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Diamondbacks Sign Casey Kelly To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks have signed right-hander Casey Kelly to a minor league deal, according to the transactions log on Kelly’s MLB.com profile page.

Kelly, 35, was a first-round pick by the Red Sox back in 2008. He quickly rose to minor league stardom, becoming a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport before he was traded to the Padres alongside future All-Star Anthony Rizzo in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez. Kelly made his big league debut with San Diego just a year later, though he struggled to a 6.21 ERA in 29 innings of work across six starts in that first big league cup of coffee. Tommy John surgery in 2013 forced him to stay away from the big league mound for quite some time after that, however, and upon his return in 2015 he was torched to the tune of a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work that brought the Padres chapter of his career to a disappointing end.

Kelly bounced through the Braves, Cubs, and Giants organizations over the next couple of seasons, even getting a brief look in the majors with Atlanta during the 2016 season, but it wasn’t until the 2018 campaign in San Francisco that the right-hander found success in the majors. That success was fairly limited, as Kelly pitched just 23 2/3 frames at the highest level that year, but his 3.04 ERA was the first above-average showing in the majors of his career. It even earned him some attention on the other side of the world, as Kelly went on to depart the Giants organization in favor of joining the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins.

Kelly’s stint in Korea ultimately lasted six seasons, and saw him put together an impressive overseas career. The right-hander pitched to a 3.25 ERA overall in 989 1/3 innings of work for the LG Twins in parts of six seasons from 2019 to 2024. Those first four seasons were particularly impressive, as Kelly made at least 27 starts in each of them with ERAs ranging from 2.54 to 3.32 and solid peripheral numbers to match. Unfortunately, Kelly started to show signs of decline in 2023 that brought about the end of his KBO career in 2024 after he struggled to a 4.51 ERA in 19 starts for the LG Twins that led the club to cut him from the team in July of last year.

After being cut loose in Korea, Kelly made his way back into stateside ball with the Reds on a minor league deal. He managed to get called up to the majors for a brief stint down the stretch last year, his first stint in the majors in more than half a decade. He pitched just 5 1/3 innings for the Reds last year, surrendering three runs on three hits (one homer) and a walk while striking out four. The right-hander was then outrighted to Triple-A Louisville in August and elected minor league free agency back in October. Now, Kelly appears likely to serve as non-roster depth for the Diamondbacks headed into 2025. He’s got plenty of competition on the club’s pitching depth chart, with Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry among the pitchers just on the 40-man roster who could vie for a long relief role with the club this season.

Rockies Reportedly Place Justin Lawrence On Waivers

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The Rockies have placed right-hander Justin Lawrence on waivers, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Notably, that does not mean the righty has been designated for assignment, and Lawrence can continue to workout with the Rockies and pitch in spring games while the waiver process runs its course. With that being said, Lawrence’s placement on waivers is irrevocable, meaning the right-hander will land with a new team in the coming days if any rival clubs put in a claim on his services.

Lawrence, 30, has parts of four MLB seasons under his belt since he debuted with the Rockies back in 2021. After struggling badly in a brief cup of coffee with the club during the 2021 campaign, Lawrence posted lackluster results in 2022 despite solid peripherals. While his 5.70 ERA that year was well below-average, a 3.39 FIP, a 3.54 xERA, and a 3.63 SIERA all suggested Lawrence had pitched much better than his surface level production would’ve suggested. He was a victim of a low 63.7% strand rate and an inflated .350 BABIP, but his strong 25.1% strikeout rate combined with a 50.8% groundball rate made clear the bones of a quality MLB reliever were present.

The right-hander then proved to be exactly that sort of quality MLB reliever the very next year, as he enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 at the age of 28. In 75 innings of work, Lawrence posted a 3.72 ERA with a matching 3.76 FIP while picking up 11 saves during a season where he shared the closer role with struggling veteran Pierce Johnson. Lawrence’s ERA that season may not jump off the page, but when factoring in the inflated offensive environment Rockies pitchers face at Coors Field he was actually well above average as demonstrated by his 134 ERA+. Lawrence’s peripherals more or less matched his work in the 2022 campaign, with a 23.9% strikeout rate, an 11% walk rate, and a 48.5% groundball rate. Entering 2024, it seemed as though the right-hander had a solid foundation for MLB success from which he could build off of going forward.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things worked out. Lawrence had the worst season of his career in 2024 as he surrendered a 6.49 ERA in 59 2/3 innings of work while his peripheral numbers regressed nearly across the board. Lawrence saw his walk rate tick up to 11.8% last year, while his strikeout rate plummeted to just 16.1%. Just four pitchers in the majors last year had a lower K-BB% than Lawrence, and in conjunction with the BABIP and strand rate related issues that are common for pitchers calling Coors Field home, it’s hardly a surprise that the right-hander struggled badly with metrics that mostly supported his poor performance including a 5.63 FIP, a 6.25 xERA, and a 4.73 SIERA.

In his first few outings this spring, Lawrence hasn’t looked much better. Spring results always need to be taken with a grain of salt, but the right-hander has looked wild with three walks and two hit batters against two strikeouts across three innings of work. That seems to have been enough for the Rockies, who expressed a desire to deal Lawrence this winter, to pull the plug. In doing so, the club opens up playing time for younger relief arms like Angel Chivilli and Jeff Criswell amid an noncompetitive season and could save the sum of Lawrence’s $975K arbitration salary if he’s plucked off waivers by another organization.

From when Lawrence is officially placed on waivers, rival clubs will have 48 hours to place a claim for his services. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll remain with the Rockies. The righty could be outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster at that point and stashed in the minors as depth, but Colorado would not necessarily have to do so and could just keep him in their big league bullpen going forward as well.

Javier Assad Ruled Out For Opening Day

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Cubs right-hander Javier Assad has been sidelined this spring due to oblique soreness, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine relays this afternoon that the righty won’t be ready to pitch in time for either the Tokyo Series on March 18 or the club’s stateside opener against the Diamondbacks on March 27. Presumably, the Cubs will place him on the injured list to open the season, leaving him out of action for at least the beginning of April.

Assad, 27, has found plenty of success over three seasons in the majors with Chicago despite questionable peripherals. The right-hander served in a part-time swing role for the Cubs in both the 2022 and ’23 seasons, posting a 3.06 ERA (139 ERA+) in 147 innings of work across 41 appearances (18 starts) during that two-year stretch. That excellent production came in spite of underlying numbers that were far less impressive. Assad walked 9.9% of his opponents while striking out just 20.2% of them over those first two seasons, and his 44.7% groundball rate was strong but not outstanding. That left him with a 4.34 FIP and a 4.59 SIERA over those two years, both of which painted him as a below average pitcher despite his above-average results.

When the right-hander was handed an Opening Day rotation spot by the Cubs last year, it was fair to wonder whether those lackluster peripherals would come back to bite him. He once again managed to defy the underlying metrics in 2024, however, posting a 3.73 ERA (107 ERA+) despite a 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA. His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were largely unchanged from the prior two seasons, but despite that he still posted the numbers of a solid back-end start across 147 innings and 29 starts. His 4.38 ERA and 4.80 FIP after the All-Star break last year stuck out as a potential cause for concern, but after an offseason that saw the club focus more on upgrading its lineup and bullpen rather than the rotation Assad once again figured to feature in the club’s starting five to open the 2025 season.

Those plans will have to be put on hold for now, however, as Assad is only just beginning to work his way back to the mound after being sidelined for all of last month by an oblique strain. Levine writes that the Cubs hope he’ll be able to proceed to throwing a bullpen session next week, but even that seems up in the air. Given the uncertainty surrounding Assad’s status, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs decided to formally pull the plug on him as an Opening Day possibility and begin exploring other options to fill out the rotation in earnest.

Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele front Chicago’s rotation and are slated to start the club’s two-game series against the Dodgers in Tokyo. Meanwhile, veterans Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd make up the middle of the Cubs’ rotation after Chicago added Boyd on a two-year deal back in December. With Assad no longer an option for the fifth starter job, it seems likely that the gig could fall to veteran swing man Colin Rea. Rea, 34, posted a 4.40 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances (49 starts) with Milwaukee over the past two years. He figures to be on the Opening Day roster so long as he’s healthy, though he does have ample experience pitching in relief as well.

The possibility that Rea could be used as a long reliever rather than a starter leaves the door open for one of the Cubs’ other potential starting options to grab the fifth starter job. Right-hander Ben Brown dazzled in his rookie season with a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work, and while he was sidelined by an osteoma on his neck for the entire second half last year he now appears to be fully healthy. Jordan Wicks struggled through an injury-marred campaign in 2024 but is a recent top-100 prospect with plenty of upside.

Veteran rotation arms Chris Flexen and Brad Keller are both in camp as non-roster invitees, and it’s possible either could factor into the competition for the fifth starter job alongside Rea, Brown, and Wicks. One player who is unlikely to compete for the job is top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who is healthy this spring after what amounted to a lost season in 2024 but still has minimal experience at the Triple-A level under his belt. Whoever earns the fifth starter job could theoretically pitch themselves into a more permanent job that lasts even beyond Assad’s upcoming IL stint, given that the 27-year-old has both ample bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.

Poll: Who’s The Best Hitter Still Available In Free Agency?

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With the end of February upon us, free agency has mostly been resolved for the offseason with only a handful of clearly big-league caliber free agents remaining. Unlike last year, when Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery were all top-10 free agents in the class who lingered on the open market well beyond the start of Spring Training, this year’s top free agents were almost entirely signed prior to the beginning of camp. At this point, just four of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents remain unsigned: Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, and Spencer Turnbull. Notably, all four of those unsigned players are pitchers.

While that leaves plenty of wiggle room for teams in need of pitching help due to a hole in the roster or a surprise injury to maneuver heading into March, the same can not be said on the hitting side of things. Even extending to the “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s list, just one hitter remains available after the Cubs’ recent signing of veteran infielder Justin Turner to a one-year deal. Slim as the pickings may be, however, there are certainly a handful of teams remaining who could use another bat in the lineup at least somewhere on the diamond. For those clubs in need of help on offense, who are the best options still remaining?

J.D. Martinez

The only hitter still available who made the aforementioned “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s Top 50, Martinez has an unmatched track record as a hitter but is headed into his age-37 season on the heels of a down season with the Mets. Last year, the veteran slugger managed a slash line of just .235/.320/.406 with a wRC+ of 108. That’s certainly not bad offensive production, but it’s less impressive for a DH-only player and a major step back for a hitter with a career 130 wRC+. Martinez’s strikeout rate (28.5%) and walk rate (9.9%) were both actually better than his 2023 season with the Dodgers, but that improved discipline at the plate came with a severe drop off in power as he hit just 16 homers, less than half of last year’s 33.

Even after last year’s down season, however, Martinez remains a decorated hitter with an excellent track record. He’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past ten 162-game seasons, with a .286/.355/.536 (136 wRC+) slash line overall since the start of 2014. Even last year’s down production was comparable or better than a number of bat-first players around the league who enter 2025 with starting jobs, such as Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, and Rhys Hoskins. Perhaps most importantly, it’s worth noting that Martinez substantially under-performed his expected numbers last year, and his .351 xwOBA was actually slightly higher than quality bats like Teoscar Hernandez and Seiya Suzuki. That suggests that even a repeat of 2024 could yield significantly stronger production.

Jose Iglesias

Few free agent hitters this year had a stronger platform season than Iglesias, who was worth 2.5 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR in just 85 games with the Mets thanks to an incredible .337/.381/.448 slash line, good for a 137 wRC+. Among second basemen with at least 250 plate appearances last year, that wRC+ is second only to Ketel Marte. Combined with Iglesias’s solid work with the glove around the infield, one would think that offense would make him a very attractive target for teams in need of help on the dirt. That’s not how things have played out so far, however. Iglesias has seemingly gotten little interest from clubs this winter, and a look under the hood helps to explain why.

Iglesias is on the older side, entering his age-35 season this year, and lacks a track record of success at the plate with a wRC+ of just 90 across more than 1,000 games in the majors. That’s not necessarily a death knell, as shown by Jurickson Profar turning last year’s breakout into a strong three-year guarantee with Atlanta, but underlying metrics suggest that Iglesias’s production last year is not anywhere near as sustainable. He was helped by an inflated .382 BABIP that’s nearly 70 points higher than his career .315 figure, and his xwOBA of .314 suggests his underlying performance was more akin to Jake Cronenworth than Francisco Lindor. Even with those potential red flags, however, Iglesias seems like the likely best option for teams in need of help on the infield.

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo won’t turn 29 until May, making him by far the youngest player mentioned on this list. He’s also found solid success at the plate before in his career, as demonstrated by his .289/.343/.435 (108 wRC+) slash line from 2019 to 2022. Those factors work in his favor, but to this point in his free agency he’s been unable to capitalize on them coming off the worst offensive campaign of his career. Verdugo slashed just .233/.291/.356 (83 wRC+) in 149 games for the Yankees last year, a figure that made him one of the ten worst hitters in the sport to qualify for the batting title. That won’t cut it for a bat-first position like left field, even if Verdugo is a quality defender at the position.

Things aren’t entirely grim for the outfielder, however. Verdugo’s .302 xwOBA suggests that his underlying performance was roughly league average last year, and his offensive production could also be improved by limiting his exposure to same-handed pitchers given that he’s a career 79 wRC+ hitter against southpaws who mostly repeated that with a 74 wRC+ last year. It’s also worth noting that Verdugo’s .253 BABIP last season was substantially worse than any other campaign of his career and a full 60 points below his career norm entering the year. While there’s little to like in Verdugo’s 2024 numbers, it would be reasonable to suggest that his youth and upside relative to the rest of the players mentioned here makes him an attractive option.

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo is entering his age-35 season an arguably the most difficult player to evaluate on this list. He’s played just 191 games over the past two years due to a number of substantial injuries, though none of them are the type of injury that would portend future injury woes: after suffering a concussion in early May of 2023, Rizzo saw his performance decline as he unknowingly played through the injury before being diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome ahead of a season-ending trip to the injured list in August of that year. He returned in 2024 but was limited to just 92 games by a fractured forearm and a finger fracture stemming from a collision at first base and a hit-by-pitch, respectively.

Over the past two years, Rizzo has not hit well. The veteran first baseman has slashed just .237/.315/.358 (91 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign, and his expected numbers don’t show clear signs of untapped potential. For a 35-year-old restricted to first base and DH defensively, that could be enough for many teams to dismiss him as a regular option. With that being said, however, Rizzo also sports a track record as one of the most consistent hitters of the decade prior to his injuries with a .268/.368/.486 (131 wRC+) slash line from 2012 to 2022. Rizzo was off to an excellent start in 2023, with a .301/.376/.513 (146 wRC+) slash line in 50 games prior to the concussion. Given his track record of success and the stark drop of production he faced amid the injuries of the past two seasons, perhaps a fully healthy campaign is all it would take to get the veteran’s career back on track.

__________________________________________________________

The four aforementioned hitters certainly aren’t the only ones remaining in free agency, though the remaining group come with plenty of question marks. David Peralta posted a strong 115 wRC+ with the Padres last year, but did so in only 260 plate appearances, is entering his age-38 campaign, and looked overmatched as a semi-regular player for the Dodgers the year prior. Whit Merrifield is a versatile fielder who posted roughly league average (97 wRC+) production with the Braves down the stretch last year, but did so only after a disastrous (63 wRC+) stint with the Phillies earlier in the season. Nick Senzel is a former top prospect who’s still just 29 years old, but has yet to hit in the majors across parts of six seasons.

Which of free agency’s remaining hitters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Who's the best hitter still on the market?
J.D. Martinez 59.01% (4,625 votes)
Alex Verdugo 16.45% (1,289 votes)
Anthony Rizzo 11.60% (909 votes)
Jose Igelsias 11.34% (889 votes)
Other (Specify in Comments) 1.61% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 7,838

The Opener: Steer, Ohtani, Alvarez

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Steer to undergo testing:

Reds infielder/outfielder Spencer Steer has been dealing with shoulder discomfort this spring, and Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the club’s plan is to have him re-examined by a team doctor before determining a course of action. That seemingly scuttles plans for him to return to playing catch on Monday, though Wittenmyer adds that the team is “confident” there’s no structural damage in his shoulder and that Steer’s swing is not impacted by the issue.

Steer has been serving as the club’s DH in spring games when he’s played due to the soreness he feels when throwing, but when healthy he’s one of the club’s more versatile players with experience at first, second, and third base as well as in left field. According to Wittenmyer, manager Terry Francona suggested that Steer could see more rest or perhaps receive a cortisone shot in his shoulder to speed up the healing process depending on the outcome of this weekend’s exam.

2. Ohtani to make spring debut:

Shohei Ohtani is set to make his spring debut today at DH, as Dave Roberts told reporters (including the Associated Press) earlier this week. It’s a notable step forward for Ohtani as he’s spent the offseason and early part of the spring not only rehabbing his right elbow ahead of his return to pitching during the first half of the 2025 campaign, but he’s also been rehabbing his left shoulder after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a labrum tear suffered during the World Series. With the Dodgers slated to get an early start to the season in the Tokyo Series in just over two weeks, Ohtani getting into spring lineups is a crucial step to ensuring that he’ll be ready for the two-game set against the Cubs.

3. Alvarez exits:

Atlanta infield prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr. departed yesterday evening’s game due to left wrist discomfort, as the club themselves announced. Alvarez, 22 in April, was not projected to make the club’s Opening Day roster with Orlando Arcia slated to serve as the club’s shortstop, Ozzie Albies entrenched at second, and Austin Riley back at third base after last year’s hand surgery. Even so, an absence from Alvarez that extends into the season would certainly be worrisome for the team given their relative lack of infield depth behind those three starters. Nick Allen projects to be their backup infield on the bench at present, with utility men Luke Williams and Christian Cairo also on the 40-man roster.

Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Battle

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The Yankees have remodeled their roster in a big way this offseason after losing Juan Soto to their intracity rivals in Queens, bringing in players like Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Cody Bellinger in order to bolster a roster that came into the winter with a number of holes. But apart from adding Goldschmidt at first, they haven’t addressed the infield. Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe figure to lockdown first base and shortstop respectively, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently penciled in as the club’s starting second baseman after playing third in deference to Gleyber Torres last year.

Chisholm’s likely move back to second leaves a hole at the hot corner, however, and the club’s options to filling that void leave much to be desired. With two years and $30MM remaining on his six-year, $90MM contract with the club, veteran DJ LeMahieu may seem like the obvious favorite to open the season as a starter for the club. Unfortunately, however, the now 36-year-old veteran took a tumble in terms of productivity last year. Injury woes delayed his start to the season and ultimately limited him to just 67 games, but even when LeMahieu was healthy enough to play his work wasn’t up to snuff. The veteran hit just .204/.269/.259, leaving him with a career-worst 52 wRC+ that was 15th from the bottom among all hitters who had at least 200 plate appearances last year.

It’s worth noting that LeMahieu’s underlying performance wasn’t quite as dire as his actual on-field production last year. LeMahieu’s .299 xwOBA far outstrips his actual wOBA of .239, with that expected number actually being better than the expected production of a handful of last year’s quality infield regulars like Luis Rengifo and Tyler Fitzgerald. LeMahieu’s barrel rate of 5.8% was perfectly in line with his numbers from the previous two seasons, and while his hard-hit rate was down, that drop wasn’t enough to justify his complete power outage in 2024, when he hit just five doubles and two homers in 228 trips to the plate. His .229 batting average on balls in play was also almost comically low, and his 15.4% strikeout rate remained excellent.

While any hope of LeMahieu returning to his former status as a clearly above-average contributor is likely misplaced with his 37th birthday approaching this July, it’s certainly not impossible to imagine a bit better luck on batted balls allowing him to be a roughly average regular so long as his defense holds up. That might be enough to assure him of a nearly everyday role with the Yankees to open the season, at least as things stand. While rolling the dice on a rebound from an aging veteran like LeMahieu is sure to a cause queasy feelings among fans, his competition for the job isn’t exactly robust.

The player in the third base competition coming off the best 2024 season is Oswaldo Cabrera. The switch-hitting utility man had an up-and-down season last year, hitting .247/.296/.365 (88 wRC+) overall while primarily playing third base but also mixing in time at every position on the diamond other than catcher and center field. His bat was quite inconsistent throughout the year, however. After a torrid ten-game stretch to open the season where he managed three home runs among twelve hits, Cabrera hit just .221/.269/.304 with a wRC+ of 62 across the rest of the first half, totaling 198 plate appearances in that time.

While the 25-year-old turned things around down the stretch and hit a respectable .271/.319/.424 after the All-Star break, that production came in a reduced role that saw him take just 92 trips to the plate across the final ten weeks of the season last year. That late-season uptick in production combined with the fact that he’ll only turn 26 later this week might be enough to convince Yankees brass that he’s worthy of another shot as a regular, but it would also be understandable if the club saw it as a signal that Cabrera is best suited for a utility role where his versatility can be best maximized and he can be more easily protected from tougher match ups.

The final top contender for playing time on the Yankees infield at the moment is Oswald Peraza. Still just 24 years old, Peraza is a former top-100 prospect who has yet to make a name for himself in the big leagues, having hit just .216/.297/.315 (74 wRC+) in 259 trips to the plate at the big league level over the past three seasons. Peraza is considered a quality defender all around the infield and has gotten only sporadic playing time in the majors to this point, so it’s fair to argue that he has the highest chance of blossoming into an above-average regular of the Yankees’ three primary third base options this year.

With that being said, however, Peraza’s prospect star lost its shine for a reason. A shoulder issue slowed him out of the gate last year, delaying the start of his season until May. And when he finally made his season debut, he found himself struggling to hit even at the Triple-A level with a pedestrian .246/.341/.394 line across 406 plate appearances. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Peraza is out of options, meaning that the Yankees would have to carry him on the big league roster as he not only attempts to bounce back from a tough season in the minors last year but also attempts to produce against major league pitching for the first time in his career.

Other internal options beyond this trio are few and far between. Jorbit Vivas is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make the majors, posted weaker numbers than Peraza at Triple-A last year, and has a minor league option remaining. Pablo Reyes is in camp as a non-roster invitee but is a career .248/.309/.349 (78 wRC+) hitter in the majors who posted a brutal 23 wRC+ in brief stints with the Red Sox and Mets last year. Braden Shewmake and Andrew Velazquez are also in camp with the club but have yet to show an ability to hit major league pitching to this point in their careers. While an external addition would make plenty of sense for the club, the pickings on the free agent market are very slim at this point, and the Yankees have signaled they don’t have the budget space necessary for a pursuit of a high-dollar solution like Nolan Arenado without first offsetting the cost by trading a veteran like Marcus Stroman.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation at third base will play out for the Yankees? Will they lean on LeMahieu in hopes of a bounceback? Should they turn to Cabrera despite his inconsistency and value as a utility player? Or could they give the reins to Peraza in hopes he can continue to develop at the big league level? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will start the most games for the Yankees at third base in 2025?
Someone not yet in the organization 34.11% (2,606 votes)
DJ LeMahieu 27.16% (2,075 votes)
Oswaldo Cabrera 20.77% (1,587 votes)
Oswald Peraza 17.97% (1,373 votes)
Total Votes: 7,641

The Opener: Team Debuts, Rotation Battles, Reds

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Pitchers making their team debut today:

It’s still the early days of spring, which means a number of players have not yet gotten into a game so far. As more players start making their first appearances, fans will continue to get their first looks at offseason acquisitions in their new settings. Today, perhaps the most notable among these is right-hander Luis Severino’s first appearance as an Athletic after he signed the largest free agent deal in franchise history back in December. Severino is slated to start the club’s 1:05pm MT game against the Padres, who will be countering with knuckleballer Matt Waldron.

Over in Florida, meanwhile, right-hander Cal Quantrill will make his on-mound debut for the Marlins at 1:05pm ET opposite the Cardinals and Andre Pallante. At that same time, Jack Flaherty will be kicking off his return to the Tigers with his first appearance for the club since being traded to the Dodgers over the summer. Flaherty will face Quinn Priester and the Red Sox. Coincidentally, the Tigers have announced that shortstop Trey Sweeney (who the club acquired from L.A. in exchange for Flaherty over the summer) will be batting leadoff in this afternoon’s game.

2. Pitchers battling for rotation spots:

Aside from the offseason acquisitions fans will be able to see pitch for their club for the first time today, a number of back-of-the-rotation pieces around the league are looking to make their case for an Opening Day rotation spot with their club. That group includes Waldron and Priester, both of whom are on the periphery of the fifth starter conversation in San Diego and Boston respectively.

Beyond those two aforementioned names, Landon Knack of the Dodgers (1:10pm MT vs Colorado), Jordan Wicks of the Cubs (1:05pm MT vs Anaheim), Matt Manning of the Tigers (1:05pm ET vs Tampa), Graham Ashcraft of the Reds (1:05pm MT vs Arizona), and Bryce Elder of the Braves (6:05pm ET vs Washington) are all scheduled to start games today as they look to muscle their way ahead of the competition for a vacant fifth starter job. None of these players are currently considered to be a favorite, with Waldron having perhaps the cleanest path to an Opening Day rotation job of the group, but a strong performance this spring could help these hurlers get noticed as they jockey for positioning on their club’s rotation depth chart.

3. Reds in the market for pitching depth:

The Reds have had a fairly busy offseason, which they kicked off by bringing in future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona. They’ve swung trades for Jose Trevino, Brady Singer, Taylor Rogers, and Gavin Lux since then while also bringing back Nick Martinez on the Qualifying Offer and signing Austin Hays to patrol the outfield. It’s possible they aren’t done yet, however, as reporting yesterday suggested that the club hopes to add another depth option to its rotation mix.

That’s understandable given the slow starts to the spring for lefty Andrew Abbott and prospect Rhett Lowder, particularly given the fact that non-roster veteran Wade Miley won’t be ready until May as he rehabs Tommy John surgery. Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, and Spencer Turnbull are all pitchers that seem likely to score big league deals even at this late stage of the offseason, while potential candidates for non-roster deals include Alex Wood, and Marco Gonzales.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cubs’ Fifth Starter?

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As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.

If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.

If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.

Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.

Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.

While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.

Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.

Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.

The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will be the Cubs' fifth starter in the Opening Day rotation?
Colin Rea 27.57% (1,238 votes)
Javier Assad 25.84% (1,160 votes)
Ben Brown 22.87% (1,027 votes)
Jordan Wicks 16.12% (724 votes)
Someone Else 7.59% (341 votes)
Total Votes: 4,490

The Opener: Nationals, Blanco, Effross

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals 40-man move incoming:

The Nationals reportedly agreed to a new deal with right-hander Kyle Finnegan yesterday after non-tendering him back in November. However, the one-year, $6MM pact is not yet official. In order for the deal to become official, the Nationals will have to create a space on their 40-man roster for Finnegan. The Nats have already put both Josiah Gray and Mason Thompson on the 60-day injured list this spring, and have no other obvious candidates to miss the first two months of the season. Given that, they’ll likely need to designate a player for assignment or work out some sort of minor trade in order to clear a roster spot for Finnegan. That transaction is likely to come in the near future, as the club will surely want to get Finnegan into camp as soon as possible.

2. Blanco undergoes MRI:

Royals outfielder Dairon Blanco was scratched from the club’s spring lineup earlier this week due to soreness in his right Achilles tendon. According to MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, initial x-rays came back showing nothing of particular concern, but Kansas City still sent Blanco for an MRI exam yesterday. Those results figure to be available as soon as today, at which point a timeline for Blanco’s return to baseball activities can be established. The soon to be 32-year-old slashed .258/.308/.392 in 88 games for the Royals last year and currently appears likely to serve as Kyle Isbel’s platoon partner in center field for Kansas City this season. Should Blanco miss significant time, Joey Wiemer or Drew Waters could be tapped to step into that role instead.

3. Effross to undergo testing:

Yankees right-hander Scott Effross has struggled to stay on the field since being acquired from the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline for righty Hayden Wesneski (who later went on to be part of the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason). Effross, 31, has appeared in just 16 games since first donning a Yankees uniform. Tommy John surgery shut him down in 2022, and back surgery kept him out for the majority of the 2024 campaign. The righty has managed just 74 2/3 innings of work in the majors but has been excellent when healthy, with a 2.89 ERA and 2.86 FIP for his career.

A healthy Effross would be a key part of New York’s bullpen, but unfortunately the injury bug appears to have bitten him again. According to Greg Joyce of the New York Post, Effross left his most recent spring appearance after throwing just one pitch yesterday due to what Aaron Boone described to reporters (including Joyce) as a hamstring issue. Effross is set to undergo testing to determine the severity of the problem, but anything more than a mild strain could rule the righty out for Opening Day.

Poll: Giants Backup Catcher

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Entering Spring Training, there was some belief that veteran catcher Tom Murphy’s job backing up Patrick Bailey in San Francisco wasn’t entirely assured even in of the $4.25MM guaranteed remaining on his contract with the Giants. The door has opened for other alternatives even more since then, as the club announced yesterday that Murphy will miss multiple weeks with a herniated disc in his mid-back.

While Murphy is still tentatively expected to be available at some point in the first half, his availability for the start of the season is in serious doubt. With the club’s incumbent likely to miss at least the start of the season due to injury, the Giants have little choice but to seriously consider the number of alternative options currently in camp with them. The club has four catchers in camp aside from Bailey and Murphy as things stand: Sam Huff, Max Stassi, Logan Porter, and Adrian Sugastey. Sugastey is just 22 years old and slashed a meager .210/.241/.304 at Double-A last season, leaving him extremely unlikely to be called up to the majors until he’s had more time to develop. Huff, Stassi, and Porter all appear to be legitimate contenders for the job, however.

To the extent that there’s a favorite for the job, it seems that status would fall to Huff now that Murphy is out of commission. Unlike the other options in camp with the club, Huff is already on the 40-man roster after being plucked off waivers from the Rangers shortly after the new year. A former consensus top-100 prospect, Huff was a seventh-round pick by the Rangers in 2016 who blossomed into an intriguing bat-first catcher during his time in the minor leagues. Above-average offense isn’t necessarily a must from a club’s backup catcher, but given Bailey’s light-hitting, defense-first profile it’s easy to see why the Giants might be attracted to Huff as a potential complement.

A career .263/.334/.480 hitter across all levels of the minors, Huff has 78 games in the big leagues under his belt across four seasons with Texas. Unfortunately, that big league playing time has been something of a mixed bag. While he’s posted a solid 112 wRC+ in 214 career MLB plate appearances, he’s struck out at a massive 33.6% clip and largely been buoyed by a .353 BABIP that seems unlikely to be sustainable. Huff has generally been regarded as a below-average defender behind the plate as well despite a strong throwing arm and decent framing ability. That lack of defensive excellence puts more pressure on Huff’s bat, and it can be difficult for a high-strikeout profile like Huff’s to offer consistent production in a bench role.

Those potential question marks surrounding Huff could open the door for Stassi to take the job. The most experienced catcher in the backup mix for the Giants (even including Murphy), the soon to be 34-year-old has participated in parts of 10 MLB seasons, including a three-year run of regular at-bats with the Angels from 2020 to 2022. While the 2020 and ’21 seasons saw Stassi briefly break out offensively with a solid 113 wRC+, Stassi is mostly a glove-first catcher; he hit just .180/.267/.303 across 102 games in 2022 and has a career wRC+ of just 83. With +20 framing runs since the start of the 2018 season according to Statcast, however, Stassi makes up for his lack of offense with excellent defense that could pair with Bailey to give the Giants the best defensive tandem behind the plate in the sport.

Stassi comes with his own flaws, however. Most notably, he hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2022 due to a combination of family considerations and injuries. At nearly 34 years old, Stassi has reached the age where many catchers start to struggle to stay effective due to the toll the position takes on the body, and that concern is exacerbated for Stassi in particular due to both his checkered recent history and the fact that he regressed both offensively and defensively during the 2022 campaign.

Of course, that regression may have also had something to do with his career-high workload that year, an issue that would not come up in 2025 should he serve as Bailey’s backup. On the other hand, Stassi offers little upside, with even a solid rebound from his 2022 season likely ending with him being a below-average hitter. Huff offers significantly more upside, both due to the potential of his bat and because he has less than two years of MLB service time under his belt at this point, allowing him to be controlled through the end of the 2029 season.

Porter, meanwhile, stands as less likely to earn the job than either Huff or Stassi but also represents something of a middle ground between the two. The 29-year-old is the least experienced of the trio at the big league level, having appeared in just 11 games with the Royals back in 2023. With that being said, he has a reputation as a strong defender and pairs that with a bat that showed some life at Triple-A last year, where he slashed a combined .267/.370/.453 (114 wRC+) in 73 across the Royals, Mets, and Giants organizations. Given his lack of big league experience, Porter could be controlled long-term and even optioned to the minor leagues if added to the 40-man roster, while Huff is out of options and Stassi has enough service time to decline an optional assignment.

Assuming Murphy begins the season on the injured list, which catcher should the Giants pair with Bailey? Is Huff’s former top prospect status and offensive upside worth the lackluster defense and potential contact issues? Should the club gamble on Stassi’s track record of MLB success despite his long layoff from big league games and worrying signals in his 2022 campaign? Or should the club take a chance on Porter despite his minimal big league experience? Have your say in the poll below:

Who should back up Patrick Bailey on Opening Day?
Sam Huff 47.77% (1,701 votes)
Max Stassi 42.83% (1,525 votes)
Logan Porter 9.41% (335 votes)
Total Votes: 3,561

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