Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Blue Jays To Issue Qualifying Offers To Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray; Steven Matz Will Not Receive QO

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2021 at 6:51pm CDT

As expected, the Blue Jays will issue qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). The Jays opted against issuing the QO to Steven Matz, however, and Heyman adds that Matz also recently turned down a multi-year contract offer from Toronto.

There was no doubt Semien and Ray would receive qualifying offers, as two of the top members of the 2021-22 free agent class. Semien and Ray will also surely reject the qualifying offer (a one-year, $18.4MM deal) and look to land pricey longer-term contracts on the open market. Toronto has interest in re-signing both players, but if Semien and/or Ray sign elsewhere after turning down the QO, the Jays will now receive compensatory draft picks.

Matz was an interesting borderline QO case, and the Blue Jays front office was reportedly weighing the idea of extending the offer to the left-hander. Unlike the other two Toronto free agents, Matz might have been a candidate to accept, even though he has posted very solid numbers in three of his last four seasons (excepting an injury-plagued down year in 2020). Matz doesn’t quite have the established track record to ensure that he would be a lock for a big multi-year contract on the open market, and thus might have preferred to take that one-year, $18.4MM guarantee now and then test free agency again next year.

However, it seems the Blue Jays might have felt $18.4MM was too much to spend for one season of Matz, even if the Jays are expected to spend more in payroll next year. This doesn’t mean a reunion between Matz and the Jays isn’t possible, except Toronto will now have to compete with other suitors to lock down Matz’s services. With free agency officially opening on Monday, Matz is surely interested in hearing from those other suitors, so it isn’t surprising that he rejected the Jays’ last-minute contract offer.

Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2021 at 6:11pm CDT

The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard. The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.

It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.

Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York. The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.

If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday. With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume). Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.

New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out. Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.

Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season. A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.

Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck. Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.

It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter. However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season. It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.

Yency Almonte Elects Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2021 at 6:09pm CDT

Yency Almonte has opted to become a free agent, the right-hander announced himself via Twitter. The Rockies outrighted Almonte off their 40-man roster back on October 21, but Almonte had enough minor league service time to decide whether or not to decline the assignment and enter into free agency.

Originally joining the Rockies in the Tommy Kahnle trade with the White Sox in November 2015, Almonte has pitched in the last four MLB seasons, with inconsistent results. When Almonte has been able to keep the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, he has been good, as evidenced by his solid results in 2017 and 2019. When he hasn’t been able to keep the grounders coming, Almonte has been prone to allowing home runs, thus resulting in a 5.56 ERA in 2019 and a 7.55 ERA last season. The righty’s walk totals also spiked upwards this year, adding to Almonte’s struggles.

Overall, the 27-year-old Almonte has a 5.30 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate over his 124 career innings in the majors. Getting away from the thin air of Denver could be a boon, as Almonte has pretty pronounced home/away splits — a 6.46 ERA in 71 innings at Coors Field, and a 3.74 ERA in road games.

Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2021 at 5:12pm CDT

When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM. While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.

This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve. The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.

However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market. Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range. It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.

In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal. There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.

However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself. The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa. Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players. A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.

Braves Announce Several Roster Moves

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2021 at 3:11pm CDT

The Braves announced a series of roster transactions, including the news that Josh Tomlin’s 2022 club option has been declined. Left-hander Grant Dayton has been released, and outfielder Terrance Gore has been outrighted to Triple-A. Joining the 40-man roster are outfielder Travis Demeritte and right-hander Alan Rangel, whose contracts were selected from Triple-A. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka were also reinstated from the 60-day injured list as procedural moves.

Tomlin has spent the last three years with Atlanta, signing a pair of minor league contracts for the 2019 and 2020 seasons and then inking a one-year Major League deal last winter that paid him $1.25MM in guaranteed salary. That money took the form of a $1MM salary for the season and then a $250K buyout of the team’s $1.25MM club option for the 2022 campaign. The Braves therefore had a $1MM decision to make on Tomlin, and opted to not bring Tomlin back after a rough season for the 37-year-old.

Tomlin posted a 6.57 ERA over 49 1/3 relief innings last year, and was the victim of some bad luck — an ungainly .358 BABIP and a .346 xwOBA was well below his .377 wOBA. That said, even his xwOBA was only in the 15th percentile of all pitchers, and Tomlin allowed more than his usual amount of hard contact. With a very low strikeout rate and whiff rate, this lack of missed bats caught up to Tomlin in a big way. On the plus side, Tomlin still delivered his usual excellent walk rate and spin rates on both his fastball and his curve.

Though a neck strain sidelined Tomlin for much of September, he likely wouldn’t have made the Braves’ postseason roster anyway. The declined option doesn’t necessarily spell the end of his tenure with the club, as Atlanta could look to retain Tomlin via another minor league deal and see if the veteran has anything left in the tank during Spring Training.

Dayton has also been with Atlanta over the last three seasons, and was projected to earn $1.2MM this winter in his final year of arbitration eligibility. The release allows the southpaw to get an early jump on a new job in free agency, rather than wait a few more weeks until the non-tender deadline (and the Braves also free up a roster spot in advance of the 40-man deadline on November 19).

Dayton pitched only 13 innings in 2021, as a shoulder injury kept him on the injured list for much of the last four months of the season. Injuries have plagued Dayton for the last four years, as he missed all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and he missed a big piece of the 2019 season due to a fractured toe. The southpaw was pretty effective when he was able to pitch in 2019-20, though this year had a 6.23 ERA over his 13 frames.

Gore was signed to a minor league deal last winter and didn’t see any action for the Braves during the regular season, but was on the team’s roster for both the NLDS and the World Series. Gore appeared in one game during the playoffs, pinch-running and being left stranded at first base in the Braves’ 3-0 win over the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS. If he wishes, the 30-year-old Gore can decline the outright assignment and look for another contract elsewhere, and contenders might be interested in signing Gore for karma purposes alone. The veteran pinch-running specialist has been a part of the last two World Series championship teams, and has three Series rings in total over his career, despite appearing in only 102 regular-season games from 2014-20.

Orioles Announce Series Of Outrights

By Mark Polishuk | November 5, 2021 at 5:24pm CDT

NOVEMBER 5: The O’s formally announced the outrights of Severino, Diplan and Greene on Friday evening. Additionally, Baltimore announced that right-handers Chris Ellis and Spenser Watkins and catcher Nick Ciuffo have cleared waivers. Ellis has already elected minor league free agency, and Watkins and Ciuffo will also have that right.

Ellis made six starts for the O’s after being claimed off waivers from the Rays. He worked to a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 innings but did so with underwhelming peripherals after struggling in Triple-A. Watkins posted an 8.07 ERA over 54 2/3 frames during his first major league action. Ciuffo appeared in just two big league games at the very tail end of the season.

NOVEMBER 3: The Orioles have outrighted catcher Pedro Severino and right-handers Marcos Diplan and Conner Greene to Triple-A Norfolk. According to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, all three players will elect free agency rather than accept the outright assignment.

Severino is the most experienced name of the trio, with parts of seven MLB seasons under his belt (the last three in Baltimore). Severino was projected to earn $3.1MM in arbitration this winter, but was seen as a non-tender candidate following a season that saw him hit .248/.303/.383 with 11 home runs over 419 plate appearances.

The 28-year-old shouldn’t have much trouble catching on somewhere as a platoon partner or backup catcher. As for the Orioles, Nick Ciuffo is the only catcher in the organization with Major League experience, but the O’s are expected to add another low-cost veteran backstop this winter, and star prospect Adley Rutschman is expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022.

Diplan made his Major League debut in 2021, with a 4.50 ERA over 30 innings out of the Orioles bullpen. A veteran of seven minor league seasons with the Orioles, Twins, Brewers, and Rangers, 2021 was Diplan’s first season as a full-time reliever, though he had gotten an increasingly large share of bullpen work by 2019. He showed some solid improvements to his strikeout and walk rates with Norfolk this season and even pitched in the Futures Game during All-Star week.

Greene also got his first taste of MLB action this year, posting a 7.11 ERA over 25 1/3 combined innings with the Orioles and Dodgers. Beginning the season with the O’s, Greene was claimed on waivers by Los Angeles and then claimed back by Baltimore, all within the span of less than three weeks in August. Greene has a live fastball, but he has yet to translate that heater into big strikeout numbers or even consistent results in the minors, with a 4.34 ERA over 729 2/3 career innings on the farm.

Buster Posey Announces Retirement

By Mark Polishuk | November 4, 2021 at 5:38pm CDT

After 12 Major League seasons, Buster Posey has called it a career. Alongside his wife Kristen, the longtime Giants catcher announced his retirement in a press conference Thursday afternoon.

Going into the offseason, the only question surrounding Posey seemed to be whether the Giants would simply exercise their $22MM club option on the catcher for next season, or if the two sides would work out a longer-term extension. Posey hit .304/.390/.499 with 18 home runs in 454 plate appearances in 2021, rebounding to prime form after opting out of the 2020 season, and struggling through a 2019 season in the aftermath of hip surgery.

Instead, Posey will now hang up his cleats, ending an outstanding run as a Bay Area icon. Drafted with the fifth overall pick of the 2008 draft, Posey made his big league debut in 2009 and then won Rookie Of The Year honors in 2010, helping lead the Giants to their first World Series title since 1954.

That was the first of three championship rings for Posey, as he became the face of this era of Giants baseball. Posey’s long list of achievements includes the 2012 NL MVP Award, seven All-Star selections, four Silver Slugger Awards, and a Gold Glove in 2016. He retires with 158 home runs and a career slash line of .302/.372/.460 over 5607 plate appearances, and is likely heading for a Hall Of Fame induction in five years’ time.

While Posey’s outstanding 2021 leaves the impression that he has plenty left in the tank, it shouldn’t be ignored that at this time last year, a retirement following the 2021 campaign seemed quite plausible, or even likely. The hip surgery was the latest in a series of notable injuries for Posey throughout his career, including leg and ankle injuries suffered in a collision with Scott Cousins in 2011 (the impetus for MLB changing its rules about baserunners can make contact with catchers while trying to score). Most troubling, Posey also suffered multiple concussions over the course of his 12 years, and there was long speculation that the Giants would eventually move him over to a semi-permanent first base role.

Posey is only 34 years old, but with all of his accumulated wear-and-tear, it could be that he simply preferred to leave on the high note of a great personal season and the Giants’ 107-win campaign. Posey and his wife are also the parents of four children, including adopted twin girls born prematurely last summer (which Posey said factored into his decision to opt out of the 2020 season). There is certainly nothing left to prove for Posey, and he can now enjoy a well-deserved retirement and more time with his family.

While Posey’s role in Giants history can’t truly be replaced, the team hopes it already has a worthy heir apparent in Joey Bart, the second overall pick of the 2018 draft. Posey’s return to form created some questions about how exactly San Francisco would juggle playing time behind the plate, yet now the catching situation looks like it will consist of Bart and incumbent veteran Curt Casali. The Giants could quite possibly target another veteran to compete with Casali in Spring Training and provide more backing in case Bart (who has played in only 35 Major League games) needs more time to get acclimated.

San Francisco also now has at least $22MM in extra payroll space next season, not that the team didn’t already have plenty of spending capacity. The Giants’ surprising 107-win year has left the team well ahead of schedule in their rebuild, and the focus will squarely be on contending for a World Series title in 2022. While truly big expenditures haven’t been part of the strategy thus far for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, he will have every avenue open to him this winter, whether it be major free agent signings, big-ticket trade acquisitions, re-signing notable in-house free agents like Brandon Belt, or all of the above.

Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic first reported Posey’s decision to retire.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL East Notes: Anthopoulos, Mets, Afterman, Nationals, Bones

By Mark Polishuk | November 3, 2021 at 10:55pm CDT

Alex Anthopoulos couldn’t celebrate the Braves’ World Series triumph with the rest of the organization last night, as the president of baseball operations had to watch from home after testing positive for COVID-19 on Saturday. The diagnosis left Anthopoulos “surprised,” as he told Scott Miller of The New York Times, but fortunately, “I’m fully vaxxed, I don’t have any symptoms, I feel great….My family is fine.” To avoid any distractions for the team, Anthopoulos told only manager Brian Snitker and team chairman Terry McGuirk about his diagnosis.

As unusual as the situation was, Anthopoulos got to celebrate with his wife and children, adding to the special moment. The Braves have reached the postseason in each of Anthopoulos’ four seasons at the helm of the front office, and the 44-year-old has now captured his first championship after 10 total years as a general manager (counting his six years with the Blue Jays from 2010-15).

GM Nick Krall: Reds “Must Align Our Payroll To Our Resources”

By Mark Polishuk | November 3, 2021 at 9:55pm CDT

Less than 16 hours after the last out of the World Series, the Reds and Tigers got a quick start to their offseason by swinging a trade that sent catcher Tucker Barnhart to Detroit for infield prospect Nick Quintana. It was “a very difficult decision” for Reds GM Nick Krall, yet Barnhart’s $7.5MM club option for 2022 proved to be a major factor in determining the end of Barnhart’s long tenure in Cincinnati.

“Having been drafted and developed by the Reds, our entire organization has a connection to [Barnhart], and our fans love him,” Krall told reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer. “But going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”

These words surely won’t be welcomed by Reds fans, and yet Krall’s statement merely vocalizes what has been pretty apparent for the last year-plus — the Reds are cutting back on their spending. Last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias and non-tender of Archie Bradley were the early signs that the Reds’ payroll increases in 2018 and 2019 hit their peak with the 2020 season, as the team made the postseason but quickly bowed out in the wild card round.

There was some baseball logic to the Barnhart trade, however, as the Reds do have a ready-made catching replacement in Tyler Stephenson, who has hit well in 422 MLB plate appearances and looks deserving of a larger role. With a quality younger (and cheaper) player waiting in the wings, retaining Barnhart may have been less crucial than committing his $7.5MM to other roster needs. “I think it’s something that this move did not make sense from where we were with payroll. We had to make sure we made the adjustment,” Krall said.

This doesn’t mean that the Reds will be going into fire sale mode, the GM noted. “It’s going to be more of a wait-and-see, but I don’t think we’re not going to sign players on the free-agent market,” Krall said. What isn’t yet clear is just what Cincinnati’s payroll will look like in 2022. As per Roster Resource, the Reds have just under $128MM on the books for next season, a notable step down from the record $149MM they were prepared to spend in 2020 before the pandemic led to prorated salaries.

It doesn’t seem as though the Reds will spend much beyond that $128MM mark, which is a concern given the number of areas that have to be addressed. Standing pat isn’t really an option for team with this many needs, and it could be that the Reds might try to unload another of their current higher-priced players in order to either free up more money, or perhaps to take on another pricier player that better fits what Cincinnati needs on the roster.

Diamondbacks To Exercise Option On Merrill Kelly, Decline Option On Kole Calhoun

By Mark Polishuk | November 3, 2021 at 8:25pm CDT

Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen provided details on two of the team’s three option decisions, as Hazen told The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that the D’Backs will exercise their $5.25MM club option on righty Merrill Kelly and decline their $9MM club option on outfielder Kole Calhoun. The fate of Tyler Clippard’s $3.5MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) is still undecided, Hazen said.

There wasn’t much suspense in either decision, as Kelly had a pretty solid year in his return from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Kelly posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings, delivering his usual quality walk rate to help offset a lot of hard contact and a below-average strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks are hoping Kelly can match or better this performance in 2022 as the team looks for more stability in the rotation.

Next season will be the final year of Arizona’s control over Kelly, as per the two-year, $5.5MM contract with two club options that he signed back in December 2018. With this final option year now exercised, the deal will work out to a four-year, $14.5MM pact.

Calhoun signed a two-year, $16MM free agent to join his hometown D’Backs during the 2019-20 offseason, and hit .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs over 228 plate appearances in the shortened 2020 season. That solid performance was followed up by an injury-plagued 2021, as Calhoun underwent a knee surgery in Spring Training and then a left hamstring surgery less than two months later. His rehab from that second procedure was extended by a setback, and Calhoun also spent another month on the IL with a strain in that same left hamstring late in the year.

All told, Calhoun appeared in only 51 games and hit .235/.297/.373 over 182 PA. Calhoun might have been a trade chip had he been healthy, either back in July at the trade deadline or perhaps this winter, if he’d hit well enough for the Diamondbacks to exercise that club option. Instead, the D’Backs will buy out that $9MM option for $2MM and Calhoun will hit the market in advance of his age-34 season.

A return to Arizona could be unlikely, as while Hazen praised Calhoun for being “awesome for us in and out of the clubhouse,” the D’Backs already have quite a few left-handed outfield options. Calhoun hit both left-handed and right-handed pitching pretty evenly for a lot of his career, but over the last three seasons has developed more traditional splits. It seems likely that Calhoun will catch on with another team in need of some veteran pop from the left side of the plate, and Calhoun’s right field glovework has remained pretty good, even amidst all his leg injuries in 2021.

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