Royals Sign Edinson Volquez
The Royals announced Tuesday that they have officially signed right-hander Edinson Volquez to a two-year contract with a mutual option for the 2017 season. The contract reportedly guarantees Volquez $20MM, including a $7.5MM salary in 2015 followed by $9.5MM in 2016 and a $3MM buyout on the $10MM mutual option.
A $20MM contract represents a win for Volquez and his representatives with the Wasserman Media Group — last week, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that Volquez was seeking precisely that figure. Volquez, 31, earned a two-year deal thanks to a strong season in Pittsburgh in which he posted a 3.04 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings, to go along with a 50.4% ground ball rate. His peripherals lagged behind his ERA, with figures of 4.20 for both his xFIP and SIERA, and the Pirates were a terrific fit for a pitcher like Volquez, thanks to their shift-heavy infield defense and their good framing tandem of Russell Martin and Chris Stewart, not to mention well regarded pitching coach Ray Searage. Volquez’s control, in particular, still is a weakness, with five straight seasons with BB/9 rates exceeding 4.0 before 2014.
That doesn’t mean the Royals overpaid, however, or that Volquez can’t successfully eat innings in Kansas City. His stuff is excellent, with a mid-90s fastball that at times ranged into the high 90s last year, to go along with a curveball that he used very effectively. Also, Volquez has managed to pitch at least 170 innings in each of the last three seasons despite his control issues. Heading into the offseason, MLBTR’s Zach Links projected Volquez would get two years and $18MM, only a bit less than he actually received.
While he may not replace James Shields in terms of production, Volquez figures to slot into the space that was previously occupied by “Big Game James.” He’ll join Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy and Jeremy Guthrie in manager Ned Yost’s rotation. While Volquez will undoubtedly miss Martin’s framing and the Pirates’ infield shifts, it’s also worth noting that he’s joining one of the best defensive clubs in baseball and will again call a pitcher-friendly park home, so there’s a good chance that he can pitch well enough to live up to his guarantee.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the deal was complete (Twitter links). SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo initially tweeted that the two sides were close. Heyman tweeted the final contractual details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Details On Ryan Howard’s No-Trade Clause
That the Phillies are interested in dealing away first baseman Ryan Howard and some portion of his contract is well-known. Howard, of course, is in the middle of a huge extension that still includes two years and a guaranteed $60MM (including a $10MM buyout of a $23MM club option in 2017). That contract includes a “most favored nation” clause that allows Howard to match the no-trade terms in Cliff Lee‘s deal, under which the player is permitted to designate all but nine clubs for no-trade protection.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports the details on Howard’s current list of competitors. The nine teams to which Howard cannot prevent a trade are the Tigers, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rangers, Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox. Crasnick suggests that the teams listed are not particularly strong potential suitors for Howard, as most are either small-payroll clubs and/or lack a present need for a player of Howard’s ilk.
The list seems curious from a strategic perspective, in my view, since it includes only American League clubs. The prevailing sentiment around Howard seems to be that he might have some limited trade value as a designated hitter and left-handed bench bat, but it appears exceedingly unlikely that any National League team would have interest in adding him as a regular first baseman. And payroll is not likely to prevent any teams from pursuing Howard, as Philadelphia is expected to eat most or all of his remaining salary regardless of where he is dealt.
If anything, it could be that the list is simply made up of the American League teams that Howard would most like to play for. His money is earned, after all, and it is unlikely that he would be able to exert enough leverage to convince an acquiring team to provide him with some added benefit in exchange for waiving his no-trade protection. (The notion of demanding a guarantee of his option, for instance, seems far-fetched.) Rather than using the NTC as a means of opening the door to extracting concessions, then, the reported list seems to suggest that Howard is open to being dealt to a place where he is wanted and where he would like to play.
Reading the tea leaves for intent is only so possible and so useful, of course. And the bottom line remains the same: nine of the fifteen A.L. clubs can add Howard without receiving his permission.
Rockies Designate Chris Martin For Assignment
The Rockies have designated righty Chris Martin for assignment, the club announced. His departure from the 40-man will open roster space for Nick Hundley, whose signing was announced today.
Martin, a towering 28-year-old, reached the big leagues with Colorado despite not pitching in the minors until age 25. He had signed with the Red Sox after a successful independent ball stint, and came to the Rockies in last winter’s Jonathan Herrera trade.
Though Martin did not put up an impressive ERA (6.89) in his 15 2/3 innings of MLB work, ERA estimators were much more impressed with Martin’s ability to generate grounders (60.8%) and strike out big league hitters (8.0 per nine). And his work at Triple-A with Colorado was rather promising, as he struck out 12.2 and walked 3.0 batters per nine over 26 2/3 frames. While Martin posted only a 4.39 ERA, he was pitching at a hitter-friendly park and in a hitter-friendly league.
Rangers Sign Juan Carlos Oviedo, Designate Matt West
The Rangers have inked righty Juan Carlos Oviedo to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, club executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. Texas also designated righty Matt West for assignment to create roster space for the re-signing of Adam Rosales, Blake further tweets.
Oviedo, who will soon turn 33, returned from a long big league layoff to throw 31 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball last year for the Rays. He put up 7.4 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 over that stretch. On the other hand, ERA estimators were none too excited about his effort. He worked to a 4.52 FIP, 5.32 xFIP, and 4.46 SIERA.
West, meanwhile, is a 26-year-old reliever who reached the big leagues briefly last year with the Rangers. He made just three outings at the MLB level, but put up a solid 3.34 ERA over 56 2/3 frames in the upper minors. West backed those results with 10.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.
Quick Hits: Olivera, Howard, Braves
Here are a few notes from around the game to round out the evening:
- The Athletics appear well-situated to make a run at Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera, writes Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com. Oakland has some financial freedom after its run of divesting veteran assets, and has the flexibility to wait and see if and when Olivera becomes eligible to sign.
- The Phillies have made some significant trades in recent weeks, but must part with Ryan Howard to fully enter a rebuild, opines Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Maikel Franco is ready for a big league roster spot, says Brookover, and Howard should not be allowed to stand in his way.
- Trading away corner outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton was the right decision for the Braves, opines MLB.com’s Terence Moore. The roster was not good enough to be a serious postseason threat, says Moore, and moving those pieces brought back important future assets.
Free Agent Faceoff: Back Of Rotation Starters
With another quiet day turning into an even less eventful evening, I thought we’d spice things up with a look at a particularly interesting segment of the free agent market: innings-eating veteran starters.
Sure, I’m joking. Almost by definition, a back-of-the-rotation innings eater is not a very exciting pitcher. But, then again, perhaps there is something to the idea that this corner of the universe has more intrigue than it might seem at first glance.
Targeting top-end players is fairly straightforward, whereas figuring whether to pursue one or another back-end arm involves much more careful parsing to find value. The fact that most such pitchers sign for short-term deals means that clubs must be right on the player in the immediate term; there is no time to fix them for the future. And then there is the fact that the performance of these players matters a great deal; unlike a utility man or reliever, innings-eating arms are expected to occupy full-time roles. Racking up losses because your number 4 and 5 starters are not competitive is a great way to dig a hole in the standings.
The potential impact of this type of player is evidenced by the list of the best durable, veteran starters still available, several of whom played for contenders in 2014 and one of whom even pitched in the World Series. For better or worse, all of the players listed were allowed to throw at least 150 innings last year, creating plenty of opportunity to add or subtract value.
Kevin Correia: The results are not usually that exciting, but Correia has logged at least 100 innings in every season since 2007. He delivered an average of 178 innings of 4.19 ERA pitching over 2012-13 before suffering through a rough 2014.
Aaron Harang: Last year’s shining example of the importance of choosing your innings eaters carefully, Harang put up 204 1/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA. Sure, there’s a lot baked in there other than his pitching, but the bottom line is that Harang rated amongst the game’s fifty best starters in terms of preventing runs and among its 25 best in logging innings.
Roberto Hernandez: The results haven’t been there for Hernandez, and there is not much silver lining given that he has seen a steady decline in fastball velocity. But he is quite a steady groundball inducer, and showed enough that the Dodgers traded for him and gave him nine starts down the stretch.
Kyle Kendrick: At some point, 199 innings is 199 innings, and that’s what Kendrick delivered last season. He is also a fairly youthful 30 years of age, and is not far removed from producing serviceable results.
Ryan Vogelsong: Though his peripherals are somewhat less promising, Vogelsong has posted pretty darned useful bottom-line results in three of the past four seasons. And he had enough in the tank to run his fastball up to the mid-90s in the postseason.
Chris Young: ERA estimators view Young’s 3.65 earned run mark last year as a mirage, but then again he has always outperformed his peripherals. It had been quite some time since the towering righty had handled a full season in a rotation, but Seattle happily converted his 165 innings of work into a 12-9 record in 29 starts.
Before you vote on the player you think will be the best bet for 2015, you might want to check out these custom Fangraphs leaderboards for a sense of their recent statistical achievements: last year; last three years; last five years.
Which Innings Eater Would You Rather Sign?
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Ryan Vogelsong 37% (5,583)
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Aaron Harang 25% (3,718)
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Kyle Kendrick 17% (2,632)
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Chris Young 16% (2,402)
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Kevin Correia 3% (455)
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Roberto Hernandez 2% (366)
Total votes: 15,156
Giants Out On Shields, Scherzer; Pursuing Zobrist
The Giants are out of the hunt for free agent starter James Shields, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). San Francisco never was in on Max Scherzer, and that remains the case, per the report.
But while an impact free agent arm is not in the offing, the team is still “trying to work a deal” to land outstanding utilityman Ben Zobrist from the Rays. A recent report from Peter Gammons had suggested that match on the veteran, who could potentially plug in at left field for the Giants while serving as a key depth piece throughout the infield. Always a potential piece of trade bait, the pending free agent became a more obvious target when Tampa agreed to terms with Asdrubal Cabrera.
GM Brian Sabean said recently that his organization has limited financial flexibility after re-signing Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo. It appeared at that time that the club would be choosing between a significant addition in the outfield against one in the rotation, and today’s report suggests that San Francisco is perhaps more focused on its lineup.
It would, perhaps, be foolish at this point to rule out entirely the possibility of more aggressive spending given the team’s recent World Series windfall. But the club already appears set to exceed last year’s payroll, and an attempt at two significant additions would bring it well past historical levels, if not even within sight of the luxury tax line.
Dodgers Sign Brett Anderson
The Dodgers have announced that they’ve signed lefty Brett Anderson to a one-year deal. Anderson, a client of the Legacy Agency, will make $10MM, plus up to $4MM in incentives for innings pitched. The incentives would kick in beginning at 150 innings, and Anderson would receive the full $4MM for pitching 200 innings.
The signing represents yet another fascinating move out of the new L.A. front office. Anderson is still only 26 years old and has generally been quite effective when healthy. But he has not thrown over 100 innings since 2010, falling prey to a variety of maladies, including a UCL tear (and resulting Tommy John surgery) and a stress fracture in his foot. Last year, Anderson fell victim to a freak finger fracture on a hit-by-pitch and ended the year on the operating table for a bulging disc in his back.
With risk looming large in his profile, the Rockies paid Anderson a $1.5MM buyout rather than picking up his $12MM club option. Anderson was also pursued by the Yankees and Athletics before picking his new home, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets.
For their money, the Dodgers will be adding a true high-ceiling, high-risk arm for the following season. That is the kind of chance a deep-pocketed club can take, of course, as Los Angeles will have options to fill the void if Anderson fails to stay healthy.
If it all works out, it would not be surprising to find that Anderson becomes the steal of the offseason. He threw to a 2.91 ERA last year in just 43 1/3 frames, posting 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 along with a typically outstanding 61% groundball rate.
Over 494 career innings, Anderson’s earned run average stands at 3.73, but his career FIP (3.51), xFIP (3.52), and SIERA (3.55) all paint him in even a better light. If one accepts the premise that Anderson would have posted better numbers had he not been constantly succumbing to and returning from injury, his true talent ceiling is probably quite high.
Anderson and Brandon McCarthy will, when their signings are official, step into a rotation fronted by Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-jin Ryu. If all five of those arms manage to stay on the rubber for the most part, that has the look of quite an imposing group. Behind them are pitchers such as Joe Wieland, Zach Lee, and Mike Bolsinger. It would not be surprising, perhaps, to see the Dodgers pursue a veteran to hold down the swingman role played last year by Paul Maholm.
ESPN’s Buster Olney originally tweeted that the two sides had agreed to a deal, and reported the basic financial outline. Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan and the Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez reported details relating to the incentives in the deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants To Re-Sign Juan Gutierrez
The Giants have re-signed right-handed reliever Juan Gutierrez to a minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy recently reported. Gutierrez was designated by San Francisco back in November, in advance of the non-tender deadline.
The 31-year-old tossed 63 2/3 frames of 3.96 ERA ball last year for the eventual World Champions, with 6.2 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Though he has mostly performed at roughly replacement level for his career, Gutierrez has suffered from his share of bad luck: all major ERA estimators value his work at a significantly better rate than his lifetime ERA. And his career 3.79 SIERA suggests that he can be a serviceable piece from the bullpen.
Hiroki Kuroda Signs With Hiroshima Carp
Veteran righty Hiroki Kuroda is returning to the place where he made his name: the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league.
Soon to turn 40 years of age, Kuroda remains every bit as sturdy and effective as ever. Since coming to the big leagues from NPB back in 2008 — his age-33 season — Kuroda has never ended a season with an ERA over 3.76. In seven MLB campaigns, he owns a 3.45 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.
Of course, Kuroda had entire separate career in Japan before he came stateside. He broke in at age 22 and threw 11 seasons, all with Hiroshima. His numbers there looked quite similar to his big league marks: 3.69 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
Kuroda will no doubt take a significant pay cut to return to the Carp, but he has the luxury to choose his destination at this point in his career. He ultimately earned a total of $88.3MM over his time in the big leagues, mostly through short-term deals as he continually chose to keep his options open rather than committing to a lengthy pact.
Though Kuroda was of course free to sign with any team, it had long been thought that he would be choosing between the Yankees, NPB, and retirement. In that respect, today’s move resonates most in New York, as the Yanks are left with a rotation full of durability questions.
For the rest of the starting pitching market, the news should have relatively little effect. Most of the quality mid-level starters have already found new homes, and Kuroda likely had a narrow range of suitors.
Jim Allen of Kyodo News tweeted that the Carp had announced the signing; Japanese media outlets Nippon and Chugoku Shimbun first reported that Kuroda was set to return to NPB.