Nationals Add Gerardo Parra, Chris Johnson To Coaching Staff
The Nationals announced their coaching staff for the 2024 season on Friday, confirming their previously reported hiring of bench coach Miguel Cairo and also revealing that former big leaguers Gerardo Parra and Chris Johnson will be on manager Davey Martinez’s staff next year. Parra, who played a key role with the Nationals in their World Series Championship 2019 season, will be the team’s first base coach. Johnson, who spent the 2023 season as an assistant hitting coach with the White Sox, will hold the same role in Washington.
Parra, 36, spent parts of a dozen seasons in the big leagues between the D-backs, Rockies, Nats, Brewers, Giants and Orioles in addition to one season with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants in 2020. He spent half the 2019 season with the Nats but played a significant role in their Cinderella run to a World Series title, operating as a key bench piece for Martinez and endearing himself both to the fanbase and in the clubhouse as a veteran leader. Parra famously co-opted “Baby Shark” as his walkup music and as a celebration/rallying cry for the Nats that year. He returned for a second stint with the Nats in ’21 before calling it quits as a player and joining the team’s front office as a special assistant.
Johnson, 39, retired as a player after the 2019 season. He spent parts of eight years in the Majors between Houston, Atlanta, Arizona, Cleveland and Miami, batting a combined .275/.313/.404 with 63 homers in just shy of 3000 plate appearances. His last contract was a minor league deal with the White Sox, who hired him as their Triple-A hitting coach prior to the 2021 season. He served in that role until joining the big league staff this past season. The Sox opted not to bring Johnson back for the 2024 campaign, with Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writing at season’s end that the team’s hitters were “torn between multiple hitting voices” on the team’s coaching staff. Presumably, Johnson’s philosophies better align with those of Coles — the veteran hitting coach who’ll be entering his third season with the Nationals.
Returning to the Nats’ staff in 2024 will be hitting coach Darnell Coles, pitching coach Jim Hickey, catching coach Henry Blanco and bullpen coach Ricky Bones. Ricky Gutierrez, who served as the team’s run prevention coordinator in 2023, will be the club’s new third base coach.
Cubs Will Give Christopher Morel Reps At First Base
The Cubs are planning to get slugger Christopher Morel some work at first base in winter ball this offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The 24-year-old Morel has impressed the club with his power through his first season-plus in the big leagues but has yet to settle into a defensive home. Hoyer noted that Morel is a “very capable second baseman,” but the presence of Nico Hoerner there and Dansby Swanson at shortstop clouds Morel’s positional outlook.
Morel made his big league debut with the Cubs in 2022, appearing in 113 games and taking 425 plate appearances while bouncing all over the field. He logged a nearly identical amount of playing time in a similar role this past season. On the whole, he’s played in 220 games, taken 854 plate appearances, and posted a combined .241/.311/.471 slash with 42 home runs and 16 steals.
The power Morel has to offer is obvious, but it comes with some red flags as well; Morel has fanned in 31.6% of his plate appearances. Though he draws walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip, the frequent punchouts lead to low batting averages and drag down his overall on-base percentage. Couple that with sub-par defensive grades at every position other than second base, and he’s been something of a square peg in a round hole on the Cubs’ roster.
Looking to the 2024 season, however, Chicago doesn’t have an obvious solution at first base. Free agent Cody Bellinger manned that position frequently in 2023 after a head-scratching run with Eric Hosmer didn’t pan out and after prospect Matt Mervis failed to hit the ground running. Mervis is still just 25 and has posted video game numbers in two Triple-A seasons, but he batted only .167/.242/.289 in 99 big league plate appearances during his debut. He could get another look this season, but Morel has already produced at the plate in the big leagues, so there’s plenty of sense in taking the offseason to see if he can handle the position to get his bat into the lineup.
Of course, given the lack of a clear fit on the Cubs’ roster, it’s only natural to wonder whether Morel might end up being utilized as a trade chip. Montemurro suggests such a path is possible for the Cubs, and Hoyer himself followed his comment about Morel being a capable second baseman by noting that “another team might be able to put him [at second base].” That said, Hoyer also noted that finding a defensive home for Morel on the Cubs’ roster “would be really valuable,” noting that first base specifically fits the Cubs’ needs.
There’s no definitive declaration that Morel will be shopped this winter, but it’s easy enough to see the appeal. Questions about his hit tool notwithstanding, when Morel does make contact, it’s typically quite loud. Beyond the raw home run numbers, he was in the 91st percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast. He also boasts 81st percentile sprint speed and 99th percentile arm strength on his throws (which would seem something of a waste at first base).
On top of the loud tools, Morel has less than two years of big league service time. Any club acquiring him would be picking up five years of control over him. Morel probably won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2025 season, although he’s on track to finish the 2024 campaign right on the cusp of Super Two eligibility, so there’s some chance that’ll come after the 2024 campaign. Regardless, he’s under team control through the 2028 season.
Zack Greinke Undecided On Future
Six-time All-Star Zack Greinke is still mulling whether he’ll continue his career in 2024, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told Jon Morosi of MLB.com at this week’s GM Meetings. The former Cy Young winner and likely Hall of Famer turned 40 in October.
Greinke has spent the past two seasons pitching with Kansas City — the same team that drafted and developed him. It’s been a full-circle homecoming and feel-good story for a lot of Royals fans, though the 2023 season didn’t go nearly as well as the 2022 campaign. In Greinke’s return to K.C. back in ’22, he tossed 137 innings of 3.68 ERA ball. That earned run average spiked to 5.06 over the life of 142 1/3 innings in 2023 — a season that saw Greinke post a 2-15 record. That mark has as much to do with a dismal Royals roster as it does with Greinke’s overall performance, but it surely wasn’t what Greinke envisioned heading into the year.
A return for his age-40 season afford Greinke the chance to reach at least one major milestone. He’s currently sitting at 2979 strikeouts in his career, and while he’s not the prolific strikeout artist he once was, he’d have no issue getting to 3000 if he returned for another full season. He’d become just the 20th pitcher in Major League history to reach that esteemed mark.
At this stage of his career, it’s not clear whether Greinke would have an appetite for pitching anywhere other than in Kansas City. He reportedly turned down similar, if not larger offers from the Twins and Tigers in the 2021-22 offseason, preferring to go back home to where his career began. He wasn’t connected to any other teams last offseason before returning to the Royals on another one-year deal. Greinke earned a $13MM base salary with the Royals in 2022 and an $8.5MM base last year — though he picked up another $4.5MM of incentives based on his innings total. Presumably, he’d be in line for a lesser base salary if he opts to return, though an agreement could have a similar incentives package based on starts and/or innings pitched.
From a team vantage point, bringing Greinke back to soak up some innings and give fans a few more memories could make sense. The Royals have struggled immensely to develop pitchers. Their vaunted crop of college arms from the 2018-20 draft classes simply hasn’t panned out to date, with only Brady Singer finding a full season’s worth of above-average production at any point. That came in 2022, but Singer took a pronounced step back in 2023. Fellow highly touted college picks like Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Asa Lacy have yet to emerge as viable big league starters.
Kansas City does look to have unearthed a gem in plucking Cole Ragans from the Rangers in this past summer’s Aroldis Chapman trade. The former first-rounder turned in a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 12 starts following the trade. In doing so, he locked up a 2024 rotation spot. Singer and Lynch also figure to get looks, and Kansas City still has Jordan Lyles under contract through the ’24 season as well. Greinke could eat up some innings beyond that quartet while taking pressure off some still-developing starters — if he chooses to continue his career, of course.
Yankees Have Discussed Kevin Kiermaier
The Yankees are in the market for multiple outfielders this winter, and one name they’ve discussed as a possibility is free agent Kevin Kiermaier, per Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. The longtime division rival has spent his entire career to this point with the Rays and the Blue Jays.
Although he’s now squarely in his mid-30s, the 34-year-old Kiermaier remains one of the preeminent defensive center fielders in baseball. He signed a one-year deal with Toronto last offseason after undergoing season-ending hip surgery with Tampa Bay in 2022 and showed minimal ill effects, posting gaudy marks of 18 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Outs Above Average in 981 innings of center field work. He also turned in an above-average line at the plate, batting .265/.322/.419. Kiermaier added 14 steals (in 15 attempts), popped eight home runs and tallied 21 doubles and six triples.
It’s a tantalizing package of talent, but Kiermaier’s durability — or rather, his lack thereof — has limited his career to this point. He avoided any notable injuries in 2023, missing time only due to an elbow laceration, but he’s averaged just 105 games per 162-game season dating back to 2017. Overall, he’s played in just 65.7% of his team’s possible games in that time, owing to a litany of injuries. That includes not only the aforementioned hip surgery, but also a wrist sprain, a torn ligament in his thumb, a hip fracture and a broken hand.
While some of the injuries have been standard-fare bad luck, the devil-may-care level of reckless abandon with which Kiermaier plays center field also leaves him prone to injury. He’s a clear-cut elite defender, but his willingness to dive for balls and crash into the outfield wall at full speed have been to the detriment of his health at times.
That said, Kiermaier’s left-handed bat would be a nice fit with the Yankees’ short porch. He’s long had roughly average power output — career .159 ISO, career-high 15 home runs — but it’s easy to see Yankee Stadium producing a few extra long balls for him if he can remain healthy. That’s far from a guarantee, given his track record, but Kiermaier would give the Yanks a left-handed bat and premium defender — something they’ve recently lacked in the outfield. In the likely event that he misses time, Aaron Judge has shown himself capable of sliding over to center field.
Kiermaier signed a one-year, $9MM contract last winter coming off hip surgery. It stands to reason that he ought to command a notably larger deal coming off a healthy and productive season — particularly given the lack of quality outfielders on the free agent market. Whether he’ll command a guaranteed multi-year deal with such a lengthy injury history remains an open question, but he certainly has the case to push for one after a strong all-around ’23 campaign in Toronto.
Orioles Seeking Additions For Top Half Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen
The Orioles’ rebuild came to a definitive end with this year’s 101-win season, and general manager Mike Elias is already speaking accordingly as he enters his sixth offseason with the team. Elias tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that adding a starting pitcher who “projects for the front half of the rotation would be wonderful” and that he also hopes to add a late-inning reliever — ideally someone with closing experience.
The free-agent market isn’t short on either type of pitcher. Playoff-caliber starters in free agency include Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, to say nothing of incoming NPB stars like 25-year-old righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga.
Currently, the Orioles’ rotation is set to include Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Assuming he’s back to health after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, southpaw John Means should slot into the group. Other options include Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and prospect Cade Povich (who’s not yet on the 40-man roster but will surely be added by next week). Baltimore starters ranked 11th in the Majors with a 4.14 ERA this year — a mark that includes results from current free agents Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty.
As far as relievers go, former O’s prospect Josh Hader tops the class and could set a record for largest contract ever given to a reliever. Beyond him, former closing options on the market include David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel.
The trade market, of course, will feature prominent names in both regards, but the Orioles’ payroll is practically a blank slate, which gives them the opportunity to pursue just about any pitcher — assuming ownership is willing to commit to a long-term free agent for the first time in Elias’ tenure. Incredibly, James McCann and Felix Bautista — owed a combined $3.5MM in 2024 — are the only two players guaranteed any money this coming season.
Of course, the Orioles also have a deep and talented arbitration class. Each of Anthony Santander, John Means, Danny Coulombe, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Ryan O’Hearn, Dillon Tate, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Cionel Perez, Cole Irvin, Keegan Akin, Jacob Webb, Ramon Urias, Tyler Wells, Ryan McKenna and recent waiver claim Sam Hilliard is eligible for arbitration. That whopping group of 17 players projects to combine for $56.17MM in arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Some from the bunch will be non-tendered or traded, but the most expensive names among the bunch (Santander, Mullins, Hays, Means, Mountcastle) seem likely to stay put.
Not long ago, a reliever with closing experience might not have seemed like a dire need for the O’s, but All-Star Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign as a result. The O’s have another All-Star, Yennier Cano, as a potential alternative option in the ninth inning, though he was far more successful in the season’s first three months (1.14 ERA) than in the second three (3.24 ERA). That’s not at all to suggest he can’t be an effective endgame option for the Birds, but rather to simply point out that as the year progressed, Cano didn’t quite look to be Bautista’s equal (as he did in the earlygoing).
The Orioles’ ability to add to the pitching staff (and payroll in general) is only buoyed by the fact that so much of the team’s excellent young core is not yet even into arbitration. Each of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Bradish, Rodriguez and Cano will make league minimum or only slightly more in 2024. The same is true of prospects like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday, each of whom could play a significant role for the ’24 club.
It’ll likely become a rather expensive core at some point, but for the time being, their minimal financial commitments give the O’s considerable flexibility to creatively pursue just about any pitcher they like. High-profile arms seeking short-term rebound deals could fit into the payroll for a year or two without issue, and if the Orioles want to pursue a longer-term fit, they could always frontload the contract to pay out more of the guarantee in 2024-25, when the so much of the roster is still in its pre-arbitration years.
White Sox Eyeing Short-Term Veterans At Shortstop
For the first time in seven years, the White Sox appear likely to head into a season with someone other than Tim Anderson penciled in as their primary shortstop. The Sox bought out Anderson’s $14MM club option, and while a potential reunion isn’t entirely off the table, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that new GM Chris Getz is looking for a veteran option with good defensive skills who can be signed on a short-term deal. The idea would be for that veteran pickup to serve as a bridge to top prospect Colson Montgomery, who’s on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024.
Anderson turned in some strong defensive seasons early in his career, but metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have soured on his glovework in recent years. He’s seemingly acknowledged as much, expressing a willingness to move to second base if need be. In all likelihood, Anderson no longer fits the description of what Getz is targeting for this role.
[Related: Previewing the 2023-24 Free Agent Class — Shortstops]
It’s a bleak crop of free-agent shortstops, though there are certainly a fair number of glove-first options who’d fit this billing. Longtime D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed has been one of the sport’s premier defenders at the position since making his big league debut a decade ago. He’s never been a big threat at the plate — although he hits lefties fairly well — and shoulder injuries have tanked his past couple seasons. He missed almost the entire 2022 season due to surgery and hit just .212/.257/.303 in 210 plate appearances before being released by Arizona.
That said, Ahmed did manage a .257/.319/.428 batting line from 2019-20. He’s a career .257/.309/.430 hitter against southpaws. He also ranks eighth among all big leaguers, regardless of position, with 79 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting him with a sensational 111 Outs Above Average in that time — second among all Major Leaguers, trailing only Francisco Lindor.
Elsewhere on the market, Paul DeJong has a long track record of quality glovework at shortstop, though his bat has wilted after a strong three-year run to begin his career in 2017-19. Since 2020, he’s turned in a grisly .200/.273/.352 batting line in 1213 trips to the plate. He was traded from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays at this year’s deadline but cut loose both in Toronto and later by San Francisco. DeJong was hitting .233/.297/.412 at the time of the trade but posted a disastrous .129/.128/.183 output between the Jays and Giants.
Speaking of the Giants, longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford‘s contract expired at season’s end. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career and would certainly provide the Sox with a plus glove on a short-term deal, though he hasn’t yet made up his mind on whether he’ll continue his career into the 2024 season, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. Even if Crawford doesn’t retire, the soon-to-be 37-year-old might prefer to join a team with a clearer path to the postseason, if such an opportunity presents itself.
There are other options to consider. A reunion with Elvis Andrus could make some sense, and there are buy-low options like Amed Rosario to consider. Perhaps the Sox could pursue a multi-position option with some shortstop experience; Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all available. Urshela and Wendle have played more third base than shortstop, however, while Kiner-Falefa logged just eight innings there in ’23 and Rosario hasn’t turned in particularly strong defensive grades overall.
Whoever takes the reins, he’ll do so knowing that one of the sport’s top prospects is breathing down his neck. Montgomery, 21, posted a .287/.456/.484 batting line across three minor league levels in 2023 and ranks among the game’s top 20 prospects at FanGrahps (No. 12), Baseball America (No. 14) and MLB.com (No. 17). He climbed as high as the Double-A level in 2023 and will open the 2024 season either back at that level (presumably for a brief stint) or in Triple-A. Montgomery was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 draft, and he’ll get the opportunity to prove he can be the South Siders’ shortstop of the future before long.
Astros Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Maldonado, Neris
The Astros advanced to their seventh consecutive League Championship Series in 2023 but fell shy of a third straight World Series bid when the division-rival and eventual World Series Champion Rangers knocked them off in a thrilling seven-game series. They’ll head into the winter with a trio of notable relievers hitting free agency (Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek) and with a rotation that’s a bit thinned out by to injuries of Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor tendon surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). Veteran Michael Brantley is also returning to the open market.
Despite a plethora of needs up and down the roster, general manager Dana Brown openly acknowledged at this week’s GM Meetings that his team doesn’t “have a ton” of financial flexibility heading into the offseason (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). That’s unwelcome news for ‘Stros fans, though Brown suggested that if the right situation presented itself, owner Jim Crane might push beyond his current comfort levels.
As it stands, strong rookie performances from the likes of Hunter Brown and J.P. France give Houston a quality group of six starters on which to lean. Reacquired ace Justin Verlander, lefty Framber Valdez and righties Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy round out the rotation options.
Verlander will pitch next season at 41, however, while Valdez and Javier faltered a bit as the year wore on; Javier’s rotation spot was skipped a couple times over the summer as he labored through mixed results, while Valdez turned in a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over his final 99 innings before being rocked for 12 earned runs in 12 postseason frames. Urquidy spent several months on the injured list and turned in 73 innings of 5.30 ERA ball between the regular season and playoffs combined.
The depth beyond those six is more concerning. Righties Shawn Dubin and Brandon Bielak both had rough showings in Triple-A. The latter tossed 80 innings of 3.83 ball in the big leagues but did so with a 10.2% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and too many home runs allowed (1.35 HR/9) to necessarily bank on a repeat. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, also on the 40-man roster, posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 Triple-A frames.
Brown indicated to reporters that he’d be open to opportunities to add “a legit third starter or better.” Logically speaking, doing so without radically increasing the payroll would likely require operating on the trade market rather than in free agency. It sounds as though that’s viewed more as a luxury than a priority anyhow; McCullers and Garcia are expected back sometime in July, and Brown instead called the bullpen and backup catcher “priorities.”
To that end, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that the ‘Stros and longtime catcher Martin Maldonado could continue their relationship. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the two parties have mutual interest in a reunion, adding that Brown has already met with Maldonado’s agent, Dan Lozano, during this week’s GM Meetings. The Astros have publicly declared that Yainer Diaz will be their primary catcher in 2024, but as Brown himself spelled out, adding an experienced backup is a goal.
Houston has stuck with Maldonado for four and a half years despite the fact that he’s perhaps been MLB’s least-productive hitter during that time. Over the past three seasons in particular, Maldonado has been a liability at the dish. In 1212 plate appearances since 2021, he’s turned in a .183/.260/.333 — about 34% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. However, the Astros are enamored of Maldonado’s game-calling, game-planning and broad defensive skills. Maldonado ranks among the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past four years, although his framing skills fell off a cliff in 2023 and his caught-stealing rate has steadily declined.
Houston clearly loves Maldonado’s work with their pitching staff, however, and the organization would surely welcome him working in a mentor role to Diaz, whom they hope can cement himself as the catcher of the future. Add in that a new deal with Maldonado in a reduced role would undoubtedly be a low-cost arrangement, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see them hammer something out. Maldonado earned $5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM last year.
Maldonado isn’t the only former Astro who’s on the radar. Via Rome, Brown acknowledged that he’s also spoken with Neris’ representatives at Octagon about a new deal, though there’s no indication a new deal is close to fruition. Neris turned down an $8.5MM player option and although he’s 34 years old will quite likely be able to secure a multi-year pact on the open market this winter after turning in a sub-2.00 ERA in his second season with Houston.
Turning to a pair of Astros icons, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering the final year of their contracts. Brown has been forthcoming about his desire to make the pair lifelong Astros, but agent Scott Boras — who represents both players — said at this week’s meetings that contract talks have not yet begun (link via Kawahara).
Astros fans will want to check out the pieces from both Kawahara and Rome in full, as they’re rife with refreshingly straightforward answers from Brown — the type of candor that many of his peers throughout the league generally shy away from offering. Beyond acknowledging priorities in the bullpen and behind the plate as well as interest in bolstering the rotation, Brown suggested that outfield won’t be a primary focus this offseason, given the presence of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers. That doesn’t expressly rule out an addition — unexpected opportunities on the trade market, for instance, could always arise — but it doesn’t seem that’s a hot-button issue for the Astros at the moment.
Breslow: Red Sox Receiving Trade Inquiries On Alex Verdugo
Newly minted Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow candidly acknowledged to reporters at the GM Meetings today that he’s already received trade interest in outfielder Alex Verdugo (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). While there’s no indication that a deal is at all close, it’s nevertheless notable to hear a baseball operations leader willingly offer up that they’ve received trade interest in a player of note.
Verdugo stands as a logical offseason trade candidate for a few reasons. Boston fielded interest in the outfielder prior to the trade deadline but ultimately didn’t receive an offer to the now-former front office regime’s liking. The 27-year-old Verdugo is also entering his final season of club control and doing so at a time when Boston is at least relatively deep in outfield alternatives. Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Wilyer Abreu and top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela are all options to start in the outfield. Given the light free-agent market for hitters, Verdugo could hold some extra appeal to teams looking for bats. he turned in a solid .264/.324/.421 batting line this past season and is a .281/.338/.424 hitter in four seasons with the Sox.
While Verdugo was open about his desire to sign an extension with Boston over the summer, no deal materialized. To the contrary, his name actually surfaced in trade rumblings about a month later. While a swap didn’t come together, the juxtaposition was still notable. Verdugo also appeared to clash with skipper Alex Cora, to an extent, on multiple occasions; he was benched both in May and in August — first for not running out a grounder and secondly for a late arrival to the park.
Verdugo told The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey in October that he had no hard feelings, hoped to remain in Boston, and attributed some of those mental lapses to dealing with family and personal issues away from the field. “I’m not here to read out my sob story, but at the end of the day, I am still a human,” he said at the time. “I’m still a person. When your family is affected, when your family’s not doing the best, it weighs on you.”
The 2023 season was an uneven one for Verdugo, who hit at an All-Star level for four months but endured woeful slumps in July (.151/.232/.247) and September (.178/.208/.301). The rest of his season was strong enough — June in particular — that he still finished out the year with roughly league-average offensive output, but it was still the least-productive full season of his big league career to date.
It’s common for incoming front office personnel to shake up the roster and to show less loyalty to players who might’ve been drafted, developed and/or acquired by the former regime. That’s worth bearing in mind as Breslow takes over; he’s not the one who acquired Verdugo from the Dodgers as part of the Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster — that falls to Chaim Bloom.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Verdugo to earn $9.2MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — a perfectly reasonable price point for a solid, if not quite star-caliber outfielder. That’s all the more true in an offseason market where free agency is light on quality MLB hitters — particularly those who are anywhere near their physical prime. Were he a free agent right now, Verdugo would surely be a sought-after bat in position to land a multi-year deal. Being able to acquire him on a one-year pact in the $9-10MM range should hold broad appeal. That’s all the more true given Verdugo’s strong defensive ratings in right field this year.
Plenty of teams will be on the hunt for outfield help. The Guardians, Astros, Braves, White Sox, Marlins and archrival Yankees are among the teams likely in that camp (not that any have yet been tied specifically to Verdugo). Last month, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some possible fits in the event that Verdugo were to hit the market.
Guardians, Adam Oller Agree To Minor League Deal
The Guardians have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Adam Oller, reports Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2. The Gaeta Sports client will receive an invitation to Major League spring training and reunite with former teammate and new Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt with this deal.
Oller, 29, was traded from the Mets to the A’s alongside prospect J.T. Ginn in the 2021-22 offseason trade that sent Chris Bassitt from Oakland to Queens. He spent parts of two seasons with the A’s and logged 94 innings between their rotation and bullpen, but Oller was hit hard in that time. Big league opponents turned in a .294/.378/.556 batting line against Oller in spite of his pitcher-friendly home environs, and by the time Oakland designated him for assignment, he’d been roughed up for a 7.09 ERA. The right-hander has fanned 13.5% of his opponents against an 11.6% walk rate.
Major League struggles notwithstanding, Oller was sharp at the Triple-A level both in 2021 with the Mets (2.45 ERA in 44 innings) and in 2022 with the A’s (3.69 ERA in 31 1/3 innings). He struggled with the top affiliates of both the A’s and Mariners (who claimed him from Oakland) during the most recent campaign, but Oller’s overall minor league track record has the look of a potential depth starter or swingman if he can shake off a tough ’23 campaign.
The Guardians’ pitching staff experienced an enormous amount of turnover in 2023, but Cleveland’s nearly unrivaled ability to churn out quality arms remained on display. A series of injuries and poor performances led the Guards to call up top prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams for each pitcher’s big league debut, and all three hit the ground running. That trio looks like the focal point of the rotation moving forward.
Cleveland surely hopes that impressive young righty Triston McKenzie will be back to full strength to join them after a teres major strain and a UCL sprain shortened his season. Former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has another year of club control remaining, but he was limited by injuries as well and has been floated as a potential offseason trade candidate with just one year to go before he reaches the open market. Cal Quantrill, who struggled immensely in 2023, is also still under club control, while depth options like Xzavion Curry, Joey Cantillo and Hunter Gaddis are all on the 40-man roster, too.
Phillies Among Teams Showing Interest In Sonny Gray
The Phillies are among the teams with interest in free agent right-hander Sonny Gray, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phils have obvious interest in retaining their own top free agent starter, Aaron Nola, and would become a more aggressive suitor for Gray if Nola ultimately lands elsewhere, per the report. As Morosi further points out, there’s a natural Phillies/Gray connection, as Philadelphia pitching coach Caleb Cotham worked with Gray in Cincinnati and was also a college teammate of Gray at Vanderbilt. Beyond that, while Gray’s relatively brief stint with the Yankees didn’t go well, it’s perhaps worth pointing out that his more successful 2017 output in the Bronx overlapped with current Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s final year as bench coach there.
Gray, who turned 34 yesterday, just wrapped up one of the best seasons of his career, tossing 184 frames of 2.79 ERA ball for the AL Central-winning Twins. Gray added a sharp five innings of shutout ball in the AL Wild Card round, pushing the Twins to a series victory over the Blue Jays, though he faltered against the Astros in the ALDS when he allowed four runs in the first inning of his start there (before recovering, to an extent, to last four innings on the day). He’s already been named an AL Cy Young finalist, although it’s widely expected that he’ll be a runner-up to frontrunner Gerrit Cole for the award.
Minnesota extended a qualifying offer to Gray, though given his track record and a top-three finish in AL Cy Young voting, he’s all but a lock to turn that down in favor of testing the open market. Gray previously and candidly acknowledged that “money is not the ultimate factor for me” in free agency and professed his affinity for pitching in the Twin Cities, but it’d nevertheless be a shock to see him accept that one-year offer when a lucrative multi-year deal awaits him in free agency. Chris Bassitt, who inked a three-year, $63MM deal with Toronto after rejecting a qualifying offer at the same age last offseason, represents something of a floor for Gray in free agency.
While some teams balk at signing free agents who’ve rejected qualifying offers — doing so requires forfeitures in the draft and international free agency — the Phillies don’t fall into that camp. Philadelphia owner John Middleton has been willing to accept that burden on a near-annual basis, in fact. The Phils have forfeited draft picks and international money to sign each of Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta. And while they technically didn’t forfeit a pick to sign J.T. Realmuto, they’d have received a comp pick had he left the team to sign elsewhere, but the Phils re-upped with him on a five-year pact.
Given that history, there’s little reason to think the Phillies wouldn’t be willing to take a similar approach with Gray. It’s not clear whether they’d wait for Nola to actually commit to another team before pursuing alternatives, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is known for generally acting quickly and rather decisively on the market. If the Phils get the sense that the Nola bidding will extend beyond their comfort zone, it’s at least feasible they could pivot to an alternative plan before he actually signs a contract — be that alternative Gray or one of the many other veteran starters on the market (e.g. Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell).
The Phillies currently have a projected payroll around $214MM, per Roster Resource, which is a ways shy of last year’s $245MM mark. Signing Gray, retaining Nola or adding any of the prominent free-agent alternatives would likely thrust the Phils right back into luxury tax territory, but they were willing to cross that bridge in each of the past two seasons.
Whether it’s Nola, Gray or another outside acquisition, the Phillies are all but guaranteed to bring in some rotation help this winter. As it stands, their rotation group consists of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t all that far from MLB readiness, but a team with World Series aspirations will surely seek more certainty than that. Fellow top prospect Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July, removing him as a near-term option. Nick Nelson, Dylan Covey and recent waiver claim Josh Fleming are all depth candidates, but it’s clear that someone more stable will be brought in.
As with any report of this nature, it bears emphasizing that Gray very likely is not the sole alternative to Nola the Phillies will consider. In all likelihood, Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office will engage with the representatives for all top-tier and mid-tier starters, both to gauge expectations and to have contingencies in place if their preferred plans of attack don’t pan out. But Gray does at least have some personal ties to members of the Phillies’ staff, and the team has shown a repeated willingness to spend at high levels to sign qualified free agents in addition to a willingness to incur luxury tax penalties.
All of that context is important in their rotation pursuits. Philadelphia will likely be tied to Montgomery and others as well before too long, and they’ll surely be prominent players through the bulk, if not the entirety, of Nola’s own foray into the open market.