Phillies Make Qualifying Offer To Jeremy Hellickson
3:56pm: Philadelphia has officially announced the offer to Hellickson.
10:33pm: The Phillies will make a qualifying offer today to right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $17.2MM offer or instead enter the free agent market with the requirement that a new team sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.
Depending upon one’s perspective, this move will come as obvious or as quite a surprise. All the chatter around the team of late has suggested that Hellickson was in line to be tagged with a QO — which became especially clear when the Phils decided not to move him at the trade deadline. But Hellickson has never been a frontline arm and perhaps doesn’t feel like the type of player who’d typically have this level of cash dangled.
Hellickson is coming off of his best season in some time, as he contributed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball to the Phils. His peripherals are in about the same range as usual, though, as he ended with 7.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7% groundball rate. ERA estimators weren’t particularly excited: Hellickson did post full-season career lows in FIP (3.98) and xFIP (3.99), though those are hardly stellar marks. His SIERA has landed between 4.04 and 4.15 in each of the last four seasons, and perhaps that’s the best indication of what teams can reasonably expect moving forward.
Ultimately, it’s not hard to see Philadelphia’s reasoning, especially given the runaway spending seen last winter on starting pitching and the thin supply available this winter. If he were to take the offer, it may be something of an overpay for a single season. But it would only be a one-year commitment, and this organization can certainly afford it — and might even welcome the chance to welcome back the righty after a sturdy campaign. If he rejects it, of course, Philly would line up to add a draft pick that could be quite valuable at this stage of the team’s rebuilding effort.
There’s something of a win-win in the decision for the team. From Hellickson’s perspective, the offer is not welcome, but there are silver linings as well. For one thing, it’s nice to have this kind of cash on the table, even if it’s only on a one-year rate. And the offer suggests that the Phils were impressed with him last year, which provides some information to the rest of the market. If Hellickson prefers to stay in Philadelphia, he could still negotiate a lengthier pact. But given the state of the pitching market, there’s good reason to think he can turn down the QO and still do just fine in free agency.
Angels To Exercise Club Option Over Yunel Escobar
Unsurprisingly, the Angels will pick up the $7MM club option over infielder Yunel Escobar, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. The team would otherwise have paid him a $1MM buyout.
Escobar, who just turned 34, continued to hit after heading to Los Angeles last winter in a deal that sent reliever Trevor Gott to the Nationals. He ended with a .304/.355/.391 batting line and five home runs over 567 plate appearances.
Ultimately, the veteran infielder isn’t a terribly exciting option. He doesn’t walk a ton but also rarely strikes out, and relies upon batting average to make up for below-average power. While he has carried a rather lofty batting average on balls in play over the last two years (.347 and .339, respectively), that’s supported in some part by the fact that Escobar keeps the ball on a line or on the ground much more than the league-average hitter. (He hit fly balls just 20.8% of the time, as against the league’s 34.6% rate.)
Though he was long a shortstop, Escobar isn’t considered a valuable defender at third. Both UZR and DRS have rated him as well below average at the hot corner in each of the last two seasons. Still, there’s value in the fact that Escobar can handle third reasonably, and also that he’d presumably be able to take residence at second if needed.
All said, it was an easy call for the Halos to make. The team recently added another one-year veteran in Cameron Maybin, and is looking to fill in needs on limited commitments wherever necessary. Locking in Escobar leaves the team looking to add a second baseman (or, perhaps, a third baseman) and build out the pitching staff. The future payroll situation remains unchanged thus far, maintaining some flexibility for the organization.
Royals Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Kendrys Morales
The Royals will not make a qualifying offer to DH Kendrys Morales, according to reports from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter) and Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). Likewise, the team won’t extend the QO to righty Edinson Volquez.
Morales, 33, will return to the free agent market without any draft pick compensation required to sign him. The slugging veteran hit his way into contention for the $17.2MM offer, but will not have to make a tough call whether to accept it after declining his end of a mutual option with the team. Instead, he’ll have a shot at securing another multi-year guarantee without having to take a hit to account for the loss of future value any team would’ve otherwise had to account for. (The QO played a major factor in harming Morales’s free agent case after the 2013 season.)
Morales didn’t end the year with the kind of numbers that he posted in 2015, his first of two campaigns in Kansas City, in which he slashed .290/.362/.485 and swatted 22 long balls. But the switch hitter did manage thirty total long balls and finished the 2016 on a lengthy run. Over his final 404 trips to the plate, Morales slashed a robust .302/.364/.547 and launched 24 round-trippers.
There’s plenty of competition in the DH market, which certainly reduces expectations for Morales’s earning capacity. But he commanded two years and a $17MM guarantee the last time he reached free agency, and has a much stronger platform to work from this time around. That he’s capable of hitting from both sides of the plate certainly helps his cause, though his inability to play much (if at all) in the field will constitute a demerit in the eyes of suitors. It seems quite clear that Morales is headed for an American League club after spending the entirety of his career to date in the AL.
Volquez’s own case was all the more clear, though there were rumblings at one point that K.C. would possibly make him a qualifying offer. The fellow 33-year-old, who also turned down his end of a mutual option, still has plenty of velocity. And remains a reliable innings-eater with reliable groundball results in the 50% range. But Volquez ended the 2016 campaign with a 5.37 ERA and just 6.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9, so he’ll likely be valued as a back-of-the-rotation option on the market.
Nationals Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Wilson Ramos
The Nationals will not make a qualifying offer to catcher Wilson Ramos, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). That means that he’ll be able to enter the open market free of any requirement that a signing team part with a draft pick to add him.
Ramos certainly performed well enough to make the one-year, $17.2MM offer an easy decision for the Nats, but his late-year ACL tear drastically changed the calculus. The 29-year-old will likely not be available until the middle of the 2017 season, and may not be ready immediately for catching duties. For a National League team, especially, offering that amount for a half-season (or less) of Ramos was too great a risk to take. He’d have had a chance to lock in a big guarantee before re-entering the market next winter.
That Ramos may have been inclined to take such a sizable sum from the Nats does not mean he’ll be limited to one-year scenarios this winter. To the contrary, his representatives have given signals that they’ll be looking for a four or even five-year deal on the open market. While it’s still possible that some sort of pillow contract arrangement will ultimately make the most sense, there appears to be hope that some organization will take a shot at the upside in a lengthier pact.
After all, the catching market is quite shallow. And Ramos hit enough in 2016 to suggest he could provide value to an American League team as a DH even as he gets fully up to speed behind the dish. On the heels of a shaky 2015, Ramos underwent Lasik surgery and broke out with a .307/.354/.496 batting line and career-best 22 home runs over 523 plate appearances. The still-youthful receiver also showed well as a framer and displayed a big arm.
Clubs weighing a calculated gamble on Ramos will need to consider his checkered injury history and large frame in setting their price. This is the second time he has required ACL surgery, and he has previously dealt with hamstring issues. Ramos also missed a stretch in 2014 with a hamate break, though that was an acute injury and he obviously rebounded in the power department.
A.J. Pierzynski Expected To Pursue Free Agent Contract
Veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski will pursue a free agent deal this winter, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter links). There had been rumblings that the 39-year-old would hang up his spikes at season’s end.
It would seem there’s still a possibility that Pierzynski calls it quits if he can’t find an offer to his liking, but he won’t do so before testing interest. He will enter a market that features quite a few second catcher candidates, though of course that also reflects the fact that many teams will be sending receivers into free agency. With catching in high demand league-wide, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a club take a chance on the elder statesman.
Pierzynski will not be entering another run at the open market with the best of platform seasons. He slashed a meager .219/.243/.304 with two long balls in his 259 trips to the plate last year. Though he played in half of Atlanta’s total contests, even though his season ended early due to injury, Pierzynski failed to tally 100 games for the first time since way back in 2000 — ending a rather remarkable run.
Teams weighing a run at the salty veteran will no doubt be intrigued by his 2015 season, in which he provided the Braves with 436 plate appearances of .300/.339/.430 hitting. That showing earned him a $3MM contract to return in 2016. Over Pierzynski’s 19 major league campaigns, he has also appeared with the White Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, and Rangers, compiling a lifetime .280/.319/.420 batting line and launching 188 home runs.
White Sox Claim Giovanni Soto
The White Sox claimed lefty Giovanni Soto off waivers from the Athletics, Oakland has announced. The A’s had only just added Soto when he became available from the Cubs during the World Series.
Soto, 25, has minimal big league experience. But he has shown the ability to generate some whiffs in the upper minors, and obviously has enough stuff to draw the attention of multiple major league organizations.
Though he has increasingly struggled to keep the ball in the zone, Soto has typically been tough to hit and score runs against. But the 2016 season wasn’t his best, as he allowed 5.7 walks per nine en route to a 5.14 ERA in 49 frames. On the positive side, he did strike out just over ten batters per nine and record a 56.6% groundball rate on the year while holding opposing lefties to a .254/.351/.343 batting line.
Indians Will Not Issue Qualifying Offer To Mike Napoli
The Indians will not make qualifying offers to any of the team’s pending free agents, including first baseman Mike Napoli, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets.
There was at least some reason to believe that Napoli could be considered for the $17.2MM offer, with the team hoping he’d decline so that it could recoup a draft pick if he signed elsewhere. Alternatively, the tag also might’ve helped set up a cheaper, two-year arrangement between the sides.
While those possibilities held some appeal, Cleveland was evidently not willing to pay that much to Napoli in the event he accepted. Given that he just turned 35, and would’ve faced disadvantages had he carried draft compensation with him onto the free agent market, that certainly wouldn’t have been a surprising outcome.
Napoli had a productive year and seemingly played a major role in the clubhouse. That the Indians not only won the AL Central, but very nearly won the World Series, surely helps the case for a return. But if that’s to happen now, it’ll occur after Napoli first gauges the interest of the league’s remaining clubs — and the Indians, too, consider alternatives.
Though Napoli did have a strong year at the plate, his market is relatively constrained since he’s limited to first base or DH duties at this stage of his career. He ended with a .239/.335/.465 slash and 34 home runs over 645 plate appearances, solidly above-average hitting that represented a bounceback from a disappointing 2015. But Napoli’s hefty strikeout tallies remain a concern, and defensive metrics soured on his typically well-reviewed glovework at first.
All told, it seems that Napoli will be in a much better spot on the market this year than he was last, although there are quite a few other lumbering slugger types. Still, he figures to command a multi-year guarantee at an annual rate that handily tops the $7MM base salary he was promised in 2016.
Carlos Gomez Expected To Seek Multi-Year Deal
Oufielder Carlos Gomez is expected to seek a multi-year contract in free agency, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. In fact, per the report, Gomez may attempt to receive as many as five guaranteed years.
That length of contract would be a surprise for someone who’ll soon turn 31 years of age and hasn’t played at his typical levels over the past two seasons. But multiple years certainly seem achievable if that is what Gomez prefers.
The question was — and, perhaps, still is — whether Gomez will be able to secure enough guaranteed money to take a multi-year pact rather than accepting a one-year deal with hopes of boosting his value. Agent Scott Boras has pursued pillow contracts in the past (e.g., Edwin Jackson) rather than settling for disappointing offers, and even took a qualifying offer last year with Matt Wieters before fully testing his market value.
One notable factor is that Gomez is not eligible to be hit with a qualifying offer from the Rangers because he spent the first half of the season with another organization. That distinguishes him from Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond, the other top center field-capable outfielders available, and could help open his market up to some teams that are loath to part with a draft pick.
It’s also fair to wonder whether Gomez has greater incentive to max out his earnings than would some other free agents. He previously took a three-year, $24MM extension with the Brewers — a healthy sum, no doubt, but also far less than he would have been able to command on the open market.
In the final analysis, teams and Gomez will be faced with some tough calls. At base, they’ll relate to the same question: is he still capable of providing significant value up the middle and at the plate? Or is he just a passable defensive outfielder who is no longer a big power or on-base threat?
Gomez has shown both sides of late, of course. In 126 games with the Astros, he managed only a .221/.277/.342 slash with nine home runs (but also 23 stolen bases). But he seemed to be rejuvenated after joining the Rangers, slashing .284/.362/.543 and hitting eight dingers over 130 plate appearances. And Boras suggests to Heyman that the team also helped him improve his vision — lending some credence to the idea that there was a real turnaround rather than a sample blip.
Yoenis Cespedes To Opt Out Of Contract With Mets
NOVEMBER 5: Cespedes has officially opted out of his contract, ESPN’s Adam Rubin writes. The Mets will extend him a qualifying offer on Monday.
OCTOBER 26: Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes plans to opt out of the two remaining years on his contract with the Mets, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. His deal gave him a choice between returning to the free agent market and taking $47.5MM for two more years in New York.
The decision to opt out has been expected for quite some time — if not from the dramatic moment the contract was signed in late January, then since Cespedes completed a mostly healthy and entirely productive campaign. Certainly, it has been apparent to the team that Cespedes would test the market, of course, so his decision won’t come as a surprise when it’s made official after the World Series.
Giving Cespedes an opt-out opportunity was a critical element of the Mets’ pitch to him last winter, when he took a smaller total contract (three years, $75MM) than some other teams offered. While the desire to return to New York certainly seemed to play a role, there was plenty of financial sense in the move as well.
Taking the Mets’ offer gave Cespedes the chance to take home $27.5MM for 2016 and then re-enter the market — which, it seems, is exactly what he’ll do. Alternative arrangements would have reportedly promised him as much as $110MM, but would’ve included deferrals, covered five years, and come without an opt-out opportunity.
That gambit seems likely to pay off, as the 31-year-old posted another huge season and now looks to be the biggest free agent target in a much weaker overall group of talent than was available last year. Cespedes followed up on his monster second half run with the Mets in 2015 with a .280/.354/.530 slash and 31 home runs over 543 plate appearances.
Best of all, perhaps, Cespedes showed increased plate discipline — he posted a career-high 9.4% walk rate — without letting the selectivity sap his power. While he didn’t repeat his stellar defensive metrics, that was due in part to the fact that Cespedes was pressed into duty in center (where he has never rated well) and perhaps also to a nagging quad injury.
Importantly, New York will still be able to slap a qualifying offer on Cespedes. He’ll obviously turn that one-year, $17.2MM contract down, but in doing so will enable the Mets to pick up a draft pick if he signs with another team. A second reunion certainly can’t be ruled out after the team surprised with the first, but it seems the Mets will either need to promise more than they’d probably like to or (perhaps more likely) sit back and wait to see whether Cespedes again fails to find a suitable payday from another organization.
Royals Open Extension Talks With Danny Duffy
The Royals have opened extension talks with lefty Danny Duffy, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. At this point, it seems that discussions have not moved beyond the preliminary stage, but there is said to be mutual interest in a deal.
While there doesn’t appear to be any particular momentum toward a pact — Flanagan says the sides have yet to exchange “firm details or proposals” — it’s notable that the talks are taking place. Duffy is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, making him one of several notable Kansas City players who’ll qualify for free agency after the year. While the club is already locked in for longer commitments on several key regulars, there appear to be some payroll pressures and there is plenty of uncertainty as to how things will play out with so many fixtures set to depart.
Contract talks were inevitable, of course; if nothing else, there’s the matter of Duffy’s final arb payday to be sorted out. MLBTR projects him to earn $8.2MM after a strong year in which he racked up 179 2/3 innings despite making 16 relief appearances to go with his 26 starts. He ended the year with a 3.51 ERA and 9.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, while also showing improved fastball velocity, filling up the strike zone more than ever, and registering a career-high 12.4% swinging-strike rate.
GM Dayton Moore declined to comment, noting only that the club hopes to secure its best homegrown players when it’s able. And Duffy said he wasn’t aware of the talks, though he left no doubt that he is hoping for a long-term deal with the team. “I want to stay with the Royals long term,” he said. “One hundred percent. For sure.”
Despite his evident interest, finding a valuation for Duffy that suits the team’s needs will not be an easy task. Duffy will be entering his age-29 season when he qualifies for free agency, so he’ll have prime years to sell, and he showed enough last year to believe he could line up for a rather significant contract with another quality campaign. While his relative youth also enhances his appeal to Kansas City, it means that the team will either need to stretch beyond its typical comfort zone — after doing so already last winter for Ian Kennedy — or try to convince Duffy to take a team-friendly payout.