Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India
Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.
Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.
McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.
It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.
Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.
Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.
India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.
Pirates’ Johan Oviedo Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury
An already murky Pirates rotation mix is now facing even more uncertainty, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that righty Johan Oviedo is dealing with an arm injury that’s believed to be serious. The team hasn’t announced details or a precise diagnosis, but Mackey writes that Tommy John surgery is among the potential outcomes, so it would seem there’s some degree of ligament damage at play.
Oviedo, 25, came to the Pirates in the 2022 trade that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the division-rival Cardinals. Prior to the revelation of this injury, the righty had been locked into a 2024 rotation spot after taking the ball 32 times and pitching to a 4.31 ERA over the life of 177 2/3 innings. It’s hardly elite production, particularly when coupled with sub-par strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10.6%) rates, but Oviedo at least looked like a solid fourth starter who could be relied upon to take the ball every fifth game and keep his club in the game more often than not. Obviously, the mention of even potential Tommy John surgery throws a major wrench into that projection.
That’s particularly problematic news for a Pirates team that is generally lacking in established starters. Longtime top prospect Mitch Keller took a step forward in 2022-23 and is the unquestioned leader of the staff, but certainty thereafter is minimal. Right-hander Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023, while fellow righty JT Brubaker had his own Tommy John surgery. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had some past success with the Phillies but struggled between both Pennsylvania clubs in 2023. Young right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester each made at least 10 appearances, but neither cemented himself as a big leaguer. Alternative options like Osvaldo Bido, Jackson Wolf and Kyle Nicolas are similarly unproven.
General manager Ben Cherington has already stated publicly that his focus has been on starting pitching. Cherington presumably knew of Oviedo’s situation at the time of those comments, so this may not necessarily add any urgency to that search, but the revelation of Oviedo’s injury adds context for potential trade partners and agents as the Bucs explore ways to add to the rotation. With such ample uncertainty beyond Keller, it’d be fairly surprising if the Pirates didn’t add at least two arms to the rotation group for the upcoming season (to say nothing of veteran depth on minor league deals and some potential pickups of 40-man starters with minor league options remaining).
As things stand, the Pirates project for just a $53MM payroll in 2024, per Roster Resource. Even by their bottom-of-the-league standards, that leaves ample room for the team to add some experienced arms to the staff. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only players under guaranteed contracts, while the quintet of Keller, Brubaker, Ryan Borucki, David Bednar and Connor Joe are eligible for arbitration. Pittsburgh’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was just shy of $100MM back in 2016. They operated with a payroll a bit north of $70MM in 2023.
Oviedo isn’t even arbitration-eligible yet and won’t be until after the 2024 season. He’s currently under club control for another four years, so even in the event that Oviedo does require UCL surgery, the Bucs could potentially get another three years out of him (2025-27) before he reaches free agency.
Reds Sign P.J. Higgins To Minor League Deal
The Reds announced Monday that they’ve signed catcher/infielder P.J. Higgins to a minor league contract. The Bledsoe Agency client will receive an invitation to big league camp in spring training.
Higgins, 30, logged Major League time with the Cubs in 2021-22, batting a combined .210/.291/.348 with six home runs, 11 doubles and a triple in 254 trips to the plate. Modest as that production may be, Higgins has spent parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level and clobbered opposing pitchers at that level, posting a .318/.401/.499 slash in 672 overall plate appearances.
Beyond the production at the plate in the upper minors, Higgins has some quiet versatility that could help him eventually win a spot on Cincinnati’s bench. He’s primarily been a catcher in his professional career, but the Cubs have also given him 867 career innings at first base, 584 innings at third base, 93 innings at second base and even 37 frames at shortstop. If he can ultimately deliver anything within a stone’s throw of league-average production at the plate, he could make for an interesting bench player — particularly for a Reds club that carried three catchers for much of the 2023 season (Tyler Stephenson, Luke Maile, Curt Casali).
As things stand, Stephenson and the recently re-signed Maile figure to handle considerable work behind the plate. That said, Stephenson was more productive at the plate when he was playing first base or serving as a designated hitter than when he was catching — and his glovework behind the dish also graded out quite poorly. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Reds again opt for three catchers, with Stephenson spending ample time at first and DH. Higgins could potentially factor into that equation if he impresses next spring. He hasn’t drawn particularly strong defensive grades in limited action in the majors, though Baseball America touted him as at least an average defender at catcher before his MLB debut.
Yankees Name James Rowson Hitting Coach
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve hired James Rowson as their new hitting coach. He’d reportedly been offered the position last week.
Rowson, 47, is no stranger to the Yankees organization, having spent nine years as a minor league hitting coach and minor league hitting coordinator. He’s spent the past nine seasons on Major League coaching staffs, most recently working with the 2023 Tigers as their assistant hitting coach. Rowson has also served as a bench coach and “offensive coordinator” with the Marlins and the hitting coach with the Twins.
The 2024 season will be Rowson’s tenth on a Major League staff. Perhaps most notable on his resume was his third and final season in Minnesota, when he was the hitting coach for a Twins roster that set a Major League record with 307 home runs on the season. The year of the Twins’ “Bomba Squad,” as they were nicknamed, coincided with MLB’s juiced ball season, but it was nonetheless an impressive season for the lineup and one for which Rowson drew plenty of credit. The Marlins offered him a promotion and hired him away from Minnesota that offseason.
Rowson will replace outgoing hitting coach Sean Casey, who took the role midseason after the Yankees fired Dillon Lawson. Casey seemed to make an immediate impression on Yankees hitters, but after spending half a year on the job, he came to the conclusion that the time away from his family over the course of a full season would simply be too much. Casey said on October 25 that he planned to return home to spend more time with his two young daughters, stating that time for him simply isn’t “perfect” at this juncture. He did leave the door open for a possible return to coaching “in the next few years.”
With this hire, the Yankees are trotting out their fourth hitting coach in as many seasons and surely hoping that Rowson will have some staying power. The Yanks opted not to retain Marcus Thames following the 2021 season, and they’ve since quickly moved on from Lawson and seen Casey cite family reasons for his own departure. There’s always the possibility, of course, that another club will pry Rowson away with for a more prominent role. In addition to his three seasons as a bench coach in Miami, he’s also previously interviewed for the Twins’ managerial vacancy that went to Rocco Baldelli and was reportedly one of three finalists in the Red Sox’ most recent managerial search. That only speaks to how well regarded Rowson is throughout the industry, however.
Rays Rumors: Glasnow, Ramirez, Margot
The Rays head into the 2024 season with a projected franchise-record payroll north of $125MM — a stark increase from previous highwater marks in the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander said a month ago that the team is capable of and open to trotting out a new record mark, although there’s a stark difference between broadcasting the ability to increase payroll to some unspecified extent and projecting for about a 50% increase over their previous record.
Unsurprisingly, that’s thrust several notable Rays players into the rumor mill. Chief among them is ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s set to earn $25MM in 2024 before reaching free agency. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times have written in the past 24 hours on the potential of a Glasnow trade at some point this offseason. As Rosenthal points out, the Rays figure to extend a qualifying offer to Glasnow following the ’24 season if he’s not traded, and the potentially recouped draft pick will factor into what already figures to be a lofty asking price.
The Rays will be able to hold out for a larger return, knowing they’d have another opportunity to shop Glasnow at the trade deadline if their season goes south. Even if they hold onto Glasnow for the whole year, the draft pick they pick up would likely come at the end of the first round of the ’25 draft. They’d need a trade package to outweigh not only a full season of Glasnow but also a draft pick around No. 30. Similarly, any team acquiring Glasnow in the offseason would be acquiring the right to make that QO themselves. The compensatory pick another club would receive for qualifying Glasnow would be dependent on that team’s revenue-sharing and luxury-tax statuses, but it’ll clearly factor into valuing a Glasnow package for both the Rays and potential trade partners.
At the time Glasnow signed his extension in 2022, it was genuinely surprising to see him ink a deal that bought out just one free-agent year — even as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow spoke candidly about how Tampa Bay was where he wanted to be. Any player signing a long-term deal with the Rays likely does so knowing that an eventual trade is a possibility, however.
Glasnow’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery was hampered by an oblique injury, although he still posted 120 good innings: 3.53 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 51.2% ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (3.08) felt he pitched quite a bit better than his earned run average would otherwise indicate. With 120 innings under his belt and more than two years elapsed since his surgery, it stands to reason that there won’t be many (if any) innings restrictions on Glasnow in 2024.
There’s no indication a Glasnow trade is close or even necessarily likely. Interest in him will persist so long as he remains with the Rays, as their payroll situation is obvious and demand for high-end rotation help is always strong. For the time being, however, a far more pressing trade candidate could be right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, whom Topkin suggests is a candidate to change hands with this week’s deadlines to set 40-man rosters prior to the Rule 5 Draft (Tuesday) and to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players (Friday).
The 29-year-old Ramirez doesn’t bring much defensive value to the table, having operated primarily as a designated hitter this past season. He’s logged time at first base and in both outfield corners in the past, though he hasn’t graded out all that well. However, Ramirez also slashed a robust .313/.353/.460 this season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $4.4MM salary in 2024.
The Rays control Ramirez for another two seasons, but they’re already a heavily right-handed team and might want to open some more flexibility at the designated hitter spot. There’s also the question of whether Ramirez can be expected to repeat this past season’s career-best production. The bulk of his damage came against lefties, whom he tattooed at a ridiculous .387/.411/.555 clip — but that was with the benefit of a sky-high .447 average on balls in play. That’ll be tough to repeat, though Ramirez’s knack for putting the ball in play (career 17.8% strikeout rate) has helped him maintain a lifetime .289 average in the big leagues. He doesn’t supplement that with many walks or all that much power, but he’s a clearly a talented hitter who could pique the interest of any club looking for a righty bat to plug into its first base/corner outfield/DH mix.
Along those same lines, Topkin lists Manuel Margot as a possible trade candidate. The fleet-footed outfielder has previously graded as a plus defender across all three spots, though last year’s defensive grades took a dip after he missed most of the 2022 season due to patellar tendon strain in his right knee. The righty-swinging Margot turned in a .264/.310/.376 slash in 2023 and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 — the final season of his contract.
Margot could draw interest from clubs looking for a right-handed bat to play across the outfield — particularly if an interested party believes that his defensive ratings will tick back up the further removed he is from that significant knee injury. To be clear, Margot didn’t necessarily grade as a poor outfielder, but last year’s -3 Defensive Runs Saved and +3 Outs Above Average were well shy of the respective marks of 13 and 16 that he posted in his last full, healthy season (2021).
Margot’s production at the plate last year aligned almost perfectly with his broader marks in four seasons with the Rays, for whom he’s been a .264/.317/.375 hitter. In particular, Margot has been a thorn in the side of left-handers, posting a career .281/.341/.420 line when holding the platoon advantage. The Rays have several other outfield options (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Ramirez, Greg Jones) and a knack for finding undervalued bats on the trade market, which could make them all the more willing to move Margot for future pieces while simultaneously paring back payroll in a meaningful way.
Braves Notes: Grissom, Rotation, Payroll
The Braves’ decision to decline their $9MM club option on Eddie Rosario created a vacancy in left field, and the team is still deciding how to go about patching that need. Among internal options, former top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom appears to be the leading candidate. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that playing Grissom in left field is a possibility “because he’s a tremendous athlete” (link via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that Anthopoulos also said at last week’s GM Meetings that Grissom has already expressed an openness to play anywhere on the field.
Grissom, 23 in January, broke into the Majors on a blistering hot streak in 2022, hitting .347/.398/.558 in his first 103 plate appearances. His bat went cold to close out that season, however, and he didn’t provide much offense in scattershot looks throughout the 2023 campaign. In all, he’s followed those 103 torrid trips to the plate with 133 plate appearances of .240/.293/.289 output. However, Grissom looked like he little to prove in Triple-A this past season, mashing at a .330/.419/.501 rate in a much larger sample of 468 plate appearances.
Though the organization is clearly open to the idea of testing Grissom’s natural athleticism in the outfield, it should be noted that he’s yet to log a single professional inning on the grass. He’s played exclusively shortstop (2140 innings), second base (792 innings) and third base (235 innings) between the big leagues and the minors, playing the two middle infield spots exclusively in the big leagues.
Of course, regular playing time at any of those spots will be hard to come by in 2024. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have second base and third base locked down, respectively. Former utilityman Orlando Arcia seized the everyday shortstop job after Dansby Swanson departed in free agency, hitting .264/.321/.420 with 17 home runs in 139 games. It’s fair to point out that Arcia has a limited track record and also faded in the season’s final month (.200/.260/.316 from Sept. 1 onward), but the strength of his season overall should earn him another look in 2024. Besides, one of the very reasons Arcia was given an everyday look at shortstop was due to the organization’s concerns with Grissom’s defensive abilities at the position.
External options abound, with the free-agent market including the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Brantley and Tommy Pham, among others (to say nothing of a potential lower-cost reunion with Rosario). Trade options include Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Dylan Carlson, to name just a few. Going with Grissom would allow the Braves to get a longer look at a top homegrown talent while also saving some payroll to allocate to the team’s expected pursuit of a starting pitcher. At the same time, bringing in an external option could free the possibility of including Grissom as part of a trade package to add a starter who might be more cost effective than a free agent.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Braves expect to pursue at least one arm this offseason, listing longtime division rival Aaron Nola as potential fit (albeit in somewhat speculative fashion) due to his southern roots and his relationship with current Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz (Nola’s former bullpen/pitching coach in Philly).
Despite their bevy of long-term contract extensions, the Braves have thus far resisted going beyond a $22MM average annual value for any player on their roster. Anthopoulos has spoken in the past as to how that’s not a limitation that’s written in stone, however; the Braves paid Josh Donaldson $23MM on his one-year deal, for instance, and they’re surely held interest in free agents who’d command a larger AAV than that. Rosenthal reports that for “the right pitcher,” the Braves would be willing to extend beyond a $22MM AAV.
Whether that’s Nola, NL Cy Young frontrunner Blake Snell, NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, a trade candidate or an extension candidate (i.e. Max Fried) remains to be seen. Rosenthal points out that the Braves don’t have a Scott Boras client on the current roster — Snell and Yamamoto are repped by Boras — though I’d add that like the $22MM AAV, that’s not a hard-and-fast rule. The Braves have had Boras clients on the roster in recent seasons, Touki Toussaint and Dallas Keuchel among them.
Anthopoulos and Braves CEO Terry McGuirk have both publicly spoken about the expectation that payroll will increase for a third straight season, though much of that uptick in spending will come from the roster that’s already in place. Many players who were signed to long-term contract extensions will see their salaries increase under the terms of those deals. That’s true of Austin Riley (a $5MM increase), Matt Olson ($1MM) and Sean Murphy ($5MM). Re-signed relievers Joe Jimenez ($8MM) and Pierce Johnson ($7MM) will also see increases over last year’s respective salaries of $2.765MM and $5MM. Meanwhile, Fried and A.J. Minter are in line for raises on last year’s respective salaries of $13.5MM and $4.2875MM.
The Braves finished the 2023 season with a payroll just shy of $205MM and more than $245MM of luxury-tax commitments, per Roster Resource. They’re already at $207MM and $236MM per those same projections, though non-tenders and potential trades will impact the bottom line.
The Opener: Rookie Of The Year, KBO, Free Agent Contest
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for on Monday…
1. Rookie of the Year winners announced:
Rookie of the Year winners in each league will be announced tonight at 6pm ET. The American League’s three finalists in 2023 include Orioles third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. Henderson, 22, smacked 28 home runs and posted a .255/.325/.489 batting line with 10 steals, 100 runs scored and 82 knocked in. Bibee seized a spot in the Cleveland rotation, making 25 starts and posting a 2.98 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate over the life of 142 innings. Casas shook off a slow start to finish out the year at .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs, 21 doubles, 66 runs and 65 RBIs.
In the National League, D-backs outfielder Corbin Carroll, Dodgers outfielder James Outman and Mets righty Kodai Senga are finalists. Carroll erupted with a .285/.362/.506 batting line, 25 home runs and 54 steals. He became the first rookie in MLB history to deliver a 20-50 season. Outman slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and standout glovework Senga’s 29 starts of 2.98 ERA ball and impressive 29.1% strikeout rate over 166 1/3 innings firmly cemented his role in the Mets’ rotation and more than justified their original five-year, $75MM investment in the former NPB star.
2. Korean Series ends:
The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization won their first Korean Series title in 29 years over the weekend, bringing an end to the 2023 KBO season. That’ll be significant for MLB fans, as with the KBO season now in the books, it won’t be long before we begin to see traction on the international free agent front. The general expectation is that star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee will be posted for MLB teams, likely some time after Thanksgiving. There could well be other Korean-born players interested in a move to MLB, and there will certainly be plenty of former big leaguers eyeing a return to North American ball.
Former first-round pick and Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde likely headlines that list after pitching to a flat 2.00 ERA with 29.5% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 70% ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the NC Dinos. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty profiled Fedde’s changes to his pitch repertoire and to his offseason program back in September. On the flipside of things, expect several fringe big leaguers — as Fedde was during his time in MLB — to make the jump to the KBO as they seek both notable seven-figure paydays and perhaps changes of scenery that could improve their stock and pave the road back to a big league roster.
3. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest picks due TONIGHT:
This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest is open through 11pm CT tonight. If you haven’t made your picks yet or want to make some changes to the slate you submitted, you can do so before that time! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter/edit your picks!
The Problem(s) With Trading Nick Castellanos
Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has seen his name pop up on the rumor mill this week, with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reporting that the team is “open” to moving him in a potential trade. There’s no indication any deal is close at this time.
Frankly, it’s only natural that the Phillies would be open to moving Castellanos. He’s entering the third season of a five-year, $100MM contract and has not played up to expectations to this point. Castellanos’ 2023 campaign (.272/.311/.476, 29 homers) was far better than his 2022 season (.263/.305/.389, 13 home runs), but it still wasn’t anywhere close to the standout production he turned in with the Reds during his final season in Cincinnati (.309/.362/.576, 34 homers).
Castellanos has never graded as even an average defender in the outfield, and his two seasons in Philadelphia haven’t changed that. He’s played just over 2300 innings in right field with the Phils and been dinged for -17 Defensive Runs Saved. Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -20.2, and Statcast has him at 19 outs below average. The huge offensive output that Castellanos produced in 2018, 2019 and 2021 more than offset his shaky glovework, but he was below average at the plate with the Phils in 2022 and only about nine percent better than average at the plate in 2023 (by measure of wRC+, which weights for home park and league run-scoring environment).
As with any free-agent signing, the Phillies were surely most interested in the first few years of the long-term deal to which they inked Castellanos. He’s played out his age-30 and age-31 seasons in red pinstripes and is now heading into his age-32 campaign. As he moves into his mid-30s, it stands to reason that Castellanos’ defense will only slip further. His average sprint speed (as measured by Statcast) dipped from 27.7 feet per second in 2022 to 27.2 in 2023. That checks into the 46th percentile of MLB players, and his arm strength (83.5 mph average on his throws) tied for 142nd out of 152 qualified outfielders.
There are also some red flags in his offensive profile; Castellanos has seen his exit velocity and barrel rates drop in Philadelphia, while this past season’s 27.6% strikeout rate was the worst of his career in a full 162-game season. He’s never walked at an especially high clip, but his patience is also on the decline. Castellanos drew a free pass in 7.3% of his plate appearances during his final two seasons with the Reds. That’s dropped to 5.3% in two seasons with the Phillies. Meanwhile, he’s chasing pitches off the plate more than ever before (43.1% with the Phils; 37.1% in his career prior). As a result, his contact rate has plummeted. This past season’s 66.6% contact rate is nearly five percentage points south of his career 71.5% mark.
There’s virtually no way the Phillies would be able to move the entirety of Castellanos’ contract and receive something of value in return. Even just getting someone to take on the entire contract in a straight salary dump might not be feasible.
That said, it’s a woeful crop of free agent bats, and Castellanos still popped 29 homers with an above-average batting line. A club with more playing time at designated hitter could have some interest in swapping out an underwater contract of its own that better fits the Phillies’ roster. The Phils could also pay down some of Castellanos’ contract, but they’d likely need to include a substantial amount of cash in order to make it a palatable deal for a trade partner — let alone to acquire meaningful players in return.
The free-agent market, for instance, features right-handed bats of generally similar skill set in the form of Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Hunter Renfroe. Hernandez is a year younger than Castellanos. Gurriel is two years younger. Taking on Castellanos at $60MM for his age-32 through age-34 seasons when there are younger and/or less expensive comparables on the free-agent market isn’t likely to hold widespread appeal throughout the league. Soler, in particular, is coming off a stronger season at the plate but might not even cost as much as the remaining sum on Castellanos’ contract.
Given the overall lack of quality bats on the market, it’s possible there’ll be some interest in acquiring Castellanos at a lower price than what’s left on his five-year deal. That the Phillies are “open” to trading him should come as no surprise. Actually finding a way to facilitate a deal would be another story.
MLBTR Live Chat
Click here to join Friday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition
The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.
“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.
Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.
The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.
There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.
The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.
Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.
Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.
The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso‘s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).
The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).