Giants Have Had Preliminary Talks With Madison Bumgarner On New Contract
We looked previously at the comments of the Giants’ top executives following the team’s postseason exit, but it seems worth exploring one major long-term question on its own. As Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports, the team’s leadership also talked about the possibility of a second extension for workhorse ace Madison Bumgarner.
There have been at least preliminary discussions between the team, Bumgarner, and his new representatives at The Legacy Group, GM Bobby Evans said. As things stand, though, it doesn’t appear that any significant progress has been made — or that there are any firm plans to chat further this winter.
Bumgarner, 27, just turned in his fourth consecutive season with over 200 innings of sub-3.00 ERA pitching, cementing his status as one of the game’s most productive starters. And his value is only enhanced by his remarkable postseason record; over 102 1/3 total frames, he has dominated to the tune of a 2.11 ERA.
Owing to the brilliant original extension reached by the team, San Francisco has plenty of time to think things over and try to exercise some leverage. Bumgarner will earn just $11.5MM next year and can be retained for two more seasons via successive $12MM options, making him one of the game’s most valuable assets.
That contractual control runs through Bumgarner’s age-29 season, so there’s plenty of relatively young seasons still in play. Obviously, risk and reward is inherent in any deal involving pitching, for both player and team. While it’s easy to imagine something coming together — we have seen second long-term extensions for players such as Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Salvador Perez, and (of perhaps greater relevance) Justin Verlander — there’ll surely be plenty of jockeying involved.
There’s little question that Bumgarner is a screaming value who would command a much greater price in another deal, especially with the price of pitching moving northward of late. Acknowledging that while factoring in the team’s locked-in years and dollars could prove tricky, especially with the fiery hurler’s impeccable health history and dogged consistency driving his potential future free agent value up.
There does seem to be a fairly special relationship between the ace and an organization that has a penchant for retaining its most treasured players. CEO Larry Baer acknowledged as much. “[Bumgarner has] been a tremendous asset for us,” he said. “He’s done historic things. But, look, obviously, we want to make Madison a Giant for a long, long time to come – well-beyond his current contract.”
Still, Baer declined to make a firm commitment as to how hard the team would press to get something done. “I think that remains to be seen,” he said of how the team will prioritize extension talks with Bumgarner. And Evans seemingly suggested that the ball is in the court of the pitcher and his advisers at present. “When they’re interested in talking, we want to make sure we’re available,” he said. “But we don’t have a timeline. We want Madison to be here for a long time. At the right time, we’ll address this when his camp is ready to talk.”
Baggarly explores whether the team’s situation with the equally excellent Johnny Cueto could tie into the timing. As he notes, whether Cueto pitches well enough again next year to opt out of the final four years of his deal will have a major impact on the state of the team’s future balance sheet. San Francisco already has more cash promised to veterans than most organizations in the game, with nearly $100MM committed through 2020.
Those broader considerations will surely weigh into the equation, though it’s tough to imagine the large-market, perennial contenders passing up an opportunity to achieve yet more value from their world-class lefty. Whether and when such a chance will arise figures to be a storyline that will grow in prominence as the three remaining years on Bumgarner’s deal tick down.
Heyman’s Latest: Britton, Escobar, Desmond, Votto, Phillips, D-Backs
In addition to speaking with Orioles manager Buck Showalter about his decision not to deploy ace reliever Zach Britton in the Wild Card game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag covers a number of notable topics in his most recent column. Among the highlights with a transactional component:
- Unsurprisingly, the Royals will exercise a club option over shortstop Alcides Escobar. It’s just $6.5MM (with a $500K buyout otherwise), and the club doesn’t seem willing yet to trust the job to prospect Raul Mondesi. Still the 29-year-old owns an anemic .259/.293/.335 batting line over the last two seasons; even with his typically strong defense and baserunning included, he has been a below-average regular. Escobar will have plenty to play for with free agency looming.
- It’s even less surprising to hear that the Rangers intend to make a qualifying offer to Ian Desmond, the shortstop-turned-center fielder. Texas remains very high on Desmond despite his fall-off down the stretch, says Heyman, and it seems plausible to imagine a reunion. The $17.2MM QO also appears to be the right move from a market perspective, as Desmond ought to be able to command a strong multi-year deal even after turning it down.
- We’ve heard chatter in the past about prior talks between the Blue Jays and Reds regarding first baseman Joey Votto, and Heyman discusses it further in a separate piece. There’s nothing brewing at present, but Toronto has made clear they’d like to be involved if Cincinnati undertakes any chatter on a player who may be the best hitter in the National League. Reds GM Dick Williams tells Heyman that he’s not looking to shop the superstar and also hasn’t been told that Votto (who possesses full no-trade rights) wants to depart. Even if there is mutual interest, of course, there’s the matter of sorting out the cash and prospects — which will likely be a tall order.
- Williams also tells Heyman that he believes the Reds took positive steps at the major league level in 2016, suggesting that the organization is happy to hang onto a highly popular and productive player despite his massive salary. The situation may be somewhat different with regard to second baseman Brandon Phillips, though, with Heyman writing that the team intends to find a way to get Jose Peraza into the lineup quite a bit. They’ll “make this clear” to Phillips, he says, though it isn’t known whether the veteran will be amenable to waiving his own no-trade protection after demanding an extension to do so in the past. The 35-year-old is down to the final year of his deal, though, after turning in a solid-but-unspectacular .291/.320/.416 batting line. Though metrics soured a bit on his glove, Phillips has a long history of strong defensive work. A $14MM tab on a one-year commitment is hardly unworkable, though hypothetically interested organizations may ask Cinci to kick in some cash.
- Heyman also tackled the Diamondbacks‘ front office search. Reported interest in Nationals president and GM Mike Rizzo seems likely to be a non-starter. “I don’t think there’s anything to it,” said Washington owner Mark Lerner, who called it “a totally fabricated story.” The floating of interest in Rizzo could hint that Arizona has its eyes on an exec with experience running a baseball operations department, Heyman suggests, with the team perhaps hoping to return immediately to competitiveness rather than undertaking a rebuild. A general manager with another team suggests that he thinks the D-Backs will need to guarantee a five-year term to draw a strong candidate, given the frequency of front-office turnover in Arizona.
Bo Porter Among Additional Possible Rockies Managerial Candidates
Former Astros skipper and current Braves special assistant Bo Porter is receiving at least some consideration for the Rockies’ open managerial position, according to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The report identifies a number of other possibilities on a growing list of names who appear to be on Colorado’s radar.
Another former Astros’ manager, current Indians bench coach Brad Mills, has also come up. His Cleveland staff mate, first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr., is another name to watch. Obviously, neither of those possible candidates can be pursued in earnest at present, with the Indians just opening play in the ALCS.
Two other bench coaches who could draw interest from the Rockies are Dave Martinez of the Cubs, who also is busy with his current position, and Ron Wotus of the Giants. We heard earlier today that Wotus had received contact from a team with a managerial opening. Given that the Diamondbacks — the other team with an opening — haven’t yet resolved their front office situation, it seems reasonable to suspect that it was the Rockies who came calling.
Today’s report significantly expands the group of names tied in some way to the Rockies’ top dugout post. Last we checked in, the scuttlebutt was that former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke (most recently of the Angels), former Padres manager Bud Black (ditto), Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, Braves first base coach Eddie Perez, and Rockies Triple-A skipper Glenallen Hill had some form of connection to the gig — though in some cases, the reporting involved interest on their behalf rather than the team’s.
All told, that slate largely represents a “who’s who” of skippers-to-be around the game. Those that haven’t yet taken managerial jobs at the major league level have at least interviewed for jobs with other organizations.
Still, the Rockies aren’t just looking to plug in an experienced hand. According to Harding, Colorado hopes to find someone “who will apply statistics and other research into managing and coaching, and who are adept at various methods for creating team chemistry.” In that regard, certainly, the organization seems to be participating in a near-universal trend leaguewide.
NL East Notes: Tebow, Mets, Kelley, Ramos, Washington
The Mets not only gave former quarterback Tim Tebow a $100K bonus, but handed him a cherished spot in the Arizona Fall League, and ESPN.com’s Keith Law argues (Insider link) that both were mistakes. Tebow, 29, lacks the baseline skill of his fellow entrants in the prospect-heavy offseason competition, Law opines after taking an in-person look. The prospect guru panned Tebow’s contact ability at the plate and his instincts in the field, and took no prisoners in assessing the totality of the situation: it was, in Law’s words, “a craven, mercenary move befitting an independent-league team desperate for the added revenue from ticket sales, not something a major league team with postseason aspirations should be doing.”
Here’s more from the NL East:
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins sat down with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post this spring, talking through the season to come with the understanding that their comments wouldn’t be published until year end. At the time, none of the challenges that sprung up during the 2016 campaign were really evident, but both leaders noted the variability inherent in the game and acknowledged that the health of the rotation and lineup could never really be assured.
- Outgoing Nationals free agent Wilson Ramos had successful surgery today to repair ACL and meniscus tears in his right knee, as the team announced and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first reported. Estimates of his recovery timeline are ranging between six and eight months — which would obviously push into the early or middle portion of the 2017 season. Given that uncertainty, but also Ramos’s young age (he just turned 29) and top-level production (.307/.354/.496 batting line, 22 home runs in 2016), his free agent case will be among the more interesting in recent memory.
- The Nationals not only suffered yet another heartbreaking NLDS exit last night, but also watched key reliever Shawn Kelley leave with what looked to be a potentially significant arm injury. He said after the game that he lost feeling in his hand after throwing his final pitch, but there seems to be hope that a major problem has been averted, as MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Kelley suggested that he hopes “it’s just a nerve thing,” explaining that he experienced worsening numbness rather than suffering an acute injury. Kelley is owed $11MM over the next two years and just wrapped up an excellent 2.64 ERA showing in 2016, with 12.4 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 over 58 frames. Needless to say, he’s an important part of the Nats’ relief corps, and the organization already will likely be hunting for a big pen arm with mid-season closer acquisition Mark Melancon hitting free agency.
- Newly-inked Braves third base coach Ron Washington thought at one point he’d land the team’s managerial job, as John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group reports. “I thought my interview was good to the point I got that I had the [managerial] job, no doubt in my mind,” Washington said. “But you never know what the other side is thinking and how it will go. They offered me a different job in the organization.” Though he missed on the top post, and could’ve earned the same money on a two-year deal to stay with the Athletics in a coaching capacity, Washington chose to take a position that would put him closer to home.
Zach Duke Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Cardinals lefty Zach Duke has undergone Tommy John surgery and also had work done to his flexor muscle, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). He’ll miss all of the 2017 season, after which time he is set to reach free agency.
Duke, 33, reinvented himself as a reliever after beginning his career as a mediocre starter. A redemptive 2014 season earned him a three-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. He had delivered 98 1/3 frames of 3.11 ERA ball to Chicago heading into this year’s trade deadline, striking out 9.9 but walking 4.4 batters per nine in that span.
St. Louis didn’t make any major splashes in the summer trade market, but did ship outfielder Charlie Tilson to the White Sox to add Duke. In doing so, the club sought not only to bolster its pen from the left side down the stretch in 2016, but also to get out ahead on its shopping list heading into 2017.
Duke provided the Cards with 23 1/3 quality frames, posting a 26:13 K/BB ratio and allowing just five earned runs on 17 hits. He has been brutal for opposing lefties in recent years, and continued that trend in 2016.
While St. Louis won’t enjoy Duke’s presence in the 2017 pen, it will remain obligated to him for the final $5.5MM of his deal. While there are internal options available, led by Kevin Siegrist, the loss could well have a rather substantial impact on the team’s offseason plans. It squarely puts the club in the market for another southpaw, and perhaps even adds to the case for picking up the option of southpaw Jaime Garcia — who could conceivably be utilized in a swingman role.
2017 Qualifying Offer Set At $17.2MM
3:36pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that one adjustment that has been discussed is that no player would be allowed to be tagged with a qualifying offer in consecutive seasons (Twitter links). That, of course, isn’t a lock to implemented this offseason — if at all — but could be applied from this point forth.
Of course, that adjustment would come with its own potential pitfalls. Many teams that part with a first-round pick to sign a free agent to a one-year deal, as the Rangers did with Desmond and the Cubs did with Fowler last offseason (technically speaking, anyhow, as they’d have netted a pick had he signed elsewhere), do so knowing that the sting will be lessened by the ability to extend a QO the following season in the event that the player performs well. Removing that incentive could make teams even more reluctant to sign borderline free agents coming off of a down season.
2:27pm: The qualifying offer is expected to rise to $17.2MM this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He adds that the QO system is likely to “remain in place,” under the new CBA, albeit with certain “adjustments.”
The specific nature of said adjustments, of course, remains to be seen, but the new figure represents a fairly significant boost to last year’s qualifying offer value of $15.8MM. In fact, that $1.4MM jump in value is the largest single-year increase in the qualifying offer’s value since the system was first implemented in the 2012-13 offseason. In that first year of the system’s existence, the QO was valued at $13.3MM — a figure that rose to $14.1MM in the 2013-14 offseason, $15.3MM in the 2014-15 offseason and $15.8MM last winter. The stark increase in this year’s total is reflective of the overall rise in salaries throughout the game, as the QO’s value is determined by averaging the salaries of Major League Baseball’s 125 highest-paid players.
For those who aren’t familiar with the QO system or need a quick refresher, it’s fairly simple. Teams that wish to receive a compensatory draft pick for the departure of a free agent must extend a one-year “qualifying offer” to that free agent, who has a week to decide whether to accept or reject the QO. If the player accepts, he is considered signed for the following season and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June (as is the case with any free agent who signs a Major League contract in the offseason). If the player rejects the QO, then he may negotiate with all 30 teams, and the team that ultimately signs him must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 selections in each year’s draft are protected, so some clubs may only need to part with a second-round pick.) If a team signs multiple free agents that rejected a qualifying offer, they forfeit their top remaining unprotected pick in each instance. Players are only eligible to receive a qualifying offer if they spent the entire season with the same team. (In other words, traded players and midseason signees cannot receive a QO.)
Until the 2015-16 offseason, no player had accepted a qualifying offer. Generally speaking, the downside to rejecting had been fairly minimal, at least in relation to the upside, as even those who rejected and found reluctance when negotiating with potential suitors still found one-year deals at or near the value of the qualifying offer (e.g. Ervin Santana signing for one year at $14.1MM with the Braves late in the 2013-14 offseason). However, last winter, the trio of Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson accepted their QOs and locked in one-year, $15.8MM salaries for this season. With the continued rise of the offer’s value, it becomes more and more enticing for free agents to accept the deal — particularly those whose free-agent earning capacity is limited to a two- or three-year contract.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently ran down a list of potential qualifying offer candidates in the latest MLBTR Mailbag, noting that a handful of players — Yoenis Cespedes (once he opts out of his contract), Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler and and Mark Trumbo — are locks to receive the offer. While not all of those players will necessarily receive a contract worth more than $17.2MM on an annual basis, each has a strong case for a free-agent deal of at least three years at a significant annual value — more than enough to outweigh the risk of playing one year at a higher rate but incurring an injury or notable downturn in performance that would cause his stock to diminish the following offseason.
There are plenty of other elements of the system, of course, and you can check out this old but comprehensive overview of the system for more. For an understanding of why the qualifying offer matters so much, you can refer to MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes’ previous explanation of why avoiding the qualifying offer is so important for a free agent’s value.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Latest On Rockies’ Managerial Search
The Rockies are officially looking to fill their open managerial position after parting ways with skipper Walt Weiss. While the organization is holding its cards close to the vest, here’s the latest reporting on that effort:
- Former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke is also interested in the position, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Since losing his post with Milwaukee, Roenicke has served as the third base coach for the Dodgers and then the Angels.
Earlier Updates
- Colorado will leave a few staff positions open for a new dugout head after announcing several changes to the club’s coaching staff yesterday (via MLB.com’s Thomas Harding). Pitching coach Steve Foster, pen coach Darren Holmes, and third base coach Stu Cole will return. But the team will be hiring elsewhere after cutting ties with bench coach Tom Runnells, hitting coach Blake Doyle, catching and defensive positioning coach Rene Lachemann, and baserunning, outfield, and first base coach Eric Young.
- Former Padres manager Bud Black says he’s interested in Colorado’s job after missing out on the Braves’ opening, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Black, who has long been considered one of the top managerial free agents and nearly joined the Nationals last year, has served most recently as an adviser in the Angels’ front office. It’s not yet clear whether Black is seen as an option from within the Rockies’ organization, but he has drawn at least some consideration in virtually every managerial search since he left San Diego.
- Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo has long been talked about as a possible managerial candidate, and he once again fits that profile with John Farrell set to remain in command of the team in 2017. As of yet, no rival organizations have asked Boston for permission to speak with Lovullo, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. But it seems reasonable to expect at least one team to take a look. The Rockies may not yet have sought to chat with Lovullo, but Bradford cites sources who indicate that the club has “been asking around about” him. (The Diamondbacks, too, are in need of a skipper but must first sort out its front office.)
- We’ve already heard a few hints of other possibilities. GM Jeff Bridich has acknowledged that Triple-A skipper Glenallen Hill is under consideration. The long-time big leaguer is held in high regard by the Colorado organization, per Bridich, who’ll be hiring his first manager after inheriting Weiss when he was promoted. Braves first base coach Eddie Perez has also drawn interest from the Rox, per a report.
Dustin Pedroia Undergoes Knee Surgery
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia underwent surgery on his left knee yesterday, per a club announcement. Specifically, club orthopedist Dr. Peter Asnis performed a “partial medial meniscectomy and chondroplasty.”
Pedroia was playing with damage in his left meniscus, with an injury suffered about a month ago during a series in Toronto, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Glove (via Twitter). The procedure involves the removal of all or, in this case, part of that portion of the knee, and presumably was performed in hopes of limiting discomfort going forward. The team says that it expects Pedroia to be fully healthy for Spring Training early next year.
The veteran obviously was able to play through the pain down the stretch and into the postseason. He ended with a highly productive .318/.376/.449 batting line with 15 home runs and seven stolen bases. With quality glovework mixed in, more than offsetting the tepid reviews of his baserunning, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference credited him with over five wins above replacement for the first time since 2013 — which was also the last time he topped 150 games played.
Looking forward, Boston owes Pedroia a reasonable $71MM over the next five years under the extension he signed in July of 2013. Though he recently turned 33, Pedroia continues to deliver impeccable plate discipline with a high batting average on balls in play and near-league-average pop. And after a slight dip in his defensive metrics in 2015, he’s back to receiving top marks from both UZR and DRS at second base.
Central Notes: Ray, Salazar, Cards’ Rotation
Brewers first-rounder Corey Ray recently required surgery to fix a torn meniscus, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on Twitter. It seems he suffered the injury while participating in fall instructional activities. The 22-year-old was taken fifth overall out of the University of Louisville in this year’s draft. He spent most of his first professional season at the High-A level, where he struggled to a .247/.307/.385 batting line. Though he’ll lose some opportunities in instructs, it seems fair to think that the meniscus issue won’t pose a major road block in Ray’s hopeful path to the majors.
Here are a few more notes from the central divisions:
- Though indications had been that the Indians may be able to receive a contribution from righty Danny Salazar in the ALCS, it turns out he won’t quite be ready, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. “He’s doing pretty well, but he’s not back to throwing all his pitches or letting it go at 100 percent,” said manager Terry Francona. With the team’s “first priority being about getting him back healthy,” said the skipper, Salazar won’t be pushed.
- The Cardinals will have some sorting to do in their rotation this winter, and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (slideshow link) handicaps the odds of the various internal options heading into the offseason. With Lance Lynn hopefully returning from Tommy John surgery and Alex Reyes all but nailing down a spot, that could leave several rather heralded arms on the outside looking in. Among them are Luke Weaver, Jaime Garcia, and even Michael Wacha. Weaver excelled in the upper minors and showed plenty of promise (but also some areas for improvement) in his MLB debut; he’ll likely return to Triple-A. Garcia remains a major question mark with the team undecided on his option. “There were nights where he looked like he was a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, and then there were nights where I’m sure the manager wanted to punch me,” GM John Mozeliak said of the enigmatic southpaw. And in the biggest head-turner of them all, Wacha is likely out “on paper,” as things stand, in Frederickson’s analysis. That’s still likely open for debate, and certainly is subject to health considerations.