The 2025 draft is just a few days away, and the Nationals hit the jackpot over the winter when they won the draft lottery and were selected to pick first overall despite entering the lottery with just a 10.2% chance of nabbing the top pick. Since then, a disappointing season has led to the dismissal of longtime GM Mike Rizzo, meaning that interim GM Mike DeBartolo will be piloting the organization when it makes this weekend’s crucial pick. With hundreds of players set to be drafted to begin their pro careers in the coming days, who should the Nats stake their future on? A look at some of the top options:
Ethan Holliday
Holliday is an 18-year-old shortstop out of Stillwater HS in Oklahoma. Holliday has long garnered plenty of attention thanks to his family; he’s the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday and the brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday. Will the younger Holliday brother follow in the footsteps of his sibling and be selected first overall? There’s certainly a strong argument for it. Holliday is considered the top prospect in the draft by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
A slugger who stands at a projectable 6’4”, Holliday receives rave reviews for both his batting eye and ability to generate easy power to all fields but does suffer from some swing-and-miss concerns at the plate. While he’s listed as a shortstop, few expect him to remain there long-term given his size and room to grow physically. More optimistic scouts see him as a player who could remain a plus defender at shortstop, while others see a future in the outfield or at first base. Holliday is generally viewed as the consensus top offensive talent in the draft, but his timeline to the majors might not be the best fit for a Nationals team that already has a big-league ready core of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore earning service time in the majors.
Seth Hernandez
A 19-year-old right-hander from Corona HS in California, Hernandez is in many ways a pitching mirror of Holliday. The hurler lacks Holliday’s familial connections to the majors, but has drawn rave reviews from scouts for years and is viewed as a player with all the tools to be a prototypical ace. Hernandez has a four-pitch mix led by a mid-90s fastball that can touch triple-digits and a changeup that’s already universally viewed as a plus offering, alongside a curveball and slider that are both viewed as potentially above average pitches. Aside from Hernandez’s strong stuff, he also sports impressive control for his age and is viewed as having a strong makeup. Ranked as the #2 prospect in the draft by Baseball America and #3 by MLB Pipeline, Hernandez’s ace upside is more than enough to justify the Nationals considering him for the top pick even though he could have a long road to the majors as a prep pitcher.
The consensus top college player available in this draft, Anderson is a 21-year-old left-hander pitching for LSU. Anderson’s fastball typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s and maxes out at 97 mph, but the main draw of his arsenal is his trio of secondary offerings. Both his curveball and slider are viewed as above-average pitches, and while his changeup garners more mixed reviews, some scouts view it as the most impressive secondary in his arsenal and all agree it at least has the potential to be an average offering that helps keep right-handed hitters honest. Anderson also features above-average control and is viewed as a high-floor arm likely to be a starter in the big leagues long-term.
The fact that he’s already had Tommy John surgery is a potential red flag, although some teams may not be especially bothered by that in a sport where elbow surgery is increasingly becoming the expectation for pitchers. The #2 prospect in the draft according to MLB Pipeline and #4 according to Baseball America, Anderson is viewed as having the same ace-level upside as Hernandez but could be much quicker to the majors. That could be attractive to the Nationals, especially if they end up opting to go under-slot with their first pick to take bigger swings later in the draft.
Other Options
While the aforementioned trio of prospects figure to get the most attention this weekend, they aren’t the only players the Nationals could feasibly consider selecting first overall. Eli Willits is a prep shortstop who would be the youngest first-overall pick in history if selected, but Baseball America views him as the #3 talent in the entire draft and his well-rounded profile could make him an attractive under-slot option for the Nats. Jamie Arnold is a lefty hurler at Florida State who offers a more impressive fastball than Anderson, though he has just three pitches and hasn’t needed to use his changeup much as an amateur. Aiva Arquette is a shortstop at Oregon State and is viewed as the consensus top college bat in the draft, but is seen as having far less upside than someone like Holliday or even Willits despite confidence in his ability to stick at shortstop.
Who do MLBTR readers think the Nationals should take with the top pick in this year’s draft? Have your say in the poll below:
They should take anyone but Ethan Holliday. He needs to go the Rockies at #4.
We all need a Holliday.
It would be so nice.
Madonna in the room?
Doyle needs the rest of the season off
I agree. He should be placed on the bereavement list for the rest of the year and take his wife somewhere and go relax and try and work through the loss of a child. I know people are supposed to show up and work, but when you lose a child, even before it is born, you just cannot maintain your normal life after a couple of days.
Doyle is 8 for 22 in July with a homer.
He and his wife went through a lot, but, at least professionally, he might be bouncing back now.
I agree he seems to be in a decent spot right now, but my comment was more for the person than the player. Even if manages to overcome and he becomes the NL MVP, it wouldn’t matter. He should be with his wife instead of out on the road. Just my opinion.
Doyles a tough dude lotta respect for him to walk back into that locker room at all despite the lack of talent around him period. He deserves a parade. Colorado no not at all. go with without him baseball is better than this but Colorado definitely isn’t in the least justifying ticket sales here.
How often do you get the #1 pick? Go for highest ceiling. Ethan Holliday. Angels pick Kade Anderson please.
Highest ceiling is pie in the sky thinking. You should always go with highest floor. Anything after that is bonus.
it may be Pie in the Sky… but you got the #1 pick. How often does that happen? It’s a gamble yes, but shoot for the moon (Holliday or Hernandez). Roll the dice for a possible future Hall of Famer or place the safer bet, (although not a guarantee either) for a #3 starter in your rotation (which is what I hear to expect out of Anderson, Doyle, Arnold.)
EVERY draft pick is a possible future Hall of Famer. Only 4 overall #1 picks are in the HOF, and one of them is Harold Baines who has gotten more flak for being in the Hall than anyone in recent years. So it is far less than “not a guarantee.” It is highly improbable.
How can you know that holliday has the highest ceiling when he is coming from high school?
Very good question. For that matter, how do they even calculate ceilings? Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick. Do you think anyone had his ceiling as first ballot HOFer? Mike Trout busted through his ceiling and then some. Why else would he have been a late first round pick? And there are countless other examples.
In other words, it’s a crapshoot. Hit or miss. All I am saying is you don’t know how a high school player will do against college players or professionals.
Exactly. And honestly you don’t know how a college player will adjust to a wood bat either. It seems like a minor adjustment, but some guys cannot make the transition.
Konnor griffin says hold my beer
All the teams should pass on him and let the Orioles take him so he and Jackson can play together. As an orioles fan, I approve of this.
Or they trade Jackson to whoever drafts Ethan. Spare them both.
I want them to pick Holliday just so the Angels don’t have to be given tons of shade for not picking him when they grab Seth Hernandez.
I agree kellin, Seth would be the pick for the Angels. Simply because they won’t be picking 2nd again any time soon, so might as well gamble on the highest upside pitcher, not like in the past, and the most big league ready.
The Angels are picking Kade Anderson.
The first reason is that he is ready to pitch in the Majors next year.
The second reason is that his name is Anderson and the Angels need to get all the Andersons on their team
Halos should pick Hernandez, but I fear they do not have the confidence (or recent track record) in their pitching development to turn him into a legit ace. So I believe they will go with the safer pick. Anderson or Doyle.
Hopefully they leave Anderson for the Angels.
More Anderson Angels!
Garrett Anderson was a great player for a while when he was with the Angels.
From what I have heard, if it is anyone but Ethan Holiday, people will be shocked.
Multiple mocks from major sources have them on anderson lately. Idk if people will be that shocked.
The correct answer is “Your Mom.”
Now who’s gunna do my laundry and fix my meatloaf…?
The least projectable sport for drafting decisions. Seems like Nats struggle developing SPs, so perhaps Anderson from LSU has had a lot of the work done for them.
He also could become an improvement of Elijah green which is not saying much.
Honestly, Mario Mendoza would be an improvement over Green.
It’s true. I am thinking ruttledge – pretty much a bust. There’s also Cavalli – very injury prone and hit very hard recently. Also, denaburg – got badly hurt and is either a punter or field goal kicker. A very rich college student.
Heywood Jablowmee
stands at a projectable 6’4”
I was hoping Ethan Holliday’s middle name was Edwards, but, alas, it’s Smith. “That’ll be the day!”
“That’ll be the Day when you say good bye
That’ll be the Day When you make me cry
You say you’re gonna leave me well you know that’s a lie
‘Cause That’ll be the Day when I die”
-Buddy Holly and Jerry Allison
Is that what you meant?
They should take the highest value/ceiling player possible. The time it takes them to get to the majors isn’t important. You can always trade a long term pick for MLB ready talent.
I voted for Ethan Holliday. I hope he turns out to be as good advertised in 5 years maybe less depending on his development
If the Nats are serious about contending in the next couple of years, they should draft a college pitcher who can contribute in that timeframe. Loading up just on redundant position prospects leaves you where the Orioles are now.
Always draft the best talent rather than for a need, you can always make a trade.
Yeah, you don’t want back-to-back Post Season births because of good drafts like the Orioles, that’d definitely suck for the Nationals. I hope they take your advise and cut against industry consensus talent and do those own things! What do professionals know anyway…
Yes I bet the Orioles wouldn’t love to have a couple better pitchers right about now. Maybe their window wouldn’t have been one of the shortest in MLB history.
Mets — Interesting take, so I had a look at the drafts of the rebuild years for the O’s, just for SP that would, as of today, be considered TOR arms the Orioles could have in the rotation as of today. (1st and 2nd round picks since it’s about who they should have drafted vs. who they did draft playing at MLB).
2019 — George Kirby (20th overall)
2020 — Garrett Crochet (11th overall)
2021 — none
2022 — none
2023 — none
2024 — none
So, if the Orioles didn’t draft Adley Rutchsman (or Bobby Witt Jr!), they could have drafted George Kirby.
Career 7.2 bWAR for George Kirby vs. career 14.6 bWAR for Adley Rutschman.
Now, Garrett Crochet v. Heston Kjerstad, well, your point has A/singular leg to stand on.
I’m sure you get the point…your SP argument don’t hunt. Drafting early pitching is a mess of failures for quick (3-4 years) development.
Drafting even a HS bat at the top of the draft has faster results than the Pitching. If the Nats want a quick add to the MLB team, they need a Paul Skenes or a Bat, otherwise it’s a massive crap shoot.
(Notes: Orioles obviously could not have drafted Paul Skenes; 2019 draft saw Seth Johnson go with the 40th pick to TB…the Orioles picked Gunnar Henderson 42nd. Elias trades for Seth Johnson couple years later, saying at the time of the trade ‘we thought Seth would drop to us in the draft’ …so then no Gunnar! (O’s traded Seth to Philadelphia last year)).
Who is on the team from the 23 or 24 draft? Not sure why you felt compelled to use those years. Crochet is a perfect example. The Orioles went to many years drafting position players and didn’t realize that at some point you need to even it out especially after hitting on other position players. The original poster point runs the same way. They have hit on Wood, Abram’s and in their plans Crews. Along with other pieces. Now they want their staff to be in par with their offensive upside and not just have offensive upside. Any organization that gets in the habit of drafting to many position players or vice versa puts a ceiling on what they could be.
Mets — The reason for 23/24 drafts were to the Original posters point…
highflyball posted “If the Nats are serious about contending in the next couple of years, they should draft a college pitcher who can contribute in that timeframe.”
Given that Skenes and Crochet are the Exceptions, not the Rule, for drafting Pitching in first 2 rounds of the past 6 drafts years…I believe ‘highflyball’s’ acertion/point/thought to be… statistically outside of a reasonable claim. Not impossible…just really unlikely.
As for what the Orioles did, they do draft pitching…just not in the first couple rounds. Pitching is so volatile in development, that using early picks on pitching is low percentage success.
Furthermore, the Nats/Expos have 3 of their top 5 prospects as Pitchers (and thus closer to helping the MLB club faster than a 2025 drafted pitcher).
The Nats would/could be competitive next year by just making a few moves in free agency. I would say they are closer to competing at a full time basis than the Orioles because of the pitching prospects and current pitchers they have. The Orioles are going to have to start shopping the few pieces they have before they lose them in free agency. They really have limited options on getting pitching with a depleted farm system and limited resources. Henderson( like Soto was) could be shopped next year to get a max return on his value. That leaves a core of Westburg, Holliday, Cowser and potentially Bassalo. Not the gravy train of talent the Orioles were claiming to have.
Ha, now that’s a riot! The Orioles have to sell off??!! No pitching?? Bradish ans Grayson already on staff (the same that were pitching in both ’23 & ’24), and they added Rogers last year (sub 2.00 ERA through 6 starts this year…pitches today).
Adley and Gunnar are “just” controllable for 2 & 3 more years…but Cowser, Westberg, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and Basallo are 4+ years of control.
Yeah, good read…better blow it up rather than improve over the next 3-6 years.
Nats closer?! They arent even better then a terrible Orioles team this year!!…the same Orioles team that’s proven the previous 2 years to be a post season team!!
Missed it by a mile there.
The Nationals had a longer rebuild because their farm was barren, It started in 2016 when the trades were taking those mid level minor leaguers out of the system as well as slower developing pieces like Giolito the drafts at the back of the class for an extended time emptied the bottom level and viola long rebuild. In addition they ran into some real health issues with the return pieces and Gore in particular was still not a finished pitcher so he also arrived behind schedule. Crews was the first high profile pick to arrive on time from when he was projected and James wood was the lynch pin that held the fans in seats long enough to get us to this point this is like 2010. Talent is arriving and hasn’t gelled yet.
Nobody was born. It’s spelled berths.
Ex-Orioles guys running the Nats drafts. Minus the bevy of picks the Orioles always seem to have.
Willits is the best player in this draft. Aside from power, he has a plus grade in every category. He knows how to hit, too, so he could potentially advance quickly for his age.
Holliday to STL or OSU.
To the Beavers, it is. Holl-i-day.
Yeah he’s not making it to Uncle Josh lol
Ohio State would love to have him!
I don’t think you mean ohio state.
I personally prefer to avoid investing (a very early pick) in pitchers unless I think they’re already big league caliber (i.e. Skenes). That *might* be true of Anderson or Arnold, but I don’t personally believe it–and it’s certainly not true of Hernandez.
I’m also a big proponent of college over high school, but much of that relates to my lack of access to quality high school coverage. I might feel differently if I had team resources. For that reason, I’m inclined to want Arquette over Holliday.
Arquette is a better bet imo.
“Holliday is generally viewed as the consensus top offensive talent in the draft, but his timeline to the majors might not be the best fit for a Nationals team that already has a big-league ready core”
Drafting for need or to fit a timeline instead of BPA in a baseball draft is insane thinking and will lead you to become a perpetual joke the likes of teams like the Angels and Marlins. This is not the NBA or NFL.
I’m doubling down on insane. Take the best player.
Well Mr Double down this is the Parity draft there is no real consensus on “Best Player” This is the year to address organizational needs
The difference is they could easily have Anderson or another college lefty rated similarly to Holliday. In that kind of situation, system fit is a very reasonable tiebreaker.
Drafting for need at the big league level is insane. However, drafting for need of your FARM makes sense. If 3 of your top 5 prospects are infielders, you would be insane to draft another infielder. Yeah, you could move him, but why take that gamble when you could draft someone else at another position. Would you rather take the guy you view as #2 in the entire draft or take the risk that your #1 can adapt to another position and still maintain that #1 status? The difference between ANY of the top 5 players in the draft is completely subjective and quite frankly negligible. Take the guy that fits YOUR system the best rather than the guy that some sportswriter thinks is 0.5% better in a vacuum.
Where were you when the Red Sox drafted 3 SS’s with their #1 picks in a row?
I’m not saying it has never happened. The Giants picked catcher Patrick Bailey in the first round one year after selecting catcher Joey Bart with the #2 overall pick. Obviously it has happened before many times. I am just saying that it is a very defeatist mindset to do that. In your best case scenario, you would need to trade at least one of them. But by picking two (or three) in a row, you are in essence telling everyone that you screwed up with the first pick. To me, that is not the impression that I want to give. Even if it is true.
I have for the last few years been commenting we are in the golden age of the SS. Ironically this limits their draft rankings with so much other raw talent out their at the Position. At the start of 2024 3 of the top 5 players in MLB Pipelines Top 100 were SS the top 20 was similarly heavy. This kind of talent depth also made SS one of the first positions players were moved away from in their development, many ging to 2nd base if the arm was an issue. But many who stuck are Just now hitting their stride.
By Contrast the previously well stocked position of first base has become a prospect desert. Sibling in power hitter Position 3rd base has suffered as well. Both of these positions have maintained the power level But prospect average has suffered and the prospects at these positions are much more strikeout prone than ten years ago when the position was strong..
My point is taking an infielder with a three year ramp up read HS player] and a shapeable attitude. may not be a death knell for a GM but a reputation builder and a smart move. You will not have to put out as much bonus for this player not saying he wouldn’t cost more than slot] as you would for Kade in a year where there is not a lot of separation at the top of the draft class
already having TJS should be a plus
Going 1-5 I’ve got:
Anderson
Holliday
Hernandez
Doyle
Willits
That being said I think Washington should take Holliday.
I pretty much agree with you. Even with Washington picking 10th or 11th next year, there will be another Anderson, Arnold, and Doyle…and the year after that, and the year after that. Skenes and Strasburg are outliers.
IF the Nats had some patience the Hernandez kid is the pick…his ceiling is silly only 19 and what he’s doing now…Christ he has grown into his baseball body yet….
But I think they go Anderson who I also love is a more ready pitcher for NOW…
Ceiling not as high as Hernandez …
U seriously can’t go wrong with either one…
Holliday shouldn’t even be a thought he’s not a generational player …don’t get me wrong the kid we will a star but u always take a front line ACE over a positional player stud…IMO
Especially when the Nats need starting pitching…and have some pretty good young positional players…
Go Pitching and Go Hernandez!!!
Just let Holliday fall to Colorado with the 4th pick. Atleast give their actual fans something
Do you think he wants to go to Colorado? I would stay in school.
Why is Ethan Holliday ranked #9 with a bat of 20/40?
There are some alarming, pause-giving indicators here. Holliday is very often late getting to pitches on the outer third of the zone. His swing is super long and makes it tough for Holliday to pull fastballs at all, which is a red flag at this level. He struck out a lot on the showcase circuit, posting a pretty scary swinging strike rate, with more whiffs than balls in play.
-Yikes! Big red flags. Don’t draft him!
^^^^ this take is the stuff that gets scouts canned for NOT drafting players. Cool..let him fall. He’s 6’4 lefty and built like his Dad…has the DNA. Hes the player the Atlanta Braves used to dominate with in player development. You put your talent in projection and your OWN organizations capacity to develop him. Signed – Former Rockies pro scout
@Dock_Elvis
No wonder you’re a former Rockies pro scout. Thinking he’s similar to his dad? Yikes!
Lack of a hit tool is the biggest red flag for me.
Elijah Green had a million physical tools and a former NFL playing dad. Doesn’t matter since he can’t make contact with the baseball.
He has been a total dud but i think he still got 6 million
Total bust. Sent back to the FCL. Jayson Werth recruited to try and fix him.
He IS a Hs Player. I have seen very few 18 YO players who are fully developed at the plate. Bat speed issues at that age can often be addressed by tweaking their approach at the plate. This is something players become a lot more open to once the competition becomes more challenging and the mature emotionally enough to look at their talents more realistically
A college pitcher to team up with Gore
The Nats should definitely go with Kade Anderson, but if they want to go well below slot, don’t count out Jamie Arnold. They could save $2M+ by signing Arnold with the #1 pick and use that money for an over slot selection in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. That’s what Boston did when they signed Roman Anthony with the 79th pick in the draft. The went well under slot in the first round and then paid Roman Anthony $2.5M to sign with them in the late 2nd round. That was first round money paid for the 79th pick and I’d say it has worked out quite well so far.
Yeah, following the Orioles model of previous draft success, the Red Sox too were able to leverage a fantastic draft by duplicating the Orioles strategy.
The Nationals would be wise to consider following the Orioles as well, in either getting savings early for other latter picks, or, they could follow the Orioles and draft a Holliday first overall!
For real though, rivalry smack aside, draft Holliday. The pedigree, in this instance, is a very large component to why he should go 1 overall. These brothers are mentally well ahead in their baseball acumen than others. Power lefty, with that lineage?! Jackson RACED through the minors. Drafted at 18…in the Show by 20!
Besides….it’ll make the DC v. Baltimore thing sooo much more fun!
Holliday has pretty good genes in him, his dad was a fantastic player, saw plenty of Matt when he was a Cardinal.
I voted Holliday for the Nationals. Angels get the second pick? They probably go after Seth Hernandez.
Let’s see what Getz does for the White Sox with the the tenth pick…
Preach Reverend! Lol
I picked Anderson because just thinking part of the changes coming might include a player development system overhaul. So just went with the college guy who is less of a development project.
Ethan fits the time line best. But Kade would have a more immediate impact on the franchise who’s priorities of Pitching and Defense have served them well over the years Bringing another strong Starting pitcher into the pipeline at a time when Cavelli is just starting to show his seasoning and resilience and the return of Josiah to finish his development Susannah knocking on the AAA door by the ens of this season & Sykora knocking MLB door as he becomes more consistent would spread the pitching prospect timeline through the who pipeline when augmented with this years draft.
But the reall issue down on the form has been keeping the position player pipeline stocked. And all though I did not vote before commenting, I am leaning towards Ethan for that reason. It has been a while since we have had a Position player come up whom e had drafted. While we have restocked our draft pick cupboard, the position prospect player status is in far worse shape than the pitching & that should be addressed in the first 4 rounds of the draft with both college prospects and HS Lads the balance between Rookie League and AAA [or more accurately the timeline for these players] needs to be spread out with enough value towards the bottom level to assist in trades to fill out the talent at the MLB level without drying out the pipeline
So over all I would say Ethan is the slightly better pick than Kade but I have no problem with taking Kade first
Susannah has been out for almost two months now. Cavalli has been bombed in his last 2 starts.
I am aware of those things but Suze is progressing and Cavelli is learning and has already cut his teeth in MLB. Cade does have the stuff to succeeded he just needs more consistnecy
“It has been a while since we have had a Position player come up whom e had drafted”
Young
Crews
House
Lile
Young was 4 or five years ago
Crews was the player referenced
House had a cup of coffee then also went through the 4 year education in the minors
Lile- the jury is still out despite some good signs… again consistency is the thing here.
Wood and Crews still stand as the only two major prospects to come up from what is just now getting to a healthy farm system… and it is still not what I would call stocked. But let’s see what the draft brings this year. It wasn’t until the Harper draft that the Nats turned the organizational corner last time
BTW good to read ya Papa
The Nationals’ rotation is going to need a complete overhaul aside from Gore, and they only control him two more seasons. As much as I’d like to see Holliday develop, they need to take one of the pitchers.
Eli Willits continues to get overlooked and he should be the pick, especially now with Rizzo out. As a Nats fan that’s who I want to hear get called first tomorrow.
Another high school player. Could be very good but also risky.
I have no idea who should go first. All I know for certain is there will be a great big bunch of brand new millionaires once the contracts are signed.
Not all of them will .make it to The Show, but I wish them all a happy life
If you said it, so it will be.
Nats fan here hoping to hear Willits called he’s going to be the best of the bunch
Maybe so but I just hope it doesn’t take four years.
Good Call @DM I was a bit surprised thin king we were leaning Ethan or Kade