numbers back, he can perhaps be useful on account of his strong control and ability to stay off barrels. The Reds project to have three lefties in their bullpen, including recent trade acquisition Taylor Rogers as well as Brent Suter and Sam Moll, though there’s nothing wrong with more depth. If La Sorsa gets added to Cincinnati’s roster at any point, he has a couple of option years and less than a year of service time, meaning he can potentially provide cheap depth with roster flexibility.

Padres Re-Sign Elias Díaz

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The Padres officially announced that they’ve re-signed catcher Elias Díaz to a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. The ACES client is reportedly guaranteed $3.5MM — taking the form of a $1.5MM base salary for the upcoming season and a $2MM buyout on the $7MM option. San Diego had multiple openings on the 40-man roster and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Díaz, 34, finished the 2024 season with the Padres. After being released by the Rockies, he landed a minors pact with the Friars and was added to the roster just before the calendar flipped from August to September. He joined Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano on the roster, though Campusano would be optioned a little more than a week later. Díaz hit .190/.292/.429 in 24 plate appearances. For the postseason, the Friars carried Higashioka and Díaz on the roster over Campusano, though Higashioka took the bulk of the work as Díaz received only one plate appearance.

Both Díaz and Higashioka became free agents at the end of the season, leaving the Friars with a clear hole behind the plate. Higashioka signed with the Rangers. Campusano, who is still on the roster, seemed to have a breakout season in 2023 when he hit .319/.356/.491, but his line had a steep drop last year, finishing at .227/.281/.361. Since his defensive metrics were also poor, he was considered to be below replacement level on the year.

That made the position a clear target area for the Friars this offseason. However, the club has been remarkably quiet this winter. Once completed, this will be their first free agent signing. Their only trade so far was acquiring right-hander Ron Marinaccio after he was designated for assignment by the White Sox.

That’s surely related to the club’s uncertain payroll situation. The Padres spent aggressively while Peter Seidler was owning the club but it turned out to not be sustainable. In September of 2023, it was reported that the club was “out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.” Seidler died in November of that year. The 2023-24 offseason saw the Padres look to cut their payroll, which led to Juan Soto getting traded to the Yankees.

This winter, it once seemed that the club would have to dial back projected spending some more, which led to plenty of rumors involving players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez, Michael King, Robert Suarez and others. Reporting in recent days has suggested the situation isn’t quite so dire, with the Friars not necessarily having to cut spending. However, with holes in left field, at catcher, in the rotation and perhaps at shortstop, trading one of those players might still be necessary in order to free up money and then add elsewhere.

Regardless of the specifics, it’s clear that the budget crunch has made president of baseball operations A.J. Preller far less active than in other offseasons. It has also limited the club in addressing their catching situation. They signed Martín Maldonado to a minor league deal and have now made a modest investment with this deal.

Díaz generally gets better marks for his glovework than for his bat. For his career, he has hit .251/.304/.388 for a wRC+ of 78, indicating he’s been 22% below the league average hitter. Catchers generally come in about 10% below the league-wide mean, though Díaz will still come in below that lower bar. Between the Rockies and Padres last year, he hit .265/.313/.382 for a wRC+ of 81.

Behind the plate, outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast have generally ranked him as a poor framer but close to average in terms of blocking and strong when it comes to controlling the running game.

Díaz and Campusano now project as the club’s catching duo. Campusano still has an option and could be pushed to Triple-A, though the only other backstop on the 40-man roster is Brett Sullivan, who is about to turn 31 years old and has a .206/.243/.299 line in just 103 big league appearances.

Ideally, Campusano would regain his 2023 form and run with the job. He has less than three years of service time and therefore has the potential to be a cheap solution for his four remaining years of club control. But if he can’t rebound from his rough 2024, the Padres now at least have a competent veteran on-hand. Maldonado also gives them some seasoned non-roster depth and it’s also possible the club makes further moves to address the catching situation.

RosterResource now projects the Friars for a competitive balance tax number of $245MM. That’s just a bit above this year’s $241MM base threshold, though as mentioned, it’s possible that they change their financial situation via trades of players making notable salaries.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported that Díaz had agreed to a one-year deal that guaranteed $3.5MM and included a mutual option. Álvarez-Montes also reported the specific salary breakdown and the option value.

Reds Designate Casey Legumina For Assignment

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The Reds announced that right-hander Casey Legumina has been designated for assignment. That’s the corresponding move to open a roster spot for outfielder Austin Hays, whose one-year deal is now official.

Legumina, 28 in June, has had a limited role with the Reds over the past two seasons. He logged a combined 22 innings over the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, allowing 17 earned runs. His 16.7% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were both subpar marks but he did get ground balls on 56.4% of balls in play. As one would expect, his minor league work in that same timeframe has been better. He tossed 91 frames on the farm over the past two years with a 3.76 ERA. His 25.1% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate were both quite strong.

Despite the solid minor league numbers, the lack of results in the big leagues has seemingly cost Legumina his roster spot. The Reds will have one week of DFA limbo to figure out his fate, whether that’s a trade or something on the waiver wire. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade talks would need to come together in the next five days.

Legumina still has one option year and less than a full season of service time. If a club is intrigued by his minor league results and acquires him somehow, he could give them some cheap depth with roster flexibility.

Mets Designate Dylan Covey For Assignment

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The Mets made their signing of right-hander Ryne Stanek official today. Per Will Sammon of The Athletic, right-hander Dylan Covey has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Covey, 33, has never pitched for the Mets. He was with the Phillies in 2024 but was outrighted off their roster in August. He elected free agency at season’s end and the Mets signed him to a big league deal at the end of October.

The righty has been a starter for most of his career but converted to relief work more recently. He tossed 39 innings out of the Philly bullpen in 2023 with a 3.69 earned run average. His 15.6% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he did manage to get ground balls on 54% of balls in play.

He wasn’t really able to follow that up in 2024. He started the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain, eventually getting transferred to the 60-day IL. He wasn’t able to start a rehab assignment until late July. Once he was healthy, the Phils ran him through waivers instead of adding him back to the roster. Before the offseason came, he managed to toss 15 Triple-A innings with a 1.20 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 12.1% walk rate and 71.4% ground ball rate.

Covey has always been a ground ball guy, so perhaps the Mets were intrigued but that uptick in strikeouts to end the season. Per the Associated Press, his deal pays him an $850K salary while in the majors and $350K while in the minors.

That minor league salary is relatively large, which is probably by design. Per the minor league collective bargaining agreement that was worked out a couple of years ago, the Triple-A minimum salary is just under $36K, so Covey’s is almost ten times that.

If he were to clear waivers, he would have the right to elect free agency since he has more than three years of big league service time. But since he has less than five years of service, heading to the open market would mean forfeiting what’s left of his deal. If he clears waivers, that means no club is willing to give him a big league roster spot, meaning he would likely be limited to minor league offers on the open market. That means he should probably just keep his current minor league deal. It’s possible that all comes to pass in the next few days. If it does, the Mets will get to keep Covey as some bullpen depth but without him taking up a roster spot.

Posey: Giants “Feel Pretty Set” With Current Roster

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The Giants freed up some payroll space yesterday, trading left-hander Taylor Rogers to the Reds. They sent $6MM to Cincinnati in the deal but also freed up $6MM, with Rogers set to make $12MM this year. Since the Giants have been connected to some of the big names remaining in free agency, such as Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty, some fans might have fairly wondered if the extra cash could be redirected to a new roster addition.

However, in the aftermath of the deal, president of baseball operations Buster Posey downplayed that possibility. “We’ll keep looking,” Posey said to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. “I will say, we feel pretty set with the roster the way it is right now.”

This is Posey’s first offseason in his current job, as he was just hired at the end of September. Unlike other baseball operations leaders, there’s no real track record to go off of, making it hard to gauge how the Giants would behave this winter. There were perhaps some clues, as Posey was apparently instrumental in the Matt Chapman negotiations, even before getting the POBO job. Then at his introductory press conference, he spoke of getting the Giants back into the “memory-making business.” He also spoke fondly of valuing runs batted in as a statistic, despite that measure falling out of favor over time.

That led to some hope that he would come in as an old-fashioned gunslinger type, though it’s been a fairly modest offseason on the whole. They did make a big strike with the Willy Adames signing, the largest contract in franchise history, but have been fairly quiet apart from that. Their most notable moves aside from Adames have been to sign Justin Verlander to a one-year deal and send out Rogers in what seems like a salary dump move.

It’s possible that this is a bluff from Posey, since it wouldn’t help with negotiations for him to come out and say he’s desperate to make further additions. But if he’s being truthful that the club is fairly content, then they will be mostly relying on internal improvements.

The Giants have finished with a win total in the 79-81 range in three straight years now. Adames is a nice boost but the Giants also lost Blake Snell, Michael Conforto and Mark Canha to free agency at the end of last year and have now taken Rogers out of the bullpen mix. Verlander could also help, but there are no guarantees of that after he posted a 5.48 earned run average last year. Injuries may have played a part in those struggles but health woes can pop up for any pitcher and Verlander is perhaps even more susceptible since he’ll turn 42 before the season starts.

The internal improvements could come from a few places. Jung Hoo Lee only got to play 37 games last year before requiring labrum surgery, so a full and productive season from him would be great. Wilmer Flores, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks were also held back by health issues to varying extents and could perhaps provide more in 2025 than last year. Tyler Fitzgerald and Heliot Ramos had midseason breakouts in 2024, so carrying those forward into a full season could lead to some extra wins. A bounceback from Camilo Doval after a rough 2024 would certainly be welcome. Young guys like Luis Matos and Marco Luciano could perhaps break out after their progress has lagged a bit in recent years.

If Posey’s stance is posturing, it’s possible there’s some financial wiggle room, at least relative to last year. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club started 2024 with a $208MM payroll and they eventually went on to pay the competitive balance tax. RosterResource currently projects them for just a $176MM payroll this year, $32MM south of last year. Their $217MM CBT projection is $24MM below this year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s still possible for the club to sign someone like Flaherty or Alonso and stay under the tax and last year’s payroll. Alonso might end up making a salary near $24MM this year but the Giants could offset that somewhat by trading LaMonte Wade Jr. and the $5MM he’s owed. However, Baggarly has reported previously this winter that the Giants are planning to reduce payroll, so perhaps they have already made their most significant moves.

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