Twins Place Carlos Correa On Injured List
10:17am: Bench coach/interim manager Jayce Tingler (Rocco Baldelli is away from the club after his wife recently gave birth — to twins, no less) and head trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that they’re confident Correa will be ready for the beginning of the postseason (via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Lewis, meanwhile, will undergo an MRI on his hamstring when the team returns to Minnesota this weekend (via Dan Hayes of The Athletic).
9:47am: The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa on the 10-day injured list. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his left foot back in May and has been playing through the injury throughout the 2023 season. It flared up earlier this week and forced him from Monday’s game in Cincinnati. He’ll be sidelined through at least next Friday now. Outfielder Trevor Larnach is up from Triple-A St. Paul to take his spot on the active roster.
Correa, 28, hit .291/.366/.467 in his first season with the Twins last year but has seen his production dip to .230/.312/.399 in 2023 while playing through that ailment. He’s still played strong defense at shortstop, and that batting line is “only” about four percent shy of league average, by measure of wRC+, but Minnesota clearly had higher hopes for the former Platinum Glove winner and two-time All-Star when signing him to a six-year, $200MM contract over the winter. Notably, the plantar fasciitis is in Correa’s left foot, which is not the same foot/leg that sparked the considerable offseason drama, led to multiple failed physicals, and eventually paved the way for his return to the Twins.
The timing of the injury is clearly unfortunate for the Twins, who are closing in on formally securing the American League Central title and punching their postseason ticket. There’s still time for Correa to be back with the club several days prior to the beginning of the playoffs, and that’ll be the team’s hope — particularly since Correa had been trending up at the dish. Correa had perhaps his worst month of the season in August but is batting .296/.377/.463 (136 wRC+) since the calendar flipped to September.
Minnesota’s injury woes don’t end there, however. The Twins saw breakout rookie Royce Lewis exit yesterday’s game with discomfort in his left hamstring. The 24-year-old former No. 1 overall pick hobbled a bit after trying to beat a grounder, and he exited the game during his next plate appearance after tweaking something on a foul ball swing (link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park).
To this point, there’s no indication Lewis will require a trip to the injured list, though the Twins will surely exercise caution. The longtime top prospect returned from his second ACL tear in as many years this season and has been among the best hitters in the American League when healthy, batting .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in 239 plate appearances. Lewis has seized the everyday job at third base and shown a flair for the dramatic, recently connecting on his fourth grand slam in a span of just three weeks.
Not coincidentally, a Minnesota lineup that has struggled with inconsistency throughout the season has done its best work in September, with both Lewis and Correa performing at high levels. The Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game on the year but are tied with the Orioles for the MLB lead with 112 runs in 18 games this month (6.2 runs per game). With Correa sidelined and Lewis banged up, the Twins will likely turn to Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro at shortstop. Both players are options at third base as well, as is veteran Donovan Solano (who’s spent more time at first base this year).
Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Center Field
Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. As Anthony Franco noted earlier today, we’ll now move to the outfield. You can check out that piece for a preview of the left field/right field options available this winter, but we’ll focus here on center field — one of the relatively well-stocked (emphasis on “relatively”) areas of the position player market this winter.
Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.
Everyday Options
- Cody Bellinger (28)
Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 492 plate appearances, the former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player has posted a huge .316/.358/.545 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.5%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (71.7%) and pitches within the strike zone (87.1%).
Bellinger missed about six weeks of the season with a knee injury, which might be the only thing that stops him from reestablishing himself as a 30-homer slugger. Were it not for that absence, he’d have had a legitimate chance to deliver a 30-30 season with above-average defense at multiple spots (center field, first base).
The 2021-22 seasons were nightmarish for Bellinger, though they came in the wake of 2020 shoulder surgery. Bellinger also suffered a fractured fibula early in the ’22 campaign that could well have impacted him at the plate even after his return. His quality of contact isn’t as impressive as it once was — Bellinger averaged 91.1 mph off the bat with a 45.6% hard-hit rate in 2019, compared to 87.9 mph and 31.7% in 2023 — but the results are hard to ignore. In a market with so few bats of note, Bellinger stands not only as one of the best but also as the youngest option available.
The Cubs will make Bellinger a qualifying offer, and he’ll reject it with little thought. They’ll be one of many teams angling to sign him this winter, but Bellinger and agent Scott Boras will probably try to see to it that whoever inks him does so to the tune of $200MM or more.
- Harrison Bader (30)
Bader’s offense in 2023 certainly hasn’t been that of an everyday player. He’s batted just .237/.280/.356 on the year — the worst performance in any of his full seasons at the MLB level. Part of that is likely due to an uptick in fly balls and decrease in the percentage of those flies that have become home runs, but Bader has probably also had a bit of misfortune on balls in play; his .268 BABIP is 50 points lower than the career mark he carried into the year.
Even with some slight positive regression, it hasn’t been a good year at the plate. Bader has never walked much, and he’s doing so at just a 5% clip in 2023. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever before (career-low 17.5% strikeout rate), but he’s rarely doing so in an impactful manner (86 mph average exit velocity).
That said, Bader’s most valuable skills are still shining. He’s a lights-out center fielder — a legitimately elite defender who’s posted 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 735 innings this season. He’s also pummeling left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .317/.380/.610 clip this season. Bader’s above-average speed is on display more than ever before, too. His 19 steals are a career-best mark, and he’s only been caught three times.
Bader’s glove alone will earn him a multi-year deal, and he showed from 2018-21 that he has the potential to deliver at least average offense. In that four-year run with St. Louis, Bader hit .244/.325/.420 in 419 games. With a high floor and a ceiling in the four to five WAR range, Bader could surprise some onlookers with a strong multi-year deal this winter. That he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer only helps his case.
- Kevin Kiermaier (34)
Speaking of preternatural outfield defenders, you’d never know by watching Kiermaier in the outfield that his 2022 season ended with hip surgery. The longstanding defensive wizard is back to vintage form and enjoying one of his best all-around seasons. The longtime Rays outfielder has logged 866 innings in center field in his first year with Toronto and racked up 16 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average. He’s nowhere near his career-best 38 DRS (not a typo), but those 16 DRS rank eighth in the Majors at any position (one behind his outfield-mate Daulton Varsho in left field). His 11 OAA are tied for “only” 14th in the game.
Injuries tend to come with the territory for Kiermaier — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays his position — and the Jays have been good about affording him plenty of rest to keep him fresh. He also had a brief stay on the 10-day IL after a collision with the outfield wall required eight stitches in his elbow. He’s tallied just 361 plate appearances this year but turned in a nice .271/.331/.433 batting line with eight homers and 13 steals.
Kiermaier managed to land a one-year, $9MM deal in Toronto when he was coming off a notable surgery, and he’s now had a healthy and productive season. He’s not only reestablished himself among baseball’s premier defensive players, he’s turned in one of his best offensive campaigns, on a rate basis, and should be in position to command a multi-year deal. The Jays will face an interesting call on the qualifying offer. A one-year deal for Kiermaier worth around $20MM might well prove worthwhile, but the risk of injury is so substantial that they may opt not to roll those dice.
- Michael A. Taylor (33)
Though he’s often been used in a part-time role, Taylor is enjoying a career year offensively in Minnesota, where he’s swatted a personal-best 20 homers in just 354 trips to the plate. He’s also added 14 doubles and swiped 13 bases in 14 tries. Granted, a career-low 5.9% walk rate and career-high 33.3% strikeout rate call into question how likely it is that he can sustain this type of output, but Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash is roughly average, by measure of wRC+ (99).
Moreover, even if a team doesn’t expect Taylor to replicate that offense, he’s a strong enough defender that there’s a case to trot him out to center field every day anyhow. In 891 innings this year, he’s posted positive marks in DRS (5) and OAA (9). Dating back to 2017, he’s posted respective marks of 68 and 52 in those categories, ranking as one of the best defensive players in MLB — regardless of position.
Taylor’s glove alone makes him a viable source of two to three WAR, and if he shows he’s able to sustain his 2023 power surge, he could find himself in an everyday role. He’ll have a chance at landing a multi-year deal this winter. He’s QO-eligible, but solid as his season has been, he won’t receive one.
Platoon Options
- Adam Duvall (35)
He’s primarily been a corner outfielder in his career, but Duvall was signed to play center field in Boston and has done so for 448 innings during the 2023 season. That number would be higher had he not missed multiple months with a fractured wrist. Defensive metrics like DRS (-6) and OAA (-3) aren’t a fan of Duvall’s work in center, as one might expect for a 34-year-old who’s effectively playing out of position.
Duvall’s once-elite grades in the outfield corners have faded to average or slightly above in recent seasons, and the corners are probably where he’ll play the majority of the time with a new team. But he’s at least capable of handling part-time center field work, and his bat is his carrying tool anyhow. While Duvall has a penchant for low walk rates and bottom-of-the-barrel OBPs, there’s little doubting his power. He’s enjoying a nice rebound at the plate, hitting .254/.316/.543 with 19 home runs in only 310 plate appearances.
Duvall isn’t likely to sign as an everyday center fielder, but he can float through all three outfield slots and mix in time at designated hitter wherever he signs in 2024 — likely on a multi-year deal.
- Joey Gallo (30)
Gallo got out to a blistering start after signing a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins. They’ve stuck with him throughout the year, even though his bat went cold in May and has never really rebounded. Gallo is hitting just .177/.301/.440 on the season, but he’s delivered a dreary .159/.287/.365 slash in his past 275 plate appearances. The Twins would’ve had ample justification to move on at any point, but he could yet finish out the year on their roster. Gallo recently hit the 10-day IL with a foot injury and could return during the final couple weeks.
Since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees in 2021, Gallo carries a .166/.293/.396 batting line in 970 plate appearances. He’s smashed 53 home runs in that time — 21 this season — but also has fanned in 40.5% of his plate appearances. Someone with his power and walk rate will likely get a big league deal this winter, but it’s hard to imagine him being ticketed for an everyday role in center field, where he’s played just 46 innings this season (but has 463 innings of experience in his big league career).
- Randal Grichuk (32)
Grichuk was enjoying a fine season in Colorado, slashing .308/.365/.496 at the time of a trade to the Angels. His bat has wilted since that swap, as he’s turned in a tepid .203/.253/.392 output in 154 plate appearances. Grichuk has 14 homers in 417 plate appearances overall. As is frequently the case, he’s played all three outfield spots but graded out below-average in center. Grichuk is best suited for corner work, where he has positive grades for his career. That’s particularly true in right field, where his strong throwing arm is best deployed.
Teams in need of help against left-handed pitching will surely be drawn to Grichuk’s massive .320/.386/.573 slash when holding the platoon advantage this year. He’s a lifetime .266/.314/.502 hitter in such situations as well. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers twice, but that’s likely due to a $9.333MM salary more than it is sheer disinterest in him. Grichuk makes for a fine bench bat who can be used in a larger role as injuries elsewhere on the roster might necessitate.
Infield/Outfield Hybrids
- Enrique Hernandez (32)
Hernandez had a great first year in Boston after signing a two-year deal, tanked in 2022, was extended anyway, and has struggled for much of the 2023 season. Since a trade to the Dodgers, he’s rebounded to the tune of a .267/.329/.427 slash, but the offense has been suspect as a whole for the bulk of the past five years. That 2021 campaign stands out as Hernandez’s only above-average season at the plate since 2019. Over the past five seasons, he owns a collective .237/.306/.394 line.
Hernandez can go get it in center field, however — evidenced by 23 DRS and 17 OAA in just 2629 career innings at the position. He’s a viable defensive option around the outfield and at second base, although the Red Sox proved this year that he shouldn’t be entrusted with anything more than emergency duties at shortstop. Hernandez has generally hit lefties well and has enough defensive aptitude and versatility to command a big league deal.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)
Kiner-Falefa got his first career look in center field this year, and held his own, though the Yankees have used him at the position more sparingly as the season’s worn on (in part due to recent promotions of other players). “IKF” has previously drawn plus defensive marks at third base and left field, and he’ll now hit the free agent market as a light-hitting jack-of-all-trades who can be deployed in super utility fashion. He’s hitting .240/.307/.341 on the season, which is roughly in line with his career .261/.314/.346 batting line in 2397 plate appearances.
Fourth Outfielders and Depth Candidates
- Adam Engel (32)
Engel posted eye-popping defensive marks in center during his first two big league seasons (2017-18) and hit well in a small sample from 2020-21. He’s still an above-average defender, though not to the same extent as he was at 25-26 years of age. He’s also a career .224/.279/.349 hitter who’s battled multiple injuries in recent seasons. His glove alone will get him interest on a minor league deal though.
- Jake Marisnick (33)
It’s easy to overlook just how good Marisnick has been defensively in his career. Since his 2013 debut, he ranks eighth among all outfielders with 80 DRS and 12th with 53 OAA. That comes despite the fact that nearly everyone ahead of him on the list has hundreds, if not thousands more innings in the outfield. He’s a career .228/.281/.385 hitter in 2247 plate appearances, however, and the lack of offense typically relegates him to minor league deals and bench roles.
- Kevin Pillar (35)
Pillar was a human highlight reel early in his career with the Blue Jays, but his defensive prowess has understandably waned as he’s aged into his mid-30s. The Braves have only given him 24 innings in center this year, primarily deploying him in left field. Pillar has never gotten on base at a high clip, and this year’s .236/.260/.422 slash is a bit more of an extreme development of his lifetime .258/.295/.409 batting line. He signed a minor league deal with a $3MM base this past offseason and could find similar interest this winter.
- Raimel Tapia (30)
Tapia has good bat-to-ball skills and speed but is light on power, evidenced by a career .273/.317/.388 batting line. Much of his production at the big league level has come at Coors Field, and he was released twice in 2023 (Brewers, Red Sox) after posting a combined .230/.308/.338 line. Tapia has primarily played left field but has 469 innings of center field work in his career. He’ll probably sign another minor league deal this winter.
Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield.
AL Notes: Jung, Ober, Cora
Rangers third baseman Josh Jung has been out since early August after undergoing surgery to stabilize a fracture in his thumb, but the standout rookie could be back in the lineup as soon as next week, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Jung has been cleared for full baseball activity and is slated to take live batting practice at the team’s spring complex in Arizona. If that goes well, he could jump right back onto the roster for Monday’s series opener against the visiting Red Sox.
Jung, 25, was one of the front-runners for American League Rookie of the Year at the time of his surgery, having batted .274/.323/.489 with 22 home runs in 461 plate appearances. He’ll likely still appear on some Rookie of the Year ballots, but the roughly six-week absence has given current favorite Gunnar Henderson some runway to take a notable lead in terms of counting stats. Regardless of his standing in ROY voting, Jung’s return will be crucial for a Rangers club that has received awful production at third base since his injury. Texas third baseman have posted a disastrous .155/.238/.216 line in Jung’s absence.
More from the American League…
- The Twins announced this morning that they recalled Bailey Ober from Triple-A St. Paul, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the 6’9″ righty will be plugged back into Minnesota’s rotation. Ober pitched just 108 1/3 innings in 2021 and 72 2/3 innings last year due to injuries, so this year’s jump to 145 1/3 innings (MLB and AAA combined) has been significant. Ober indeed looked to be hitting a wall when he was optioned; he notched a spectacular 2.74 ERA in his first 15 starts but followed that up with 34 innings of 6.09 ERA ball. The Twins only had him make one start during this Triple-A stint (five innings on Sept. 9) and otherwise kept him fresh by throwing bullpen sessions and live batting practice. Ober took the demotion in stride, admitting to Nightengale that he was surprised but also adding that he “can definitely see [the Twins’] perspective on things.” Ober is under club control for another four years beyond the current season and has a 3.75 ERA in 53 career starts for Minnesota. Lefty Brent Headrick was optioned to Triple-A in place of Ober.
- With the Red Sox firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom yesterday, Boston’s front office is in transition. While it’s far too early in the process to have a definitive idea about who’ll replace Bloom at the top of baseball operations, some immediately speculated about manager Alex Cora. Cora has previously voiced a desire to lead a front office at some point in his career, but he shot down the notion of moving anytime soon. Speaking with reporters (including Sean McAdam of MassLive), Cora stated he didn’t intend to leave the dugout imminently. “I think it’s too soon. … I’m 48 next month and I feel very comfortable with what I’m doing.” He reiterated that being an executive at some point down the line is still of interest.
No Talks Between James Paxton, Red Sox
James Paxton returned to a big league mound for the first time since 2021, when he pitched just 1 1/3 innings with the Mariners, and remained healthy enough to make 19 starts for the Red Sox. Playing out the second season of a two-year, $10MM contract — Paxton exercised a $4MM player option at the end of the 2022 season — the 34-year-old lefty is slated to head back to the open market once the 2023 campaign concludes. Paxton tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he’d love to return to the Sox next year but hasn’t yet had any discussions on the matter with team officials.
Any such conversations figure to be delayed now, of course, with the Red Sox seeking a new baseball operations leader following yesterday’s dismissal of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. General manager Brian O’Halloran remains with the team and is pairing with assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman to oversee matters in the short term, but the Sox also announced yesterday that O’Halloran would be offered a new role within the baseball operations department.
Paxton’s season officially drew to a close earlier this month when Boston put him on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee. While there are more than 15 days remaining on the schedule, it was announced at the time of that IL placement that Nick Pivetta will be replacing Paxton in the rotation for the remainder of the year. There’s no indication that Paxton’s knee is a major issue, but he apparently needed more than a minimal absence and won’t make it back to the bump this year.
As such, Paxton’s season drew to a close with 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. That’s hardly a dominant showing, but much of the damage against him came in the three short starts preceding his placement on the injured list. Paxton carried a 3.34 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate through his first 16 starts (86 1/3 innings) before being tagged for 16 earned runs on 18 hits (four of them home runs) and 10 walks in a span of just 9 2/3 innings.
Paxton’s injury history is about as extensive as you’ll find among established, active pitchers. He’s had both back surgery and Tommy John surgery in the past three years alone, also missing varying lengths of time due to a forearm strain, a hamstring strain, knee inflammation and a flexor strain — all just since the 2020 season alone. That said, his upside is notable as well. A healthy Paxton misses bats at a high level, limits walks and home runs, and induces grounders at a least a league-average clip. From 2016-19, he tallied 568 innings of 3.60 ERA ball — highlighted by a 2.98 ERA in 24 starts during the 2017 season with Seattle.
Whoever takes over baseball operations in Boston will need to address the rotation in some capacity this winter. Returning to the fold in 2024 will be oft-injured Chris Sale and a slew of less-experienced arms like Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Of the bunch, Bello is the only one who’s had a full, productive season in the rotation. Pivetta remains under club control as well, though he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $5.35MM salary and could be non-tendered or moved in a change-of-scenery swap. Keeping Paxton would maintain some continuity and add upside to the group, but his injury history has always made him feel like a bit of a tough fit with a Boston rotation mix that features so many other question marks. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t be brought back in the end, but the Sox will need to add additional stability even if Paxton is re-signed.
Rockies Outright Cole Tucker
For the second time this season, Rockies infielder/outfielder Cole Tucker went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Tucker was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Because he’s already been outrighted once, he’ll have the option of rejecting this assignment in favor of free agency.
The 27-year-old Tucker joined the Rockies on a minor league deal over the winter and has twice been selected to the Majors, though he’s only tallied 10 plate appearances (during which he’s gone 4-for-8 with a walk and a hit by pitch). He’s spent the rest of the season in Albuquerque, where’s he’s appeared in 70 games and batted .280/.391/.407 in 321 plate appearances.
Selected by the Pirates with the No. 24 overall pick back in 2014, Tucker was considered one of Pittsburgh’s top prospects for the better part of five years but has yet to put things together in the Majors. He’s played in 159 big league games and tallied 479 plate appearances across parts of five seasons, but he has just a .216/.266/.318 batting line to show for it. His .250/.350/.382 batting line in four Triple-A campaigns is a clear improvement but still doesn’t stand out in and of itself. Tucker had top-of-the-scale sprint speed when he debuted in 2019 (90th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast). He’s slowed a bit, dropping from an average of 28.8 feet per second to 28.3 ft/sec, but that’s still good enough to rank in the 75th percentile of MLB players.
Tucker has primarily been a shortstop in his professional career, with more than 5500 innings at the position (including his minor league work). The Pirates and Rockies began bouncing him to other positions in recent years in order to improve his versatility. He’s since logged at least 375 innings at each of second base, center field and right field, with briefer stints at first base, third base and in left field.
The Opener: Jones, Cy Young Races, NL Wild Card Scene
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the baseball world this weekend…
1. Adam Jones honored in Baltimore:
The Orioles announced late last month that longtime Baltimore star Adam Jones will formally retire as a member of the O’s on Sept. 15. Jones will be honored in a pre-game at Camden Yards tonight, giving Baltimore fans that rooted him on as the heart and soul of many contending O’s clubs — and throughout his heroics for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — to bid farewell to a franchise favorite. Jones made five All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves and captured a Silver Slugger Award as an Oriole. From 2008-18, the center fielder played in 1613 games as an Oriole, batting .279/.319/.459 with 263 home runs and 90 steals. He helped fuel postseason runs in 2012, 2014 and 2016 and played a major role in the Orioles being one of the American League’s winningest teams during his peak years in Baltimore. Following an 11-year stretch with the O’s, Jones played a year with the D-backs (2019) and spent two seasons (2020-21) with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’ll always be remembered as an Oriole.
2. Cy Young candidates on the hill:
There are still multiple viable Cy Young candidates in both the American League and National League, and this weekend’s slate of games will see several of them take the hill as they make one of their final cases for that hardware. Friday will see American League innings (187) and ERA (2.79) leader Gerrit Cole take the mound against his former team in Pittsburgh. Minnesota’s Sonny Gray, who ranks second in the AL with a 2.96 ERA, will take Sunday against the visiting White Sox. His teammate Pablo Lopez — fourth in innings pitched, seventh in ERA, second in strikeout rate and riding a blistering second-half hot streak (1.89 ERA) — will look to continue his own late bid Saturday against the ChiSox. Astros lefty Framber Valdez, second in innings (181 2/3) and fifth in ERA (3.32) will host the Royals on Sunday.
In the National League, Cubs lefty Justin Steele (2.49 ERA) will be on the bump for tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks. He ranks just 15th in the NL in innings pitched but is second to Blake Snell in ERA among qualified hurlers. Baseball’s innings leader, Logan Webb (193), could cross the 200-frame threshold today versus the Rockies and will look to drop his fifth-ranked 3.40 earned run average in an ominous Coors Field setting.
3. The wild NL Wild Card chase:
The National League Wild Card race is as tightly contested as it’s been at any point this season, with each of the D-backs, Reds and Giants in a three-way tie for the third and final spot. That trio of teams is 2.5 games behind the Cubs for the second spot. As it happens, the D-backs and Cubs are set to kick off a three-game series this weekend that’ll be particularly pivotal for Arizona, where the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds have dwindled after a torrid start to the season. A D-backs sweep could flip the script and catapult them into the second Wild Card spot, whereas a series defeat or sweep at the hands of the Cubs could be a backbreaker for their playoff hopes.
Both Cincinnati and San Francisco will take on teams with losing records, as the Reds play host to the Mets and the Giants visit the Rockies at Coors Field. San Francisco’s weekend series will be particularly notable with regard to the playoff race, as they’ll play a doubleheader tomorrow to make up for yesterday’s rainout.
The Marlins, meanwhile, are just half a game behind the Reds, D-backs and Giants — but they’re in for the toughest challenge in baseball this weekend as they tangle with a juggernaut Braves club that is currently 46 games over the .500 mark with a staggering +239 run differential.
There’s enough time left on the schedule that this weekend won’t completely determine the postseason field, but we’ve reached the point in the calendar where every series — in some cases every individual games — can swing the playoff odds in significant fashion.
Red Sox Fire Chaim Bloom
The Red Sox announced Thursday that they have fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. The Sox also announced that general manager Brian O’Halloran has been offered a “new senior leadership position within the baseball operations department,” further signaling a major change in the organization’s structure. O’Halloran and assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman will oversee baseball operations for the time being, but the Sox added that a search for a new baseball operations leader will begin immediately.
“While parting ways is not taken lightly, today signals a new direction for our club,” principal owner John Henry said in a statement within the press release. “Our organization has significant expectations on the field and while Chaim’s efforts in revitalizing our baseball infrastructure have helped set the stage for the future, we will today begin a search for new leadership. Everyone who knows Chaim has a deep appreciation and respect for the kind of person he is. His time with us will always be marked by his professionalism, integrity, and an unwavering respect for our club and its legacy.”
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy said in the aftermath of Bloom’s dismissal that the Red Sox plan to conduct a “broader search” that “could take awhile” and that there are no preconceived plans to hire a more experienced candidate or another younger, first-time baseball ops leader (both links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Notably, Speier adds that Kennedy took the additional step of specifically calling out that he “can rule out [former Red Sox GM] Theo Epstein as a candidate.”
Originally hired to the post in October 2019, Bloom has overseen baseball operations for the Sox for the past four seasons. While Bloom’s Red Sox enjoyed a 92-win season in 2021 and took the Astros to six games in the ALCS that year, it’s been a largely disappointing four years for the Sox otherwise. Boston followed up that ALCS showing with a 78-84 record the following season and is currently at 73-72 with no viable path to a postseason berth.
Hired away from the division-rival Rays, where he’d paired with since-promoted president Erik Neander to oversee the baseball operations department, Bloom was long billed as a future general manager/president of baseball ops himself. His arrival in Boston followed the similarly timed firing of current Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski, who’d brought a World Series title to Boston in 2018 but endured a difficult 2019 season that ultimately cost him his job.
The hiring of Bloom, a young executive from a Rays organization widely viewed as one of the game’s model organizations, represented a departure from the experienced Dombrowski, who’s now led baseball ops for four different organizations and got his start in baseball ops way back in 1978. The Rays are admired throughout the industry for their nearly unrivaled player development expertise and the manner in which they’re able to maintain an elite farm system and competitive club while simultaneously operating under some of the sport’s most stringent payroll limitations from ownership.
The Red Sox have indeed built up their farm system under Bloom, but it’s come at the expense of results at the MLB level. Boston’s free-agent additions under Bloom have been a mixed bag, at best. The 2023 additions of Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Chris Martin and Adam Duvall have all been strong moves, as was last year’s low-cost pickup of Michael Wacha. However, the six-year deal for Trevor Story hasn’t panned out at all as hoped thus far. And while Masataka Yoshida has hit better than many anticipated when he signed a five-year, $90MM contract, he’s cooled after a strong start and turned in shaky defensive ratings that have muted his overall value. Meanwhile, free-agent deals for James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Martin Perez and Garrett Richards over the years haven’t helped the rotation as hoped.
Of course, the successful signings in and of themselves are a two-sided coin as well. The decision to buy low on Wacha proved savvy, but the Sox balked at bringing him back on a multi-year deal this winter and instead signed Kluber to a one-year pact that didn’t yield the intended results (7.04 ERA in 55 innings). The Sox also let Nathan Eovaldi depart rather than make him a multi-year offer, and while they received a compensatory pick after he signed in Texas, Eovaldi has been one of the American League’s best pitchers this season and would’ve found himself in the Cy Young conversation were it not for a recent six-week stay on the injured list.
Even that draft pick compensation the Sox received for the departures of Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts were reduced due to some questionable front office dealings. The 2022 Red Sox tried to thread the needle between shedding salary and remaining competitive at that year’s trade deadline. While Boston traded Christian Vazquez and shed Jake Diekman‘s salary, they also held onto Eovaldi, Wacha, J.D. Martinez and Rich Hill — all impending free agents — and acquired Tommy Pham. The result was a payroll that landed just a few million dollars north of the luxury tax threshold, thereby diminishing the comp picks for Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Teams that don’t pay the luxury tax receive comp picks after Competitive Balance Round B (typically around the 75th selection in the draft, give or take a few places). As a tax payor, the Sox instead received selections between the fourth and fifth round of the draft for that pair of veterans.
More recent dealings aside, Bloom will likely always be remembered — fairly or not — as the Red Sox’ baseball ops leader who oversaw the trade of Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. The trade of Betts was undoubtedly driven to some (likely significant) extent by ownership, and at the time of the swap Betts had steadfastly pledged to test the free-agent market. That didn’t prove to be the case, as Betts instead signed a 12-year, $365MM contract that stands as the largest amount of new money ever promised to a player at the time of his signing. (Mike Trout already had $66.5MM remaining on his contract when he signed a $360MM extension with the Angels.)
It’s arguable that Bloom deserves the benefit of the doubt, as any extension offers to Betts were always going to be ownership’s final call, and he had no impact or way of controlling whether Betts would ultimately put pen to paper with the Dodgers following a trade. Still, as the head of baseball operations, it’s incumbent to acquire the best return possible, and to this point the package the Sox received for a player who remains in perennial contention for MVP voting has simply hasn’t aligned with Betts’ value.
Alex Verdugo has stepped into the outfield in Betts’ place and developed into a solid regular. More than three years after the trade, Connor Wong has had a decent season as Boston’s primary catcher. Infield prospect Jeter Downs has since been designated for assignment and is no longer in the organization. Perhaps Wong can yet take his game to another level, but it’s been an underwhelming return for a player of Betts’ caliber — even if he had just one year of club control remaining at the time.
To Bloom’s credit, the Red Sox have that excellent 2021 season under his watch, and the farm system is currently in excellent shape. Baseball America graded it as the fifth-best system in baseball as of last month, although MLB.com was more bearish, pegging the Sox 16th. Prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela (who debuted this month) all rank within the top 100 prospects in the game. While 24-year-old Brayan Bello, like Rafaela, was signed by the prior regime, his development into a quality big league starter has been largely overseen by Bloom’s staff. And while Betts, Bogaerts and other great players have walked out the door during Bloom’s tenure, he was also the baseball operations lead when the Sox inked Rafael Devers to a historic $313.5MM extension (although just as ownership surely played a substantial role in the Betts trade, that’s surely true of the Devers deal as well).
It’s worth noting that the Red Sox have seemingly been reluctant to push payroll to the same heights as in years past; Bloom’s Sox topped out at $206MM in Opening Day payroll (2022) and were closer to $180MM in 2021 and 2023. Conversely, the Sox were at $233MM and $236MM during the final two years of Dombrowski’s tenure. Relative to the rest of the league, Boston has been in the top half of spenders since Bloom’s hiring but never placing inside the top five — where they resided each season from 2004 to 2019.
Bloom’s experience in making value-oriented moves on the margins of the roster in Tampa Bay perhaps appealed to Sox ownership as they sought to curtail some of their previously aggressive spending levels, but it always felt odd to see a team with Boston’s financial might making head-scratching moves like extending Rob Refsnyder in May or swapping out Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to acquire some mid-range prospects from the Brewers.
As with any president or general manager, Bloom’s tenure will ultimately consist of notable wins and painful whiffs. In this instance, Sox ownership felt that the former had outweighed the latter by too great a margin, and they’ll now embark on a search for their fourth baseball operations leader since Theo Epstein’s departure prior to the 2012 season. Only the Angels have gone through that same number of GM changes in that same window.
Pirates, Andrew McCutchen Plan To Discuss New Contract In Offseason
Andrew McCutchen‘s Pittsburgh homecoming was the feel-good story of the year for Pirates fans, and while it ended on a sour note — McCutchen suffered a partial Achilles tear last week, ending his season — there’s mutual interest in a 2024 reunion. General manager Ben Cherington told Pirates beat writers yesterday that the team and McCutchen will meet in the offseason to discuss further extending the relationship (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
“We believe that the injury he’s recovering from right now should not get in the way of him being a good baseball player next year and being someone who can help us, and we’ve agreed that we’ll pick that conversation up when the season is over,” Cherington said before adding that he’s hopeful the Pirates can enjoy “a lot more good moments out there with him.”
Now 36 years old, McCutchen returned to his original organization on a one-year, $5MM deal over the winter. The former NL MVP was the 11th overall draft pick by the Pirates back in 2005 and starred with Pittsburgh from 2009-17, leading the charge as the Bucs reached the postseason each year from 2013-15.
McCutchen was given a hero’s welcome upon returning to Pittsburgh and said both at the time of his signing and a couple months into the season that he had no desire to play anywhere other than Pittsburgh. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette back on May 26. The Bucs honored those wishes, holding McCutchen at the trade deadline even amid interest from other clubs and even as they shipped out players such as Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Ji Man Choi and Rodolfo Castro.
It’s been a productive return to the scene of his big league debut for McCutchen. In 473 trips to the plate, the five-time All-Star batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen home runs, 19 doubles and 11 stolen bases. He also tallied the 2000th hit of his excellent career this season, and had it not been for his injury, he’d likely have swatted his 300th homer. As it stands, he’s sitting on 299 big flies in his career. If he indeed returns next year for a 16th Major League season, he’ll quite likely become just the 159th member of that 300-homer club.
As far as the roster fit goes, there probably won’t be much outfield time to go around — although that was also the case in 2023, when he logged just 64 innings in the field. Bryan Reynolds is entrenched in left field, and Jack Suwinski figures to have center field locked down after hitting (as of this writing) 25 home runs. McCutchen hasn’t been a viable option in center field for years anyhow.
Right field is a bit more up in the air, but top catching prospect Henry Davis has logged considerable time there, and the Bucs also have some depth names like Canaan Smith-Njigba and Joshua Palacios on the 40-man roster at present. McCutchen could reprise his role as the team’s primary designated hitter, and he’d certainly be an option in the outfield on occasion, perhaps lining up in right field against left-handed opponents.
From a payroll vantage point, McCutchen shouldn’t be a problem even for the light-spending Bucs. A salary comparable to this year’s $5MM rate wouldn’t be a surprise, and the Pirates only have $17MM on the books in 2024 anyhow: Reynolds’ $10MM salary and the $7MM owed to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Arbitration raises will boost that number a bit, but the Bucs only have four eligible players: Mitch Keller, Miguel Andujar, JT Brubaker and David Bednar. Andujar is a non-tender candidate. Brubaker will likely earn the same $2.275MM he did in 2023 after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is eligible for only the first time. Keller stands to receive a healthy raise on this year’s $2.4375MM salary.
Even after accounting for those raises, the Pirates will probably only have around $30MM in total on the books — about $43MM less than the mark at which they opened the current season. That’d certainly leave ample room for spending, and if the improvements over the team’s 2022 record embolden owner Bob Nutting to increase payroll a bit, there could be a bit more in terms of available resources. A McCutchen reunion wouldn’t significantly cut into that payroll space, and it’s at least feasible that the Bucs could even be in on some mid-tier free agents (or perhaps acquire some controllable players who are entering or have entered their arbitration years).
For now, the focus will be on his recovery. It’s understandable if both team and player want to wait until there’s a better sense for how McCutchen will heal and recover before beginning to talk contract. But McCutchen’s message since day one back in Pittsburgh has been that he hopes to play out his career in black and gold, and Cherington’s latest comments only serve to reinforce the likelihood of that happening.
Jasson Dominguez To Undergo UCL Surgery
1:00pm: The Yankees provided reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, with an update regarding the surgery. As Martino reported, it’s true that internal bracing may be possible during the surgery, but the club is still estimating a timeline of nine to ten months regardless.
12:25pm: A full Tommy John surgery could still be avoided, reports Andy Martino of SNY. He says that the possibility of bracing will be determined during the surgery. That could perhaps lessen the recovery timeline, though further updates will surely follow the procedure.
10:55am: Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez will undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday of next week, manager Aaron Boone announced to reporters Thursday (link via Chris Kirschner of The Athletic). It was already known that Dominguez would require surgery of some type to address the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but the Yankees and Dominguez were still gathering information before determining whether he’d need a full UCL reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery) or a less-invasive procedure, such as a primary repair or internal brace. Dominguez’s estimated MLB return is nine to ten months, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, so he’ll likely miss close to half the 2024 season.
While Dominguez, the team and its fans are all surely glad to have some clarity on a formal diagnosis and treatment plan, it’s nonetheless an obvious gut-punch to all parties after Dominguez’s impressive debut earlier this month. The 20-year-old switch-hitter has been lauded as one of the game’s top prospects since signing with the Yankees on for a $5.1MM bonus as an international amateur back on July 2, 2019. He did little to sway that thinking upon his call to the big leagues, ripping an opposite-field homer off Justin Verlander in his first at-bat before going on to hit .258/.303/.677 with four homers and a double in his first 33 MLB plate appearances.
Dominguez’s debut effort lasted just eight games, but the month of September had been shaping up to be an audition for a full-time role in next year’s outfield. The early stages of that audition were a clear success, and there appeared to be a real chance that Dominguez would open the 2024 season as New York’s primary center fielder (or perhaps left fielder, depending on the progress of fellow prospect Everson Pereira and on any offseason dealings). The Yankees waived Harrison Bader in late August — the Reds subsequently claimed him — and will see utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa join Bader in free agency this winter.
An absence of nine to ten months rather clearly disrupts any plans for Dominguez to take over a full-time spot in the outfield. The Yankees will still want to take a look at Dominguez in a full-time role when he returns, but his injury increases the chances that the Yanks will at least pursue a veteran stopgap in center field to help bridge that gap. Bader seems quite likely to command a multi-year deal this offseason even on the heels of a tough year at the plate, given his defensive excellence. There aren’t many true short-term options on the free-agent market, though Aaron Judge‘s ability to play center field could allow the Yankees to deploy him there for a few months and look into short-term upgrades in the outfield corners.
Whatever route the Yankees pursue, Dominguez will open the 2024 campaign on the Major League 60-day injured list and accrue both service time and big league pay while he rehabs. The injury will make it highly unlikely that he’ll have the playing time required to push himself into American League Rookie of the Year voting next year, thus reducing the probability of the Yankees benefiting in the third year of MLB”s “prospect promotion incentive” system that was implemented in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement.
Otherwise, Dominguez’s injury won’t do much to change impact his service time or long-term club control. He was likely to open the season on the roster anyhow, making a full year of service in 2024 the likeliest outcome. That’s still the case, and assuming he collects that full year in ’24, he’ll be under team control via the arbitration system through the 2029 season. The timing of Dominguez’s call to the Majors this year doesn’t put him anywhere near Super Two trajectory, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration following the 2026 season, barring any future optional assignments that could change that timeline.
Reds Place Tejay Antone On Injured List, Select Carson Spiers
The Reds announced Thursday morning that they’ve placed right-hander Tejay Antone on the 15-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow. Cincinnati also reinstated righty Ben Lively from the Covid-related injured list and selected the contract of right-hander Carson Spiers from Double-A Chattanooga. Right-hander Connor Phillips who’d been up as a Covid-related replacement player, has been returned to Triple-A Louisville.
Antone, 29, only just returned from a two-year absence stemming from Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’s pitched 5 2/3 effective innings, but the right-hander left last night’s game with a trainer after experiencing discomfort in that surgically repaired elbow. While Antone downplayed the issue to an extent after the game, it seems the Reds have deemed a pause on his throwing is needed. There’s still technically enough time remaining on the schedule for Antone to return to the mound in the final three games of the season, but given the timing of the IL placement and minimal days left on the schedule, it’s possible his season will be over.
A healthy Antone is one of the most underrated relievers in the game. He’s only appeared in parts of three big league seasons, thanks largely to those health troubles, but in 74 2/3 innings dating back to 2020, the righty boasts a 2.41 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 49.4% ground-ball rate. Antone has been a bit wild, walking 10.7% of his opponents in his young career, but the results are impressive all the same. The obvious hope for any player following an IL placement is that a major injury can be avoided, but it’d be particularly disheartening to learn of anything severe for Antone after he only just completed a two-year grind back to a Major League mound.
As for the 25-year-old Spiers, he’s already made his big league debut, allowing seven runs in seven innings between two appearances earlier this month. However, he was only on the roster as a Covid-related substitute player and was returned to Triple-A on Sunday. That process didn’t require him to be optioned or passed through waivers. Now, he’s been formally selected to the Major League roster, meaning he’ll be subject to standard option rules moving forward.
Aside from his brief MLB look earlier this month, Spiers has spent the entire season in Double-A. An undrafted signee out of Clemson following the shortened 2020 draft, he’s pitched 83 innings of 3.69 ERA ball with the Reds’ Chattanooga affiliate, whiffing 29.2% of his opponents against an 11.3% walk rate.
Lively, 31, hasn’t pitched in a game since Aug. 26. The right-hander enjoyed a solid three-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2019-21 before returning to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with the Reds for the 2022 season. He re-upped with Cincinnati over the most recent offseason and this year reached the Majors for the first time since throwing one lone inning with the 2019 Royals. He’s pitched in 15 games (12 starts) for the Reds and eaten up 76 2/3 innings, albeit with a lackluster 5.17 ERA. To his credit, that number is skewed by one objectively calamitous start, wherein the Reds left Lively out there to take a 13-run beating in four innings against the Cubs. Lively has a 3.83 ERA in his other 14 appearances.