Finding A Three-Year Deal In The New Year
19 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years have already been signed this offseason, matching the high from the previous five offseasons. With Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, and Nelson Cruz still on the market, it seems likely we'll ultimately see 20 or more deals of three or more years in this 2013-14 offseason. However, if recent history is a guide, one or more of these players will be left standing without a chair.
Here's a look at the number of contracts for three or more years signed in each of the past five offseasons:
- 2012-13: 19
- 2011-12: 11
- 2010-11: 17
- 2009-10: 8
- 2008-09: 13
Please note that international free agents, typically from Japan or Cuba, have been excluded from this exercise since they often operate on different timelines than traditional free agents.
Of the 68 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years from the past five offseasons, 13 were officially signed in January or later (19.1%). Of those 13, nine were clients of the Boras Corporation, including big money players like Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Lowe. Agent Scott Boras has a reputation of waiting out the market, and it has served him well in many cases. While my early November projection of a four-year, $48MM deal for Boras client Stephen Drew seems unlikely at this point, I never viewed Kendrys Morales as likely to get a third guaranteed year. Though the current market for Drew does not seem robust, I still expect Boras to get at least three years for him.
Since the 2008-09 offseason, only four free agents not represented by Boras have received contracts of three or more years in January or later: Edwin Jackson, Nick Swisher, Jason Bay, and Milton Bradley. The deals for Jackson and Swisher were actually agreed upon prior to Christmas 2012 and announced officially on January 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Similarly, the Mets' deal with Bay was reached on December 29th, 2009. In the last five offseasons, Milton Bradley is the only non-Boras free agent to actually agree to a free agent contract of three or more years in January or later (January 5th, 2009). Bradley's deal was done by ACES.
If you're a free agent who expected at least three years at the outset of the 2013-14 offseason, and you're not represented by Boras, this trend has to be troubling. Specifically, the spotlight is on the agents for Ervin Santana (Bean Stringfellow), Matt Garza (Nez Balelo), Ubaldo Jimenez (John Courtright), and Nelson Cruz (Adam Katz). If any of these four fail to get at least three years, their agent has failed to meet expectations.
As has been widely discussed, Cruz is in a perilous situation. We don't know what offers the 33-year-old slugger has received to date, but he's tied to draft pick compensation and seems light on current suitors. Way back in October while working on Cruz's free agent profile for MLBTR, Steve Adams pitched a two-year, $26MM prediction to me and it sounded about right at the time. Enough information came out in the week following that both of us felt good about Steve's ultimate three-year, $39MM prediction.
In late November, after fellow Biogenesis-connected free agent Jhonny Peralta signed a surprisingly strong four-year, $53MM deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports heard from sources that Cruz was "said to seek about $75 million over four years." While starting negotiations at four years was a plausible tactic in November, an average annual value approaching $19MM never seemed realistic. Nearly two weeks later, on the first day of the Winter Meetings, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Rangers were comfortable with a two-year deal for Cruz, while he sought three from them. Now we're in early January, and I'd bet against Cruz getting a third year from any team. While a two-year deal may be viewed as underwhelming for Katz, it's worth noting that he doesn't control the ebb and flow of media and fan expectations, and it's possible Cruz never received a reasonable three-year offer. Katz presumably did have a strong hand in Cruz's decision to turn down the Rangers' qualifying offer in November, which will be questioned if the outfielder falls short of Steve Adams' original guess of two years and $26MM.
There's a good reason why Santana, Garza, and Jimenez remain unsigned, and his name is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka outranked all three in my top 50 free agents rankings published November 4th, and factors related to the revised Japanese posting system delayed the 25-year-old's true entry into free agency until the day after Christmas. During the 2011-12 offseason, bids were due for Yu Darvish by December 14th, and the situation didn't stop C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle from signing strong contracts before then. It was much more cut and dry with Darvish — the Rangers were revealed as the high bidder on December 19th, and all other interested parties could move on. With Tanaka, it seems likely more than 20 teams pledged the newly-capped posting fee of $20MM, paid only by the club that signs the pitcher after a standard free agent free-for-all. The process does have an end in sight, with a January 24th deadline in place.
Back in 2011, the Angels and Marlins had not been connected to Darvish prior to their signings of Wilson and Buehrle. Conversely, Tanaka seems to be Plan A for many teams, and the would-be contenders that miss out on him probably will turn to Santana, Garza, and Jimenez. The Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, and Mariners can't all get Tanaka, and it's possible none of them do, so demand could be strong for the Plan B trio even as the calendar turns to February. Santana and Garza were expected to easily exceed Ricky Nolasco's four-year, $49MM deal (agreed to prior to Thanksgiving), while Jimenez seemed to have a good shot at a similar contract. I'm sure their agents are unhappy about the way things have unfolded, and there's always a chance the bottom drops out on one of the three pitchers as budgets become settled and we approach time for pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February.
In the end, there's room for good starting pitching on most teams, plus Tanaka could sign before January 24th. I still expect Santana, Garza, and Jimenez to receive deals of three or more years, even though there's no precedent from the last five offseasons.
Free Agent Regulars Hard To Find
33 players from MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list have signed, and with ample time remaining in the offseason, regulars are difficult to come by at most positions. Let's take a closer look.
- At catcher, Brian McCann, Carlos Ruiz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro have found homes with contracts worth at least $8MM. Additionally, the Rangers have assembled their tandem behind the dish by re-signing Geovany Soto and adding J.P. Arencibia. No starting catchers remain in free agency. Cuban catcher Yenier Bello will likely become a free agent soon, but it's unclear whether any teams view him as a potential regular.
- At first base, Jose Abreu, Mike Napoli, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, and Corey Hart have signed. The key remaining free agent here is Kendrys Morales, who has draft pick compensation attached and has not played 500 innings at first base since 2009. Though the draft pick may continue to scare teams off, there is certainly a price at which some should be willing to surrender one to sign Morales. The idea of the Scott Boras client as a regular first baseman is dicey, though. Players like Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, and Casey McGehee are imperfect solutions as regular first basemen, but they at least merit consideration.
- At second base, Robinson Cano, Omar Infante, Alexander Guerrero, Rafael Furcal, and Mark Ellis are off the board, as well as Kelly Johnson, Willie Bloomquist, Skip Schumaker, and Nick Punto. 36-year-old Brian Roberts looks like the closest thing to a regular on the free agent market, and he hasn't played 80 games since '09.
- At shortstop, Derek Jeter never reached free agency, and the Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta for $53MM. Another Boras client with draft pick compensation attached, Stephen Drew, remains unsigned. If Morales and Drew wind up with disappointing contracts, expect Boras to ramp up his public disgust with the qualifying offer system. One wild card at shortstop is Cuban Aledmys Diaz, who will be eligible to sign as of February 19th. Another Cuban name to watch is the defensive-minded Erisbel Arruebarruena.
- At third base, Juan Uribe resembled a regular, and he has re-signed with the Dodgers. Young might be considered a possible regular at third base after tallying almost 900 innings there in 2013. McGehee, Youkilis, and Reynolds could be options for some teams to play semi-regularly at the hot corner, as well as Eric Chavez.
- We won't list all the corner outfielders who have signed, but teams seeking a starter in right or left field do have options in free agency. Shin-Soo Choo and Nelson Cruz are still looking for homes and are viewed as difference-makers. Raul Ibanez hit 29 home runs and played over 800 innings in left field, so he might be viewed as a regular corner option by some teams.
- Top center field option Jacoby Ellsbury has signed. While Choo played center in 2013, most teams view him as a corner guy. A healthy Franklin Gutierrez could re-emerge as a regular in center field, but that seems like a long shot.
- Among DH options, we have Morales and Ibanez. We heard last month Lance Berkman is leaning toward retirement, though nothing is official.
- In terms of clear regulars, the current free agent market features just five players: one shortstop in Drew, two corner outfielders in Choo and Cruz, and two DH options in Morales and Ibanez.
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12 Teams In On Jason Hammel
12 teams are currently in on free agent righty Jason Hammel, MLBTR has learned. Though he has yet to receive an offer, teams have discussed one-year concepts so far. There is a sense that three guaranteed years would garner serious consideration, but one year could be preferable to two.
Essentially, Hammel could be on the Scott Feldman plan. Feldman took a one-year, $6MM deal from the Cubs in November of 2012, pitched well and was traded midseason, and recently landed a three-year, $30MM deal from the Astros. The Astros still seem a logical fit for Hammel this winter even after signing Feldman, while the Indians have recently been connected.
Hammel, 31, scuffled in 2013 after a strong but abbreviated 2012 campaign for Baltimore. He earned the Orioles' Opening Day nod this year, but hit the DL in late July with inflammation in his ulnar nerve. After a cortisone injection, he returned in September, spending some time in the bullpen. Overall, he pitched to a 4.97 ERA in 139 1/3 frames, seeing his strikeout and groundball rates dip while his walk and home run rates spiked.
More Than 15 Teams Interested In Andrew Bailey
More than 15 teams have called to express interest in free agent reliever Andrew Bailey, MLBTR has learned. The 29-year-old had season-ending shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder in July, and the Red Sox declined to tender him a contract earlier this month. Barring setbacks, he is expected to be Major League game ready by mid-May.
Bailey burst onto the scene in 2009, saving 26 games with a 1.84 ERA for the Athletics and winning the Rookie of the Year award. He made the All-Star team in 2009 and '10, though in 2010 he missed nearly a month with an intercostal strain. Bailey also had elbow surgery in late September that year. In 2011 he was injured in a spring training game, making his season debut on May 29th after recovering from a forearm strain. Bailey had thumb surgery in April 2012, making his season debut in mid-August.
Bailey hasn't had a completely healthy season since his rookie year. However, he still averages the same 94 miles per hour on his fastball he did then, and aside from a recent flyball tilt and a slip in control, Bailey has continued to show good skills in his limited mound time.
Astros Sign Chad Qualls
The Astros have brought reliever Chad Qualls back to Houston with a two-year deal with a club option for 2016, the team announced in a press release. The vet gets $6MM over the first two years with a potential $3.5MM for the option season, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
Qualls, 35, was drafted by the Astros in the second round in 2000 and was a quality set-up man for the team from 2005-07. After the '07 season he was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Jose Valverde trade, and the righty went on to pitch for the Rays, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, Pirates, and Marlins.
Qualls pitched to a 2.61 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 66 outings last season for the Marlins. The well-traveled veteran hasn't spent two consecutive seasons in the same city since 2008/09, but the multi-year pact might keep him in one place for a little while longer.
The Astros have shown a willingness to take a step forward early on in the offseason, striking a three-year, $30MM deal with Scott Feldman and trading for Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler earlier this week.
For his career, Qualls owns a 3.79 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 across ten big league seasons. Qualls is represented by Jim Murray of Excel Sports Management, according to the MLBTR Agency Database.
Dodgers Re-Sign Brian Wilson
SATURDAY: The Dodgers officially announced Wilson's signing via press release.
THURSDAY, 9:19pm: Wilson has passed his physical, so the deal is now official, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweets.
1:39pm: The Dodgers have reached an agreement with reliever Brian Wilson, tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown. It's a one-year, $10MM deal with a second year player option. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the option's value is $9MM, meaning that Wilson is guaranteed at least $19MM on this two-year pact. Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that Wilson has another $700K of incentives built into each year of the deal.
Though Wilson will be receiving closer money from the Dodgers, he's fine with setting up Kenley Jansen if that's how it works out, notes Brown. Paying Wilson closer money can be offset by the fact that Jansen will be paid more like a setup man, as he projects to earn $4.8MM in arbitration this offseason, per MLBTR's Matt Swartz.
Wilson signed a $1MM, Major League contract with the Dodgers on July 30th last year after a long recovery from April 2012 Tommy John surgery. He returned in late August in dominant fashion, yielding just one run with a 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs. His strong showing put him in line for a significant payday on the free agent market, and there was widespread interest in the bearded flamethrower. The Tigers, Mariners and Rockies were among the other teams interested in Wilson.
Wilson's player option is a nice safeguard for he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group. Should he thrive in Los Angeles as he did over his brief tenure there in 2013, he will hit the open market in the 2014-15 offseason as perhaps the top closer on the free agent market, positioning himself for a significant payday entering his age-33 season. Should he fall to injury or suffer a down season, he can simply elect to take a $9MM payday and look to cash in heading into his age-34 season, which we've seen numerous relievers do. Wilson's $10MM guarantee is slightly more than the one-year, $8.5MM guarantee that MLBTR's Steve Adams pegged him for in his free agent profile of Wilson back in late October.
Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mike Napoli Talks Reach Critical Stage
11:24am: Napoli's market is picking up, and the Mariners, Marlins, Rangers and Red Sox are all involved, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Morosi adds that the Mariners have had "recent" talks with Napoli.
10:57am: Mike Napoli's free agent negotiations are at a critical stage, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says Napoli wants to remain with the Red Sox, but he has an offer from another club that Boston will need to match or exceed. Earlier, Rosenthal tweeted that the Rangers and Marlins are in on Napoli, who remains a priority for the Red Sox. The Rangers are interested even after acquiring Prince Fielder, which is seemingly made possible by the designated hitter spot.
Napoli was one of 13 players to receive a qualifying offer in November, so signing him will require forfeiture of a draft pick for teams other than the Red Sox. The 32-year-old switched to first base full-time in 2013 for Boston, hitting .259/.360/.482 in 578 plate appearances and playing in the postseason for the sixth time in eight seasons. Last offseason, Napoli's three-year, $39MM deal with the Red Sox was renegotiated down to a one-year, $5MM guarantee after his physical revealed a degenerative hip condition. With Curtis Granderson receiving four guaranteed years today from the Mets, I think Napoli has a good case for the same.
Breaking Down The Tigers’ Bullpen Situation
In signing Joe Nathan to a two-year, $20MM deal this week, the Tigers secured the best reliever on the free agent market at only 77% of the amount I projected in mid-October. There's a significant age difference between the two relievers, but I'd rather have Nathan at two years and $20MM than Joe Smith at three years and $15.75MM. The way Nathan spoke about focusing on the Tigers from the outset of free agency, it's possible they were able to leverage his enthusiasm to get him on a relatively reasonable deal given the typical save-related inflation.
In 2013 the Tigers' bullpen ranked 12th in the AL with a 4.01 ERA. That figure counts guys like Jose Valverde and Jeremy Bonderman, however, and the situation wasn't as dire by season's end as the ERA suggests. In the postseason, the Tigers' key guys were Joaquin Benoit, Drew Smyly, Jose Veras, Al Alburquerque, and Jose Alvarez. They lacked a good second lefty, but the core group of Benoit, Smyly, and Veras was strong in the regular season, as seen here.
The Tigers decided to move starter Doug Fister at what ESPN's Keith Law termed as "about 30 cents on the dollar" to presumably clear payroll space for Nathan (MLBTR's Jeff Todd looked at the Fister trade in depth here). That deal may have weakened the Tigers' rotation and bullpen, as the pen will lose Smyly but he probably won't be as good as Fister was in the rotation. The Tigers added a southpaw in the deal in 22-year-old Ian Krol, who has 31 innings of experience beyond the Double-A level. Lefty Phil Coke will also return to the team's bullpen after an underwhelming year.
In early November the Tigers declined Veras' $4MM club option in favor a $150K buyout, suggesting they did not value him at $3.85MM on a one-year deal. Benoit would be pricey to retain, with an outlay potentially topping Nathan's if he finds a three-year deal again.
It has been very surprising to see the Tigers take multiple cost-cutting measures. Were they not faced with this apparent restriction, they could have picked up Veras' option for the depth he provides, retained Fister, allowing Smyly to remain in the bullpen, and signed Nathan. Nathan would be replacing Benoit, a reasonable measure, and then GM Dave Dombrowski could have gone bullpen bargain shopping in January.
Keep in mind that the Tigers also saved $76MM in the Prince Fielder trade. Though we haven't seen this in recent years from the Tigers, it seems clear that most of this offseason's moves were driven by financial constraints. As surprising as that is, I can accept that no team has an unlimited amount of money to spend. But if you decide Fister is the piece you're going to move, and your bullpen needs tons of work, how do you trade him and not get back even one established, controllable reliever? As it stands, the Tigers do not have anyone reliable to slot in after Nathan, so Dombrowski will likely continue tinkering with his bullpen.
Phillies Sign Jeff Manship
The Phillies announced they've signed righty Jeff Manship to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League spring training.
Manship, 29 in January, was drafted by the Twins in the 14th round in 2006 out of Notre Dame, signing an over-slot deal as a Tommy John survivor. He tallied 85 2/3 innings with the Twins from 2009-12, posting a 6.20 ERA mostly as a reliever. Several years ago, Baseball America suggested Manship's "average stuff and fringy command" would limit him to middle relief.
For the Rockies in 2013, Manship posted a 7.04 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9, and 45.4% groundball rate in 30 2/3 innings. He tallied another 104 frames in Triple-A.