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Yankees Claim Diego Castillo, Designate Jeter Downs For Assignment

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The Yankees have claimed utility player Diego Castillo off of waivers from the Mets, the team announced. In a corresponding move, infielder Jeter Downs was designated for assignment.

Castillo, 26, returns to his original organization. The Yankees signed him as an international amateur out of Venezuela but flipped him to the Pirates alongside Hoy Park in the 2021 deadline deal that didn’t work out well for the Bucs. Both Castillo and Park were designated for assignment and traded to new clubs by the end of 2022, while Holmes has turned into the closer for the Yankees.

As for Castillo, he hit .206/.251/.382 in 96 games with the Bucs in 2022 then was traded to the Diamondbacks. The latter club mostly kept him in the minors, putting him into just one major league game. In 124 Triple-A contests, he only hit three home runs but walked more than he struck out, a 17.4% rate of free passes compared to 14.2% for the punchouts. His .313/.431/.410 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 117. He’s had other good Triple-A seasons in that vein, pairing minimal power with strong on-base abilities.

Defensively, Castillo has played all four infield positions and has spent some time in the outfield corners. He can also swipe a bag here and there, stealing 13 with the Reno last year. Despite that solid year with the Aces, he’s been on the transaction carousel this offseason, getting claimed off waivers by the Mets and now the Yankees.

The Yanks project to have an infield of Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and DJ LeMahieu. The guys on the corners are into their mid-30s now and coming off injury-marred seasons. Volpe had some mixed results but was only 22 and should get a chance to continue his development. Torres is solid at the keystone but is in his final year of club control before reaching free agency.  Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera,  and Jorbit Vivas are also on the 40-man but the club continues to focus on the depth. They recently signed Kevin Smith, Josh VanMeter and José Rojas to minor league deals and have now added Castillo into the mix. Since Castillo still has an option remaining, he can be kept in the minors as depth until his services as needed at the big league level.

They are also potentially losing one depth infielder in today’s transaction, with Downs no longer on the roster. The 25-year-old is perhaps best known for going from the Dodgers to the Red Sox as part of the return in the deal for Mookie Betts and David Price. Though he was once a top 100 prospect, he hasn’t lived up to that billing thus far. He struggled to establish himself with the Sox and has since gone to the Nationals and Yankees on waiver claims.

Between the Sox and the Nats, he’s only been put into 20 major league games, hitting .182/.260/.273 in those. His work in the minors hasn’t been much better, with a combined slash of .200/.309/.365 over the past three years.

The Yanks, who just claimed him last month, will now have a week to trade him or try to pass him through waivers. Despite the lack of offensive production, he may still garner interest from other clubs. He’s still quite young, has the former prospect pedigree and defensive versatility. He’s lined up at the three infield positions to the left of first base and a brief spell in the outfield. He also has one option year remaining, meaning he doesn’t need to be guaranteed an active roster spot.

Daniel Mengden, Kirk McCarty Sign With CPBL’s CTBC Brothers

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Pitchers Daniel Mengden and Kirk McCarty have signed with the CTBC Brothers of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, according to CPBL Stats. The CTBC Brothers have also re-signed pitcher José De Paula, who has been playing in Taiwan since the 2020 season (per CPBL Stats).

Mengden, 31 in February, played six seasons in the majors, with a brief stop-off in the KBO in between his fifth and sixth MLB campaigns. He was drafted by the Astros in 2014 but traded to the Athletics the following summer as part of the return package for Scott Kazmir. The righty made his debut in Oakland the year after that, and over the next five seasons, he appeared in 60 games (48 starts) for the A’s, tossing 302 2/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA.

After being designated for assignment and electing free agency, Mengden spent the 2021 season with the Kia Tigers in the KBO, making 21 starts with a 3.60 ERA. Most impressively, he threw 120 innings, more than he ever reached in a single season in MLB. He returned stateside in 2022, signing a minor league deal with the Royals and earning a couple of big league call-ups, tossing 109 innings at Triple-A Omaha and another seven with Kansas City. He then split the 2023 season between the Royals’ and Nationals’ organizations, although his 7.25 ERA kept him from earning another call to the show.

McCarty, 28, was drafted by Cleveland in 2017, where he slowly rose through the minor league ranks before making his MLB debut in 2022. He was DFA’d that summer and briefly picked up by the Orioles, but less than two weeks later he was DFA’d again (having pitched just one game for Baltimore’s Triple-A affiliate) and wound up back in Cleveland. Overall, he appeared in 13 games during his one and only big league season, tossing 37 2/3 innings and posting a 4.54 ERA and 4.57 SIERA.

While McCarty has far less MLB experience than Mengden, he’s coming off a strong season with the SSG Landers in Korea. He signed with the Landers in November 2022, shortly after he was released by the Guardians, and went on to make 24 starts in his lone KBO season, pitching to a 3.39 ERA over 130 frames. Presumably, Mengden and McCarty will both join the CTBC Brothers rotation in 2024.

Those two will be joining mainstay De Paula, who has led the team in innings pitched each of the the past four seasons. Soon to be 36, the southpaw first played affiliated ball for the Padres organization in 2007 and briefly appeared in the majors with the Yankees eight years later. However, he has more recently made a name for himself in foreign leagues; he spent two years playing in Mexico from 2018-19, and since 2020 has pitched for the CTBC Brothers in Taiwan. He was named the CPBL MVP in each of his first two seasons and has continued to succeed into his mid-thirties; in 2023, he made 27 starts with a 3.53 ERA.

Braves Sign Jordan Luplow To Minor League Deal

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The Braves signed outfielder Jordan Luplow to a minor league deal last Wednesday, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. Luplow, a client of ALIGND Sports Agency, signed with Atlanta last offseason, too, but was designated for assignment before playing a game on the big league squad. He split the rest of his season between the Blue Jays’ and Twins’ organizations.

Luplow began his career with the Pirates, who selected him in the third round of the 2014 draft. After two seasons with Pittsburgh in 2017 and ’18, the 30-year-old outfielder was traded three times in three years, first to the Guardians, then to the Rays, and finally to the Diamondbacks. His best performance came in 2019, his first year in Cleveland, when the righty batter hit 15 home runs in 85 games, slashing .276/.372/.551. Unfortunately, he struggled in the pandemic-shortened season, lost much of the following year to an ankle injury, and produced what was arguably the worst performance of his career the year after that. The veteran hit .176 with a .634 OPS across 83 games in 2022, and the D-backs DFA’d him in November.

Shortly thereafter, Luplow elected free agency and signed a one-year, $1.4 million contract with the Braves. However, he was cut five days into the season, having played just three games at Triple-A Gwinnett. The Blue Jays scooped him up off waivers but didn’t have much big league playing time to offer; Luplow played 48 games at Triple-A Buffalo and only 7 with Toronto. The Jays DFA’d Luplow after the trade deadline, and this time the Twins came calling. They had more opportunities for Luplow, getting him into 32 big league games over the final two months of the season, but left him off the postseason roster in October. Overall, he hit .208 with a .647 OPS in 39 MLB games last season, while slashing .237/.342/.418 across 54 contests in the minors.

Although his offensive numbers have been uninspiring for several years now, Luplow has always drawn walks at a high rate, and his career splits against left-handed pitching are rather impressive (33 home runs and an .833 OPS in 565 PA), even if his 2019 season is doing most of the heavy lifting in that department. What’s more, his strong arm and slightly above-average speed make him a capable option in an outfield corner.

Atlanta has one of the most talented rosters in the league, but there could be a spot for Luplow if he shines in Spring Training. Forrest Wall is currently penciled in as the fourth outfielder, but the long-time minor leaguer only has 15 MLB plate appearances under his belt. What’s more, the Braves currently have just 12 position players on their 40-man roster, and they’re surely planning to add more before Opening Day.

Reds Sign Tyler Gilbert To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed left-handed pitcher Tyler Gilbert to a minor league contract, the team announced. The deal comes with an invitation to major league Spring Training. The All Bases Covered client will be 30 years old in 2024.

Drafted by the Phillies in 2015, Gilbert was traded to the Dodgers ahead of the 2020 season and selected by the Diamondbacks the following winter in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He made his debut with Arizona in 2021 and is best known for throwing a no-hitter during his first MLB start and fourth big league appearance. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that impossibly high standard throughout the rest of his career. He has shuttled back and forth between the majors and Triple-A over the past three years, while also making a couple of trips to the injured list with trouble in his pitching elbow. Overall, he tossed 91 2/3 innings for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.32 ERA and 4.78 SIERA in 13 starts and 15 relief appearances.

The lefty spent most of his 2023 campaign pitching out of the bullpen, working as a primary reliever for the first time since his 2019 season in the Phillies organization. While he gave up 10 runs on 21 hits in 17 1/3 big league innings, his underlying numbers were much more promising. Gilbert, one of the slowest-throwing arms in the game in 2021 and ’22, threw all his pitches with an extra 2-4 mph. Opposing batters swung and missed more often at almost all of his offerings, and he nearly doubled his strikeout rate from 2022. Consequently, his 3.32 SIERA was a vast improvement over his 5.17 figure from the previous two seasons. Moreover, while his 11 MLB appearances make for a tiny sample, he boasted a near-identical strikeout rate in 74 2/3 innings at Triple-A.

The Reds have already added plenty of bullpen arms this winter, signing Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter, re-signing Buck Farmer, and scooping up Justin Bruihl and Brooks Kriske on minor league deals. They also added Nick Martinez to the rotation, although his experience as both a starter and reliever surely increased his appeal. Still, there is no such thing as too much bullpen depth. Nor is there such thing as too much starting pitching depth, for that matter, and given the fact that the injury-prone Frankie Montas is the only starter on the team with a full, qualified season under his belt, Gilbert’s experience as a starter surely increased his appeal, too.

Gilbert has one option year remaining.

MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?

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After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?

The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.

Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.

However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.

The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.

Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.

Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.

Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.

As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.

So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Red Sox Could Be Looking To Shed Additional Payroll

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The Red Sox made waves on Saturday afternoon, trading seven-time All-Star and 2018 World Series champion Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for young infielder Vaughn Grissom. Boston needed a second baseman, and Grissom can fill that role right away – and potentially for years to come. Still, as talented as Grissom very well may be, it’s hard not to view the trade as something of a salary dump for the Red Sox. Although Sale has spent significant time on the injured list over the past several years, he has flashed great stuff when healthy, and the Red Sox need all the upside they can get if they’re going to compete in the fearsome AL East. By trading the veteran starter to the Braves, along with $17MM in cash, the Red Sox reduced their total payroll commitments by $10.5MM and their luxury tax payroll by approximately $7MM for 2024 (per Roster Resource).

This is not the only trade chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made to decrease payroll this winter. He flipped Luis Urías to the Mariners just before the non-tender deadline, sacrificing the infielder’s upside to avoid his estimated $4.7MM arbitration salary. He also dealt Alex Verdugo to the Yankees and essentially replaced him with former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill, saving an estimated $3.7MM in the process. Those sound like relatively inconsequential numbers for a large-market team like Boston, but for what it’s worth, the money the team saved by trading Urías, Verdugo, and Sale adds up to just under $19MM; newly signed starter Lucas Giolito will earn $18MM in 2024.

Indeed, while the Red Sox typically run one of the higher payrolls in the sport, it seems they’ll be operating under a tighter budget this offseason. As reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, the team has informed at least one free agent that they have to “shed more payroll” before they can pursue him “as aggressively as they want to.”

The Red Sox have shed significantly more payroll than they’ve added this winter. In addition to their various trades, the team let Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, James Paxton, and Joely Rodríguez reach free agency; those five accounted for just over $34MM in luxury tax payroll last season. Boston’s estimated luxury tax payroll now sits below $200MM for the first time since 2020. That being the case, it’s rather surprising to hear that ownership is tightening the purse strings. After all, it wasn’t so long ago that chairman Tom Werner claimed the team would be competitive in 2024, vowing to go “full throttle in every possible way” (per Sean McAdam of MassLive.com).

Of course, this rumor may be little more than a negotiation tactic, with the Red Sox playing hard to get to drive down a free agent target’s price. However, if Breslow is serious about reducing payroll, he might look to deal Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin in the coming weeks. The veteran relievers are set to hit free agency following the 2024 season, and they’d surely draw plenty of interest on the trading block. Jansen, who is owed $16MM next year, made his fourth career All-Star team last season, while Martin, who is set to make $9.5MM, led qualified MLB relievers in ERA. Losing Jansen or Martin would be a tough blow for Boston’s bullpen, but at least one could argue the Red Sox would be selling high on either arm. Jansen will be 36 next season, and he’s no longer the dominant closer he once was. Meanwhile, Martin will be 37, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to maintain an ERA below 2.00.

Breslow could also dangle Nick Pivetta, who is set to earn approximately $6.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but then again, the team’s rotation looks thin enough as it is. Finally, the chief baseball officer would surely wish to be freed of the $95MM remaining on Trevor Story’s contract, but it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox could find a trade partner willing to take on the injury-prone shortstop.

It should also be said that it’s unclear which player Cotillo’s report refers to, as the Red Sox has been connected with no shortage of top free agents. The list includes frontline starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, high-end relievers Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, and slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández. All five of those free agents will be rewarded handsomely this winter, but needless to say, some will command a much higher salary than others. Perhaps the Red Sox would need to shed payroll before signing any of these players, but it’s possible they would only need to cut back to sign Snell or Montgomery to a nine-figure deal.

Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson

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Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.

One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.

Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.

Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.

Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).

In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.

With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.

Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.

Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.

However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.

Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”

To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.

The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.

So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.

Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.

Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Shohei Ohtani Notes: Advertising Revenue, 40-Man Roster Move

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The baseball world is still reeling from the news of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signing a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. Not only is it the largest contract in baseball history (by a mile), it is the most lucrative deal for any professional athlete, surpassing the four-year €555MM contract (approximately $674MM in USD) soccer star Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona in 2017. Given the unprecedented nature of the deal, it’s more than fair for fans to wonder if it makes financial sense. Is Ohtani genuinely worth nearly twice as much as Aaron Judge? Can a single player truly provide $70MM in value per year over the next ten years?

Moreover, various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations. Jon Heyman of the New York Post quotes a team source from one of the finalists, who claimed, “We certainly were not at 699 [million dollars].” Meanwhile, when asked if the Angels had made an offer close to that $700MM number, team president John Carpino simply responded, “No comment” (per Sarah Valenzuela of the L.A. Times).

However, it is critical to remember that Ohtani’s deal is not worth $700MM in present-day value, due to the deferred payments in the contract. As Jeff Passan of ESPN eloquently explained, “Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is.” Thus, the other finalists for Ohtani might not have offered him anywhere close to $700MM total, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers blew any other offer out of the water in terms of present-day value.

More to the point, while Ohtani’s contract might be unprecedented, so too is Ohtani an unprecedented player. The value he will bring to his new organization goes beyond his performance on the field, and the Dodgers could be in for a windfall if they know how to market their brand-new international superstar. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic quote an anonymous MLB evaluator who claims the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years… Even just on advertising alone.” That might be an exaggeration, but still, it’s clear how highly Ohtani is valued around the league.

As many sources have pointed out (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today), Ohtani earned approximately $40MM in endorsement deals last offseason. The MLB player with the next highest endorsement-related income was Mike Trout, who took home $5MM. If Ohtani can personally command so much money, the team he plays for should be able to cash in big as well.

According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels earned somewhere between $10MM and $20MM per year in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue.” Nightengale believes that number was even higher, claiming Ohtani “brought in $25 million a year.” Both reporters suggest the Dodgers could double that revenue, thanks to their higher level of popularity, both locally and across the globe. At the high end of that estimation, the Dodgers would earn back more than half of Ohtani’s annual salary, and the team is surely hoping he will continue to bring extra value to the franchise long after his ten-year deal is complete.

On that note, it’s worth acknowledging that although the Dodgers are regularly big spenders, their front office has demonstrated a keen ability to get the best bang for its buck. While some high-spending teams have crashed and burned in recent years, the Dodgers have made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, winning ten NL West division titles in that time. They have won over 100 games in four of the last five years, and the only year they didn’t, the shortened 2020 campaign, they went 43-17 (.717, a 116-win pace) en route to a World Series championship. This team spends in abundance, but they don’t spend frivolously. If the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $700MM, it’s because they think he’s worth even more, and they haven’t given us any reason to doubt their accounting so far.

In other Ohtani news, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times points out that the signing has not yet been made official. However, that doesn’t mean the deal is at risk of falling through. Ohtani himself has already confirmed the agreement, and it’s hard to imagine his physical would hold up the deal; the Dodgers already know he is recovering from his second UCL procedure and won’t pitch in 2024. Instead, Harris suggests that the Dodgers are still figuring out their corresponding 40-man roster move. The club’s roster is currently full, so they will need to make a trade or designate someone for assignment in order to finalize Ohtani’s contract. What’s more, they also need to free up a roster spot for veteran reliever Joe Kelly, whose one-year, $8MM contract has not been finalized either. Expect a trade or a roster move in the coming days.

Breslow: Red Sox Will Be “Aggressive” In Search For Rotation Upgrades

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New Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a tall task ahead of him, trying to bring a fifth-place club back into contention in a stacked AL East. Perhaps the hardest part of his job will be improving a starting rotation that finished with a bottom-ten ERA and FanGraphs WAR last season. Indeed, while the Red Sox have starting pitching depth, their rotation has too many question marks and not enough top-end talent.

Chris Sale is a lock for the 2024 rotation. So is 24-year-old Brayan Bello, who pitched to a 4.24 ERA in 28 starts last year. After that, the Red Sox have four more experienced arms who will stretch out to start this winter but could move into a bullpen role at any time: Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. All four have made at least ten starts and at least ten relief appearances over the past two years. With a rotation led by an aging, oft-injured veteran followed by a still-developing young starter and four guys who have bounced in and out of bullpen roles the past years, it’s clear the Red Sox could use a lot more stability and at least one front-line pitcher.

It’s not surprising to hear Breslow call rotation upgrades his top priority as the Red Sox navigate the offseason (links via Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com). Breslow expressed optimism about Sale’s health, at least publicly voicing confidence that the lefty could hold up over a full, healthy season in 2024. Of course, that’s quite a charitable outlook for a pitcher who’s totaled just 151 innings over the past four seasons.

Granted, 102 2/3 of those frames came in 2023, when Sale worked to a respectable 4.30 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.8%, respectively. But Sale still missed two months last summer with a shoulder injury, and in the three seasons prior he underwent Tommy John surgery, suffered a stress fracture in his ribcage, broke his wrist in bicycling accident and sustained a broken a pinkie finger on his pitching hand upon being struck by a comeback liner. The Sox don’t have much choice but to hope Sale is healthy this year — he’s entering the final season of his five-year, $145MM contract — but recent history is not on their side, regardless of whatever optimism the team’s brass wants to forecast.

Even if the Sox were able to somehow manifest a 32-start season from Sale, there’d be need to further solidify the group. For his part, Breslow pledged to be “as aggressive as we possibly can” to fill the rotation (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic), be it via free agency or trade. Boston has already been linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery and Seth Lugo in free agency. McCaffrey indicates that the Sox had an initial Zoom meeting with Yamamoto’s camp (as has been standard for interested teams thus far) but adds that a team official declined to state whether the Red Sox were in position for a forthcoming in-person sitdown with the NPB ace.

Breslow’s pledge to be as aggressive as possible is sensible for a team with a projected payroll ($172MM, per Roster Resource) that’s more than $10MM shy of their end-of-season levels and a whopping $64MM short of their franchise-record Opening Day mark of $236MM. That said, it’s also somewhat at odds with prior reporting on Boston’s rotation search. McAdam reported last month that the Sox have a preference for the trade market before free agency, notably specifying that at that point, they had not yet been active in the market for Dylan Cease.

The previously mentioned piece from McCaffrey quotes Breslow in acknowledging that the Sox will have to “be willing to give up position player capital” in order to bolster the starting staff, though McCaffrey notes that the Sox aren’t likely to trade top-end prospects for pitchers with only one year of club control remaining. That’ll make names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and division foe Tyler Glasnow particularly difficult to obtain. And just yesterday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Boston prefers to avoid free agents who’ve rejected a qualifying offer.

There’s room to be aggressive within a fairly measured set of free-agent and trade targets, but whether avoiding qualified free agents and one-year rentals is truly acting “as aggressive as we possibly can” is up for debate, at the very least. It’s understandable that Breslow, particularly in his first season on the job, might not want to recklessly spend and saddle the club with a long-term contract or deplete the farm system he’s still learning, but imposing those limitations on his front office only makes the goal of bettering the starting staff in a meaningful way all the more daunting.

Of course, the goal in the long term is to better the organization’s ability to develop its own pitchers. To that end, the Red Sox announced yesterday that they’ve hired Twins minor league pitching coordinator Justin Willard as their new director of pitching.

“We’re really excited to bring him on board,” Breslow said (relayed by Cotillo). “Someone that comes with a pretty strong track record of pitching development. We’ve been mindful of what Minnesota’s done over the last few years in the development of some of their guys. We feel really lucky, really fortunate.”

The Twins have had some success stories with late-round starters, as both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland have reached the Majors and held their own (a good bit more than that in the case of Ober, a 12th-rounder). The Twins’ bullpen has seen multiple names emerge from within the system as well, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax.

Willard will join newly hired pitching coach Andrew Bailey in working with Breslow and the rest of the Boston baseball ops and player development staff to hopefully optimize the Sox’ pitching development systems. While each of Bello, Houck and Crawford has had some big league success, they’re all still relatively inexperienced. The Red Sox have regularly relied on free agency and the trade market to round out the pitching staff over the past decade, but they’ve struggled to supplement those high-profile additions (e.g. Sale, Rick Porcello, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi) with cost-effective arms produced by their own system.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Draft Lottery, Fedde

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As the Winter Meetings carry on, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. The Winter Meetings continue

While plenty of updates and rumors came out of the Winter Meetings on Monday, we have still yet to see a major signing. However, with new reports that teams are interested in top-50 free agents Matt Chapman (Cubs), Jordan Hicks (Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, and Orioles), Seth Lugo (Braves, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox), and Jack Flaherty (Pirates), perhaps that’s about to change.

Wade Miley’s one-year, $8.5MM guarantee from the Brewers has been the largest free agent contract signed at the Winter Meetings so far, but that’s unlikely to remain the case for long.

2. The draft lottery is coming up

The MLB draft lottery will take place this afternoon at 4:30 pm CT as part of the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. All 18 teams that missed the postseason in 2023 will have a chance to win one of the top six selections in next year’s first-year player draft, although the teams with the three worst records – the Athletics, the Royals, and the Rockies – have the best odds of claiming one of the top picks.

Complete odds for the draft lottery can be found here.

3. Where will Erick Fedde land?

On Monday afternoon, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that former MLB pitcher and 2023 KBO MVP Erick Fedde was nearing a two-year deal with an unspecified MLB team. Later that day, Feinsand added that there were, in fact, two teams in the running for Fedde’s services – the Mets and the White Sox – and the 30-year-old righty was expected to finalize a contract with one of those two clubs as early as today.

Feinsand reports that the deal will be in the two-year, $10MM range, and if so, Fedde could surpass Wade Miley for the largest free agent guarantee of the Winter Meetings – although it’s hard to imagine he would hold that distinction for long.

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