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Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Astros are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Castro, the tenth overall pick in 2008, put together a breakout campaign this year with 18 home runs, a .350 on-base percentage, and an All-Star nod.  The Astros could look into a team-friendly extension.  Three catchers in Castro's service class have signed three-year deals in the $8-9MM range, though two of them were in 2010.

Crowe, drafted 14th overall by the Indians in '05, signed a minor league deal with the Astros last November.  His contract was purchased in May, but he missed over two months with a shoulder injury.  The 29-year-old outfielder did not impress with the bat, and he received regular playing time with 103 plate appearances in September.  In mid-September, Crowe told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune, "I want to be back next year. I think I'll be back, but we'll see it goes."  While Crowe is a candidate to be non-tendered, he could re-sign on a minor league deal if that happens.

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop.  The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

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Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011.  He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage.  He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits.  A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008.  He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08.  Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs.  Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus.  He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014.  As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011.  In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season.  It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL.  Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances.  Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst.  Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable.  From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs.  His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary.  Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached.  It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan.  He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions.  Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it.  His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay.  Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him.  In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs.  Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher.  Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits.  Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves.  Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick?  The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years.  The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley.  Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so.  ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year.  The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so.  Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cubs are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency.  Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare.  Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory.  If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.

Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two.  Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.

We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare.  The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut.  Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.

Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year.  However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season.  A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup.  The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter.  McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Mets are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.

Much has been written about Davis, who projects for a modest $375K raise after a lost season.  Earlier this month, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com wrote that the team is giving no consideration to non-tendering Davis, though a trade is possible.  Davis, 27 in March, hit 32 home runs in 2012 and would appeal to many teams as a buy-low candidate given a weak free agent market for first basemen.  Rubin has also written about the possibility of the Mets keeping Davis and trading or optioning Duda.

Murphy, Gee, and Parnell had fine seasons for the Mets, and will be bargains at their arbitration salaries.  After leading the NL in stolen bases, Young's roster spot is safe. 

Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner picked up the bulk of the starts at shortstop this year, with Turner backing up at other spots as well.  Tejada, whose season ended with a broken leg, has frustrated the Mets with his attitude and work ethic, as outlined in this article from Jim Baumbach of Newsday.  It does not seem the Mets want to give up on him with a non-tender, but a trade seems possible if they find a better option to start at shortstop.  Given their small salaries, it's possible Quintanilla and Turner both return in backup roles.

Atchison and Baxter failed to impress this year, and there's a good chance they're non-tendered in December.

Trades could thin this group, but if the Mets tender contracts to Murphy, Davis, Gee, Parnell, Young, Duda, Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner, they're looking at an estimated $22.3MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

Josh Johnson Has Elbow Surgery; Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR.  Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year.  No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament.  Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason.  His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue.  He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer.  Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz

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Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label.  He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.  His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.

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Strengths/Pros

Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454).  Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters.  On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran.  He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time.  FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez.  Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.

How about 2013?  Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher.  And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months.  A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.

Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.

A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign.  Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.

Weaknesses/Cons

As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms.  Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year?  One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training.  It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year.  Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January.  His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.

On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.

Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average.  Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so.  A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.

Personal

Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos.  He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.

Market

Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market.  Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again.  According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back.  He knows we'd like to bring him back."  The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies.  Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense.  They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference.  If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.

Expected Contract

Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years.  According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM.  Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career.  Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal.  I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal.  Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal.  Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass.  In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Miami Marlins

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Marlins kick off our series for 2014.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.

Even at less than $5MM, Stanton projects as the Marlins' highest-paid player in 2014.  If they decide to trade him this winter, it won't be because they can't afford the slugger, who remains under control through 2016.  Cishek, who projects to go through arbitration four times as a Super Two, gets a solid first-time salary in large part due to 52 career saves.

Slowey won a rotation spot out of spring training after signing a minor league deal, and looked great through his first seven starts.  By June he was sent to the bullpen, however, and in July hit the DL with a forearm strain.  He made his last appearance on July 25th.  While $1.8MM is not a terribly prohibitive salary, the Marlins may prefer other options and could non-tender Slowey by the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Ruggiano set a career-high with 472 plate appearances, but he disappointed offensively with a .222/.298/.396 line.  He could draw trade interest as a lefty-masher who can help in center field, in advance of the non-tender deadline.  Former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan initially formed the other part of a center field platoon with Ruggiano, but missed almost three months with back and calf injuries.  He logged some innings at third base upon his September return.  Coghlan hit .277/.326/.415 before his injury, and he's still cheap, which may be enough to convince the Marlins to tender him a contract.  Backup catcher Koyie Hill didn't return to the Majors until August, and is probably not long for the team's 40-man roster.

Assuming Stanton, Cishek, Morrison, Webb, Dunn, and Coghlan are retained, the Marlins are looking at an estimated $13.4MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

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A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date.  Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract.  Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

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Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power.  He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up.  Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.  

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%.  This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents.  If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in.  The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons.  He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary.  Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season.  It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN.  Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12.  These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors.  Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents.  Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%.  Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012.  Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset.  Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009.  Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends.  Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton.  With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida.  He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm.  Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage.  We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market.  The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick.  The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli.  On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox.  Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits.  Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen.  Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well.  Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko.  As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli.  Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Nate McLouth

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Outfielder Nate McLouth signed a one-year, $1.75MM deal to return to the Pirates in December 2011, with a fourth outfielder role in mind after several years of struggles in Atlanta.  He hit a low point at the end of May last year, as the Bucs released him.  McLouth quickly signed a minor league deal with the Orioles, and played 47 games for their Triple-A affiliate before earning a call back to the bigs.  At just 236 plate appearances, the sample was limited, but McLouth helped the Orioles reach the postseason and was their best hitter in the division series.

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McLouth focused on a one-year deal on the free agent market, avoiding an option year but re-signing with the Orioles for just $2MM plus incentives.  He's served as the team's primary left fielder and leadoff hitter in 2013, and has put together a solid campaign over a larger sample.

Strengths/Pros

McLouth is respectable at drawing walks, with a 9% rate this year that is a tick above average for a left fielder.  This year it has led to a .332 on-base percentage, also better than average for the position.  A left-handed hitter, McLouth hit righties pretty well this year at a .275/.346/.416 clip.

McLouth also adds value on the basepaths.  He has an 84.9% career success rate in stolen bases, and is tied for ninth in the AL with 30 swipes this year.  Among those with at least 800 plate appearances and 30 stolen base attempts since 2012, McLouth's 84% success rate ranks ninth in baseball.  More importantly, FanGraphs' baserunning statistics, which cover more than just steals, suggest McLouth has added 6.2 runs on the bases this year.  That's tied for the 11th-best baserunning contribution in the game this year.

McLouth has spent most of his time in left field the last two years, but he can handle center in a pinch and even won a somewhat controversial Gold Glove for his play there in 2008.

Overall this year, FanGraphs pegs McLouth at 2.4 wins above replacement.  That's fifth among free agent outfielders, assuming Coco Crisp's option will be exercised.  McLouth is earning about 15% of Carlos Beltran's salary, but if you agree with the penalty given to Beltran by defensive stats, the two players have been roughly equally valuable in 2013.  The free agent market still veers toward baseball card numbers, so Beltran's 24 home runs and 84 RBI will serve him well and could result in a qualifying offer.  McLouth's value is less obvious, creating a potential free agent bargain even with a raise.  And a qualifying offer will not be a factor.

Weaknesses/Cons

McLouth does not hit left-handed pitching well, with a .196/.287/.304 line since 2011.  The Orioles have benched him accordingly against some southpaws, so he's faced lefties in only 21.7% of his plate appearances this year rather than the typical 26-30%.  A team signing McLouth will need to have a right-handed hitting left fielder on hand as a platoon partner.

McLouth should be used sparingly in center field, as his defensive numbers suggest he's well below average at the position.  The average left fielder has a weighted on-base average of .317 this year, not far from McLouth's .325.  He has a little bit of pop, but doesn't fit the power profile of a left fielder.  A team might have to find power at an atypical position to compensate.  

McLouth has been worth more than two wins above replacement this year, the first time he's been worth even one full win in a season since 2009.  His sample as a productive outfielder has grown, but he has to shake off an even larger sample of being replacement level.  And this may be cherry-picking, but since a huge April, McLouth has hit just .245/.309/.382.    

Personal

Born in Michigan, Nate resides with his wife Lindsay in Knoxville, Tennessee.  McLouth is a deeply religious person who has overcome adversity in his career, as explained in this article a year ago by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.

Market

The Orioles aren't brimming with alternatives to replace McLouth, and will have to turn to the free agent and trade markets if they don't re-sign him.  Nolan Reimold has been hampered by injuries for two years, and may be non-tendered.  Prospects L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery were traded this summer, leaving Henry Urrutia as the main internal option.  Since McLouth could assume more of an above-average, oft-used fourth outfielder role, he could boost the depth of many clubs. 

Expected Contract

As a short-side platoon bat with little defensive ability, Jonny Gomes set the bar last winter with a two-year, $10MM deal.  Part-timers such as Scott Hairston, Ty Wigginton, and Jack Hannahan also received two years.  Another good example is David DeJesus, who was signed to a two-year, $10MM deal with a club option by the Cubs as an outfielder who would be benched against many southpaws.  Ultimately I think McLouth will land that same two-year, $10MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Which Players Will Receive A Qualifying Offer?

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Last offseason, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM.  At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades.  A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation.  We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy.  I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason.  Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one on the fifth day after the World Series ends this year.  In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer.  You can click here to view the results.

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