Stephen Strasburg Undergoes Carpal Tunnel Surgery
Stephen Strasburg underwent surgery to alleviate carpal tunnel syndrome in his right hand earlier today, Nationals manager Dave Martinez tells reporters (Twitter link via Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). Surgery was already known to be in store for Strasburg, who was placed on the 45-day injured list over the weekend. He’ll be out for the remainder of the 2020 season. The team has yet to provide a timeline for his recovery, though the hope is that he’ll be ready to go in 2021.
The 32-year-old Strasburg appeared in just two games this year and has otherwise been shelved by ongoing issues in his right hand. He was diagnosed with carpal tunnel syndrome a bit more than a week ago and, after visiting with a specialist late last week, made the decision on Saturday to undergo surgery.
The absence of Strasburg has surely played a role in a pedestrian season for the Nats, who currently sit at 11-16, placing them last in the National League East. Washington, of course, famously rallied from a dismal start to the 2019 season as well, but if they’re to enjoy a similar Cinderella tale in 2020, they’ll need to do so without the help of last year’s World Series MVP.
With Strasburg sidelined, the Nats have been leaning on a combination of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde as their primary starters. Scherzer has had some uncharacteristic struggles but still posted passable results, but each of Sanchez (6.48 ERA), Voth (6.65) and Fedde (5.11) has struggled considerably. There’s no indication yet as to how the Nats plan to proceed at this year’s Aug. 31 trade deadline, but considering the fact that virtually the entire National League (Pittsburgh excluded) is within two and a half games of a Wild Card spot, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Washington pursue some affordable rotation upgrades — both to bolster its hopes in 2020 and perhaps to reinforce the staff in subsequent campaigns.
Martinez also revealed Wednesday that lefty Seth Romero, the Nationals’ first-round pick from 2017 who made his MLB debut earlier this year, will undergo surgery to place a pin his fractured right hand (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Martinez explained recently that Romero suffered the fracture when he slipped on some stairs and braced for the fall with his right hand. While it’s fortunate for his long-term outlook that the injury wasn’t in his pitching hand, the procedure seems likely to end Romero’s season.
The 24-year-old Romero allowed four runs in 2 2/3 innings over three appearances in his first taste of the Majors. He’d missed much of the 2018 season and all of the 2019 season due to an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. To this point, Romero has still thrown only 50 professional innings.
Latest On Keone Kela, Joe Musgrove
Pirates righty Keone Kela exited last Friday’s relief outing due to forearm tightness, and the right-hander still hasn’t thrown since that departure, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk tells reporters (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Adam Berry and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel). As for righty Joe Musgrove, who is out with triceps inflammation, he’s set to pitch in a simulated game in the next couple of days.
The injury status of both righties is of particular note with the Aug. 31 trade deadline looming Monday. As a pending free agent on a last-place club, Kela in particular seems like a lock to be moved — if he’s healthy. At this point, it’s not at all clear that’s the case, and there’s minimal time for him to demonstrate his health for potential suitors.
The return for rental players is already expected to be diminished in 2020 given that the post-deadline portion of the schedule is now only four weeks, as opposed to two months in a conventional season. Questions about Kela’s health will only further drive down the price, but there’s little reason for the Pirates to hang onto him, given that he’s not a candidate to receive a qualifying offer this winter.
There’d be less urgency to move Musgrove, but had he been healthy, it’s easy to see him landing among the game’s more coveted arms. Teams are extra-motivated to acquire players controlled beyond the 2020 season, and Musgrove, who has cemented himself as a solid third or fourth starter, is controllable through 2022. The rebuilding Pirates aren’t going to be in position to contend by that time, so shopping Musgrove would make plenty of sense. Due to what is already more than a three-week IL stint, however, it seems likelier that he’ll be marketed in the offseason. A trade could technically come together if he returns by Aug. 31 or even if he’s still on the injured list, but as with Kela, health concerns could reduce what other teams are willing to offer.
Elsewhere on the roster, Tomczyk revealed that slugger Colin Moran is currently in concussion protocol after being involved in a collision at first base Monday. He’s out to a blistering start to the 2020 season and could’ve been viewed as a trade candidate himself, but he’ll likely need to be cleared and return to play if any team is to show interest. Moran is defensively limited, to say the least, but he’s hitting .259/.326/.531 (129 wRC+) and is controllable through the 2023 season.
Giants Trade Rob Brantly To Yankees
The Yankees have acquired veteran catcher Rob Brantly from the Giants in exchange for cash and assigned him to their alternate training site, per a team announcement. Brantly was designated for assignment early in the season and assigned outright to the Giants’ alternate site after clearing waivers. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster but will be added to the Yankees’ 60-man player pool.
The 31-year-old Brantly appeared in just one game with the Giants and went 0-for-3 before his DFA. He’s a well-traveled veteran that has seen action in parts of six MLB seasons, hitting at a combined .228/.292/.330 clip in 432 plate appearances. Brantly has a solid 28 percent caught-stealing rate from behind the dish but less favorable number in terms of pitch framing.
Brantly will add some catching depth to a Yankees club that has seen Gary Sanchez struggle at the plate and Chris Iannetta depart for retirement. Backup Kyle Higashioka, meanwhile, is on the injured list due to an oblique strain, which prompted the Yankees to bring up veteran Erik Kratz. New York also has catchers Josh Thole, Max McDowell and Wynston Sawyer at its alternate training site at the moment.
Trade Notes: Mets, Twins, Pirates, Red Sox
Typically one for bold and confident statements, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered a more measured approach when asked about the trade deadline this week, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. While the Mets will be open to making improvements, Van Wagenen spoke of exercising caution and being “responsible for the future of the organization.” The agent-turned-GM added that he expects other clubs to take a similarly conservative approach due to the short nature of the 2020 season — particularly the post-deadline period. None of this rules out a move of note for the Mets, and Van Wagenen went to the oft-used “opportunistic” as an adjective to describe his mentality as Monday’s deadline loom.
The Mets dropped both games of yesterday’s doubleheader against the Marlins, falling to 12-16 in the process. However, they’re part of a tightly bunched group of NL clubs with mediocre records. The Pirates are currently the only team in the NL more than 2.5 games back from a potential playoff spot.
Some more trade chatter from around the game…
- The Twins are tied with the Rays for the second-best record in the American League, but a major move to further separate them from the pack may not be in the offing. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey instead emphasized to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune the importance of getting some key internal reinforcements in the near future. Righty Michael Pineda will be eligible to return from a reduced PED suspension Sunday, adding a big arm to the club’s rotation mix. Likewise, third baseman Josh Donaldson, out for much of this month with a calf issue, is nearing a return. Falvey acknowledged taking an overly “conservative” approach to Donaldson’s rehab, given his history of calf troubles and the desire to have him at 100 percent for the playoff push. The Twins are open to trade opportunities, of course, but don’t seem as pressed to make a move thanks to their strong start and existing depth.
- On the opposite side of the coin, Pirates general manager Ben Cherington is “trying to sell everything,” one rival executive tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s hardly a surprise given the Pirates’ miserable start to the 2020 season and the recent regime change that installed Cherington atop the baseball ops hierarchy. Cherington will have a difficult line to walk as his best chips (Keone Kela and Joe Musgrove) have injury concern while others who should be appealing (e.g. Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier) have gotten out to disastrous starts that will likely weaken the offers submitted by other clubs (or eliminate interest entirely).
- Christian Vazquez knows that the Red Sox will be fielding offers for him over the next five days, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, but he hopes to remain in Boston and says he’d prefer to spend his whole career with the Sox. That’s obviously out of his control at the moment, with the Sox likely willing to move just about anyone outside of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. As Speier examines, the history of starting catchers changing hands and making a sizable impact during deadline season is more limited than some might think. Vazquez himself weighed in on the challenges that would exist in jumping to a new club and trying to educate himself on a new pitching staff and build a rapport with so many new arms, likening it to being a “rookie” all over again. Vazquez is guaranteed $6.25MM in 2021 and has a $7MM option for the 2022 season, though, which does make him a rather appealing trade target for clubs with catching needs that span beyond 2020.
Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates
We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt. Of course, it’s very much up in the air just how many significant deals will go down during a pandemic-shortened campaign that not only features just 60 regular-season games, but more teams dreaming of playoff berths than usual. Major League Baseball decided to add three extra playoff teams per league for 2020, and that’s obviously going to impact how clubs handle the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said as much last Friday, telling Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that playoff expansion has led to “fewer” sellers than usual as Aug. 31 approaches.
Another factor that could lead to fewer trades: Players who may be dealt must consider whether they want to change teams and home cities as the coronavirus runs amok. Any player who may be on the move could decide to opt out of the season if he’s uncomfortable uprooting his life.
As a deadline unlike any we’ve seen before nears, let’s dive into our list (statistics current as of Aug. 24)…
1. Taijuan Walker, SP, Mariners: Walker is an affordable impending free agent on a clear non-contender. He’s a pure rental, but plenty of contenders are looking for rotation reinforcements. Walker has had two tough starts and three very good ones, leading to a combined 4.00 ERA with a 25-to-8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings.
2. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates: Similar to Walker in Seattle, Kela is an impending free agent and an established pitcher on MLB’s worst team. There’s no incentive for the Bucs to hang onto him, and while the return for a one-month rental of a reliever won’t be huge, it’s better than letting him walk for nothing. Kela missed the first several weeks of 2020 on the Covid-19 IL, and he was pulled from his last appearance due to forearm tightness. The Pirates called that decision “overly cautious.” So long as he’s healthy, Kela is a lock to be flipped.
3. Dylan Bundy, SP, Angels: The once-elite prospect has looked like the ace many expected him to become, and while it’s only six starts, it’s hard not to be impressed. The Angels could hang onto him for next year, but they’re buried in the standings right now and as a pitcher controllable through 2021, Bundy will have much more appeal than rentals. GM Billy Eppler could likely flip Bundy for more than the meager price he paid to acquire him this winter. Few players have raised their stock more, and the demand for rotation help far outweighs the supply.
4. Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers: Lynn’s ascension to one of the game’s best arms has come out of the blue, but there’s little denying how great he’s been since signing in Texas. He’s half through a three-year, $30MM deal and has thus far pitched to a 3.30 ERA and 3.15 FIP with 10.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.92 HR/9. Lynn rarely throws anything other than a four-seamer or cutter, but the formula works for him; he’s lasted at least five innings in 39 of his 40 Rangers starts and averaged 6 1/3 frames per outing. Signed through next season on a Rangers club that has dropped eight of nine, Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.
5-6. Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland, RPs, Royals: The Royals picked up both formerly elite closers on minor league deals this winter and have been rewarded handsomely — particularly in the case of Rosenthal, who has allowed two runs with a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 frames. They’re highly affordable and on a team that is five games below .500, they should be highly available, too. The Royals opted not to move Ian Kennedy last year, and he’s a pending free agent as well, but he’s also on a $16.5MM salary in 2020 (prorated to $5.9MM) and pitching poorly.
7. Kevin Gausman, SP, Giants: The Giants signed Gausman as a one-year rental, knowing full well they’d be in position to flip him prior to the trade deadline. He’s delivered a 42-to-6 K/BB ratio with a career-best 12.2 K/9 and a 3.10 FIP so far through 31 innings. The rental market doesn’t feature many prominent names in 2020, but Gausman is among the best performers and likeliest names to be moved.
8. Tony Watson, RP, Giants: A veteran lefty that’ll become a free agent after the 2020 season, Watson has allowed one run through 9 2/3 frames with the Giants. He has closing experience, handles righties nearly as well as lefties and is playing on an affordable one-year deal. There’s little reason for Giants to hold here, and any club in need of ‘pen help would harbor some level of interest.
9. Kevin Pillar, OF, Red Sox: Seeking a steady veteran for their outfield back in February, the Red Sox inked Pillar to a one-year, $4.25MM deal after the club traded Mookie Betts. Needless to say, Pillar’s no Betts, but the former Blue Jay and Giant has been a bright spot on a bad Boston team. Pillar, 31, has batted .278/.340/.454 through 106 plate appearances, though his numbers have tumbled recently. Regardless, Pillar’s a well-regarded defender (albeit not the all-world one he used to be) who can play all three outfield positions and a passable enough hitter that he could garner interest from contenders looking to bolster outfield depth.
10. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels: Simmons would be higher on the list had he been healthy and productive all year, but he’s played in just seven games due to an ankle injury. The 30-year-old has been the best defender in MLB dating back to his debut and could very well change hands in the next few days. But he’s also a qualifying offer candidate, and if the offers for him don’t outweigh the value of a compensatory draft pick, the Halos could just hold.
11-12. Tommy La Stella, INF; Jason Castro, C, Angels: A pair of affordable veterans who are set to be free agents this winter, La Stella and Castro both figure to be available. La Stella’s bat has erupted with a .288/.350/.478 showing since he landed in Anaheim in 2019. Castro isn’t hitting for average, but he’s considered a premium defender with huge walk rates and some pop in his bat. That’s been the case with the Halos and will be the case wherever else he lands.
13. Derek Holland, SP/RP, Pirates: The Bucs have used Holland in the rotation (plus one relief outing), and he’s been a passable option outside a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. A rival club might not view him as a rotation piece, but lefties are hitting .143/.143/.214 against Holland this year. The three-batter minimum limits a team’s ability to use anyone as a specialist, but Holland has a long enough track record in the Majors that someone could still drop him into the ‘pen and hope to match him up against lefties more than righties.
14. Matt Barnes, RP, Red Sox: Barnes has already watched teammates Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree get shipped out, and he’s not likely to be far behind. It’s true that he’s had a pair of rough outings recently that have ballooned his ERA to 5.73, but it’s also true that he averaged better than 15 K/9 last year. Since 2016, Barnes has a 3.92 ERA and 3.38 FIP with 12.3 K/9. He’s controlled through 2021.
15. Buck Farmer, RP, Tigers: Farmer has emerged as a steady relief presence in a shaky Detroit bullpen. He’s dropped his slider usage in favor of his changeup this year, with the result being far fewer strikeouts but considerably more grounders. Farmer is controlled cheaply through 2022 and induces gobs of weak contact.
16-17. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, RPs, Orioles: The O’s start to the season turned some heads, but they’ve dropped seven of 10 and faded from the division picture, as most would expect. Givens, controlled through 2021, has been a rumored trade piece for years and is out to another strong start. Castro, controlled through 2022, has 21 punchouts and a career-high 54.5 percent grounder rate in 13 2/3 innings. Baltimore could shop them individually, but a package deal could hold appeal to a bullpen-needy club.
18. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox: Long a sterling defensive backstop, Vazquez broke out with 23 big flies last season and hit .276/.320/.477 overall. He’s not hitting as well in 2020, but Vazquez is at least an average hitter at his position with a plus glove. He’s guaranteed $6.25MM in 2021 and has a $7MM club option for 2022.
19-20. Mike Clevinger, Zach Plesac, SPs, Indians: Clevinger and Plesac have shown they’re capable of performing at high levels, and they’re each under control for multiple years. Both pitchers violated the league’s health-and-safety protocols this month, though, drawing some ire within the organization. The Indians optioned both players after that, even though they provide plenty of on-field value, and finally recalled Clevinger on Tuesday. He’s the likelier of the two to move given his mounting arbitration salary and lesser amount of team control. He’s controlled through 2022, while Plesac is controlled through 2025.
21. Matt Magill, RP, Mariners: Magill’s 2020 numbers are skewed after being rocked for five runs in one outing last week, but prior to that he looked like a terrific waiver gem for the M’s. If you’re willing to allow that all relievers are prone to the occasional implosion, Magill’s first 30 appearances with the Mariners produced a 2.67 ERA and 2.94 FIP with 11.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a hefty 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate. Magill bounced back from that brutal appearance with a perfect inning. He’s controlled through 2023 and has a 3.94 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings with the Mariners.
22. Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B, Orioles: Alberto just hasn’t stopped hitting with the O’s. He’s batting .305/.329/.429 in 671 plate appearances dating back to 2019. Alberto almost never walks (2.9% in Baltimore), but he’s also extremely difficult to strike out (10 percent). His power output is up in 2020 thanks to a deluge of doubles, and he’s a solid glove at either second or third (and playable at short in a pinch). The O’s control him through 2022, but a contending club with infield needs could benefit immediately.
23. Brian Goodwin, OF, Angels: Claimed off release waivers from the Royals at the end of Spring Training 2019, Goodwin has batted .258/.325/.470 in 555 plate appearances with the Halos over his past 162 games. He’s controllable through 2022 and has experience at all three outfield spots, but the Halos have Jo Adell up with Brandon Marsh not far behind. Moving Goodwin could open more time for the kids while returning some decent talent. (They’re not getting out from under the Justin Upton deal anytime soon.)
24. Rick Porcello, SP, Mets: The Mets play nine games in the next six days — 2020 is weird, folks — which will largely determine their deadline approach. Porcello was absolutely clobbered in his first start (seven runs, two innings) and has pitched well since (11 runs, 23 innings, 20-to-3 K/BB ratio). If things go south for the Mets, he’ll vault up this list.
25. Brandon Kintzler, RP, Marlins: The 36-year-old looks like he usually does: low strikeout rate, excellent control, plus ground-ball rate. He has high-leverage experience, gets gobs of grounders with a bowling-ball sinker and is playing on a one-year deal with a Miami club that has admittedly surprised to this point. Maybe the Fish will feel the return doesn’t justify dealing him when they’re on the fringe of the postseason race, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Kintzler move.
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Latest On Yankees’ Search For Pitching Help
8:13pm: The Yankees have called the Giants about righty Kevin Gausman, according to Martino. Gausman, whom the Giants signed to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter, has tossed 31 innings of 4.65 ERA ball (with a far shinier 3.10 FIP) and recorded 12.19 K/9 against 1.74 BB/9 this season. The 29-year-old spent 2013-18 in the Yankees’ division, the AL East, as a member of the Orioles.
8:50am: The Yankees find themselves in a familiar position with just six days until the Aug. 31 trade deadline: battling for first place in the AL East with a pitching staff that has been thinned out by injuries. Luis Severino won’t pitch this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and James Paxton just landed on the IL after weeks of shaky results with diminished velocity. Just as Aroldis Chapman returned for his season debut, Zack Britton went down with a hamstring strain. Tommy Kahnle had Tommy John surgery. Southpaw Luis Avilan is out with shoulder troubles. On top of the injuries, Domingo German‘s suspension removes him from the depth chart for 2020.
New York still possesses a deep bullpen, even with Kahnle out for the year and Britton sidelined into September, but the rotation is much shakier. Gerrit Cole has been excellent thus far, but Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t thrown more than 71 pitches in a start. Jordan Montgomery has been shaky in his four starts, and J.A. Happ has yielded nine runs in 12 2/3 frames with more walks (10) than strikeouts (6). Cole and Jonathan Loaisiga, who has thrown a total of 5 1/3 innings, are the only Yankees pitchers who have started a game this year and currently carry an ERA under 4.60.
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees are in the market for arms — both in the ‘pen and more importantly in the rotation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees could be particularly intrigued by deals that could allow them to acquire a starter and reliever in one fell swoop. Most clubs are expected to be a bit more averse than usual to parting with prospects at this year’s deadline, given the shortened amount of time they’ll control the players in 2020 and the fact that ownership groups are less willing to take on salary. The Yankees are no exception, so doubling up in a single deal makes some sense.
SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has already been in touch with the Indians, who are said to be at least “open” to offers on recently demoted right-hander Mike Clevinger. The 29-year-old has been excellent dating back to 2017 (2.97 ERA, 10.2 K/9 in 464 2/3 innings) and has two years of club control remaining beyond 2020. However, he also angered his organization by violating health-and-safety protocols and taking a flight with the club before the team learned of his actions. Clevinger was limited to 21 starts last year due to a teres major strain and an ankle injury, as well.
Elsewhere, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes that the Yankees are among the many clubs to have inquired on Mariners righty Taijuan Walker. ]Walker is among the surest bets to move between now and Monday afternoon’s deadline, so it’d be more surprising to learn that the Yankees haven’t kicked the tires, but the initial interest is still worth noting. Walker is on a one-year, $2MM deal in Seattle this season and has pitched to a flat 4.00 ERA with a 25-to-8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. Once one of MLB’s top pitching prospects, he pitched just 14 innings from 2018-19 due to injuries but has looked healthy thus far. Walker’s most recent start saw him hold the Dodgers to three runs on four hits and a walk with eight punchouts in seven innings.
There are obviously plenty of other places for the Yankees to look, but Cleveland and Seattle represent a pair of logical trade partners. If Clevinger is to move, the Indians will assuredly want immediate Major League help. They’re in second place in the AL Central and in clear win-now mode. Affordable outfield help will be paramount on the team’s wish list, as their current group has woefully underperformed. Speculatively speaking, Clint Frazier is a former top draft pick by the Indians. If Cleveland believes Miguel Andujar can play a competent left field, perhaps he’d be of interest as well. For a pitcher of Clevinger’s caliber, even with his stock down, they’d likely seek some additional prospect value rather than a straight-up swap, though. The rebuilding Mariners, meanwhile, may not be quite as insistent on adding MLB-ready help given that they’re not in the 2020 playoff picture. However, they’re beginning to see the fruits of their rebuild emerge at the big league level, so players who could help in the next year or two still seem likely to be an area of focus.
Yonny Chirinos Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
AUG. 25: Chirinos underwent successful surgery Tuesday, Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets.
AUG. 21, 2:22pm: Rays skipper Kevin Cash confirmed to reporters that Chirinos will require Tommy John surgery and likely miss all of the 2021 season as well (Twitter links via Topkin).
1:10pm: Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos landed on the IL this week due to an elbow strain, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times now reports (via Twitter) that the right-hander’s injury is not only a season-ender but will likely require Tommy John surgery. It’s a tough blow to the same first-place Rays pitching staff that just lost Brendan McKay to shoulder surgery and has been without Charlie Morton for two weeks due to shoulder inflammation. Longtime top prospect Brent Honeywell recently underwent another surgery as well.
Chirinos has quietly emerged as an important contributor for the Rays in recent seasons, pitching to a combined 3.65 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9 and a 42.8 percent ground-ball rate. That showing was expected to cement him as a member of the Rays’ starting rotation in 2020, but he’s been limited to 11 1/3 innings by a pair of IL placements due to elbow troubles.
Given the timing of the injury, it’s quite possible that Chirinos will miss the entirety of the 2021 season as well. Tommy John surgery typically requires a minimum of 12 months to recover — quite often closer to 14 months. Perhaps with a speedy recovery, he’ll emerge as a bullpen option for the Rays late next year, but getting any contribution from him at all in ’21 would be a bonus and should not be considered a given.
Fortunately for the Rays, they have their typical brand of enviable starting pitching depth from which they can draw. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough and Trevor Richards are currently making starts with Chirinos, Morton and McKay on the shelf, the the team has several other potential options to which they can turn. Former top prospect Anthony Banda is back from his own Tommy John procedure and working in long relief at the moment. Either he or fellow southpaw Jalen Beeks could conceivably be stretched out to help patch things over. At the alternate training site, well-regarded prospects Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan loom as options as well.
Of course, with the Rays in first place and the Aug. 31 trade deadline looming, the possibility off augmenting the staff with someone not currently in the organization can’t be ruled out. The Rays are considered to have the best minor league system in baseball, so they should have no trouble putting together an alluring package for any of the names that figure to be available. Speculatively speaking, that list could include the likes of Lance Lynn, Dylan Bundy, Taijuan Walker and Kevin Gausman, among numerous others.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Braves Promote Ian Anderson, Activate Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of top pitching prospect Ian Anderson and reinstated outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. from the injured list. Anderson will make his Major League debut and start tonight’s game. In a pair of corresponding moves, right-hander Touki Toussaint and catcher Alex Jackson were optioned to Atlanta’s alternate training site.
Anderson, 22, was the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2016 and has steadily ranked among the game’s 50 or so best prospects over the past three years. He spent the 2019 season with the Braves’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 3.38 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 44 percent grounder rate. Like so many pitchers, Anderson was blown up in the explosive offensive setting in Triple-A last year, surrendering five homers in 24 2/3 frames. However, he only yielded eight big flies in 111 innings of Double-A work.
Scouting reports on Anderson peg him as more of a mid-rotation starter than a frontline ace. His fastball climbs to 96 mph, and Anderson garners praise for a plus curveball and a changeup that’s a bit behind that offering, though all three are considered above-average pitches.
Given the considerable rotation woes they’ve experienced in 2020, there’s some pressure on Anderson to put forth a strong debut effort. It’s not exactly fair to put such lofty expectations on a young prospect, but Atlanta has lost Mike Soroka (torn Achilles), Cole Hamels (triceps tendinitis), Felix Hernandez (opted out of 2020) and Mike Foltynewicz (outrighted after his fastball velocity dipped 6 mph) from its expected early-season rotation. Sean Newcomb, meanwhile, was optioned to the alternate site after surrendering 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. Kyle Wright and Toussaint both posted underwhelming numbers in four starts apiece as well. The Braves have recently leaned on swingman Josh Tomlin and waiver claim Robbie Erlin to start games for them.
The Braves waited on Anderson long enough that he’ll miss out on Super Two status and the opportunity to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2020. As such, even if he’s in the big leagues for good, Anderson won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2023 season and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season. Future optional assignments could further impact those timelines, of course, though the organization surely hopes that he pitches his way into a permanent rotation spot.
The return of Acuna is obviously a major boon for the Braves as well. He’s missed the past 10 days due to a left wrist injury but had rebounded from a slow start to boost his line to .258/.372/.515 at the time of his IL placement. In 10 August games, Acuna was hitting .364/.488/.818 with four homers and three doubles.
Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip
Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.
Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.
But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.
It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.
Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.
Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.
“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.
Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.
None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.
Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.
Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.
That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.
There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.