Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Be Ready For Start Of Season
Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. told reporters Wednesday that a recent MRI on his ailing right arm revealed a “small muscle strain” and that being ready for opening day is “out of the question” (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). McCullers added that there’s no structural damage in his arm and that his ulnar collateral ligament is undamaged. He’ll still be shut down for multiple weeks, which makes a season-opening stint on the injured list seem likely.
It’s another unfortunate health setback for the 29-year-old McCullers, who was limited to eight starts during the regular season, plus another three in the postseason. That lengthy absence was due to a forearm strain dating back to the 2021 American League Division Series. The 2022 season marked the second time in four years that McCullers missed substantial time due to an arm injury; he missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in Nov. 2018.
Recent health woes notwithstanding, McCullers is one of the Astros’ most talented starters, evidenced by four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons with consistently above-average strikeout rates and premium ground-ball rates. Over his past 393 1/3 regular-season innings, McCullers touts a 3.39 ERA, a 26.5% strikeout rate and a huge 55.6% grounder rate. The right-hander’s 10.3% walk rate in that time could stand to be improved upon, but his strikeout and ground-ball rates have helped mitigate what has at times been sub-par command.
The Astros lost Justin Verlander to free agency this winter and opted not to add another starter, due in large part to the organization’s considerable pitching depth. McCullers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy form a strong quintet upon which to lean, and Houston has one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Hunter Brown, ready for a big league audition.
If McCullers indeed opens the season on the injured list, his spot in the rotation would likely be filled by Brown. The 24-year-old made a brief MLB debut in 2022, pitching 20 1/3 innings with a sterling 0.89 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 68% grounder rate. That came on top of 106 innings of 2.55 ERA ball in Triple-A — his second successful run at that level.
There’s no indication just yet as to when McCullers might be sufficiently ramped up to join the big league club. His shutdown will likely last into mid-March, and the Astros will presumably have a clearer timeline once he eventually resumes throwing. For now, Brown looks poised to step into the big league rotation, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and minor league righties Shawn Dubin, J.P. France and former top prospect Forrest Whitley as the Astros’ top depth options in the event of further injury.
McCullers is entering the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract extension and is owed $66.25MM over the next four seasons, beginning with a $15.25MM salary in 2023.
Brewers, Luke Voit Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Voit, a client of Excel Sports, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.
For two-plus seasons, Voit was an absolute powerhouse in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup, batting a combined .279/.372/.543 with 57 home runs, 31 doubles and an 11.5% walk rate (albeit against a more troublesome 26.3% strikeout rate). That production came over the life of 892 plate appearances and included an MLB-best 22 home runs during the shortened 2020 campaign.
The past two years, however, have been nightmarish for the slugger — in no small part due to health troubles. Voit began the 2021 campaign on the injured last after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee during spring training. That injury required surgery and kept him out of action into mid-May, but his return proved short lived. Just two weeks after returning to the field, Voit sustained a Grade 2 oblique strain.
While even Grade 1 oblique strains can often lead to month-long absences, Voit was still back on the field less than one month later. This return from the IL, in similar fashion, was brief in nature. Three weeks after being activated, Voit was back on the shelf due to inflammation and discomfort in his surgically repaired left knee. The Yankees shopped and nearly traded Voit at the 2021 trade deadline, but he was back on the active roster from Aug. 8 until Sept. 30 — when pain in that left knee again sent him to the injured list, formally ending his season. He closed out that year with a career-worst .226/.308/.402 batting line.
The Yankees traded Voit to the Padres just before Opening Day 2022, receiving righty Justin Lange in the swap. Voit hit .225/.317/.416 in 344 plate appearances with the Padres before being traded to the Nationals in the Juan Soto blockbuster. With Washington, Voit’s production took a step back, evidenced by a .228/.295/.381 slash in his two months down the stretch. Washington non-tendered him following the season, preferring not to offer him a raise on last year’s $5.45MM salary.
With the Brewers, Voit will look to get back on track in a more hitter-friendly setting than he played in during the 2022 season — if, of course, he makes the club. The Brewers already have Rowdy Tellez at first base, and outfielder Jesse Winker could be in line for DH reps, depending on how the rest of the outfield mix plays out. Christian Yelich is entrenched in left field (and in search of his own rebound), while center field and right field currently look as though they’ll be manned by Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor.
On the surface, Voit’s right-handed bat looks like a natural pairing for either Tellez or Winker in a platoon capacity, but that’s not necessarily the case. In his career, Voit’s production against left-handed opponents (.236/.329/.439) is inferior to his production against righties (.262/.347/.491). He’d still be an upgrade over either Tellez or Winker against southpaws, but using him primarily against lefties wouldn’t necessarily maximize his skill set.
For Voit to find success in Milwaukee, he’ll first and foremost need to pare back a strikeout rate that has spiraled in the wrong direction since that injury-ruined 2021 season. Over the past two seasons, Voit has fanned in 31.3% of his plate appearances — a far cry from the 26.3% clip at which he punched out during his Yankees peak and an even farther cry from his career-best 23.1% during that standout 2020 campaign. Voit still makes hard contact at a very strong clip (44.6% over the past two seasons, per Statcast) and barrels the ball at an elite rate (15%) — but that ability for loud contact has been undercut by his uptick in whiffing altogether.
If Voit makes the club and is able to return to form, he’d be a multi-year option for the Brewers, as he’s just shy of five years of Major League service time. As such, he’d be controllable one more year via arbitration. That’s putting the cart before the horse, but it’s a nice potential longer-term benefit if he can engineer a rebound with the Brew Crew.
Angels Notes: Ohtani, Rendon, Barria
Agent Nez Balelo of CAA, who represents Shohei Ohtani, told reporters this week that while an extension is “always” something to which they’ve been open, Ohtani has also “earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency” (link via ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) As one would expect, Balelo spoke rather vaguely with regard to his star client’s future, stating that Ohtani is taking things “day by day” and downplaying the idea that the Angels’ lack of postseason berths during his time with the team would push the two-way sensation to a new team. “He’s so competitive, like all great players are, so of course they want to experience postseason, of course they’d love to be in the World Series,” said Balelo. “But is that the deciding factor? I don’t know. We’ll just have to wait and see.”
At 28 years old, Ohtani has become one of the game’s brightest stars. He secured an All-Star berth in each of the past two seasons, winning American League MVP honors in 2021 and finishing runner-up in 2022 — while also grabbing a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s batted .265/.364/.554 with 80 homers and 37 steals in 1305 plate appearances, while at the same time pitching 296 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with a 31.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. There’s been plenty of talk about the bidding war he could spark heading into his age-29 season, with speculation that Ohtani could sign the largest contract ever — perhaps even pushing $500MM in total value.
More on the Halos…
- Anthony Rendon is in Angels camp and feeling optimistic about the 2023 season despite requiring a second surgery in as many years last summer, writes Sarah Valenzuela of the Los Angeles Times. Rendon noted that returning even for a couple games late in the 2022 season brought him some peace of mind heading into the winter, and while his surgically repaired wrist wasn’t 100% throughout the winter, it’s feeling stronger now. He acknowledged that the Angels will likely be cautious with his workload and offered high praise for new teammate Gio Urshela — the trade acquisition who’ll play no small part in helping to spell Rendon when needed. Halos skipper Phil Nevin pointed out that Rendon already has one Comeback Player of the Year Award under his belt and expressed confidence that the former All-Star can return to form. Rendon, who signed a seven-year, $245MM deal with Anaheim following the 2019 season, has played in just 157 games since putting pen to paper. Fifty-two of those games came in the shortened 2020 season, when he turned in an outstanding .286/.418/.497 slash with solid defense at the hot corner. Since then, he’s played in just 105 of 324 possible games.
- Right-hander Jaime Barria is in the mix for the sixth spot in the Angels’ rotation, writes Sam Blum of The Athletic. He’ll join a group including Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth, Tucker Davidson and Chris Rodriguez in vying for that spot. As Blum outlines, that sixth-starter role could perhaps be best occupied by someone with Barria’s swingman experience, given that off-days will necessitate the sixth spot being skipped from time to time. Barria, who’s out of minor league options, figures to make the club one way or another this year, particularly given last season’s strong showing in a long relief role. In 79 1/3 frames, the 26-year-old posted a 2.61 ERA with a well below-average 17.1% strikeout rate but a strong 6% walk rate and a 40.9% grounder rate. Barria has never missed many bats but has typically displayed strong command en route to a career 4.09 ERA in 380 1/3 innings split fairly evenly as a starter (4.03 ERA, 56 appearances) and and a reliever (4.25 ERA, 44 appearances). He and the Angels avoided arbitration with a one-year, $1.05MM deal earlier this winter.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Brewers, Tyler Naquin Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have agreed to a minor league pact with free-agent outfielder Tyler Naquin, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The Excel Sports client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee. It’s the second non-roster deal with a notable veteran for the Brewers today, as they also signed Luke Voit to a similar pact earlier this morning.
Like Voit, Naquin will give the Brewers some potential power to add to the lineup. He’s clubbed 30 homers and turned in a solid .201 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) over the past two seasons between the Reds and the Mets. In that time, Naquin slashed .252/.311/.454, drawing walks at a 6.9% clip against a 25.4% strikeout rate. He’s primarily played in the outfield corners over the past two seasons and is better suited for corner work, according to most defensive metrics, though he certainly has experience in center and can handle the position in a pinch.
Naquin, 31, has spent parts of seven seasons in the Majors, mostly coming with Cleveland, who selected him with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2012 draft. He’s been deployed largely as a platoon player in recent seasons and owns a career .274/.326/.468 batting line against right-handers (as opposed to a .210/.272/.339 output against lefties).
As things stand, the outfield situation in Milwaukee is a bit in flux. Christian Yelich is locked into left field, but the options in center and left have limited track records. Garrett Mitchell turned heads with a .311/.373/.459 batting line through 68 plate appearances in his MLB debut last season, but he needed a sky-high .548 BABIP to get there and also fanned in 41.2% of his plate appearances; without pronounced improvement in his strikeout rate, regression is inevitable. That said, Mitchell was a first-round pick in 2020 and posted quality minor league numbers in 2022, so it’s certainly feasible that he could establish himself.
Meanwhile, 29-year-old Tyrone Taylor could be poised for a career-high workload. He’s coming off a rather pedestrian .233/.286/.442 batting line, but he grades out as an above-average defender who’s capable of playing all three outfield spots. There’s also Jesse Winker, acquired from the Mariners earlier in the winter, though he’ll be in search of a rebound at the plate and could also see ample time at designated hitter.
Further down the depth chart, Milwaukee has top prospects like Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick in the upper minors. Both reached Triple-A in 2022 and thrived there, albeit in sample sizes of fewer than 250 plate appearances apiece. Milwaukee also inked switch-hitting Blake Perkins to a Major League deal earlier in the winter despite the fact that he’s never played a big league game. He slashed a combined .246/.357/.456 between the Yankees’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2022.
With a big spring showing, Naquin could put himself in the running for at-bats in right field, where the right-handed hitting Taylor would make for a natural platoon partner. He could also win a bench spot on a heavily right-handed-hitting club, where the current favorites for reserve roles include Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura and perhaps either Luis Urias or Brian Anderson (depending on which lands at third base more regularly — a situation that is dependent itself on how quickly prospect Brice Turang gets a look at second base).
Cubs Sign Michael Fulmer
Feb. 20: The Cubs have formally announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, right-hander Codi Heuer was placed on the 60-day injured list. Heuer is recovering from Tommy John surgery
Feb. 15: Fulmer and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract tweets Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
Feb. 10: The Cubs and free-agent righty Michael Fulmer are in agreement on a contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical. Fulmer is represented by BBI Sports Group.
In Fulmer, the Cubs are landing one of the few remaining quality relievers on the market. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year broke into the Majors as a starter and thrived in that role before injuries — namely Tommy John surgery and a separate ulnar nerve transposition procedure — derailed his career. He returned to full strength in 2021 however, and after a few shaky starts early in the season, found a home in the Detroit bullpen.
From that point through the 2022 trade deadline, Fulmer was a rock-solid setup man and closer for a sub-.500 Tigers team. Detroit flipped him to the Twins prior to the 2022 trade deadline, receiving minor league pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long in return. Fulmer continued his smooth transition to the bullpen with a nice showing in Minnesota down the stretch, and he now touts a 2.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 39.2% grounder rate and 0.64 HR/9 mark in 111 2/3 innings since moving to a relief role on a full-time basis.
Fulmer had some command issues in the first half of the 2022 season, but those were largely ironed out following his trade to Minnesota, with whom he walked just 7.5% of the batters he faced. There are at least a handful of red flags on his 2022 season beyond the brief uptick in walks, however.
For instance, the 95.6 mph Fulmer averaged on his heater in 2021 dipped to 94.3 mph in 2022, while his 24.6% strikeout rate fell to 22.1% (and just 20.6% after the trade). The right-hander also went from one of the game’s best at managing hard contact (87th percentile average exit velocity, 76th percentile hard-hit rate) to just slightly above-average in 2022 (55th percentile exit velocity, 61st percentile hard-hit rate). Additionally, his strong 34.6% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate fell to 31.2% in 2022 — a career-low mark in a full 162-game season.
The extent to which factors like that combined to slow Fulmer’s market can’t be fully known, but it’s still a bit of a surprise that it took until the week before spring training for him to reach a deal. While financial terms of his contract haven’t yet come to light, the Cubs tend to wait out the market and scoop up veteran relievers at relatively bargain rates. Chicago hasn’t inked a reliever to a multi-year deal or even topped a $5MM guarantee for a reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel four years ago.
If that trend indeed continues, it could well prove to be a bargain for them. Fulmer isn’t a dominant, overpowering bullpen anchor, but he’s been a quality setup man with slightly above-average ability to miss bats, solid command and a knack for avoiding hard contact over the past two seasons. If his 2023 results fall in line anywhere between his 2021 and 2022 output, it’ll be a nice upgrade to a Cubs bullpen that is lacking in certainty.
Prior to the agreement with Fulmer, righties Brad Boxberger and Rowan Wick were the only relievers in the Chicago bullpen with even three years of Major League service time. The Cubs don’t have a set closer, so Fulmer figures to join Boxberger, Brandon Hughes and perhaps former top prospect Adbert Alzolay — who was excellent in a small sample of bullpen work last year — in competing for work in the ninth inning.
Top Guardians Prospect Daniel Espino Shut Down Eight Weeks With Shoulder Tear
Guardians right-hander Daniel Espino, ranked as one of top overall prospects in all of baseball, will be shut down from throwing for at least the next eight weeks after being diagnosed with a strain of his subscapularis in his right shoulder and a tear of the anterior capsule in that same shoulder, per the team. Cleveland also announced that 2022 first-round pick Chase DeLauter will miss at least four months due to a fracture in his left foot that required surgery last month. The outfielder suffered a different foot fracture last April while still playing at James Madison University.
Espino’s injury is the latest developmental setback for the 22-year-old righty, who ranks among the sport’s top 25 prospects at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. That’s due largely to an electric arsenal, headlined by an upper-90s heater that can reach triple digits, a plus slider and a pair of potentially average or better offerings in his changeup and curveball. Espino got out to a particularly brilliant start in 2022, posting a 2.45 ERA and striking out 35 of his 68 opponents in 18 1/3 innings through four starts.
Unfortunately for Espino, those four outings would be his only appearances of the season. He missed a couple months due to tendinitis in his knee, and he also battled shoulder troubles later in the summer. That same balky shoulder will now require a shutdown of roughly two months. A best-case scenario will see Espino resume throwing in late April, but even then, he’d need a fair bit of work before he was ready to pitch in a game setting. One would imagine he’ll be in line for a lengthier look in Double-A once he’s reached that point.
Espino was the No. 24 overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he’s managed only 156 1/3 professional innings to date thanks to last year’s injuries and the canceled 2020 minor league season. There’s still time for him to compile a fair number of innings in 2023, but it’s nevertheless discouraging for the organization and its fans that he’ll again begin the year sidelined due to health troubles.
As for DeLauter, he’s yet to even play in a professional game, thanks to that fractured foot last year, and he’ll now miss a substantial portion of the upcoming season after sustaining a new break. In a total of 66 NCAA games, DeLauter posted a comical .402/.520/.715 batting line with 15 home runs, 27 doubles, four triples, 24 steals (in 30 tries) and more walks (62) than strikeouts (45). Baseball America ranks him as the ninth-best prospect in a deep Guardians farm system.
White Sox Designate Bennett Sousa For Assignment
The White Sox announced Monday that they’ve designated lefty Bennett Sousa for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to Elvis Andrus, whose previously reported one-year, $3MM deal with the team is now official.
Sousa, 27, made his big league debut in 2022 but struggled to an 8.31 ERA, yielding 19 runs on 25 hits and 10 walks with 12 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He’s posted sub-4.00 ERAs with big strikeout numbers and strong ground-ball rates in the upper minors over the past few seasons, but he’s also battled command issues more often than not. Sousa did post a tiny 5.3% walk rate in 22 2/3 innings of Triple-A work in 2021, but that number ballooned to 10.3% in a comparable sample this past season.
Sousa has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which could appeal to other clubs in need of some left-handed bullpen depth. He also averaged a solid 94.3 mph on his heater in the big leagues last year, and his 11.7% swinging-strike rate (and history of missing bats in the minors) suggests there could be improvement on the horizon for a dismal 12.5% strikeout rate.
The White Sox will have a week to trade Sousa, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.
Brewers’ Jason Alexander Out Until May Due To Shoulder Injury
Brewers righty Jason Alexander is expected to miss more than a month to begin the season, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). The 29-year-old righty experienced discomfort in his shoulder when he was ramping up for spring training last month, and he’s likely to be sidelined into the second half of May. Alexander becomes the second Brewers pitcher who’ll miss substantial time due to shoulder trouble; left-hander Aaron Ashby will miss at least two months due to shoulder trouble of his own.
Alexander made his big league debut in Milwaukee last season, tossing 71 2/3 innings for the Brewers over the course of 11 starts and another seven relief appearances. He posted a strong 3.21 ERA over his first five starts before beginning to falter, ultimately finishing out his rookie campaign with a 5.40 ERA and a lowly 14.7% strikeout rate. Alexander’s 8.7% walk rate was generally solid, however, and he induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. The lack of punchouts and a susceptibility to home runs (1.51 HR/9) worked against him, but the righty had posted a 2.84 ERA in 63 1/3 Triple-A frames before being called to the big leagues.
Neither Alexander nor Ashby was guaranteed a rotation spot heading into 2023, but their absences will thin out Milwaukee’s depth a fair bit. It’s not clear whether the Brewers knew the full extent of either player’s shoulder issues when signing Wade Miley to a one-year deal last month, but what was once at least a somewhat surprising deal for a pitching-rich club could now prove pivotal. Regardless of whether Miley’s addition was made with the knowledge that Ashby and Alexander were ailing or whether it’s mere serendipity, the Brewers are surely glad to have the veteran southpaw on the staff.
The Brewers’ rotation heading into 2023 will feature Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and the aforementioned Miley. Righty Adrian Houser, a rotation staple the past couple seasons, is still on hand as a sixth option, but both Ashby and Alexander would’ve also been starting candidates in the event of injuries elsewhere on the staff. Trade acquisition Janson Junk, prospect Ethan Small and DFA reclamation Bryse Wilson give Milwaukee further depth, though Wilson is out of minor league options and isn’t necessarily a lock to make the Opening Day roster.
Pirates Win Arbitration Hearing Against Ji-Man Choi
The Pirates won their arbitration hearing against first baseman Ji-Man Choi, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). He’ll earn the $4.65MM salary submitted by the team, as opposed to the $5.4MM salary his camp submitted on exchange day last month.
Acquired in a November trade that sent minor league pitcher Jack Hartman back to the Rays, Choi is heading into his final season of control before he’ll reach the free-agent market. The 31-year-old turned in a .233/.341/.488 batting line with Tampa Bay in 2022, swatting 11 home runs and 22 doubles while operating primarily as a platoon bat at first base and designated hitter. That’s a role with which Choi is familiar; just 16% of his career plate appearances have come against lefties (278 of 1724), and he’s a lifetime .203/.288/.301 hitter against them. Conversely, he’s hit righties at a .247/.356/.454 pace in 1446 plate appearances.
With the Pirates, Choi will pair with fellow offseason acquisition Carlos Santana to split time between first base and designated hitter. He’ll add some thump to a Pirates lineup that mustered only a .224/.296/.362 batting line against righties in 2022 — resulting in an ugly 86 wRC+ that ranked 26th among all MLB clubs.
Choi underwent elbow surgery shortly after the trade, but the Pirates were aware of the injury and confident that he’d be ready to go for spring training. By all accounts, that’s still the expectation. Mackey notes that Choi arrived at Pirates camp this morning but has yet to speak with the media.
With Choi’s salary now set, the Pirates’ payroll is finalized, barring any late additions via the free-agent or trade markets (or any possible extensions this spring). As it stands, they’ll head into the year with just north of $75MM committed to their roster. Small as that number may be, it represents a leap of nearly $20MM over last year’s Opening Day mark of $55.7MM, which ranked 28th among baseball’s 30 teams.