It’s no secret that the Rays operate differently from virtually every other team in baseball. They trade from and reshape their roster aggressively at virtually every opportunity in order to keep the team from ever needing to rebuild, and it’s a system that’s worked for quite some time at this point. From Willy Adames to Tyler Glasnow to Randy Arozarena, most players don’t stay in Tampa for long and get traded before they’d actually have a chance to sniff free agency and walk away for nothing.
The conventional wisdom for quite some time has been that as a Rays star nears free agency, a trade is inevitable. That would seemingly spell the end of Brandon Lowe’s time with the team. He can be retained via a $11.5MM club option in 2026 but is set to reach free agency after that. Tampa is coming off an 85-loss season in 2025, a worrying sign for a team that hasn’t lost more games than that since 2007. For most clubs, that would further reinforce the need to trade Lowe and focus on the future. With that being said, the Rays aren’t most clubs. Could they continue to zag where other teams would zig and view a tough 2025 season as all the more reason to keep Lowe in the fold?
The 31-year-old is coming off his second All-Star appearance but had a fairly typical season by his standards. In 134 games this year, Lowe slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 homers and 19 doubles. That performance was good for a wRC+ of 114, and he’s typically been around 15 to 25% better than league average by that measure throughout his career. Pretty much any team that doesn’t employ Ketel Marte would happily take that sort of offensive production from the keystone, but Lowe’s offense is especially important for Tampa given that he was one of just four above-average hitters on the roster in 2025 alongside Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, and Yandy Diaz.
That left the Rays as a below average offensive club despite banner seasons from both Aranda and Caminero, with a collective wRC+ of 98 as a team. They also ranked in the bottom half of the league in home runs this year, with the aforementioned four players accounting for 115 of the club’s 182 bombs. Tampa’s offense is one in need of addition rather than subtraction, and it’s hard to imagine the Rays getting more production out of the second base position by trading Lowe away.
Perhaps if the Rays had an elite option waiting in the wings to take over, as they did when they traded Paredes to clear the deck for Caminero, trading Lowe would be an easy call. But it’s more difficult to stick to the typical Tampa playbook when internal options to replace him are somewhat lackluster. Christopher Morel hasn’t panned out since being acquired in the Isaac Paredes trade, and while Carson Williams is a top prospect with a chance to impact the club in 2026, the Rays would be better served allowing him to push Taylor Walls back into a bench role than moving Lowe to make room for him at the keystone. Richie Palacios could be an interesting solution, but moving him to second would only further weaken an outfield that already needs reinforcements.
While the arguments for keeping Lowe in the fold are clear, there is reason to at least consider trading him despite those concerns. Lowe is arguably on the downswing at the moment. His .307 on-base percentage this year was the worst of his career. After walking at a reliable 10%+ clip throughout the majority of his career, he’s now seen his walk rate drop precipitously in back-to-back seasons. He went from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.8% and 6.9% in the two most recent campaigns.
This year was his worst defensive season at second base, and an infield with Williams at second base and Walls at shortstop would be a massive improvement defensively. While that combination wouldn’t hit as well as Lowe and Williams, an outfield that generated a paltry 85 wRC+ this year would be relatively easy to improve and make up for the loss of Lowe’s bat.
Looking at the team’s situation more broadly, Aranda and Caminero are under team control through 2029 and 2030 respectively while Williams figures to be controlled through 2031. That’s an exciting core of young talent, but they’ll need reinforcements as players like Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, Diaz, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen depart the organization over the next two seasons. Letting Lowe walk for nothing would be a big risk for the team’s long-term competitive future, especially if the team’s new ownership group isn’t interested in escalating a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll.
On the other hand, Lowe’s apparent decline might make potential suitors hesitant to give up significant value for him. Installing Lowe in an outfield corner, where he already has 50 career appearances, would be an alternative way to both mitigate the concerns about his defensive ability on the infield while also getting more offensive production from the outfield next year. However, Lowe hasn’t played on the grass since 2022.
The Rays also don’t find themselves hurting for payroll flexibility this offseason as much as they do most years after offloading Ha-Seong Kim, Danny Jansen, and Zack Littell from their books during the season. They could even still recoup value for Lowe at the deadline if they find themselves in position to sell for the third year in a row.
How do MLBTR readers think the Rays will handle Lowe this offseason? Will he still be with the team come Opening Day, or will they trade him before then? Have your say in the poll below:
Seems like a great fit in San Diego. Anywhere but the AL East, sincerely, a Yankees fan.
I think Japan could use him. Anywhere but the AL East. Sincerely, a Red Sox fan.
And Tampa took a big revenue hit with the move to Steinbrenner Field, though that will likely be largely backfilled by increased revenue sharing and luxury tax $. So perhaps more likely to act sooner than later.
They likely can’t replace Lowe’s offense solely at 2B but perhaps adding there and in the OF they can achieve that in the aggregate and deepen the lineup
Opening day? Why not?
Trade deadline. That’s a different question.
one thing rays management said that stuck out to me is that they will always try to do things differently than the year before, continuously evolving. trade deadline will likely have more desperate suitors
They probably should trade him while his value (to some) is the highest.
His PA are a career high by a good margin.
Making counting stats higher than usual.
Same player. Although i dont like that He might be falling behind and trying to compensate, often meaning the end is near.
Some traditional team will bite for more.
“Need a guy in lineup that hits 30 HR.
Proven rbi”
Yes there are much less teams that do this. But there are some.
Mitch Keller for Brandon Lowe, makes sense?
Hope so because playing for Tampa hasn’t helped anybody
Randy Arozarena,Carl Crawford,To an extent a few others haven’t hit after leaving Tampa.
Randy was an all star and hit a career high 27 homers this season?
You win with Crawford but I raise you with a Hanley Ramirez he had an okay run with Boston
Except Hanley never played for Tampa.
Zobrist, Adames, Cron were helped by playing for Tampa
Absolutely, he’s definitely getting traded. Rays will get either MLB ready prospects or prospects that are a ways away.
I wish he would be a good fit for the Giants. But I don’t think his swing works with Oracle Park.
“How can the Tigers get Junior?”, is the real question. Lowe would be a good add on.
Come on now the rays are actually trying to win games
Max Clark + Jobe
I guess it depends on how the new owners will approach roster construction. I’d trade him.
As long as hes healthy hes gone
I think we all agree that his time is short in Tampa. You can count on the Rays min/maxxing their return on a trade. But I don’t think whoever does attempt to acquire him will be disappointed in his offensive capabilities.
Good player, hurt too often!
As a Rays fan, I would be sad to see him go, but his streaky bat and bad back make me nervous and I would almost be ok with whatever youngster we get and rolling the dice.
He should be non tendered, so both? No, he will not be traded and yes he will be playing elsewhere in 2026.
31yo rental making decent salary doesn’t have much trade value. Perhaps they land a pitcher they think isn’t being developed well by an interested buyer.
He definitely has some value. Trade him for a couple years control on a lesser talent
It will be an interesting offseason for the Rays. They have 3 big money guys who could be traded (ie: Diaz, Lowe and Fairbanks). Fairbanks probably has negative trade value with an $11 million option. Lowe has a little trade value at $11.5 million, but not a ton. Diaz probably has the most, but still not enough to make a difference to the Farm. Rays could keep the bats and try to add a player or two with the Fairbanks savings, but they’ve missed the playoffs for 2 years and were 10 games out this year. I’m not sure they can improve enough to make the playoffs in 2026. Not with a Farm that has few prospects ready to help the ML team in 2026. Might be time for a rebuild.
They rebuild every year.
All those words and nothing about the new owners. They have a track record of obsessing over the fan experience, and it’s not out of left field that they might want to have a known name around to market to the fans.