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Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The White Sox are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

De Aza quietly established career-highs for playing time and home runs, mainly as Chicago's center fielder.  The Sox haven't locked up an arbitration eligible position player since Alexei Ramirez after the 2010 season, but exploring an affordable multiyear deal with De Aza might make sense.  Three years and around $15MM could work, if the Sox believe the 29-year-old will continue to produce.

Beckham had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in April, returning to the Majors on June 3rd and hitting .305/.341/.419 in 180 plate appearances through July.  Talk of a breakout season was quieted when the 27-year-old went on to hit .227/.304/.335 thereafter.  Though a trade is possible for the disappointing second baseman, there's a good chance the Sox stick with him for 2014.  Beckham may be pushed by Leury Garcia and Marcus Semien next year, but could also become more important if shortstop Alexei Ramirez is dealt.

Viciedo is in a similar spot after a disappointing oblique strain-shortened season.  Unlike Beckham, he finished strong with a .291/.333/.470 line over the season's final three months.  He's probably penciled in to begin next year as the starting left fielder.  Our salary projection model didn't know what to do with Viciedo, as he was on a Major League deal from 2009-12 and earned $2.8MM in 2013 despite not yet being eligible for arbitration.  In reality I think he'll get some kind of raise for 2014.

Given a crack at the team's starting catcher job after the departure of A.J. Pierzynski, Flowers limped to a .195/.247/.355 line in 275 plate appearances.  He's cheap enough and catching is in short enough supply that some team may be willing to tender him a contract for $1MM, while the Sox have Josh Phegley as another option and could explore free agency.  September shoulder surgery further depresses Flowers' value, and a non-tender is possible.

The Sox added Purcey on a minor league deal in November, and the hard-throwing southpaw joined the big league club in July after a strong Triple-A showing.  Though he posted a fine 2.13 ERA in 25 1/3 innings for the Sox, his career-long control problems continued.  A UCL strain ended his season in September.  With a projected salary just above the league minimum, there's little harm in tendering him a contract, unless the Sox prefer to keep the roster spot open for now and try to bring him back on a minor league deal.

It's fairly safe to project a commitment around $11MM for De Aza, Beckham, and Viciedo.  Flowers and Purcey are more of a gray area, but won't cost much if retained. 

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Padres are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

After a disappointing season that made 2012's power output look like the outlier, Headley projects to receive a small raise through arbitration as he enters his contract year.  Mutual interest in an extension remains, Headley told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in September.  Crasnick suggested Alex Gordon's five-year, $50MM deal as a potential comparable, a contract signed directly after Gordon's first elite season with the player two years away from free agency.  We've seen contract year extensions for Carlos Gomez (three years, $24MM), Martin Prado (four years, $40MM), and Carlos Quentin (three years, $30MM), and Headley could regret sacrificing his first crack at free agency for that type of deal.  Headley told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times in September, "I'm not actively trying to get to free agency, but trying to get what you are worth is important. It would be foolish not to at least pay attention. I'm not going to sell myself short."  I think if Headley can't get close to the five-year, $85MM range of the Andre Ethier deal, he'll hold off and risk a potential trade now or in July.

With Kennedy, Stults, Cashner, Ross, and Richard, the Padres have an entire rotation eligible for arbitration.  After undergoing shoulder surgery in mid-July, expect Richard to be non-tendered, even without a raise in the cards.  It's possible the Padres could look to bring him back on a much cheaper deal.  The other four are secure, with newly-acquired workhorse Kennedy projecting for the largest salary.  As a Boras Corporation client coming off a 4.91 ERA season, I don't expect him to sign an extension.  Ross, acquired from the Athletics a year ago, posted a sparkling 3.06 ERA in 16 starts but may not have done enough in his career to justify an extension.

Stults and Cashner are a study in contrast: the soft-tossing, 33-year-old former journeyman southpaw, and the hard-throwing 27-year-old former first round draft pick.  Stults led the Padres in innings this year and would probably jump at a multiyear guarantee.  Cashner had a breakout, fully healthy year, logging a 3.04 ERA in 26 starts after joining the rotation in late April.  With only 286 1/3 career innings, he's best compared to pitchers with less than three years of service, making five years and less than $30MM a possibility if both sides are thinking long-term.

Gregerson logged another sub-3.00 ERA season, showing a level of durability and consistency rarely found in a reliever.  The market suggests a three-year deal in the $15-16MM deal range, though the Padres could consider trading him for a significant return if they'd prefer not to go long-term.  After beginning the season in the minors, Stauffer fell short of six years of Major League service time.  He should be retained after a solid campaign as a long reliever.

Cabrera earned his first All-Star nod from Giants manager Bruce Bochy, though it was tainted by the Biogenesis investigation.  At the All-Star game, Cabrera maintained his innocence, which was ultimately revealed as a lie the following month when he accepted a 50-game suspension and apologized.  It would be a difficult spot for the Padres to lock him up, plus he's a Boras client anyway.

Blanks set a career high with 308 plate appearances, including five home runs and 18 RBI in June.  He later missed significant time with an Achilles injury.  Guzman started over 60 games for the 2013 Padres with ugly results, failing to mash lefties as he did from 2011-12.  Both are right-handed hitters who can handle first base and the outfield corners.  They also both project to earn around a million bucks.  If the Padres' projected starters are healthy, they may only have room for one of Blanks and Guzman, making a trade possible.  As the younger of the two, Blanks seems more likely to stay.

Assuming Headley, Kennedy, Gregerson, Stults, Cashner, Cabrera, Guzman, Ross, Blanks, and Stauffer are tendered contracts, the Padres are looking at an estimated $33.1MM for ten arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rockies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Lopez took a step back in 2013, but at $2.2MM the Rockies are still expected to retain him.  Nicasio made 31 starts this year, and while he wasn't great, he figures to stick around.  Outman and Herrera both had solid campaigns and are secure.

Boggs began the season as the Cardinals' interim closer in the wake of Jason Motte's injury, but was optioned to Triple-A by May.  He bounced up and down after that, and was traded to the Rockies in July for international bonus money. Boggs struggled at Triple-A for the Rockies and made only nine appearances with the big club.  "I would like for that to be here because I feel it’s a good fit," Boggs said of the Rockies and returning to a late inning role, to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in September.  Boggs is no sure thing to be tendered, but given his low projected salary and past success, I lean toward the Rockies giving him another look next year.

Corpas, 30, has served as the Rockies' closer at various times in his career and found his way back to the organization on a minor league deal in January.  He wound up making 31 appearances for the big club, but will probably be deemed expendable.

Assuming Lopez, Nicasio, Boggs, Outman, and Herrera are tendered contracts, the Rockies are looking at an estimated $8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Reds Fire Dusty Baker

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10:55am: Baker was fired after he stood up for hitting coach Brook Jacoby, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Jocketty informed Baker that he was planning on firing Jacoby, to which Baker replied, "If want to fire someone, fire me," as he felt it was unfair for blame to fall on Jacoby.

Baker said he felt he was doing what was right by defending Jacoby and would like to continue his managerial career elsewhere, adds Heyman. The past several days have been difficult, Baker conceded, as he's also been receiving hate mail from angry fans.

9:45am: The Reds have confirmed the move via press release. Within the release, GM Walt Jocketty offers the following statement:

"This was a very difficult decision to make. Dusty played an important role in the recent success of this organization, and we thank him for his contributions during his time here. We feel a change is necessary, however, if we are to continue to move the organization forward."

9:02am: Baker was fired, writes ESPN's Buster Olney in his daily Insider-only column. Olney explains that club executives felt the team was steeped with Major League talent and expected a deep postseason run with a chance at a championship, not a quick exit in a one-game Wild Card playoff. According to Olney, there's a sense from the top of the organization that a clubhouse shake-up was needed.

Earlier this morning, Olney tweeted that the front office "was seething" after the team's loss to the Pirates, prompting the change.

7:33am: Dusty Baker is out as Reds manager, according to Ben Walker of the Associated Press.  The Reds will announce today that Baker has been replaced, though it is currently unclear whether he was fired or he resigned. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Baker had one year and roughly $3.5MM remaining on his contract.

Baker, 64, has been managing the Reds for the past six seasons, three of which have resulted in playoff berths. His record since taking over as Cincinnati's manager is 509-463. That .524 winning percentage is on par with his career percentage of .526. Baker is a three-time NL Manager of the Year and led the 2002 Giants to the National League pennant.

Earlier in the week, the Reds were bounced from the Wild Card playoff game by the Pirates, but general manager Walt Jocketty was quick to tell reporters, including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that he hadn't considered firing Baker: “I don’t think so,” Jocketty said. “He’s signed for another year.” That seems to suggest a resignation, though Reds ownership could have had a different view on Baker than Jocketty and brought about the change.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

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The playoffs are underway, and it's time for our last 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings in advance of our Top 50 Free Agents list in late October.  Our previous installment was published August 6th.  Though Hunter Pence was only able to snag an honorable mention at that point, he still signed a five-year, $90MM deal in late September.  Our tenth-ranked player, Chase Utley, signed a two-year, $27MM extension with three vesting options.  You can check out our full list of free agents here.

1.  Robinson Cano.  On September 26th, ESPN's Buster Olney reported Cano was seeking a ten-year contract worth approximately $305MM, which would be the largest in baseball history.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested $310MM.  Olney wrote, "Some friends of Cano have a sense that Cano will take the biggest offer that he receives this winter, regardless of whether it comes from the Yankees or some other team."  According to Sherman, the Yankees topped out in spring negotiations at seven years and less than $170MM.  GM Brian Cashman recently told reporters the Yankees have made or will make a significant offer, but that Cano will be given the chance to entertain offers from other teams.   If it's true that the Dodgers will sit out the bidding, it's too early to determine which clubs will give the Yankees a run for their money and offer more than $200MM. 

With another brilliant campaign, Cano never slipped from the top spot on this list.  In April, it was revealed Cano had left the Boras Corporation for Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA and rapper Jay Z.  It appears Van Wagenen will take lead on Cano's negotiations, but Jay Z has been certified as an agent.

2.  Jacoby Ellsbury.  Boras still has Ellsbury, who he seemed to compare to an aircraft carrier in a conversation with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in early September.  Boras went to great lengths explaining why Ellsbury is better than Carl Crawford, suggesting he would seek more than the seven-year, $142MM deal Crawford signed after the 2010 season.  Of course, the numbers floated in September are usually much higher than the final price.  Ellsbury missed three weeks in September due to a foot injury, but appears fine for the playoffs.

3.  Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo, another Boras client, ranked fourth in all of baseball with a .423 on-base percentage.  Heyman discussed at length whether $100MM is possible, with Boras of course implying it's a low estimate.  Reaching that benchmark will depend on Boras getting a sixth year for his client; keep in mind Michael Bourn had to settle for four last winter.

4.  Brian McCann.  McCann's free agent profile can be found here, with my prediction of a five-year, $80MM contract.

5.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka leaps onto the list as a contender for the best available starting pitcher.  Not technically a free agent, Tanaka will have to be posted by his Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles.  He'll play next year at age 25, coming off a 1.24 ERA in 181 innings for Rakuten.

6.  Ervin Santana.  Santana will be vying for a fifth year, and some team may find it justified given past comparables like C.J. Wilson.  He will, however, cost a draft pick to sign after posting a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings.

7.  Matt Garza.  Garza posted a 4.89 ERA in his final 11 starts.  His peripheral stats were not bad aside from home runs and hits allowed, but the rough finish takes some of the shine off his free agency.  He did make all his starts since his May 21st season debut, and was working around 95 miles per hour in his last one.  Plus, unlike Santana, Garza is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won't cost a draft pick.  A five-year contract now seems optimistic for Garza, however.

8.  Hiroki Kuroda.  Kuroda's free agent profile can be found here, in which MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted a one-year, $16MM deal.   If he doesn't retire, he'll pitch next year at 38, and age hasn't slowed him down yet.

9.  A.J. Burnett.  Burnett is still considering retiring after the season, even though he's at the top of his game and kicked off the NLDS for the Pirates against the Cardinals yesterday (albeit poorly).  The Pirates have strong interest in retaining him, and Burnett doesn't seem to want to play anywhere else.

10.  Mike Napoli.  Napoli's free agent profile can be found here, in which I predicted a three-year, $42MM deal.  He's one of the most powerful free agent hitters.

Carlos Beltran, Josh Johnson, Nelson Cruz, and Tim Lincecum have previously occupied spots in the top ten, while Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, Bartolo Colon, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Kazmir, Marlon Byrd, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Omar Infante, Kendrys Morales, and Stephen Drew have also positioned themselves well for free agency.  Cuban free agent Jose Abreu merits consideration among our top 20 free agents.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Phillies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Revere's season ended on July 13th with a broken foot, but the 25-year-old center fielder is secure for next year.  Bastardo's season was cut short by a Biogenesis suspension, but he's expected to play in winter ball and will be tendered a contract for next year.  Frandsen trailed off significantly over the season's final three months, but is cheap enough to retain as a reserve.

Regarding Kendrick, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on Monday, "I don't know why people are asking about that.  We will [bring him back]," according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  People were probably asking because as a guy with a 4.70 ERA, Kendrick's projected salary isn't much of a bargain.  Plus, he posted a 6.04 ERA over his final 17 starts and was shut down in September with a shoulder injury.

Lannan is likely to be cut loose, as a knee injury cost him more than half the season and he wasn't effective otherwise.  Mayberry is a "definite non-tender candidate," wrote Gelb yesterday, as the Phillies may slide Darin Ruf into his fourth outfielder role.  Mayberry, acquired by the Phillies in November '08, hit .227/.286/.391 this year.  Bernadina will likely be gone, after a lackluster showing in 27 games.  I expect Wells to be cut loose also.

If the Phillies tender contracts to Kendrick, Bastardo, Revere, and Frandsen, they'll be looking at an estimated $11.4MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Toronto Blue Jays

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Blue Jays are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

With big-time power and a solid .276 batting average, Rasmus finally showed the star potential that compelled the Blue Jays to trade for him in 2011, though an oblique strain knocked him out for a month.  His career-worst strikeout 29.5% rate portends a return to his low average days, but Rasmus will remain a major asset in center field.  2014 will be his contract year, and he won't turn 28 until August.  With free agency so close, it will be difficult to extend Rasmus for less than B.J. Upton money.

In his first full season in the bullpen, Cecil posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings and made the All-Star team.  His season ended a little early with an elbow injury.  The Jays have been willing to do small multiyear deals with players like this in the past, so if the injury is minor that could be possible with Cecil.

Arencibia continued to hit home runs, many of them in April.  However, his .227 on-base percentage was the worst for a player with at least 400 plate appearances since Rob Picciolo's .218 mark as a rookie shortstop for the A's in 1977.  FanGraphs suggests Arencibia was below replacement level overall this year, but it still seems someone would pick him up via trade prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Rogers moved into the Jays' rotation in June, posting a 4.89 ERA in 20 starts.  The hard-throwing 28-year-old righty is cheap enough to retain as a swingman.

Assuming Rasmus, Arencibia, Rogers, and Cecil are tendered contracts, the Blue Jays are looking at an estimated $11.2MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Projected Super Two Cutoff Update

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OCTOBER 3rd: Galla tells MLBTR that a few roster moves since CAA's last projection have caused the cutoff to increase by one day to 2.122.  That means Charlie Furbush will not be arbitration eligible, as he's one day short.

SEPTEMBER 5th: Back in April, we learned that based on the research of Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball, the projected Super Two cutoff after the 2013 season was two years and 119 days (written as 2.119).  Now, Galla tells MLBTR that the projection as rosters sit is 2.121.  Likely Super Two players such as Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, and Mike Minor remain unaffected by the change, but those two days matter quite a bit for players on the borderline.  As we mentioned in April, Lance Lynn (2.119) and Felix Doubront (2.120) are very close to the projected cutoff.  Should they fall short of Super Two status, their 2014 salaries will remain a bit above $500K, costing them millions.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.  MLBTR will have much more on each team's arbitration eligible players in the coming weeks, including Matt Swartz's salary projections.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

  • 2012: 2.139
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Mariners are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Smoak's .238/.334/.412 line was about average for a first baseman, which was a big step forward after he'd hit .223/.306/.377 in over 1,400 prior plate appearances.  He struggled mightily against lefties and hasn't shown enough to justify a multiyear extension, but the 26-year-old clearly has a spot on next year's club.  Saunders, also 26 with poor production against southpaws, took a slight step back in 2013.  Even if he's just a fourth outfielder, his first-time arbitration salary is justified.

Charlie Furbush, previously estimated as a Super Two player, appears to fall one day short of the necessary amount of service time.

Assuming Smoak and Saunders are tendered contracts, the Mariners are looking at an estimated $4.8MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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After another rebuilding year in 2013, the Cubs will attempt to change the conversation with a new manager and perhaps veteran additions to fill some of the team's many weak spots until top prospects are ready.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis)

Free Agents

2014 Payroll Obligations For Former Players

The Cubs haven't had a .500 record since 2009, way back when Kevin Gregg was their closer (the first time).  The team's current Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer/Jason McLeod braintrust was hired after the 2011 season.  While they would tell you every season counts, the team has yet to take a win-now approach during the Epstein regime, even with $86MM in new free agent commitments last winter.  For the second consecutive summer, the team's brass shipped out veterans with trade value, including newly-signed ones.

The new regime's record is 127-197, so recently-fired manager Dale Sveum presided over what should be the worst of times.  The Cubs will soon hire their fourth manager in five seasons, prioritizing "managerial or other on-field leadership experience" and "expertise developing young talent."  Joe Girardi, Yankees manager since 2008 and a former Cubs player and Illinois native, has a contract that expires at the end of the month.  Cubs ownership covets him and is poised to offer $4MM or more per season, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, though they've not yet been granted permission to speak to him and the Yankees made an offer to retain him.  Hiring Girardi would be a sign the team is getting serious about trying to win, as he would not likely be thrilled taking on a team lacking Major League talent.  Manny Acta, Sandy Alomar Jr., A.J. Hinch, and Dave Martinez are other possible candidates, reports Wittenmyer.

In the statement regarding Sveum's firing, Epstein acknowledged the Cubs' biggest issue as a "shortage of talent at the major league level."  This year Cubs position players accounted for just 16.9 wins above replacement, 21st in baseball.  In terms of players controlled beyond this year who provided as least two wins, the list is short: catcher Welington Castillo and part-time third baseman Luis Valbuena.

Notably absent are the Cubs' two biggest Major League building blocks, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Both players are signed through 2019.  Castro took a big step backward with the bat, hitting .245/.284/.347.  He may never draw walks, but the Cubs will need him to at least return to making better contact and showing moderate power, even if he doesn't develop into a star.  When Castro signed his $60MM extension, he had almost 1,800 big league plate appearances.  Rizzo, however, had fewer than 700.  The only other player to receive $40MM+ with that short of a big league track record is Ryan Braun in 2008.  Playing his first full season this year, Rizzo failed to reach the offensive production of an average first baseman.

The Cubs figure to show patience toward Castro and Rizzo into 2014, while hoping for continued growth from Castillo.  In Javier Baez, however, Castro has one of the game's best prospects pushing him.  Baez may be ready for Major League action by next summer, if he cleans up his defense and perhaps cuts down on his strikeouts.  The best case scenario is a Castro-Baez middle infield tandem, while third base is an option for Baez as well.  Kris Bryant, drafted second overall by the Cubs in June, could also be ready next year, and projects for third base or right field.  Furthering the Cubs' infield depth are Mike Olt, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Christian Villanueva, acquired in the Ryan Dempster deal, and Arismendy Alcantara.  It's been a lost year for Olt, but overall, the Cubs' infield depth is strong.  Second base may be the biggest short-term need, particularly if Barney is traded or non-tendered.  I don't expect the Cubs to get involved on Robinson Cano, but Omar Infante could be a consideration.  After hitting 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances, Donnie Murphy may have earned himself a contract for 2014 and the initial crack at the hot corner.

The Cubs have a pair of premium outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Neither is Major League ready, however, leaving only Schierholtz locked in for 2014.  Schierholtz provided cheap power against right-handed pitching this year, and perhaps the Cubs will again acquire a right-handed hitting complement like Rajai Davis, Justin Ruggiano, or Kyle Blanks.  An in-house right-handed bat, Junior Lake, could have the inside track on left field after a decent rookie showing following the trade of Alfonso Soriano.  Lake could help in center field, as could Brian Bogusevic.  Minor league signing Ryan Sweeney performed well, though he's a free agent again.  Other center field stopgaps should be explored as well, such as Davis, Ruggiano, Chris Young, and Franklin Gutierrez.  Illinois native Curtis Granderson could make some sense, but a qualifying offer and/or a three-year requirement would likely suppress interest from the Cubs.  The Cubs' long-term outfield plan seems to be in place, though that won't stop agent Scott Boras from pitching free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.  Epstein doesn't need to review Ellsbury's Boras Binder, however, after drafting him in the first round in '05 and watching him blossom into a star in Boston.

The Cubs have traded 40% of their rotation each summer under the Epstein regime, moving Paul Maholm and Dempster in 2012 and Scott Feldman and Garza this year.  Maholm was the only one not in a contract year.  The Cubs continue to wait on a potential return for Maholm, as the recovery period for Arodys Vizcaino's March 2012 Tommy John surgery has taken much longer than expected.  Jake Arrieta, a key piece in the Feldman deal with Baltimore, projects to earn a spot in next year's rotation out of spring training.  Lefty Travis Wood represented the Cubs in the All-Star game this year and has a spot locked down for 2014, as do Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson.

Last winter the Cubs imported an unprecedented four free agent starters, and the depth was needed when Scott Baker's Tommy John recovery stalled and Garza and Feldman were dealt.  I don't think anyone saw the team's flirtation with Anibal Sanchez or four-year deal with Jackson coming last winter.  While Chris Rusin, Justin Grimm, or Carlos Villanueva could take the fifth starter job next year, it seems likely the Cubs will look to add pitching from outside the organization again.  That could mean another go-round with Baker, other one-year projects like Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jason Hammel, Roberto Hernandez, Dan Haren, or Phil Hughes, or multiyear commitments to Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Masahiro Tanaka.  David Price will be the prize of the trade market, though two years of control doesn't mesh well with the Cubs' timeline.

In Samardzija, the Cubs could offer up a trade chip with a 95 mile per hour fastball, fresh off a 214 strikeout season.  With a 3.34 ERA over the season's first three months, the 28-year-old appeared to be in the midst of an ace-caliber season.  Samardzija followed that with a 5.47 ERA, however, and in the end mostly replicated his 2012 season with an additional 39 innings.  On the trade market, two years of Samardzija could bring a huge haul, exceeding the well-regarded package the Cubs extracted from the Rangers to rent Garza for a few months.  First the Cubs will explore an extension, which I think could be in the range of the $80MM deals signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander four years prior.  To date, the pitcher and agents Sam Samardzija and Mark Rodgers have not shown a willingness to take a team-friendly deal, and getting closer to free agency should only strengthen their stance.

Among the team's other arbitration eligible players, the Cubs could look to sign Schierholtz or Wood to multiyear deals.  Castillo, who has two years of service, could be a candidate for a team-friendly contract.  Despite a 3.11 ERA this year, the Cubs may be best served waiting on Wood, whose skills suggest more of a 4.50 pitcher.

Even with an out of nowhere 33-save season from Gregg, the Cubs' bullpen ranked 13th in the NL with a 4.04 ERA.  Though the Cubs' Fujikawa signing went bust due to Tommy John surgery, it showed a willingness to spend to solidify the bullpen.  Arbitration eligible lefty James Russell could be a trade candidate; otherwise he'll join holdovers Blake Parker, Strop, and perhaps Grimm and Villanueva.  Hector Rondon will likely be in the mix, and if the Cubs tender a contract to September waiver claim project Daniel Bard, he could become an option as well.  The Cubs will probably bring in a veteran reliever or two from the outside, letting Gregg walk as a free agent after nearly releasing him in September over complaints he made.

Among the Cubs' free agents, aside from Sweeney and perhaps Baker, the team may entertain re-signing backup catcher Dioner Navarro.  Due to the stellar work of Castillo and Navarro, the Cubs ranked fourth in baseball with five wins above replacement at catcher.  They paid just $2.25MM for the pair, but the 29-year-old Navarro may have earned himself another shot at starting with another club.  The Cubs could add a veteran backup to replace him.

Cubs fans have patiently watched for two years as Epstein, Hoyer, McLeod and company rebuilt the team from the ground up.  Fans might allow for one more talent-stockpiling mulligan in 2014, perhaps with the reward of a Baez summer debut.  Expectations for 2015 will be huge, at which point Epstein will have two years remaining on his contract.

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