Click here to read the transcript of the Thanksgiving edition of the live baseball chat
Padres Interviewed Adrian Gonzalez During Managerial Search
Former Padres star Adrian Gonzalez was interviewed as part of the team’s recent managerial search, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and MLB Network’s David Vassegh. Gonzalez made it deep into the process, with Vassegh describing him as one of three finalists for the job, along with bench coach and eventual hire Mike Shildt.
Among the known candidates, Shildt and Phil Nevin had managed at the MLB level before, while Flaherty, Carlos Mendoza (hired by the Mets as their manager) and Benji Gil had experience on Major League coaching staffs. Gonzalez was an outlier in comparison, as he doesn’t have any experience as a manager or coach in the big leagues or even in the minors. While most of San Diego’s candidates were former players, the 41-year-old Gonzalez brought perhaps a different perspective as not only a player, but as an established superstar during his 15-year MLB career.
This might be the first managerial search in baseball history to ever include two former first overall draft picks, between Nevin (selected first overall in 1992) and Gonzalez (in 2000). Gonzalez lived up to that lofty potential by hitting .287/.358/.485 with 317 homers over his 8046 career plate appearances. His resume included five All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, three finishes within the top seven of MVP voting, and just recently became eligible for the Cooperstown ballot since it has been five full seasons since his last Major League game. While Gonzalez isn’t likely to receive induction to the Hall of Fame, just making the ballot is a notable recognition of an outstanding career.
This first-hand knowledge of what it takes to be a top-tier Major Leaguer might’ve had some appeal to the Padres, given the number of high-profile stars on the roster. Given past rumblings about tumult within the San Diego clubhouse, the Padres might’ve seen Gonzalez as an interesting candidate as perhaps something of both a boss and a peer for San Diego’s players, given that Gonzalez’s playing career only recently wrapped. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller also has a long history with Gonzalez, as the first baseman broke into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2004 just when Preller had been hired to join the Texas front office.
It makes for an interesting what-if within the Padres’ managerial hunt, and it remains to be seen if Gonzalez might seek out further coaching or managerial opportunities in the future, whether with the Padres or another organization. This job had obvious specific appeal to Gonzalez because he was born in San Diego and because he played with the Padres from 2006-10.
With Shildt now hired, attention will turn to the coaching staff. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that pitching coach Ruben Niebla and bullpen coach Ben Fritz are likely to remain, though Fritz interviewed for the Angels’ pitching coach job that eventually went to Barry Enright. The third base coach and associate manager’s position are both open after the departures of Matt Williams and Ryan Christenson, and it might be interesting to see how whether the “associate manager” role remains at all, or if it was somewhat unique to the division of duties between Christenson and Flaherty.
Shildt has been working for the Padres for the last two years, so it isn’t as if he is an entirely new skipper coming in and wanting to install his own staff. That said, Lin isn’t sure if Flaherty (who is both the bench coach and offensive coordinator) could be back after coming up shy in the managerial search. This uncertainty might also extend to first base coach David Macias, who Lin describes as close with Flaherty and possibly also a candidate to leave if Flaherty isn’t back in 2024. Lin also notes that Shildt isn’t expected to make any coaching hires from the Cardinals, his longtime former team before his arrival in San Diego.
Yankees Showing Interest In Jordan Montgomery
The Yankees seem to be considering a reunion with former rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. The club has been “looking at” Montgomery as a possible offseason signing, and it appears to be slightly more than just due diligence, as Heyman writes that “the Yankees have been particular about rotation targets.” Previous reports have linked such arms as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frankie Montas, Yariel Rodriguez, and (before he re-signed with the Phillies) Aaron Nola to the Yankees’ pitching wishlist, and it’s probably safe to assume the Bronx Bombers have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani even though he won’t be able to pitch in 2024.
Obviously Montgomery is a known quantity for the Yankees, having started his pro career in the pinstripes after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014. Debuting in the majors in 2017, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA, 22.68% strikeout rate, and 6.93% walk rate over his 502 2/3 innings with New York, establishing himself as a solid and even underrated member of the starting five.
Despite this success, the left-hander was dealt to the Cardinals at the 2022 trade deadline in a move that since become infamous in the Bronx. Harrison Bader came from St. Louis in the one-for-one-swap, and apart from a spectacular power surge during the Yankees’ 2022 playoff run, Bader’s time in New York was a disappointment. The outfielder played in only 98 regular season games due to injuries, and hit .237/.274/.353 over 359 plate appearances before the Yankees put him on waivers this past August.
Meanwhile, Montgomery’s star (and free agent price tag) only continued to rise. He pitched well for St. Louis during the rest of the 2022 season and into 2023, though the Cardinals’ own struggles saw Montgomery again on the move at the deadline, this time to the Rangers. From there, Montgomery became one of the key factors of the Rangers’ World Series run — he posted a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 innings in the regular season just to help Texas get into the playoffs, and the lefty then had a 2.90 ERA over 31 postseason frames.
MLBTR ranked Montgomery sixth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a six-year, $150MM contract. Nola received the same projection and landed a seven-year, $172MM deal from Philadelphia, so it is quite possible Montgomery might also beat our prediction even though he is six months older and has a past Tommy John surgery on his record. However, Montgomery wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade, so a team that signs him wouldn’t have to surrender any draft picks or international pool money as compensation.
This is undoubtedly of interest to a Yankees team that surpassed the luxury tax last year, and thus would pay the higher penalty of two picks and $1MM of int’l bonus money for signing any qualified free agent. New York’s interest in such players as Nola, Ohtani, or Cody Bellinger indicates that the Bombers are open to signing QO-rejecting free agents, though it’s fair to speculate that the Yankees might be willing to take the plunge for only one such player. For instance, Bellinger might be a bit of a priority since hitting is a greater need for the Yankees, but they could then also look one of many non-QO pitchers, including top-tier names like Yamamoto or Montgomery.
It is fair to speculate whether or not the past history with Montgomery and the Yankees is an obstacle in any negotiations. Naturally GM Brian Cashman would love to have a do-over of the Bader trade, and since his concerns over Montgomery’s viability as a postseason starter have now been firmly proven wrong, what better public mea culpa than a $150MM contract? Montgomery might see it as water under the bridge and be willing to return to complete some unfinished business in the Bronx. On the other hand, it seems possible that Montgomery simply wants to move on from an organization that once considered him expendable, and would prefer to join either a new team altogether or one of his other former clubs in Texas or St. Louis.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes
November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.
November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.
It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander. Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.
Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings. With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace. Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.
Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system. Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America. Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.
The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself. The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark. Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.
The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities. It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.
Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market. Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors. With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left. Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.
Blue Jays “Open To” Alek Manoah Trade Offers
After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Alek Manoah had a disastrous 2023 season, posting a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings while suffering a significant loss of control. Manoah’s hellish year included a month-long stint in the Florida Complex League to try and solve his sudden mechanical issues, as well as a later option to Triple-A Buffalo in August that didn’t result in any actual pitching appearances with the Bisons.
With all this in mind, it perhaps isn’t surprising that rival executives have told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “the Blue Jays are open to moving” Manoah in a trade, and teams have made calls in general asking about Toronto’s rotation depth. Of course, teams are often willing to listen on virtually any player, so it isn’t clear if Toronto is merely doing its due diligence in not dismissing offers for Manoah, or if the Jays are actively shopping Manoah in some regard.
It’s difficult to call Manoah a true trade candidate given the still somewhat mysterious nature of his down year. Some type of injury seemed to be a factor, as Jays GM Ross Atkins said in October that Manoah received a PRP injection to treat some shoulder discomfort. Manoah also went through some medical testing during his stint in Buffalo, but there were also reports of some hard feelings between Manoah and the team, perhaps regarding how the minor league option might’ve cost Manoah enough service time to claim Super Two status.
Only the Jays and Manoah himself have an idea of his status heading into 2024, or if even that might still be unclear until Manoah gets some offseason or Spring Training work under his belt. Obviously no team is going to pay a big price for Manoah without having more understanding of what exactly is plaguing the 25-year-old right-hander, so that alone limits Toronto’s leverage in any trade discussions.
By that same token, if Manoah just needs to get healthy, it is possible he could enjoy a swift return to form. Should such a bounce-back happen, the Blue Jays obviously want to benefit, rather than selling low on Manoah and then watching him rebound on another club. That said, “selling low” is still better than selling for nothing, and another mediocre season might ruin Manoah’s trade value entirely. Manoah’s rough season is just one season, and rival teams might feel they have an answer to Manoah’s mechanical problems, or that a trade itself might get Manoah on track if there is indeed bad blood between the righty and Jays management.
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently speculated that the Blue Jays and Cardinals might line up on a Manoah trade, perhaps involving such past Jays trade targets as Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan. With Carlson and Tyler O’Neill both struggling for the last two seasons after some early success in their MLB careers, the Cards and Jays could theoretically explore moving two “sell low” candidates for each other, hoping that mutual change of scenery would benefit all parties. St. Louis is one of many teams looking for pitching this winter, and with the Jays having a wide array of holes to fill in the lineup, several clubs could be fits if Manoah was indeed available.
The other question about a Manoah trade is how it would impact Toronto’s rotation. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are set as the top four, with Manoah being the favorite for the fifth spot though Atkins made no guarantees. If teams are asking about the Blue Jays’ pitchers in general, any of Bowden Francis, Mitch White, Wes Parsons, or even Kikuchi could be available at the right price. Such a deal involving another pitcher would imply that Toronto is confident Manoah can bounce back, or that the Jays are perhaps exploring acquiring another pitcher for more stability at the back end of the pitching staff.
Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching
Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.” Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances. Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.
That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.
Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason. Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A. Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.
This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.
In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training. 2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship. The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
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Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease
The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.
While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs. Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.
Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons. Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.
Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season. Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation. Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers. Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.
Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation. However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching. Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now. Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.
Braves Interested In Sonny Gray
The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services. The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.
Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade. Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist
As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost $14MM shaved from the budget. The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.
It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart. Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024. Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.
Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office. Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal). Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.
However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation. While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular. Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.
Padres Sign Mason McCoy To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed shortstop Mason McCoy to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (via X). The deal contains an invitation for McCoy to attend San Diego’s big league Spring Training camp.
The Blue Jays outrighted McCoy off their 40-man roster in late September, and he became a minor league free agent after the season. Originally a sixth-round pick for the Orioles in the 2017 draft, McCoy is changing teams for the third time in his career, after previous playing with the Mariners and Jays. Seattle dealt McCoy to Toronto in July in exchange for Trent Thornton, and McCoy ended up making his MLB debut, making six appearances as a late-game sub with one plate appearance.
McCoy has hit .257/.330/.393 over 2796 career PA in the minor leagues. Twenty-one of his 51 career homers in the minors came with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, though he was unable to keep that surprising power surge going, and the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League might have played a role in McCoy’s sudden extra pop. McCoy is more of a threat on the basepaths, stealing 90 bases in 106 tries in the minors.
Most of McCoy’s playing time has been at shortstop, though he has seen a lot of work as a second baseman and some action at third base and in left field. With Manny Machado set to miss some time at the start of the year while recovering from elbow surgery, the Padres in need of extra infield depth, so McCoy might have a decent chance to win himself a backup job in Spring Training.
