The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in baseball in recent years. The won the NL pennant just two years ago, and last season put together a strong 89-win campaign that just barely missed the playoffs due to a three-way tiebreaker with the Braves and Mets. After an offseason where the club brought in Josh Naylor and Corbin Burnes among a handful of other additions, it wasn’t hard to see the Diamondbacks serving as the main challenger to the Dodgers in the NL West, or at least as an early favorite for one of the NL Wild Card spots.
Things haven’t worked out that way, however. The Diamondbacks entered play today with a 28-31 record that leaves them in fourth place in the NL West, 7.5 games back of the Dodgers but also behind the Padres and Giants. Even in the NL Wild Card race, Arizona is five games back, in line with the records of likely sellers in other divisions like the Nationals and Reds. While they entered the season with a 60.4% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs, today’s playoff odds give them just a 27.9% chance to play in the postseason this year. Those odds are a worrying sign, but they’re hardly the be-all and end-all; the Tigers (20.3%) and Mets (9.8%) both had slimmer odds at the postseason than that one year ago today and ended up not only making the playoffs but playing fairly deep into October.
What separates Arizona from last year’s surprise contenders, however, is that they clearly appear to be on the downswing. Burnes is having elbow troubles, leaving his future at the top of their rotation uncertain at best. Closer A.J. Puk is on the 60-day injured list with an uncertain timeline*. Zac Gallen hasn’t looked like himself all season, and Brandon Pfaadt was having trouble staying consistent even before he gave up eight runs without recording an out in his most recent start against the Nationals. An offense with players like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and even Pavin Smith all hitting incredibly well feels as though it should be a slam dunk to make the postseason, but the club just doesn’t appear to have enough pitching to make a run as presently constructed without significant turnarounds from players like Gallen.
An argument could be made, however, that with Marte nearing the end of his prime years and players like Gallen, Naylor, Merrill Kelly, and Eugenio Suarez ticketed for free agency this winter, that the Diamondbacks would simply be best served supplementing the current roster with more pitching this summer and attempting to make a late-season run. A number of interesting arms could potentially be available this summer, ranging from mid-rotation pieces like Zach Eflin and Nick Martinez to relief help like Pete Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan. Any of those options could help stabilize the pitching staff enough for Arizona’s vaunted offense to carry the rest of the load, and that’s before considering the unlikely but still feasible possibilities that teams like the Astros and Cardinals decide to dangle Framber Valdez and Ryan Helsley.
The complication with that, however, is that Arizona is already in very uncharted waters when it comes to payroll. Efforts to trade Jordan Montgomery to free up payroll space this winter were unsuccessful, and the fact that he ended up going under the knife before the season began put a stop to any hopes of moving him to make room for other players in the budget this summer. It’s at least theoretically possible ownership could be willing to green-light even more spending for a squad that RosterResource suggests is already costing the club $196MM this year, but it would hardly be a surprise if managing general partner Ken Kendrick was reluctant to invest in the team further without them showing more signs of life. Young players like Carroll, Jordan Lawlar, and Perdomo aren’t going anywhere, so it’s not hard to imagine the club being able to load up on talent this summer by moving players like Gallen and Suarez with an eye towards contending in 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps the best news for the Diamondbacks at this point is that there’s still nearly two months until the deadline, meaning they won’t need to make a decision for at least a few more weeks. A late June stretch where the club enjoys nine consecutive games against the Rockies, White Sox, and Marlins could easily provide just the sort of shot in the arm Arizona needs to get right back into the thick of the Wild Card race, especially if they’re able to take series against more middle-of-the-road clubs like Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Toronto over the next two weeks.
How do MLBTR readers think the Diamondbacks will ultimately handle their deadline dilemma? Will they push their chips in with the 2025 club, or dangle players like Gallen in hopes of building a stronger team for next year? Have your say in the poll below:
*This post originally stated that Puk was done for the year. MLBTR regrets the error.
I think it depends on how badly Corbin Burnes is hurt.
I think the season is lost. The article hardly points out how bad the bullpen is and does not debate what options there are to improve it. The rotation, no matter how disappointing it might be, is still average – largely thanks to Burnes – but the bullpen is one of the worst in the entire MLB.
Pfaadt’s metric shows he is getting luck right now. His ERA should be much higher. If Burnes goes out for a long time or the year Gallen has been a disaster this year and E-Rod can’t stay on the field.
I expect them to sell by cutting what payroll they can move and retool in the off season.
Trade a rental or two while adding a long term piece
I did not expect them to under 500, but I think they can get back to playing over 500. I voted that they add and subtract.
Not sure about Puk being done for the year. I haven’t seen that reported yet.
Hard to imagine them getting their act together if Burnes is lost for the year, as he appears likely to be. Trading some guys they know they won’t be able to afford to keep should help them re-tool to remain competitive next year. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Yes. They were a nice Cinderella story a couple of seasons ago but the writing is on the wall.
They’ve played a very tough schedule both the New Yorks and the Dodgers 7 times they could still get a card if Burnes is not a UCL and there pitching turns it around
Please return Eugenio back to the M’s. A couple pitching prospects in turn.
This could be the 3rd team in my trade scenario from yesterday.
Seattle could get Schultz and Geno.
Sox get Ford I was going to let them choose a prospect after 15. I will make that pick for them they get Evans. From the Snakes they get a prospect from 15 on back. Then an unranked one. They also have to pick one of the guys left whose contract is expiring.
Snakes get Castillo and something they want and need from the Sox. Don’t know enough about the teams to know their needs. Was going to suggest prospects but Sox would need close to MLB ready guys.
Before you rip me apart I have a medical condition and it is a bad day. Had to rewrite this a bunch. Hope I got it straight. A little grace for the old guys would be nice.