The Padres announced Thursday they’ve signed free-agent righty Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly receive a $3.5MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2023. After the upcoming season, the Padres will have to decide whether or not to pick up successive $16MM options for 2024 and 2025 — essentially a two-year, $32MM deal. If the club declines that option, Wacha will have a series of player options, respectively valued at $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in 2025-26. Unlike the team option, Wacha’s options are a series of one-year decisions he’ll be able to make each offseason.
Since player options are considered guaranteed, all this amounts to a $26MM guarantee over four years, combining this year’s money with the three options. Additionally, Wacha can earn an extra $500K for reaching 20 and 25 starts and $1MM for 30 starts this season and any year under a player option. The incentives would not be available for 2024-25 if the club triggers its option. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, the Padres placed infielder Eguy Rosario on the 60-day injured list. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that Rosario suffered a broken ankle and would be out until “midsummer.”
Wacha, 31, was the best remaining starting pitcher on the market and arguably the best free agent left standing overall. The right-hander turned in 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball in 2022 — a fine rebound showing after a tough three-year stretch from 2019-21. Wacha’s 6% walk rate in 2022 was particularly sharp, and he scaled back his home run rate quite a bit in 2022 (1.83 HR/9 from 2019-21; 1.27 HR/9 in 2022). He was better than average at limiting hard contact from his opponents, surrendering an 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate.
The 2022 performance, however, wasn’t without its red flags. A pair of trips to the injured list, one for an intercostal strain and another for shoulder inflammation, limited him to 23 starts. That shoulder issue was his fourth IL placement due to shoulder trouble since 2014. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball rate were below the league average, albeit by a matter of a couple percentage points each.
Ultimately, Wacha had a solid season but can’t reasonably be expected to replicate that shiny 3.32 ERA. Beyond some of last year’s under-the-hood numbers, it should be pointed out that from 2019-21, Wacha pitched 285 1/3 innings with a 5.11 ERA between the Cardinals, Mets and Rays. Wacha’s strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that stretch all compare favorably to his 2022 work, however, and the main culprit for his struggles in that stretch could well have been an anomalously high home-run rate that trended back toward his career levels in 2022.
In all likelihood, Wacha’s true talent level lies somewhere between the extremes of that 2019-21 stretch and his sharp 2022 output. Fielding-independent marks pegged him around 4.00 last year (4.14 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA). That’d make him a solid option closer to the back end of a big league rotation, which is just where he’s likely to slot in with his new club in San Diego. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are slotted into the top three rotation spots, but Wacha will give the Friars a solid No. 4 option.
Both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have been expected to be utilized as starters with the Padres in 2023, but it’s not a given that Wacha will push either to the bullpen. There’s been talk of a six-man rotation in San Diego, which is only sensible given that Martinez and Lugo both worked primarily out of the bullpen in 2022. Martinez made 10 starts for the Padres but 37 relief appearances, finishing out the season at 106 1/3 innings. Lugo has been exclusively a reliever in 2021-22, with his last start coming for the 2020 Mets. Both righties will likely see their workloads monitored in 2023, so bringing Wacha into the mix both gives the Padres some sorely needed depth and gives them an organic mechanism with which to manage the innings counts for Martinez and Lugo.
Even looking beyond the possible six-man rotation, the Padres are now simply better positioned to withstand an injury to one of their top five arms. That’s of particular importance, as recent trades have thinned out the system’s depth. Gone are MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Luis Patino, Cal Quantrill and Robert Gasser, who were traded in the respective packages that netted Juan Soto, Taylor Rogers, Snell, Mike Clevinger (who departed as a free agent) and Josh Hader.
The top depth options behind Martinez and Lugo on the 40-man roster had been Adrian Morejon (57 1/3 innings in 2022), Ryan Weathers (6.73 ERA in Triple-A), Reiss Knehr (6.88 ERA in Triple-A), Pedro Avila (13 1/3 MLB innings) and Jay Groome (zero MLB experience; 67 innings in Triple-A). Non-roster veterans in camp include Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks. Suffice it to say, any serious injury to the starting staff pre-Wacha would’ve stretched the depth; two might have been disastrous. Wacha helps to lessen such risks.
Wacha’s deal was surely structured with care, in an effort to keep the team shy of the third luxury tax barrier. The convoluted option sequence serves to tamp down the deal’s average annual value. Wacha’s deal comes with a $6.5MM hit for competitive balance tax purposes, with the 2023 money and three player options all treated as guaranteed years from a CBT angle.
San Diego had been estimated less than $7MM away from the third tier of luxury penalization, which kicks in at $273MM. If the Friars exceed that point, they’ll begin to be taxed at a 75% rate for any money spent up to $293MM (rather than the 45% rate at which they were taxed on the previous $20MM spent). That’s a small slap on the wrist by itself, but stepping into the third bracket of luxury penalties also pushes a team’s top pick in the next year’s draft (i.e. 2024) back by ten places. The team’s league-allotted bonus pool is also inherently reduced, in conjunction with the diminished slot value of that pick.
The Padres are a team in all-out win-now mode, but they’ve ostensibly been unwilling to pass the $273MM threshold and incur the associated draft penalties. Even this agreement with Wacha would likely not have been possible had the team not signed the aforementioned Darvish to an extension that tamped down the AAV on his own contract, giving them a couple million dollars of extra wiggle room with regard to the tax.
The apparent unwillingness to step into tier three of the luxury tax is understandable, to an extent, given that the front office surely wants to recoup some of the minor league talent that was lost in trades for Soto, Hader and others. That said, it’s still possible that in-season needs will prompt the team to make a tough decision on that front, as the trade deadline could come down to a matter of taking on salary (and crossing into that tax bracket anyway) or persuading trade partners to pay down the salary of any players being sent to San Diego, which would likely require the Padres to surrender additional minor league talent anyhow. There’s an argument that the Padres should’ve just barreled past the tax line in the offseason, but it seems they’ll continue trying to thread the needle of fielding the strongest possible club while preserving the strongest possible 2024 draft. Whether that path remains tenable come July remains to be seen.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the agreement, financial terms and incentive breakdown.
Wow!
Wowzer, the Padres are all in
It can no longer be denied. Wacha`s signing clearly proves that it’s World Series or bust for the Padres
WS or bust? Not with all the long term contracts and commitment long-term from Seidler. They look like a perennial WS contender next decade, assuming humans persist that long
Championship or bust is such an overused, overrated saying. It’s not like the Padres are going to fold up and more to Memphis if they don’t win it all.
They only have Soto for two more years and Cronenworth for three and their rotation post-2023 is Darvish, Musgrove and who?
They have a payroll of about $275M. Even if they don’t produce one minor leaguers, they can have 9 position players, 5 SPs, and a closer making almost $20M each for that type of outlay.
Jay Groome looked good in AAA last year and then starting next year he has to either be kept on the major league roster at all times or exposed to waivers so might as well give him a shot.
Ad in Machado will opt out.
As I said below, I think ownership will agree to restructure his contract. Although until that actually happens yeah, it’s probably fair to cite Machado’s pending opt-out as a reason why the Padres are in “championship or bust” mode.
Soto and Crone for 2/3 years isn’t a bad thing.
Musgrove, Darvish and Martinez next year, maybe Morejon settles in, and they’ll pick up more SPs as a lot of $ comes off the books with Snell and Pomz etc…. Nothing about the organization seems to suggest they won’t sign another star SP within a year? A few years from now they bring up SP class of Lesko, Snelling, Mazur, Lizarraga, Williams. One or two of those might not get traded, haha..
After Tatis, Bogaerts, either Machado or Soto (not likely both) and a yet to be determined reload by AJP. Who knows what the roster will look like beyond a few years? If the revenues stay high, my guess is that its competitive
They gave Martinez another opt-out. If he’s still here it means he sucked in 2023. And as for the young pitchers you mentioned I have a bridge to sell you if you think they will be able to develop any of them.
That’s not true regarding Nick M only being in SD after ’23 if he sucks. He breaks out the Padres have the option of keeping him for 2 more years at 16m a piece. It might take a low 3’s era over 150+ innings for them to do that, but it’s a potential scenario. If he’s not good enough at that rate and they decline their 2/32 option, then yes, he can stay at 2/16m.
My guess is they trade them as top prospects – it’s what they seem to do – I don’t love the idea but it’s how they brought in Musgrove, Yu, Soto, etc…
1.41 WHIP is good?
Wacha 4yrs… Nick Martinez team option 2/32 or player option 2/17 has 2yrs..
Joe/Yu/Wacha and Nick all signed for 23/24/25 +++.. also Lugo has a player option for 24
No Martinez has a team option 2/32 $16mil per which would mean he was a Stud
If not exercised he has a player option. 2/17 $8,5 per.. which means he was mediocre or seen as a better reliever
Or 3 he can simply opt out means he was OK as a SP but not 2/32 ok.. and not 2/17 like either..
Pretty creative arrangement
Prior to this signing the Padres payroll stood at about $267 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hUvYNZODpusJEJQm41EPUDHXi-fSWtWmxY54X4OW3Q4/edit#gid=1520401900
Pretty close to $275 million and it would allow them to pay 13 players players the $20 million you were talking about
Holy crackers. Did you put that whole thing together?
Henry, Take a look at https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-diego-padres/
Martinez has a player option after both 2023 and 2024
Lugo has a player option after 2023.
Wacha’s deal is structured similar to Martinez’s
It seems to me that Padres are not planning to keep any of them after 2023. They are really hoping all three pitch well enough that they opt out. The 2023-2024 FA starting pitching market is deep.
Ad in Machado will opt out.
========================
Those things don’t make that much difference. If he opts out, that frees up $32M. They can buy a lot of wins with $32M.
In fact, I’d guess they’d be better off letting him leave, tagging him, and moving Bogaerts to 3B and Kim back to SS, and Crone back to 2nd. Then spending the $32M on pitching.
So the GM who has been the most active on all fronts–trades, FA, international market–is all of a sudden not going to be able to fill out a rotation after this season? Seems reasonable. /s
National league version of the yankees
The Friars are being aggressive. Percentage says some deals may not turn out 100%? But that is life. But most MLB Teams seem like they are going through the motions. Friars want to win NOW.
@JoeBrady If what you are saying is true, that the Padres would be better off letting Manny walk if he opts out, then he’s 100% not opting out.
Lots of iffs.
At the expense of the farm. Kudos to them but he chance of it backfiring is still pretty substantial. I think spending lavishly doesn’t guarantee results and other teams find other ways to win. The fact that the Padres are spending so lavishly suggest that tihs is their only option.
then he’s 100% not opting out.
=========================
Not necessarily. There are a fair amount of players out there that might have more appeal to other teams than their current teams, and vice versa.
The marginal benefit of a #1 SP, as opposed to the benefit of having Machado at 3B instead of Bogaerts, sounds intuitive to me, but FFTD.
Yes necessarily. In practice, when a player has an opt-out. He always does the opposite of what his team wants him to do with it.
And as for the thought that Manny might have more appeal to other teams than the Padres: 1. He doesn’t. 2. If that were the case the Padres would be better off if he couldn’t opt out or simply chose not to because then they could trade him to that other team for an a**load of prospects. What sounds better to you: Trading a player for prospects or losing him for nothing? Would you rather have prospects or not have prospects, all other things equal?
If Machado opts out it would clear up $30 million.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-diego-padres/
And replacing his production in free agency would cost even more.
Just dont play the phillies in the playoffs
This “Wow!” is completely justified.
Should be a nice insurance piece for the 5th and 6th rotation spots. We ride
Wacha Flocka Flame goes Hard in the Paint.
Which Michael will Wacha through the club house door, efficient or just plain awful?
Wacha Wacha Wacha
WaChA wAcHa WaChA
I’m surprised Wacha lasted this long.
That’s what she said.
Well played!
No one wanted to give Wacha a multi year contract which be demanded.
Let’s see what the Padres gave him…
A multi-year deal. 4 years. Like most of their recent deals, it substantially lowers the AAV of the deal
Has team options. Not clear when those are. Money after a team option isn’t guaranteed and thus isn’t counted towards a team’s luxury tax burden. I’m not sure how it works if this is one of those arrangements where it starts as a team option but becomes a player option if he pitches x number of innings with an ERA below y, however.
The fact that he did after a decent year should be a huge red flag…..either physically or personality-wise. There is something in this guys background that kept most of the league (including the pitching hungry red sox) from signing this guy a lot earlier in FA.
Insane how this Preller dork “builds” this team. No skill. Just a bum hopped up up Mountain Dew: Code Red with Uncle Scrooge’s money to burn.
Nice
Noice
*tongue click* noice
@Kew: Uncle Scrooge was rich but tight. Preller is closer to Delorean. Minus the TicTac commercial wife.
Building those teams like the Dodgers Mets and Yankees.
Dodgers don’t buy every free agent, chump. Check again.
Whatchu smokin Ramos? Alex Reyes, Kershaw, Shelby Miller, JD Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, David Peralta, Jason Heyward all in last few months.
Shall I continue? Bauer, Freeman, Turner, Daniel Hudson, Tyler Anderson, Danny Duffy, Andrew Heaney, Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson, Albert Pujols, Tommy Kahnle, in last year or two
All teams sign players. What the Dodgers did was essentially plug in guys where they needed, didn;t break the bank and kept the top prospects who are all scheduled to contribute in 2023. Tell me, outside of Freeman, who did they break the bank for? You listed a long list of reclamation projects, guys they got on the cheap and fixed.
hard to break the bank when you have the biggest bank in MLB! But the notion that the Dodgers don’t buy guys (ie. sign FAs) was the point I addressed. I know they also develop young players as well. They also serve up lucrative contracts, Betts, Price, Bauer, etc… They wield the highest payroll in MLB over last decade, and to their advantage.
Name me one 100 million dollar dodger free
Agent contract other than Freddie. You cant. Another clueless mlb fan
The Dodgers just sign players like Betts to immense contracts.
@Kew hate to clue you fool there was Bauer $103 MM, Kevin Brown $107MM, Greinke $147 MM
Kevin Brown lol.
No, that was a special case for a special player. Dodgers are not one to give super long contracts.
Had to did hard to find two of those guys. Only Bauer was signed by the current front office. Try again.
He had to dig for that one.
Betts. Freeman. 25% of their current position players are on long term deals.
Kershaw. Grieinke. Both signed to long term deals by the Dodgers.
The criteria stated was large free agent contracts. Where do you get 25% of their current position players being on a long term contract? Two starting position players are but there aren’t only eight position players on a roster.
Freeman and Bauer both fit. Betts is close but he was under team control and was therefore an extension—though I think it’s a bit disingenuous since he wasn’t brought up through the LA system.
Kershaw is a stretch as a homegrown player and has never signed a free agent contract with LA that exceeds 100 million anyway.
Greinke pitched three seasons in LA, so it appears that they were prepared to let him opt out. That contract was excellent for LA as they paid him 70 million for those three seasons of excellent production.
in response to this from Kew:
“Name me one 100 million dollar dodger free
Agent contract other than Freddie. You cant. Another clueless mlb fan”
***************************************************************************
I simply provided evidence of who, in fact, is Kewless
didn’t have to dig deep at all
@ toptim. The criteria stated above was “Name me one 100 million dollar dodger free
Agent contract other than Freddie. You cant. Another clueless mlb fan”. It’s disingenuous to state otherwise or argue with strawmen
Going by this LAD are going to be in a world of hurt next offseason Othani 10-$500 and Urias 7-$235 will never wear LAD after 2023.. and that’s good for my Padres cause we see them boys in FA and we go at them like kids in a Candy store… LAD going from Big Bro to Baby Bro really quick
“Dodgers are not one to give super long contracts.”
Obviously they do give long contracts.
Only Dodgers currently signed past 2025 are Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Chris Taylor has a $12m club option with a $4m buyout for 2026.
Depends on the cost. At $15m x 2 that he was looking for, there were no takers. For one year, I’d love to get whatever number he got and spend it in San Diego.
It nice the Friars FRONT OFFICE and OWNER want to WIN. Most other Teams want to collect their Paychecks.
Not including Tatis, Preller has somehow assembled 4 of the top 30 position players in baseball on one team with 3 other position filled with players that were above league average last season, and he did it with no skill. What dumb luck!!
Totally without skill that bum has also put together a starting pitching rotation to start the season that includes 3 players ranked in the top 36 in ERA, FIP, and bWAR over the last 2 seasons.
Preller has somehow assembled 4 of the top 30 position players in baseball on one team
=======================
That’s one way to look at it. Another way is to consider his 10th best record with the 6th highest payroll.
Joe Brady are you saying AJP pushed Tati off the bike and creamed his ringworm?
If he was going to do that, he’d have done so before he signed the l/t contract.
Another way to look at it is NLCS with 6th largest payroll without what project to be two of the top 5 position players on the 2023 team.
Bogaerts was not on that team last season. Tatis missed the entire season. Soto and Hader were only there for 2 months of the 2022 regular season.
Another way to look at it is that Pads had the 6th highest payroll, but in late October 22 they were one of only 4 teams left standing
4.54 xERA last year and awful the two years prior. Yikes
FIP and xFIP about league average last year. Better than Clevinger and Manaea … and in a hitter’s park.
How he do each of the 5 years before that?
Who cares? They aren’t going to decline signing a player because of how he played five years ago.
Oh no? Seems like 29 other teams did. So 29/30 = 96.6667777% of teams who care
You don’t understand. You need to pick which stat/s from the past x years best support/s your argument while ignoring the rest.
The point is that Wacha was horrible the three years prior to last year. That’s why no one wanted to give him a multi year contract. Roll the dice and see which Wacha shows up in 2023. His FIP hasn’t been under 4 since 2017. It was well over 5 in two of the last four years. I curious as what they are paying him and how long they will be paying him.
It’s a good signing, right up until the moment it isn’t.
Thanks for the hard-hitting analysis Johnny Superscout!
If the indicators concerning his reduction of his HR rate are true, the Pads picked up a very nice 4th starter, especially if they utilize a quasi-six man rotation. In the few games I saw him pitch it was very noticeable that Wacha gives up low exit velocity on batted balls. You take the low exit velo coupled with home run control and a very spacious home stadium conducive to pitching to contact and you have the makings of a very reliable pitcher who will keep you in ball games.
Pads willing to Wacha mile for another starter…
He’s a risk but who isn’t when you’re signing as the #4 starter?
Watched him all year in Tampa 2 years ago, He would pitch great for 4-5 innings and have 1 bad inning. In Boston, he limited those bad innings.
He’s a bit of a gamble, but not at 4/24M IMO.
Um, didn’t he have a 3.32 era last year???
It’s not what he did, it’s what the peripherals say he could have did that matter.
When projecting pitching, most systems weigh the most recent seasons heavier than say with hitting and especially defense, but still include at least the last 3 seasons or so with changes in things like K and BB rates getting even more heavily weighted in the recent seasons. Changes in velocity are also a huge indication of change in talent. I think (but may be wrong) zips and steamer for example consider it. This isn’t specific to Wacha, he seems straight forward to project, an ok #5 but not your first choice, just pointing out each Stat should be looked at differently, especially how they are viewed year to year. Pitcher babip is far more volatile than k rate, but should not be excluded completely. Also the eyeball test (scouting) probably should get heavier weighting for pitchers year to year. I don’t think any public projections consider recent scouting insight.
I don’t understand why you chose to highlight the peripheral stat that has the most cynical measurement of Wacha. All together they already describe him as at best a no. 4 and a no. 5 if you’re a contender. Why paint him in a color worse than that.
I was making a point about how projections usually treat pitchers not trashing Wacha. It was more about the discussion of his stats in this thread and how to some extent all stats should matter including babip, velocity and visual scouting information. It’s just it all should he treated differently from each other and have different year on year variances. I don’t think we disagree on him being a #5 for the Padres, and I’m sure they would have loved to find someone a little better, but he makes perfect sense at this point, so I think we’re actually mostly in agreement about his talent level.
The short version of what I just said is it was more about projecting pitching than him specifically.
I dont think SalaryCapMyth was replying to you
Well that would make more sense lol
Just Jurickson Profar remaining on the Top 50 list
This was a move I was hoping for to help out the rotation. I just hope they didn’t over pay. I say they give him 1 year 8 million with an option. Anything more than that give or take is an overpay in my opinion.
Last I read was 4 years, $24M, but how that’s structured, with/without incentives or options, matters as much as the AAV.
Nice move by Friars. It definitely adds depth to the rotation.
Is adding a body the same thing as adding depth? He’s injury prone and inconsistent. Every start he does make, the bullpen will be warming in the 5th.
Every start he makes means the bullpen will have been prevented from pitching 9 innings. Signing Wacha means fewer bullpen games. That is the point.
He is not expected to make 30 starts or pitch 180 innings. 20-24 starts and 100-120 innings will be just fine from a guy that will be the #5 starter in a 6 man rotation.
I am just stating that ANY starter, even a rookie, will have the same odds of providing those stats as Wacha. If they didn’t sign Wacha, I highly doubt he would have been replaced by a reliever.
And you would be wrong. Again.
Clevinger, Manaea, and Gore were not able to provide the performance that Wacha did last season. That is why he was signed.
Still wouldn’t be wrong as often as you.
MacKenzie Gore will have a better season in 2023 than Wacha. I’ll give you the other 2 though.
I hope you’re right about Gore. But let’s hope Soto has a better year than Abrams
I didn’t agree with giving up all that prospect capital for Soto but him having a better year than Abrams in 2023 is a pretty safe bet.
I’m not sure I agreed with it either. Those were some of the best prospects SD has ever had.
Soto had a 130 OPS+ with the Padres. If all he ever did was be 30% better than the average hitter that is still a huge upgrade from Myers and others that have patrolled the Padres corner OF spots the last few years.
That said, I think that this year we can expect a return to a 150 or higher OPS+
Top 100 prospects become major league average players 20% of the time. 3% put up at least one 4.0 WAR season in their careers.
Soto is insanely talented. When the worst stretch of your career is a 130 OPS+ and you have a 166 OPS+ over your age 20-22 seasons, then you are a proven commodity that is worth the 20% chance those prospects eventually become a major league player.
No need to prove that Soto is a talent, everyone knows that! But if he’s only around 2 more years and any one of Wood, Abrams, Hassell, Susana and Gore become allstars (good chance of that by the way, especially with Wood or Susana), then I don’t like the trade. If they resign Soto, the trade is likely worthwhile.
And, it’s a personal thing of mine, I think I’d prefer a team with a bunch of young stars that competes at high level over long-term with those same stars, than 1 or 2 championships (assuming that happens with Soto 23 or 24 – big if).
Even if Soto re-signs with SD it has to be for at least a $143.5m discount for the trade to be worth it. That was the surplus value of Gore et al on the day Juan Soto was traded according to Baseball Trade Values. If he doesn’t give them that big of a discount the Padres would have been better off keeping the prospects, waiting until Soto is a free agent and then offering him “Whatever it takes.”
… unless the Padres win a championship in 2023 or 2024 and Soto plays well in that postseason in which case nothing else matters.
I think he said that there is a 3% chance that any top 100 prospect becomes an All Star. 4.0 WAR = All Star.
I thought it was 5% or 1 in 20, but either way its unlikely more than one of those 5 ever has a single season with a 4.0 WAR or higher. Its not a sure thing that any of them do.
Unless he gets hurt, there is pretty close to a 100% chance Soto does both in 2023 and 2024
The Padres have multiple core pieces locked up long term. It doesn’t seem that they are shooting at just one competitive season.
As for me, give me a ring I will trade a decade of struggling for one ring. The Angels got one about 2 decades ago. The Padres never have. If I owned the Padres that would be my focus. Break the streak.
“He” is you lmfao
Solid pick up especially since I don’t see Martinez and Lugo as starters. They look pretty formidable on paper but the Dodgers are still imo the team to beat out west.
Chris from NJ:
Compare dodgers vs. Padres position by position and tell us why you still think LA is the team to beat.
Thanks
LA has way more depth at every position, bud. That matters. Padres top bat off the bench is, uh…checks notes here…..um….Adam Engel? Yikes
Actually will be carpenter or Cruz. The dodgers so called depth comes from depending on rookies. Maybe they’ll be good maybe they won’t. Dodgers lost a lot of depth when trea, Bellinger and Justin left.
Saying the Dodgers have more infield depth than the Padres is wild. Machado, Tatis, X, Kim, Cronenworth and Carpenter is a stacked group.
I’ll take that over Muncy, Rojas, Lux, Freeman, Vargas, and Taylor any day.
2 corpses, 1 bench
You know what depth means or nah?
Oh you’re talking about Oklahoma City vs El Paso? I was just running back all the infielders on the MLB rosters but maybe you’re right, Dodgers AAA team could be really good
And the bench players, of which the Padres have none
Who are the these really good bench players the dodgers have?
Padres have a deeper lineup, deeper pen and I’ll give the dodgers a deeper rotation but I this signing definitely helps with the padres starting pitching depth.
Please show many all this elite dodgers position depth.
Rojas, Taylor, Peralta have all been average or better big leaguers for a long time. Busch and Vargas have torn up the high minors for the last 2 seasons.
Padres have Brandon Dixon (lol), Jose Outzocar (hahahah), and Adam Engel (ooooof). Nobody in the high minors whatsoever. And I do mean nobody.
Pitching? Let’s not waste our time
Gmoney is a maroon who’s jelly of the Dads. His giants are about to get pimp slapped
Rojas had a 72 ops+ last year and was below avg the year before. Taylor had an ops+ of 86 last year and peralta ops+ of 92 last year. So the main 3 depth players you listed were all below or well below avg hitters a year ago. The padres could roll out just about anyone to match those stats.
You may have some depth names but you are wanting some real improvements from those players if you think that depth is any good. Also those players will be playing a lot for the dodgers because the starters ahead of them are just as unreliable.
Once again the only real depth the dodgers have is if the rookies perform and that is far from a sure thing.
La is def a boss team but everybody is sleeping on the Dbacks
Now do stats from a statistically relevant sample (last 3-4 years) and compare them to Brandon Dixon
Dixon isn’t going to crack the roster
The stats of a full season a year ago is very relevant. It’s literally the most relevant of any stats. Going back 3-4 years ago to find a players success is you being wishful or then returning it to that success.
List the dodgers starting 9 and then their bench. It has more question marks than it’s had in years.
Who is then? What’s the Padres bench rn?
Gmoney is a giants fan that overtly loves the doyers
Every projection system accounts for multiple years of performance, dude
List the zips wRC+ projections for the aforementioned players below:
I’m a fan of another team but here’s what I see between LA SD
1b. Crone/Carpenter v Freeman LA
2b Crone/Kim v Vargas SD
SS Bogaerts/Kim/Tatis v Lux/Rojas SD
3b. Machado v Muncy SD
LF. Soto v Taylor SD
CF. Grisham/Engel v Thompson/Luke Williams SD
RF. Tatis v Betts EVEN
C. Nola/Campusano v Smith/Barnes LA
DH. Carpenter/Cruz v Heyward/Hernandez SD
Results: SD 6 LA 2 even 1
maroon? No need to bring race into this…
Forgot about JD Martinez as DH. Revised:
SD 5 LA 2 Even 2
It’s not even close.
So you agree the dodgers are counting on players to return to performing as they did 2-3-4 years ago.
They should have kept Bellinger if they wanted to hope on players playing like they did 3-4 years ago.
Zips wRC+
Vargas – 115
Busch – 108
Taylor – 106
Peralta – 98
Rojas – 92, w/ +13 D and 2.7 war
They have Carpenter and Nelson Cruz but yes…depth is an issue.
But it isn’t “more” important than the starting 9
Or a trade is in the works involving Pomeranz,Grisham or Kim
Once again two rookies which could be very good but they are rookies and 3 players that are looking to bounce back. Plus Taylor is currently a starter.
I’ll take my chances with the padres starting 9 and their current bench.
If the dodgers are going to be better then the padres this year it will be because of starting pitching.
Lol! I love when people do this! lol! Because that’s how baseball is played. Position by position. Lol!
How did Bellinger hit last year?
@brew…..and the Dodgers will win more games!
He didn’t! MLB pitchers has adjusted to him, but refuses to change his style.. Too bad becaise tje Cubs are going to find out very quickly he is not the 2019 player!
Compare dodgers vs. Padres position by position and tell us why you still think LA is the team to beat.
========================
It is probably better to compare their 2022 records, and then add/subtract for players acquired and lost. LA was 22 games better, and an amazing 30 games better on Py W/L.
JoeBrady and the Padres “added” Tatis,Bogaerts,Carpenter,and a full year of Juan Soto.
The dodgers….got worse.
Still have to play the games and the dodgers always pull a ROY out of their system but it looks like SD has the better team….but not depth.
Just about every team is “one injury away” from having an OK rotation.
Except for those that aren’t good when all are healthy.
MrPadre, I would include a full season of Hader and Pomeranz plus Nelson Cruz to that list of Padres additions.
Its a pretty good bet that the Dodgers will still be a 90 win club.
Tatis, Boegarts, Carpenter, Cruz, and a full season of Soto, Hader, Morejon, and Pomeranz.
Then add Wacha and Lugo to the 6 man rotation.
All I was saying is the Padres look good on paper. But the Dodgers are still the team to beat. They win year in year out. They adapt. Granted the Padres got better and the Dodger’s lost both Turner’s,Bellinger,etc. Your counting on Tatis who is a huge question mark, Darvish is a year older and what Hader is going to show up. I wouldn’t call it a season before pitchers and catchers report.
The team with the most recent better record is always the team to beat.
Here it is a wash.
Dodgers dominated the regular season over Padres in 2022.
Padres took the playoffs.
New dudes have to show they gel before you annoint a new front runner. See Mets and Atlanta. Padres are gonna be in the mix. Just talk til the play the games tho.
Manny, this is a really good point, and tbh, I have the Padres as the team to beat; here’s why: I view the playoff series as an indication of their team’s capabilities with the personnel they added after the trade deadline. The Dodgers were stout all year. I don’t disagree with your premise on their overall records, but I give the Padres the edge because they beat the LAD in the playoffs.
Either way, both are so good the race this season is going to be tremendous to watch. Love seeing teams that want to win going for broke like this! Throw in the Mets, Braves, & Phillies? Oh man, it’s going to be great for the NL fans.
XB weakens them at SS, and Tatis will be a cancer in the clubhouse, pouting because he’s not the SS. The team jelled last year because he wasn’t there.
I think you’re wrong about Tatis. The kid wants to play ball, and already got his $. It’s not like he’s forfeiting value by moving positions. He just wants to win, as he’s said multiple times over the last couple weeks to reporters.
Bogaerts increases offense by nearly 40 percent at SS over the 93 OPS+ the team saw there last season ( https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=SDP&year=2022#defp ) while providing at least league average defense. He is a 1+ WAR improvement.
Tatis is far from a cancer in the clubhouse. He has already said he will play in the OF and wants to win the CF job at some point. He has been working out in SD all offseason and showed up in camp before pitchers and catchers even got there. Doesn’t sound like pouting to me.
The team jelled last season because they avoided injuries other than Tatis. 5 guys played 150+ games. Not one position player other than Tatis spent significant time on the DL.
Martinez was a quality starter in Japan and has shown he can throw 140-150 innings. He was decent last season. He will be just fine as a #4 starter.
I was not sure that Lugo could stretch out to make 20-24 starts as the #5. As a #6 that only has to make 12 or so starts with another 20-30 appearances out of the pen he should do well. Many of those “starts” and other appearances will probably be as an opener or piggyback to limit his innings. We know he has the stuff. Over the past 2 seasons he has been remarkably consistent with 3.50 and 3.60 ERAs and 3.76 and 3.77 FIP.s. That is outstanding for a 5th or 6th starter.
Padres beat the Dodgers in the playoffs and then got better in the offseason while the Dodgers lost ground, Not so sure the Dodgers are the team to beat anymore.
Who wants to hear a joke
AJ Preller. Hahahahh
Is it about Cody Bellinger?
Yep, nice add
Nice he’s been pitching for 30 years it seems
And only 31 years old…..lol
I was his age when I first heard about him and his funny last name
Way to go Padres!!! Love this!
Well of course they did.
11 years 70 million?
No, 30 years 1.2 billion
With a team option after each year.
70 years 11m
Zack Davies deuxieme acte?
Gives the padres some back end depth. Probably won’t produce the same era as last season. The season is long and pitchers will go down to injuries this helps when that happens.
Will also take the work load off of Martinez and lugo.
Was hoping the White Sox would sign him after the Clevinger debacle, but then I remembered that they don’t care about winning so much as they do about not sucking. 122 year history has produced just one 100-win season and only 4 where they lost 100. Long history of being also-rans. Rarely that good, rarely that bad.
Why, oh why, do I then continue to have hope every time ST rolls around?
Hope springs eternal, my friend
The Sox don’t deserve your loyalty, time, attention, or money. Jerry is just not a good dude and stands for greed, selfishness, cowardice, and deceit. After the past 3 offseasons and seeing so much of those character traits, I can’t even bring myself to root for them any longer to be honest. It’s like rooting for a team owned by the devil. Jerry is like the owner in “The Natural” who sits in a room with the shades drawn, counting his money. F this team. I’ll root for the Padres for now, why not.
Come on over everyone is welcome
It is truly amazing the parallels between the Sox and Padres. Sox “almost” got Machado, even though we all know Jerry wanted another team to outbid him. They gave the Padres Tatis Jr. And in addition, the Sox were just about to sign Juan Soto as an amateur when the Nationals grabbed him for like 25K more or something. So the Sox could have had Machado, Tatis, and Soto… instead all 3 are on the Padres. Incredible! Padres are going to score some runs, I hope those 3 and Xander stay healthy, whenever a team has a cluster of players that look so good on paper, it always seems like someone gets hurt or something. The Padres big 4 could be epic if all healthy. Best 4 hitters together in any lineup I can think of. Maybe in quite a while.
why would you just switch teams like that?first off im not a sox or padres fan.however the sox have alot of great history.and quite a few ws championships.the padres have,lets count em……drum roll please…..0 ws chapionships.if you must switch teams stay in your own city start hitting some cubs games.im a yanks fan.im not jumping ship,but if i was forced to do so the padres would be at the bottom of the list.hang in with your sox,they might surprise you.
I lived in San Diego for a few years. The White Sox have one championship in the last hundred years. They have one of the worst histories of any franchise, along with the Cubs, who likewise have one championship in a hundred years. If I know the Sox owner is basically evil, which is close to the truth, why would I remain loyal? I can’t root for the Cubs, is impossible to do for me. So I can certainly root for the Padres, without needing to justify myself! : )
White Sox have 1 WS title since 1917. 1 in 105 years. Padres came into being in 1969 I think.
the sox won ws in 1905 ,1917 and 2005.they also have alot more players in the hall of fame then younger generation of fans know about.and theres alot of fun history there..who will ever forget disco demolition night.
So… they have one WS win in 105 years since that 1917 win. They have just 9 playoff appearances in that 105 years. Not a lot of fun in going a decade or more between playoff appearances.
Yes, 1969 expansion team.
Crazy that his breakout postseason was almost 10 years ago. He’s had a decent career since then. I wonder if his favorite song is “Boulevard of Broken Dreams” because “I Wacha Lone”.
Yeah, agreed. Time flies. And I thought this guy was a can’t-miss type who would be in the upper echelon of pitchers for years to come
But even though that hasn’t panned out, I can still see him helping the Padres
Guessing that means the Padres were OK with paying the next tier of the CBT.
As a Dodger fan, I hate that the Padres are in win or die mode. As a baseball fan, I love the “how the hell good are they going to be since they’ve attempted to buy an entire roster in two years” anticipation. Obviously, I hope they fall on their faces, but, how is that gonna happen?
Injuries or under performance, same for pretty much any team.
Attitudes of Prima Donna’s. Waiting for Tatis to demand he play SS.
You;’ll be waiting a very long time.
Why would he make that demand? He’s signed through his age 35 season. Most players make that demand because it greatly decreases their value to have the same offensive from a corner outfield position instead of shortstop. That’s not prima donna. It’s looking out for yourself.
So what’s this pushing into the third tier of salary do to the Machado contract renegotiations? If they push the negotiations too long, they risk chilling the relationship and he activates his opt out to the market. But if they sign it now, theyre going to blow through the limits and pay through the nose in overage tax.
Chilling the relationship lol. There is a negative % chance Machado isn’t a padre for the rest of his career.
Negative percent chance… lol
The idea that the Pads consider him under contract for 6 full yrs and that the ball is in his court to approach him to renegotiate what is now a lower than market contract is the laughable part. My point is, it’s time for the team to proactively come to him so that he doesn’t somehow make your “negative %” a reality. That delta between his current AAV and the new contract AAV would be taxed put the wazoo as well as push their draft position down as the article noted.
He’s definitely going to become a free agent unless they get something done in the next yr. That’s no guarantee that he leaves, which I get is your point — but there are a lot more mouths to feed and I would certainly disagree with you that the change is negative.
From the SD paper:
“Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said recently that the ball is in Machado’s court to initiate discussion regarding a new deal. Preller has indicated that the team’s view is that Machado is under contract for the next six years.”
Boegarts plays SS this year and then moves to 3B when Machado departs.
The Other Manny
Unless the Mets offer him more money
There I corrected it for you
When he was traded to the Dodgers, Machado said he would not sign with a NY team in free agency. He was true to his word and signed with the Padres. I seriously doubt that his opinion of NY has changed.
If the Marlins were spending big, they might have a chance to get him to move home. The Mets have no chance.
A NY team didn’t offer him $300m when his agent said a $300m guarantee was a must.
Lozano never said that. He called out several reporters in Jan 2019 for spreading manure rumors like that.
Yes he did. It was reported on here. And by Ken Rosenthal on Twitter.
Found several articles that said he called out 2 reporters for spreading false rumors and none that said what you are trying to claim.
Here is every article on this website that mentions Dan Lozano. Point out the one where he says that Machado would require a $300 million guarantee.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/?s=Lozano
I will when you link to where Lozano “called out 2 reporters for spreading false rumors” and that Manny requiring a $300m guarantee was one of those “false rumors” and where Manny specifically said he was not signing with a NY team.
@BallballisLife:
Pretty sure that Cohen cash will trump his blood bond commitment to the Friars in that quote. Who would have thought that this past Winter’s overspending would have happened? Also, Cohen wasn’t in the picture when Manny made that statement.
No evidence that Manny ever did make that statement. If anything it was the other way around. Yankees beat writers didn’t want him because they thought he was lazy/had a bad attitude. Although no one with direct ties to Brian Cashman actually said that publicly.
Though Padres fans don’t like to talk about it, it’s pretty clear that that issue did hurt Manny in free agency. With his talent, track record and age, a $300m guarantee should have been automatic. Clearly his agent felt similarly considering his comments about it being the absolute minimum for them to even talk to you.
The point is that he should have gotten even more than he got. He was 26 years old, already on a Hall of Fame trajectory and didn’t even cost a draft pick to sign. The general consensus at the start of his free agent offseason was that $300m guaranteed was the floor for him. It was certainly the floor for his agent. He told teams “We aren’t even going to talk to you unless you put a $300m guarantee on the table.”
And was the “What an idiotic comment” thing really necessary?
You made the claim. I gave you the chance to prove your claim with a link to every article on this website about Lozano and you tried to change the subject. Showing clearly that you lied.
Wow. You make a stupid comment and then try to claim that he should have gotten more than the biggest FA contact ever at the time?
I did the same thing to you with the “Machado said he’s not signing with a NY team when he was traded to the Dodgers” story and the “Manny’s agent called reporters out for spreading false rumors” story. If you’re not going to provide a link to back up your claims, why should I?
Yeah, he should have gotten more. Many people said at the start of his free agent offseason that he would clear $300m in his sleep. What Manny Machado has done the last 3 seasons did NOT come out of nowhere. This wasn’t some unproven guy who we weren’t sure how his talent would translate at the MLB level.
The point is that he should have gotten even more than he got.
========================
So he got the largest contract in the history of baseball AND deserved more?
Justme, That would be interesting if true. I found nothing on Rosenthal’s Twitter feed in 2019 or in the link baseballislife posted for this website. Can you post a link?
@JoeBrady See now you get it 🙂
@Pads Fans Like I said above I’ll do that once BaseballisLife posts a link to Manny Machado saying while he was with the Dodgers that he’s absolutely not signing with a NY team. And no, the fact that he ultimately did not sign with a NY team doesn’t exactly mean he was never going to. Especially when neither of them are confirmed to have even come close to what the Padres offered him.
I found several articles that were like this one, https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/16/dan-lozano-manny-machados-agent-calls-out-bob-nightengale-and-buster-olney/ where Lozano singled out Olney and Nightengale for lying about the White Sox offer, but none about Machado saying he would not play in NY. Having talked to Manny in spring training and while the team was playing on the road and hearing him make negative comments about playing in NYC I don’t doubt he said that, but would love to see an article. Can you post a link?
Justme, Just read every article in the Times and the Post during the 2018-2019 offseason about Machado, before and after he signed with the Padres, and not one beat writer said that he was lazy or had a bad attitude.
That offseason those writers wrote quite a few articles about players complaining about the dearth if FA contracts. They talked about the Yankees didn’t need to spend the money because they were coming off a 100 win season and had Andujar at 3B, but not once did they attempt to denigrate Machado as a player. That is something you made up.
No where did Lozano say that it was the minimum for them to even talk to a team. Not once in any of those articles.
I didn’t make anything up. I don’t have to. There was plenty of talk when Manny was a free agent and in the years leading up to it that Manny supposedly was a dirty player/had an attitude problem/didn’t hustle. I already prefaced that I didn’t hear that from anyone with direct ties to Brian Cashman, however. And any problems there might have been then clearly aren’t there today. The dude has clearly done some growing up the last 4 years and embraced a leadership role in San Diego.
So what’s your take on why teams besides the Padres didn’t want to go to $300m on Manny Machado? Like I said, he was a 26 y/o who was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory and didn’t cost a draft pick to sign.
Pads Fans and BaseballisLife are the same guy.
Also… the rumors that Dan Lozano called Buster Olney and Bob Nightengale out for spreading are not referenced in this thread. I never said anything about the White Sox’s alleged $175m offer to Manny. I will say now, however, that that offer would have fallen into the “insulting” category if it was made.
In fact, the article you just linked explicitly says “he (Manny Machado) was expected by many to fetch at least 10 years and $300m at the start of the offseason.”
Most likely the padres extend manny on a 12 year deal to lower is aav. Something like 12/330.
If I had to guess he and Daddy Pete probably figure something out but the only way he pulls a “Nolan Arenado” is if he gets injured or sucks in 2023.
@Simm Machado and Bogaerts are extremely similar, with Bogaerts as good at SS as Manny is at 3B, and Bogaerts putting up 5.6 rWAR / 650PA versus 5.2 rWAR. Knock off a peak year since Machado will be 31 in FA after 2023 while Bogaerts is going on 30. So turn Bogaerts’ 11/$280m deal into something like 10/$240m for Machado
Machado’s already due 5/$160m if he opts in, so would he take 5/$80m for his age 36-40 seasons added on to that? He might. Assuming the Padres are willing to offer it and assuming Machado has another 5-6 rWAR season in 2023.
In any case, Manny’s got 80% of a Hall of Fame career and he just finished his age 29 season. Amazing player.
Based on the Padres recent offers to and signings of top players, Machado is likely to sign an extension that actually lowers his AAV. That will help with whatever this does to the Padres CBT tax bill.
I am not sure what it will take to get him signed, but the numbers that keep coming up are 12 years and between 320-342 million. That seems realistic to me. So, of course, they will sign him for 14/360 or something like that.
Mac, I was wrong about that too. Looks like they are not pushing into that next tier of CBT.
…“how the hell good are they going to be since they’ve attempted to buy an entire roster in two years” anticipation…
You mean like the World Series Champion 1997 Florida Marlins?
Shouldn’t it be “the voice inside my yead?”
I have a hard time seeing Machado signing for less than what they were offering Trea Turner (largest contract for an infielder), so I’m thinking 342m is going to be the minimum he’d take. 12/342-350m would be my guess.
The link below compares Machado and Xander #’s over the past 5 years. I was surprised how close the were.
Xander .301/.373/.508, 133 OPS+, 23.4 bWAR
Manny .284/.355/.512, 138 OPS+, 23.7 bWAR
https://stathead.com/tiny/VzxKi
Turner was offered 14/342. A $24.43 million AAV
Machado is a year older than Turner so a small adjustment for age with a similar or slightly higher AAV?
12/300 including 2023? I have heard 12/320 including 2023 in a lot of places.
I didn’t hear the 14 years to Trea Turner, just for Aaron Judge. Contract wise for Manny it would be starting in 2023. 12/320 would be solid, think he’ll age like Adrian Beltre and Manny was quite a bit better offensively in his 20’s.
Take a look at Acee in the UT about Turner
Machado’s 159 OPS+ was the best offensive season of his career other than the shortened 2020 season.
12/340 it’s getting done before he leaves for WBC or soon after he comes back
how is that gonna happen?
=======================
1-I don’t think moving Bogaerts to 2B (or Kim) is going to be the big advantage they think it is. They either downgrade Kim’s glove value, or downgrade Bogaerts offensive value with a move.
2-I don’t think moving Cron to 1st is adding value for the same reason.
3-Tatis could be an issue for either giving up the PEDs, a shoulder injury, or just plain rust.
4-And I wouldn’t trust Hader completely. He had a good Sept/Oct, but his July/Aug ERA was 15.
Bogaerts is nearly a full point of WAR better than Kim at SS and was 24% better in OPS+.
Kim at 2B is a huge improvement over Cronenworth on defense and Cronenworth is very good. There was only a 4% difference in offense last season between the two. Kim at 2B is a huge win.
Cronenworth had a 21% better OPS+ than the rest of the 1B the Padres fielded there last season. He has also been a plus defender at 1B for his career while the other players that manned that position last season for the Padres were a combined -6 DRS. Huge win for the Padres.
With the shift being limited in 2023, the increased range of having Kim at 2B and Cronenworth at 1B will be be another huge plus.
I would be extremely surprised if Tatis is as good as he was in 2021 this season. I fully expect to see a 20-30 point drop in OPS+. So an .890-.900 OPS and 136-146 OPS+ with just 30 HR is probably what we will see from him in 2023. That is a HUGE dropoff.
Hader had a 0.00 ERA in his first 19 appearances of 2022 until his wife started having complications in their first pregnancy in early June. Then after a bad month he was traded from the only team he had played for in the majors. His baseball family.
After an up and down August with the Padres that included a 6 run implosion in 1/3 of an inning against the Royals, he was given 5 days off and came back to record 10 straight appearances without giving up a run to end the regular season. He only gave up 4 hits while striking out 13 in those 10 appearances. Then we all saw what he did in the playoffs. 5 games. 1 hit. 2 baserunners. 10 strike outs. No runs.
Yeah Hader ending his season the way did was huge looking forward to 2023. I often find myself replaying the video of him striking out Mookie, Trea & Freddie to end the Dodgers season.
Don’t forget Hader still has a historical 8 1/2 consecutive innings pitched in post season without allowing jack… so when Pads make postseason that streak continues
@hallofamer No team in MLB has had a higher payroll over the last decade than your Dodgers, and there’s pressure to win when you have an elite payroll. LA bought Bauer and Freddie, traded for Mookie and Trey Turner and Scherzer. The Pads bought Manny a while ago, and Bogaerts, and traded for Soto and Yu. Very similar big $ exchanges, these two teams. But I wouldn’t call it win or die. Teams that compete on every level usually come out winners at the box office and Petco is already nearly sold out entire 2023. The Pads have already won. And, 14 of last 15 WS have been won by teams in top 7 payroll, so it’s a good bet the Padres and Dodgers will be contenders. Enjoy!
.
Poop can hit the fan quick but eh we only live once
Dumpster diving
Do you watch baseball? This is not dumpster diving
Kluber 2.0
Kluber pitched 164 innings for the Rays last year with a 4.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP, and won 10 games. I don’t think the Padres would be disappointed with that kind of production from Wacha.
Gore+Manea+ Clevinger combined for 19 W 20 L of 4.52 ERA ball
Martinez/Wacha and Lugo (+others) have a very low bar to clear ..
A top 50 FA is not really dumpster diving. Even if it was, do teams typically shop at the top of the market for a #5/#6 starter? Are they signing Scherzer to make 20 starts at the back of the rotation?
Padres went out and got a top 50 FA to hold up the back of the rotation. No matter how you look at it, that is a sign of how good that rotation is.
Nice. This should help them top the Dodgers and win the World Series. Padres dynasty!
Realistically, all the Padres need out of Wacha is 20-25 starts of under 4.50 ERA ball with that offense. Anything more is a bonus.
Good signing by AJ.
Hate to be a storm cloud here, but the Padres are still one injury away from having an ok rotation. That said I’m rooting for Teheran to be comeback player of the year!
I think their rotation is just okay even without an injury. That being said, with all the potential offensive firepower, it may need to be just okay for the regular season. As far as the postseason? That’s a whole other discussion.
Except the rotation shrinks in the post season. So they should be fine.
If we’ve learned anything it’s that the Padres roster is fluid and ever-changing. Trade deadline they add another #2 level SP for playoffs.
@StandUpDouble
Whether they are “just okay” or one of the top MLB rotations, what the Padres and Melvin need most is ~~~
Consistency.
Obviously, we’re not talking about 7.0 ERA type consistency, but it doesn’t have to be sub 3.0 ERA either. What they really can’t afford is say, a 45 day or 60 day slump when 2 or 3 of their TOR starters are down, and they’re backfilling with lost-from-the-start “bullpen” games, even though the Padres should have an outstanding bullpen.
Any rotation in the MLB that remains healthy has a good chance at a better than average season. I say that because most MLB rosters field MLB starters, I mean, the real deal, not 5 AAA pitchers “hoping for a chance””.
Health and consistency are the key, and Preller just gave the Padres a chance at avoiding a mid-season slump due to injuries or poor performance. Once they make it to the playoffs, it mostly depends on who survived the season to play October baseball.
If they gave him more than 1 year 9 mil they’re batshit crazy.
1 @ $7M. Not crazy.
Yup, reasonable gamble.
Per Ken Rosenthal it “could earn him more than $24m over 4 years” but includes both player and team opt outs. Odd that no one credible has reported the exact terms 12 hours later.
Yep, and I think either Rosenthal or someone else (Acee?) said that the structure may look a lot like Martinez option laden deal. That makes it a bit easier to tolerate a 4 year deal, with a lower AAV and heavy incentives & options/opt outs.
This is yet another smart move by A.J. Preller to add some depth to the starting rotation and also takes some of the pressure off of Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. If the Padres are indeed done retooling the roster for this season, they are already looking a bit better than last season. Injuries are — of course — the great unknown.
The games still need to be played and its a long season, but an unprecedented optimism is sweeping through San Diego and creating an unprecedented level of excitement.
The rich get richer and the Red Sox, well, they will continue to suck.
While the Red Sox projected starting 5 had a 5.12 ERA last season and only made 74 starts combined in the majors, they were apparently not even in discussions with Wacha.
Their rotation now consists of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Kluber, and Whitlock with Bello and Mata likely having to pick up a large number of starts.
Sale made 2 starts in 2022 and just 6 over the past 2 seasons. The oft-injured Paxton has made just 6 starts since the end of the 2019 season and missed all of 2022. How they can count on those two to toe the mound at the front of that rotation every 5th game is beyond me. Whitlock is talented but has only made 9 starts in his 2 seasons in the majors. Best case scenario for him is about 20 starts. Beyond that is Kluber, who is going into his age 37 season but is still an effective back of the rotation starter, and Pivetta, who toed the rubber 33 times last season but was largely ineffective in putting up a 4.56 ERA and 4.42 FIP.
Sorry Red Sox fans, it’s going to be a rough year… again.
On the other hand, the Padres just picked up Wacha to fill the #5 or #6 slot in their rotation.
Two organizations spending huge amounts of money but heading in different directions.
Red Sox fans are already about ready to commit hari kari after last season. No reason to rub it in.
1-We lost half of our rotation last year and still only finished 11 games worse than the Padres.
2-I know that Wacha spent a season with the RS, but to come onto what is essentially a Padre thread, and post a RS rant is a bit odd, imo.
Wacha is not a solid #4 starter! He’s a fringe #5.
Man, the Padres’ rotation isn’t as good as any of the other major contenders in the NL if Wacha is their #4 starter. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Braves, Mets, and Phillies all have better starters at #4 and #5.
Dodgers rotation:
Urias – exceptional ERA. His FIP, xFIP, Siera, and other peripherals point to a regression, but I still think he is the Ace of the Dodger’s staff
Kershaw – great for 20 starts and 120 IP. HOF in 2028 or 2029?
Gonsolin – Has never pitched a full season without injury. Ended regular season on IL with dreaded forearm strain. More chance of TJ surgery than 30 starts.
May – see Gonsolin but even more injury prone. 80-100 IP if he can stay healthy.
Syndergaard – Not the Thor of old, but a solid back of the rotation starter.
Compare that to:
Darvish – Workhorse, took the ball 30 times in 2023 which is the most possible in 6-man rotation. He has 8th most IP over past 3 seasons and a 3.10 ERA/3.31 FIP last season. His peripherals point to more of the same.
Musgrove – 30 starts (max in 6-man rotation), 180 IP, 2.93 ERA.
Snell – 2nd best pitcher in baseball after the break with a 2.19 ERA and 2.23 FIP. Overall a 3.38 ERA with a 2.80 FIP and 3.21 xFIP that both point to improvement in 2023.
Martinez – Acted as swingman in 2022 out of necessity but proved he could handle a starter’s IP in Japan.
Wacha – 3.32 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and 3.99 xFIP that point to some regression in 2023. Perfect guy to take 20-24 starts at the back of the rotation.
Lugo – Talented pitcher with 5 pitch mix. 3.60 ERA with peripherals that point to more of the same in 2023. Hasn’t started since 2020 and will fill the 6th starter/swingman position that Martinez filled last season. 10-12 starts in 2023 with another 30 appearances as a reliever or as part of bullpen starts (opener or piggyback).
Now tell us which is better.
LA. LA’s ERA last year was 2.75. SD was at 3.80. Wacha is about equal to Clevinger. LA’s rotation is a bit thin, but higher quality.
The dodgers are an injury away from relying on unproven AAA players. What are you even saying…
Joe, LA doesn’t have the same rotation as last season. The starting pitchers that are no longer on the team, including the starter with the most IP, had a 2.64 ERA in 52 starts for the Dodgers last season.
They are being replaced by Syndergaard, May, and a few rookies.
Pretty good bet that the Dodgers staff is not as good as last year.
The dodgers are an injury away from relying on unproven AAA players.
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Yeah, I probably should’ve added “LA’s rotation is a bit thin”.
Oh, wait, I did,
Pretty good bet that the Dodgers staff is not as good as last year.
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Of course not, but that’s why I added the respective ERAs. The difference between LAD and SDP’s ERAs is about the same as the difference between SDP & KC. In other words, huge.
Replacing Clevinger with Wacha is sideways, so it is basically the same as their 2022 rotation. LA will definitely regress,but I see no way that they regress from #1 to #10.
The difference between LAST YEAR’S LA rotation and Padres rotation is huge.
This offseason the Padres got rid of the bottom of their rotation that had a 4.62 ERA in 63 starts while the Dodgers lost pitchers that combined for a 2.64 ERA in 52 starts.
The Dodgers are replacing those starts with Syndergaard and his 3.94 ERA and a whole bunch of injury prone starters and rookie question marks.
Replacing Clevinger with Martinez is a huge improvement. 3.47 ERA vs 4.33 ERA. They had about the same amount of innings last season.
Replacing Manaea with Wacha is a huge improvement. 3.32 ERA vs 4.99 ERA. Even if Wacha’s 2023 performance is closer to what his 4.14 FIP and 3.99 xFIP indicate his pitching was last season, he is still significantly better than Manaea was.
Then you add Lugo and Morejon to that mix as the #6.
Bottom line is the Padres got significantly better while the Dodgers got significantly worse.
Joe, that was last season.
The Dodgers lost starters from the top of their rotation. Buehler to injury. Anderson to FA. They also lost two other pitchers that had a combined 3.08 ERA in 24 starts in Heaney (3.06 in 14 starts) and White (3.12 ERA in 10 starts). Combined those 4 starters made 64 starts for the Dodgers last season and a had 3.01 ERA in those starts.
The Padres lost the bottom of their rotation. Manaea, Clevinger, and Gore combined for 63 starts and a 4.63 ERA in those starts.
The Dodgers are not as good as they were in 2022. The Padres improved.
Not sure where 3.32 is equal to 4.25, but if you say so.
Pads, you forgot that the Dodgers lost Buehler to TJ surgery.
Replacing Clevinger with Martinez is a huge improvement. 3.47 ERA vs 4.33 ERA. They had about the same amount of innings last season.
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But more importantly, imo, who had a better ERA as a starter? The issue that you might have with Martinez is that his first time through had a .758 OPS, the 2nd time thru was an OPS of .805, and the 3rd time thru was a .979. In fact, his only strength was the 1st time thru as an RP, with an OPS of .579. Clevinger was quite a bit better as a starter last year.
The Dodgers lost starters from the top of their rotation.
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Like I said, the LAD will regress. I just don’t see them regressing from their 2022 Urias, Gonsolin, and Kershaw are still there.
So they are replacing Anderson, Heaney & Buehler with Sundergaard & May.
Back of the envelope calculation is that they are replacing 300 innings and 100 ERs with 300 innings & 327 ERs, assuming 150 IPs each and ERAs of 3.67 & 3.94. That raises the LAD rotation ERA to 3.03 from 2.75.
Even if you were to adjust some of the numbers negatively, they would still be 0..77 better than SDP’s 3.80 in 2022. You’ll need a lot more to make those two numbers even.
FWIW, I am a RS, and I am just calculating the numbers I see in BR & FG.
Joe, Gonsolin and Kershaw will not go 150 innings. Kershaw is good for 120 or so. 120 great innings, but just 120. Gonsolin has never thrown that many innings and ended the regular season on the IL with a forearm strain. He is likely headed to TJ surgery. I doubt he gets more than a dozen starts if he even makes it out of spring training healthy.
The Padres got more than 0.77 ERA better than they were in 2022. So what your calculations are telling you is that on paper the Padre rotation is both better and less of an injury risk.
Translating my comment into English:
1-The LA rotation will regress, but it will take a lot of negative regression in order for SD to make up the 2022 difference.
2-Replacing Anderson, Buehler & Heaney with Syndergaard & May will add 27 ERs to the LA ERA. You’d have to add a heck of a lot more in order to make the two rotations equal.
Put another way, the SDP allowed 114 more ERs than LA in 2022, in 31 more IPs.
At 100+ innings, it doesn’t matter one bit if it was as a starter or a reliever. Martinez was a much better pitcher. Period.
When you are comparing two players give BOTH of their stats in a situation. Clevinger had a 1.032 OPS against the 3rd time through the lineup. His ERA after the 4th inning was 7.02
You conveniently left out the fact that the 3rd time through the lineup Martinez had a .238 BAA. His problem the 3rd time through the lineup was not them hitting him better overall for the 10 starts and 4 piggybacks, it was 4 solo HR in 2 games in early April against the Braves and Dodgers. In the other 8 starts he had a .622 OPS the 3rd time through.
During May-June he had 4 piggyback outings where he came in and pitched 3-4 innings behind an opener. He pitched those on his regular starters schedule. You should be counting those as starts, too. He had a 1.84 ERA in those games.
Between his 10 starts and those piggyback games he pitched 14 games on a starters schedule and put up a 3.36 ERA.
Martinez was better as a starter and overall than Clevinger.
Joe, you keep missing the point.
The pitchers the Dodgers no longer have in 2023 were very good in 2022. Replacing 64 starts of 3.01 ERA in 2022 with 31 starts of 4.28 ERA in 2022 is a huge downgrade.
When Gonsolin goes down for the TJ surgery that is inevitable, that downgrade will be even further exacerbated.
The pitchers the Padres no longer have in 2023 were bad, Replacing starters that had a 4.63 ERA over 63 starts in 2022 with guys that had a 3.33 ERA over 37 starts/piggybaccks in 2022 is a huge upward swing. That doesn’t include the rest of Martinez’s appearances or Lugo and Morejon who are expected to act as a piggyback tandem much like Martinez and Gore did for those 2 months in 2022.
Trying to say that Syndergaard and May will throw as many innings as Anderson, Heaney, Buehler, and White is laughable. Syndergaard and May combined for less IP than Anderson alone threw last season. Your ER example doesn’t hold water because of that.
It will be Syndergaard, May, and 34 more starts made by who knows who at this point that will be replacing Anderson, Heaney, Buehler, and White. A whole heck of a lot more ER will be added in those 34 starts and 182 innings. If those starts from rookies and other minor league players are at 4.00 ERA, a VERY optimistic assumption, then that is 81 more ER on TOP of the 27 ER you posited. A total of 108 more ER.
The Dodgers will need to get a minimum of 810 innings out of their starters and that is at just 5 innings per start. The 5 guys they have in their rotation as of today threw just 595 innings. That is a minimum of 43 starts of 5 innings per start that some rookie or minor leaguers will have to make for the Dodgers in 2023. Since at least 2 of the Dodgers starters cannot be expected to match their 2022 totals probably closer to 60 starts that those rookies and. minor leaguers will be filling.
Your hypothesis simply doesn’t hold up to deeper scrutiny.
LA has more upside in that rotation, maybe more injury concerns though, but SD is hoping Martinez and Lugo suddenly become successful SPs. There’s also wildcard of LA’s ace returning for playoffs.
So I’ll give SP to LA for now. I do think Pads have a slightly better bullpen though, and a better lineup in the order 1-6..
Buehler had TJ in August. He is gone for the entire 2023 season.
I know. It was a comforting bone I tossed to the blues, they seem a little stressed in these comments
I can tell which side of the fence you sit on, because the rose-tinted glasses have you looking optimistically when it suits you, and pessimistically when it suits you.
Darvish – very good pitcher. Probably want better than a 3.10 ERA for an ace, but it’s right there or there abouts.
Musgrove – you don’t mention his 2.93 ERA, career best, had an underlying FIP of 3.59, which is closer to his career average. He’s a high 3 ERA pitcher across his career.
Snell – very good second half last year. Can be great in stretches. Still had an ERA over four, for 2 of the 3 seasons prior. Can be plagued by walk issues. Pitched a max of 120 innings since his career high in 2018.
Martinez – he’s the #4 apparently, only started 10 games last year, has topped out at 140 IP in the Majors, outperformed his FIP last year by a full run, and had a career high LOB%.
Wacha – ERA’s of 6.62 and 5.05 for the two seasons prior to last. Last year, his K/9 rate dropped to 7.35, from 8.74 the year prior, and 9.79 before that. A drop of 2 and a half K’s per 9 over 3 seasons, while last year running a career high LOB% of over 80. Everything points to regression beyond what you wanted to mention.
Lugo – career high of 101 IP, back in 2018. Has never been able to establish himself as a starter, but is apparently going to fill that role in a 6-man rotation you keep mentioning.
If you’re going to try and present an argument that’s quite one-eyed, someone is going to present a view to balance it out.
Musgrove has a 3.13 ERA the last 3 seasons.
Urias had a 3.71 FIP. Doesn’t that mean Musgrove was better than him last season.
I would take Musgrove over any pitcher on the Dodgers other than Urias. He takes the ball every start. He goes deep in games. He has a 3.06 ERA for San Diego. He is a leader on the team. Think you can convince him to move back east? He would look great in white and orange.
Darvish
3.10 ERA was top 20 last season. That is certainly a #1 starter.
3.34 ERA was 13th over the last 3 seasons. That is also certainly a #1
3.31 FIP was 17th last season. #1 starter
3.35 FIP was 11th over the last 3 season. #1 starter
bWAR and fWAR – 11th last season. #1 starter
fWAR – 8th over the last 3 seasons. #1 starter
bWAR – 7th over the last 3 seasons
As a Padre Musgrove has a 3.06 ERA, 180+ IP each season, and a 125 ERA+. He is top 20 in ERA, FIP, IP, WAR (both), and ERA+ in that time frame. That is a #1 starter. He came alive once he came back home to SD.
Personally I dislike Snell. He is streaky and a headcase. He had a good 2022 with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.80 FIP. You have to admit his 2nd half last season was magical. If he could ever do that for a full season and stay healthy enough to throw 160 innings he would be a superstar. As it is he is just good. I would still prefer him to Gonsolin who has made 17 fewer starts over the past 3 seasons and whom I don’t believe will make it through the 2023 season without needing Tommy John or internal brace surgery.
Martinez pitched seasons of 161.2 and 149.2 innings in Japan. He can handle the IP. The Padres used him as a swingman because they had both Manaea and Clevinger to try to fit into the rotation. Martinez made 23 multi inning appearances including 10 starts and threw 106 innings. He can easily go 150 innings for the Padres. His 3.47 ERA was 55th of all pitchers with 100 IP or more. Very good for a #4 starter.
I am not sure Lugo would have been able to handle the 20 starts that are needed from a 5th starter, but am quite sure he can handle the 10-12 that are needed from a 6th starter. He will probably be used in opener/piggyback situations with Morejon as often as not.
Wacha is the wildcard. Which Wacha will the Padres get. If its one that makes 20-24 starts and puts up an ERA that matches his 4.14 FIP from 2022, then the Padres will have one of the better #5 starters in baseball.
IMHO, the Dodgers top 5 have the edge in quality when healthy, but they cannot stay healthy to throw enough innings for the starting rotation as a whole to be better than the 6 that will be part of the Padres rotation.
we Americans spend far too much time trying to determine fence sides
Baseball is Life, not necessarily. FIP is a measurement of what the pitcher is responsible for, but it is a better predictive stat than a measure of past performance.
It along with other peripherals point to regression for Urias. I really hope that is not the case because he is a fun pitcher to watch work and is entering his walk year.
You an Orioles fan?
Cam, you failed at your objective.
Shhh.
Like I said, May and Syndergaard are both better than Wacha. I’m not comparing their entire rotations here, just their #4 & #5 starters.
If you think Matrtinez and/or Lugo are better than Wacha, then that’s the article’s fault for calling Wacha their #4 starter in the first place.
Surprised Preller didn’t go harder after Syndergaard this offseason. IIRC at the 2019 trade deadline he offered the Mets Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia and any two pitching prospects not named Gore or Patiño for him but BVW wanted Gore and refused to budge on that one so Syndergaard ultimately stayed put.
May threw 30 innings last year and had a 4.50 ERA. You have to be on the mound to be better. In his 4 seasons in the majors he has 25 starts. Wacha had 23 in each of the last 2 seasons. When May was pitching last season he was not good at all.
Last season Wacha’s results were better than Syndergaard’s. They were in 2021 and 2020 as well. Maybe Syndergaard recovers and pitches well this season. Maybe what you have seen recently is what you get.
Now you may have some tie in with a psychic that is giving you the low down on the future, but past results are not supporting your hypothesis.
No one on the Padres has said that Wacha is slotted in as a #4 starter. In fact, they have said nothing at all because he has not been signed yet. Melvin said that Martinez will not be facing any innings limits in 2023. Two mistakes the article made. Wacha’s injury issues the last few seasons will limit him to the #5 slot where HIS innings can be watched closely.
Wacha technically had the better results last year ONLY, but the other two are still overall better pitchers assuming all three are currently healthy.
Not technically. In fact.
Wacha – 3.32 ERA last season in 23 starts.
Syndergaard – 3.94 ERA in 24 starts
May – 4.50 ERA in 6 starts.
Syndergaard and May pitched a combined 25 innings in 2021. Whatever their ERA was is immaterial because of the small sample size.
Yes, technically a fact, but LAST YEAR ONLY, and we’re assuming all three are healthy now.
Last year was Wacha’s only decent year in several years, so it’s very likely to have been a fluke, He’s probably going to wind up with an ERA well over 4.00 if not 5.00 going forward.
Meanwhile, May is a very good pitcher when he’s healthy. and while Thor isn’t what he used to be, he’s still a better pitcher than Wacha when healthy when comparing them over the last few years (and not just 2022).
Ok Psychicboy. Whatever. You know better than everyone else what Wacha and the others mentioned will do next season because you have an in with Nostradamus.
Wacha had a 4.18 ERA the last two seasons. MLB average was 4.19. Its not just one season.
May has never been healthy. That is his problem. TJ was not his only reason for hitting the IL. He doesn’t have a full season worth of innings in 4 years in MLB. When he did make 6 starts post TJ he was bad. 4.50 ERA.
You cannot assume that anyone other than Wacha and Syndergard is healthy. They made 23 and 24 starts last season respectively. Over the past 2 seasons 46 and 26 starts respectively.
May made 6 starts last season and has an innings limit this season. He has never thrown more than 56 innings in the majors and that was in 2020. Gonsolin ended the regular season on the IL with a forearm strain, an injury that you count the number of guys that had that prognosis and did not get TJ surgery on the fingers of one hand. He did make one appearance in the postseason and got crushed with lower velocity and control than bfore the injury. He has not pitched from a mound in ST yet.
A better team than last season, on paper. So like it has been mentioned in previous comments, let’s see how it plays out on the field. Til then, let’s keep hoping they don’t trade Kim…
Wacha’s breaking stuff will play nicely with defense he now has behind him in San Diego
Wacha has never been the same since Matheny fried his arm. Another player in this article Julio Teherani thought was headed for great things like Wacha. It just never happened.
His career has been all over the place so you never know what you’re going to get but he’s had an above average career overall.
That 99 career ERA+ (91 since 2019) doesn’t shout “above average.”
No. It shouts average. Having an average starter as your #5 starter is pretty kick @$$. For the Padres sake he needs to continue to be average.
He was fantastic last year but an FIP above 4 every year for the past 5 years doesn’t strike me as anything sensational either.
Wacha’s four year FIP since 2019 is 4.78. He was extremely lucky on balls in play in 2022. He’s at best a 5th starter. At best.
Still, it’s a move you make when you’re looking to steal a marginal win and squeak by the Dodgers to win the division. It’ll be interesting.
Looks like it’s a 4 year deal with all kinds of crazy incentives, opt outs, and buy outs.
Holy $#/+! The old fart from Florida beat Rosenthal to the punch in reporting Wacha’s deal.
I take it you are the old fart?
No he’s you pretending to be someone else.
So Cheap!!!
And worth every penny.
This deal will be regrettable for the Pads in no time flat
San Diego didn’t sign Cueto, but this is a good one. Wacha isn’t a big boy starter but with a really good infield defense, I don’t think he’s going to have trouble inducing weak contact and a good groundball percentage. Good job San Diego!
Do you think in arb hearings some agents say with their chest “my client is a big boy starter!” and then proceed to point out all the ways in which their client is, in fact, a “big boy”?
I’m hoping they do. Because I’d pay to hear arbitration arguments. In fact, broadcast arb hearings and have the fans vote (fans under 60, because it seems like fans over 60 just throat owners)
Meh.
Just curious, but are there are signings of #5 starters that aren’t meh?
So he did come down on his price. It’s not a bad risk for SD. It’s a bargain if he keeps going like last year.
Why not a 10-year deal? Huh Preller?
$6M a season over that many years is really weird to see nowadays.
There are opt outs for both sides and that $6 million per season is dependent on him hitting incentives.
26M guaranteed over 4 years, plus incentives.
I think Wacha will be fine as long as he stays in the rotation (i.e. healthy). I would feel better about Padres starting rotation if they could keep Lugo and Martinez in the bullpen. Reminds me of the situation with the Red Sox wanting to put Houck and Whitlock in the rotation. That’s just asking for problems. Keep guys in the roles they have excelled at in the past: Lugo, Martinez, Whitlock, Houck are solid bullpen pieces, keep them there or risk injury and under performance.
Maybe he likes to surf?
For Wacha, it used to be the Cardinal way.
Now it’s just the Wacha way . . . René.
Much lower of an AAV than I thought
Yeah but it would have been smarter in my opinion to pay him 2 years 16million. All these long term deals are going to add up. Even though it’s a tiny aav I’m afraid with all the player there doing with will affect the ability to sign good players in the future. Having all these different people to pay and keep on the roster adds up in the end.
The Padres are trying to stay under the next tier of the CBT and the lower AAV allows them to do that.
I understand what they are trying to do but my question is this, is it worth keeping guys on your roster that might not perform? Is tying up roster spots and future pay worth the short term goal of tax evasion? I’m not pretending to know the answer to this and it might be the right move. I just have some questions about it . I guess time will tell
The difference between $16M/2 and $26M/4 is only $10M/2. I don’t find that an egregious option. OTOH, they are only saving $1M on the 2023 AAV, so I am not sure that moves the needle very much.
They are right at the next threshold right now, and I assume the Padres will be adding at the trade deadline.
“Then the Padres will have to decide whether or not to pick up two options for 2024 and 2025, each valued at $16MM…”
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…which they won’t. These type of deals are designed to circumvent the luxury tax thresholds lowering the AAV. I’m surprised MLB/Manfred hasn’t tried to shut them down, although the MLBPA would rightfully object.
I agree, this deal was clearly designed to lower the AAV of the deal but the contract isn’t so egregious that MLB would step in however I wouldn’t be surprised if Manfred doesn’t issue a warning to the Padres.
A warning for what exactly? In what way did they break the rules?
The club options don’t impact the AAV for luxury tax purposes. Only the player options are guaranteed money, so his AAV is based off the 3 year player option that he has. For luxury tax purposes this is basically a 4/26 deal. If Wacha’s performance tanks or he gets hurt, he may actually exercise that because it’s basically a safety net for him.
In other words it really doesn’t matter if SD has club options for 2024 and 2025 for purposes of the luxury tax threshold. I do agree it’s highly unlikely they pick the team option up, but there’s a possibility where Wacha has a great season and they do want him for another 2/32.
Very strange deal
They’ll regret that deal.
Pretty wild deal. If everything goes *exactly* Wacha’s way, he can max out at 3/41.5M
Pretty wild deal. If everything goes exactly Wacha’s way, he can max out at 3/41.5M