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Richard Lovelady Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Lovelady has opted to reject the outright assignment and become a free agent, according to his MLB.com profile page.

APRIL 4: The Blue Jays have sent left-hander Richard Lovelady outright to Triple-A Buffalo, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment a few days ago.

Lovelady, 29, has the right to elect free agency but it’s unclear if he will do so. Players with at least three years of major league service time, such as Lovelady, have that right. However, a player needs at least five years of service in order to both elect free agency and retain whatever money is still owed to him on his contract. Lovelady is just barely over the three-year line, meaning he’d have to walk away from his current contract if he heads to the open market.

It’s unclear what sort of financial decision he’s weighing. He signed a minor league deal with the Jays in the winter and was added to the 40-man prior to Opening Day. His major league salary on that deal hasn’t been publicly reported.

If he reports to Buffalo, he’ll give the Jays some non-roster depth. His brief time on their major league roster didn’t go well, as he allowed four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. But his career track record is better than that. Overall, he has 101 innings in the majors with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. Both of those numbers are close to league averages but his 50.2% ground ball rate is a few ticks better than par.

This has all resulted in a 5.26 earned run average but perhaps with some bad luck in there. His .301 batting average on balls in play and 65% strand rate are both on the unfortunate side of normal. That’s perhaps why his 4.32 FIP and 4.04 SIERA look far nicer than his ERA.

The Jays currently have Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty as the lefties in their bullpen. Josh Walker is on the 40-man but on optional assignment. As the season rolls along, injuries will pop up or the bullpen will get taxed during busy parts of the schedule. If Lovelady accepts his assignment and he performs well in Buffalo, the Jays could call him back up at some point. If he decides to head to free agency, he will likely be limited to minor league offers from other clubs.

Braves Re-Sign Jesse Chavez To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have re-signed right-hander Jesse Chavez to a fresh minor league deal, as reflected in his transaction tracker at MLB.com. The Apex Baseball client has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett.

The news is not surprising in the least. Chavez is a 41-year-old veteran who has bounced around to various teams in the league, but in recent years, he always seems to wind up back in Atlanta. Going into the 2021 season, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels. When he didn’t make that club’s Opening Day roster, he was released and signed with Atlanta. Going into 2022, he signed with the Cubs but was traded to Atlanta before the end of April. He was flipped to the Angels in early August as part of the Raisel Iglesias trade but was released and back in Atlanta before September. He re-signed with Atlanta for 2023. Going into 2024, he signed a minors deal with the White Sox but didn’t make the Opening Day roster and was with Atlanta before the end of March. The same thing happened this spring, only with the Rangers instead of the White Sox.

Chavez was added to Atlanta’s roster earlier this week and tossed two mop-up innings in Monday’s game. With the pitching staff fairly taxed and Chavez likely unavailable for a day or two, they designated him for assignment. He cleared waivers and elected free agency but is now back with the club on a new deal.

Despite his age, he has managed to stay very effective in recent years. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, he has thrown 203 major league innings with a 2.93 earned run average, 24.3% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 42.4% ground ball rate.

He got squeezed off Atlanta’s roster but is now back to provide them with some non-roster depth. Given recent patterns, he should be back in the big leagues as soon as the bullpen is gassed again and they need a fresh arm.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.

Mariners Designate Hagen Danner For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Hagen Danner has been designated for assignment. That opens a 40-man spot for Luis F. Castillo. It was reported yesterday that Castillo would be coming up to start today’s game, making for an odd bit of trivia as the other Luis Castillo started the prior game for the M’s. An active roster spot was already opened by optioning left-hander Jhonathan Díaz yesterday.

Danner, 26, hasn’t been with the Mariners for long. He was claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in January. He then tossed 3 1/3 innings in the Cactus League, allowing five earned runs. He was then sent to Triple-A Tacoma and started his season with 2 2/3 scoreless innings there.

His overall track record as a pitcher isn’t terribly long. The Jays drafted him as a catcher and tried him at that spot for a few years, but his bat didn’t pan out and they moved him to the mound. He has since put up some decent numbers on a rate basis but with occasional injury absences. Due to those health issues, he still hasn’t thrown 40 innings in any one season.

He has one third of an inning in the majors, which was back in 2023, and then 116 2/3 minor league innings from 2021 to the present. In that minor league work, he has a 2.93 earned run average, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate.

The M’s will now have a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade interest would have to be gauged in the next five days. Danner still has an option, so he could be stashed in the minors by any club willing to give him a 40-man spot. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, the Mariners could hold onto him as some non-roster depth.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Nationals Place Michael Soroka On Injured List Due To Biceps Strain

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The Nationals announced that right-hander Michael Soroka has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 1st, due to a right arm biceps strain. Fellow righty Jackson Rutledge has been recalled in a corresponding active roster move.

At this point, it’s unclear how serious Soroka’s injury is. He tossed five innings against the Blue Jays on Monday but departed with an apparent injury. After the game, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that Soroka had bicep cramps and framed the move as precautionary. Andrew Golden of The Washington Post was among those to relay the update.

Golden relays today that Soroka threw on the field before Wednesday’s game and the club wanted to see how he felt after that session before making a decision. It seems they have decided to put him on the shelf for at least another 12 days, since they backdated the IL move by three, the maximum allowed.

Whether this proves to be a notable injury or not, health issues have been a big part of the Soroka narrative. Back in 2019, he posted a 2.68 earned run average over 29 starts for Atlanta, finishing second to Pete Alonso in National League Rookie of the Year voting. But staying healthy has been a big challenge since then. Most significantly, he tore his right Achilles on two separate occasions. He wasn’t able to pitch much over the 2020 to 2023 seasons, missing 2021 and 2022 entirely.

He was flipped to the White Sox ahead of 2024 and had mixed results in Chicago. He started in the rotation but had a 6.39 ERA through nine starts and got moved to the bullpen. His first few relief appearances weren’t great but he finished strong. He logged 24 1/3 innings over his last 11 appearances with a 1.48 ERA, 42.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. However, he was on the IL for about two months, with a shoulder strain putting him out of action from mid-July to mid-September.

He hit free agency with a bit of positive momentum, generating interest both as a starter and a reliever. He landed with the Nats on a one-year, $9MM deal with the plan being to give him another shot at a starting gig.

That plan is now on pause at least for a little while. Presumably, the Nats will put him back in the rotation if he only missed a short amount of time. They aren’t expecting to be competitive this year and likely have an eye on trading Soroka in July. He would have more value as a successful starter than as a reliever. Though given his injury history, there may come a point where they decide it’s better to keep him in short stints if they think he will have a better shot at staying healthy that way.

In the meantime, a rotation opportunity will be open for someone else, alongside MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. They were off yesterday and start a six-game homestand tonight before another off-day on Thursday. After that, they have a ten-game road trip. Rutledge has starting experience but began this season working out of the bullpen in Triple-A. DJ Herz, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray are all on the injured list. Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Andry Lara are on the 40-man roster but currently on optional assignment. Each has already made a Triple-A start and could be recalled in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images

Astros’ Luis Garcia To Be Shut Down Four More Weeks

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The Astros provided reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, with an update on injured right-hander Luis Garcia. His second opinion revealed “inflammation in his right elbow.” He will be shut down for another four weeks before being reevaluated.

The elbow has been an ongoing issue for almost two years now. Garcia’s last major league appearance was May 1st of 2023. He departed that game with some elbow soreness and it was quickly determined that he would require Tommy John surgery. Given that it usually takes 14 months or more to recover from such a procedure, a return late in 2024 was possible. He started a rehab assignment in June but was quickly shut down due to ongoing soreness and didn’t return to the mound in the later months of the season.

Despite that frustrating setback, it seemed fair to expect him to get 100% healthy in the offseason and be ready for 2025. But he was again shut down two weeks ago due to renewed discomfort in his elbow. He was sent for further examinations and is now facing another shutdown period.

On the one hand, today’s update could have been worse. A four-week shutdown isn’t quite as bad as another season-ending surgery. On the other hand, it’s surely frustrating for Garcia and the club that he can’t seem to get over the hump. Even if he’s healthy in four weeks, he will need the equivalent of a full spring ramp-up, which will probably add another six weeks or so. That means he’s probably not going to be back with the Astros until June even in the best-case scenario. By that point, it will have been more than two years since his last big league game.

Prior to all these problems, he was a solid piece of the Houston rotation. He logged 155 1/3 innings over 30 appearances in 2021, posting a 3.48 earned run average. He made another five starts in the playoffs. In 2022, he made 28 more regular season starts with a 3.72 ERA.

Getting him back into the mix would be ideal but that will have to wait at least another few months. The Astros will likely transfer him to the 60-day injured list once they need a 40-man roster spot. For now, their rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski.

Garcia is one of several injured starters, as Lance McCullers Jr., J.P. France and Cristian Javier are also on the IL. Until someone in that group gets healthy, the top depth starter is perhaps Colton Gordon. He has no major league experience but is on the 40-man roster and throwing in Triple-A.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Padres Select Oscar González, Outright Eguy Rosario

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The Padres announced that outfielder Oscar González has been selected to the 40-man roster and optioned to Triple-A El Paso. To open a 40-man spot, right-hander Jhony Brito was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Friars also announced that infielder Eguy Rosario, who was designated for assignment a week ago, cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A El Paso.

González, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Padres in the offseason. When he didn’t make the Opening Day roster, it was reported that he had an in-season opt-out at some point. That’s presumably why he is being added to the roster but kept in El Paso today. The club doesn’t have a spot on the active roster for him but also doesn’t want him to get away. He’ll give them some optionable depth for now.

He has shown a bit of pop but also with pretty rough plate discipline. He made a splash with the Guardians in 2022, hitting 11 home runs in just 382 plate appearances, plus another clutch home run in the playoffs. But his 3.9% walk rate was very low and dropped to 2.8% the following year. He has also only drawn walks in 4.7% of his minor league plate appearances since the cancelled 2020 season.

When his results tapered off in 2023, the Guardians optioned him to the minors several times and put him on waivers at season’s end. He was claimed by the Yankees but passed through waivers shortly thereafter. He spent 2024 in the Yankees’ minor league system, hitting eight home runs in 78 Triple-A games. He didn’t get called to the majors and was able to elect free agency at the end of the year, which led him to the Friars.

He had a huge .400/.431/.564 showing in the spring but with a .500 batting average on balls in play in that small sample. In four games with El Paso thus far, he has two home runs but a .167 batting average and no walks. It’s a flawed profile but the Padres are perhaps intrigued by the power potential, at least enough to give him a 40-man spot for now.

They have Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. locked into the center and right field positions respectively. The left field and designated hitter spots are more open, currently featuring a rotating cast that includes Jason Heyward, Brandon Lockridge, Gavin Sheets and Yuli Gurriel. Lockridge isn’t fully established as a big leaguer while the other three have been fairly inconsistent in recent years. If any of them struggle or get hurt, the Padres could turn to Tirso Ornelas, Connor Joe or González, who are each on the 40-man.

The reason they had a 40-man spot to work with is that they evidently don’t expect Brito back anytime soon. He started the year on the 15-day IL due to a right forearm strain. The club hasn’t provided any updates on his status but this transfer means he can’t be reinstated until late May at the earliest.

As for Rosario, it’s a bit of a surprise to see him go unclaimed. He is out of options, meaning he would have needed an active roster spot with any claiming club, but his numbers have been decent. His major league work comes in a sample of just 100 plate appearances but he has a solid .245/.283/.500 line in those. He has slashed .279/.363/.493 for a 115 wRC+ in the minor leagues since the cancelled 2020 season. Defensively, he has experience at all four infield spots and right field.

President of baseball operations suggested recently that the Padres would find a trade partner for Rosario. “Eguy’s a big league player,” Preller said. “…He’s going to get an opportunity to go elsewhere and play in the big leagues I would think immediately, and we’ll try to add some value through a trade here in the next week.” But not only did the Padres not line up a trade. No club was even willing to grab Rosario off the wire.

He’ll therefore stick with the Padres as non-roster depth. Since this is his first career outright assignment and he has less than three years of big league service time, he does not have the right to elect free agency.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Cooper Hummel Elects Free Agency

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The Astros announced that utility player Cooper Hummel has cleared waivers and elected free agency. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 relayed the news prior to the official announcement. Houston had designated Hummel for assignment a week ago as they set their Opening Day roster. Since he had a previous career outright, he had the right to reject another such assignment and has exercised that right.

Hummel, 30, will now head to the open market and assess his options. The fact that he cleared waivers means that no club was willing to give him a 40-man roster spot, perhaps a reflection of his out-of-options status.

He should be able to find offers on minor league deals. He has only hit .159/.255/.275 in his major league career, though in a fairly small sample of 235 plate appearances spread across three seasons. His minor league work has been greater in quality and quantity. Since the start of 2021, he has stepped to the plate 1,419 times at the Triple-A level. He drew a walk in 17.5% of those appearances while only striking out 20.9% of the time. His .285/.419/.480 combined line translates to a 130 wRC+. He hit .316/.435/.447 in spring action before the Astros cut him loose.

In addition to those interesting offensive numbers, he provides value on the basepaths and defensively versatility. He racked up double-digit stolen base totals in each of the past two years. In terms of his glovework, he has done plenty of work behind the plate and also lined up at the four corner spots.

He didn’t crouch behind the plate last year and hasn’t played third since 2021, but the overall package is still intriguing. The offense has always been strong in the minors and he looked good in camp recently. He can play first base and the outfield corners and perhaps there’s a club willing to put him back in the catcher position. If he clicks somewhere and gets back to the majors, he is out of options but his service time count is barely over the one-year line, meaning he can be cheaply retained beyond this season if he earns and holds a roster spot.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

White Sox To Sign Joshua Palacios To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox are signing outfielder Joshua Palacios to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Ballengee Group client elected free agency earlier this week after being outrighted by the Pirates.

Palacios, 29, has bounced around the majors in the past few years. He has suited up for the Blue Jays, Nationals and Pirates in the four most recent big league seasons. Broadly speaking, he has hit well in the minors without finding success in the majors.

He has been sent to the plate 433 times thus far in his big league career, with a .230/.286/.364 line in those. That translates to a wRC+ of 75, indicating he’s been 25% below league average overall. He also took 781 minor league plate appearances in that 2021-24 span with a .303/.387/.484 line and 131 wRC+.

The gap between his major and minor league numbers has led to him frequently being sent to the farm and back. He exhausted his final option year in 2024 and is now out of options, which got him squeezed off Pittsburgh’s 40-man.

If he puts together another good minor league showing with the White Sox, they should be able to give him some big league playing time later in the year. Their outfield mix currently consists of Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi, Travis Jankowski, Austin Slater and Michael A. Taylor. All of those players should be available in midseason trade talks, as they all have fairly narrow windows of control on a White Sox team that isn’t expecting to compete in the near term.

Assuming some of those players do indeed get traded in the coming months, the White Sox have a bunch of guys who could pick up some of the playing time. Greg Jones is on the 40-man roster but currently on optional assignment. Guys like Dominic Fletcher, Corey Julks, Oscar Colás and Zach DeLoach have been bumped from the 40-man but are still in the system as non-roster depth. Palacios will join that latter group of guys and will try to earn his way back to the majors.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Red Sox Sign Kristian Campbell To Eight-Year Extension

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The Red Sox announced that they have signed prospect Kristian Campbell to an eight-year contract extension which runs from 2025 to 2032 with club options for 2033 and 2034. It is reportedly a $60MM guarantee which breaks down as follows: Campbell, a Beverly Hills Sports Council client, gets a $2MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary this year. He will then make $2MM, $3MM, $4MM, $6MM, $9MM, $13MM and $16MM in the next seven seasons. The first club option is valued at $19MM and has a $4MM buyout, then the second option is worth $21MM. There are also escalators based on awards voting and All-Star selections. The Sox are buying out two of Campbell’s free agent seasons with the options allowing them to extend their window by two more years after that.

Campbell’s stock has been shooting up for quite a while now. The Sox selected him with the 132nd overall pick in 2023, giving him a signing bonus of just under $500K. He played 22 minor league games just after that signing with a strong .309/.440/.471 line.

His success continued in his first full season. Last year, he vaulted from Single-A to Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .330/.439/.558. That production led to a wRC+ of 180. He drew walks in 14.3% of his plate appearances while only striking out 19.9% of the time. He also stole 24 bases while lining up defensively at second base, third base, shortstop and in the outfield.

That huge season shot him up prospect lists heading into 2025. Each of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic had Campbell among the top ten prospects in the entire league this winter.

That also got Campbell in line to make the majors this year, with second base eventually emerging as the best path. The outfield is already fairly crowded, with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in there now. Roman Anthony will join that group at some point soon. Then there’s Masataka Yoshida, who largely slotted in as the designated hitter last year. But with the Sox going with Alex Bregman at third and Rafael Devers as the DH, there’s no room for Yoshida in there. Bregman could perhaps opt-out after this year but the Sox could have Marcelo Mayer take over that spot, since Trevor Story has shortstop spoken for.

There are lots of moving pieces but Campbell nonetheless got the second base job to start the year. He actually had a fairly tepid spring showing but the club showed faith in him and he has hit .375/.500/.688 in his first five big league contests.

Though he has made his major league debut, this is effectively comparable to pre-debut extensions. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the benchmark for a guy with no service time is Jackson Chourio’s eight-year, $82MM extension from just over a year ago. That topped the previous record, which was $50MM for Luis Robert Jr., a deal that’s a few years in the past. Campbell got past Robert but didn’t quite get to Chourio’s level but that’s fairly understandable. Campbell is turning 23 in June while Chourio was just about to turn 20 years old in March of last year, with that difference giving Chourio some extra earning power.

It’s perhaps not an accident that the club waited until after Opening Day to get this deal done. It was reported last March that players who sign pre-debut extensions, like Chourio, aren’t eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. To discourage service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement put measures in place to encourage teams to carry top prospects on Opening Day rosters. One of those measures is that top prospects who are called up early enough to earn a full service year can earn their clubs an extra draft pick via awards voting.

Campbell came into this year as a consensus top prospect and cracked the Opening Day roster. That means he can earn the Sox an extra pick by winning Rookie of the Year or finishing top three in MVP voting during his pre-arb years. That would have come off the table if this contract were signed prior to the start of the season but is still in play for Boston now that they’ve waited a few days into the campaign.

For Campbell, it’s easy to see why he preferred to lock up this kind of money earlier in his career. As mentioned, he wasn’t a huge name going into the draft. While some players can earn multiple millions on their signing bonuses, Campbell was limited to under $500K. Even though he cracked this year’s Opening Day roster, he wasn’t going to qualify for arbitration until after 2027. This deal allows him to put some life-changing money in the bank ahead of schedule.

Even the top prospects will sometimes struggle in the big leagues and Campbell was a sort of surprise surger last year. If he hits any speed bumps in the coming years, he is financially secure. He is potentially limited himself in the future, though. If the two options are picked up, he won’t hit free agency until he’s going into his age-33 season.

For the Sox, they clearly believe the future is bright and have gained some cost certainty and control over essentially Campbell’s entire prime. Should he continue to thrive on the field in the coming years, he’ll be a relative bargain. Even when he’s making eight-figure salaries in the later years of the deal, that’s still well below what top players get on the open market.

It’s the second significant extension they’ve given out in recent days. They inked left-hander Garrett Crochet to a $170MM deal earlier this week. That was a different animal as Crochet is far closer to free agency and more established as a big leaguer.

Another key difference between the two is that Crochet’s deal doesn’t start until 2026 and therefore doesn’t impact Boston’s competitive balance tax number here in 2025, but the Campbell deal does. RosterResource calculates the club’s CBT number at $249MM, beyond the $241MM base threshold. Back in February, president Sam Kennedy said the club was already over the line and planned to stay there.

Christopher Smith of MassLive first relayed the $60MM guarantee. Julian McWilliams of CBS Sports first reported the option values. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, reported the full annual breakdown and escalators.

Photos courtesy of Kevin Jairaj and Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Padres Sign Jackson Merrill To Nine-Year Extension

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The Padres announced that they have signed star outfielder Jackson Merrill to a nine-year contract extension that runs through 2034 with a club option for 2035. Reportedly, it guarantees the star $135MM. Merrill was previously slated to reach free agency after 2029, so this extends the club’s window of control by at least five years. The outfielder is represented by KHG Sports Management.

The salary breaks down as follows: $10MM signing bonus, $1MM in 2026, $6MM in ’27, $8MM in ’28, $10MM in ’29, $20MM annually between 2030-34. There are $30MM in plate appearance escalators that can push his salary earnings to $165MM. Each time Merrill gets to 500 plate appearances in a season, he adds $1MM to his future salaries for the 2030-2034 seasons. The deal can max out at $204MM and includes a $30MM club option for a tenth season that can be converted to a player option. The club option becomes a player option with a top five finish in MVP voting, while a top ten finish is also an escalator.

Merrill’s breakout was a stunningly impressive part of the 2024 season. It didn’t completely come out of nowhere, as Merrill was a first-round pick, selected 27th overall in 2021. He was one of the top prospects in baseball during his time in the minors. However, by the end of the 2023 season, his experience was still limited. He was drafted out of high school, meaning he had not played college ball. His minor league track record consisted of just 200 games. None of those were at the Triple-A level and only 46 were at Double-A. He wouldn’t celebrate his 21st birthday until April 19th of 2024.

On top of his youth and inexperience, the Padres were asking him to make a major defensive shift. He had primarily been a shortstop in the minors but the Friars had Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts in their middle infield. In center field, Trent Grisham’s bat had fallen off and the Padres sent him to the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto deal. The Padres tried Merrill there in the spring, liked the results and gave him the job.

In spite of his talents, it would have been understandable if there were some growing pains for a guy so young and learning a premium defensive position on the fly. But no such pains were evident, as Merrill flourished. He hit 24 home runs for the Padres last year. His 4% walk rate was low but he also kept his strikeouts down to a 17% clip. His .292/.326/.500 batting line translated to a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% better than league average. He stole 16 bases in 19 tries. Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be league average in center, no small feat given the circumstances. Even more impressively, he was credited with 11 Outs Above Average, a mark that put him in the top ten of center fielders last year.

The overall package was very strong. FanGraphs credited him with 5.3 wins above replacement and Baseball Reference 4.4. That would have made him a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year in many seasons, but Merrill was up against Paul Skenes and his incredible debut. Merrill got seven out of 30 first-place votes and finished second to Skenes in National League ROY voting. He also finished ninth in the NL Most Valuable Player vote.

Kim departed via free agency after 2024 and the Padres could have considered moving Merrill back to shortstop this year, though president of baseball operations A.J. Preller quickly shot that down in October. The move to center field had gone so smoothly that they didn’t want to mess with it. The 2025 season could hardly have started better. Merrill has a line of .400/.435/.600 through six games as the Padres are undefeated.

The Padres clearly love Merrill. That’s why they nabbed him with a first-round pick and promoted him so quickly. They also reportedly discussed an extension with him prior to his debut, showing tremendous faith in him before he had even proved himself in the majors.

After that breakout, they probably wished they had got something done ahead of time, as he only increased his earning potential last year. Broadly speaking, extension prices go up as guys get further into their arbitration years and closer to free agency. We can only guess what number it would have taken to get a deal done a year ago. The Padres have had plenty of financial pressures in recent years but Merrill’s price would likely only go up over time, so now is better than later.

In terms of pre-arbitration extensions, Merrill comes in a bit below the top guarantees but on a shorter deal that will still allow him to hit free agency with a lot of earning power. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the top guarantees for pre-arb extensions are for Fernando Tatis Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodríguez. Tatis got $340MM but on a 14-year deal that essentially bought out his entire career. Witt got a guarantee of $288.8MM on an 11-year pact but he seems likely to opt out after seven years with with $148.8MM banked. Rodríguez got a $210MM guarantee over 12 years but with a complicated club/player option structure that could see him depart after seven seasons.

Merrill’s guarantee comes in a bit below that tier of players but on a shorter deal. The final guaranteed year of this pact will be his age-31 season, meaning he will still have a chance to secure another notable guarantee in the future via free agency. The option could keep him in San Diego another year but he also has a decent shot at converting it to a player option. As mentioned, he already finished ninth in MVP voting in his rookie season, so getting into the top five isn’t far-fetched. He has a decent shot of pushing up his salary earnings via those escalators. He also gets to bank huge money ahead of schedule, as he previously wasn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2026.

For the Padres, they have had a budget crunch in recent years but they love their guys. Over the past five years, this is the sixth extension worth at least $80MM that they have put on the books, the others having gone to Tatis, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Jake Cronenworth.

Since this deal starts in 2026, it won’t affect the club’s competitive balance tax number in 2025. The specific annual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported but early-career extensions often involve gradually escalating salaries. Musgrove’s deal is done after 2027. Nick Pivetta can opt out of his deal after 2026 or 2027. Robert Suarez can opt out of his pact after 2025. Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King are each making notable salaries and are slated for free agency after this year. Though the budget has clearly been tight recently, the Friars evidently felt that they had enough wiggle room in the future to make this work.

It still amounts to a large pile of future commitments. Between Merrill, Bogaerts, Tatis and Machado, they have four mega contracts on the books through at least 2033. In recent years, with the collapse of their TV deal, that’s led to some budget crunches. The front office has had to get creative, including trading away Soto. They got huge value from a $1MM investment in Jurickson Profar last year, though that now looks suspect in the wake of his recent PED suspension. This winter, they took similar low-cost fliers on players like Kyle Hart and Jason Heyward, as well as a back-loaded deal for Pivetta.

Perhaps more such maneuverings are in the club’s future, as they seem content to run an imbalanced payroll with heavily-paid stars while they look for upside plays elsewhere. For fans, that means they can look forward to watching the Merrill/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts core for close to another decade, while the supporting characters might rotate. For Merrill, thanks to his quick ascent to the majors, he was able to put nine figures in the bank while still having a chance to hit the open market in his early 30s.

Robert Murray of Fansided first reported that the two sides were in agreement on a nine-year deal with a $135MM guarantee and $30MM club/player option that could max out at $204MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that it started in 2026. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported the presence of the $30MM in plate appearance escalators that could bump the overall salary payout to $165MM. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald reported the specifics on those escalators. Russell Dorsey of Yahoo reported the $10MM signing bonus, that the club option becomes a player option with a top five finish in MVP voting, and that a top ten finish is also an escalator. Heyman reported the salary breakdown.

Photos courtesy of Orlando Ramirez and Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

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