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Poll: Do Season-Opening Streaks Carry Extra Weight?

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MLB’s regular season is officially underway, and clubs are already in the thick of the race to the postseason. One of the biggest storylines of the season so far has surrounded three teams that have gone streaking to open the year. The Dodgers (8-0) and Padres (7-0) have both yet to lose a game, while the Braves (0-7) have yet to win after opening the season against those two clubs. Those streaks have led to all three clubs getting plenty of attention, particularly the Dodgers as they became the first team in MLB history to follow up a World Series championship by starting the next season with eight straight wins.

Perhaps even more focus has been placed on Atlanta, however, as the club was widely expected entering the season to be a top contender for not only the NL East, but also the World Series this year. Though the club finished second to the Phillies in a recent MLBTR poll about who would win the division this year, Atlanta received 32% of the vote, nearly double the third-place Mets’ 18% figure. The playoff odds at Fangraphs told an even rosier story, as the club was given a 93.2% chance to make the playoffs prior to the season beginning, as well as a 63.7% chance at winning the division and a 15.7% chance at a World Series championship that was second only to the Dodgers themselves.

The club’s 0-7 start has caused those odds to plummet, however, as Fangraphs now affords the Braves just a 70.5% chance at making the postseason, with a 32.6% chance at winning the division and a 9.1% chance to win the World Series. It’s a steep drop for just one week of games, and by contrast the Padres have seen their projected fortunes improve just as much, going from a 30.6% chance to make the postseason heading into Opening Day all the way up to a 54.4% chance entering play today. Even the pessimistic playoff odds the Braves are facing don’t hold a candle to the perception of many fans and media members, however. Much has been made of the fact that no team in baseball history has recovered from a 0-7 start to make the postseason, and that the 1980 Braves (81-80) and 1983 Astros (85-77) are the only clubs to even finish with a winning record.

With that being said, however, it must be noted that this only applies to teams that began the season with a 0-7 record. Plenty of teams have made the playoffs with seven-game losing streaks on their resumes, particularly in recent years as the postseason has begun to expand. Just last year, the Royals made the playoffs with two separate seven-game losing streaks to their names. The 2017 Dodgers infamously suffered a 1-16 stretch that included an 11-game losing streak before turning things around and making it to Game Seven of the World Series.

Of course, that’s not to say all of the sentiments surrounding these clubs are built on the biases that could surround a small-sample performance. The Dodgers were viewed around the league as the best team in baseball well before the 2025 season began, not only because they won the World Series last year but also because they aggressively improved the club by adding Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki (among others) this winter. Meanwhile, concerns about Atlanta’s path into the postseason this year could be argued to have just as much to do with a deep group of potential playoff teams in the NL, the PED suspension of Jurickson Profar, and shoulder surgery for Reynaldo Lopez as they do the team’s actual record on the field.

It also can’t be entirely dismissed that some streaks have more impact on a club’s future competitiveness than others. Naturally, large swings in the standings are more likely to have a relative impact in the first half of the year than the second half, as they can factor into the decisions club executives make over the summer regarding whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline. That impacts the overall talent level of a club in a way that streaks such as the aforementioned strings of losses suffered by the 2017 Dodgers and 2024 Royals, all of which occurred after that season’s deadline, simply cannot replicate.

Where do MLBTR readers fall on this topic? Are the strings of wins the Dodgers and Padres are presently enjoying and the string of losses in Atlanta more meaningful than they would be if they occurred later in the season instead? Or does the fact that every game counts the same in the standings at the end of the season mean it’s no different than any other streak? Have your say in the poll below:

Do Streaks Matter More At The Start Of The Season?
No, every game counts the same. 66.35% (1,670 votes)
Yes, it's more impactful for a team to start the season on a streak than it is for one to happen later in the season. 33.65% (847 votes)
Total Votes: 2,517

The Opener: Mariners, Henderson, Minor Leagues

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As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Mariners 40-man move incoming:

The Mariners are reportedly poised to select the contract Luis F. Castillo today, who will start today’s game against the Giants and Justin Verlander after teammate and veteran righty Luis Castillo started the club’s last game on Wednesday. In order to make way for that quirky bit of trivia, Seattle will need to clear a 40-man roster spot. With no obvious candidates for the 60-day injured list on the roster, the Mariners will likely need to designate one of their players for assignment, at which point they’ll have one week to either trade that player or successfully pass them through waivers.

2. Henderson likely to be activated:

Gunnar Henderson opened the season on the injured list, but manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner) that it’s “probable” the star infielder will be activated from the injured list to start the club’s series opener against the Royals in Kansas City, for which Baltimore will be facing veteran right-hander Seth Lugo coming off his dominant 2024 season where he finished as the runner up to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young award voting. The Orioles have gotten off to a difficult 3-4 start to this point in the season, but the return of Henderson after a year where he broke out to the tune of a .281/.364/.529 slash line and finished fourth in AL MVP voting should go a long way to improving the club’s offense. The return of Henderson figures to kick Jackson Holliday off shortstop back to second base, with Jordan Westburg returning to third base after covering the keystone and Ramon Urias heading for the bench.

3. Minor League Opening Day:

While the major leagues had their Opening Day last week and Triple-A followed suit shortly there after, the rest of minor league baseball has not yet began their seasons. That changes today with the arrival of Opening Day for Double-A, High-A, and Single-A affiliates all around baseball. The earliest of those games is a game between the Double-A affiliates of the Orioles and Pirates, the Chesapeake Baysox and the Altoona Curve. That game begins at 5pm CT this evening, though of course all three levels have 15 games scheduled to run throughout the evening. Prospect hounds will get their first opportunities to catch glimpses of the 51 of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects who are currently in the lower full-season levels of the minors, including top-ten talents like Twins outfield prospect Walker Jenkins, Tigers outfield prospect Max Clark, and Guardians second base prospect Travis Bazzana.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers and Tigers have been voted as the favorites to win their respective divisions. The final division left to cover in this series is the AL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

New York Yankees (94-68)

The reigning league champion can never be counted out as a contender for their division, and that’s certainly true when it comes to a franchise with as strong of a history as the Yankees. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue the club is better on paper today than it was a year ago. 2024’s club was largely built around the presence of three superstars: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. While Judge is still crushing baseballs in the Bronx as reliably as ever, Soto departed for Queens on a massive $765MM pact over the winter while Cole underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss the entire 2025 season. The losses of Soto and Cole are a major blow to the club’s lineup and rotation, and the latter has been further dented by injuries suffered by Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil while the former is exacerbated by the absence of Giancarlo Stanton.

That’s not to say the club has no reasons for optimism, however. All of Stanton, Gil, and Schmidt could return at some point during the first half, with Schmidt in particular likely to be back in the rotation later this month. The addition of star southpaw Max Fried offers the club a suitable stand-in ace for Cole this season even after a somewhat middling debut in pinstripes, while an offensive nucleus of Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should score plenty of runs even without Soto, especially if Goldschmidt can turn back the clock during his age-37 season. That’s before even mentioning their elite bullpen, which was top three in the AL last year even before this winter’s upgrade from Clay Holmes to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Even with the loss of Soto and their many early season injuries, the Yankees cannot be ruled out to repeat at the top of the division.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

After a second consecutive playoff appearance with zero wins to show for it, some fans in Baltimore are starting to get antsy. New owner David Rubenstein’s first offseason at the helm of the club came with big expectations that the club would step away from the frugality of recent years and commit more strongly to contention, and in some ways that did happen. The club replaced Anthony Santander’s power in the lineup by bringing in Tyler O’Neill on the first multi-year guarantee the club has made since Mike Elias took over baseball operations, and went about upgrading an already-strong offense in other ways by bringing in Gary Sanchez and Ramon Laureano. Considering the Orioles already have a phenomenal offensive nucleus built around players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, those upgrades should give them among the most fearsome lineups in the sport.

That aggressiveness in bolstering the offense was not matched on the pitching side of things, however. Staff ace Corbin Burnes was allowed to depart for Arizona, and his replacements in the rotation are a pair of aging veterans in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. While both are decorated pitchers who could offer strong mid-rotation production, the loss of Burnes puts a great deal of pressure on Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list) to perform in front-of-the-rotation roles. The possible return of Kyle Bradish later this season from UCL surgery should help things, but even that would come with question marks due to a year-long layoff. The bullpen is in better shape, fortunately, with closer Felix Bautista back from his own UCL surgery and Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez among the other late inning options. If the club’s rotation can hold up and avoid further injuries, the Orioles should have as good of a shot as anyone at the AL East crown this year.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

The AL East club with by far the biggest offseason, the Red Sox made significant splashes this winter when they traded for (and, more recently, extended) ace southpaw Garrett Crochet before bringing in third baseman Alex Bregman on a three-year, opt-out laden deal. Both of those moves are likely to transform last year’s middling club into true contenders, giving Boston an ace-caliber arm ahead of homegrown mid-rotation pieces like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello (not to mention offseason signing Walker Buehler) while allowing them to kick Rafael Devers’s lackluster glove off of third base and into a DH role. Those additions build on a solid group of talent already in place, with players like Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran standing as likely offensive contributors.

Perhaps even more important than this winter’s additions, however, is the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Kristian Campbell is already in the majors and emerging as a potential early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, with fellow top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer also expected to make their big league debuts at some point this year. All three are consensus top-15 prospects in the sport, with Anthony in particular being rated as the sport’s #1 prospect by a number of services. That sort of high-end prospect talent all arriving in the majors simultaneously is quite rare, and affords the club an exceptionally deep positional mix with plenty of potential impact. With that being said, the club does have one potential Achilles’ heel in the bullpen. After relying on an elite tandem of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to close out games last year, the Red Sox are now banking on a strong return from nearly two years away from the mound for Liam Hendriks and a resurgence from Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. If the club’s strong offense and solid rotation can overcome that questionable bullpen, however, they should be in strong position to return to the top of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

After suffering their first losing season in recent memory and selling at the trade deadline last year, the Rays avoided their annual winter of sell-side trades (the Jeffrey Springs deal notwithstanding) and actually made a handful of modest but potentially impactful additions this winter. Arguably the club’s two biggest weaknesses last season were catcher and shortstop, so the additions of Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim figure to go a long way to bring up the floor for the club as they try to get back on track. Jansen and Kim (when the latter returns from the IL) figure to be joined this year by the Rays’ usual suspects on offense with Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and trendy breakout pick Junior Caminero set to serve as anchors of the lineup. Outside of those names, however, the Rays are likely to need big performances from less established pieces like Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda in order to make noise in a crowded AL East.

Fortunately, whatever questions the Rays face on offense are largely avoided on the pitching side of things. The temporary loss of ace Shane McClanahan to open the season hurts the rotation, but the club still features a bevy of solid arms that includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Shane Baz. Each of those arms have the upside of at least a #4 starter, and Rasmussen in particular has flashed the sort of production that could front a rotation over the years. In the bullpen, meanwhile, the club will once again rely on Pete Fairbanks in the ninth inning with a group of interesting arms including Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge also in their bullpen mix. If the club’s offense can get going, it’s not hard to imagine that pitching talent carrying the Rays back into the playoffs this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

The Blue Jays failed in their offseason bid for Juan Soto, and similarly have seemingly come up short in their efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season of club control. That puts plenty of pressure on the Jays to return from the basement of the AL East and compete in what could be their superstar’s last season in town, and Toronto brass answered that pressure by bringing in some notable reinforcements this winter. Anthony Santander offers the sort of big bat to protect Guerrero in the lineup that the Jays lacked last year, Andres Gimenez should greatly improve the club’s defense, Jeff Hoffman looks like a strong replacement for Jordan Romano in the ninth inning, and Max Scherzer (when he returns from the IL) should offer quality innings to a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi last summer.

Even with solid additions like those, however, a lot needs to go right for the Jays if they’re going to get to the top of the AL East this year. Perhaps the most important would be a return to form for Bo Bichette, who endured the worst season of his career last year. A lineup featuring Bichette at his best alongside Guerrero and Santander would go a long way to making this club look like a playoff team, as would a resurgence from veteran righty Kevin Gausman, who took a step back from his previous ace-level seasons with the Blue Jays last year. A strong year on offense from franchise catcher Alejandro Kirk and a repeat of Bowden Francis’s excellent rookie campaign could also serve as X-factors that help the club stay competitive this year.

__________________________________________

With all five clubs making a legitimate effort to compete this year, who will come out on top? Will the Yankees reign supreme once again despite their losses, or will they be successfully challenged by the young, up-and-coming Orioles despite a middling rotation? Can the Red Sox ride their splashy signings and top prospects to the postseason, or will a team like the Rays or even the Blue Jays surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Win The AL East?
New York Yankees 34.70% (4,289 votes)
Boston Red Sox 27.97% (3,458 votes)
Baltimore Orioles 19.61% (2,424 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 12.72% (1,573 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 5.00% (618 votes)
Total Votes: 12,362

Mets Sign Jon Singleton, Niko Goodrum To Minor League Deals

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April 3: Per Robert Murray of FanSided, Marte’s deal is a two-year pact. That could suggest that he’s unlikely to pitch much in 2025 as he recovers from his shoulder surgery.

April 2: The Mets announced today that they’ve signed first baseman Jon Singleton and infielder Niko Goodrum to minor league deals. Additionally, the club has signed right-hander Jose Marte to a minor league deal according to the transactions tracker on Marte’s MLB.com profile page.

Singleton, 33, served as the Astros regular first baseman last year after the club parted ways with Jose Abreu early in the 2024 season. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft by the Phillies, Singleton was shipped to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade and eventually became a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport with the Astros. The club signed Singleton to a pre-debut extension that guaranteed him $10MM over five years during his debut season back in 2014. The deal was viewed as a coup for the Astros at the time, but Singleton unfortunately hit just .171/.290/.331 over two seasons with the Astros before toiling in the minor leagues for a few years and eventually being released in 2018.

At first, it seemed likely that Singleton’s release marked the end of his baseball career. However, the first baseman resurfaced during his age-29 season with a strong showing in the Mexican League and got enough attention that he signed with the Brewers on a minor league deal for the 2022 season. He hit reasonably well at Triple-A for the club and posted even stronger numbers the following season, earning him a call-up back to the majors. He hit just .103/.188/.138 in 11 games for the Brewers, but upon being released signed with the Astros and hit a more respectable (though still subpar) .194/.301/.324 in 25 games for the club.

That performance was enough to earn Singleton his aforementioned shot at the regular first base job in 2024, and he actually started to hit for the first time in his career last year when given that opportunity. In 405 trips to the plate across 119 games, Singleton slashed .234/.321/.386. That slightly better than league average production was enough to convince the Astros to keep Singleton on the roster throughout the offseason, though not enough to stop them from signing Christian Walker to take over regular first base duties. When Singleton hit just .171/.239/.195 in Spring Training, however, Houston had seen enough and decided to cut bait.

Goodrum, meanwhile, has been part of seven MLB seasons so far in his career. The Twins’ second-rounder back in 2010, he made his big league debut in Minnesota back in 2017 but was cut from the club’s roster and ended up signing with the Tigers on a minor league deal that offseason. He went on to put up solid numbers with Detroit over the next four seasons, hitting hit a decent .232/.306/.401 (90 wRC+) in 376 games from 2018 to 2021. His production tapered off in 2020 and 2021, however, as he hit just .203/.282/.350 (75 wRC+) in those final two years in Detroit before he was outrighted off the Tigers’ roster.

In the years since leaving Detroit, Goodrum has appeared in just 28 total MLB games, hitting a paltry .111/.169/.139 in 78 plate appearances between the Astros, Rays, and Angels. When not in the majors, he’s bounced between the Red Sox, Pirates, Orioles, and Padres organizations and even had a brief stint in the KBO league where he slashed .295/.373/.387 in 50 games for the Lotte Giants. San Diego was Goodrum’s most recent stop, and the 33-year-old actually hit quite well in Spring Training as he slashed .278/.519/.444 in 14 games. That solid showing wasn’t enough to earn a roster spot with the Padres, however, and Goodrum returned to free agency where he’s now caught on with the Mets.

As for Marte, the right-hander signed with the Giants out of the Dominican Republic as an amateur and made his pro debut back in 2016. He was traded to the Angels in the deal that sent southpaw Tony Watson to San Francisco a couple of years later, however, and eventually went on to make his big league debut with Anaheim during the 2021 season. Marte was shuttled between Triple-A and the majors over the next four seasons, and his results from 2021 to 2023 were nothing short of disastrous as he posted an 8.14 ERA and 7.61 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work with more walks (28) than strikeouts (27).

Things seemed to click for Marte in 2024, however, as he pitched to a 2.22 ERA in 28 1/3 innings in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League while striking out 28.4% of opponents and walking a more manageable 11.2%. That success translated to the big leagues, as he posted a 2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings, though he only struck out 17.5% of his opponents while walking 12.5%. His season was cut short by a viral infection and shoulder surgery, however, and he found himself outrighted off the Angels’ 40-man roster at the end of the year.

With all three now set to join the Mets at Triple-A, each figures to fill a depth role for the club going forward. Singleton is locked behind Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker on the first base/DH depth chart, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him be the next man up behind Winker as a left-handed part-time option in the case of injury. Goodrum, meanwhile, is a versatile bench piece who can play virtually anywhere on the diamond except for catcher. That’s a particularly useful skillset for the Mets while the versatile Jeff McNeil is on the injured list. As for Marte, it’s unclear whether the righty is recovered from shoulder surgery at this point, but when he returns he could be an interesting, high-upside bullpen option for the Mets at some point this year.

The Opener: Extensions, Brewers, Reds, DFA Resolutions

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After a surprisingly busy Wednesday, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Extension season continues:

Extension season has bled into the regular season this year, and that’s never been more apparent than it was yesterday, when three long-term deals got hammered out: Jackson Merrill and the Padres hammered out a $135MM pact early yesterday morning, while the Red Sox and Kristian Campbell put the finishing touches on a $60MM deal that’s been anticipated since the weekend. The Diamondbacks also got in on the fun with their fourth extension of 2025, agreeing to a $116.5MM contract with franchise face Ketel Marte.

Given their proximity to Opening Day, each of these deals is in some ways more akin to a Spring Training extension, since the sides surely did the majority of the negotiating before the season began. Could other rumored possible extension targets be signed to deals in the coming days? The Phillies were known to have at least some interest in extensions with slugger Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto, while the Blue Jays are of course hoping to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to an extension despite the star’s public indications that he expects to test free agency.

2. Series Preview: Reds @ Brewers

The early days of the 2025 season have been tough on two expected potential contenders for the NL Central crown: the Brewers and Reds. Both clubs are 2-4 through their first six games of the season, with the Reds having suffered back-to-back 1-0 losses against the Rangers entering this series while the Brewers found themselves outscored bye an eye-popping 43-13 margin across three games against the Yankees and Royals from Saturday to Monday. Difficult as the start of the season has been for both clubs, however, one of the two clubs will make some progress the rest of the week as the two face off in a four-game set.

The series kicks off at 6:40pm local time in Milwaukee this evening, with southpaw Nestor Cortes (3.77 ERA in 2024) on the mound for the Brewers as he seeks redemption after surrendering five homers to the Yankees in just two innings during his first start of the year. He’ll be facing a fellow southpaw today, as the Reds are expected to go with Nick Lodolo (4.76 ERA in 2024) after a solid start against San Francisco his first time out. Tomorrow’s game will see veteran Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 2024) take the mound against an as-of-yet unannounced Brewers starter, while Saturday’s game will see Cincinnati’s Brady Singer (3.71 ERA in 2024) square off against Milwaukee’s Elvin Rodriguez (career 9.49 ERA in 37 MLB innings). On Sunday, the clubs will wrap things up as the Reds send swingman Carson Spiers (5.46 ERA in 2024) to the mound opposite Brewers rookie Chad Patrick, who has a 3.18 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of work so far this year.

3. DFA Resolutions expected:

When players are designated for assignment, clubs have one week to either trade the DFA’d player or attempt to pass them through waivers. That seven-day window is closing today for two players who have been in DFA limbo since the start of the season: catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel, and infielder Eguy Rosario. Hummel, 30, is a career .159/.255/.275 hitter in the majors who has bounced between the Diamondbacks, Mariners, and Astros over the years. He was in contention for a spot on Houston’s bench this spring but ultimately lost out on the job when the club opted to promote top prospect Cam Smith to the majors.

As for Rosario, the 25-year-old has spent his entire pro career in the Padres organization this point. He’s gotten just 100 plate appearances over three seasons with the club, but a .245/.283/.500 slash line with five homers, a triple, and seven doubles during that time suggests the versatile infielder has intriguing pop. If Hummel and Rosario go unclaimed on waivers today, their clubs will have the opportunity to outright them to the minor leagues and keep them in the fold as non-roster depth going forward this year. With that being said, Hummel has a previous outright assignment in his career and can reject a second assignment in favor of free agency should he so choose.

Diamondbacks Sign Ketel Marte To Extension

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The Diamondbacks announced a new seven-year contract with star second baseman Ketel Marte. It’s a reported $116.5MM guarantee that comes with $64MM in new money. Marte, who had already been under contract for three seasons, is now signed through 2031. He can opt out of the deal after the 2030 season, when there’ll be at least $11.5MM remaining. There are also $33MM in escalators and performance bonuses for the QC Sports client. Marte receives a five-team no-trade clause, though that’ll become moot when he gets 10-and-5 rights early in the 2026 season.

The contract takes effect this year and breaks down as follows: $14MM in 2025 ($5MM of which is deferred), $15MM in ’26, $12MM in ’27, $20MM in ’28, and $22MMM per season between 2029-30. Each top-three MVP finish would boost the following year’s salary by $3MM; it’d go up by $2MM if he finishes between fourth and seventh in MVP voting. The deal also includes $2.5MM annually from 2026-31 in plate appearance incentives.

The news surely comes as a delight to fans in Arizona. The face of the Diamondbacks franchise first flashed superstar potential back in 2019, when he was an All-Star and finished fourth in NL MVP voting after slashing .329/.389/.592 (150 wRC+) in 144 games. In the years since then, he’s generally been an above-average player but not necessarily a superstar, slashing .275/.347/.462 with a wRC+ of 118 from 2020 to 2023. That narrative changed in 2024, however, as Marte rediscovered his MVP-caliber form during his age-30 season with a phenomenal .292/.372/.560 (151 wRC+) slash line that earned Marte his first career Silver Slugger award, a second All-Star appearance, and a third place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor.

That’s the sort of elite production that makes for a phenomenal building block, so it’s not exactly a surprise that Arizona brass were interested in extending Marte’s stay with the club and making him a Diamondback for life. The club has often been aggressive about extending its top players under Mike Hazen, with this latest deal for Marte standing as the tenth extension agreed upon since he took over baseball operations in fall of 2016. It’s also the fourth of 2025, joining agreements the club reached with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, reliever Justin Martinez, and right-hander Brandon Pfaadt.

More notably, it’s also the third extension of Marte’s career. His first came back in 2018 when he was a pre-arbitration player. The switch-hitter was guaranteed $24MM by that first deal, which ran through the end of his expected team control window but also afforded the Diamondbacks two option years on what otherwise would’ve been Marte’s first two years of free agency. Marte’s second deal came about just before the 2022 season began, ahead of his final year before those options would’ve kicked in. That deal overwrote those two option years and guaranteed Marte $76MM for the 2023-27 seasons, and also included a club option for 2028.

The second deal ended up covering just two seasons, as it has now already been overwritten to extend Marte’s stay in Arizona through at least 2030, with a player option that could push the deal into 2031. Given the fact that Marte was already under team control through the end of his age-34 season, it’s at least somewhat surprising that the Diamondbacks would decide to commit to their second baseman’s mid-30s this far ahead of time. After all, the club very easily could’ve waited to see how Marte would perform over the next two or three seasons before opening discussions with Marte prior to the 2028 season, when they would likely exercise their club option over his services.

With that being said, the deal not only extends Arizona’s years of control over their star, but also restructures his existing contract. Marte was slated to earn $50.8MM over the next three seasons on his existing contract. That number drops to just $41MM with his new deal, saving the club nearly $10MM over the next three seasons and $5MM in 2025 alone. That also does not factor in the $46MM in deferred money in the deal, which cuts down the amount of money owed to Marte in the short-term even further.

That the Diamondbacks would seek a restructured deal with Marte in order to save a bit of money in the short-term is understandable considering that the team is deep into uncharted financial waters. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club opened the 2025 season with a payroll of nearly $187MM. That’s an increase of $24MM over 2024, which was already the highest payroll in franchise history by more than $30MM. The club’s aggressiveness this winter in adding Corbin Burnes and swinging a trade for Josh Naylor was certainly admirable, but it’s long appeared likely that the Diamondbacks were likely stretching the limits of owner Ken Kendrick’s comfort zone.

If Arizona is facing the upper limits of its baseball operations budget, that could also explain the club’s reported insistence on suitors for struggling southpaw Jordan Montgomery eating at least $13MM of his $25MM salary for 2025 in trade talks as well as the club falling short in its pursuit of a top-flight closer this winter. Perhaps this restructured deal with Marte will offer them a bit more breathing room to work with at the trade deadline during an important 2025 season. After the current campaign, Montgomery and Naylor are slated to be joined by Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eugenio Suarez in departing for free agency. That’s a lot of significant players who will need to be re-signed or replaced to avoid a step back in 2026, and it’s possible today’s restructuring of Marte’s deal could help the club fill those upcoming holes as well.

Mike Rodriguez first reported last night that the D-Backs and Marte were working on a new nine-figure contract. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was first on the $116.5MM guarantee, the $46MM in deferrals, the 2031 player option, and the salary structure. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the $11.5MM option value and the $149.5MM maximum after escalators. Piecoro had the escalator specifics.

Image courtesy of Imagn Images.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers were voted as the most likely AL West winner. Next up is a look at the AL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Cleveland Guardians (92-69)

The Guardians surprised the baseball world by not only storming back to the top of the AL Central in Stephen Vogt’s first year replacing Terry Francona as manager in Cleveland, but by pushing past the Astros to secure a playoff bye alongside the Yankees. Though the club ultimately fell to New York in the ALCS, their strong showing inspired plenty of optimism about the club’s future. The offseason saw some major changes come to the organization as Andres Gimenez departed the club in a series of moves that ultimately brought back righty Luis Ortiz. The addition of Ortiz should help bolster a rotation that was the club’s clear weakness last year, as should getting more out of Shane Bieber after he returned to the club in free agency over the offseason.

Aside from that stronger rotation mix and the aforementioned loss of Gimenez, the 2025 Guardians don’t look much different than the 2024 club. Josh Naylor departed via trade but was swiftly replaced with Carlos Santana in his third stint with the club, and the club swapped Tyler Freeman for Nolan Jones just before Opening Day. Meanwhile, Jakob Junis and Paul Sewald add depth to a bullpen that was already baseball’s best last season. A stronger rotation mix should help the Guardians stay at the top of the AL Central this year, though they’ll need strong performances from players like Jones, Brayan Rocchio, and Kyle Manzardo in order to match last year’s output in the lineup without Naylor’s bat and Gimenez’s glove in the fold.

Kansas City Royals (86-76)

After making it back to the playoffs for the first time since their World Series championship in 2015, the Royals stayed busy in the offseason. They retained their strong front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha in the rotation while trading fourth starter Brady Singer to the Reds to land Jonathan India, who has split time between left field and third base for the club so far this year. Meanwhile, the Royals made a splash at the back of their bullpen by signing closer Carlos Estevez to handle the ninth inning, bolstering a relief group that was a big source of frustration last year. Overall, the pitching staff seems to be in an even better place than 2024 with Singer set to be replaced in the rotation by some combination of Kris Bubic, who excelled in a short stint with the bullpen last year, the eventual return of Kyle Wright from the injured list.

Less certain is how the club will stack up on offense. India was the club’s only major addition to the lineup, though swinging a trade for Mark Canha just before Opening Day should raise the floor offensively and bringing in Cavan Biggio could also improve the club’s depth. India and Canha should help to balance out a lineup that was far too reliant on Bobby Witt Jr. last year. Even so, the club will either need Witt to repeat his otherworldly production or significant steps forward from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Franco if they’re going to be even an average offense in 2025, given that last year’s club managed a wRC+ of just 96. Will the club’s modest improvements be enough to take control of the Central?

Detroit Tigers (86-76)

As is a theme throughout the AL Central, the Tigers were relatively quiet this winter. The lineup is largely unchanged from last year, with second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot standing as the club’s only additions of significance. The duo’s right-handed bats should help to balance out a Tigers lineup that leans heavily to the left, but the more significant additions to the Tigers this year are in the rotation. The return of Jack Flaherty after the club traded him to the Dodgers over the summer should give the club an impressive prospective playoff rotation, with Flaherty joining reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, 2024 breakout righty Reese Olson, and perhaps top prospect Jackson Jobe to make what could rival the Royals for the division’s best rotation. Alex Cobb, meanwhile, should add some veteran depth to the rotation and has been extremely effective when healthy in recent years.

Impressive as the rotation mix might be, the Tigers’ lackluster offensive additions mean a lot will need to go right for the club in the lineup if they’re going to make it back to October. Strong, healthy seasons from Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter will be a must, and steps forward from youngsters like Colt Keith and the ever-streaky Spencer Torkelson would go a long way to getting the club back to the postseason. As for the club’s bullpen, little changed outside of the addition of right-hander Tommy Kahnle, so the club will once again need strong performances from pieces like Tyler Holton and Will Vest in 2025. Will all of that be enough to overcome the Royals and Guardians in 2025?

Minnesota Twins (82-80)

After a disappointing season where the club appeared poised to make the postseason before collapsing in dramatic fashion down the stretch, the Twins are more or less running back the same club they put forward in 2024. Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, and Caleb Thielbar all departed the club with reasonable facsimiles of their expected production entering the door in their place when the club signed Ty France, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe. Aside from that trio of modest additions to replace outgoing free agents, the Twins did very little to augment the club this winter. That’s not to say another weak season should be expected, however. On paper, the Twins have long been the most talented club in the AL Central and that figures to once again be the case in 2025.

Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton all have star potential when healthy, though Lewis has already opened the season on the injured list. Brooks Lee (also on the IL) and Matt Wallner provide plenty of upside to the club’s lineup, and steady contributors like Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should help make for a strong offensive nucleus. The rotation, meanwhile, has a solid front three in the form of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober to go along with a handful of interesting back-end options like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax make for a frightening combo at the back of the bullpen, leaving the club without any clear holes. With that being said, health and consistency have always been difficult to come by in Minnesota despite a deep and talented group of players. Will they be able to put it all together in 2025?

Chicago White Sox (41-121)

After the worst season in MLB history, the White Sox did little to inspire optimism about the 2025 season. Arguably, the club is weaker on paper than it was last year after losing Erick Fedde at the trade deadline and Garrett Crochet over the offseason. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery should arrive sometime this year to pick up the slack, and a fully healthy and productive season from Luis Robert Jr. would go a long way to getting the White Sox away from that 120-loss threshold. Even with those potential upsides, however, it would be perhaps the most shocking turnaround in baseball history if this club managed to bring a division title back to the south side of Chicago in 2025.

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The offseason didn’t see any status-quo-altering changes in the AL Central. While the three postseason clubs from last year all made at least some modest additions, the story of the division is not all that dissimilar from 2025. After a 92-win season in 2025, the Guardians’ pitching additions seem likely to be enough to make them a potential favorite as long as Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan continue to play up to lofty expectations, though the additions Detroit and Kansas City made can’t be ignored. The Twins lurk in the background, meanwhile, even after a quiet offseason thanks to their strong in-house group of talent. With four of the division’s five clubs likely to be in the mix for the AL Central crown once again, who do you think is most likely to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Win The AL Central?
Detroit Tigers 30.39% (1,849 votes)
Kansas City Royals 25.97% (1,580 votes)
Cleveland Guardians 23.27% (1,416 votes)
Chicago White Sox 10.52% (640 votes)
Minnesota Twins 9.86% (600 votes)
Total Votes: 6,085

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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After Detroit surprised the baseball world by sneaking into the playoffs off the back of a late-season surge and wound up making it within a game of the ALCS, the club entered the offseason looking to assert itself as a contender but fell short in many of its most significant pursuits.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $67.8MM
Total spending: $77.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Fans in Detroit and many around the game believed that 2024's surprise success would spur the Tigers to act more aggressively this winter than they had during president of baseball operations Scott Harris's previous seasons at the helm. Those expectations made plenty of sense on paper. After all, Detroit had just made the postseason for the first time since 2014 amid a season where they enjoyed a breakout from superstar southpaw Tarik Skubal. He asserted himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, winning both the Cy Young award and the Triple Crown in the American League, but now has just two seasons remaining before he's scheduled to reach free agency.

When the final years of team control over a breakout superstar were combined with an excellent season from Riley Greene, positive signs from other foundational youngsters like Colt Keith and Reese Olson, and a barren payroll that featured less than $40MM in guaranteed salary commitments for 2025, it seemed clear that this offseason was as good of an opportunity as the Tigers could expect to push their chips in and build a World Series contender. That's not how the 2024-25 offseason panned out for the club, however. While the Tigers were involved on at least some level with a number of potentially impactful players on the market, the vast majority of those efforts to acquire impact talent did not pan out.

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The Opener: Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Tucker

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On the heels of a huge extension in San Diego, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Dodgers, Braves streaking:

The reigning World Series champions are off to a phenomenal start, having won their first seven games in a row. After sweeping the Cubs out of Tokyo last month, the Dodgers then swept the Tigers out of Dodger Stadium and since then have taken two of three from the Braves. As noted by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the 7-0 start to the season matches the 1933 Yankees for the strongest start to a season of any reigning World Series champion in history, and is also the Dodgers’ best start to the regular season since they relocated to Los Angeles in 1958.

On the other side of things, Atlanta can’t buy a win. They’re the only club that’s yet to win a game this season, and their nine runs scored across six games is tied for the fewest in the majors. The Dodgers will attempt to keep the good times rolling at 5:38pm local time tonight with lefty Blake Snell (3.12 ERA in 2024) on the mound, while Atlanta will counter with righty Bryce Elder (6.52 ERA in 2024) as they try to stop the bleeding.

2. Padres also streaking:

Phenomenal as the Dodgers’ start to the 2025 campaign has been, they’ve not been able to put away their division rivals. The Padres have gotten off to almost as strong of a start, winning all six of their games to this point in the season. They were the beneficiaries of Atlanta’s struggles for the first four games of the year, and since then have taken the first two games of their series against the Guardians to run up a 6-0 record on the season. They’ll be going for their second consecutive sweep today at 1:10pm local time in San Diego with right-hander Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA in 2024) on the mound. Cleveland, meanwhile, will counter with righty Ben Lively (3.81 ERA in 2024). Fortunately for the Guardians, they’re not in as dire straits as the Braves are after taking two of three in their opening series against the Royals.

3. Tucker looks to continue homer streak:

There’s a fourth noteworthy streak going on in the National League at the moment, although this one isn’t about the club’s records. After scuffling during the Tokyo Series, newly-acquired Cubs star Kyle Tucker has looked more like himself at the plate since the club returned stateside. Overall, he’s hitting an incredible .353/.450/.853 in 40 trips to the plate across eight games. He leads all of baseball with 12 hits, five doubles, 11 RBI, and 29 total bases, but the streak in question has to do with the long ball.

Tucker’s homered in four consecutive games after hitting a long ball off newly-minted A’s starter Luis Severino last night, and he’ll go for a fifth straight homer against A’s lefty Jeffrey Springs at 12:35pm local time in West Sacramento this afternoon. He’d become just the fifth Cubs player in history to have five games in a row with a homer, joining Sammy Sosa in 1998, Ryne Sandberg in 1989, and Hack Wilson in 1928… as well as teammate Michael Busch, who accomplished the feat just last year.

The Opener: Braves, Red Sox, Debuts

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On the heels of some early morning news, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Outfield uncertainty in Atlanta:

Yesterday, the Braves received some tough news when their biggest offseason addition, outfielder Jurickson Profar, was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for PEDs. The 32-year-old will miss the remainder of the first half and be ineligible for the postseason this year due to the suspension. The news leaves the Braves scrambling to fill out an outfield that looked solid entering the year. Ronald Acuna Jr. is still about a month away from returning to action after last year’s torn ACL, which has left Jarred Kelenic to handle right field on an everyday basis. With Kelenic in right, Bryan De La Cuz and recent waiver claim Stuart Fairchild appear most likely to be tasked with handling left field for the time being, though the club did sign outfielder Alex Verdugo late last month and could lean on him once he gets up to speed after missing most of Spring Training.

2. Extension season in Boston:

The other big news yesterday was a report that the Red Sox and left-hander Garrett Crochet have reached an agreement on a six-year extension that guarantees the southpaw $170MM. The news came as something of a shock after the sides reportedly tabled extension talks when the start of the season came and went without an agreement, but Crochet will now put pen to paper on an agreement a week after the regular season begins. The Red Sox have not yet officially announced Crochet’s extension, though that can be expected to happen in relatively short order. With Crochet locked up long-term, the question remains if any other key pieces of the club’s future will land long-term deals of their own. In particular, eyes will be on second baseman Kristian Campbell after reports over the weekend indicated that Campbell’s camp and the Red Sox are deep into discussions regarding an extension for the well-regarded prospect.

3. Harrington, Smith to debut today:

The morning began with some news on the prospect front, as the Pirates are poised to select the contract of right-hander Thomas Harrington ahead of his big league debut against the Rays later today. The 23-year-old is set to take on righty Shane Baz in Tampa at 7:05pm local time this evening, but he’s not the only player scheduled to make his big league debut today. On the south side of Chicago, right-hander Shane Smith is poised to debut against the Twins at 6:40pm local time this evening. The club’s pick in December’s Rule 5 draft is just a few days shy of his 25th birthday and will celebrate by making his first big league start opposite Minnesota right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, a former consensus top-100 prospect who pitched to a 4.17 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 28 starts for the Twins last year.

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