Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Cubs Outright Shane Greene

By | at

After clearing waivers, Shane Greene has been outrighted to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, as per the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Chicago designated Greene for assignment on Wednesday, and it isn’t yet known if he’ll accept the outright or (as is his right for a player with his amount of MLB service time) opt for free agency.

Greene has chosen free agency over past outright assignments, though the equation could be a little different this time since he already had an extended stint on the open market before signing a minor league deal with the Cubs in late June.  Given the late date on the calendar, Greene might prefer to stay in a familiar organization and bide his time for another call-up rather than roll the dice on landing with another team before the 2023 is over.

The Cubs selected Greene’s contract on September 1, and he threw one inning of scoreless ball in one appearance in the Show before being DFA’ed.  While just a cup of coffee on the active roster, it still means that Greene has now appeared in each of the last 10 Major League seasons, even if his 2022 participation also came in limited fashion (two games and six total innings with the Dodgers and Yankees).

The 34-year-old Greene is best known for his time as the Tigers’ closer, highlighted by a 2019 All-Star appearance.  After posting a 3.25 ERA over 221 1/3 relief innings from 2017-20 with Detroit and Atlanta, Greene hasn’t been the same since another lengthy stay in free agency.  Hitting the market during the 2020-21 offseason, Greene ended up not finding another big league deal until May 2021, re-signing with the Braves.  The righty has just 21 2/3 MLB innings under his belt since, with a 6.83 ERA.

Greene’s time with Triple-A Iowa consisted of five starts, which is notable since he hadn’t started a game at any level since 2016.  This could have been the Cubs’ way of rebuilding Greene’s arm strength since he didn’t have the benefit of a Spring Training, or it could be Greene’s way of trying to reinvent himself as something of a swingman rather than as a full-time reliever.  With a 2.21 ERA in 20 1/3 innings in Iowa, the results were intriguing enough that the experiment will probably continue if Greene remains in the organization, or this (albeit limited) success could also factor into Greene’s decision to potentially look to a new team.

Angels Place Max Stassi On Restricted List

By | at

2:22PM: It isn’t yet known if the Angels have ducked under the tax line, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register notes that putting Stassi on the restricted list will save the team roughly $300K off the tax bill (due to how the luxury tax figure is calculated by average annual value, not by pure dollars).  It might not be revealed until after the season whether or not the Angels have gotten under the tax threshold.

1:31PM: The Angels announced that catcher Max Stassi has been placed on the team’s restricted list (retroactive to September 2).  Stassi hasn’t played at all this season due to both a hip strain that required a 60-day IL placement, and a personal situation involving his family.

That latter reason has led to the restricted list placement, since as per the club’s announcement, Stassi “informed the Angels that while he is in a position to resume activities to return to MLB, he has voluntarily chosen not to do so for the remainder of the 2023 season as a result of a serious family medical issue.  Out of respect for Max and his family, the Angels will not have any further comment.  The Angels wish Max and his family all the best.”

A veteran of 10 Major League seasons with the Astros and Angels, Stassi was dealt to Los Angeles at the 2019 trade deadline and hit quite well in part-time catching action for the Angels in 2020-21.  That prompted the Halos to sign him to a three-year, $14.5MM contract extension that runs through the 2024 season with a club option (worth $7.5MM with a $500K buyout) for 2025.  Unfortunately, Stassi then struggled through the 2022 campaign, and entered this past Spring Training competing for playing time with Logan O’Hoppe and Matt Thaiss.

Stassi’s hip injury removed him from the catching picture, and it appears as though he has been healthy for some time, but has instead been spending time with his family.  We at MLBTR express our support for Stassi and his family during this difficult period.

When on a Major League restricted list, players can’t amass any big league service time or salary.  As a result, the Angels won’t have to pay the $1.16MM still owed to Stassi over the course of the 2023 campaign, which has some bigger-picture implications for the team.  The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) writes that with Stassi’s remaining salary off the books, the Angels will be able to duck under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.

This desire to avoid a tax payment was part of the reason for the Angels’ recent flurry of waiver wire placements, as Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez were all claimed away from the team prior to September 1.  However, because Randal Grichuk wasn’t claimed, the Halos remained slightly above the $233MM tax line, but today’s move with Stassi has now apparently cleared the last financial hurdle.

The Angels hadn’t been tax payors since 2004, but were prepared to surpass the threshold this season in a push to contend in what might be Shohei Ohtani’s final season in Anaheim.  The Halos were aggressive in adding to their roster last winter and during the season, including a busy trade deadline push that saw them land Giolito, Lopez, Leone, Grichuk, C.J. Cron in three separate trades.  However, Los Angeles’ 8-19 record in August and Ohtani’s UCL injury led the club to effectively throw in the towel, and put six players on the waiver wire in the hopes of recouping some money to at least avoid any tax penalty.

In staying under the $233MM threshold, the Angels will avoid the (fairly minimal) tax payment itself, but will gain bigger rewards in terms of free agent compensation rules.  The Halos will be able to sign qualifying offer-rejecting free agents without having to pay a bigger penalty in terms of draft picks, while L.A. will receive a compensatory pick prior to the third round of the draft for any free agents (i.e Ohtani) who might reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Had the Angels been tax payors, that compensatory pick would’ve fallen beyond the fourth round.

Outright Assignments: Haase, Barlow, Lopez, Johnson

By and | at

Catching up on some players being outrighted off their teams’ 40-man roster, with all info coming from MLB.com’s official transactions page unless credited otherwise…

Latest Moves

  • The Guardians assigned catcher Eric Haase to Triple-A this evening, three days after he was designated for assignment. The 30-year old backstop was drafted by Cleveland back in 2011 and eventually made his major league debut with the club in 2018. He was shipped to Detroit in a cash deal in January 2020 and spent the next several years as the club’s primary catcher, slashing .229/.280/.400 in his 301 games with the Tigers. Detroit designated him for assignment back in August to make room for the signing of Carson Kelly and he was promptly claimed off waivers by the Guardians, reuniting him with his first big league organization. In this most recent stint with Cleveland, Haase made it into just three games, going 2-for-10 with a walk and three strikeouts before being DFA’d for the second time that month. As a player who’s been outrighted in the past, Haase has the right to reject the outright assignment if he so chooses, though he would not be eligible for the postseason upon signing with a new club and could simply elect free agency this offseason if not added back to the 40-man roster.

Earlier Today

  • The Royals outrighted Joe Barlow to Triple-A after clearing waivers, two days after the right-hander was designated for assignment.  Barlow has a 4.66 ERA over 13 games and 9 2/3 innings with the Rangers this season, as he has spent most of 2023 pitching at the Triple-A level.  Kansas City claimed Barlow off waivers in early August but he didn’t receive and big league action for K.C., instead just pitching at Triple-A Omaha.  Barlow posted a 2.81 ERA and 24 saves over 64 innings for the Rangers in 2021-22, even if his secondary metrics hinted that some regression was coming.
  • The Reds outrighted infielder Alejo Lopez to Triple-A.  Lopez was designated for assignment earlier this week when Cincinnati added Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader to the roster.  Because Lopez has previously been outrighted in his career (back in February), he has the option of rejecting the outright assignment and becoming a free agent, though there isn’t yet any word about his decision.  The 27-year-old Lopez was a 27th-round pick for the Reds in 2015 and he has spent his entire career with the organization, including 73 games and 159 plate appearances at the big league level in 2021-22.  Cincinnati selected Lopez’s contract again this week but he didn’t see any more game action before being DFA’ed.  Lopez has hit .262/.307/.321 in the majors but he has shown an ability to get on base during his minor league career, even if his power numbers are lacking.  Playing primarily around the infield during his career, Lopez has added to his versatility by getting more corner outfield action over the last couple of seasons.
  • The Giants outrighted outfielder Bryce Johnson to Triple-A.  Like Lopez, Johnson was also a recent DFA, and he also has the option of free agency since he has been outrighted in the past.  Johnson made his Major League debut in 2022, and has hit .148/.209/.213 over 67 PA while appearing in 41 games for San Francisco in the last two seasons.  Known as a strong defender who can play all three outfield positions, Johnson also has plus speed, though his impressive stolen base totals from the minors (157 steals in 199 chances) haven’t yet translated into the small sample size of his big league career.  His overall offensive game has yet to really show up in the big leagues, as Johnson has a .287/.370/.431 slash line over 988 PA at the Triple-A level.

Nationals Sign Rico Garcia To Two-Year Minor League Deal

By | at

The Nationals have signed right-hander Rico Garcia to a minor league contract that runs through the 2024 season, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (via X).  Garcia was became a free agent yesterday after being released by Washington, but he’ll now quickly rejoin the Nats.

Biceps tendinitis has kept Garcia from pitching at either the major or minor league level since July 28, and that same injury probably resulted in Garcia’s brief foray in the free agent market.  Injured players can only be placed on release waivers rather than outright waivers, but it seems quite possible that there might have been a handshake deal in place for Garcia to re-sign with D.C. once the transactional red tape was cleared.

The two-year nature of the contract also seems to hint that Garcia might need more time to recover from his injury, though details are scarce on his health status.  Reports from early August indicated that Garcia was starting some rehab work at the Nationals’ spring camp, but Garcia had yet to appear in any rehab games.

The 29-year-old Garcia has appeared in four of the last five MLB seasons, suiting up for five different teams.  The A’s designated Garcia for assignment in July but he rejected the outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency, and he then landed with the Nationals on a minors deal.  Garcia has a 9.26 ERA over 11 2/3 combined innings with Oakland and Washington this season, and a 7.32 ERA over his 35 2/3 career frames of big league work.

Tommy John surgery wiped out all of Garcia’s 2021 season, but he returned as essentially a full-time relief pitcher, and he has posted some good numbers at the Triple-A level over the last two years.  His 2.93 ERA over 27 2/3 Triple-A innings this season was marred by some uncharacteristic control problems, but Garcia posted a 29.51% strikeout rate.

Astros Claim Bennett Sousa Off Waivers

By | at

The Astros have claimed left-hander Bennett Sousa off of Detroit’s waiver wire, according to the Tigers.  The Astros announced that infielder Rylan Bannon was designated for assignment to create roster space on Houston’s 40-man.  Right-hander Blair Calvo was also outrighted to the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate after clearing waivers.

Sousa has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land, where he’ll provide some depth should the Astros need some left-handed help in their bullpen.  Framber Valdez is the only left-hander on Houston’s MLB roster, and Sousa joins fellow Sugar Land Space Cowboys Parker Mushinski and Matt Gage as the only other left-handed options on the 40-man.

The 28-year-old Sousa is changing teams for the second time in a week, as Detroit only claimed him off waivers from the Brewers on August 29.  Sousa’s brief Tigers tenure didn’t result in any Major League or minor league action with the organization, as the Tigers designated him for assignment just on September 1.

A tenth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2018 draft, Sousa made his MLB debut with Chicago in 2022 before joining the Reds on a waiver claim back in February.  The Brewers then acquired Sousa in April, leading to two appearances for Sousa in a Milwaukee uniform.  Altogether, Sousa has appeared in 27 MLB games and thrown 23 innings during his career, posting an even 9.00 ERA.  Over 193 1/3 innings in the minors, Sousa has a 2.98 ERA to go along with some good strikeout rates and grounder rates, though control has increasingly become an issue as Sousa has worked his way up the minor league ladder.

Bannon made his Major League debut last season, and has already suited up for three different teams (Orioles, Braves, Astros) over his seven career games in the Show.  Perhaps best known as one of the five players acquired by the O’s from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, Bannon was involved in a flurry of waiver claims over the last five months of 2022, going from the Orioles to the Dodgers to the Braves to the Cubs and finally to the Astros in December.

His 21 career PA in the majors have only yielded two hits, but Bannon has posted some decent numbers in the minors, including a .228/.339/.420 slash line over 1191 PA at the Triple-A level.  Between his bat and his ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bannon is claimed again on waivers from a team looking for some infield depth.

Guardians Activate Josh Naylor From 10-Day Injured List

By | at

The Guardians announced that Josh Naylor has been activated from the 10-day injured list, with outfielder Oscar Gonzalez headed to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Naylor will return to Cleveland’s lineup after missing over a month due to a strained oblique.

Naylor was initially projected to miss between three to six weeks, so he’ll get back to action roughly halfway through that estimated recovery timetable.  While missing Naylor for any amount of time was a blow to the Guardians, the club will at least get their second-best hitter back for most of September, and Naylor fortunately avoided any kind of lingering oblique issue that might’ve threatened his season entirely.

With a .306/.346/.500 slash line and 15 homers over 390 plate appearances this season, Naylor has joined Jose Ramirez as essentially the only premium bats within a lackluster Guardians lineup.  The timing of Naylor’s injury seemed to almost close the door on the Guards’ chances of contending, as the team had already moved Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario, and Josh Bell in advance of the trade deadline.

However, while Cleveland is only 13-16 since the start of August, they remain five games behind the Twins for first place in the AL Central.  Naylor’s impending return might have inspired the Guardians’ decision to be aggressive during the recent flurry of pre-September 1 waiver placements, as the Guards bolstered their pitching ranks by claiming Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore from the Angels.  It remains to be seen if these new arms and Naylor’s bat might be enough to get Cleveland past Minnesota, but even with a 66-70 record, the Guardians aren’t quitting on the 2023 campaign.

Twins Place Michael A. Taylor On 10-Day IL, Activate Willi Castro

By | at

The Twins placed outfielder Michael A. Taylor on the 10-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain.  Minnesota also announced that utilityman Willi Castro was activated from his own 10-day IL stint to take Taylor’s spot on the active roster.

Acquired from the Royals in an offseason trade, Taylor has been Minnesota’s primary center fielder this season, helping fill the void up the middle since Byron Buxton’s knee issues have limited him to DH duty.  Taylor has delivered his customary excellent defense and also provided the Twins with some unexpected power, as the outfielder has hit a career-best 20 home runs.  While Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash line over 354 plate appearances still translates to a slightly below-average 99 wRC+, that still represents Taylor’s best number since his 104 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2017.  Between the glovework, the power, and 13 steals in 14 chances, Taylor has generated 1.9 fWAR, making him a nice under-the-radar contributor to the Twins’ lineup.

Unfortunately, he’ll now miss at least the 10 days healing up a balky hamstring that has been a nagging issue for most of the week.  Losing Taylor is a setback for a Twins club that is still trying to put away the Guardians in the AL Central race, and Minnesota can only hope that Taylor won’t miss much beyond the 10-day minimum.

Castro has seen the second-most innings of any Twins player in center field this season, so the utilityman is likely to be joined by Andrew Stevenson, Jordan Luplow, and Joey Gallo in filling in on the grass while Taylor is out.  Castro hasn’t played since August 11 due to a left oblique strain, but he’ll now return to give Minnesota a versatile depth option all over the diamond.  Left field, third base, and center field have been Castro’s primary positions this year, but he has also seen some time as a second baseman, shortstop, and right fielder.  At the plate, Castro is hitting .241/.322/.371 over 315 PA.

In other Twins outfield news, Buxton continues to recover from a hamstring strain of his own, though he has still been battling patella tendinitis in his bothersome right knee.  Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Buxton’s knee soreness isn’t unexpected, especially since Buxton had recently played center field during his minor league rehab assignment.  This represented Buxton’s first time playing in the field in over a year.

Rockies Place Daniel Bard On 15-Day IL, Activate Chase Anderson

By | at

The Rockies announced that right-hander Daniel Bard was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 2) due to fatigue in his throwing forearm.  Bard’s spot on the active roster will be taken by Chase Anderson, who was activated from the 15-day IL and will start today’s game against the Blue Jays.

There isn’t yet any word on whether Bard’s forearm issue is serious or simply precautionary, though the “fatigue” wording seems to indicate the latter.  Nevertheless, given that it’s already September and that the Rockies are out of contention, it is quite possible the team might shut Bard down for the remainder of the season.

It has been a difficult year on and off the field for Bard, as he missed the first few weeks of the season due to anxiety issues.  While he was thankfully able to return to the mound, his numbers took a big dropoff from his excellent 2022 performance.  Bard has a 4.70 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and a whopping 20.8% walk rate over 46 innings this year, with that walk rate standing out as the highest in baseball for any hurler with at least 40 innings pitched.

As of July 25, Bard still had a 2.02 ERA, but a 13.94 ERA over his next 10 1/3 innings threw his season-long numbers into disarray.  This includes seven earned runs over his last two outings, which could be explained by the forearm problem.

Anderson hasn’t pitched since July 22 due to shoulder inflammation, and the veteran righty will now get back on the mound to try and salvage a strong finish to an underwhelming season.  One of many Colorado pitchers to struggle in 2023, Anderson has a 6.63 ERA over 55 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers from the Rays in May.

Orioles Make Four Roster Moves

By | at

The Orioles announced four roster moves prior to today’s game with the Diamondbacks.  Newly-claimed reliever Jorge Lopez has been officially activated, and right-hander Austin Voth was designated for assignment to create room for Lopez on the 40-man roster.  Baltimore also optioned Colton Cowser to Triple-A, as outfielder Aaron Hicks was activated from the 10-day injured list.

Voth has a 5.19 ERA over 34 2/3 relief innings this season, with a middling 21.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.  His season was interrupted by a stint on the 60-day injured list, as elbow discomfort sidelined Voth from the middle of June to less than two weeks ago.  In two appearances since his activation, Voth tossed two scoreless innings against the Rockies on August 27 but was then tagged for three runs over 1 2/3 frames against the White Sox on August 30.

Between the injury and the inflated ERA, it has been a tough season overall for Voth, who seemed to have turned a corner after the Orioles picked him up from the Nationals on a waiver claim in June 2022.  Voth had been inconsistent at best over five seasons as a starter and reliever in Washington, but then delivered a 3.04 ERA over 83 innings for the O’s last season, starting 17 of 22 games.

It is possible a pitching-needy team might put in a claim on Voth, as experienced arms are harder to come by at this point in the season, even if Voth’s 2023 numbers haven’t been up to par.  If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment and elect free agency since he has over three years of service time. But since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. The O’s signed Voth to an arbitration-avoiding $1.85MM salary for 2023 and the deal contains a $2.45MM club option for 2024 that looks likely to be declined.  If Voth isn’t in the Orioles’ plans for 2024 anyway, Baltimore might choose to release him if he clears waivers, though keeping Voth as extra depth at Triple-A is also a logical move for a team in pennant contention.

Hicks return after missing a little more than two weeks due to a lower back strain.  Speaking of career revivals in Baltimore, Hicks has hit .261/.355/.440 in 155 plate appearances since signing with the O’s in late May — a big improvement over the underwhelming numbers Hicks posted in his final three seasons with the Yankees.  Unfortunately, the injury bug has followed Hicks to his new team, as he has played in just one game since July 24 due to both his back problem and an earlier hamstring injury that also necessitated an IL trip.

Hicks will step back into the Orioles’ outfield/DH mix, and Cowser will head back to Triple-A to await his next taste of the majors.  One of the Orioles’ top prospects and the fifth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Cowser has been crushing minor league pitching but has only a .433 OPS over his first 77 PA at the MLB level.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season

By | at

The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket.  However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.

Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense.  Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position.  Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.

“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag.  When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.

It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette.  While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.

And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate.  Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA.  In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck.  No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time.  Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.

Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.

Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA.  While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023.  For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.

While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground.  Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span.  Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.

Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year.  He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power.  The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.

As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons.  It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July.  Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre.  Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season.  Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.

The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters.  Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production.  And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.

Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense.  Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons.  The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.

Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him.  Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block.  He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.

The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet.  However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.

A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs.  But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top