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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Diamondbacks Claim Cole Sulser From Marlins

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve claimed reliever Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins. Arizona’s 40-man roster tally jumps to 37, while Miami’s drops to 40.

Sulser spent one season in South Florida. The Fish acquired the right-hander alongside hard-throwing Tanner Scott in a package deal with the Orioles going into the 2022 season. Sulser was coming off an excellent 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 innings in Baltimore, looking like a late-blooming high-leverage bullpen piece. He didn’t replicate that success during his year in Miami, however, scuffling to a 5.29 ERA over 34 frames.

The 32-year-old surrendered six home runs over that stretch, and his strikeout rate dipped from 28.4% with Baltimore to 25.5% this past season. Sulser’s average fastball speed also dropped from 93.3 MPH to 91.9 MPH, and he lost a couple months midseason with a lat strain.

That down year explains why the Marlins were willing to part with Sulser not long after acquiring him, but it’s easy enough to see the appeal for the Diamondbacks in giving him a shot. Even with his diminished velocity, he got swinging strikes on an above-average 13.3% of his pitches this year. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has spoken about prioritizing swing-and-miss in adding to a bullpen that ranked last in the big leagues with a 19.7% strikeout rate.

Sulser has between three and four years of major league service, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a modest $1MM salary if tendered a contract, and he could be a multi-year bullpen piece for the Snakes if he can right the ship.

Marlins Designate Parker Bugg For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated reliever Parker Bugg for assignment, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. Cole Sulser has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list to take the active and 40-man roster spots.

Bugg, 27, was just selected onto the MLB club over the weekend. He didn’t wind up making it into a game, and he loses his roster spot in short order. The LSU product has spent his entire professional career in the Miami organization, entering the affiliated ranks as a 27th-round pick in 2016. He’s split this season between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville, working to a 2.39 ERA across 37 2/3 innings. The righty has fanned a solid 26.7% of batters faced but walked an alarming 15.5% of opponents.

Miami will have a few days to try to run Bugg through waivers. He’s never previously been outrighted, so if he goes unclaimed, he’ll remain in the organization without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster. Bugg would be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of the season if he’s not on a 40-man.

Sulser missed a hair more than two months after straining his right lat in mid-June. An offseason acquisition from the Orioles alongside the hard-throwing Tanner Scott, he’s made 26 appearances during his first season in South Florida. Sulser has a 3.86 ERA across 23 1/3 frames, striking out an above-average 27.5% of opponents with a 10.5% walk percentage. He’ll presumably step back into the high-leverage mix for manager Don Mattingly for the stretch run.

Marlins Announce Six Roster Moves

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The Marlins made a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s game, including the placement of right-hander Anthony Bender on the 15-day injured list due to a right elbow strain.  Righty Tommy Nance was also optioned to Triple-A, right-hander A.J. Ladwig was designated for assignment, and right-hander Cole Sulser was moved to the 60-day IL.  For new faces on Miami’s roster, the club selected the contracts of left-hander Andrew Nardi and right-hander Parker Bugg from Triple-A.

Something was clearly amiss with Bender yesterday, as he lasted only five pitches into a relief outing before having to leave the game.  The severity of the elbow strain isn’t yet known, but given the timing on the baseball calendar, it is possible Bender’s season might be over even if he hasn’t suffered any notable structural damage to his elbow.

The righty already missed close to 10 weeks of the season due to a back problem, and was only just activated off the 60-day IL in early August.  After a strong 2021 rookie season, Bender has still pitched well (3.26 ERA over 19 1/3 IP) this year, though his strikeouts are down and his health problems have cost him a lot of momentum.  Tanner Scott has now emerged as the Marlins’ closer, but heading into the season, there was some thought that Bender could possibly assume the role, and he has the majority of save chances prior to his first injury.

Sulser was another closer candidate, except a right lat strain sent him to the IL in mid-June.  The shift to the 60-man injured list is largely procedural, as the Marlins can now create 40-man roster space, and Sulser’s original timeline is still set from his initial June 13 placement date.  Sulser has been rehabbing at Triple-A and might not be far away from a return.

Bugg and Nardi join the 40-man and 26-man rosters, and are now in line to make their Major League debuts.  Bugg was a 27th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, while Nardi was a 16th-round selection in 2019.

The 27-year-old Bugg has worked mostly as a reliever during his pro career, with a few opener-style starts.  Now in his third season at Triple-A, Bugg is delivering good results with a 2.39 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, though his walk rate has been worryingly high.  Over 131 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Bugg has a 13.64% walk rate.

Nardi is just a few days short of his 24th birthday, so this promotion counts as a very memorable early present.  Control was also a problem for Nardi earlier in his career, but over the last two seasons has managed to both limit the walks and increase his strikeout totals.  As a result, Nardi has now gone from A-ball in May 2021 all the way to the majors in just 15 months.  MLB Pipeline ranks Nardi 30th on their list of Marlins prospects, giving 55 grades to his slider and his fastball (which usually sits in the 92-94mph range).

Since the Marlins are coming off a doubleheader with the Braves yesterday, the promotions of Bugg and Nardi give Miami a couple of fresh arms in the relief corps.  This meant a quick departure for Ladwig, who was called up yesterday as the 27th man for the doubleheader.  Ladwig’s brief stay did result in his first MLB appearance, as he tossed 3 1/3 innings against the World Series champs, allowing four runs.  A longtime member of the Tigers organization, Ladwig signed with the Marlins in May after being released by Detroit.

Marlins Select Jimmy Yacabonis

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The Marlins announced a series of roster moves before this afternoon’s matchup with the Phillies (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Miami selected reliever Jimmy Yacabonis onto the big league club and recalled left-hander Daniel Castano from Triple-A Jacksonville. To free a pair of active roster spots, right-handers Edward Cabrera and Cole Sulser have each landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 13. Southpaw Jesús Luzardo was transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man for Yacabonis.

Assuming Yacabonis gets into a game, it’ll be the fifth season in which he’s logged some big league action. He pitched with the Orioles and Mariners between 2017-20 and briefly appeared on Seattle’s active roster last year, but he was designated for assignment without making an appearance. Yacabonis has worked 104 cumulative innings across 57 MLB games, posting a 5.71 ERA while working primarily in long relief.

A St. John’s product, Yacabonis has worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers as a big leaguer. He has, however, been effective at the Triple-A level over the past couple seasons. The righty worked to a 2.17 ERA across 37 1/3 frames with the Mariners top affiliate last year, and he’s pitched quite well through 23 2/3 innings in Jacksonville after signing a minor league deal this spring. Yacabonis owns a 3.42 ERA and has punched out an excellent 35% of batters faced, easily the highest single-season mark of his pro career. That’s come with a spike in free passes, but the Fish will see if he can carry that bat-missing success over against big league hitters.

Yacabonis is out of minor league option years, so the Marlins will now have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The injury to Sulser, in particular, could afford an opportunity for Yacabonis to stake a claim to a bullpen role. Acquired from the Orioles over the offseason, Sulser has a 3.86 ERA through 23 1/3 innings. He’s currently battling a lat strain, however, and that’ll put his solid first season in South Florida on hold.

Cabrera, meanwhile, is dealing with tendinitis in his throwing elbow. One of the more highly-regarded young arms around the game, Cabrera has started ten games for the Marlins over the past couple seasons. The hard-throwing hurler has a 4.93 ERA through 42 innings as he’s struggled to throw strikes, but he’s also flashed swing-and-miss stuff. Cabrera has started three games with the MLB club and five games for the Jumbo Shrimp this year.

Castano will get the ball this afternoon, his first start of the season. He steps in for Pablo López, who won’t make his start as scheduled due to a wrist contusion. The right-hander was struck by a comebacker during his outing last Friday, and he’s apparently still not ready to get back on the mound. The Marlins haven’t placed López on the injured list, suggesting they’re not overly concerned about his long-term status.

Luzardo has been out for a month with a forearm strain. Today’s transfer keeps him out for 60 days from the time of his original IL placement, so he’ll first be eligible to return shortly before the All-Star Break. It’s unlikely Luzardo will be ready by that point anyhow, as the team is understandably taking things slowly with the promising young hurler given the injury. He did progress to playing catch off flat ground this week (McPherson link), but he’ll still need to build back arm strength and likely throw a bullpen session or two before the team considers sending him on a minor league rehab assignment.

Orioles Acquire Yaqui Rivera From Marlins

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The Orioles announced they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Yaqui Rivera from the Marlins. He’s the player to be named later in the April deal that sent relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott to South Florida.

Rivera, 18, was a recent signee of Miami’s out of the Dominican Republic. He made his professional debut last season with a few outings in complex ball and nine starts in the Dominican Summer League. Rivera, who has never appeared on an organizational prospects list at FanGraphs or Baseball America, missed some bats but also had an elevated walk rate — unsurprising tendencies for a pitcher so young.

The 6’2″ hurler is one of three young players the O’s added to the organization in the deal. Baltimore also picked up left-hander Antonio Velez, who has struggled with home runs over his first eight outings in Double-A this year, and low minors outfielder Kevin Guerrero. The 25-year-old Velez is certainly the most likely of the trio to make any kind of near-term impact in spite of his early struggles in Bowie; Guerrero and Rivera are long-term developmental fliers.

Sulser and Scott have each stepped into the big league bullpen in Miami, with the former assuming some high-leverage opportunities. It’s been a fairly similar start to the season for both, who each have quality swing-and-miss numbers but have struggled with control. Sulser owns a 4.50 ERA through 18 innings, and he’s seen his fastball velocity drop nearly two ticks on average relative to last season. Scott remains among the harder left-handed throwers in the game, but he’s dealt with strike-throwing issues throughout his career. He has a 5.40 ERA in 18 1/3 frames with the Fish.

Marlins Acquire Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser From Orioles

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8:56PM: Both teams have officially announced the trade.  To clear 40-man roster space for Scott and Sulser, the Marlins have designated left-hander Nick Neidert for assignment and placed lefty Sean Guenther on the 60-day injured list.  MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reported Friday that Guenther was dealing with an arm injury that may require surgery.

5:52PM: The Marlins have acquired left-hander Tanner Scott and right-hander Cole Sulser from the Orioles.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported (Twitter links) Scott’s inclusion in the deal, while The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported that Sulser had also been dealt.  Feinsand reports that the Orioles will receive prospects Antonio Velez and Kevin Guerrero, a player to be named later, and the Marlins’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B of this summer’s amateur draft.

The bullpen was known to be a target area for Miami, and the Fish have now bolstered their relief core with a pair of experienced arms.  In Sulser, the Marlins have also found a new closer candidate, as Sulser saved eight games with Baltimore last season.  While the Marlins aren’t expected to have a full-time closer, there is a vacancy for the ninth inning, as Dylan Floro is expected to start the season on the injured list.

Sulser is a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until he was 29, so he is still controlled through the 2025 season even though he only recently celebrated his 32nd birthday.  Injuries played a factor in Sulser’s late start, as he underwent two Tommy John surgeries (one in college, and the other in 2015 when he was pitching in Cleveland’s farm system).  He finally surfaced in the majors with the Rays in 2019, and then came to Baltimore on a waiver claim at the end of the 2019 season.

After posting a 5.56 ERA over 22 2/3 innings in 2020, Sulser broke out with a 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 relief innings for Baltimore last season.  Though his 8.9% walk rate ranked only in the 40th percentile of all pitchers (as per Statcast), Sulser’s 28.4% strikeout rate was well above average, and fit in the high strikeout totals he has posted during his minor league career.

Scott also hasn’t had much trouble missing bats, but the southpaw’s control issues have resulted in some inconsistent numbers over 156 Major League innings.  Scott has an ungainly 13.6% walk rate during his MLB career, which is a big reason why he has posted only a 4.73 ERA with the Orioles despite a 50.1% grounder rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate.

Between those numbers, Scott’s mid-90s fastball, and his three remaining years of arbitration control (Scott is set to earn $1.05MM this season after avoiding arbitration with the O’s), it is easy to see why Scott has drawn his share of trade buzz over the years.  As well, Sulser’s name also surfaced in trade rumors earlier this year, as the rebuilding Orioles continue to be open for business on pretty much everyone on the roster.

In fact, the Marlins themselves swung another notable bullpen trade with the O’s back in August 2020, picking up Richard Bleier.  Sulser and Bleier will now join Anthony Bass and Anthony Bender as Miami’s top save candidates, with Floro joining the mix when he returns to action.  It is quite possible more names might end up emerging as closer possibilities for manager Don Mattingly, or one of those relievers might pitch well enough to firmly establish themselves as the top choice for the ninth inning.

From Baltimore’s perspective, the CBR-B draft pick may be the biggest score of the trade return.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are two separate draft rounds that respectively take place after the first round and second round of the draft, with 15 teams (all falling within the bottom 10 of market or revenue size) getting a bonus pick in one of the two rounds.  For the 2022 draft, the Marlins were selected into CBR-B and had the first pick of that round.  As it so happens, Baltimore will now be picking first in both Competitive Balance Rounds, as the O’s also have the first selection of CBR-A.  The Competitive Balance picks are the only draft selections that are allowed to be traded.

Baseball America ranked Guerrero 29th and Velez 34th on their most recent list of the Marlins’ top 40 prospects.  Guerrero is a 17-year-old outfielder who was part of the 2020-21 international signing class, and he hit .260/.373/.298 in 159 PA this past summer with the Marlins’ Dominican Summer League squad.  BA’s scouting report describes him as something of a work in progress, as his “future will be based around the way his body develops,” given that Guerrero is already 6’3″ but only 165 pounds.

Velez is a Miami native who wasn’t drafted coming out of Florida State, owing to the shortened nature of the 2020 draft.  Baseball America credited Velez as having the best changeup and best control of any pitcher in the Marlins’ farm system, which is no small achievement given all of the high-profile young arms in Miami’s minor league ranks.  In addition to that quality changeup, Velez’s “low-90s fastball is amplified by vertical break that borders on double-plus.”

While the Orioles continue to bolster their minor league ranks, today’s trade marks yet another move that depletes the MLB roster.  Sulser was tentatively set to act as Baltimore’s closer, and since Scott was also in the mix for save chances, it is now an open question as to who will end up getting ninth-inning duties.  Paul Fry, Jorge Lopez, and Dillon Tate look like the next men up on the depth chart, though any number of pitchers could be cycled through depending on performance, shifting roles, injuries, and perhaps more trades.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Orioles’ Breakout Reliever Should Be In Demand This Winter

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The Orioles are coming off their fourth consecutive season posting one of the five worst records in MLB. It is very slowly becoming easier to see the potential for better days, with top prospects Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez soon to join breakout star Cedric Mullins and solid young players like Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle at the big league level.

Baltimore should be better in 2022 than they’ve been over the last few seasons, but they’re not on the verge of contention. The O’s front office probably views 2023 and beyond as a more realistic window to compete. If that’s the case, then GM Mike Elias figures to listen to offers on Cole Sulser, whose surprising 2021 season should make him a prime trade target for clubs this winter.

Sulser had appeared briefly in the majors before this year. He broke in with Tampa Bay in 2019, then was claimed off waivers by Baltimore over the following offseason. He was hit around in his early big league time, but his track record of posting huge strikeout numbers in the minors inspired the Baltimore front office to give him another opportunity. Sulser worked in low-leverage situations for the first couple months, but he proved to be one of the few reliable bullpen options for manager Brandon Hyde. By late June, Hyde was giving him more important innings.

Thanks to that strong first few months, he reportedly drew a bit of interest at the trade deadline. There’s no indication a deal ever got close this summer, but teams should be more motivated to land Sulser now. From July 31 onward, the right-hander tossed 25 innings of 2.52 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .207/.247/.304 slash line. Sulser’s strikeout rate actually ticked down from his early season level, but he paired that with a corresponding drop in walks.

Overall, Sulser’s coming off a 2021 campaign in which he worked 63 1/3 frames with a 2.70 ERA/3.45 SIERA. He punched out a solid 28.4% of batters faced while only walking 8.9% of his opponents. Despite middle-of-the-road velocity, Sulser racked up plenty of whiffs on a backspinning four-seam fastball which he generally featured up in the strike zone. He backed that up with a solid changeup that he located consistently down and arm side, an effective weapon that was crucial in neutralizing left-handed hitters (who hit .186/.270/.274 in 127 plate appearances).

Sulser has missed bats in both Triple-A and the big leagues. He throws strikes at a strong clip, succeeded in higher-leverage situations, and is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Contending clubs are always on the lookout for bullpen help, and Sulser has a strong all-around profile.

Equally appealing is Sulser’s contractual outlook. He’s not slated to reach arbitration eligibility until the conclusion of next season. Barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement, he’d remain under club control for three seasons thereafter. That affordability should appeal to both low-payroll clubs as well as bigger spenders intent on staying below the luxury tax threshold.

That remaining control means the Orioles don’t have to trade Sulser this offseason, but it seems likely they’d be open if made a strong enough offer. A late bloomer, he’s already 31 years old (32 in March). Baltimore probably won’t be in position to contend before Sulser turns 33 or 34.

Relief pitchers also tend to be volatile, so Elias and his staff could see this winter as the best opportunity to move Sulser for a strong prospect return. The O’s reportedly fielded interest in Tanner Scott and Paul Fry at the deadline but elected to hold both players. Each had an atrocious second half that likely sapped the bulk of their trade value. It’s fair to wonder if the front office would rather strike relatively early on a Sulser deal than risk a similar downturn in production from him next summer.

Sulser’s breakout performance could result in his changing teams in the coming months. Still buried at the bottom of the standings, the O’s front office figures to continue to jump at opportunities to stockpile young talent as they progress through their massive rebuilding project. Turning a fairly recent waiver claim into a solid prospect or two makes plenty of sense for Baltimore, while Sulser might have pitched his way into more immediate contention.

Two Orioles Lefties Commanding Trade Interest

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Baltimore left-handers Paul Fry and Tanner Scott aren’t household names, but both are drawing ample trade interest as Friday afternoon’s deadline approaches, per both Dan Connolly of The Athletic and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Right-handers Cole Sulser and Dillon Tate have also drawn some interest, but they’re both controlled four more years after the current season and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2022-23 offseason at the earliest.

The 29-year-old Fry and 27-year-old Scott both offer plenty of club control in their own right. Both pitchers have an additional year of MLB service time over Sulser and Tate, making both arb-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 campaign. Either pitcher would make for an affordable upgrade who could impact his new club for several years down the road, and both pitchers have become increasingly appealing as the market context has changed this week.

This summer’s trade market was never particularly deep in high-quality left-handed relief help. But the injury to Minnesota’s Taylor Rogers, recent struggles for Washington’s Brad Hand, and the Athletics’ Monday acquisition of Andrew Chafin from the Cubs can only make the pair of Baltimore lefties all the more appealing.

Fry (60 2/3 innings) and Scott (61 innings) have near-identical innings totals over the past two seasons and have been similarly effective, relying on well above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Scott’s 2.51 ERA in that time has the edge on Fry’s 3.12 mark, but Fry has the edge in strikeout percentage (31.9 to 30.9) and ground-ball percentage (54.6 percent to 52.2 percent). Fry’s walk rate of 10.8 percent is worse than the league average but considerably lower than Scott’s mark of 14.3 percent. Scott, however, offers a blazing heater that has averaged 97 mph in 2021 and generates far more swinging strikes than Paul and his 93 mph fastball. It’s easy to see a club dreaming more on Scott’s stuff, but Fry’s demonstrably better control of the strike zone is a major point in his favor.

Naturally, Connolly suggests that there’s a split in other teams’ opinions on the pair of southpaws. Some figure prefer Fry’s less-dynamic repertoire but steadier control. Others will be drawn to Scott’s power arsenal. Kubatko reports that the Phillies, who have several former O’s execs in their front office, have been keeping tabs on the Baltimore bullpen. He also lists the Padres as a possibility.

Generally speaking, Fry and Scott are two of the market’s most appealing lefty relievers. The aforementioned Hand is sure to be available as the Nationals pivot to selling, but he’s also earning a $10.5MM salary this season and has surrendered eight runs in his past nine innings of work. It’s feasible that the Angels could move veteran Tony Watson, but their deadline direction remains unsettled and he’s a free agent at season’s end. Chasen Shreve, having a solid but unspectacular year in Pittsburgh, would also be a rental. Miami’s Richard Bleier is a quietly effective name who could likely be had in a trade, and even with Rogers down, the Twins have another interesting lefty in Caleb Thielbar. Both Bleier and Thielbar are 34 and lack even average fastball velocity, however.

Fry and Scott arguably offer the best combination of bottom-line results, quality stuff, age and remaining club control on the market at this point. That makes them more expensive in terms of prospects than rental veterans like Hand, Watson or Shreve, of course, but either would be a quality get for a contender’s relief corps.

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