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AL Central Notes: Ramirez, Royals, White Sox, Lewis

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“There has been no movement to date” on a contract extension between Jose Ramirez and the Guardians, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Ramirez is controlled via club option for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, and the Guardians are sure to be exercising the 2022 option (worth $11MM) on the star third baseman in a matter of days.  While extension talks usually take place later in the offseason, Ramirez’s long-term future has been a topic of conversation, considering how Cleveland’s penchant for trading star players before they become too expensive for the team’s limited payroll.

Previous negotiations between the player and the team didn’t go anywhere last spring, though Ramirez has said on multiple occasions that he would like to remain in Cleveland.  Since the Guardians technically don’t have any salary committed for the 2022 season and beyond, there would appear to be payroll space to afford a Ramirez extension, even if a salary that would likely fall in the $25-$30MM average annual value range would take up a big chunk of the budget.  As to whether or not Ramirez could be a trade candidate this winter, the Guardians have tended to deal players when they’ve been a bit closer to free agency than two years, plus Cleveland does plan to contend next year.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Royals’ offseason pitching aim is to “continue to be very disciplined with our young players and work to build a really really strong and powerful and elite championship-caliber bullpen,” president of baseball operations Dayton Moore told The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and other reporters.  In a sense, it’s the same strategy that led to Kansas City’s 2015 World Series championship team, but for the 2022 club in particular, a quality relief corps will take some pressure of a young and inexperienced rotation and is still largely getting used to facing big league competition.  Moore admitted that the team’s limited payroll makes it “really difficult for us to sign a starting pitcher” of “top-of-the-rotation” caliber, but one tactic could be to pursue long relievers or spot starters to reinforce the younger rotation members.  “I think you have to look (at) guys who could give us eight to 10 starts at some point in time,” Moore said.
  • The Royals announced that first base coach Rusty Kuntz will move from the coaching ranks to a front office role as a special assistant to the president and GM for quality control.  Kuntz has been with the K.C. organization since the 2008 season, working mostly as a first base coach but also spending a few reasons in other front office capacities.  Moore said Kuntz may not be the only coaching change but most of the staff will return in 2022.
  • The White Sox aren’t planning to make any coaching changes, manager Tony La Russa told Daryl Van Schouwen of The Chicago Sun-Times.  “And that’s good, that kind of stability,” La Russa said.  “We had a good thing going. It wasn’t accidental that those guys played their [butts] off and part of it was the staff.”  The Sox already had a fair amount of coaching turnover last winter, with bench coach Miguel Cairo, pitching coach Ethan Katz, assistant hitting coach Howie Clark, and analytics coordinator Shelley Duncan all joining the staff for the first time.
  • Twins star prospect Royce Lewis missed all of 2021 recovering from a torn ACL, but the youngster told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes that he is making good progress in his recovery.  The highlight was a pair of Instructional League camp games in October, since represented Lewis’ first proper on-field action since the 2019 Arizona Fall League.  Lewis has been medically cleared to play, but he said that he will continue to focus on his running this winter, as he feels he is running at only 60 to 70 percent of his full ability.

Pirates Claim Eric Hanhold From Orioles

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The Pirates claimed right-hander Eric Hanhold off waivers from the Orioles, both teams announced.  Hanhold has been a member of the Baltimore organization since September 2019, when he was acquired in another waiver claim off the Mets’ roster.

Hanhold has pitched in parts of two MLB seasons, tossing 2 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2018 and then returning to The Show this season to throw 10 1/3 innings for the Orioles.  The righty has a 7.11 ERA over his brief big league career and hasn’t fared well either at Triple-A, with a 5.28 ERA over 93 2/3 frames at the top minor league level.  Not a big strikeout pitcher, Hanhold has relied on some hefty grounder rates in the minors, though he has only a modest 37% groundball rate as a Major Leaguer.

The Pirates can now take a look at the 28-year-old reliever, though it might not be surprising if Hanhold ends up designated for assignment or claimed by another team in the wake of future Pittsburgh roster moves.  Assuming he stays with the Bucs through the winter, Hanhold will get a chance to win a job in Spring Training as the Pirates sort their way through a wide assortment of bullpen options.

From the Orioles’ perspective, Hanhold may have been an expendable piece as the O’s continue to create some room on their 40-man roster.  Baltimore has several young players in need of protection from the Rule 5 Draft, so roster space will be required for the team to protect as many of these prospects as possible.

Phillies Decline Club Options On Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera

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The Phillies have announced that they have declined their club options on outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera for the 2022 season.  McCutchen will receive a $3MM buyout rather than a $15MM salary next year, and Herrera has been bought out for $2.5MM rather than a $11.5MM salary.

Today’s decision closes the book on the three-year, $50MM free agent contract McCutchen signed with the Phils in December 2018, a deal that ended up as something of a mixed bag.  Both sides might wonder what have been had McCutchen not suffered a torn ACL in June 2019, as the veteran had gotten off to a very strong start in his first 59 games in a Phillies uniform.

Since returning from injury rehab, McCutchen has provided above-average (106 wRC+, 107 OPS+) offense and hit .232/.331/.441 with 37 home runs over 815 PA in 2020-21.  It isn’t bad production by any stretch, though McCutchen’s .222 batting average in 2021 was a career low, and defensive metrics didn’t like his glovework as the Phillies’ regular left fielder.

Between these diminished numbers and the fact that McCutchen turned 35 in October, he might have to settle for a one-year deal this offseason.  That said, McCutchen will surely catch on somewhere, quite probably with a contender that will value having one of the game’s most respected players in the clubhouse to provide some veteran leadership.  A return to Philadelphia might not be out of the question, even if the Phillies would certainly rather pay “Cutch” a great deal less than $15MM.

Herrera is still under team control via one final year of salary arbitration, but since he is projected to earn $11.6MM, the Phillies are likely to non-tender Herrera and end their seven-year association with the outfielder.  Selected away from the Rangers in the 2014 Rule 5 draft, Herrera earned an All-Star nod in 2016, which led the Phils to sign him to a five-year, $30.5MM extension in December 2016.

However, Herrera was arrested on assault charges related to domestic violence in May 2019, and while the charges were dropped, the league suspended Herrera under the purview of the MLB/MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.  Herrera missed the rest of the 2019 season due to the 85-game suspension, and also didn’t play in 2020 when the Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man roster.  It seemed as if the Phillies were ready to part ways with Herrera, though he re-emerged in 2021 to play 124 games for the team, hitting .260/.310/.416 over 492 plate appearances.

If neither McCutchen or Herrera are brought back, the Phillies are in drastic need of outfielders to line up alongside Bryce Harper.  Existing in-house options (Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley, Travis Jankowski, Roman Quinn, Matt Vierling) don’t hold a lot of appeal as regular big league options, so outfield figures to be a key target for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski this offseason.

Trevor Bauer To Decline Opt-Out For 2022 Season

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Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer will remain in his contract for the 2022 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Bauer had the option of exercising an opt-out clause in order to test free agency again this winter, but he will instead remain on the Dodgers’ books for a $32MM salary next season.  Bauer can also opt out following next season, and if so, would take a $15MM buyout rather than a $32MM salary for 2023.

Bauer hasn’t pitched since June 28, and it remains to be seen if he will ever play Major League Baseball again in the wake of assault allegations and a temporary ex parte restraining order filed against Bauer by a woman in California in July.  This led to the revelation of another protection order that a court granted a woman in Ohio against Bauer in 2020, from an alleged incident that took place in 2017.  In regards to the California incident, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office is still reviewing the police evidence against Bauer to determine whether or not criminal charges will be filed.

MLB placed Bauer on paid administrative leave in early July, and the league and the MLB Players Association subsequently agreed to several extensions on that leave through the end of the World Series.  As a result, Bauer has already been paid the $38MM owed to him ($28MM salary, $10MM signing bonus) through the first year of his three-year, $102MM free agent deal signed with the Dodgers last February.  $20MM of that 2021 salary would’ve been paid out in deferrals had Bauer elected to opt out.

Needless to say, there was no chance Bauer was going to walk away from that $64MM, though he might yet lose at least part of that salary via suspension.  As per the MLB/MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, the league has the ability to suspend Bauer regardless of any criminal charges that may or may not be brought against him.  “The expectation around the sport is that the league would pursue a suspension of at least one year,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in August, and it seems very possible that Bauer would appeal any suspension issued, unlike other players suspended under the joint policy.

Jackie Bradley Jr. To Exercise 2022 Player Option To Remain With Brewers

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Brewers outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will be exercising his $9.5MM player option to remain in Milwaukee for the 2022 season, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Bradley would have received a $6.5MM buyout had he chosen to decline the option and re-enter the free agent market.  Bradley and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2023 season that contains an $8MM buyout.

It was expected that Bradley would pick up his option in the wake of the worst hitting season of his nine-year MLB career.  While Bradley’s numbers at the plate have always been somewhat inconsistent, his production utterly plummeted in 2021, with only a .163/.236/.261 slash line and six home runs over 428 plate appearances.  Due to his late signing, Bradley missed the first month of Spring Training, yet that lack of preparation time hardly accounts for a career-worst walk rate (6.5%) and strikeout rate (30.8%).

The offensive numbers were poor enough that Bradley was still a negative-fWAR player (-0.8) even despite his still-excellent glovework.  Bradley is a finalist for the NL center field Gold Glove, and looking to earn the award for the second time, after capturing AL honors with the Red Sox in 2018.  For a medium-market team like the Brewers, $9.5MM is a hefty price for a defense-only player, even a stellar fielder like Bradley.  It doesn’t help that the Brew Crew are also paying $18MM to Lorenzo Cain next season, another excellent defender whose bat has fallen off (though not to the extent of Bradley’s struggles).

If Milwaukee looked to carve out payroll space by trading one of the two, Bradley is probably the easier sell, if a team is willing to roll the dice on a rebound at the plate and is intrigued by the extra year of control if Bradley’s hitting does rebound.  A significant chunk of Bradley’s contract is deferred, so in terms of pure dollars, the Brewers have only paid Bradley $3MM thus far, though the future deferrals could complicate any trade possibilities.

Jurickson Profar Exercises Player Option, Will Remain With Padres

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Padres utilityman Jurickson Profar won’t opt out of his contract with the team, instead choosing to exercise his $6.5MM player option for the 2022 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).

Profar’s free agent deal with the Padres last winter contains three guaranteed years, though Profar had opt-out clauses after both this season and the 2022 season.  Opting out would have allowed Profar to pocket a $1MM buyout and then test the open market, though he will now receive a $6.5MM salary from the Padres in 2022, plus $1.5MM in remaining signing bonus money.  Profar is set to earn $7.5MM in 2023 if he doesn’t opt out of that year, with another $1MM buyout attached.  The two sides also have a $10MM mutual option on Profar’s services for the 2024 season ($1MM buyout).

There wasn’t much suspense behind Profar’s decision, as leaving $15.5MM on the table wouldn’t have been advisable considering Profar’s lackluster 2021 numbers.  Profar hit .227/.329/.320 with four home runs over 412 plate appearances, and was a sub-replacement level player in the eyes of Fangraphs’ WAR metric (-0.7).  While Profar had strong walk and strikeout rates, he simply didn’t make much hard contact, finishing in only the seventh percentile in hard-hit ball rate and barrel rate.  Profar was further hampered by a pair of stints on the COVID-related injury list, which cost him around three weeks of action.

It seemed as if Profar was turning on the corner after a solid 2020 season, yet his struggles this year only added to his history of inconsistency at the big league level.  Once considered the game’s top prospect during his time in the Rangers farm system, Profar hasn’t been able to put everything together, and his progress hasn’t been helped by a number of injuries along the way.  After playing in parts of eight MLB seasons, Profar has only 4.6 fWAR and a .236/.320/.384 slash line to show for 2444 plate appearances.

This track record notwithstanding, Profar’s good 2020 season and his top-prospect reputation garnered him quite a bit of interest on the open market last year, and the Padres were willing to go to three years to retain him.  That investment doesn’t look great one season into the deal, as while Profar was intended for something of a super-utility role in the first place, he doesn’t have a clear path to regular at-bats on next year’s Padres roster.  There is still hope for a late breakout at age-29, and while Profar’s salary isn’t exorbitant by itself, San Diego is already pushing the luxury tax threshold even before making any offseason roster adds.

Yusei Kikuchi To Decline Player Option, Test Free Agency

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Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has told the team that he is declining his $13MM player option for the 2022 season, according to The Athletic’s Corey Brock (Twitter link).  The southpaw will now enter the free agent market after three seasons in Seattle.

As per the unusual structure of Kikuchi’s contract, the Mariners had until Friday to decide whether or not to exercise four years’ worth of $16.5MM club options for the lefty covering the 2022-25 seasons — effectively, a four-year/$66MM extension.  If the Mariners declined to pick up those options, Kikuchi could then opt into the 2022 season via his $13MM player option.

Today’s news indicates that the M’s have indeed passed on those four option years, which isn’t a shock considering the inconsistent nature of Kikuchi’s 2021 season.  However, earlier reports suggested that Kikuchi would exercise his player option, making his decision to hit the open market something of a surprise.

2021 was the best of Kikuchi’s three MLB campaigns, as he posted a 4.41 ERA, 48.4% grounder rate, and an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate over 157 innings for Seattle.  The underlying Statcast metrics weren’t nearly as solid, as Kikuchi’s hard contact numbers were among the worst of any pitcher in the league, and this issue eventually caught up to Kikuchi as the season went on.  After posting a 3.48 ERA over 98 1/3 IP in the first half and earning a spot on the AL All-Star team, Kikuchi’s ERA blew up to 5.98 over 58 2/3 frames in the second half.

While not the best platform season for a free agent, Kikuchi and his representatives at The Boras Corporation must think that the 30-year-old can land a solid multi-year deal on the open market.  It isn’t a far-out argument, considering that teams are always in need of starting pitching.  All it takes is one suitor to see some untapped potential in Kikuchi, or perhaps he could be seen as a change-of-scenery candidate.  The left-hander has a 4.97 ERA over his 365 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball, yet with some flashes of better performance (i.e. the first half of 2021, and how Kikuchi’s peripherals in 2020 generally outperformed his real-world numbers).

Other factors could also be at play, beyond just Kikuchi’s desire to land a larger contract.  Speculatively, a return to Japan might not be out of the question, if Kikuchi wished to once again pitch in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Kikuchi was one of NPB’s top pitchers before making the jump to North America, and he would likely find no shortage of interest from the Seibu Lions (his old team) or another Japanese team if he returned to his home country.

From the Mariners’ perspective, they now have a hole in the rotation to fill, though Kikuchi projected as a third starter at best considering how his 2021 season ended.  The M’s were already expected to be targeting starting pitching this winter, and they now have an extra $13MM to work with in their offseason pursuits.  Seattle has less than $57MM committed to their 2022 payroll, and GM Jerry Dipoto has said that ownership has okayed the front office to increase spending following the team’s 90-win season.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search

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NOVEMBER 1: The Red Sox are expected to grant Ferreira permission to interview with the Mets, assuming she’s interested in doing so, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (on Twitter).

OCTOBER 30, 1:23PM: Brewers VP of baseball operations Matt Kleine is another candidate the Mets have discussed, as per Martino (Twitter link).  With both Kleine and Rodriguez, however, the Mets are wary about approaching the Brewers and Rays since both teams have repeatedly denied New York’s requests to interview other front office personnel in the past.  Kleine is believed to be interested, and his hiring could help set the stage for the Mets to land Stearns as a free agent a year from now (or after the 2023 season, depending on the reported vesting option in Stearns’ deal with Milwaukee).

OCTOBER 30, 8:05AM: The Mets’ attempts to hire a new president of baseball operations or general manager has hit its share of roadblocks, and Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston is the latest executive to decline an interview with the team, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma.  However, several other prospective candidates remain, as it seems as though the Mets now could be specifically looking for a general manager, rather than someone to fully take the entire reigns of the baseball ops department.

To this end, Puma writes Rays VP of player development Carlos Rodriguez, and assistant GMs Daniel Adler (Twins), Randy Flores (Cardinals), and Ben Sestanovich (Braves) are all “on the Mets’ radar” as possible candidates.  The Mets have also asked the Red Sox for permission to speak with assistant GM Raquel Ferreira, SNY’s Andy Martino reports.

Any of these five executives would be a first-time GM, and ostensibly in charge of the baseball operations department even without the official “president” label.  The unusual nature of the Mets’ front office dynamic has led to some questions about how much authority a new GM would have, as team president Sandy Alderson is remaining with the club and has said he’ll be shifting over to focusing on the team’s business matters once a new baseball ops head is in place.

Had Mets owner Steve Cohen been successful in luring one of his big-ticket initial targets (i.e. Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, David Stearns) to New York, it would’ve made for a smoother transition, as any of those execs would’ve been the PBO and had the sway to make their own choice for a general manager to act as their chief lieutenant.  However, it is perhaps understandable why Kingston and others have opted out of what could be considered as something of a glorified one-year trial period.  If the Mets play well in 2022, a newly-hired GM could be entrusted to become the president of baseball operations; if the Mets struggle, Cohen could resume his search for a major name as PBO, leaving the general manager as perhaps something of a lame duck.

Cardinals GM Michael Girsch, Giants GM Scott Harris, newly-promoted Brewers GM Matt Arnold, and another Dodgers assistant in Brandon Gomes have all declined to be considered for the Mets’ job.  For the five names mentioned by Puma and Martino, it is possible any of the Rays, Twins, Cardinals, Braves, or Red Sox could deny New York permission to interview their personnel, though teams usually don’t stand in the way of their executives being offered a promotion.

Kingston technically has experience as a general manager, as he served as the Mariners’ interim GM for the last month-plus of the 2015 season after Jack Zduriencik was fired.  Kingston has worked as an assistant GM for the last six seasons (three with the Mariners, three with the Dodgers) and he has been considered for other front office openings in recent years.  The Phillies and Angels each had interest in Kingston for their most recent GM vacancies, and Kingston was a finalist for the Angels’ position before the team hired Perry Minasian.

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