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AL Central Notes: Farquhar, Romero, Goody, Soler

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Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports shares details of the long road ahead for White Sox reliever Danny Farquhar after the right-hander suffered a recent brain aneurysm. The incident occurred in the Sox dugout just under two weeks ago following an outing against Houston, and caused Farquhar to be hospitalized in what was a scary few hours. As Passan notes, 40% of people who suffer a brain aneurysm don’t survive them, while half of those who survive end up with resulting disabilities. He adds that success in the early stages afterwards is measured in small improvements. Farquhar’s agent says he’s been progressing and has a positive outlook. It’s fair to think it’ll be a significant amount of time before Farquhar is able to pick up a baseball again, but the early signs are encouraging for the right-hander’s health. Passan’s lengthy piece also details some historical precedents for aneurysms in baseball players, as well as the adversity Farquhar has already overcome in his seven-year MLB career. We at MLBTR are relieved to hear that Farquhar is stable, and wish him the best of fortunes in the road to recovery.

Other items from around the AL Central…

  • Speaking of close calls, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press has a story from Twins rookie Fernando Romero’s past, when the right-hander almost drowned in a hotel pool. It took a while for Romero to gradually overcome his fear of swimming, but he now uses it as a conditioning method to strengthen his shoulder for pitching purposes. Berardino also tells the tale of how Romero nearly went unsigned for an entire international period, failing to receive an offer from any of the 50 scouts in attendance at a showcase. The main knock on him was lack of a “major league body”, and a perceived likelihood that he’d get hurt. Ultimately Romero found his way to the Perfect Game Tournament, where several more scouts were in attendance, and while the Astros made a strong run at him, he ultimately went to the Twins for a signing bonus of $260K.
  • According to Terry Francona (via a tweet from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com), it’s best-case scenario outcome for Indians reliever Nick Goody, who left the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader with an elbow injury. Tests have revealed no structural damage; it’s thought that Goody’s pain was the result of hyperextending his elbow. He’ll reportedly be shut down for a week and then re-evaluated. It’s a sigh of relief when considering the worst-case scenarios in an elbow-fearing pitching climate; it’s well-known that ligament injuries can result in 12-18 month absences. Goody’s a vital part of a Tribe bullpen that’s recently shuffled through a few low-upside relievers; they’ve designated both Matt Belisle and Jeff Beliveau for assignment in the past week and before that lost Andrew Miller to the DL with a hamstring injury.
  • Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com tells readers about the plate discipline improvements made by Royals outfielder Jorge Soler. In stark contrast to last season, he’s already drawn 18 walks and has seen 4.46 pitches per plate appearance. His .309/.429/.526 slash line on the season is exactly what Kansas City envisioned when they acquired him from the Cubs prior to last season in exchange for closer Wade Davis. Manager Ned Yost credits the improvements to the fact that Soler is “not chasing much of anything”, though it’s certainly worth noting that his chase rate this year is in line with his typically low figures the past few seasons and therefore not indicative of any major changes. I’d add, though, that Soler is certainly seeing more pitches per plate appearance than he did during his injury-riddled 2017 campaign; he’s seen 4.26 PPPA so far, up from 3.99 last season.

Indians Acquire Oliver Drake From Brewers

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Right-hander Oliver Drake, whom the Brewers designated for assignment on Tuesday, has been traded to the Indians for cash considerations. The move was announced by Milwaukee via its Twitter account. The Indians have yet to announce a corresponding move.

On the surface, it’s not difficult to understand why the Brewers designated Drake for assignment; he sports an alarming 6.70 ERA on the season while walking a whopping 8 batters in just 12 2/3 innings on the young season. But while the walk rate is certainly a valid concern, the bloated ERA can be blamed in part on an absurd .400 batting average on balls in play against the righty. That’s been one contributing factor towards a 59.1% strand rate; league average usually sits around 70-72%, while Drake’s career average comes in just under that range at 67.7%. In short, he certainly has nobody to blame but himself for the runners he put on base via free passes, but he’s also suffered from some considerably poor fortune as far as those runners crossing the plate.

The positive signs offer some encouragement for Drake’s outlook with his new club. His 10.66 K/9 so far is a career-high mark, about a batter per nine above his career rate of 10.11. He’s also induced ground balls from 52.9% of opposing hitters this season, which sits just outside the top 25% of qualified relievers in MLB. And while Drake’s 6.70 ERA on the year is an eyesore, his 2.70 FIP is a much more palatable figure and suggests he’s likely to make some improvements in the run-prevention arena.

If he can just improve his control a bit, it’s certainly possible the Indians could end up with another surprise diamond in the rough, as they did last year with both Nick Goody and Tyler Olson. That would be a welcome sigh of relief for a club that’s feeling the pains of losing relief ace Andrew Miller to the DL; their bullpen sports an ERA north of nine in his absence and has shuffled through a small army of relievers in the past four days alone (as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian recently noted). Regardless of whether Drake can perform at a high level, it’s a low-risk move for a club in desperate need of some stability in its relief corps.

Poll: Should MLB Shorten The Baseball Season?

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Most readers have probably already caught wind of the suggestion that MLB should shave a few games off the incredibly long season. But fewer readers probably realize that it’s actually a topic that’s gained some very real momentum. In a lengthy piece on the subject, Jayson Stark of The Athletic dives into this issue, at one point revealing that the topic of a 158-game season actually made it to the “bargaining table” in the negotiations leading up to the 2011 labor agreement. In 2016, MLB actually did some extensive research on the potential effects of a 154-game season due to a suspicion that the players might bring it up, but the union apparently didn’t bring it up; they were focused on other issues.

While eight games might seem like a trivial percentage of the season, it could actually pose a significant reduction in revenue for MLB clubs. According to statista.com, the Yankees brought in about $278MM in ticket revenue during the 2017 season. A 5% reduction in games would mean losing out on nearly $14MM in ticket sales, not to mention they’d be worth 5% less in terms of a television contract.

Of course, the Yankees are an extreme example in that regard; small market clubs make much, much less on an annual basis when it comes to ticket sales. As such, it’s not surprising to learn that twenty-two MLB clubs reportedly had little or no objection to a 154 season; it seems that a vocal eight-team minority would have likely proved a holdup in negotiations.

It’s also easy to imagine that cutting player salaries would be one of the first orders of business in the event of a shortened season. After all, it’s unfair to expect ownership to pay players the same amount for playing 5% fewer games. While Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo seems to be sympathetic to the idea of making less money in order to play a more comfortable season, it seems awfully likely that there’d be some ruckus from at least some of the players. With all the recent pushback over the idea of something as simple as a pitch clock, you can bet that there’d be some loud voices where millions of dollars are concerned.

The benefits to a shorter season, though, are numerous and logically sound. Stark makes a great point when mentioning that beginning the season in the third week of April rather than the final days of March would lop off a dramatic majority of the games played in uncomfortably cold weather; weather that makes the games less enjoyable for both the players and the fans who come out to the ballpark. It’s fair to imagine that the number of injuries and illnesses increase as a result of playing in extreme cold. The number of postponements due to inclement weather also complicate the season schedule.

Concurrently, a shorter season would mean a better chance that the final games of the playoffs could conclude before cold weather sets in. Stark also suggests a longer All-Star break, as well as making all Mondays off-days. From my vantage point, it’s a bit confusing to see how all these things could be implemented with a reduction of only eight games, even if Stark does mention the idea of a few planned doubleheaders scattered throughout the season.

Perhaps one of the most important benefits to a shortened season with more days off is the health and energy of the players. Stark suggests that pitcher injuries could be reduced, which makes plenty of sense. Not only would fewer games make for fewer physically taxing stretches of baseball, but it would also allow players more time to rest and recuperate from smaller nagging injuries without putting their respective teams at a disadvantage.

On a grander scale, this kind of change could have an impact on gameplay and even roster makeup. More intermittent days off would likely allow teams to get by without a fifth starter for large stretches of the season, potentially eliminating many starting pitcher jobs around the league. It could also allow teams to feel more comfortable rolling with one fewer reliever for extended stretches, and it certainly makes sense to think that teams wouldn’t be forced to reach into their vertical depth at Triple-A for a fresh bullpen arm as often as they are now. Basically, while a shorter season could mean a more comfortable job for the players, it could also make for a game in which a small number of pitchers begin to lose their jobs in favor of bench bats or late-inning defensive replacement types.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Should MLB shorten the baseball season to 154 games, or keep things the way they are? (Poll link for app users)

Draft Notes: Mize, Singer, Prospects, BA Mock

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This past Thursday featured a high-octane pitching duel between draft prospects Casey Mize and Brady Singer, and Teddy Cahill of Baseball America has the intricate details of the story in his recent article. Both are expected my many to go within the first ten rounds of the upcoming June amateur draft, with Mize the current favorite to be selected number one overall by the Tigers. Two days ago in Gainesville, Florida, Singer outdueled Mize by allowing just one run while striking out eight, with a small army of scouts, GMs and other front office personnel in attendance. According to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, there was at least one team with its President, GM and Director of Scouting all in attendance, with “about as many scouts as I’ve ever seen at UF”.

A pair of other interesting reads from Baseball America on the upcoming draft…

  • Mize sits high atop Baseball America’s Top 300 MLB Draft Prospects. But while the publication seems confident in its pick to go number one overall, there are apparently “seven or eight players who could make a case to go second overall”. Six of the top ten are pitchers, and seven of the top ten are college talent. Obviously the list runs very deep, so those interested in parsing through the players most likely to go in the first nine rounds should definitely give the list a full read.
  • Baseball America’s Mock Draft of the first fifteen picks, however, doesn’t assume that the first ten teams will draft based on pure talent alone. While they rank Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart seventh in their rankings, he’s projected to go to the Giants at number two overall due to signability. BA mentions that he could perhaps be Buster Posey’s eventual replacement, though obviously that would be pretty far down the road. The mock features a pretty even split between pitchers (8) and position players (7).

Marlins Reinstate Wei-Yin Chen

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The Marlins have activated left-hander Wei-Yin Chen from the disabled list; they’ve designated catcher Tomas Telis for assignment in a corresponding move. Chen will make his season debut tonight against the Rockies.

Chen has had a rough go of it since signing a five-year, $80MM contract with Miami prior to the 2016 season. The pact was based at least on part on the southpaw’s impressive durability to that point in his career, but Chen’s only managed to throw 156 1/3 innings in a Marlins uniform due to myriad injuries, most recently a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. Chen had an opt-out clause in his contract that he could’ve activated this past offseason, but wisely chose not to do so.

His return to the mound will be a welcome sight for a Marlins club that has trotted out a host of inexperienced starters this season, headlined by Jose Urena as the club’s “ace by default”. As a group, their rotation has posted a 5.13 ERA and -0.1 fWAR, both marks that rank among baseball’s bottom five. Meanwhile, they’ve issued walks at the third-highest rate in the majors. They’ll hope that changes with today’s addition of Chen, along with tomorrow’s addition of right-hander Dan Straily, who’s also scheduled to come off the DL and make a start.

Telis, a 26-year-old switch-hitter, was mainly on the roster to back up Bryan Holaday in J.T. Realmuto’s absence; with Realmuto healthy (and homering at a surprising rate), Telis became an expendable piece. He owns a .230/.267/.298 career batting line in 267 plate appearances; he had been even worse than that in a small sample this year in addition to striking out in a career-high 25.8% of his plate appearances.

NL Notes: Bruce, Kang, Stratton, Panik, Gohara, Pennington

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Mets outfielder Jay Bruce has been taking ground balls at first base, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Wagner adds that the Mets may consider playing him there in order to open up room for Brandon Nimmo to receive everyday playing time again. First base incumbent Adrian Gonzalez has struggled mightily thus far, with just a .203/.300/.320 batting line on the season. It’s still only April, but in light of his struggles last year with the Dodgers, Gonzalez’s leash might be fairly short. That’s particularly true since Nimmo reached base in half of his 38 MLB plate appearances this season. It’s fair to think that the Mets are looking hard for ways to lock Nimmo into an everyday role.

Other news out of the NL…

  • Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang won’t receive any discipline from MLB, nor will the team dole out any punishment, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter. Kang was denied a U.S. visa for all of last year due to multiple DUI-related arrests. He’s finally able to return to the Pirates as of Thursday.
  • Today, the Giants reinstated Chris Stratton from the paternity list, optioning outfielder Austin Slater to Triple-A Sacramento in a corresponding move. Within hours, however, the club reversed its reported stance on Mac Williamson’s status, placing him on the seven-day concussion DL. The move allowed the Giants to recall Slater, who’s directly replacing Williamson. Stratton sports an impressive 2.32 ERA and 2.69 FIP across five starts this season, though the fact that he hasn’t allowed any homers despite a 37.8% hard contact rate suggests he might have been a bit lucky in that regard. Stratton will take his scheduled turn through the rotation today against the Dodgers.
  • In other Giants news, second baseman Joe Panik has been placed on the disabled list with a sprained left thumb. The club correspondingly purchased the contract of second baseman/outfielder Alen Hanson, who leads the Triple-A Pacific Coast League with a .403 batting average. The club moved Mark Melancon to the 60-day DL in order to clear room on the 40-man roster for Hanson.
  • The Braves have reinstated left-hander Luiz Gohara from the disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Gohara suffered a sprained ankle during a spring training outing, and had exhausted the maximum amount of time allotted for rehab starts. He’ll likely make a couple more starts in the minors before returning to help the Braves at the major league level. Gohara had figured to be a prominent part of Atlanta’s rotation before the season began.
  • The Reds announced that infielder Cliff Pennington has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Louisville. Pennington, who signed a minors deal in the offseason, made the club out of spring training camp as a bench player. However, he’s struck out in nearly 40 percent of his plate appearances thus far and has yet to sock an extra-base hit.

Injury Notes: Buxton, Sano, Ervin, Knebel, Williamson

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Byron Buxton has a hairline fracture in his left toe, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports on Twitter. According to Hayes, the Twins hopes to have a better idea on his return timeline by the end of the homestand. As Hayes wrote previously, the team has missed Buxton while he’s been sidelined; seven of the club’s eight wins have come with the speedster patrolling center field. It’s worth noting, though, that while Buxton has played typically great defense in the outfield grass, he’s scuffled to a .195/.233/.244 batting line at the plate.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Speaking of the Twins, Miguel Sano will sit out today’s game due to hamstring tightness (h/t Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). Sano, who owns a .450 slugging percentage on the season with five homers and a 40% K rate, barely ran out a ground ball in his last at-bat during yesterday’s game. It’s unclear how long he’ll need to rest. Meanwhile, there’s a positive sign for the Twins: Ervin Santana is making progress and has already practiced throwing his change-up, according to Hayes. He’s reportedly close to throwing off a mound. The club will be anxiously awaiting his return, as their starters as a group sit in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and FIP and dead last in innings pitched.
  • Brewers closer Corey Knebel is very excited about his progress with his hamstring strain, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. He’ll reportedly throw one more bullpen session before heading out on a rehab assignment. It seems likely that Knebel will be able to return by mid-May. Josh Hader, Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes have closed out games in his absence, collecting six saves; that group has combined for a sub-1.25 ERA on the season, so Knebel’s return will make for a truly formidable late-inning crew.
  • It looks as though Giants outfielder Mac Williamson will avoid the concussion DL, as manager Bruce Bochy expects him to start tomorrow (h/t Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic). There was a fear that Williamson might have suffered a concussion after a collision with the outfield wall on Tuesday, but the 27-year-old appears to have dodged any serious injury. Williamson already has three homers for San Francisco in just 19 plate appearances.

Twins Designate David Hale, Select Matt Magill

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10:36am: The Twins have selected the contract of right-hander Matt Magill in a corresponding roster move. Magill owns a 6.47 ERA in 32 major league innings between the Dodgers and Reds; remarkably he’s walked more than a batter an inning at the game’s highest level.

8:38am: The Twins have designated right-hander David Hale for assignment, according to a team announcement. A corresponding roster move is expected at some point today.

Minnesota had claimed Hale off waivers from the Yankees less than 48 hours ago. Recent comments from GM Thad Levine suggested that his club had shown interest in Hale as far back as the offseason, when they made attempts to sign him to a minors pact and ultimately lost out to the Yankees in those efforts. Whatever interest the club had was clearly tempered last night after they watched him walk four hitters and allow four earned runs in just three relief innings against a cellar-dwelling Cincinnati ballclub.

While Hale’s short leash certainly tells a clear story about the capacity in which Minnesota views the 30-year-old, it’s fair to imagine that the club might still be hoping they can keep him by sneaking him through waivers. Levine went on record saying that the club likes his pitch profile; the righty throws a four-seamer, sinker, change-up and slider, though it should be noted that all of those pitches are negative throughout his career in terms of weighted runs above average per 100 pitches.

For the Twins, it’s the latest development in a story of bullpen despair early on in 2018. As a group, their relievers own the second-highest ERA and FIP in the major leagues, second only to the Royals. It’s fortunate that they’ve been asked to shoulder the fifth-smallest workload in terms of innings thus far, but the Hale experiment now looks like yet another shortcoming in a desperate search for bullpen stability; he’s already the twelfth reliever to make an appearance for them Twins in 2018.

Cubs Activate Ben Zobrist, Option David Bote; Bryant Back In Lineup

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Ben Zobrist has been activated from the 10-day disabled list and will bat seventh today against the Brewers, Bruce Levine of 760thescore.com reports. Kris Bryant will also make his return to the lineup after sitting out for a few days following a hit-by-pitch injury. In a corresponding move, the Cubs have optioned third baseman David Bote to Triple-A Iowa.

Zobrist was off to an impressive start in 49 plate appearances, accruing a .326 average and .408 on-base percentage before a lower back strain sent him to the DL. Though landed there on April 21st, he was eligible to return today because the move was retroactive to April 18th.

Bryant was hit in the head by a 96-MPH fastball on Sunday and has been held out of the lineup as a precaution ever since, even though he’d been cleared of all concussion symptoms on the same day he suffered the injury.  “This is about a young man’s life and how he feels 30-40 years from now, so I’m all into that … Getting him back on the horse is always a good thing, obviously, so I think he’s going to be fine,” manager Joe Maddon had said of the injury on Thursday.

The 25-year-old Bote made just nine plate appearances in Zobrist’s absence, and managed just one hit while striking out three times. It was Bote’s first taste of the major leagues; he’s been a career Cubs farmhand since the club selected him in the 18th round of the 2012 draft. He’ll head back to Triple-A for the time being, where he’s got a .511 slugging percentage on the young season.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Following their fifth consecutive losing season, the Phillies added some talented veteran pieces to supplement an exciting young core. While they’re far from a perfect ballclub, their winter moves have likely shortened their rebuilding period.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It’s been a trying half-decade for the Phillies fan base. After being spoiled by nine consecutive winning seasons (including a World Series championship), they’ve watched their beloved ballclub limp to .500 or worse finishes in each of the six years since 2012, including a 66-96 record in 2017. Perhaps the front office had begun to feel pressure to put a winning product on the field, or perhaps the timing was just right; either way, GM Matt Klentak and crew made a couple of surprising headliner moves worth being excited about.

Four free agent acquisitions served to add about $65MM to the 2018 payroll. While that may seem like a lot for a team that still looked to be in rebuild mode, the Phillies only had about $30MM on the books before those moves. For a ballclub that routinely spent $138MM or more on player salaries between 2010 and 2015, it’s almost as though they had to spend that money on at least something. In fact, Philadelphia would have opened the season with its lowest payroll since 2002 (!!) had it not been for the last-minute signing of Arrieta. For reference, that’s before Ryan Howard and Chase Utley had even reached the major leagues. One could say that the Phillies addressed a need simply by avoiding a controversially-low spend level at the season’s outset.

That said, it’s fair to wonder how much the 32-year-old righty moves the needle for the Phillies now or in the future. In spite of a hot start, the Phillies don’t seem particularly likely to keep up with the Mets or Nationals all season. Furthermore, Arrieta has exhibited a steady decline since his otherwordly 2015 Cy Young campaign and doesn’t look likely to deliver value on the $45MM he’s owed from 2019-2020. It’s even conceivable that the Phillies could consider flipping him this summer if he’s outperforming the rest of the roster, in essence flexing their financial muscle in order to add more MLB-ready (or MLB-adjacent) young talent, though that’d mean opening another near-future rotation hole.

Regardless, the additions of Arrieta and first baseman Santana allow the Phillies to put a competitive team on the field for the first time in many years. The additions of Hunter and Neshek came at a premium annual price tag but will bring veteran depth to an otherwise youthful relief unit. While they’re still far from a complete club, the Phillies have patched a few holes and given the fans more reason to come to the ballpark.

More importantly, they avoided committing to lengthy contracts in making these improvements. Santana and Arrieta are only on the books for three years, meaning if either contract goes bad, it won’t necessarily detract from the club’s next contention window in a major way. Interestingly enough, it’s almost as though Klentak and co. did just enough this offseason to show Phillies fans a clear light at the end of the tunnel without limiting their flexibility to spend big in the coming years.

Not to be lost on Phillies fans was a subtle move the franchise made to pave the way for shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford. The trade of Galvis to the Padres allows Crawford everyday playing time; it also cleared an unnecessary salary obligation while adding an intriguing young pitcher to the farm system in Enyel De Los Santos. While the 22-year-old right-hander didn’t seem to be an especially exciting addition at the time of the swap, his hot start in Triple-A has opened some eyes already by striking out a whopping 22 batters in 13.2 innings (three starts) en route to a 1.98 ERA.

The club filled its managerial opening with Gabe Kapler, whose only managerial experience was a year with the Red Sox A-ball affiliate. His greenhorn status showed early on in the season with some questionable pitching management, which he responded to responsibly by drawing up a few bullpen usage guidelines. A string of positive outcomes has re-focused the attention on the more promising aspects of Kapler’s non-traditional approach to his new job, which will surely be examined closely all year long.

The Phillies also placed a strong bet on the talent of Scott Kingery, signing him to a six-year, $24MM extension that allowed the club to promote him for opening day without worrying about service time considerations. Primarily a second baseman by trade, he’ll play all over the field for the time being. He’s one of just two players ever to ink a contract extension before ever playing a day in the major leagues (Phillies brass will hope he pans out better than Jon Singleton), and a triad of club options can keep him in Philadelphia through 2026 for an annual average of $14MM if they’re all exercised. The bold move allows the club to gain cost control over a high-ceiling player during years when they’re a strong bet to be competitive, and indeed helps extend that control through a few would-be free agent seasons without a pricey commitment.

Questions Remaining

If there’s an arguable shortcoming in Philadelphia’s offseason efforts, it could be that the club was not able to extend club control over more of their young core. There’s certainly a lot of variability in the extension process; a player has to be willing to get a deal done, after all. But while it’s not known exactly how much effort the club made to lock up players like Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams or Jorge Alfaro, it’s a bit disappointing that they weren’t able to get more pacts hammered out. On the other hand, there was no real urgency to get a deal done, particularly for the latter three, and the front office may prefer to see how things play out in some cases. While the Kingery deal has a lot of financial upside and was certainly an exciting maneuver, it’s certainly not the norm for a club to hand out long-term pacts to players with less than a year of service time.

The more interesting aspect of the terrain ahead for the Phillies is how they’ve set themselves up for the coming offseason. As I mentioned above, they’ve subtly managed to add headliner free agent talent without limiting impacting flexibility for their long-term future. That means they’re still potentially in play for names like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, Craig Kimbrel, and Clayton Kershaw in the coming winter, all of whom could significantly move the needle during their impending competitive window.

In the near term, though, the most interesting subject of note is how the Phillies will proceed with players such as Maikel Franco. Kingery’s already received 57 defensive innings at third base, and although that’s only about six games’ worth of playing time, it comes out to nearly a third of the young season. At the time of the extension, the Kingery deal seemed to spell doom for fellow infielder Cesar Hernandez, but as he’s off to a roaring start with a .431 on-base percentage in 102 plate appearances, it looks like Franco (who has a career .300 OBP in over 1,700 career PA) could be the one whose job is in jeopardy over the long run.

While the overall depth and quality of the MLB roster looks much better than it did this time last year, it’ll also take quite a few positive developments to allow sustained contention. Talented young players such as Crawford, Williams, Alfaro, Kingery, Andrew Knapp, and Aaron Altherr have yet to fully establish themselves at the game’s highest level. Though all signs point to continued stardom for Rhys Hoskins, he’ll also need to adapt as pitchers focus on ways to retire him while working to improve his defense following a challenging shift to left field. Santana, Crawford, and Odubel Herrera — the team’s best-established position players — will need to play at or near their peak levels if the club’s hot start is to be carried all the way into September. And Kapler will have to perform a delicate balancing act in allocating playing time.

The pitching results have been quite promising early, but there’s also uncertainty there. Will Nola and Vince Velasquez stay healthy (and will Jerad Eickhoff return to full strength)? Can Nick Pivetta continue to tamp down on the free passes and sustain his promising start to the year? Will Arrieta continue to outperform his peripherals? And how will the depth hold up once it’s tested? And in the bullpen, which has endured absences from Hunter and Neshek early on, there’s plenty to like but also plenty of risk in a group of youthful arms. Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano have been awfully impressive thus far in 2018, but neither has yet proven capable of dominating over a full MLB campaign. Closer Hector Neris is getting the job done but not exactly dominating. And there has already been some turnover in the middle-relief unit. In the aggregate, the arrow points up in the pitching department, but it’s not hard to see where some cracks could form over the course of a long season.

Overview

The Phillies’ offseason moves helped put a more competitive team on the field, and the sun appears to be rising on their return to playoff contention. There’s still some fog about the dawn of the new era, though. Plenty of uncertainty surrounds any group of young prospects, and Arrieta and Santana alone as free agent acquisitions can’t guarantee contention.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason work? (Poll link for app users)

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