Mets Monitoring Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez
The Mets "retain an unfilled craving for a marquee outfielder," writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, and are monitoring superstars such as Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies. One Mets person told Martino "there is heat there," in regard to the team having a preliminary discussion with the Marlins about Stanton. Still, Martino is unsure whether GMs Sandy Alderson and Larry Beinfest have discussed the powerful right fielder.
To acquire four years of Stanton, the Mets would likely have to part with their two best prospects, pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis D'Arnaud. An associate of Alderson's told Martino the GM "did not have any extra attachment to those players, simply because he traded for them."
According to Martino, the Mets debated using Wheeler to get Justin Upton or Wil Myers, during the Winter Meetings. They also considered asking for the Dodgers' Andre Ethier in an R.A. Dickey deal, and this spring checked in on the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano. So, it appears the Mets' long-term interest in improving the outfield runs the gamut, from the game's best young stars to overpaid veterans. The Mets were willing to increase payroll to the $125MM range last winter for the right players, writes Martino.
Keep in mind that no deals are close, and the idea that Stanton or CarGo could become available this year is speculation.
Mariners Close To Acquiring Aaron Harang
The Mariners are close to acquiring righty Aaron Harang from the Rockies, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says the teams are working through the final details, including approval from the commissioner's office, since the Rockies will be sending cash in the deal. Rosenthal adds that the Rockies will receive a minor league right-handed reliever from the Mariners in the trade.
The Rockies acquired Harang and $4.25MM from the Dodgers for catcher Ramon Hernandez last week, and then immediately designated Harang for assignment. Harang earns $7MM this year and has a $2MM buyout after the season, and the Rockies will send money to the Mariners to cover some of that. The Rockies will have saved close to $2.5MM in the series of trades, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio, implying they're sending around $5MM to the Mariners in this trade. That would leave Seattle paying about $4MM to Harang.
Harang, 35 next month, posted a 3.61 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 179 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year. His peripheral stats from 2012 suggest an ERA close to 5.00. This isn't the Harang of his Reds glory days, when he pitched 230 innings a year with around four strikeouts for every walk. Harang will likely replace Blake Beavan in Seattle's rotation.
The Mariners and Rockies last matched up on a trade in December 2010, when Colorado acquired Jose Lopez for Chaz Roe. More recently, a pitcher jumped from the Mariners to the Rockies when Jon Garland exercised his opt-out clause to leave the Mariners in March and signed with Colorado.
Originally published April 11th, 2013 at 12:38pm.
Jered Weaver To Miss 4-6 Weeks
1:10pm: The Angels are not interested in Harang and will instead replace Weaver with Richards, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.
11:55am: Angels righty Jered Weaver is out four to six weeks with a broken left (non-pitching) elbow, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The injury was suffered Sunday night as Weaver dove away from a Mitch Moreland line drive. The Angels have since announced Weaver being placed on the DL, with righty reliever Dane De La Rosa being added and Andrew Taylor transferred to the 60-day DL.
There were already some concerns about the health of Weaver's right arm, noted Dave Cameron of FanGraphs yesterday, but losing him for a month or so will put their depth to the test.
The Angels could stretch Garrett Richards out to start, turn to Jerome Williams, or dip into Triple-A for someone like Barry Enright. Though April trades are rare, the Rockies' Aaron Harang is available and the Dodgers' Chris Capuano ought to be. The Dodgers' Ted Lilly, who has a rehab start tomorrow night, is not likely to join Capuano in the team's bullpen. He should also be on the market.
How Many Good Players Are Going Year-To-Year?
More than ever, baseball's best players are choosing the security of a multiyear deal as opposed to the higher risk and reward of going year-to-year. But exactly how many of the game's best players are currently on one-year deals?
In 2012, 115 players accumulated at least 3.0 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. 82 of them (71%) are on multi-year contracts. Some of these players have expiring multiyear deals, like Robinson Cano, and some are on short two-year deals covering just a pair of arbitration seasons, like Clayton Kershaw. But most of them are locked up, like Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, David Wright, Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, and Adrian Beltre. Of these 82 good players on multiyear deals, only 26 of them (32%) signed as free agents (counting Yu Darvish but excluding Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia). Of the 25 players worth at least five wins in 2012, only four of them (Beltre, Michael Bourn, Aramis Ramirez, and Torii Hunter) are signed to free agent contracts.
Only 33 players who were worth three wins or more in 2012 are currently going year-to-year, including the two such free agents who signed one-year deals (Hiroki Kuroda and A.J. Pierzynski). Taking out the two free agents (but including Aroldis Chapman since he can opt for arbitration when he has the service time), we're left with 31 young, good players who are currently going year-to-year. The top 15 by 2012 WAR:
- Mike Trout
- Chase Headley
- Jason Heyward
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Austin Jackson
- Ian Desmond
- David Price
- Josh Reddick
- Bryce Harper
- Max Scherzer
- Wade Miley
- Stephen Strasburg
- David Freese
- Matt Wieters
- David Murphy
Why aren't these 31 players under multiyear contracts yet? Nine of them have less than two years of big league service. While players at that service level do sign multiyear deals, teams don't have a ton of urgency since arbitration is not looming. Also, nine of the 31 players (and five of the top 14) are clients of the Boras Corporation. Boras is playing a major role in advising top young players against signing multiyear deals before free agency. Arbitration and free agency are on the decline, but not if Boras can help it.
Ranking Agencies By 2012 WAR
Which agency's players have the most MLB talent? One way of answering that question is to rank the agencies by 2012 wins above replacement (from FanGraphs). Here are the results for total 2012 WAR (please note that players with negative WAR were omitted):
- Boras Corporation: 104.4
- CAA Sports: 102.1.
- ACES: 78.8.
- SFX: 72.6.
- Wasserman Media Group: 66.5.
- Excel Sports Management: 62.4.
- The Legacy Agency: 56.0.
- Octagon: 52.1.
- MVP Sports Group: 34.3.
- LSW Baseball: 25.9.
- Beverly Hills Sports Council: 26.1.
- Frontline: 20.6.
- Reynolds Sports Management: 18.4.
- Sosnick/Cobbe: 18.1.
- Hendricks Sports: 17.4.
Some interesting information arises when we rank agencies by WAR per big league player, filtering to those with at least ten players. WAR per player:
- Excel Sports Management: 2.40.
- Boras Corporation: 2.09.
- Frontline: 2.06.
- CAA Sports: 2.04.
- LSW Baseball: 1.99.
- MVP Sports Group: 1.81.
- Octagon: 1.80.
- The Legacy Agency: 1.75.
- Moye Sports Associates: 1.68.
- Reynolds Sports Management: 1.67.
- Sosnick/Cobbe: 1.65.
- Hendricks Sports: 1.58.
- SFX: 1.51.
- ACES: 1.49.
- Wasserman Media Group: 1.41.
Beverly Hills Sports Council ranks outside the top 15, with 1.04. They had only two players who exceeded 2.0 WAR, Jason Kipnis and Ryan Ludwick. But perhaps in some cases WAR per player is deceiving, because a large agency like Boras gets dinged for having small contributions from players like Jacob Turner or Zach Britton. So, here's a listing of the number of four-win players by agency:
- Boras Corporation: 8 (Adrian Beltre, Michael Bourn, Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg).
- CAA Sports: 7 (Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Jake Peavy, Adam Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, David Freese). You'll note that CAA is credited for having Cano now, even though Boras had him in 2012.
- ACES, Excel Sports Management, The Legacy Agency: tied at 5.
Octagon and Wasserman Media Group had three each.
What have we learned? Boras still reigns supreme, in terms of depth of MLB talent and star power. CAA is very close on both fronts with the addition of Cano, though the second baseman's association with Roc Nation Sports muddies the waters a bit. ACES remains strong — in terms of three-win players, they rank behind only Boras and CAA, with nine.
MLBTR's agency database was used for this post; please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com with any corrections or omissions.
Extensions Down This Offseason
From the end of the 2012 season until present, 25 players with less than six years of Major League service time signed multiyear extensions. However, from the end of the 2011 season through April 30th, 2012, 37 such deals were signed. So, we've seen a notable decrease in extensions this offseason. During both offseasons, the average value of these arbitration year extensions has been around $28-29MM.
This offseason, arbitration eligible players signed deals later in their careers. The average service time of an extended player this offseason was right around four years, as opposed to three years and 126 days the previous winter. One notable difference is in the number of players extended with less than two years of big league service. So far this offseason we've had only one such player, Paul Goldschmidt, and he received $32MM. The previous offseason, six players signed with less than two years service: Jonathan Lucroy, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Santana, Cory Luebke, Salvador Perez, and Matt Moore. Only Bumgarner topped $21MM. Some of those deals are among the most team-friendly in baseball, so perhaps agents have begun to dissuade these players from signing so quickly for $15MM or less.
One possible reason for the apparent decline in extensions: maybe we're not done this month. Santana, Bumgarner, and Erick Aybar signed after April 9th, back in 2012. Guys will certainly sign later during the season as well, but I thought it made sense to consider April 30th to be the end of the offseason, for the purposes of this post.
MLBTR's Extension Tracker was used for this post; please check it out.
MLBTR Agency Database
Behind every multi-million dollar MLB contract, there's an agent. Ever wonder who represents your favorite players? Just check out MLBTR's agency database, which lists agencies for over 1,700 players. Agents: if you notice any errors or omissions, please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com. And if you'd really like to help, click below to see a list of 86 players for whom I still need agency information.
Seeking Late-Night Assistance For @CloserNews
@CloserNews, as the name suggests, aims to keep followers up-to-date on all happenings involving closers and late-inning relievers, mainly to help you dominate the saves category in your fantasy league. This Twitter account, which is a side project of mine, has proven successful with over 16,000 followers to date.
We are currently looking for people interested in manning @CloserNews for certain late-night games, concluding after 11pm central time. This is an unpaid position, so please apply only if you would like it on your resume or simply would enjoy being involved. If you're interested, please email closernewshelp@gmail.com with your qualifications.
Would-Be Free Agents
Remember free agents? Like good, under-30 ones without any major warts? With the proliferation of long-term extensions prior to free agency, the 2013-14 class is looking fairly weak, especially if Robinson Cano signs a new deal with the Yankees. It doesn't have to be this way. Free agency could be interesting again if more players adopted the Boras approach, which generally means reaching free agency after you accumulate six years of big league service. For the sheer offseason excitement of it, I'm rooting for Bryce Harper to bet on himself, avoid extension offers, and reach free agency as a 26-year-old. If all players took that approach, look who would be part of the upcoming free agent class:
- Corner infielders: Joey Votto, Martin Prado, Alberto Callaspo. Votto is signed through at least 2023, Prado through 2016, and Callaspo through 2014. Prado and Callaspo, both on the eve of free agency, signed extensions this year. Votto signed a year ago, receiving a ten-year, $225MM extension with a full no-trade clause. He made the right call in taking that deal.
- Middle infielders: Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar. Cabrera is signed through 2014, Ramirez through at least 2015, and Escobar has an affordable club option in the upcoming offseason. Signing as a four-plus player, I'm not sure why Cabrera was willing to give up one free agent year.
- Outfielders: Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Adam Jones, Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Carlos Gomez. Upton, Gordon, and Braun all went within the first five picks in the 2005 draft, and they could have been coveted free agents together. Instead, Upton is signed through 2015, Gordon through '15 (or '16 if he prefers), and Braun through 2020. Braun's initial eight-year, $45MM extension with the Brewers was quite team-friendly and ran through 2015, but with five years remaining on it, the team put another five years and $105MM on top. Braun will earn $18.5MM for what would have been his three arbitration years, an amount he certainly could have doubled going year-to-year. He's getting $117MM over seven free agent years, which would seem extremely light if not for the PED cloud following him. From this impressive bunch, Zobrist's deal is probably the most team-friendly: a four-year, $18MM contract with a pair of club options.
- Designated hitters: Billy Butler. The Royals will likely control Butler through 2015, snagging a pair of free agent seasons by guaranteeing him $30MM overall when he had three years service time. Even as a bat-only player, free agency would have smiled upon him at age 27.
- Starting pitchers: Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Brandon Morrow. Cueto signed a four-year deal with a club option when he had three years of service, getting the same total guarantee has Gallardo, who had less than three years. Morrow signed with four years of service, potentially giving up two free agent years, but to that point had a 4.37 career ERA and had never reached 180 innings in a season. I think the tradeoff made sense in that case.
- Relievers: Glen Perkins, Jared Burton. The Twins have some stability in their bullpen, with Perkins and Burton under control at least through 2015.
Blue Jays Claim Mauro Gomez; Designate Dave Bush
The Blue Jays claimed infielder Mauro Gomez off waivers from the Red Sox, according to a Toronto press release. The Blue Jays designated pitcher Dave Bush for assigment to open a 40-man roster spot for Gomez.
The Red Sox had designated Gomez for assignment last week to open a 40-man roster spot for Jackie Bradley, Jr. Gomez, 28, hit .310/.371/.589 with 24 home runs in 426 Triple-A plate appearances last year, playing mostly first base. He reportedly drew some interest from the Hanshin Tigers during the offseason.
Bush, 33, has logged over 1,100 innings in the bigs, and led the National League with a 4.37 K/BB ratio for the Brewers in 2006. After spending all of 2012 at Triple-A, he clawed his way back to the Majors only to suffer the indignity of allowing four homers to the Red Sox yesterday in his one appearance. Bush was the first to manage that since Brian Bass in 2009, but at least George Caster's record of six home runs allowed in a relief appearance, set in 1940, still stands.