Gavin Lux Will Miss 2023 Season Due To Torn ACL
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced this morning that infielder Gavin Lux suffered a torn ACL in his right knee during yesterday’s Cactus League game and will miss the 2023 season (Twitter thread via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Lux also sustained damage to his right knee’s LCL. He’ll undergo surgery on March 7.
Lux, 25, was slated to step into the spotlight as the Dodgers’ primary shortstop following the free-agent departures of Corey Seager following the 2021 season and Trea Turner this past offseason. However, while advancing from second to third base on a grounder in yesterday’s game, Lux altered his course a bit to avoid a throw across the diamond. In doing so, the infielder’s knee buckled, and he immediately tumbled to the ground in pain. Lux was unable to put any weight on his right leg and was carted off the field.
With Lux now out for the season, the Dodgers’ January reacquisition of infielder Miguel Rojas now becomes a far more pivotal pickup. Rojas, who’s spent the past half decade as the Marlins’ primary shortstop (after being traded from the Dodgers to Miami), is a light hitter but grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He’d been ticketed for a utility role but will now step up as the everyday shortstop in Lux’s absence. Roberts added that Swiss army knife Chris Taylor could get some reps in the infield as well, and Mookie Betts could see some extra work at second base for the Dodgers, too (Twitter link via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times).
The 2022 season saw Lux take the field for a career-high 129 games and slash 276/.346/.399 in a career-high 471 plate appearances. That was solid production — 13% better than average, per wRC+ — but it also bears mentioning that a woeful cold streak in September and October weighed down Lux’s end-of-season numbers. Lux was slowed by neck and and upper-back soreness late in the year, receiving a cortisone injection and missing about two weeks of action while mending that injury. Based on the way his season finished out, it doesn’t seem the injection and downtime had their intended effect.
Through Sept. 1, Lux was slashing a far more robust .293/.368/.428 in 418 plate appearances. During the season’s first five months, he walked at an 11% clip and fanned at a lower-than-average 18.9% rate. Upon returning on Sept. 17, however, Lux tallied 53 more plate appearances but hit just .154/.170/.192 with an alarming 30.2% strikeout rate and 1.9% walk rate.
Between that five-month run to open the 2022 season, a strong K-BB profile, sharp defensive grades at second base and Lux’s pedigree as a former first-round pick and universally lauded top prospect, a 2023 breakout seemed like a real possibility. That’ll no longer be the case, and it’s a gut-punch for both the Dodgers and for Lux. He’ll spend the year on the injured list, gaining Major League service time along the way and inching closer to free agency at the conclusion of the 2026 season.
Rojas figures to be a downgrade with the bat on the heels of a .236/.283/.323 showing in 2022. While he did post a much more solid .277/.334/.398 line from 2019-21 (1208 plate appearances), Rojas just turned 34 and has seen his quality of contact degrade considerably over the past couple seasons. However, while he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Lux, Rojas should provide the Dodgers with lights-out glovework at the position. He piled up a gaudy 15 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average with the Marlins at shortstop in 2022, and dating back to 2017 he’s been credited with 27 DRS and 19 OAA in more than 4800 innings.
Even if Rojas gives the Dodgers a more-than-passable replacement option at shortstop, Lux’s injury still thins out the organization’s infield depth in a meaningful way — particularly with top prospect and projected regular second baseman Miguel Vargas also dealing with a hairline fracture in his pinkie finger. While there’s no indication Vargas is expected to miss substantial time with the injury — he’s playing in Cactus League games but not swinging during his plate appearances at the moment — subtracting Lux from the roster likely pushes a depth option such as Yonny Hernandez up from Triple-A. The outfield depth is also impacted, as any time Taylor spends in the infield cuts into his availability elsewhere on the diamond.
It’s feasible that the Dodgers could yet look to add some infield depth, though options on the free-agent market at this point are extremely limited. Veterans like Jose Iglesias, Jonathan Villar, Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned, but the latter three in particular have had their share of recent struggles. The Dodgers are no strangers to making small-scale trades and adding depth via waivers, of course, and this injury gives them the freedom to accommodate a new acquisition on the 40-man roster by shifting Lux to the 60-day injured list.
NL Central Notes: Taylor, Cubs, Reynolds, Chandler
Tyrone Taylor‘s recovery from an elbow sprain isn’t going as well as hoped, Brewers manager Craig Counsell tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The team first revealed Taylor’s injury last week and said Taylor would miss at least the first two weeks of spring games, but a more pessimistic update with games already underway clouds the 28-year-old’s readiness for Opening Day.
“We’re not any closer,” Counsell said. “As we move on here, we’re starting to be concerned for sure because we want to get him started and he’s not doing any baseball activities, and we don’t have any on the horizon.”
Taylor, 29, hit .233/.286/.442 through a career-high 405 plate appearances last season, showing plenty of pop and a good glove across all three outfield spots, which helped to offset an OBP that ranked 181st among the 205 players who tallied at least 400 plate appearances. Taylor’s right-handed bat, on paper anyway, pairs nicely with lefty-swinging outfielders like Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. If the club wants to keep a right-handed bat in the outfield mix, offseason signee Brian Anderson could move from third base into right field, freeing some early time for Luis Urias at third base. Prospect Brice Turang could take second base if he makes the team, but Abraham Toro and Owen Miller could also see some time at the keystone.
There’s plenty of versatility for the Brewers to mix-and-match on the roster, which has been a hallmark of their clubs in recent seasons. Milwaukee still hasn’t provided a firm update as to when Taylor might realistically be able to get back into a game, but with Opening Day just over a month away and rehab not progressing well, an IL stint to begin the season is possible.
A few more notes from the division…
- The Cubs haven’t provided a clear timetable for how long Seiya Suzuki‘s strained oblique might keep him out of action — though the injury is notable enough that Suzuki has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic. However, even in the event of some missed time, free agent Jurickson Profar isn’t a likely option for the Cubs, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The team is about $8MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier and doesn’t seem particularly inclined to cross it at this time, per Mooney, who adds that any remaining resources are likelier to be allocated to the bullpen or be earmarked for potential midseason upgrades on the trade market. If the Cubs are still pondering another addition in the bullpen, some of the top names remaining include Zack Britton, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Corey Knebel.
- Imaging on Matt Reynolds revealed a Grade 1 strain in both of the infielder’s quadriceps muscles, Reds skipper David Bell told reporters (Twitter link). Despite the pair of ailments, Reynolds is only expected to be sidelined for a few days, so he should still be in the running for a bench spot on the Cincinnati roster to begin the season. The 32-year-old appeared in a career-high 93 games for the Reds in 2022 and slashed .246/.320/.332 in 272 plate appearances while appearing at every position on the diamond other than catcher.
- Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler has been told that he will strictly be a pitcher this year, per Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline. A third round draft pick in 2021, he’s been playing both sides of the ball so far in his professional career. He tossed 41 1/3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.61 ERA, striking out 34.7% of batters faced while walking 16.2%. At the plate, however, he hit just .196/.331/.382, walking in 16.1% of his trips to the plate but getting punched out 33.1% of the time. It seems a return to hitting down the line hasn’t been ruled out, but he’ll focus on his mound work for the time being.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
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Seiya Suzuki Diagnosed With “Moderate” Oblique Strain
The Cubs announced Tuesday that an MRI revealed a “moderate” left oblique strain for right fielder Seiya Suzuki. The 28-year-old has already withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic, but it’s not yet clear how much time he’ll be expected to miss.
Chicago has taken a strangely vague approach to Suzuki’s injury status, declining to delve into specifics on the strain (i.e. Grade 1, Grade 2). The team originally announced Sunday that Suzuki was being hampered by tightness in his left oblique and was slated for some imaging, with the expectation that an update would be provided yesterday. Instead, manager David Ross demurred Monday and told reporters that the Cubs remained in “wait-and-see” mode. Today’s update, outside of acknowledging a strain, offers no further clarity on the severity of the injury or a potential timeline for Suzuki to return to the field. At this juncture, it’s not clear whether the team expects him to open the season on the injured list.
Suzuki, 28, is headed into the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract signed last winter. He enjoyed a strong, albeit injury-shortened debut campaign in MLB last year, appearing in 111 games and batting .262/.336/.433 with 14 home runs, 22 doubles, a pair of triples, nine steals, a 9.4% walk rate and a 24.7% strikeout rate. Suzuki missed more than a month with a finger injury and was also away from the club while on the paternity list. His production was particularly stout in the season’s first and final months, but the end-of-year output clocked in about 16% better than that of a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+.
The Cubs’ options in right field, should Suzuki miss time, consist of utilitymen Christopher Morel and Zach McKinstry; corner infielders Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom (who has 199 big league innings of outfield work), minor leaguers Nelson Velazquez, Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario (all on the 40-man roster); and non-roster invitees Mike Tauchman and Ben DeLuzio (among others). Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger are expected to hold down left field and center field, respectively.
As Patrick Mooney of The Athletic points out, Ross had specifically mentioned Wisdom as an option in right field if Suzuki is sidelined. Wisdom himself was scratched from yesterday’s Cactus League game due to tightness in his groin, but he’s back in the lineup for today’s game.
Tyler Glasnow Out Six To Eight Weeks With Oblique Strain
10:40am: The Rays announced that Glasnow has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of his left oblique. The team estimates a timeline of six to eight weeks before he’s ready to return to a game setting.
9:12am: Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is expected to miss the beginning of the regular season due to an oblique injury, manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). “I would book that right now,” Cash said when asked about the likelihood of Glasnow missing time to begin the year. Glasnow underwent an MRI yesterday, though the team has not yet provided a formal diagnosis or publicly disclosed a timeline for his return.
If there’s a silver lining for the Rays, it’s that the injury is unrelated to Glasnow’s surgically repaired right elbow. The 29-year-old Glasnow underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and was limited to just 6 2/3 regular season frames last year — plus another five dominant innings in the ALDS. Given that minimal workload, it’s likely that the Rays would’ve kept a watchful eye on Glasnow’s innings count in 2023 anyhow. In some respects, the oblique injury provides a more organic means of keeping that workload on the more conservative side as he builds toward what the team surely hopes will be a full slate of starts in the 2024 season.
Even with Glasnow on the shelf, the rotation will remain a strong point for the Rays, who enjoyed a breakout 2022 showing from Shane McClanahan. The 25-year-old lefty made his first All-Star team and was squarely in the American League Cy Young mix for most of the season before a shoulder injury late in the year limited his innings and perhaps diminished his results over his final few outings. Now healthy, McClanahan is a safe bet to make the Rays’ Opening Day start.
Following him in the rotation will be recently extended lefty Jeffrey Springs, right-hander Drew Rasmussen and offseason acquisition Zach Eflin, who inked the largest free-agent contract the Rays have ever given out (a still-modest three years and $40MM). The fifth spot in the rotation will be somewhat up for grabs. Touted young righty Shane Baz won’t factor into that mix, as he’s expected to miss all of the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Rays still have Luis Patino, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and top prospect Taj Bradley as names to consider.
Of course, since we’re talking about the Rays, there’s no guarantee they’ll even set a fifth starter. Many clubs can skip the fifth spot in the rotation early in the season due to the number of off-days baked into the calendar, and even failing that, the Rays are the team that pioneered the now-common usage of openers and bullpen games. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Tampa Bay go back to that well. Lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, notably, “started” seven games for the Rays in 2022 but never pitched beyond two innings or faced more than ten batters in any of those appearances. He’d likely be the favorite for such a role to begin the 2023 campaign as well, should the Rays prefer to go that route.
Turning back to Glasnow, he’s earning a $5.35MM salary in the 2023 season, which would’ve been his final year of club control before free agency were it not for an extension he inked last summer. It was an odd contract that lacked precedent, as the two parties agreed to tack just one year at a premium $25MM rate, pushing back Glasnow’s arrival on the open market by one year.
Joe Musgrove Suffers Fractured Toe
10:14am: Padres manager Bob Melvin said Musgrove won’t be cleared to resume throwing for a “minimum” of two weeks (Twitter link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), though it’s possible he’s sidelined longer than that. Even if it’s a best-case scenario and Musgrove is throwing again in two weeks’ time, he’d have just 16 days to build up before Opening Day. The team hasn’t directly said as much, but Melvin’s timeline rather clearly puts Opening Day in jeopardy for Musgrove.
9:06am: Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove sustained a broken big toe in his left foot during a weight room accident yesterday, the team announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Dennis Lin of The Athletic). The Padres have not yet revealed a timeline for Musgrove’s return.
The severity of the fracture and the recommended treatment aren’t yet clear, though it seems fair to presume that Musgrove will be sidelined for a meaningful period of time. Fractures of this nature can potentially require a walking boot, and even absent that, a broken big toe in a pitcher’s landing foot is problematic for obvious reasons.
It’s a dismal bit of injury luck for both pitcher and team, as the 30-year-old Musgrove is headed into the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension signed last July. He’s fresh off an All-Star season that saw him pitch to a sterling 2.93 ERA in 181 innings, fanning a strong 24.9% of hitters against a similarly impressive 5.7% walk rate along the way. Musgrove also ranked among the best in the league in terms of suppressing hard contact, landing in the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers with an 86.4 mph average exit velocity and in the 88th percentile with just a 32.4% hard-hit rate.
The typically durable Musgrove has made at least 30 starts and tallied at least 170 innings pitched in each of the past three 162-game seasons. Over the past four seasons, he’s only been placed on the injured twice — missing about three weeks in 2020 due to triceps inflammation in addition to about a week on the Covid-related injured list this past season.
Assuming Musgrove is indeed unavailable to begin the 2023 season, newly extended righty Yu Darvish would likely be in line for the Opening Day nod for San Diego. Darvish will be followed by lefty Blake Snell, recently signed right-hander Michael Wacha and relievers-turned-starters Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. The recent signing of Wacha now looks all the more critical for the Friars, who’d otherwise have been left with just two established big league starters in the wake of this Musgrove injury.
San Diego has been angling for a six-man rotation to begin he season, in part to help manage the workload of Martinez and Lugo, who pitched just 106 1/3 innings and 65 innings in 2022, respectively. If the plan is still to trot out a six-man unit, that could open the door for a younger arm like Adrian Morejon, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr or Pedro Avila to get some starts early in the season. Alternatively, the Padres have notable veterans like Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks in camp as non-roster invitees. Cole Hamels also inked a minor league pact as part of a comeback bid, but he’ll still be building up in extended spring training when the regular season opens.
Read The Transcript Of Today’s Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
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Injury Notes: Whitlock, Ahmed, Vargas, Reynolds
Right-hander Garrett Whitlock is still on the mend from September hip surgery, though Red Sox skipper Alex Cora indicated this morning there’s a possibility he won’t be ready for Opening Day (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). Whitlock has been throwing off a mound but is not yet performing pitchers’ fielding practice, and Cora stated that if the right-hander isn’t ready for the start of the season, “he’s not going to lose too much time.”
One of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, the 26-year-old Whitlock has pitched 151 2/3 innings for Boston over the past two seasons, logging a sharp 2.73 ERA with a strong 26.8% strikeout rate against a brilliant 5.3% walk rate. The Red Sox have used him far more out of the bullpen than the rotation, but he’s slated to get a look as a starter in 2023, joining the likes of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta in the mix for rotation work. Fellow righty Tanner Houck and top prospect Brayan Bello are both options to step into the rotation, should Whitlock need to miss any time early in the season.
A few more health situations to monitor as spring camps continue to ramp up…
- D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed received a cortisone injection in his right forearm and will be shut down for at least five days, writes Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. The 32-year-old Ahmed (33 next month) was dealing with inflammation and tightness in his forearm, and the hope is that the injection and some downtime will clear it up and avoid a lengthy absence. Ahmed was limited to 129 games in 2021 and just 17 games in 2022 thanks to a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery last year. If healthy, he’ll be back in line for regular reps at shortstop, where he’s ranked among the game’s best defenders at any position. A healthy 2023 campaign is of particular importance for Ahmed, as he’s entering the final season of a four-year, $32MM contract and is slated to become a free agent for the first time next offseason.
- Infielder Miguel Vargas, who suffered a hairline fracture of his pinkie finger earlier this spring, has resumed swinging a bat, writes Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The 23-year-old Vargas, widely considered to be one of the sport’s 100 best prospects, scuffled through a 50-plate appearance MLB debut in 2022 (.170/.200/.255) but ripped through Triple-A pitching at a torrid .304/.404/.511 pace (129 wRC+). He’s the favorite for everyday work at second base to begin the season, though obviously the health of his finger will determine his readiness for the season. Vargas is in the Dodgers’ lineup for the second time in three spring games today, but he’s batting ninth and isn’t expected to swing during any plate appearances today (he walked and struck out on Saturday). He’ll still get some work at second base and use today’s game to work on tracking pitches in the batter’s box. It’s not clear yet when he’ll begin swinging the bat in a game setting.
- Reds infielder Matt Reynolds is headed for an MRI after exiting Saturday’s Cactus League game with a quadriceps injury, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 31-year-old Reynolds, in camp as a non-roster invitee, logged a career-high 272 plate appearances with Cincinnati in 2022, slashing .246/.320/.332 while appearing at every position other than catcher. Reynolds is competing with fellow non-roster invitees like Chad Pinder, Alejo Lopez and Jason Vosler for a spot on manager David Bell‘s bench to begin the 2023 season.
Braves Sign Matt Swarmer To Minor League Deal
The Braves signed righty Matt Swarmer to a minor league contract over the weekend. The team didn’t formally make an announcement, but the transaction log at MiLB.com indicates he signed a couple days back. Swarmer actually already made his spring debut with the Braves in yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest, tossing one-third of an inning in relief of righty Bryce Elder.
Swarmer, 29, made his big league debut with the Cubs in 2022 when he tossed 34 innings of 5.03 ERA ball over the life of 11 appearances (five starts, six relief outings). He fanned a solid 23.5% of his opponents but issued far too many walks (13.1%) during that brief MLB sample. Swarmer’s big league tenure started with a flourish, as he tossed consecutive quality starts and held the Brewers and Cardinals to a combined two earned runs on seven hits and three walks with 11 punchouts in 12 innings. Over his next 22 frames, however, he was tagged for a 6.95 ERA. The Cubs outrighted him off the roster back in July, and he became a minor league free agent after the season.
A 19th-round pick by the Cubs back in 2016, Swarmer pitched across three levels — High-A, Double-A and Triple-A — in his first full professional season back in 2017, although the results were generally shaky, as one might expect for a pitcher rising so quickly through the system. He had a nice season between High-A and Double-A in 2018 before being hit hard in 2019 and 2021 at the Triple-A level. (There were no minor league games in 2020, of course.)
The 2022 season was the first in which Swarmer found some success in Triple-A. He tossed 81 1/3 frames with the Cubs’ Iowa affiliate, notching a 3.87 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. Swarmer doesn’t throw hard (90.6 mph average fastball in last year’s debut season) but has typically posted average or better strikeout and walk rates throughout his minor league career.
Given the manner in which the Braves have thinned out their system on the trade market over the past calendar year — Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson and Freddy Tarnok are among the upper-minors arms they’ve moved — it’s sensible to see them add some depth in the form of a minor league veteran who had Triple-A success and made his big league debut in 2022.
Blue Jays Hire James Click As Vice President Of Baseball Strategy
The Blue Jays announced Monday morning that former Astros general manager James Click has been hired as their new vice president of baseball strategy.
In Click’s new role, he’ll work “closely with general manager Ross Atkins and department heads on strategic planning, decision making, and evaluation.” Click will also “work across both professional and amateur levels to identify best practices, develop plans, and implement strategies.”
The Astros rather surprisingly moved on from Click just weeks after winning the 2022 World Series. Reports of mounting friction between Click and team owner Jim Crane began to surface late in the 2022 regular season, and upon conclusion of the postseason, Crane put forth a one-year extension offer that was generally viewed as a token offer that never stood a chance of being accepted. Houston spent most of the offseason operating without a general manager before hiring now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown to fill that vacancy in January.
There’s been little doubt that Click would land on his feet with another club. His three-year stint as the general manager in Houston resulted in three playoff berths, after all, two of which (2021-22) saw the ‘Stros take home the American League pennant. While it’s only fair to acknowledge that the prior front office regime, headed by Jeff Luhnow, laid the groundwork for a good deal of that success with acquisitions/signings of stars like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and others, Click oversaw trades acquiring Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero, signed free agents like Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek, and was in the GM seat for extensions of both Ryan Pressly and Alvarez.
Prior to his that three-year run with Houston, Click spent 15 years in the Rays organization. The Yale graduate first joined Tampa Bay as a baseball operations coordinator back in 2006 and slowly made his way up the organizational ladder, spending time with most departments along the way before eventually being tapped the Rays’ vice president of baseball operations in 2017. He held that post for three years before being hired away by Houston in the fallout from MLB’s investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.
The Blue Jays didn’t specify a length on Click’s contract, though it stands to reason that regardless of contract length, he’ll again emerge as a candidate for teams seeking either a general manager or president of baseball operations in the future. It’s a relatively similar situation to the one that brought Ben Cherington to the Jays for a few years. Cherington, the former Red Sox GM, was hired as a vice president of baseball operations in Toronto back in 2016, less than a year removed from being ousted in Boston. He held that post through the fall of 2019, when the Pirates hired Cherington as their new general manager.
Any future GM/president appointments for Click will obviously depend on his own appetite for returning to a position with baseball autonomy and the slate of candidates he finds himself interviewing against, but at the very least there will surely be interest in a 45-year-old exec with 15 years of experience in one of the game’s model baseball ops departments (Tampa Bay) and a three-year run in Houston that included three playoff berths, two World Series appearances and a World Series championship.