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Braves To Non-Tender Charlie Culberson

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The Braves will non-tender infielder/outfielder Charlie Culberson prior to tonight’s deadline, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted not long before that the organization was considering such a move. Culberson will immediately become a free agent who is eligible to sign with any team.

It’ll go down as an unpopular move among Atlanta fans, as Culberson has not only distanced himself from a woeful slump to begin his Braves tenure in 2018 (.203/.266/.339 through his first two months) but also emerged as something of a fan favorite after excelling in some clutch situations in 2018. Overall, his 2018 campaign resulted in a productive .270/.326/.466 batting line through 322 plate appearances.

However, Culberson was limited to just 144 plate appearances in 2019 despite appearing in 108 games, and he wasn’t particularly productive when he did step to the plate, hitting .259/.294/.437 (83 OPS+, 85 wRC+). His 2019 season was cut short in September by a fractured cheek bone suffered upon being hit by a Fernando Rodney fastball, but there’s no indication to this point that he’s expected to miss time in 2020. Still, this year’s downturn in production landed him on our list of non-tender candidates late last week.

In all, Culberson posted a respectable .267/.316/.457 batting line in 466 plate appearances as a Brave, but the team apparently wasn’t comfortable with what he might earn in arbitration. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $1.8MM salary.) Any club that picks him up would be able to sign him to just a one-year pact and still control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Blue Jays Announce Several Minor League Signings

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The Blue Jays announced Monday that they’ve signed five players to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training: right-handers Justin Miller, Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole (as had been previously been reported in Cole’s case), outfielder Patrick Kivlehan and infielder Andy Burns.

Miller, 32, has the most notable recent experience at the MLB level among the newly known signees. He spent the 2018-19 seasons pitching out of the Nationals’ bullpen and looked to be a savvy bargain find in the first of those two campaigns. The 2018 season saw Miller work to a 3.61 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 33.6 percent ground-ball rate. He was prone to home runs (1.72 HR/9), but Miller’s ability to miss bats and limit walks allowed him to produce a rather solid season.

Things went south in 2019, as Miller’s already homer-prone arsenal was clobbered among a leaguewide home-run surge; in 15 2/3 innings he posted a 4.02 ERA but a 7.11 FIP thanks to five home runs allowed. Those 2019 struggles notwithstanding, Miller has averaged better than a strikeout per inning in 156 1/3 MLB frames.

Aumont, 30, was also in the Jays’ system back in 2015. The Gatineau, Quebec native spent the 2019 season pitching with the Ottawa Champions of the independent Canadian-American Association, where he logged a 2.65 ERA with a scintillating 145-to-23 K/BB ratio in 118 2/3 innings (18 starts). He’s struggled mightily in 43 2/3 MLB innings but has averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in parts of seven Triple-A campaigns. Walks have previously been an issue for him, but his control was exceptional in ’19. Aumont has worked for more as a reliever than a starter in his professional career, but perhaps the Jays could utilize him as rotation depth this time around.

Kivlehan, 30 later this month, had a productive season between Toronto’s Double-A and Triple-A clubs in 2019, so it’s not a surprise that they opted to bring him back. He’s a career .208/.302/.401 hitter in 242 MLB plate appearances but a .262/.325/.480 hitter in his Triple-A career. He has experience at all four corner positions.

Burns, another familiar face for Toronto fans, followed up a nice two-year run in the KBO from 2017-18 with a .275/.364/.470 showing with the Jays’ Triple-A club in Buffalo in 2019. With the exception of that two-year stint in South Korea, Burns has spent his entire career in the Blue Jays organization.

Rangers Claim Nick Goody

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Dec. 2: Goody has accepted the assignment and been added to the Rangers’ 40-man roster, per a club announcement. The team’s 40-man roster is now full.

Nov. 26: Indians right-hander Nick Goody has been claimed off waivers by the Rangers, per an announcement from the Texas organization. (MLBTR reported that he’d been claimed by an unknown team this afternoon.) Players claimed off release waivers have five days to accept the assignment to their new club or reject in favor of free agency.

Goody, 28, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive a $1.1MM salary via arbitration this winter. The right-hander had a terrific 2017 season for the Indians, compiling a 2.80 ERA with 11.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 in 54 innings out of the bullpen. Goody logged an eye-popping 16.1 percent swinging-strike rate that season and whiffed nearly a third of the hitters he faced. His slider, in particular, gave opponents fits, as evidenced by a 24.2 percent swinging-strike mark and an awful .147 opponents’ average against the pitch.

An elbow strain caused Goody to miss most of the 2018 season, however, limiting him to 11 2/3 innings of 6.94 ERA ball. He was healthy again for most of the 2019 season and turned out a solid 3.54 ERA with a 50-to-22 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings. Control was an issue for Goody this past season, and his 25.7 percent fly-ball rate was a career-low. But the right-hander’s 92.8 mph average fastball was a career-high, and his slider, which was hammered in 2018, appeared to be back into good form in 2019 (.123 average against; 23.2 percent swinging-strike rate).

If Goody does indeed accept his assignment to the Rangers and go through the arbitration process, he’d be controllable for not only the 2020 season but also the 2021-22 seasons.

Red Sox Will Tender Contract To Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Despite some recent speculation that the Red Sox could non-tender Jackie Bradley Jr. prior to tonight’s 8pm ET deadline, the organization will tender him a contract for the 2020 season, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter link).

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested last night that a non-tender of Bradley could be possible (subscription required), pointing out that the $11MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bradley to earn in his final season of club control may be steeper than the team prefers. But Bradley’s strong defensive track record, extra-base pop and speed are seemingly enough that the Boston organization feels he’ll at least be valued at that rate elsewhere. The dearth of useful center fielders in free agency certainly makes that likely.

It stands to reason that Bradley is still a candidate to change hands between now and Opening Day 2020. Boston’s payroll is already in the $230MM neighborhood (including arbitration projections and pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster), and there are notable holes to address on the roster. Moving Bradley would be the second of what could be several moves designed to scale back on the 2020 payroll; the Red Sox also traded catcher Sandy Leon to the Indians earlier this morning, shedding a projected $2.8MM salary in the process.

The 29-year-old Bradley hit .225/.317/.421 with 21 long balls, 28 doubles and three triples in 567 plate appearances with the Sox this past season. However, he hasn’t had an above-average year at the plate (by measure of OPS+ or wRC+) since his All-Star 2016 season, and his typically brilliant defensive ratings slid in 2019 as well. Bradley drew ratings of -1 Defensive Runs Saved and a -1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, although Statcast’s Outs Above Average still pegged him as a quality defender (+6). The 2018 Gold Glover has long been considered to be one of the game’s better defensive outfielders.

Looking around the league, several teams (Cubs, Mets, D-backs, Braves, Phillies, Reds, White Sox) could be in the market for a short-term addition in center field. The D-backs, in particular, seem like a plausible fit given the presence of former Boston execs Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter in the front office and given the team’s history of acquiring former Red Sox players (Clay Buchholz, Blake Swihart, Robby Scott, Deven Marrero, Henry Owens). Arizona “would have interest” in acquiring Bradley, Rosenthal wrote last night, which would allow them to play Ketel Marte at second base rather than in center field.

Twins Rumors: Ryu, Rotation, Cron, Gibson

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The Twins, in need of rotation upgrades, have been in touch with agent Scott Boras about left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at 25:10 mark). It’s hardly surprising, as Minnesota figures to gauge the prices of virtually every top starter available, but the connection is nevertheless of some note. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune also links the Twins to Ryu, and he adds that manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson have been involved in the early recruiting process for the team’s top pitching targets. The general goal of those efforts is to help paint a picture of the culture the Twins try to foster and the means by which they feel they can help pitchers improve. “Making sure that people are comfortable and are going to a place with the right people they want to be with and they want to work with,” Baldelli said of the process. “…I enjoy talking with guys. Some of them end up Twins and some of them don’t. All of those conversations are worthwhile in every way.”

Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…

  • Also within his podcast, Wolfson adds that there’s some internal trepidation about paying first baseman C.J. Cron at the $7.7MM rate projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They’ll have until 8pm ET tonight to tender Cron a contract, and it’s possible that they could try to bring him back at a lower rate. But the Twins have also continued to discuss the possibility of moving Miguel Sano from third base to first base, which would free up the possibility of acquiring a third baseman either via free agency (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier) or trade. If the Twins part ways with Cron, they’d be at $48.9MM in guaranteed contracts plus another $41.1MM in projected arbitration salaries and pre-arbitration contracts. That rough $90MM sum is well shy of the $130MM record payroll with which they opened the 2018 season, and the team’s 2019 attendance rose by nearly 250,000 over the 2017 season that preceded that record level of spending.
  • Longtime Twins righty Kyle Gibson will embark on the next chapter of his career with the Rangers after agreeing to a three-year, $30MM deal last Wednesday. The former first-round pick apparently bet on himself in 2019, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Minnesota had tried to sign Gibson to a two-year pact worth $17MM a year ago. Gibson, however, spurned what would’ve been the first multi-year guarantee of his career and came out ahead as a result. He ultimately earned $8.125MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will take that home on top of the additional $30MM he’ll be guaranteed with Texas once his deal is formally announced.

2019 Non-Tender Candidates

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At the start of the offseason, 277 players were on 40-man rosters and eligible for arbitration. That number has been pared back substantially as all 30 teams have worked to trim the fringes of their rosters. For those who remain, the non-tender deadline is this coming Monday at 8pm ET. By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a (non-guaranteed) contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.

It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded in the next few days rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers. Orioles second baseman Jonathan Villar, for instance, is currently on outright waivers and may land with another team. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.

Onto the list, with salary projections (included in parentheses below) coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Position Players

Tim Beckham, INF, Mariners ($3MM — Beckham still has 32 games remaining on an 80-game PED suspension)
C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins ($7.7MM)
Charlie Culberson, INF/OF, Braves ($1.8MM)
Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, C, Pirates ($1.4MM)
Wilmer Difo, INF, Nationals ($1.2MM)
Brandon Drury, INF/OF, Blue Jays ($2.5MM)
Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies ($5.7MM)
Erik Gonzalez, INF, Pirates ($800K)
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies ($11.8MM)
Caleb Joseph, C, D-backs ($1.2MM)
Jake Lamb, 1B/3B, D-backs ($5MM)
Luke Maile, C, Blue Jays ($800K)
Sandy Leon, C, Red Sox ($2.8MM)
John Ryan Murphy, C, Braves ($1.2MM)
Jose Peraza, INF, Reds ($3.6MM)
Josh Phegley, C, Athletics ($2.2MM)
Chad Pinder, INF/OF, Athletics ($1.8MM)
Kevin Pillar, CF, Giants ($9.7MM)
Jurickson Profar, INF, Athletics ($5.8MM)
Joey Rickard, OF, Giants ($1.1MM)
Addison Russell, 2B/SS, Cubs ($5.1MM)
Tyler Saladino, 2B/SS, Brewers ($1MM)
Domingo Santana, OF/DH, Mariners ($4.4MM)
Travis Shaw, 3B/1B, Brewers ($4.7MM)
Steven Souza Jr., OF, D-backs ($4.125MM)
Tony Wolters, C, Rockies ($2MM)

Starters

Tyler Anderson, LHP, Giants ($2.625MM)
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Reds ($10.6MM)
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Astros ($5.6MM — Sanchez is recovering from shoulder surgery that’ll sideline him into 2020)
Jose Urena, RHP, Marlins ($4MM)

Relievers

Scott Alexander, LHP, Dodgers ($1MM)
Adam Conley, LHP, Marlins ($1.6MM)
Chris Devenski, RHP, Astros ($2MM)
Yimi Garcia, RHP, Dodgers ($1.1MM)
Javy Guerra, RHP, Nationals ($1.3MM)
Koda Glover, RHP, Nationals ($700K)
Derek Law, RHP, Blue Jays ($1.3M)
Chaz Roe, RHP, Rays ($2.2MM)
Hunter Strickland, RHP, Nationals ($1.9MM)
Blake Treinen, RHP, Athletics ($7.8MM)

Diamondbacks Sign Stephen Vogt

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Nov. 29: Vogt will be paid $2.5MM in 2020 and has a $500K buyout of a $3MM option for the 2021 campaign, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. That option can trigger automatically depending on playing time, and the contract contains escalators (based on games started) that would boost Vogt’s salary in 2021.

Nov. 26: The Diamondbacks made a low-cost strike on the free-agent market, adding catcher Stephen Vogt on a one-year contract, the team announced Tuesday evening. The deal will reportedly promise Vogt a total of $3MM, and it also contains a vesting option for the 2021 season. Vogt is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Stephen Vogt | Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Vogt, 35, feared his career could be over following a 2018 shoulder surgery with the Brewers, but he landed with the Giants on a minor league pact and proved himself with a quietly strong rebound season. In 280 plate appearances spread over the life of 99 games, the former All-Star hit .263/.314/.490 with 10 home runs.

Arizona’s need for a backstop isn’t necessarily acute, but Vogt’s left-handed bat will pair nicely with the up-and-coming Carson Kelly, who hits from the opposite side of the dish — and does so quite well (.356/.462/.667 versus lefties in 2019). Vogt will also give the 25-year-old Kelly another veteran mentor under whom to study, replacing fellow free agent Alex Avila, who remains unsigned but now appears destined to land elsewhere.

The D-backs also have veteran catcher Caleb Joseph on the 40-man roster as a third option, and given the fact that they’ve previously carried three catchers at a time even with a 25-man roster, it seems plausible that they’ll do so again now that rosters are set to expand to 26 players for the 2020 season. Alternatively, Vogt’s acquisition could also spell the end of Joseph’s time with the Arizona organization. He’s arbitration-eligible this winter and projected to receive a $1.2MM salary, which the club may feel too steep to pay a third catcher who falls behind both Kelly and Vogt on the depth chart.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) and Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links) added details on the financial structure.

Justin Bour To Sign With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

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Free agent first baseman Justin Bour has reached an agreement with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Tigers GM Osamu Tanimoto tells the Japan Times. Bour had been outrighted by the Angels at season’s end and elected free agency.

The 31-year-old Bour signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Halos last winter but turned in a career-worst .172/.259/.364 batting line in his short time with the organization. He continued to display above-average walk tendencies (10 percent in 2019; 11.2 percent career) and also showed above-average power (.192 ISO), but Bour’s 30.6 percent strikeout rate this past season was far and away the highest of his career. Ultimately, he played in just 52 games as an Angel and tallied 170 plate appearances.

Bour will head to Japan as a career .253/.337/.457 hitter with 92 home runs, 71 doubles and a pair of triples in 1950 Major League plate appearance — most of which came with the Marlins. He’s never handled left-handed pitching particularly well (.215/.302/.324), but he owns a stout .262/.345/.490 career batting line against right-handed pitching.

Orioles Reportedly Place Jonathan Villar On Waivers

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The Orioles have placed infielder Jonathan Villar on outright waivers after being unable to find a trade partner for the fleet-footed switch-hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (via Twitter). Villar’s projected $10.4MM arbitration salary apparently served as too substantial a roadblock to overcome when marketing him to other teams.

It’s an extreme cost-cutting measure for the tanking Orioles — one that frankly looks unnecessary. Even with Villar in the fold, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll projects to come in south of $80MM, so it’s not as if there is (or should be) any real pressure to shed salary.

Beyond that is the simple fact that Villar has been a fine player in Baltimore — arguably the organization’s best in 2019. The 28-year-old batted .274/.339/.453 with 24 home runs, 33 doubles, five triples and a whopping 40 stolen bases (in 49 attempts) this past season. Defensive metrics soured on his work at second base but gave him passable marks at shortstop — and Villar does have a track record as a useful glove at second prior to the 2019 season.

Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com valued Villar at four wins above replacement this past season. Clearly the Orioles aren’t the only team in the league that doesn’t value Villar at his current price point — hence the lack of trade interest — but there’s virtually no way off spinning this as a move that makes Baltimore a better team in 2020.

Even if the Orioles reinvest that roughly $10MM sum, there’s little reason that with their current level of financial commitment they couldn’t simply have kept Villar and spent an additional $10MM anyhow. And it’s unlikely that Villar’s eventual replacement will give them superior on-field results. It looks to be a move designed to lose more games next season, and it’s surely a tough blow for a fanbase that has had few quality performances to cheer over the past couple of seasons.

Villar will be available for any club to claim at this point, though the new team would be on the hook for the same projected salary in arbitration. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll surely opt for free agency, at which point he’ll be able to sign with any team for any amount. Given the lack of trade interest in Villar, it’s certainly possible that he will indeed pass through waivers, but he should draw plenty of interest on Major League deals — perhaps even a two-year pact at a lower annual rate. For the Orioles, meanwhile, the optics of letting him go for no return aren’t great, and the move will be tough to sell to the fans.

Rangers, Rob Refsnyder Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports (via Twitter). He’s represented by PSI Sports Management.

Refsnyder, 29 in March, split the 2019 season between the Reds and D-backs organization but didn’t appear in a big league game. That marked the first time in five years that the versatile utilityman hadn’t appeared at the MLB level. Despite the lack of a big league call-up, Refsnyder was productive in the minors, batting a combined .312/.374/.492 with 10 homer, 22 doubles and a pair of triples across 88 games and 348 plate appearances.

At one point, Yankees fans had hope that Refsnyder could be a long-term piece at second base. Those days have long since passed, but Refsnyder has settled in as an up-and-down bench piece and an AL East veteran, logging big league time with both the Blue Jays and Rays in addition to his time with the Yankees. He’s a lifetime .218/.308/.302 hitter in 423 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer and has appeared at second base, first base, third base, left field and right field in the Majors.

The right-handed-hitting Refsnyder owns a career .296/.372/.436 line in parts of six Triple-A campaigns, making him a nice depth piece for Texas to have on hand. If the Rangers can strike gold with Refsnyder in the same manner they did with Danny Santana in 2019, he’d technically be controllable through the 2023 season.

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