The 2025 draft is just a few days away, and the Nationals hit the jackpot over the winter when they won the draft lottery and were selected to pick first overall despite entering the lottery with just a 10.2% chance of nabbing the top pick. Since then, a disappointing season has led to the dismissal of longtime GM Mike Rizzo, meaning that interim GM Mike DeBartolo will be piloting the organization when it makes this weekend’s crucial pick. With hundreds of players set to be drafted to begin their pro careers in the coming days, who should the Nats stake their future on? A look at some of the top options:
Ethan Holliday
Holliday is an 18-year-old shortstop out of Stillwater HS in Oklahoma. Holliday has long garnered plenty of attention thanks to his family; he’s the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday and the brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday. Will the younger Holliday brother follow in the footsteps of his sibling and be selected first overall? There’s certainly a strong argument for it. Holliday is considered the top prospect in the draft by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
A slugger who stands at a projectable 6’4”, Holliday receives rave reviews for both his batting eye and ability to generate easy power to all fields but does suffer from some swing-and-miss concerns at the plate. While he’s listed as a shortstop, few expect him to remain there long-term given his size and room to grow physically. More optimistic scouts see him as a player who could remain a plus defender at shortstop, while others see a future in the outfield or at first base. Holliday is generally viewed as the consensus top offensive talent in the draft, but his timeline to the majors might not be the best fit for a Nationals team that already has a big-league ready core of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore earning service time in the majors.
Seth Hernandez
A 19-year-old right-hander from Corona HS in California, Hernandez is in many ways a pitching mirror of Holliday. The hurler lacks Holliday’s familial connections to the majors, but has drawn rave reviews from scouts for years and is viewed as a player with all the tools to be a prototypical ace. Hernandez has a four-pitch mix led by a mid-90s fastball that can touch triple-digits and a changeup that’s already universally viewed as a plus offering, alongside a curveball and slider that are both viewed as potentially above average pitches. Aside from Hernandez’s strong stuff, he also sports impressive control for his age and is viewed as having a strong makeup. Ranked as the #2 prospect in the draft by Baseball America and #3 by MLB Pipeline, Hernandez’s ace upside is more than enough to justify the Nationals considering him for the top pick even though he could have a long road to the majors as a prep pitcher.
The consensus top college player available in this draft, Anderson is a 21-year-old left-hander pitching for LSU. Anderson’s fastball typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s and maxes out at 97 mph, but the main draw of his arsenal is his trio of secondary offerings. Both his curveball and slider are viewed as above-average pitches, and while his changeup garners more mixed reviews, some scouts view it as the most impressive secondary in his arsenal and all agree it at least has the potential to be an average offering that helps keep right-handed hitters honest. Anderson also features above-average control and is viewed as a high-floor arm likely to be a starter in the big leagues long-term.
The fact that he’s already had Tommy John surgery is a potential red flag, although some teams may not be especially bothered by that in a sport where elbow surgery is increasingly becoming the expectation for pitchers. The #2 prospect in the draft according to MLB Pipeline and #4 according to Baseball America, Anderson is viewed as having the same ace-level upside as Hernandez but could be much quicker to the majors. That could be attractive to the Nationals, especially if they end up opting to go under-slot with their first pick to take bigger swings later in the draft.
Other Options
While the aforementioned trio of prospects figure to get the most attention this weekend, they aren’t the only players the Nationals could feasibly consider selecting first overall. Eli Willits is a prep shortstop who would be the youngest first-overall pick in history if selected, but Baseball America views him as the #3 talent in the entire draft and his well-rounded profile could make him an attractive under-slot option for the Nats. Jamie Arnold is a lefty hurler at Florida State who offers a more impressive fastball than Anderson, though he has just three pitches and hasn’t needed to use his changeup much as an amateur. Aiva Arquette is a shortstop at Oregon State and is viewed as the consensus top college bat in the draft, but is seen as having far less upside than someone like Holliday or even Willits despite confidence in his ability to stick at shortstop.
Who do MLBTR readers think the Nationals should take with the top pick in this year’s draft? Have your say in the poll below:
They should take anyone but Ethan Holliday. He needs to go the Rockies at #4.
We all need a Holliday.
It would be so nice.
Madonna in the room?
Doyle needs the rest of the season off
I agree. He should be placed on the bereavement list for the rest of the year and take his wife somewhere and go relax and try and work through the loss of a child. I know people are supposed to show up and work, but when you lose a child, even before it is born, you just cannot maintain your normal life after a couple of days.
Doyle is 8 for 22 in July with a homer.
He and his wife went through a lot, but, at least professionally, he might be bouncing back now.
I agree he seems to be in a decent spot right now, but my comment was more for the person than the player. Even if manages to overcome and he becomes the NL MVP, it wouldn’t matter. He should be with his wife instead of out on the road. Just my opinion.
Doyles a tough dude lotta respect for him to walk back into that locker room at all despite the lack of talent around him period. He deserves a parade. Colorado no not at all. go with without him baseball is better than this but Colorado definitely isn’t in the least justifying ticket sales here.
How often do you get the #1 pick? Go for highest ceiling. Ethan Holliday. Angels pick Kade Anderson please.
Highest ceiling is pie in the sky thinking. You should always go with highest floor. Anything after that is bonus.
All the teams should pass on him and let the Orioles take him so he and Jackson can play together. As an orioles fan, I approve of this.
I want them to pick Holliday just so the Angels don’t have to be given tons of shade for not picking him when they grab Seth Hernandez.
I agree kellin, Seth would be the pick for the Angels. Simply because they won’t be picking 2nd again any time soon, so might as well gamble on the highest upside pitcher, not like in the past, and the most big league ready.
The Angels are picking Kade Anderson.
The first reason is that he is ready to pitch in the Majors next year.
The second reason is that his name is Anderson and the Angels need to get all the Andersons on their team
Hopefully they leave Anderson for the Angels.
More Anderson Angels!
Garrett Anderson was a great player for a while when he was with the Angels.
From what I have heard, if it is anyone but Ethan Holiday, people will be shocked.
Steve Stephens’ official prediction is that they will draft Kade Anderson but the best player from the class will be Josh Hammond or Gavin Fien
It hath been spoken
Preach Reverend! Lol
The correct answer is “Your Mom.”
Now who’s gunna do my laundry and fix my meatloaf…?
The least projectable sport for drafting decisions. Seems like Nats struggle developing SPs, so perhaps Anderson from LSU has had a lot of the work done for them.
Heywood Jablowmee
stands at a projectable 6’4”
I was hoping Ethan Holliday’s middle name was Edwards, but, alas, it’s Smith. “That’ll be the day!”
They should take the highest value/ceiling player possible. The time it takes them to get to the majors isn’t important. You can always trade a long term pick for MLB ready talent.
I voted for Ethan Holliday. I hope he turns out to be as good advertised in 5 years maybe less depending on his development
If the Nats are serious about contending in the next couple of years, they should draft a college pitcher who can contribute in that timeframe. Loading up just on redundant position prospects leaves you where the Orioles are now.
Always draft the best talent rather than for a need, you can always make a trade.
Yeah, you don’t want back-to-back Post Season births because of good drafts like the Orioles, that’d definitely suck for the Nationals. I hope they take your advise and cut against industry consensus talent and do those own things! What do professionals know anyway…
Willits is the best player in this draft. Aside from power, he has a plus grade in every category. He knows how to hit, too, so he could potentially advance quickly for his age.
Holliday to STL or OSU.
To the Beavers, it is. Holl-i-day.
Yeah he’s not making it to Uncle Josh lol
I personally prefer to avoid investing (a very early pick) in pitchers unless I think they’re already big league caliber (i.e. Skenes). That *might* be true of Anderson or Arnold, but I don’t personally believe it–and it’s certainly not true of Hernandez.
I’m also a big proponent of college over high school, but much of that relates to my lack of access to quality high school coverage. I might feel differently if I had team resources. For that reason, I’m inclined to want Arquette over Holliday.
“Holliday is generally viewed as the consensus top offensive talent in the draft, but his timeline to the majors might not be the best fit for a Nationals team that already has a big-league ready core”
Drafting for need or to fit a timeline instead of BPA in a baseball draft is insane thinking and will lead you to become a perpetual joke the likes of teams like the Angels and Marlins. This is not the NBA or NFL.
I’m doubling down on insane. Take the best player.
The difference is they could easily have Anderson or another college lefty rated similarly to Holliday. In that kind of situation, system fit is a very reasonable tiebreaker.
Drafting for need at the big league level is insane. However, drafting for need of your FARM makes sense. If 3 of your top 5 prospects are infielders, you would be insane to draft another infielder. Yeah, you could move him, but why take that gamble when you could draft someone else at another position. Would you rather take the guy you view as #2 in the entire draft or take the risk that your #1 can adapt to another position and still maintain that #1 status? The difference between ANY of the top 5 players in the draft is completely subjective and quite frankly negligible. Take the guy that fits YOUR system the best rather than the guy that some sportswriter thinks is 0.5% better in a vacuum.
Where were you when the Red Sox drafted 3 SS’s with their #1 picks in a row?
already having TJS should be a plus
Going 1-5 I’ve got:
Anderson
Holliday
Hernandez
Doyle
Willits
That being said I think Washington should take Holliday.
IF the Nats had some patience the Hernandez kid is the pick…his ceiling is silly only 19 and what he’s doing now…Christ he has grown into his baseball body yet….
But I think they go Anderson who I also love is a more ready pitcher for NOW…
Ceiling not as high as Hernandez …
U seriously can’t go wrong with either one…
Holliday shouldn’t even be a thought he’s not a generational player …don’t get me wrong the kid we will a star but u always take a front line ACE over a positional player stud…IMO
Especially when the Nats need starting pitching…and have some pretty good young positional players…
Go Pitching and Go Hernandez!!!
Just let Holliday fall to Colorado with the 4th pick. Atleast give their actual fans something
Why is Ethan Holliday ranked #9 with a bat of 20/40?
There are some alarming, pause-giving indicators here. Holliday is very often late getting to pitches on the outer third of the zone. His swing is super long and makes it tough for Holliday to pull fastballs at all, which is a red flag at this level. He struck out a lot on the showcase circuit, posting a pretty scary swinging strike rate, with more whiffs than balls in play.
-Yikes! Big red flags. Don’t draft him!
^^^^ this take is the stuff that gets scouts canned for NOT drafting players. Signed former Rockies scout. Cool…let him fall. He’s 6’4 lefty and built like his Dad…has the DNA. Hes the player the Atlanta Braves used to dominate with in player development. You put your talent in projection and your OWN organizations capacity to develop him.
A college pitcher to team up with Gore
The Nats should definitely go with Kade Anderson, but if they want to go well below slot, don’t count out Jamie Arnold. They could save $2M+ by signing Arnold with the #1 pick and use that money for an over slot selection in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. That’s what Boston did when they signed Roman Anthony with the 79th pick in the draft. The went well under slot in the first round and then paid Roman Anthony $2.5M to sign with them in the late 2nd round. That was first round money paid for the 79th pick and I’d say it has worked out quite well so far.
Holliday has pretty good genes in him, his dad was a fantastic player, saw plenty of Matt when he was a Cardinal.
I voted Holliday for the Nationals. Angels get the second pick? They probably go after Seth Hernandez.
Let’s see what Getz does for the White Sox with the the tenth pick…