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Rangers Interested In Chris Martin

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 7:37pm CDT

As the Rangers continue to rebuild their bullpen, their list of targets includes a local product, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the team has interest in Arlington native Chris Martin.  The veteran reliever said in September that he is “95%” certain that 2025 will be his last season, and since Martin is thought to be prioritizing teams closer to his home in Texas, a return to the Rangers would make a lot of logical sense for both sides.

Though Martin turns 39 in June and is likely entering his farewell season, his recent results indicate that the right-hander has plenty left in the tank.  Martin posted a 3.45 ERA in 44 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season, with a 2.43 SIERA that is more reflective his performance level.  His ability to generate grounders (46.3% groundball rate) was undermined by Boston’s poor infield defense, leading to a .353 BABIP that fueled Martin’s misleading ERA.

The rest of his metrics ranged from above-average to elite, including a 27.8% strikeout rate, strong soft-contact numbers, and Martin’s typically brilliant control.  Long one of baseball’s best control pitchers, Martin’s 1.7% walk rate in 2024 was the lowest of any hurler with at least 40 innings pitched.  Perhaps the only question mark clouding Martin last year was his health, as he had three different trips to the 15-day injured list due to anxiety, right elbow inflammation, and an issue with his left shoulder.

Martin is a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until age 28 when he was pitching for the Rockies in 2014.  After posting a 6.19 ERA in 36 1/3 innings with the Rockies and Yankees in 2014-15, he went to Japan and posted outstanding numbers over the next two seasons with the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

This success led to a two-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers during the 2016-17 offseason, as Martin made his return to North American baseball pitching for his hometown team.  The stint in Texas saw Martin show flashes of his future self, and his success early in the 2019 season led Atlanta to swing a deal for him at the 2019 trade deadline.  Over five years later, Martin could now be considering a return to Arlington with a World Series ring (with the 2021 Braves) and $34MM more in career earnings in tow, as well as an earned reputation as a steady high-leverage reliever.

Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that “the bullpen is the primary focus” for the team in the remainder of the offseason and during the season, and Texas has gotten a start on that work already his winter.  Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, and Hoby Milner have all been acquired to date, but a more proven late-innings reliever like Martin would greatly stabilize things.  Kirby Yates and A.J. Minter are two of the other still-unsigned relievers linked to the Rangers on the rumor mill this offseason.

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Texas Rangers Chris Martin

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Ehire Adrianza Announces Retirement

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 6:45pm CDT

Veteran utilityman Ehire Adrianza has decided to retire after 12 Major League seasons.  The 35-year-old Adrianza made the official announcement on his Instagram page, thanking the many people who contributed to his success.

“This journey has been incredibly challenging, filled with ups and downs, but every step along the way has been a blessing that I cherish immensely,” Adrianza said.  “Since my childhood, I dreamed of the possibility of winning a World Series, a goal that once seemed so distant and almost unattainable.  However, thanks to my effort, dedication, and the unwavering support of each one of you, that dream has become a reality.  I still find it hard to believe that I have had the honor of playing more than a decade in the Major Leagues.  I never imagined I would achieve so much, and it’s astonishing to reflect on this experience.”

Adrianza has been part of six different organizations over his career, and he saw big league action in the form of 624 games with the Giants, Twins, Nationals, Braves, and Angels from 2013-24.  His long career saw Adrianza play roles on World Series-winning teams in San Francisco (in 2014) and Atlanta (2021), with Adrianza getting 10 pinch-hit at-bats during the Braves’ postseason run.

Hitting .237/.307/.352 in 1578 career plate appearances, Adrianza was able to consistently latch onto MLB rosters due to his ability to play almost anywhere on the diamond.  He made at least 16 career starts at six different positions (all four infield positions plus the two corner outfield slots) while also making a few cameos as a center fielder and pitcher.  The Outs Above Average and UZR/150 metrics gave Adrianza plus grades over his career at shortstop and third base, his two most frequent positions.

Adrianza was usually a part-timer or bench player who was only pressed into more regular duty in the event of an injury, though this happened often enough that he was a useful player to have on hand.  His 114 games with Minnesota in 2018 was a career high, followed by his 109 games with the Braves in 2021.  In the latter season, his ability to come off the bench and make the odd spot start made him a valuable member of an Atlanta team that had to overcome some significant injuries on its way to the championship.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Adrianza on a fine career, and we wish him all the best in the next phase of his life.

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Atlanta Braves Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Ehire Adrianza Retirement

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Marlins Notes: Payroll, Alcantara

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 5:59pm CDT

The rebuilding Marlins have continued to subtract from their big league roster this winter, trading Jake Burger to the Rangers and Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies.  Since Burger wasn’t yet arbitration-eligible and Luzardo was projected for a modest $6MM in his second arb year, the trades were more about adding young talent than cutting payroll, yet losing even Luzardo’s estimated $6MM salary has an additional impact on a bigger-picture question facing Miami’s finances.

As observed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (using estimates from RosterResource), the Marlins have a luxury tax number of roughly $82.8MM.  This leaves the Fish some ground to cover before they reach the $105MM threshold estimated as the figure representing 150 percent of the club’s reported $70MM or so in revenue-sharing funds.  As stipulated by the league’s collective bargaining agreement, teams who receive revenue-sharing funds must spend at least 150 percent of those funds on player payroll, at the risk of facing a grievance from the players’ union.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the Marlins faced this consequence, as the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, and Athletics in February 2018 based on the union’s stance that the clubs were simply pocketing a good deal of their revenue-sharing money, rather than reinvesting those funds towards player payroll.  Rosenthal and his Athletic colleague Evan Drellich recently noted that that grievance was still pending in an adjusted form, though the most recent CBA saw the minimum spend rise from 125 percent to its current 150 percent figure.

The revenue-sharing minimum drew more of a spotlight this winter when the A’s started to increase their payroll, which was viewed as the team trying to hit that $105MM tax number and avoid any heat from the players’ union.  The Athletics’ situation is a little different since their revenue-sharing status was reduced in the earlier years of the CBA while the team was looking for a new ballpark, and they are now back to receiving a full-fledged share of revenue-sharing funds in 2025.

The Marlins have generally been among the lowest-spending teams in baseball for most of their history, and spanning multiple ownership groups.  Bruce Sherman’s purchase of the Marlins in 2017 was initially viewed as a possible light at the end of the payroll tunnel, though the sudden departure of CEO Derek Jeter prior to the 2022 season threw a wrench into that perception, especially since payroll expenditures were reportedly one of several sources of disagreement between Sherman and Jeter.

Miami did elevate spending a bit under GM Kim Ng and the team made the playoffs in 2023, but Sherman’s desire for a better farm system led to Ng’s departure after that season, and the hiring of Peter Bendix as the Marlins’ new president of baseball operations.  Taking a page from Bendix’s former team in Tampa Bay, the Marlins seem to be moving towards a Rays-esque model of relying on a strong minor league pipeline to build their rosters, while only modestly spending on payrolls.  Bendix’s arrival kickstarted yet another rebuild, as the Marlins have dealt several of their more experienced and higher-priced players over the last year.

As much as the Athletics’ winter moves were made with the revenue-sharing number in mind, acquiring Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and Gio Urshela are also sensible from an on-field standpoint, given the club’s needs in the rotation and at third base.  Considering that the A’s played solid baseball over the last three months of the 2024 season, the West Sacramento team might even have some darkhorse potential as a wild card contender if everything breaks right and the Athletics get another breakout or two from younger players.

The Marlins are in a different situation.  While there is some interesting talent on the roster, it is very hard to imagine Miami contending in 2025, nor does contending seem to be in the front office’s plans within the near future as Bendix focused on overhauling the player development system.

Spending $22.2MM to get up to the $105MM threshold likely won’t translate, therefore, in any additions that will help Miami win ballgames in 2025.  The Marlins could add a couple of lower-cost veterans on one-year deals, with an eye towards potentially trading those players at the deadline once the majority of their salaries have been officially tallied onto the team’s tax bill.  With a nod towards the Marlins’ goal of restocking the farm system, Bendix could potentially look into trading for a bad contract or two from another team, with that other team adding some prospects as a sweetener to further entice Miami into absorbing most or all of the money owed.

Unsurprisingly, Bendix didn’t provide many details on the Marlins’ spending plans, telling the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and other reporters this week that “I’m not going to comment on what we might or might not do.  Bruce continues to give us all the resources we need to build this franchise for sustainable success.”

Bendix also didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Sandy Alcantara could be traded, saying that “We never rule out anything.  We listen to everything.”  That said, Alcantara was told back in August that he probably wasn’t getting dealt this offseason, and Bendix noted that “Sandy is a really important piece for our organization.  I’m really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day.”

Alcantara is the highest-paid player on Miami’s roster, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons, plus there is a $21MM club option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2027.  This salary has naturally made Alcantara the subject of continued trade rumors, even though Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.

Obviously the Marlins wouldn’t be trading the right-hander for a maximum return in the wake of this injury, which is why a deal this winter remains unlikely.  If Bendix was to sell low on Alcantara now only to see him rebound to ace form in the early part of the 2025 season, that’ll count as a missed opportunity to gain the biggest possible trade package for the Marlins’ biggest remaining trade chip.  Miami’s payroll might also factor into the equation here, as Rosenthal notes that trading Alcantara would leave the Marlins even further away from the $105MM revenue-sharing threshold.

Just as Bendix isn’t likely to openly state that Alcantara is available in trade talks, the PBO also isn’t likely to entirely shut down any offers because of basic due diligence.  Bendix surely doesn’t want to limit options just in case a pitching-needy team actually is willing to part with a premium return for a pitcher coming off a lost season.

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Red Sox Acquire Jovani Moran From Twins For Mickey Gasper

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 4:26pm CDT

The Red Sox and Twins have lined up on a Christmas Eve trade that will see left-hander Jovani Moran head to Boston in exchange for catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper.  Hunter Noll of Beyond The Monster was the first to report the deal, and both teams have officially announced the trade.

Moran underwent Tommy John surgery last offseason, leading to the Twins to non-tender him before re-signing the southpaw to another minor league deal.  Moran naturally didn’t pitch at all in 2024 while rehabbing, and he’ll now look to return to the mound in Boston, as the 27-year-old is changing organizations for the first time in his career.

A seventh-round pick for the Twins in the 2015 draft, Moran also missed full minor league seasons in 2016 (due to injury) and in 2020 (the pandemic-canceled season).  Moran finally made his MLB debut in the form of eight innings for the Twins in 2021, and he then seemingly broke out with a 2.21 ERA over 40 2/3 relief innings for Minnesota in 2022.  Moran supported that strong ERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate and 48.9% grounder rate, yet both his peripherals and his bottom-line results went backwards the next year.

Moran had a 5.31 ERA, 41.9% grounder rate, and 26.1% strikeout rate in 42 1/3 frames in 2023, and after being optioned to Triple-A at the start of his August, his season was prematurely ended by a forearm strain in September that led to his eventual TJ surgery.

Despite the lack of a big fastball, Moran’s ability to miss bats and his knack for inducing grounders has helped him achieve success in the minors and (in limited fashion) at the big league level.  Control is his biggest question mark, as Moran has a 13.5% walk rate over his 91 career MLB innings and a 12.36BB% in 257 2/3 innings of minor league ball.

Moran joins Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson as left-handed additions to the Red Sox bullpen mix this offseason, though Moran is more of a depth option at this point depending on his health and his form after the long layoff.  While he probably won’t be ready for the Opening Day roster, some time in the minors might help Moran fully recover and get some innings under his belt before the Red Sox consider him for any possible role in their big league bullpen.

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman writes that Moran received some attention from teams heading into the Rule 5 Draft, and in fact it was Gasper who came to the Red Sox from the Yankees organization in the minor league version of the 2023 Rule R5.  The selection resulted in Gasper’s first taste of big league action, though he didn’t record a hit in his 23 plate appearances over 13 games for the Sox this season.

Gasper played first and second base during his brief time in the Show, but the majority of his career has come behind the plate.  Gasper’s ability to both catch and play other positions (primarily first and second, with a handful of games as a third baseman and left fielder) adds to his versatility, not to mention his switch-hitting bat.  This creates a possible opening for Gasper to win a bench job in Minnesota, as a third catcher and general utilityman behind the Twins’ catching tandem of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez.  It remains to be seen if the Twins will be able to trade Vazquez and get any of his contract off the books, yet if so, Gasper could be a candidate as Jeffers’ backup.

Gasper was a 27th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2018 draft, but he carved a path for himself through New York’s farm system with some strong numbers at every step of the minor league ladder.  Over an even 1600 minor league PA, Gasper has hit .275/.392/.449 with 48 homers, and those numbers include nine home runs and a .317/.422/.498 slash line in 282 PA at the Triple-A level.

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Boston Red Sox Minnesota Twins Transactions Jovani Moran Mickey Gasper

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Yankees Interested In Tim Hill

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 2:57pm CDT

Starters Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are the only left-handed pitchers on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, leaving the Bronx Bombers in clear need of some southpaw depth for the bullpen.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the team is considering a few left-handed relief options, including a possible reunion with Tim Hill.

After posting a 5.87 ERA in 23 innings with the White Sox, Hill was released by Chicago in June and quickly scooped up by the Yankees on a new contract.  The change of scenery worked wonders for Hill in terms of bottom-line results, as he posted a 2.05 ERA in 44 frames with New York during the regular season and then a tiny 1.08 ERA over 10 appearances and 8 1/3 innings in the playoffs.

Hill’s status as an extreme groundball pitcher can lead to such big swings in performance, as one often needs to look behind just the ERA to fully gauge the veteran lefty’s effectiveness.  Hill had an enormous .436 BABIP with the White Sox and then a .238 BABIP with the Yankees, perhaps explaining why the gap in SIERA (3.33 with New York, 4.04 with Chicago) isn’t quite as large as Hill’s ERAs would suggest.  The biggest change was improved control, as Hill had an 8.5% walk rate with the Sox and then only a 5.2% walk rate in the Bronx.

Now entering his age-35 season, Hill has a 3.99 ERA over 322 1/3 career innings across seven MLB seasons, with a 61.8% grounder rate helping overcome only a 17.3% career strikeout rate.  Those numbers naturally include a lot of success against left-handed batters, as Hill has held same-sided hitters to a .614 OPS (while right-handed hitters have a .788 OPS).  The home run ball has been an issue for Hill in the past, though he allowed just two homers over his 75 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason in 2024.

It was almost exactly a year ago that Hill signed a one-year, $1.8MM contract with the White Sox, on the heels of being non-tendered by the Padres.  His late-season success in the Yankees very likely means that Hill will land another guaranteed deal this winter, though his age and somewhat inconsistent track record will limit him to a one-year pact.  This limited price tag is surely a plus for a Yankees team already projected to be over the highest level of luxury tax penalization.  From Hill’s perspective, one would imagine he would also have interest in returning to the Yankees given his post-trade success, and getting another crack at winning a World Series ring.

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Red Sox Discussed Jared Jones Trade With Pirates During Winter Meetings

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 1:49pm CDT

Starting pitching has been a priority for the Red Sox this winter, and the club has actively addressed that need by trading for Garrett Crochet and signing both Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval.  Several other starters have been on Boston’s radar throughout the offseason, including some talks with the Pirates about right-hander Jared Jones during the Winter Meetings, according to the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

The depth of the negotiations aren’t known, or whether Boston’s interest was perhaps anything more than a due-diligence check-in just in case the Crochet trade didn’t come together.  In an example of how teams are constantly following multiple paths at once during an offseason, Speier notes that the Red Sox were also showing interest in the Mariners’ Luis Castillo as a trade target along with Jones and Crochet, and also speaking with such free agents as Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Pivetta.

Despite their rotation additions to date, it can probably be assumed that the Red Sox would still be interested in acquiring Jones, simply because every team would love to have a controllable, 23-year-old pitcher coming off an impressive rookie season.  Reports from earlier this month indicated that Pittsburgh was (somewhat surprisingly) open to the idea of at least hearing offers for Jones, though that was before the Pirates dealt from their rotation depth by moving Luis Ortiz to the Guardians for Spencer Horwitz.

Heading into the winter, it was widely assumed that the Pirates would swing such a pitching-for-hitting trade, given the team’s need for offense and its number of available pitchers.  Even with Ortiz now in Cleveland, the Buccos still have a projected rotation of Jones, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, and Johan Oviedo, plus several highly-touted prospects in the minors who are knocking on the door for their MLB debuts.

Whether or not the Pirates would be willing to further deal from the pitching ranks remains to be seen, and in Jones’ case, it would assuredly take a massive offer for Pittsburgh to even consider moving the right-hander.  As it relates to the Red Sox in particular, the Pirates would be justified in asking for any of Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, or at least one of Boston’s “big three” prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell) in return for Jones.

Casas’ name was already floated in talks with the Mariners about Seattle’s cadre of young starters, while Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell are thought to be all but untouchable in trade discussions.  Speier writes that none of that minor league trio was ever offered to the White Sox for Crochet, and “the White Sox understood the Red Sox weren’t going to discuss” those players.  However, it should be noted that the Big Three was initially a Big Four, but Kyle Teel ended up being the prospect sent to Chicago as the headliner of the Crochet trade package.

A blockbuster swap of young talent between the Pirates and Red Sox shouldn’t be ruled out entirely, given how a deal would neatly address the twin needs of both clubs.  That being said, even if Skenes might be the only entirely untouchable Pirates pitcher in trade talks, it can be assumed that Pittsburgh would explore moving any of its other arms before looking to deal Jones.  If the Pirates were considering a trade from closer to the top of their rotation, moving Keller and the $69.5MM remaining on his contract over the next four seasons would seem like the preferred option for the ever budget-conscious Bucs.

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Giants Re-Sign Raymond Burgos To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 1:10pm CDT

The Giants signed Raymond Burgos to a new minor league contract earlier this month, as per the left-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Burgos elected minor league free agency after the season, but he’ll now return for what will be his third season in San Francisco’s organization.

An 18th-round pick for Cleveland in the 2016 draft, Burgos didn’t make his pro debut until 2018 due to Tommy John surgery.  He entered minor league free agency after the 2022 campaign and caught on with the Giants for the first time that winter.  The Giants parted ways with the southpaw last fall and Burgos caught on with a Mexican League team, only to rejoin the Giants on a new minors deal last April.

This reunion led to Burgos’ first and only appearance at the big league level.  The 26-year-old left-hander allowed a run on three hits in his lone inning of relief work in San Francisco’s 5-4 win over the Cubs.  Soon after that debut appearance, the Giants designated Burgos for assignment and then outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

Working mostly as a reliever during his career in the minors, Burgos has posted solid numbers, including a 3.38 ERA, 22% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate in 48 Triple-A innings.  Burgos’ lack of standout strikeout ability could be hampering his path to the bigs, but he has been consistently effective at retiring same-sided batters.  Taylor Rogers and Erik Miller are slated to be the top left-handers out of the Giants’ bullpen, and it makes sense that the team would add to this depth (for at least the Triple-A level) with a known quantity in Burgos.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sets Spring Training Deadline For Extension Talks With Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | December 22, 2024 at 11:21pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question hanging over the Blue Jays as they prepare for what might be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman.  GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays would be looking to start extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations were taking place in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).

Guerrero reiterated that he has interest in staying in Toronto, and is “ready to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price.  However, “what they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340MM.  Notably, this offer came after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, and completely reset the market for superstar players.

Only limited time may be available to close the gap that exists between the two sides, as Guerrero said that he has let the front office know that he will cease negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ Spring Training camp.   It is a bit of an unusual self-imposed deadline date, as most players set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension.  Obviously an extension can happen at any point before a player enters free agency, yet players generally prefer to keep focused only on baseball once the season begins, and thus contract talks are usually limited to the offseason.

It isn’t uncommon for some deals, of course, to be announced a few days or weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and just a few final details needed to be confirmed.  Likewise, Guerrero probably isn’t going to end all talks in late February if he and the Jays have worked out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore rather complex) extension.  That said, reducing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a pretty public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.

This is purely speculation on my part, but the earlier “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade.  If an extension can’t be worked out before Spring Training properly begins and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero won’t re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and try to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets prior to Opening Day.  To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason adding talent to take another run at contention in 2025, it would seem far more likely that the Jays just keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what might be something of a final run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.

The length of the $340MM offer wasn’t specified, but a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “only” an average annual value of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the 15th-highest AAV in baseball history.  Nine years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks as the seventh-highest all-time, topped only by the most recent deals signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Judge.  An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.

Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, however, so an eight-year deal only runs through his age-33 season.  Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero through just his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340MM range only lowers the AAV to an even greater extent.  It isn’t necessarily clear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it is easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth slightly more than half of what Soto (who is also entering his age-26 season) received from New York.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the gap in production between Soto and Guerrero would justify a gap in earnings, though it isn’t quite as large a divide as one might imagine.  Soto’s huge 2024 campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking price through the ceiling, but looking just at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.

Through his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR.  For both players, their value is largely derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as well below average in both departments.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero, and floated the idea of a contract of somewhere between $500MM-$600MM.  Assuming no deferred money would be involved, this would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto.  “Excessive as it might sound to the average fan…keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market.  And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt,” Rosenthal writes.

The latter point is another over-arching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro.  While the Blue Jays came out of a rebuild to reach the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the club didn’t win even a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window could already be closed.

Toronto’s ardent pursuits of both Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter indicated that ownership was prepared to go the distance in bidding on top-flight talent, though it remains to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero quite in the same tier those other two superstars.  It was just a year ago that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth any kind of long-term investment.  For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also catching fire in the postseason to help the Nationals win the World Series.

Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto specifically is a comp that Guerrero’s reps at the Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it keeps Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite salary tier.  Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox is also frequently mentioned as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was also entering his age-26 season.  Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons prior to his extension) and thus an argument to earn more than Devers got from Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish number reflects the idea of Guerrero as only slightly better than Devers.

It could also be, of course, that the Jays are willing to pay well above $340MM, but offered that figure as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking price in the wake of Soto’s contract.  Plenty of time still exists for the two sides to eventually match up on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal isn’t exactly imminent.

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Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | December 22, 2024 at 9:48pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Tigers Sign Jordan Balazovic To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | December 22, 2024 at 6:55pm CDT

The Tigers have signed right-hander Jordan Balazovic to a minor league deal, according to Just Baseball Media’s Aram Leighton.  Balazovic returns to North American baseball after a brief stint with the Doosan Bears of the KBO League, as Balazovic signed with the Bears after he was released by the Twins last July.

A fifth-round pick for Minnesota in the 2016 draft, Balazovic earned some looks at the back of top-100 prospect lists during his climb up the ladder of the Twins’ farm system.  However, most of his success happened in the lower rungs of the ladder, as Balazovic has a 6.35 ERA in 151 2/3 career innings of Triple-A ball.  Despite those struggles, the Twins gave him a look at the big league level in 2023, and Balazovic posted a 4.44 ERA, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate across his first 24 1/3 innings in the Show.

The Twins opted to designate Balazovic for assignment last February and then released him, though he was quickly re-signed to another minor league contract.  More struggles at Triple-A led to Balazovic being released again so he could pursue his opportunity in South Korea, and Balazovic had a 4.26 ERA and a strong 27.6% strikeout rate in 57 innings with the Bears, starting 11 of his 12 games.

Balazovic still had an 11.2% walk rate with the Bears, which is a bit higher than his 9.01% career walk rate in the minors.  His control worsened as Balazovic faced higher levels of competition in the minors, while his strikeout and grounder rates were generally pretty solid, albeit with some variance within the small sample sizes of bouncing to different minor league levels.

Balazovic is only 26, so there’s logic in the Tigers taking a flier on a former notable prospect to see if another change of scenery helps the right-hander unlock any potential.  Detroit has also signed the likes of Matt Gage, Brendan White, and Ryan Miller to minors deals in recent days, as the Tigers are lining up some depth arms to evaluate in spring camp.  These types of signings are common practice for any team, of course, and won’t preclude Detroit from taking a run at bigger-name bullpen options like reported target Kirby Yates.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Jordan Balazovic

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