Royals In Advanced Extension Talks With Yordano Ventura
SATURDAY: Talks between the two sides are “at the finish line,” Passan reports (via Twitter). Ventura will receive $22MM in guaranteed money in the deal. One version of the contract that was discussed was a five-year deal with two club option years, which would’ve given the Royals control over another of Ventura’s free agent seasons. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter links) reports that the five guaranteed years and two option years is indeed the structure of Ventura’s extension. The contract would begin in 2015 and a source tells Flanagan that it should be completed within 48 hours.
FRIDAY: The Royals are in negotiations with young righty Yordano Ventura about a five-year extension that would include an option for a sixth season, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports. The deal currently being contemplated by the two sides would guarantee Ventura over $20MM.
A new contract along these lines would be a fascinating study in risk and reward for both the club and the Relativity Baseball client. In spite of his excellence at a young age and significant arbitration earning capacity, the 23-year-old seems to profile as something of an injury risk. In addition to drawing frequent remarks on the velocity that comes out of his small frame, Ventura had a few minor arm issues crop up last year.
Ventura will enter the 2015 season with just over one full year of big league service, meaning he projects to reach arbitration eligibility in 2017 and free agency in 2020. While he is at an early position on the service curve, Ventura has already established himself as the type of productive arm worthy of investment: last year, he tossed 183 innings of 3.20 ERA ball with 7.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and a 47.6% groundball rate. ERA estimators indicate that his ERA may be somewhat lower than his real production, but they still credit him as an above-average starter in his first full season in the big leagues.
One significant question, assuming a deal along the lines of that reported does in fact get done, is when the contract kicks in. A five-year guarantee with a sixth-year option would give Kansas City control over one free agent season if it begins with the 2015 campaign.
Poll: Pre-Arbitration Outfielder Extensions
We have not seen much in the way of free agency-avoiding extensions this spring, through there are a few days left for that to happen (to say nothing of the possibility of mid-season transactions). But there have been a few pre-arb deals already, and it just so happens that young outfielders are the extension targets du jour.
Every extension situation is a little different, but finding comparable contracts plays an important role in both negotiating and evaluating deals. So, with three fairly similar players recently signing on the line for life-changing money, I thought it would be interest to see which of these deals MLBTR readers like best.
Christian Yelich, Marlins (1.069 years service): seven years, $49.57MM + club option. This deal is by far the largest of the three covered here and delivers club control all the way through 2022. Still just 23, Yelich may be expected to continue to progress over the life of the contract. Of course, unlike the other players, Yelich plays the corner outfield (albeit quite well). And though he looks to be a high batting average and OBP type, while contributing double-digit steals, Yelich currently has average power. Is that package worth roughly twice the commitment made to the names below?
Adam Eaton, White Sox (2.030 years service): five years, $23.5MM + two club options. Of the deals covered, this one might have the most contractual upside (bearing in mind that Eaton is one service class ahead of the other two) because it delivers lengthy control and flexibility through two option years. Depending upon how one views the 26-year-old Eaton’s injury risk, defensive capabilities, BABIP sustainability, and baserunning upside, this could be quite a bargain. If not, Chicago should have a solid player at a good price and can move on when the time is right.
Juan Lagares, Mets (1.160 years service): four years, $23MM + one club option***. Lagares, 26, is probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. While this contract only puts one free agent year in the Mets’ control, it does allow the team to sit back and watch Lagares vacuum up balls that aging veterans Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer can’t reach without worrying about how much he will cost. It’s a nice price if Lagares can maintain his league-average batting line from last year. And if he can tap into some power, which some observers seem to think he looks capable of, then this deal could become a steal.
***Note that the Lagares contract starts in 2016, making for a total current commitment of five years and about $23.5MM.
So, which contract — not necessarily just which player — would you rather have?
Which Pre-Arb Outfielder Extension Delivers The Best Value?
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Christian Yelich, 7/$49.57MM + 1 option 42% (2,771)
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Adam Eaton, 5/$23.5MM + 2 options 34% (2,260)
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Juan Lagares, 4/$23MM + 1 option 24% (1,613)
Total votes: 6,644
White Sox Outright Maikel Cleto, Onelki Garcia
The White Sox have outrighted righty Maikel Cleto and lefty Onelki Garcia, the club announced (hat tip to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune). Both relievers will lose their 40-man roster spots with Chicago, though it is not yet clear whether the pair has passed through waivers.
Soon to turn 26, Cleto saw by far his most extensive MLB action last year for Chicago. He threw 29 1/3 innings of 4.60 ERA ball, striking out 9.8 but walking 7.1 batters per nine. Cleto still offers intriguing power, with his fastball averaging 97.0 mph last year.
Garcia, 25, has made just three big league appearances in his career and missed most of last season (and saw little game action this spring) after undergoing elbow surgery. Once a top-ten organizational prospect for the Dodgers, Garcia was claimed off waivers early in the offseason.
Dodgers To Sign Scott Baker
The Dodgers have agreed to sign righty Scott Baker, pending a physical, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports (Twitter links). Presumably it is a minor league pact, unless the club intends to place Baker on its Opening Day roster.
Baker, 33, had been in camp with the Yankees before being released. He tossed 10 1/3 innings this spring, allowing nine earned runs but racking up ten strikeouts without issuing a walk.
Baker spent last year with the Rangers in a swingman role, posting a 5.47 ERA with 6.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 80 2/3 frames. He has not been a full-time starter since his 2005-2011 run with the Twins was ended by Tommy John surgery (while in the midst of his best season as a pro). Over 958 innings with Minnesota, Baker owned a 4.15 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
Wolfson reported yesterday that the sides were talking. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweeted that Los Angeles was the “favorite” to add Baker, citing a source who believed a deal was in place pending a physical.
Padres Return Rule 5 Pick Jandel Gustave To Astros
The Padres have returned Rule 5 pick Jandel Gustave to the Astros, Houston announced. Gustave will open the year in Double-A.
The right-hander was originally a Rule 5 selection of the Red Sox, but had his rights dealt to the Royals. He was then claimed off waivers by San Diego. Today’s move will bring his travels to an end, at least for the time being.
Gustave, a raw 22-year-old with a huge fastball, was never really expected to stick with the Padres. Though he has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at a useful pace in the low minors, Gustave has yet to prove he can keep the ball in the zone — let alone that he can consistently retire major league hitters.
Diamondbacks Still Trying To Trade Aaron Hill
The Diamondbacks are still attempting to find a taker for second baseman Aaron Hill, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Arizona has indicated that it will not finalize its Opening Day roster until tomorrow, which could be due in part to efforts to move Hill.
It appears that Hill will start the season on the bench if he is not moved, as manager Chip Hale tells reporters that Chris Owings will start at second with Nick Ahmed taking over at short (via Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic, on Twitter). Needless to say, it appears that the club would be pleased to find a taker for some of Hill’s $12MM salary.
Of course, the 33-year-old Hill has long been the subject of trade speculation, but it has bee hard to find a believer in his bat after a rough .244/.287/.367 campaign last year. Hill had put up two straight highly productive seasons at the plate before that time, at least when healthy, but did not help his cause with a .189/.232/.208 slash over 53 spring at-bats.
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Giants Agree To Extend Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy
8:27pm: Bochy and Sabean have agreed to the extensions and they should be announced tomorrow, Heyman reports (Twitter link). Slightly amending his earlier tweet, Heyman reports that the extensions will run through “at least” the 2018 season.
8:24pm: The extensions for Bochy and Sabean would run through the 2018 season, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Sabean’s deal could also involve a promotion, as CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic reports that he and the Giants have discussed making Sabean the organization’s president of baseball operations. Longtime assistant GM Bobby Evans would then become San Francisco’s new general manager.
9:15am: The Giants are “getting close” to long-term deals for GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy, Bob Nightengale reports in the midst of a longer piece addressing the defending World Series champions. The pair is already under contract through 2016, pursuant to extensions reached back in March of 2013.
It appears, then, that the San Francisco brain trust is not going anywhere soon regardless whether new contracts can be agreed upon. But it is hard to fault the idea of doubling down on a Sabean-Bochy tandem that has delivered three titles in five years, especially after watching other clubs lure rival leaders with big paydays this past offseason.
As Nightengale notes, the recent deals signed by executive Andrew Friedman and skipper Joe Maddon have helped raise the bar in their respective markets. Of course, Bochy, at least, was already said to be paid at or near the $5MM annual rate that Maddon reportedly landed over five years.
As one of the game’s more willing spenders, the Giants might be expected to enjoy somewhat more success than other organizations. And Sabean has not always drawn wide plaudits for his moves, taken individually. But the results speak for themselves: the organization has reeled off winning seasons in five of six years while enjoying entirely unmatched success in the playoff format, all while delivering a variety of popular, star players to a fan base that has turned out consistently.
Added To The 40-Man Roster: Thursday
With rosters being finalized around the league, it’s a busy time for players departing and ascending to the 40-man roster. Here’s the latest:
- The Twins announced that they’ve selected the contract of outfielder Shane Robinson, who had been in camp on a Minor League deal. The 30-year-old Robinson had previously spent his entire career in the Cardinals organization and will presumably serve as the right-handed half of a center field platoon with Jordan Schafer. Minnesota entered Spring Training hoping that Aaron Hicks would show progress and win the center field job outright, but he struggled throughout the month and was optioned to Triple-A, paving the way for Robinson to make the roster. In parts of five seasons with St. Louis, Robinson is a .231/.303/.308 hitter in 452 plate appearances. He’s received strong marks at all three outfield spots, per UZR and DRS, and he hit .283/.340/.370 in Grapefruit League action this year.
Earlier Updates
- The Reds are set to add several veterans to their 40-man roster, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Veteran righties Kevin Gregg and Jason Marquis will be joined by reserves Brennan Boesch and Chris Dominguez on the Opening Day roster, and all will need a 40-man spot. That crunch already led the team to outright reliever Sam LeCure, and several other slots will need to be created before things are official.
- The Rockies have selected the contract of right-hander Rafael Betancourt, the team announced last night (on Twitter). Betancourt, who will turn 40 at the end of this month, has gone through a somewhat remarkable comeback, recovering from Tommy John surgery that he underwent as a 38-year-old to return to the 40-man roster. The former Rox closer has had an excellent spring, yielding just one run on eight hits and a walk with 10 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings. He adds another arm with closing experience to what is looking like a fairly murky bullpen situation in Colorado. It’s worth mentioning that setup man Rex Brothers was optioned to Triple-A and won’t be a factor in the ‘pen in the season’s early stages.
Mets Extend Juan Lagares
After a largely quiet offseason, the Mets have sprung into action by acquiring a pair of left-handed relievers and now formally announcing a four-year extension with center fielder Juan Lagares. Lagares’ new contract reportedly calls for a $23MM guarantee. New York will also pick up a $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for an additional season.
Lagares, 26, is represented by ACES. The annual breakdown of the deal is as follows: $2.5MM in 2016, $4.5MM in 2017, $6.5MM in 2018 and $9MM in 2019. As that indicates, the contract does not kick in until meaning that New York has locked in salaries for all of Lagares’s arbitration years while picking up a club option over his first season of free agent eligibility. Lagares entered the offseason with 1.160 years of service, meaning he’d almost certainly have qualified for Super Two eligibility next year. All told, New York will stand to gain control over Lagares through his age-31 season.
Lagares established himself last year with an outstanding campaign in the field and solid effort at the plate. There is no doubt that his primary value comes with the glove: Lagares led all qualifying outfielders with 25.3 UZR/150, with Defensive Runs Saved and scouting reports concurring in his excellence.
Of course, Lagares had already showed that kind of capability in center. What last year did more than anything was show his capacity on the offensive side of the equation. Lagares slashed .281/.321/.382 over 452 plate appearances, an approximately league average line, while contributing four home runs and 13 stolen bases.
There may not be much upside left in the bat given his age, but the aggregate package has obvious appeal. Lagares was worth 4 fWAR and an even more impressive 5.5 rWAR last year, making him the type of well-above-average player that any team hopes to be able to lock in up the middle.
In terms of the payday, which is yet to be reported precisely, Lagares obviously had some reasonably anticipated caps on his earning capacity since his skillset is presently not valued highly in arbitration. The most obvious comp for this deal is the recent Adam Eaton extension — a five-year, $23.5MM pact (plus two club options) for a center fielder who had one less year of club control but who was on track to qualify for arbitration just three times. Eaton is also 26, and both players have missed some time due to injuries over the last few years. While they profile differently, and appear to have agreed to differently-structured deals, the overall value of the two players is arguably fairly similar.
Another way of looking at it, though, would be to compare this agreement to the Andrelton Simmons extension from last winter. Simmons, of course, is also an elite defender whose bat is slightly below average to average. The Braves cornerstone, then 24, got seven years and $58MM in exchange for his age-24 through age-31 seasons. With this deal, the Mets appear set to control Lagares through his age-31 season with a more modest annual guarantee and lower overall risk.
ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden first reported the deal and its parameters (links to Twitter). Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the final terms (via Twitter; web link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.