Injury Notes: ERod, d’Arnaud, Carrasco, Sano, Pennington
The Red Sox received a highly promising start from southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez last night, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. While Rodriguez wasn’t quite up to the top velocity he showed last year, he was working comfortably at 93 mph and said he expects to see gains in that department as he continues to build up. The youngster made his 2016 debut just one day before the calendar flipped to June after a prolonged absence due to a knee injury. Boston will surely hope that Rodriguez can provide a boost to a rotation that has had its share of concerns over the season’s first two months.
Here are a few more injury notes from around the game:
- Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud could head out on a rehab assignment this weekend, Rubin reports. His return could provide a big boost to a New York club that has suffered some notable health issues of late. Fellow young receiver Kevin Plawecki has struggled at the plate in d’Arnaud’s stead and could end up being demoted, per Rubin, who says that the team is pleased with what it’s getting from veteran Rene Rivera behind the dish even if he, too, isn’t hitting much.
- There was good news also for the Indians, who expect to start righty Carlos Carrasco on Thursday, as Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets. It seems that Carrasco will be limited to around eighty pitches in his first outing back, but will obviously be expected to ramp up from there. The 29-year-old allowed just six earned runs in his first 22 frames on the year before suffering a hamstring injury.
- The Twins will place third baseman Miguel Sano on the 15-day DL after he suffered a left hamstring strain. As MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports on Twitter, Sano is hopeful that he won’t be out any longer than the minimum, though we’ve certainly seen hamstring issues linger and the organization will want to ensure it doesn’t turn into a bigger issue. Prospect Max Kepler will return to the majors to take his roster spot.
- The Angels appear to have lost infielder Cliff Pennington to an aggravation of his own left hamstring injury, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, with a DL stint seemingly likely. That could means that Kaleb Cowart or Brendan Ryan will be headed back to the big league club, though the former was just sent down and the latter requires a 40-man spot.
Top 10 Trade Candidates
We’re introducing a new series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted.
The methodology — if you can call it that — is pretty straightforward. I’ve done some simple ratings of players for their trade value and trade likelihood, giving me a rough guide to work from, then made finer distinctions from there, aided by the input of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams.
In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the second factor, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end:
1. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Lucroy was a fairly easy choice for me here. He’s playing well, the contract has value beyond this year but not within Milwaukee’s expected contention timeline, he’s established but not old, and he plays a position of need around the league. It’s unusual to see major deals involving catchers at the deadline, but that should change this year.
2. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — It may be too soon to say whether and when the A’s will deal, but things are trending strongly in that direction and Hill is a classic deadline piece as a pure rental whose value is peaking at the right time. He could draw widespread interest, sooner rather than later. Fortunately for Oakland, a recent groin tweak seems unlikely to shelve him.
3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — Braun is mashing at career-best levels in his age-32 season, and now may be the best time for Milwaukee to move on from the four years and $76MM left on his contract after this season. Health is a big question, and Braun’s PED past doesn’t help, but that’s a fairly reasonable rate of pay for a player who could well be the best bat available.
4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — Perhaps the single most likely player to be traded in all of baseball, Bruce is posting above-average offensive numbers and would deliver some pop to another lineup. On the other hand, his defensive fall-off has been precipitous. His option for 2017 delivers some upside, in theory, but it comes with a $1MM buyout and he’s no bargain at a $12.5MM annual salary this year.
5. James Shields, SP, Padres — Shields isn’t the pitcher he once was at 34 years of age, but he’s as steady and durable as they come and is getting better results than might be expected. His contract is a bit of a wild card, since it allows him to opt out at the end of the year. Shields is earning $21MM this year on a deal that guarantees him another two years and $44MM thereafter if he chooses to take it. Chatter is already picking up on the veteran.
6. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino, 25, has been about as dominant as any reliever in baseball. Even if the Braves would like to keep their pen ace around for his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility, the Ken Giles deal serves as a reminder of both the value of controllable late-inning arms and their volatility.
7. Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — He’s a streaky, high-K, low-OBP hitter, and everyone knows it. On the other hand, even after a recent lull, Carter has banged 13 long balls and owns a .500+ slugging percentage through just over 200 plate appearances. Oh, and he’s earning only $2.5MM at 29 years of age, with two more arb-eligible campaigns to come. A return to the American League may be in order.
8. Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins — He’s not the most exciting player, but Plouffe is sturdy and useful. It’s not immediately clear whether Minnesota will let him go after foregoing a trade over the winter, and a middling start doesn’t help his value, but it’s probably time for the Twins to get value with one more arb year remaining. Plouffe is playing at a reasonable, but hardly bargain rate of $7.25MM.
9. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — Just 25 years of age, Teheran is showing signs of returning to being the budding frontline starter that he once was. He’s controllable for a meager commitment, Atlanta has proven willing to trade anyone at any time (well, almost anyone), and the empty cupboard of starters on next year’s free-agent market could increase demand. But GM John Coppolella has significantly raised the bar for a deal of the staff ace, even if he didn’t rule it out entirely.
10. Fernando Abad, RP, Twins — This spot probably could have gone to any number of relievers, several of whom are listed below, but I felt that Abad edged the field with his eye-opening work thus far. He’s allowed just a single earned run on 13 hits and five walks in 19 1/3 innings — while racking up 18 strikeouts and posting a career-best 57.1% groundball rate. Plus, he’s a lefty and he’s been effective against hitters from both sides of the plate this year. Additionally, he’s controllable through the 2017 season.
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Just Missed: Danny Valencia (Athletics); Gordon Beckham and Ender Inciarte (Braves); Jeremy Jeffress (Brewers); Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris, and Fernando Rodney (Padres); Zack Cozart (Reds); Kevin Jepsen and Ervin Santana (Twins)
Injured: Tyson Ross (Padres), Josh Reddick & Sonny Gray (Athletics), Will Smith (Brewers)
Not Yet Eligible: At this stage, there are some teams that are beginning to look like plausible sellers that I’m not quite comfortable considering for these purposes. In some cases, that’s because of unexpectedly solid performances; in others, it’s because expectations were high and the organization is unlikely to act hastily.
The Rays are in an interesting spot; they hope to contend despite an uneven start, but could still move major league rotation pieces (Matt Moore; Jake Odorizzi) given the team’s surplus at the position. The Phillies (Jeremy Hellickson; David Hernandez; Jeanmar Gomez) are still too much in the hunt to go in the sell category, though they could end up there soon enough. Likewise, the Astros have shown signs of life and seem a less likely seller than the division-rival A’s, though they have several short-term pieces (Carlos Gomez; Colby Rasmus; Luis Valbuena; Luke Gregerson) that would be interesting if Houston can’t gain traction. We might eventually see the Angels (Huston Street; Joe Smith; Yunel Escobar) as partial sellers, but they’re not likely to throw in the towel — if at all — until the last moment. On the National League side of the west, the Diamondbacks (Brad Ziegler; Daniel Hudson; Tyler Clippard) and Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez; Jake McGee) are still a good ways away from the tipping point.
Prospect Notes: July 2, Astros, Bell, Draft
Over at Baseball America, Ben Badler provides an outstanding preview of the coming July 2 international signing period. Of particular note, Badler reports that the Astros are expected to exceed their spending limits and incur the maximum penalty (a 100% overage tax and two-year ban on $300K+ bonuses). Houston has been making huge outlays through the draft in recent years, but saw its domestic amateur spending capacity plummet after the club’s excellent performance at the major league level one year ago. With that pipeline now constrained, Badler says the ‘Stros will blow past their available $2.2MM or so in pool allocation on just one player — Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra — while likely adding several other pricey youngsters.
More from Badler’s column and from some other outlets as both the Draft and the 2016-17 international signing period draw near…
- Badler goes on to detail the latest elsewhere in the market, listing some of the high-dollar prospects attached to the Braves, Padres, Nationals, and Cardinals, which are the other clubs he expects to top their cap this year. He also explains the interesting case of Dominican infielder Freudis Nova, who lost an apparent ~$2.5MM agreement with the Marlins after testing positive for steroid use. He now appears to be up for grabs, with his landing spot and ultimate bonus uncertain. Badler writes that the Padres and Astros make sense as logical possibilities, as each is already expected to shatter their bonus pool, while clubs that are planning to stick within their set limitations have largely allocated most of their funds via verbal agreements already.
- The Reds, meanwhile, may yet be able to stay within their second-in-the-majors allotment, per Badler. Cincinnati is still expected to give shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez a $7MM bonus, but could still pick up enough slots via trade to keep the total spend within the limits.
- Sticking with the international free agent scene, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports that Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell, who has been playing in the Mexican League, has asked for his release from los Tigres de Quintana Roo (Twitter link). Per Sanchez, Bell has been hit on both the hand and the arm and doesn’t want to risk a serious injury. It should be noted, too, that Bell was scuffling at the plate in his limited sample, batting just .171/.310/.314 through 42 plate appearances.
- The Brewers‘ top baseball decision-maker, GM David Stearns, has paid visits to watch high-school pitchers Jason Groome and Riley Pint as well as University of Miami catcher Zack Collins, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs reports on Twitter. Longenhagen also adds (Twitter link) that Rockies GM Jeff Bridich recently took a long look at Groome, who was previously favored to go first overall but has slipped in recent mock drafts.
- Speaking of mock drafts, there are several new ones worth taking a look at for those interested in prognostication. Frankie Piliere of D1Baseball.com still likes the Phillies to grab University of Florida lefty A.J. Puk at 1-1, which is also the prediction of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link). Law has Kyle Lewis going second to the Reds and Groome heading to the Braves with the third choice. Baseball America’s John Manuel, meanwhile, now thinks the Phils will go for high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, leaving Cincinnati to grab Puk and setting up Atlanta to take Louisville’s Corey Ray.
Dodgers Designate Alex Guerrero For Assignment
6:06pm: The Dodgers have now announced that Guerrero has indeed been designated for assignment.
2:44pm: The Dodgers are expected to designate utilityman Alex Guerrero for assignment, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group (via Twitter), though the transaction remains unannounced. Guerrero’s rehab assignment for a knee injury is set to wrap up today, forcing the team to make a decision on his roster status.
Los Angeles has long been in a tight spot with the 29-year-old, whose international free agent contract allows him to reject an optional assignment. Plus, if he’s traded, Guerrero would be able to elect free agency in the winter following the deal, which limits his future control rights for potential trade partners.
There doesn’t appear to be much of a fit for Guerrero on the present L.A. roster. While he has seen MLB action in the corner outfield and third base, and spent most of his career in Cuba in the middle infield, he’s generally regarded as a subpar fielder. And the Dodgers already have plenty of versatile options settled in at those positions.
Guerrero has shown promise at times with the bat, though he faded after a hot start last year and ended up with a .233/.261/.434 slash and 11 home runs in 230 plate appearances. And he hasn’t helped himself with his recent performance. After tearing up the minors in his first trip through the system, Guerrero owns a meager .136/.162/.197 batting line in his 68 plate appearances on his rehab stint this season.
With little in the way of future value, not much of a track record, a lack of a clear defensive position, and a relatively hefty $5MM salary, it’s not difficult to see why other organizations haven’t jumped at the chance to add Guerrero. Ultimately, it seems that the Dodgers will have little to show for the $28MM they guaranteed him back in October of 2013. The club has also struck out thus far on Erisbel Arruebarrena, a fellow Cuban signed just months later to a $25MM deal. Of course, the Dodgers have been far more successful with several other large international expenditures.
Dustin Ackley To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
MAY 31: Ackley will undergo season-ending surgery to repair his shoulder, tweets Feinsand.
MAY 30: Yankees utilityman Dustin Ackley has been diagnosed with a torn right shoulder labrum, manager Joe Girardi said today, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports on Twitter. A surgical option is on the table, per the report.
Ackley, 28, had struggled to a .148/.243/.148 batting line over 70 plate appearances. He had shown promise in a brief run with New York late last year after being acquired from the Mariners, but the former top prospect was limited by a back issue.
Originally a second baseman, Ackley has increasingly seen time in the outfield over recent years. For New York, he played mostly in right and at first base, as he’s filled in the gaps that have arisen due to other injuries. A left-handed hitter, Ackley has mostly been utilized against righties; unsurprisingly, he’s been better when hitting with the platoon advantage over his career.
The loss of Ackley for what seems to be a lengthy stretch will obviously force a roster realignment. Rob Refsnyder could function in a generally similar role, though he has limited outfield experience, has never played first as a professional, and hits from the right side. Fortunately for New York, the club has plenty of left-handed-hitting options in the outfield. And for now at least, first baseman Mark Teixeira is battling through his own injury difficulties and poor start to the year. Losing Ackley removes a fill-in option there, though it seems that the club feels reasonably comfortable utilizing reserve catcher Austin Romine and third baseman Chase Headley at first to spell Teixeira.
Ackley’s injury certainly raises questions about his future with the Yankees. He’s earning $3.2MM this year in his second-to-last run through the arbitration process, and could figure as a non-tender candidate if he can’t return to health and turn around his work at the plate later this season.
Bryan Morris To Undergo Back Surgery
Marlins reliever Bryan Morris has elected to undergo back surgery, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. The righty could still return later this season, per manager Don Mattingly, though his timeline appears uncertain at present.
It’s a significant loss for the Fish, who have received 121 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA pitching from the 29-year-old since acquiring him back in 2014. While his underlying numbers, including 7.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, didn’t quite support the results, the hard-throwing righty has been a critical piece of the pen. His velocity had been down a tick this year as against recent campaigns, though it still fell within his earlier-career figures.
Miami is already without the excellent Carter Capps for the year, which depleted the late-inning mix before the season even got underway. Fortunately for the team, Kyle Barraclough has upped his strikeout rate to offset his sky-high walk rates, while David Phelps has emerged as a force. And closer A.J. Ramos is still humming along nicely, though he too has posted somewhat concerning walk rates.
While that group has its share of promise, there’s also quite a bit of uncertainty. If the Marlins can remain in the hunt over the next two months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team dabble in the relief market.
Mets Designate Jeff Walters For Assignment
The Mets have designated righty Jeff Walters for assignment, per a team announcement. His 40-man spot will go to James Loney, who is joining the club for today’s action.
Walters is a 28-year-old reliever who has yet to crack the majors. He showed promise with a strong effort at the Double-A level last year, earning a repeat bid at the highest level of the minors. But over 22 1/3 frames this year at Las Vegas, Walters has coughed up 9.27 earned runs per nine. He has permitted 38 hits, including five long balls, with just 14 strikeouts against 18 walks.
New York will get its first look at Loney in tonight’s action. He’s set to start at first base and take the sixth spot in the lineup. Infielder Eric Campbell was optioned to clear room on the active roster.
Brewers Designate Colin Walsh
The Brewers have designated Rule 5 pick Colin Walsh, the team announced. The infielder’s roster spot will go to Neil Ramirez, who was claimed off waivers.
Walsh, 26, recorded just four hits in his 63 plate appearances on the year. He did pick up 15 walks, but also struck out 22 times in his first attempt at the majors. Though Walsh had survived several prior roster shakeups that could have sent him packing, Milwaukee evidently decided that he no longer was worth occupying a 25-man spot in order to keep his future rights.
Other teams will have an opportunity to trade for or claim Walsh’s Rule 5 rights. If that does not occur, he’ll be offered back to the Athletics, who employed him prior to his selection in the draft at the end of the Winter Meetings last December.
Brewers Claim Neil Ramirez
The Brewers have claimed righty Neil Ramirez off waivers from the Cubs, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Ramirez, who just turned 27, had been designated for assignment by Chicago.
Milwaukee is obviously in quite a different position than their division rivals. The rebuilding organization surely felt more willing to take a shot on a potentially impactful reliever who has struggled this year.
Ramirez, who was acquired as part of the 2013 Matt Garza deal, racked up 57 2/3 innings of 1.87 ERA pitching over 2014-15. He posted an impressive 10.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 in that span.
Of course, Ramirez also missed significant time last year with shoulder issues, and he hasn’t been himself thus far in 2016. While he is still running up a double-digit K rate, Ramirez is very nearly doing the same with free passes and has permitted four earned runs in 7 2/3 innings. The righty has lost over 2.5 mph on his average fastball since his debut season, though his swinging strike rate and zone percentage remain at normal levels.
Milwaukee will surely hope that Ramirez just needs to battle through a rough stretch. If he can right the ship, he’d provide the organization with another late-inning power arm. There’s contractual upside, too: Ramirez entered the year with 1.158 years of service, meaning he comes with four more years of control. Of course, that also makes him a likely Super Two candidate this winter.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/31/16
Baseball America’s Matt Eddy runs down the week’s minor moves. Among those that haven’t yet appeared here at MLBTR:
- Minor league infielder Ryan Dent has been released by the Cubs. Now 27, Dent was taken 62nd overall in the 2007 draft by the Red Sox. He’s never managed to show a consistent bat in the minors, but caught on with a Chicago organization that’s now run by former Boston GM Theo Epstein. Dent was unable to effect a turnaround, however, and now finds himself looking for a new opportunity.
- The Giants released southpaw Mike Kickham, per Eddy. Kickham, 27, made three starts and 11 relief appearances with San Francisco between 2013 and 2014, though he was hit hard in the big leagues. He’s bounced around since and has not recovered the promise that he showed at times in the minors. This year, Kickham had thrown 10 2/3 innings at Double-A, allowing eight earned runs on twenty hits and four walks to go with just seven strikeouts.