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Dodgers Sign Hyeseong Kim

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With hours left to go before his posting window closes, Hyeseong Kim and the Dodgers signed a three-year contract worth $12.5MM. The deal includes a two-year club option (which would need to be exercised together) covering the 2028-29 seasons. If the Dodgers exercise the option, they’d pay an additional $9.5MM over those two years. Los Angeles designated catcher Diego Cartaya for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot. Kim is represented by CAA Sports.

Kim’s former team, the Kiwoom Heroes, officially posted him on December 5, giving him until 4:00 PM CT this afternoon to sign with an MLB club. As the days ticked by and the rumor mill remained relatively quiet, it seemed like a legitimate possibility that Kim would return for one more season with the Heroes. Instead, the Dodgers, who hadn’t been closely linked to Kim this winter, swooped in and made a winning offer in the nick of time. In addition to Kim’s salary, the Dodgers will have to pay a $2.5MM release fee to the Heroes (20% of the guaranteed $12.5MM on his deal). Their total investment is $15MM.

Kim, soon to be 26, is a four-time consecutive winner of the KBO Golden Glove Award, given annually to the best overall player at each position. He won the award at shortstop in 2021 before moving to second base and winning each year from 2022-24. In addition to playing a strong second base and at least a capable shortstop, Kim is also an asset on the basepaths. He led the KBO in stolen bases in 2021 and has swiped at least 20 bags in all seven full seasons of his career. His glove and legs should give him a relatively high floor as a utility player in MLB, if nothing more.

The big question is how Kim’s bat will hold up against MLB pitching. While he struggled at the plate early in his career, the lefty batter blossomed into a well-above-average hitter during his last three years in the KBO. From 2022-24, he produced a .326 batting average and a .384 OBP, while his wRC+ was never below 118 in any season. However, Kim has never hit for much power, even by the slightly lower power standards of the KBO. His 2024 season was the best of his career power-wise – he reached double-digit home runs for the first time – but his .132 isolated power was still below league average.  Thus, it’s fair to worry that Kim might not have the necessary power to be an everyday player in MLB. Just look at his former KBO teammate Ha-Seong Kim. Ha-Seong Kim was a genuine power threat in the KBO, socking 30 homers in 138 games during his final season in Korea. Since coming to MLB, he has become known as a soft-hitting contact specialist. His career .137 ISO in MLB is 15% worse than the league average over the last four years.

When MLBTR ranked Hyseong Kim at no. 26 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, we predicted he’d sign a three-year, $24MM contract. His actual deal guarantees him a little more than half of that predicted salary. That said, it’s worth mentioning that Kim reportedly turned down more money from at least one other team. A representative from Kim’s agency, CAA Baseball, told a Korean media outlet (passed along by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that the Angels offered him a five-year, $28MM deal, while the Mariners, Cubs, and Padres also made offers with undisclosed terms. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register contradicts that report. According to Fletcher, the Angels made an offer to Kim but did not top what he received from the Dodgers.

To that point, Kim might not have a guaranteed starting role in L.A. The Dodgers already have Gavin Lux to play second base, Mookie Betts at shortstop, and Max Muncy holding down the hot corner. Furthermore, they have the talented defensive shortstop Miguel Rojas and the versatile Chris Taylor on the bench. Center fielder Tommy Edman can also play all around the infield.

According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Kim will play a “super-utility role” in 2025. The use of the prefix “super” seems to imply that he’ll be playing several positions. While he has significant experience at both shortstop and second base, he has only played a handful of games at third base in his professional career. He also played 44 games in left field during the 2020 season, and it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers consider using him in the outfield at all. As a “super-utility” player, Kim will presumably have a bigger role than that of a typical bench bat, but with so much competition on the Dodgers’ talent-filled roster, he’ll have to earn his playing time.

The fact that the Dodgers signed Kim despite already having so many infielders is evidence of how much this team values depth and flexibility. It’s also a sign of how much they value what Kim can bring to the table. Funnily enough, manager Dave Roberts has already made his team’s affinity for Kim quite clear. After the Dodgers played an exhibition match against the Korean national team last March, Roberts told reporters (including Yoo), “Our scouts like the second baseman: just the way his body moves.” That second baseman, of course, was Kim.

Various reports out of South Korea were first with the news that Kim was signing with Los Angeles on a three-year deal with a two-year club option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $12.5MM guarantee and the $22MM maximum value.

Mets Notes: Manaea Contract Details, Alonso

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After previously reporting that Sean Manaea’s deal with the Mets would include $23.25MM in deferred payments, Will Sammon of The Athletic offered more details on the structure of Manaea’s contract this morning.

Manaea will earn equal $25MM salaries in all three years of the deal, adding up to the reported total guarantee of $75MM. However, $7.75MM of his salary will be deferred without interest each season, adding up to the reported total of $23.25MM in deferrals. As Sammon previously mentioned, the deferrals will be paid out in equal portions over 10 years from 2035-44. Sammon also notes that Manaea can earn standard additional incentives for making an All-Star appearance ($50K), winning a Gold Glove ($50K), winning LCS MVP ($50K), winning World Series MVP ($100K), and finishing top-three in Cy Young voting ($50K for first place, $25K for second place, $10K for third place).

The deferred payments mean that Manaea’s contract isn’t quite worth $75MM in present-day value. Therefore, the luxury tax hit for the Mets won’t be quite as high as his $25MM AAV. Jon Becker of FanGraphs suggests the present-day value of his AAV for luxury tax purposes is just over $22MM. That’s not entirely insignificant to the Mets, who will be paying the luxury tax once again in 2025. It’s also interesting that Manaea’s contract is about $1MM less valuable than the three-year, $67MM deal his former teammate Luis Severino signed with the Athletics. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that Manaea turned down that same offer from the A’s before they gave it to Severino instead. Of course, it’s not hard to understand why Manaea would rather pitch for the Mets than the A’s, but it’s interesting that he technically took a discount to re-sign with New York.

In another Mets update, Sammon theorizes that “contract length” is currently what’s holding up a deal between the Mets and Pete Alonso. Heyman recently made a similar suggestion, saying “I do think the years are the hang-up right now” (per Jon Heyman’s Insider Notebook on Bleacher Report). Back in December, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Mets were still “pushing hard” to reunite with Alonso. From Alonso’s perspective, it’s hard to picture a better fit than the only team he’s ever known. Yet, a deal hasn’t come together. A disagreement over contract length could certainly explain why.

Presumably, Alonso and his agent Scott Boras are still looking to beat the guaranteed money from the seven-year, $158MM extension he reportedly turned down from the Mets in the summer of 2023. To do so, he’d need to sign for at least $137.5MM this winter (he already earned the first $20.5MM in 2024 during his final year of arbitration). It’s hard to imagine Alonso approaching that number on anything shorter than a six-year contract. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to understand why teams would balk at offering a six-year contract to a 30-year-old first baseman coming off two consecutive down years.

Red Sox To Keep Ceddanne Rafaela In Center Field “As Much As Possible”

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The Red Sox made a big investment in Ceddanne Rafaela last season, extending the youngster on an eight-year, $50MM deal in April. At the time, he had just 38 MLB games under his belt. They weren’t the most successful 38 games, either. Rafaela had a .672 OPS and 76 wRC+ with an abysmal 6:37 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Despite his blistering speed, he only had four stolen bases to that point, and he had already been caught stealing twice. Yet, his elite defensive capabilities must have helped the Red Sox look past his struggles on the other side of the ball.

Rafaela was long praised for his outfield defense as a prospect, and he lived up to the hype in the majors. By the end of the 2024 season, he had racked up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a +7 Fielding Run Value in just 748.0 career innings as a center fielder. On the one hand, we have to be careful when looking at defensive metrics in such a small sample size. On the other hand, if Rafaela could keep those numbers up over a full season of work, he’d be one of the best fielders in the sport.

As if his performance in center field weren’t impressive enough, Rafaela has also appeared in 87 games at shortstop, 14 games at second base, and 4 games at third in his brief MLB tenure. He had plenty of infield experience in the minors. In fact, he began his pro career as a full-time infielder in 2018 and didn’t play the outfield until 2021. However, he took to center field so naturally that it soon became his primary position. By the time he made his MLB debut, it seemed safe to say he was a full-time center fielder.

But not so fast. As Trevor Story spent significant time on the IL in 2023 and ’24, the Red Sox needed help in the infield. Rafaela started five games at shortstop during his brief big league cup of coffee in 2023. The following year, the Red Sox temporarily named him their primary shortstop when Story went down with a shoulder injury in early April. He ended up playing more shortstop than any position and more shortstop than anyone else on Boston’s roster.

Rafaela’s versatility proved to be invaluable to the Red Sox in 2024. Unfortunately, it quickly became clear that he wasn’t more than a backup plan at short. His defense at the position was poor according to just about every available metric. Over 692.0 career innings at shortstop from 2023-24, Rafaela has made six fielding errors and four throwing errors. He has -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -8 Fielding Run Value. Once again, it’s important to take defensive metrics in a small sample size with a grain of salt. Still, it’s impossible not to notice the world of difference between Rafaela’s performance in center field and at shortstop.

With that in mind, it was hardly controversial when Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow told reporters (including Sean McAdam of MassLive) that the Red Sox plan to keep Rafaela in center field “as much as possible.” With Rafaela in center full-time, the Red Sox could play 2024 Gold Glove finalist Jarren Duran in left field and 2024 Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu in right, giving them, perhaps, the best defensive outfield in the sport. Yet, McAdam raises the question of what Boston will do once star prospect Roman Anthony is ready for the majors. That shouldn’t take long, considering Anthony put up a .982 OPS and a 162 wRC+ in 35 games at Triple-A last season. Neither Anthony nor Duran is quite as talented as Rafaela in center field, but both can play the position. More to the point, Rafaela has shown far less promise at the plate. Duran has an .832 OPS and a 126 wRC+ over the past two seasons, while Anthony has spent the last two years tearing up the minor leagues. Similarly, Abreu has a .794 OPS and a 117 wRC+ over 160 MLB games. No matter how strong Rafaela’s defense might be, his .664 OPS and 79 wRC+ in 180 career games pale in comparison to those numbers.

Despite a potential logjam in the outfield, Breslow made it clear that the Red Sox don’t want Rafaela playing the infield (per McAdam). That’s not exactly a shocking revelation. After all, Rafael Devers has third base on lock, and Story should be the full-time shortstop as long as he’s healthy. Boston doesn’t have a guaranteed starter at second base, but David Hamilton was a stronger offensive player and a better infield defender than Rafaela in 2024. Vaughn Grissom has yet to show that he’s ready for regular playing time, but he’s still young, and presumably, the Red Sox would like to give him a chance to prove himself after an injury-plagued 2024 campaign.

Ultimately, however, this isn’t really about the other options in the infield. Simply put, the Red Sox want Rafaela to focus on the position where he’s most valuable. Indeed, Breslow thinks that moving between the infield and the outfield might have hampered his performance in both spots: “I’m not sure we saw the best of him even defensively because of the fact that he was switching back and forth between center and shortstop.”

It’s hard to argue with Breslow’s logic. At the same time, it’s worth wondering what the Red Sox plan to do with Rafaela once Anthony demands a promotion. Similarly, it’s worth wondering what this means about Boston’s purported pursuit of a right-handed bat. Could a slightly crowded outfield picture prevent Breslow from adding the righty bat his lineup so badly needs?

The simplest answer is that Rafaela can take on a fourth outfielder role if/when he finds himself squeezed out of the starting lineup. He could also be the short side of a platoon with Abreu, who struggles against southpaws. In addition, it’s not as if Breslow completely closed the door on Rafaela returning to the infield. Perhaps if Story suffers another injury, Rafaela will be back on the dirt after all. A role like that might not be what the Red Sox had in mind when they signed him to a $50MM contract, but it’s not as if his $1.25MM salary for the 2025 season is an overpay for a Gold Glove-caliber bench player. Maybe Boston will eventually try to trade an outfielder, but there’s no reason to think they’re in a rush to get Rafaela – or Duran, Abreu, or Anthony – off their hands. Besides, Anthony isn’t even on the 40-man yet, and there’s plenty that could happen to affect Rafaela’s potential role between now and Opening Day.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Latest On Financial Dispute Between Nationals And Orioles, MASN

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The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is co-owned by the Orioles and Nationals, although the Orioles have a controlling stake. Since the network was established in 2005, the two clubs have regularly fought over how much money the Nationals should receive in rights fees each season. These disagreements have led to several court battles over the years.

Earlier this week, the Nationals filed a petition with the Supreme Court of New York, requesting that the court confirm a decision from MLB’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee. The committee found that the Orioles and MASN owe the Nationals approximately $320.5MM in TV rights fees to cover the 2022-26 seasons (per Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). That would mean around $203.9MM in backpay for the past three seasons ($72.8MM for 2022 and ’23 and $58.3MM for ’24) and another $58.3MM in 2025 and ’26. To put those numbers in context, RosterResource estimates the Nationals spent around $130MM on player payroll in 2024.

As Weyrich points out, a quick resolution to this petition would mean the two clubs will be in agreement on a deal that holds for multiple years to come for the first time since 2012. As for whether or not the two sides will be able to stay out of court in 2027 and beyond? That remains to be seen. Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein previously spoke about his desire to move these discussions “away from the lawyers” but stopped far short of making any promises. “I don’t have an easy answer yet,” he said. “If it was easy, it would have been resolved” (per Weyrich).

The Nationals have been active this offseason, trading for Nathaniel Lowe, signing Josh Bell and Michael Soroka, and re-signing Trevor Williams. However, they have not made the kind of big splash (or even medium splash) that some thought they’d make this winter. With a projected 2025 payroll that is still $22MM below last year’s final figure and the possibility of more financial certainty if this $320.5MM agreement is confirmed, perhaps the Nationals will continue adding this offseason to supplement a roster full of talented but unproven young players.

The Opener: Kim, White Sox, White

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As the first weekend of 2025 approaches, here are three things we will be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Hyeseong Kim’s deadline to sign is fast approaching:

We don’t mean to sound like a broken record, but there’s a good reason why Hyeseong Kim is back at the top of The Opener for a second day in a row. The KBO star was posted last month, and his negotiating window officially opened on December 5, giving him 30 days to sign a contract with an MLB team. He now has less than eight hours remaining before his posting window closes this afternoon at 4:00 PM CT.

MLBTR ranked Kim at no. 26 on our Top 50 Free Agents list this winter, predicting he’d sign a three-year, $24MM deal. However, his name hasn’t come up in many rumors or reports since he was posted. If Kim does not sign today, he will return to his KBO team, the Kiwoom Heroes, for the 2025 season. As Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News points out, Kim will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, which means he won’t need to be posted a second time if he wants to pursue an MLB career. That could improve his chances of inking a deal. Not only will he have more time to negotiate, but his new team won’t be forced to pay a release fee to sign him.

2. White Sox 40-man move incoming:

The White Sox have a full 40-man roster, which means they’ll need to make space for Josh Rojas before they can finalize his signing. The free agent infielder reportedly agreed to terms on a one-year contract with Chicago on Thursday, but the team has yet to confirm the news. Financial details of the deal are something else to keep an eye out for this weekend – as of today, they have not been reported.

Earlier this week, the White Sox traded for left-handed Tyler Gilbert and designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment to make room on the roster. Thus, their 40-man is currently quite pitching heavy, featuring 24 arms and just 16 position players. With that in mind, it seems more likely the White Sox will cut a pitcher to free up space for Rojas.

3. Owen White’s DFA resolution:

After signing free agent reliever Hoby Milner, the Rangers DFA’d former top prospect Owen White to make room on the 40-man roster. Since then, White has been waiting in limbo. Typically, teams have seven days to resolve a DFA, but that timeline can be extended during the period between Christmas and New Year’s Day. Now that the holiday season is over, however, the Rangers will have to trade White or place him on waivers, presumably before the end of the weekend.

Jeff Hoffman Reportedly Seeking Deal In Same Range As Clay Holmes’s

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While free agent starting pitchers have done quite well for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t exactly flying off the shelves. To that point, only two relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have signed so far, and both of them joined their new teams to be starting pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was particularly interesting to see Holmes sign as a starter. For one thing, he hasn’t started a game since his rookie season in 2018. What’s more, he has been one of the top relievers in the game over the past four seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 2.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.

Jeff Hoffman is one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 list. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ’pen, but he is reportedly drawing interest as a starting pitcher. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had received “more interest from teams” as a starter. That helps explain why Hoffman seems to have set his sights on a deal in the same range as the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.

It’s not hard to understand why Hoffman would compare himself to Holmes. They’re both right-handed relievers with closing experience, and they’re less than three months apart in age. Then again, while Holmes has a longer track record of success, most metrics suggest Hoffman has been the better pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway through the 2023 campaign. In particular, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in almost every single statistical category, including strikeout rate, walk rate, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all versions of WAR.

That’s precisely why MLBTR ranked Hoffman ahead of Holmes on our Top 50 list, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the former and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Considering that Holmes was able to beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one might have thought Hoffman would be seeking even more – perhaps something closer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.

However, Hoffman and his agents have now had a couple of months to gauge interest on the open market, and one wonders if he’s discovered that teams aren’t valuing him significantly more than they valued Holmes. After all, it doesn’t seem as if the Mets vastly outbid every other suitor for Holmes’s services. Mere hours before he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was still choosing between numerous offers and that he had been in negotiations with several contending teams. Maybe one of those suitors could pivot to Hoffman instead, especially if he’s seeking a similar deal.

The Phillies were one of those contending clubs. They are also the only team that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. Yet, after adding reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re almost certainly out on Hoffman.

Evidently, Hoffman has other suitors, but it’s not yet clear who they are. Other teams that were reportedly in on Holmes include the Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles were interested in Holmes as a starter, but they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, likely filling that hole. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, were interested in Holmes as a reliever, and they have since signed Yimi García. It’s harder to say if that would preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Red Sox, it’s unclear if they wanted Holmes as a starter or a reliever, but it’s worth noting that they have added three starters since they were linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and they already have two potential closers at the back of their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).

Royals Re-Sign Austin Cox To Minors Contract

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The Royals have signed Austin Cox to another minor league contract. After electing free agency in November, the left-hander will return to the only MLB organization he’s known throughout his seven-year pro career. The team announced the signing this afternoon.

Cox, who turns 28 on Opening Day, first signed with the Royals as a fifth-round draft pick in 2018. After an impressive debut in Rookie ball that year, Cox began to appear on Royals top prospect lists around the industry. His 3.78 ERA in nine starts was solid, but what really turned heads was his 35.7% strikeout rate.  In addition, he gave up just one home run in 33 1/3 innings of work.

The lefty followed up his strong first impression with an equally promising performance in 2019. Cox looked sharp at both Single-A and High-A, pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 3.48 FIP in 130 2/3 innings across both levels. His 24.2% strikeout rate wasn’t nearly as high as it was at Rookie ball, but it was still quite good, and it came over a much larger sample size against more difficult competition. On top of that, he reduced his walk rate and continued to limit home runs.  Entering the 2020 season, both FanGraphs and Baseball America included Cox among their top 10 prospects in the Royals system; Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him at no. 12.

Unfortunately, Cox was unable to pitch in 2020 due to the lost minor league season, and he struggled at Double-A and (briefly) Triple-A in 2021. His fastball velocity fell and he cut his slider from his pitch mix, giving him a less imposing and less diverse arsenal. His strikeout rate continued to drop while his walk rate rose, and he surrendered 11 home runs in just 68 frames; that’s the same number of dingers he allowed the year before when he pitched almost twice as many innings. Thus, it was hardly surprising to see Cox plummet down prospect rankings during the 2021-22 offseason. Once a promising back-end starter, he seemed destined for a role in the bullpen instead.

Cox continued to start at Triple-A in 2022 and ’23 but failed to improve his results. In May 2023, he made his MLB debut out of the Royals bullpen. Although he had limited experience as a reliever, his big league career couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. He didn’t give up a hit until the 40th batter he faced. Unfortunately, his work was less impressive after that. Cox would ultimately pitch in 24 games for Kansas City that year: 21 relief appearances and three short spot starts. His numbers were serviceable but unspectacular for a lower-leverage swingman. He pitched to a 6.10 ERA and 4.71 FIP in 10 1/3 innings as a starter and a 3.91 ERA and 3.33 FIP in 25 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. A knee injury ended his season early, and the Royals designated him for assignment at the beginning of the offseason. He subsequently elected free agency.

Cox rejoined the Royals on a minor league contract shortly thereafter and spent the entire 2024 campaign with the Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers. He exercised an opt-out clause in his contract in July but signed another minor league pact with the organization later that month. Thus, his new deal with the Royals is the third minor league contract he has signed with the team in the past 14 months. Presumably, he will continue to do exactly what he did in 2024: provide depth as a left-handed swingman at Triple-A. While his performance this past year didn’t prove good enough to earn him another chance with the big league club, there is clearly a strong relationship between pitcher and team that both sides are interested in carrying on.

Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams

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The Nationals officially announced the re-signing of Trevor Williams to a two-year free agent deal. It’s reportedly a $14MM guarantee for the John Boggs & Associates client. The veteran right-hander turns 33 next April.

The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington. Despite an uneven performance over the past two seasons, he showed enough upside to convince the club to bring him back on an almost identical deal. In 2023, the righty was an innings eater for the Nationals, providing them with 144 1/3 frames in 30 starts. It was the first time he passed the 100-inning threshold since 2019. However, there was little else to like about his performance. No NL pitcher (min. 140 IP) had a higher ERA than Williams that year. He also finished among the bottom five in strikeout rate, SIERA, and xERA. Things turned especially sour at the end of the year; he gave up 33 runs (32 earned) in 35 2/3 innings over his final eight starts.

The 2024 season was a completely different story. Williams got off to a red-hot start, pitching to a 2.22 ERA across 11 outings in April and May. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do the one thing he did well in 2023: stay on the field. A flexor muscle strain in his pitching arm kept him out for nearly four months from May to September. He continued to see great results in two starts upon his return (10 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), but he finished the year with just 13 starts and 66 2/3 innings under his belt.

Most of the underlying data indicates Williams wasn’t quite as dominant as he seemed on the surface. His .267 BABIP and 4.2% home run-to-fly ball ratios were well below his career averages, while his 80.2% left-on-base percentage was well above his typical rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate marked a significant improvement from the year before, but it was only a touch above league average for a starting pitcher. Thus, his 3.96 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.03 ERA.

Regardless, Williams was still a productive starter when he was on the field, even if the peripheral numbers suggest he was more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace. If he can figure out how to combine the best parts of his 2023 and ’24 seasons, he will be well worth a $7MM annual salary over the next two seasons. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that. Williams has reached 30 starts just twice in his nine-year MLB tenure, and he came into the 2024 season with a career 4.48 ERA and 4.66 SIERA. He is also entering his mid-thirties. In theory, his excellent command should help him thrive as an older starter. Then again, he could be in real trouble if he loses any more velocity on his four-seam fastball. It was a valuable pitch in 2024, but at 88.9 mph, it’s already one of the slowest heaters in the league.

Williams will return to a Nationals rotation that also features de facto ace MacKenzie Gore, free agent acquisition (and project) Michael Soroka, and a handful of mid-to-back-end types who broke out for Washington last year: Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. Top prospect Cade Cavalli will also factor into the equation, although Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post notes that the team will be monitoring Cavalli’s innings in 2025 and could option him to Triple-A to begin the year. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign. It’s unclear how manager Dave Martinez will set up his rotation to begin the season, but barring an injury or a disastrous performance this spring, it feels safe to presume that Williams be one of the starting five (or six?) come Opening Day.

Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Athletic first reported the Nationals were re-signing Williams on a two-year, $14MM deal.

Yankees Sign Paul Goldschmidt

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The Yankees officially announced the signing of Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $12.5MM.

Nightengale describes the Yankees’ pursuit of Goldschmidt this week as aggressive, though he notes they were also in talks with Christian Walker before he signed with the Astros. Carlos Santana was another first baseman New York reportedly considered. The Yankees had also been linked to Pete Alonso earlier in the offseason, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they were “increasingly likely” to opt for a less expensive first base signing.

Indeed, Goldschmidt’s $12.5MM salary is well below the three-year, $60MM guarantee Walker received from Houston and the five-year, $125MM deal MLBTR predicted for Alonso. It’s also below the one-year, $15MM pact we predicted for Goldschmidt when we ranked him at no. 35 on our Top 50 Free Agents list.

Goldschmidt, 37, was a free agent for the first time in his career. Drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2009, he made his big league debut with Arizona in 2011. After a strong start to his MLB career, he signed an extension with the D-backs that kept him under team control through the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cardinals in 2019, he signed another extension that ran through 2024. Through those years with Arizona and St. Louis, Goldschmidt was one of the best players in baseball. He made seven All-Star teams, won five Silver Sluggers, and earned NL MVP honors in 2022. Over 1928 career games, he has slashed .289/.381/.510 with 362 home runs and a 139 wRC+.

Since his MVP season in 2022, Goldschmidt has taken a few steps back. His .810 OPS and 122 wRC+ in 2023 were more good than great, while his .716 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 2024 were merely league average. That’s not an encouraging trend for a first baseman entering his late thirties. However, Goldschmidt’s underlying numbers in 2024 offer a little more promise. His .308 batting average on balls in play was well below his career average of .343. Similarly, his .310 wOBA was noticeably worse than his .329 xwOBA. A .329 wOBA still would have been the worst of his career, but it also would have been significantly better than league average. Finally, Goldschmidt’s second-half performance was vastly superior to his first-half effort. Through the All-Star break, he was slashing .230/.291/.373 with an 87 wRC+. From the break onward, he hit .271/.319/.480 with a 120 wRC+.

The Yankees are surely hoping Goldschmidt looks like his second-half self throughout the 2025 season. However, even his mediocre full-season numbers would be a big upgrade over what the Yankees got from their first basemen in 2024. Yankees first basemen ranked last in MLB in OPS (.619), second-to-last in wRC+ (76), and 26th in FanGraphs WAR (-1.1). If Goldschmidt can simply repeat his 2024 campaign, the Yankees would get a big boost over the combination of Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, and DJ LeMahieu. That will be especially true against left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt slashed .295/.366/.473 with a 134 wRC+ against lefties this past season. Meanwhile, New York’s offense was significantly worse against lefties than righties. Goldschmidt should be a big help in that department.

On the defensive side, Goldschmidt, a four-time Gold Glove winner, will undoubtedly play first base for the Yankees. That will push recent trade acquisition Cody Bellinger into the outfield. It always seemed likely that Bellinger would play the outfield in New York, but manager Aaron Boone suggested earlier this week that first base was still an option. It’s safe to say that option is now off the table.

If the Yankees are still looking to add another bat, third base could be the next avenue they turn to for improvement. Jazz Chisholm Jr. took over at the hot corner after the trade deadline in 2024, but second base is his natural position. By sliding back to second, he could give the Yankees more flexibility to seek an upgrade in the infield. Some intriguing options at third base include free agent Alex Bregman and trade candidate Nolan Arenado. The Yankees have already expressed interest in both players.

Adding either Bregman or Arenado would likely push the team’s payroll above last year’s final estimate of $303MM (per RosterResource). It would also put them above the highest tier of the luxury tax once again. Although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees run such a high payroll in 2025, it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Steinbrenner’s have their spending limits. Chairman Hal Steinbrenner said earlier this year that the team’s current payroll is “simply not sustainable for us financially.” The fact that the Yankees were outbid for Juan Soto and that they were seeking a less expensive first baseman like Goldschmidt further suggests that GM Brian Cashman is working under payroll constraints. Those constraints could impact how the team operates for the rest of the offseason.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the Yankees and Goldschmidt had agreed to a one-year deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first on the salary.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Cubs Among Teams Interested In Josh Rojas

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According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, free agent Josh Rojas is drawing interest from multiple teams. The Cubs are one such club, and Feinsand characterizes their attraction to the veteran utility man as “serious.”

Rojas, who turns 31 next June, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Mariners earlier this offseason. His bat was middling at best in 2024, but he did steal 10 bases and draw walks at a well-above-average clip. More importantly, he graded out as a strong infield defender according to several metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA). As a result, he finished with 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs and 2.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference. If he could simply repeat that performance in 2025, he would have been well worth his projected $4.3MM salary. Yet, the Mariners decided to move on.

Although Rojas played the vast majority of his games at the hot corner in 2024, he is also a capable defensive second baseman. On top of that, he can cover most other positions in a pinch. He has played shortstop, both outfield corners, and (briefly) first base at times throughout his six-year MLB career.

The Cubs are stocked with Gold Glove winners at second base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. However, they don’t currently have anyone locked in at third base. Top prospect Matt Shaw seems like the most logical choice to replace Isaac Paredes on the far left side of the infield, but Shaw has no big league experience and only 35 games at Triple-A under his belt. To that point, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently said Shaw will have a chance to earn the third base job, but it’s not his just yet. Recent trade acquisition Vidal Bruján can also play third base, but given his complete lack of MLB success over the past four years, Bruján should be nothing more than a utility player for the bench. Finally, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is a terrific defender at third base, but like Shaw, he has no major league experience – and unlike Shaw, there are serious questions about how his bat will hold up against MLB pitching.

With all that in mind, Rojas seems like a perfect fit for the Cubs. He could take over as Chicago’s starting third baseman to begin the season, batting at the bottom of the lineup and supplementing what is already one of the best defensive alignments in the league. However, he wouldn’t block Shaw if the youngster proves himself ready for everyday playing time at the big league level. Instead, he would slide into the utility job on the bench, offering a significant upgrade over Bruján.

Financially speaking, the Cubs should have no trouble paying whatever price Rojas is seeking. Presumably, he’ll end up signing a one-year contract with a seven-figure guarantee. After offloading most of Cody Bellinger’s salary earlier this month, Chicago is approximately $50MM below the first luxury tax threshold and $54MM below last year’s final payroll (per RosterResource). If the Cubs don’t land Rojas, other free agents who could address the same need at a similar price point include Jose Iglesias and Paul DeJong.

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