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Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.

Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.

That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings, with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.

The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits allowed.

It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.

It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.

Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.

They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68 ERA. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.

It’s a solid group but one lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.

Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.

Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.

A pessimist would say that Bieber has been on the downslope for years. An optimist would say that Bieber’s elbow was probably hampering him long before he went under the knife and that he can get back to his dominant form with a clean bill of health. The Jays probably aren’t sure themselves which view is more correct but they’re putting some chips on the latter.

As of now, a best-case scenario for the Jays would see Bieber dominate through a playoff run, at which point he would opt out and return to free agency. It’s possible that they try to alter that path by signing him to a new deal. They have done a trade-and-extend before. They acquired Berríos from the Twins at the 2021 deadline, when he had a year and a half of club control left. A few months later, they signed him to a lengthy extension. Presumably, they will want to wait to see how things go in the next few weeks or months, but that is a theoretical possibility with Bieber.

Whether that happens or not, they have perhaps crossed a notable line by acquiring Bieber. RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number above $284MM with Bieber added. That’s just an estimate but going over $281MM would mean Toronto’s top 2026 draft pick would be moved back by ten slots. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more breathing room, having them at $273MM. That yet doesn’t include Bieber.

A player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bieber is still owed about $19.33MM over a season and a third. That works out to a CBT hit of about $14.5MM. Prorating that over the final third of the season would add a bit less than $5MM to Toronto’s CBT number. According to Cot’s, acquiring Bieber wouldn’t put them over the line. Clarity on that might not come until later and the Jays might alter the picture with other moves.

For the Guardians, they have hovered around contention for a lot of the year. However, they have struggled a bit in recent months. They’re not totally buried, currently just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. But they recently lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. It seems they have decided they’d rather sell than try to make a push this year. Recent reporting has suggested they would look to move Bieber and outfielder Steven Kwan, though the latter ultimately stayed in Cleveland.

By giving up a wild card in Bieber, the Guardians have added an arm with a strong chance to help them in the future. Stephen, 22, was Toronto’s second-round pick last year. This year, he has already climbed from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he has logged 91 2/3 innings with a 2.06 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranks Stephen the #5 prospect in the Jays’ system. He has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and cutter. FanGraphs recently published an updated top 100 list ahead of the deadline with Stephen up at #80 in the league.

It’s a nice swap for the Guards, turning a wild card 30-year-old who was maybe about to become a free agent into a potential future rotation building block. For the Jays, it’s a risky ploy, but they’re clearly shooting for upside. The roster is already fairly well rounded with good contributors throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they had interest in closers Jhoan Durán and Mason Miller, though those arms have been traded to the Phillies and Padres, respectively.  Instead, closer to the trade deadline the Jays were able to land Louis Varland from the Twins in a surprise deal.

For now, the Jays can keep their five-man rotation intact. In the coming weeks, perhaps someone will have to be bumped out for Bieber, maybe after he makes another rehab start or two. The Jays also have Alek Manoah on a rehab assignment, working back from his own Tommy John surgery. It’s an interesting cluster of talent as the club looks to make a push through October.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Lange, D. Ross Cameron, Bruce Newman, Imagn Images

Mets Acquire Cedric Mullins

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The Mets have acquired outfielder Cedric Mullins from the Orioles, according to announcements from both clubs. Pitching prospects Raimon Gómez, Anthony Nunez and Chandler Marsh are heading to the Orioles in exchange. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported the deal prior to the official announcement. Outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Mullins.

Mullins, 30, will be changing teams for the first time in his career. The Orioles drafted him with a 13th-round pick back in 2015. He got some part-time play in the 2018-2020 seasons without doing too much to stand out, but then had a massive breakout in 2021. He hit 30 home runs that year and stole 30 bases. He walked in 8.7% of his plate appearances and only struck out 18.5% of the time. He slashed .291/.360/.518 for a 136 wRC+. Thanks to that offense, those steals and his strong defense, FanGraphs credited him with six wins above replacement.

That season now looks like an outlier. He hasn’t been able to maintain that level of production but has been a solid everyday player nonetheless. From 2022 to the present, he has hit .241/.310/.412 for a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter in that time. But he has stolen 99 bases and still runs the ball down on the grass. FanGraphs has credited him with 8.8 fWAR in that span, a bit more than two wins per year.

Mullins’ presence on the roster provided a bridge between eras. The Orioles were rebuilding when he first came up. As he broke out, he was a rare bright spot during an otherwise dreary period, with the O’s losing at least 108 games in each full season from 2018 to 2021. The club then emerged as a contender, getting over .500 in 2022 and then making the playoffs in the two years after that.

However, things have gone downhill in 2025, his final season before reaching free agency. Multiple injuries tanked the club early on. They are currently 50-59 and seven games back of a playoff spot, marking them as clear sellers. They have already traded Bryan Baker to the Rays, Gregory Soto to the Mets, Seranthony Domínguez to the Blue Jays, Andrew Kittredge to the Cubs and Ramón Urías to the Astros. With Mullins being an impending free agent, he was also on the list.

For the Mets, Mullins is a sensible addition, as center field has been a question mark for them this year. They began the season with Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor as their options there. Siri fouled a ball of himself early in the year and suffered a fractured tibia. He’s been on the shelf for almost three months and still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment. Taylor has a dismal .201/.258/.295 line on the year. With those struggles, the Mets have been connected to center fielders such as Mullins, Luis Robert Jr., Harrison Bader and Ramón Laureano.

The Mets have been using Jeff McNeil in center field quite a bit. Presumably, bringing Mullins aboard will allow McNeil to move back to his regular second base position. That could perhaps increase the chances of the Mets flipping one of their young infielders. The Mets have been using Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña at second and third base this year. Reportedly, they are open to trading from that group, though nothing has come together yet.

Mullins is making $8.725MM this year, which leaves about $2.8MM left to be paid out. The Mets are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and are over the top tier. That means they face a 110% tax rate on any money they add to the ledger. The taxes will be about $3.1MM, so they’re paying close to $6MM total to bring in Mullins for the stretch run and postseason. That’s a drop in the bucket for them, as they have some of the highest payrolls in the league in recent years.

They are also parting with three young players. Gómez, 23, has attracted some attention thanks to his elite velocity. He can hit triple-digits regularly, having even touched 105 miles per hour. However, as often happens with pitchers with this kind of stuff, there are health and control concerns. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2023 and most of his 2024. He has just 102 innings pitched in his five minor league seasons. He has punched out 28.4% of opponents but also given out walks at a 13.3% clip.

He is a project but one with exciting raw talent. Baseball America lists him as the #22 prospect in the Mets’ system. FanGraphs recently put him in the #31 slot. The big question seems to be whether or not he’ll ever harness his stuff. He hasn’t yet climbed beyond the High-A level but has already been eligible for the Rule 5 draft and will be exposed again this winter.

Nunez, 24, is a converted infielder. He was drafted by the Padres as a shortstop but got released back in 2021. He took up pitching and landed a minor league deal with the Mets in 2024. Since then, he has climbed as high as Double-A. In 50 innings across multiple levels, he has a 1.80 ERA and massive 37.5% strikeout rate. He has also walked 11.5% of batters faced, though that high figure is perhaps not surprising for a guy who hasn’t been pitching for very long.

BA lists him as the #27 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he throws a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider and changeup. FanGraphs puts him in the #18 spot. Like Gomez, he has already been Rule 5 eligible, so he’ll need a 40-man spot if the O’s don’t want him to be exposed again.

Marsh, 22, was signed last year as an undrafted free agent. He has thrown 42 2/3 minor league innings with a 2.53 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. FanGraphs gave him an honorable mention on their recent list of the top Mets prospects, noting that he has a great slider but a lack of fastball control. Unlike the other two, he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season.

For the O’s, Mullins was on his way out the door in a lost season, so they’ve grabbed a bunch of young arms. They all seem like long-term projects, but the organization presumably feels like there’s upside in here which makes it a worthy gamble. For the Mets, none of those arms were likely to help them anytime soon. Since they are in first place and making a run at a title, Mullins helps them today.

Winker landed on the 10-day IL July 11th due to back inflammation. This transfer means he’s ineligible to return until early September, so it seems the Mets don’t think he’s close to a return.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Hanisch, Mitch Stringer, Imagn Images

Phillies Acquire Harrison Bader

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The Phillies announced the acquisition of outfielder Harrison Bader from the Twins. Minnesota receives two prospects: outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria. Philadelphia designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Bader, 31, has been a solid big leaguer for years. He is one of the best outfield defenders in the league, with career tallies of 63 Defensive Runs Saved and 76 Outs Above Average. That DRS total is fifth-best among outfielders since the start of 2017, while the OAA total tops the leaderboard.

His offense has been up-and-down but he’s currently on pace to have his best season at the plate. In 307 plate appearances, he already has 12 home runs. Only once in his career has he hit more than that, which was the 16 he hit in 2021. His 26.4% strikeout rate is a bit high but his 8.8% walk rate is his best mark in years.

On the whole, he has a .258/.339/.439 line this year. His 117 wRC+, a career high, indicates he has been 17% better than league average at the plate this year. Thanks to ten stolen bases and some quality glovework, he’s already been worth 2.0 wins above replacement on the year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The Twins have pivoted to sell mode recently. They are 51-57 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. This the second deal they have lined up with the Phillies, as they already sent Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia. They also traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers and Brock Stewart to the Dodgers.

Bader has long been seen as likely to go, since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins in the offseason. That guarantee came in the form of a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option. Mutual options are essentially never picked up by both sides, which is why Bader has been viewed as a rental. His buyout can also increase via plate appearance incentives. He would add $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then $450K at 475 and 500. As mentioned, he’s currently at 307 plate appearances.

His deal also has a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins aren’t including any money in this deal, so it seems the Phils will take on the remaining salary and the buyout on the option. There’s about $1.3MM of salary left. The buyout, as mentioned, is $1.5MM but can increase.

Money aside, Bader is a great fit for the Phillies. They have been looking for outfield help and right-handed bat. Bader ticks both boxes. Nick Castellanos is cemented in right, but he’s a league-average bat with horrible defensive metrics. Johan Rojas is the opposite, as he’s a great defender who doesn’t hit. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are a bit less extreme. They’re both good defenders in a corner but a bit stretched in center. They both can hit but are left-handed hitters who do more damage with the platoon advantage. Kepler is also now battling a triceps injury, per Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Bader has largely been playing left field for the Twins out of deference to Byron Buxton. He should be able to pivot back to center for the Phils. That should allow for Rojas, Kepler and Marsh to all be used more selectively. Bader has pretty even platoon splits this year but his career splits are more extreme, with a .248/.315/.461 line versus lefties and a .242/.307/.374 slash against righties. Kepler recently expressed some dissatisfaction with being platooned but he hasn’t helped his cause with a .196/.250/.314 line against southpaws this year.

Mendez, 21, was originally a Brewers prospect. He came to the Phils in a November 2023 trade which sent infielder Oliver Dunn to the Brewers. Dunn was a minor league Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees’ system, making a fairly unusual trade tree for this move.

Since Mendez has come over the Phils, he’s been great at the plate. He spent last year at High-A and has been at Double-A this year. He has stepped to the plate 722 times in those two seasons with a 12.7% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, .287/.380/.412 batting line and 131 wRC+. Baseball America lists him as the #17 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he hits the ball incredibly hard but too often into the ground. He’s not considered a strong outfield defender, so his development as a hitter will be key.

He is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Perhaps the Phils weren’t going to add him to their 40-man roster or were on the fence about it. The Twins will need to add him this fall if they don’t want him to be exposed.

Villoria, 16, was an international signing of the Phils out of Venezuela. He just signed with the Phils this year out of for a $425K bonus and has 14 professional innings under his belt in the Dominican Summer League. His youth and inexperience naturally make him a long-term play. Baseball America notes that he can already get up to the mid-90s with his fastball and he also has a high-spin slider as well as a changeup.

For the Phils, they’re adding a bit of money to their books but they’re usually not afraid to do that and they’ve clearly got a foot on the gas pedal here. Their core players are mostly in their mid-30s, so they made a bold strike by giving up notable prospects in the Durán deal. Here, they’ve given up a few prospects but not top guys.

They are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and over the top tier, meaning they will face a 110% tax rate on Bader’s remaining salary and the buyout. Between the salary and buyout, he’s owed at least $2.8MM, so the Phils will also have to pay over $3MM in taxes on that.

For the Twins, they add a couple of extra prospects from a player who was set to depart in free agency anyway. It’s possible that saving money is a goal for them this week. They could have included money here to ask for a greater prospect return but didn’t do so. They also included Randy Dobnak’s contract in the Paddack deal, seemingly to save a few million bucks. They could still move Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Ty France and Christian Vázquez before the day is done, as they are all impending free agents. If they’re willing to move another controllable player like they did in the Duran deal, Griffin Jax could be on the move as well.

Teams like the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were also connected to Bader in recent weeks. Those teams could pivot to guys like Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins and/or Ramón Laureano, who are thought to be available today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Phillies were closing in on a Bader deal for an outfield and pitching prospect. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had the return.

Photo courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images

Rangers Interested In Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton

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The Rangers are looking for bullpen help and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Phil Maton of the Cardinals and Hunter Harvey of the Royals are two of their targets. Rosenthal also mentions Jake Bird of the Rockies and David Bednar of the Pirates but notes that the Rangers expect the asking price on Bednar to be too steep. The Rangers’ interest in Bednar and Bird has been previously reported. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Texas would like to clear some payroll space today in order to accommodate bullpen upgrades.

Financial constraints have been an ongoing theme for the Rangers this year, as they clearly want to avoid the competitive balance tax. Owner Ray Davis admitted as much back in January. To stay under that line, their bullpen signings were modest. They inked Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, Luke Jackson, Jacob Webb and Shawn Armstrong to one-year deals, none of them worth more than $5.5MM.

The returns on those deals have been mixed. Jackson was recently released and is now with the Tigers. Armstrong and Milner have been good. Martin has also been good but is currently on the injured list. Webb is on the IL as well.

Texas relievers have a collective 3.37 earned run average, fourth-best in baseball. However, that might belie the true talent of the group. Their .277 batting average on balls in play, 72.6% strand rate and 8.4% homer to fly ball rate are all a bit to the unfortunate side. Their 13.3 K-BB% is 15th in the majors and their 3.82 SIERA 16th.

Regardless, most contending clubs look for bullpen upgrades ahead of the deadline. The Rangers are currently tied with the Mariners for the last American League Wild Card spot and figure to be adding.

Maton, 32, is often underrated. Dating back to the start of 2020, he has thrown 322 1/3 innings with a 3.69 ERA. He has struck out 27.1% of opponents, given out walks at a 9.2% rate and induced grounders on 42.8% of balls in play. He also does very well in terms of limiting damage. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate are often near the top of the league leaderboards. He also has a 2.57 ERA in 28 playoff innings.

Despite that solid track record, his market hasn’t always been strong, perhaps because his velocity maxes out around 91 miles per hour. He first reached free agency ahead of 2024 and signed a modest one-year, $6.5MM deal with the Rays. He didn’t do especially well in Tampa, posting a 4.58 ERA. However, he righted the ship after being flipped to the Mets, posting a 2.51 ERA with that club.

He returned to free agency ahead of the current season and lingered on the open market into March. The Cardinals grabbed him with a $2MM guarantee on a one-year deal. That has worked out nicely, as Maton has a 2.35 ERA in 38 1/3 innings. He has a 30.4% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 50.6% ground ball rate. He’s also still inducing weak contact, like usual. The Cards are clearly selling, having already traded Ryan Helsley to the Mets and Steven Matz to the Red Sox. An impending free agent like Maton is sure to go. He’s also been connected the Blue Jays this week.

Harvey, 30, is a bit more of a wild card. He hasn’t pitched much in the past year due to injury. He was traded from the Nationals to the Royals at last year’s deadline. Back tightness put him on the shelf after that deal. This year, a right teres major strain put him on the shelf for a few months and he only recently returned. He has only thrown 13 1/3 big league innings for the Royals since they acquired him.

But the results have been good when healthy. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has a 3.13 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. It’s unclear if the Royals would make him available, however, as they’ve been acting as buyers. They extended Seth Lugo instead of trading him and have brought in role players like Randal Grichuk and Adam Frazier.

Neither Maton nor Harvey would deal a massive blow to the Rangers’ budget. Maton is making only $2MM this year, leaving roughly $640K to be paid out. Harvey is making $3.7MM, with about $1.2MM left.

RosterResource has the Rangers’ CBT number at $235MM, roughly $6MM away from the $241MM base threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more wiggle room, putting them at $233MM. Those are just estimates and might be off by a few million, but it seems like there’s room for someone like Maton or Harvey to be added without pushing the Rangers too high, though the club also has a few players with notable bonuses who could complicate matters.

If the Rangers need to move some money around, it’s been speculated that they could look to make players like Adolis García, Jonah Heim or Kyle Higashioka available. Garcia is making $9.25MM this year and isn’t having a great season. Perhaps he would appeal to the Royals, who need more offense from their outfield. Heim and Higashioka are also having underwhelming seasons. Heim is making $4.575MM while Higashioka is in the first season of a two-year, $13.5MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Blue Jays are looking to bolster their bullpen and the Cardinals have arms available. The Jays were previously connected to Ryan Helsley, though he has now been traded to the Mets. The Jays and Cards clubs have also discussed right-hander Phil Maton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Maton, 32, is often underrated by fans and the baseball industry. Dating back to the start of the 2020 season, Maton has tossed 322 1/3 big league innings with a 3.69 earned run average. He has struck out 27.1% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.2% clip and induced grounders on 42.8% of balls in play. He generally does very well in terms of limiting damage, as seen on his Statcast page. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate are regularly near the top of the league leaderboards. He also has a 2.57 ERA in 28 postseason innings.

Despite that generally strong track record, his market hasn’t always been robust, perhaps because his velocity maxes out around 91 miles per hour. He first reached free agency ahead of the 2024 season and signed a fairly modest one-year, $6.5MM deal with the Rays. He didn’t thrive in Tampa, posting a 4.58 ERA with that club. However, he got back on track after being flipped to the Mets, posting a 2.51 ERA with that club.

He returned to free agency ahead of this year and lingered unsigned into March. The Cardinals scooped him up with a $2MM guarantee on a one-year deal. That has worked out nicely so far, as Maton has a 2.35 ERA in 38 1/3 innings for the Cards. He has a 30.4% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 50.6% ground ball rate. He’s also still inducing all that weak contact, like usual.

The Jays are clear buyers, currently sitting atop the American League East, four games ahead of the Yankees. Their relievers have a collective 3.94 ERA this year, which puts them near the middle of the MLB pack. They already added one new arm, acquiring Seranthony Domínguez from the Orioles, but are still on the hunt for more.

The Cards, meanwhile, hovered in contention for a decent chunk of the season but have clearly moved into sell mode. In the past few days, they have flipped Helsley to the Mets as well as sending Erick Fedde to Atlanta and Steven Matz to Boston. Since Maton is an impending free agent, he should be on the move today as well.

Maton’s modest salary is surely appealing to the Jays. RosterResource estimates that they have a competitive balance tax number of $280.6MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them a bit lower at $273MM. The third tier of the CBT this year is $281MM. Any team that goes over that line would have their top pick in the 2026 draft pushed back ten spots, in addition to incurring a higher taxation rate.

Perhaps the Jays are looking to avoid that line. The O’s reportedly sent them some undisclosed amount of cash in the Domínguez deal. Maton only has about $650K left to be paid out on his deal, so he wouldn’t be a huge hit. The Jays also have other targets, however, including starters such as Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Mitch Keller. Perhaps they would look to have other clubs eat money in any other deal they line up, like in the Domínguez swap, or they could theoretically move another player off their roster in order to free up some payroll space.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

The Opener: Deadline Day!

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Deadline day is here! The deadline is 5pm Central time, meaning there are less than 11 hours to go now. Here is a small selection of the many, many storylines we’ll be following today…

1. Miller time?

Less than two weeks ago, the Athletics were reportedly turning away Mason Miller suitors. Yesterday, there was a big narrative shift. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Padres were all connected to Miller in rumors. Then the A’s didn’t use Miller in a save situation last night. Manager Mark Kotsay said after the game that Miller was not available but not due to an injury, seemingly suggesting that the A’s held him back with the possibility of a trade being in the works. Will the A’s and some other club swing a blockbuster deal for Miller today?

2. Sandy in the hourglass:

It has been expected for a very long time that the Marlins would be trading starter Sandy Alcantara before tomorrow. However, his performance has made it more questionable. He has a 6.36 earned run average this year. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still good but not quite as strong as before. His 16.8% strikeout rate is well below his previous pace. Despite the struggles, several clubs are still interested, including the Astros, Red Sox, Mets and Padres. He’s signed through next year with a club option for 2027, so the Marlins could hold him if they don’t get an offer they like. Will they pull the trigger?

3. Padres have everything on the table:

The Padres have some clear needs but some notable limitations. The budget is tight and their prospect pool shallow. As such, there have been a lot of rumors suggesting they may move players from their big league roster, despite looking to strengthen the club for the stretch run. Perhaps they could move players like Dylan Cease or Robert Suarez while simultaneously trying to bring in guys like Miller, Alcantara or Jarren Duran. They haven’t yet made a trade in this deadline season but perhaps they could do several moves and significantly rearrange the deck chairs by the end of the day.

4. Pirate standoff:

The Pirates are clear sellers and it was reported over a month ago that they have very few untouchable players, with Andrew McCutchen and Paul Skenes reportedly the only guys who are off limits. They’ve already traded Ke’Bryan Hayes to the Reds, Caleb Ferguson to the Mariners and Adam Frazier to the Royals. There have been plenty of Mitch Keller rumors but the most recent reporting suggests he might end up staying. Could some other club pry him loose in the next few hours? Even if Keller stays, the Pirates could move Bryan Reynolds, Tommy Pham, Oneil Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Bart, Bailey Falter, David Bednar, Dennis Santana and/or Taylor Rogers.

5. Guardians open for business?

The Guardians are just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot but have lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. Perhaps the outlook is dire enough that they will sell. Reportedly, they are shopping outfielder Steven Kwan and starter Shane Bieber, a couple of very interesting additions to the market. Will either or both of them be sent out of Cleveland today?

6. Snakes alive, in the seller lane:

The Diamondbacks have been one of the most aggressive sellers this year. They’ve already flipped Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, both to the Mariners, in addition to sending Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They still have several other impending free agents who should be available today. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are the headliners, but the Snakes also have Shelby Miller, Jalen Beeks and Kendall Graveman. Beeks and Miller are currently on the injured list but could still be traded. Arizona could also consider moving controllable guys such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy.

7. Orioles flying the coop:

The Orioles are another club active in the seller lane. They have already traded Bryan Baker to the Rays, Gregory Soto to the Mets, Seranthony Domínguez to the Blue Jays, Ramón Urías to the Astros and Andrew Kittredge to the Cubs. They still have more work to do today. Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are all impending free agents who should be on the move today. Ramón Laureano’s deal has a 2026 club option but he’s likely available as well.

8. The Robert staredown:

There has been some suggestion that the White Sox could hold Luis Robert Jr. past the deadline if they don’t get an offer they like. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract but there are two club options for 2026 and 2027, each valued at $20MM with a $2MM buyout. Theoretically, they could trigger the first of those options and then try to trade Robert in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. However, that’s a risky stance to take. Robert has been hurt and/or underperforming for much of the past two years. There’s a decent chance he is injured or struggling again down the stretch, which will make it tough to justify spending an extra $18MM on him a few months from now. He’s actually been performing well in recent weeks, so the Sox should arguably cash him in now while he has a bit of momentum.

9. Twins splitting:

The Twins have leaned hard into sell mode. They were clearly going to be moving impending free agents but made a big splash yesterday by flipping Jhoan Durán, who is controllable through 2027, to the Phillies in exchange for prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. Will they move another controllable guy like Griffin Jax or Joe Ryan? Even if not, they should be shopping impending free agents Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, Ty France and Christian Vázquez. They already traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros Interested In Dylan Cease

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TODAY: Cease is the Astros’ “main target,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

JULY 29: The Astros have Padres right-hander Dylan Cease atop their deadline wish list, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston is also known to be looking for a bat and the report lists Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks as names the Astros are considering. MLBTR covered Houston’s interested in Castro earlier this week.

The Houston rotation has had a rough go in terms of health this year. They started the season with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Cristian Javier on the injured list due to surgeries in previous years. They’re all still on the shelf. Since the start of the season, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have required Tommy John surgery, putting them out for the rest of the year. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb in a freak accident, getting hit during batting practice, and has been out for almost three months now. In the past two weeks, Lance McCullers Jr. hit the IL with a blister and Brandon Walter was sidelined by elbow inflammation.

They still have a strong one-two punch atop the rotation with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown but things get dicey after that. Currently, Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and Jason Alexander are filling in. The Astros will naturally want to add some arms and push those guys down the depth chart. It’s possible they could get some guys off the IL in the coming months, but it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on that.

Cease has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Since getting promoted in 2019, he hasn’t gone on the injured list, apart from a two-day stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has made at least 32 starts in each full season since. He’s already up to 22 this year.

That reliability would certainly be attractive to the Astros amid all the injuries, though the quality has often been quite strong as well, as Cease has regularly struck out roughly 30% of batters faced. His earned run average has oscillated over the years thanks to some wobbles in his batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home run rate. His advanced metrics have held more steady. For his career, he has a 3.69 FIP and 3.82. In a full season, he’s never had a SIERA higher than 4.10 or a FIP higher than 3.72.

This year’s 4.79 ERA in on the high side, though at least part of that seems to be beyond Cease’s control. His .323 BABIP, 68.5% strand rate and 13.3% homer to fly ball rate are all to the unfortunate side. His 3.64 FIP and 3.37 SIERA suggest he’s largely been the same guy as in previous seasons. His ERA is also inflated a bit by a nine-run shellacking in his third start of the year.

Though Cease makes plenty of sense for the Astros on the field, there are other matters to consider. He is making $13.75MM this year, which leaves about $4.5MM left to be paid out. The Astros have clearly tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, dumping money in the offseason by trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. RosterResource currently pegs the club’s CBT number at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold of the tax. That’s just an estimate and it might be off by a few million in either direction.

Perhaps the Astros can add Cease and stay under the line but they also want to add a bat, which could make it tricky. On the other hand, the report from The Athletic suggests that owner Jim Crane likes star players and might be willing to cross the line in order to get someone like Cease. He was reportedly willing to cross the line in the offseason in order to re-sign Alex Bregman, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.

The Astros will also have to offer the Padres something they would like. The Friars aren’t selling in the commonly understood sense. Their plan with dealing Cease is to perhaps save some money, add a left fielder or a catcher, or prospects, or some combination of those goals. They could then use either the prospects or the saved money to acquire another starting pitching to replace Cease.

Houston doesn’t have a strong farm system, so perhaps the prospect part will be hard for them to pull off, though they could help out in some of the other areas. Catcher Victor Caratini is having a good year, though Yainer Diaz is struggling, so perhaps the Astros wouldn’t want to part with Caratini. Though if they did, Caratini is making $6MM this year, so flipping him would give the Astros some extra CBT space.

In the outfield, the Astros are currently without Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez. Their current mix includes Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Jose Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel and Chas McCormick. Houston’s not giving a ton of playing time to McCormick, who has some decent seasons on his track record. However, he hasn’t been good for a couple of years now, so the Padres probably don’t have too much interest. Trammell has been hitting well lately but while striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. Hummel has been DFA fodder all year. Altuve and Smith aren’t going anywhere. Melton might be hard to pry loose because he hits left-handed, something the Astros lack, and is covering center field with Meyers out.

The report from The Athletic points out that the Astros traded three notable prospects to get a rental pitcher at last year’s deadline, flipping Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. Perhaps they could do so again, though it’s unclear if they have the farm system to do it.

If they have some guys the Padres like, it’s theoretically possible that the Friars could then use those guys to upgrade elsewhere. A sequence of events like this helped them land Cease in the first place. They traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe. They then quickly put Thorpe in a package to send to the White Sox to get Cease. Perhaps the Astros can make it work but they will have competition. Cease has also been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.

As for the hitters, the Astros have also suffered a number of injuries to the lineup. As mentioned, Alvarez and Meyers are on the shelf, as well as shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Isaac Paredes and others. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the club would love to get a lefty bat, ideally one who could play the infield and/or left field. Players like Altuve, Mauricio Dubón and Zack Short have some defensive versatility, giving the Astros a bit of flexibility in what kind of bat they add.

Sánchez has been a roughly league average bat in his time with the Marlins. He has a .243/.310/.425 career batting line and a wRC+ of exactly 100. He is making $4.5MM this year, which leaves about $1.5MM left to be paid out. He can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons. He’s been far better against righties in his career, which could appeal to Houston. He has a .179/.228/.287 slash against southpaws but a .258/.330/.459 line otherwise. The rebuilding Marlins likely aren’t clinging too tightly to him.

McCarthy has been good in the past but not this year. He slashed .285/.349/.400 for a 110 wRC+ in 2024, also adding 25 steals and quality defense. This year, he has a brutal .158/.232/.277 line and was sent to the minors for a few months. He did hit well in Triple-A, slashing .314/.401/.440, so perhaps the Astros see a path to getting him back on track. He still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and is being paid around the league minimum, which would be attractive for the Astros.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Mariners Designate Collin Snider For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Collin Snider has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list and designated for assignment. That opens a 40-man spot for left-hander Caleb Ferguson. It was reported earlier today that the M’s were acquiring Ferguson from the Pirates and that deal is now official.

Snider, 29, was claimed off waivers from the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2024 season. He was great for the Mariners last year, giving them 41 2/3 innings with a 1.94 earned run average. He struck out 27.8% of batters faced while only giving out walks at a 7.7% clip.

This year, however, has not been as pleasant. Snider posted a 5.47 ERA in 26 1/3 innings before hitting the 15-day injured list in early June due to a right forearm flexor strain. He began a rehab assignment at the start of July but hasn’t been sharp there either. He has a 5.06 ERA in 10 2/3 Triple-A innings as part of that rehab assignment.

Snider is out of options and would need to be added back to the active roster at the end of his rehab assignment. It seems the M’s didn’t intend to do that. They have added Ferguson to their bullpen already and reportedly plan to keeping adding to the relief corps, so Snider has been squeezed out.

He now heads into DFA limbo. The M’s could try to work out a trade in the next 23 hours. If they can’t do that, Snider will end up on waivers. Perhaps he could garner interest from other clubs based on last year’s success, though this year’s struggles and his injury will tamp down the excitement.

Photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images

Mets Acquire Tyler Rogers

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The Mets have acquired right-hander Tyler Rogers from the Giants, according to announcements from both clubs. In return, the Giants receive right-hander José Buttó, pitching prospect Blade Tidwell and outfield prospect Drew Gilbert. The Giants designated right-hander Sean Hjelle for assignment in order to open a 40-man spot. Gilbert wasn’t on the Mets’ 40-man and won’t require a spot today. Both of the Rogers twins have been traded today, as the lefty Taylor was in the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade.

Tyler, the submarining righty, will be joining a new club for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Giants back in 2013 and has spent his entire career with that franchise up until now. He doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging just 83.1 miles per hour on his fastball during his career. But he has nonetheless found success thanks to his unusual delivery, mixing in a sinker and a slider with his four-seamer.

Perhaps because he isn’t a fireballer, Rogers is remarkably durable. He has never been on the major league injured list. From his debut in August of 2019 to the present, he has appeared in 392 big league games. That’s the most in the majors in that span.

The quantity is great but the quality is also impressive. Rogers has a 2.79 earned run average in his 396 2/3 innings. His 18.2% strikeout rate is subpar but his 4.6% walk rate and 56.5% ground ball rate are both excellent figures. This year, he’s been even better than before. He has a 1.80 ERA this season, along with a 20.2% strikeout rate, 2.1% walk rate and 64.4% grounder rate. He induces heaps of weak contact, as shown by his blood-red Statcast page. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate are all at least in the 94th percentile of qualified pitchers. He is making a $5.25MM salary this year, his final year of arbitration. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

The total package is understandably appealing to the Mets. Their bullpen has been ravaged by injuries this year. Since the season started, they have lost A.J. Minter, Danny Young, Dedniel Núñez, and Max Kranick to season-ending injuries. The bullpen has been a clear priority for them at this deadline. They have already added Gregory Soto and now Rogers gives them another fresh arm. Given all those injuries, Rogers’ durability is surely an attractive feature.

The money is also notable, with Rogers owed less than $1.75MM at this point of the calendar. The Mets are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and are above the top threshold, meaning they face a 110% tax on any spending they add to the ledger this week. Some veteran relievers such as Raisel Iglesias or Kenley Jansen are making eight-figure salaries, so the price point on Rogers is a softer hit for the Mets.

To get the player they wanted, it feels like they have given up a lot. Tidwell, 24, was a second-round pick of the Mets in 2022. Since then, he has generally been ranked as one of the club’s top ten prospects. His results since getting up to Triple-A haven’t been astounding. He has a 5.05 ERA in 164 innings at the top minor league level. He’s been a bit better there this year, with a 4.10 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

Baseball America currently lists Tidwell as the Mets’ #10 prospect. They give him a 50 grade on the 20-80 scale and classify him as high risk. Their report notes that he’ll need to improve his control get become a back-end starter. A month ago, FanGraphs ranked him #7 in the system but with a 45+ grade, noting that he could develop into a mid-rotation guy but with some reliever risk thanks to his control issues and high-effort delivery.

Gilbert, 24, was a first-round pick of the Astros in 2022 but came to the Mets in the August 2023 trade which sent Justin Verlander back to Houston. Gilbert’s stock has dipped a bit since that trade. He missed a decent chunk of 2024 due to a hamstring injury and slashed .205/.313/.371 when he was on the field. This year, he’s been better, with a .246/.349/.435 line and 105 wRC+ in his Triple-A action.

BA ranks him #14 in the Mets’ system, also with a 50 grade and high risk. FanGraphs puts him at #10 with a 45 grade. The latter outlet notes he mostly does damage against fastballs but struggles against spin. He can play all three outfield spots but evaluators generally think it’s a bit of a stretch to have him in center. FanGraphs describes him as a “low-variance fourth outfielder.” He is going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December, meaning he’ll need a 40-man roster spot before then.

Buttó can plug directly into the San Francisco bullpen to replace Rogers. He has thrown 167 big league innings with a 3.45 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate. He is out of options and some of this year’s trend lines aren’t good. His strikeout rate was 26.9% last year but has dipped to just 20.7% this season, while his walk rate has stayed high at 11.1%. Perhaps he was going to get squeezed off the Mets’ roster as part of their deadline moves regardless.

Though it might come across a lot to give up for a soft-tossing rental, the Mets may not have had Gilbert or Buttó in their long-term plans. As mentioned, Gilbert was going to need a 40-man spot in a few months’ time. If the Mets view him as a future Quad-A outfielder and not an everyday regular, perhaps they could find another use for that roster spot. Buttó is out of options and might have been trending towards being designated for assignment.

For the Giants, there’s undoubtedly a lot to like in this haul. They hovered in the playoff race for a lot of the year but have been cold lately and are now five games back of a playoff spot. It was reported earlier that they would be listening to offers on their relievers. Rogers, as mentioned, is a 34-year-old impending free agent.

The Giants have swapped him out for Buttó. That makes their bullpen worse today but Rogers was on his way out the door anyway and perhaps they can find a way to get Buttó back on track. With Tidwell, they add some immediate rotation depth, something which has been an issue this year.

They have Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as a strong one-two but question marks after. They flipped Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal. Verlander is an impending free agent. Landen Roupp is currently shelved with elbow inflammation. Hayden Birdsong had some encouraging results earlier in the year but recently struggled enough to get sent down to Triple-A. The club will likely look for more starting pitching in the offseason but Tidwell can jump into that depth mix alongside guys like Roupp, Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Mason Black and others.

Gilbert gives them some extra outfield depth. They will go into 2026 with Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee in two spots, but Mike Yastrzemski is an impending free agent. Guys like Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, Grant McCray, Marco Luciano and Daniel Johnson are on the 40-man roster. Assuming Gilbert gets a roster spot this fall, he’ll jump into that mix.

If Tidwell becomes a mid-rotation guy or Gilbert develops into an everyday outfielder, perhaps the Mets will feel they overpaid. But there are some reasons to expect those things might not come to pass, so it seems they felt it was a risk worth taking in order to get Rogers and upgrade their bullpen for the stretch run and postseason. Relievers tend to become more important in the playoffs, when off-days allow the top guys to pitch almost every game.

This could be the first of a handful of sell-side moves the Giants make. Verlander is an impending free agent, though he has a full no-trade clause and 4.53 ERA, which could complicate talks. Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores are impending free agents as well. Camilo Doval still has a couple of years of club control but could be on the move as well.

Hjelle, 28, is known for his height and ability to induce ground balls. Listed at 6’11”, he has 149 2/3 big league innings under his belt with a 5.11 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 56% ground ball rate. His numbers have trended in the wrong direction this year, with a 15.1% strikeout rate and 42.3% grounder rate. That’s a small sample of 15 innings, as he’s mostly been in the minors this year. In his 40 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, he has a 2.90 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 51.9% ground ball rate.

The Giants could try to find a trade partner for Hjelle in the next 24 hours. If not, he’ll have to go on waivers. He can be optioned for the rest of this year and could perhaps appeal to clubs looking for pitching depth, though he’ll be out of options next year.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Taylor was headed to the Mets. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Tidwell and Gilbert would be part of the three-player return. Joel Sherman of The New York Post was first on Buttó’s inclusion.

Photos courtesy of Matt Kartozian, Kelley L Cox, Tim Vizer, Charles LeClaire and Sam Navarro, Imagn Images.

Red Sox Interested In Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara

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The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5MM this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7MM this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17MM salary, then there’s a $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Reiner, Imagn Images

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