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2011 Payrolls By Division

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 2:17pm CDT

Five days ago the Associated Press published 2011 payrolls for the 30 teams based on information sent by the clubs to the commissioner's office.  They explain:

Figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values.

$2,999,557,280 was spent in total, so the $100MM or so spent by the Rangers or Mariners is about average.  The Yankees, of course, led with a $216MM figure.  That's 4.85 times the Royals' payroll, which was the lowest at about $45MM.  Maury Brown has quality analysis of over at The Biz of Baseball.  Below I thought it'd be interesting to break down the spending by league and division.

American League: $104.7MM per team

  • AL East: $119.6MM per team
  • AL Central: $90.5MM per team
  • AL West: $103.9MM per team

National League: $95.8MM per team

  • NL East: $105.9MM per team
  • NL Central: $90.8MM per team
  • NL West: $88.5MM per team
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Quick Hits: Beltran, Corpas, Dickey, Ross

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 1:01pm CDT

Six years ago today, the Diamondbacks officially traded third baseman Troy Glaus and shortstop prospect Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for righty Miguel Batista and second baseman Orlando Hudson.  Josh Byrnes and J.P. Ricciardi were the respective GMs.  Glaus' retirement came with little fanfare despite 320 career home runs and four All-Star Game appearances.  Santos eventually found his way to the White Sox, who helped him become a successful reliever and recently traded him back to Toronto.  Batista is a 40-year-old free agent with 101 career wins to his name.  Hudson, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is a trade candidate for the Padres, the team Byrnes now heads up.  Ricciardi now serves as a special assistant to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who appears to have interest in re-signing Batista.

MLBTR was less than two months old at the time of the Glaus trade; you can read my paragraph on it here.  Back then the site was a one-man show with gray text against a black background, and Twitter did not exist.  We've come a long way!  On to today's links…

  • Carlos Beltran offered to sign with the Yankees for the same two-year, $26MM deal he ultimately signed with St. Louis, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Adds Heyman, "Like seven years ago, they declined."
  • Reliever Manny Corpas, who agreed to a non-guaranteed split contract with the Cubs, has a $1MM base salary while in the bigs with another potential $1MM in incentives, tweets Heyman.
  • The Mets sent R.A. Dickey's agent a letter to warn that they can void his contract if he's injured climbing Mount Kilimanjaro in January, writes Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.  As GM Sandy Alderson noted, that hasn't dissuaded the 37-year-old knuckleballer.
  • The Rockies' interest in Cody Ross is based on whether they trade Seth Smith, writes ESPN's Buster Olney.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan looks at the 2012-13 free agent class, writing, "What the class lacks in breadth up top it makes up for in depth."  We've got the full list here.  The potentially available young starting pitching looks deep in theory, but we'll see which of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, and Brandon McCarthy are extended.
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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies New York Mets New York Yankees Carlos Beltran Cody Ross Manny Corpas R.A. Dickey Seth Smith

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Destinations For The Ten Best Remaining Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 11:33am CDT

Baseball executives A.J. Hinch and Kenny Williams each batted around .219 in their big league careers.  That may help you visualize how I'm doing in MLBTR's free agent prediction contest this offseason.  With 7 of 32 correct, I currently rank 922nd out of over 5,000 entries.  In contrast, MLBTR readers Kay Jay, David Silverberg, Alex Gregor, and Shaun O'Toole lead the pack, pulling .375 averages that even Ty Cobb couldn't manage in his career.

A look at my October 31st predictions also shows that top 25 free agents Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Hiroki Kuroda, Carlos Pena, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Coco Crisp, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Paul Maholm remain unsigned.  It's no coincidence that half of them are represented by the Boras Corporation.  Here are some possibilities for the 10 best free agents still on the market.

2.  Prince Fielder – $153MM over six years might allow Boras to save face, claiming the second-highest average annual value in baseball history even if it'd mean falling well short of the $200MM landmark.  Obviously, $180MM over seven years would be better and isn't crazy, while an opt-out could sweeten the deal for Fielder and let him hit free agency again as a 30-year-old.  As MLB.com's Richard Justice notes, the market for Fielder is plain mysterious at this point.  If there's an obvious candidate to vastly overpay for Fielder, they've yet to be revealed.  The Orioles, Mariners, and Cubs are in the mix to some extent.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has recently mentioned the Nationals and Rangers, though those teams are viewed as unlikely by other reporters.  The Cubs and Mariners remain the current favorites. 

6.  Edwin Jackson – Though his pitching record won't change, Jackson will look more and more appealing over the next few weeks to teams looking for a rotation upgrade.  In a December 25th MLBTR poll of almost 17,000 MLBTR readers, the Yankees were the top pick with 19% of a well-divided vote.  Four days ago, Heyman named the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rockies, Marlins, and Tigers as teams looking for pitching.  The Pirates could be a dark horse, and if the Jackson market dips to around three years and $33MM more teams may jump in.  For EJax, things are just getting started.

14.  Ryan Madson – The Red Sox and Angels have been linked to Madson, who may or may not have been offered four years and $44MM by the Phillies before they signed Jonathan Papelbon.  If Madson is to find three years and $30MM, the Red Sox and Angels will have to start a bidding war.

15.  Hiroki Kuroda – If the Yankees take a pass, Kuroda could fall to the Red Sox, Cubs, or Hiroshima Carp.  One would think a half-dozen other teams would be in the mix for Kuroda on a one-year deal.

16.  Carlos Pena – It's been quiet on the Pena front, but he could work for the Rays, Indians, Cubs, or Brewers if the price falls.  I think another one-year deal is in order.

18.  Roy Oswalt – Six days ago, Heyman named the Red Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Yankees as Oswalt suitors, excluding other teams that acquired starters since then.  On a one-year deal, any would-be contender could conceivably jump in.

19.  Javier Vazquez – Four days ago, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro said Vazquez maintains he is retiring.

21.  Coco Crisp – Crisp seeks a multiyear deal from a contender, and the Cubs and Dodgers could be possibilities.  The Marlins or Nationals could offer him the chance to stay in center field.

22.  Hisashi Iwakuma – My ranking for Iwakuma was probably too high; he might be looking at a one-year deal.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported two teams have viable interest in the righty, but the A's are lukewarm on him.

25.  Paul Maholm – I think Maholm will be able to find a two-year contract.  The Cubs were in the mix prior to adding Travis Wood and Andy Sonnanstine.  The Rockies have options, but they could still be a fit.  

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Pirates Prioritize Adding Another Starter

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 10:03am CDT

The latest on the Pirates…

  • The Pirates still have money to spend and their top priority is a starting pitcher, writes Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  About three weeks ago, the Pirates signed Erik Bedard and released Ross Ohlendorf.  Paul Maholm, who made 26 starts for the Bucs this year, is expected to sign elsewhere.  The list of unsigned free agent starters remains robust as December draws to a close.
  • The Pirates are looking to compete in 2012, president Frank Coonelly told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  Coonelly says the team's focus has shifted to improving the Major League club.  Payroll is expected to be up from last year's $42MM mark; I have them pegged for about that amount already before accounting for minimum salary players or future additions.  Coonelly indicated that once the Pirates reach the point of having one glaring need, they're more likely to pursue an expensive impact free agent.  Click here to read Coonelly's full comments.
  • The Pirates' portfolio approach has resulted in $20.75MM worth of commitments to four players so far: Clint Barmes ($10.5MM), Bedard ($4.5MM), Rod Barajas ($4MM), and Nate McLouth ($1.75MM).  Jake Fox, Ryota Igarashi, Jose Morales, Shairon Martis, Tim Wood, Jeff Clement, Nick Evans, Anderson Hernandez, and Brandon Boggs have signed minor league deals.
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Pittsburgh Pirates

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Extension-Prone Agencies And GMs

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 9:43am CDT

Some agencies are more open to multiyear extensions for their clients than others.  The Boras Corporation is notorious for avoiding such deals.  In the last three years, only Boras clients Carlos Gonzalez and Jered Weaver signed significant extensions, with Prince Fielder and Stephen Drew signing two-year deals covering arbitration years.  Certainly the agency's number of clients will correlate to its volume of extensions, and unfortunately I don't have the complete data needed to give a percentage of clients extended.  Using MLBTR's Transaction Tracker, these agencies have brokered the most extensions since the beginning of 2009:

  • CAA Sports (13)
  • Octagon (9)
  • Beverly Hills Sports Council (8)
  • SFX (7)
  • ACES (6), Praver/Shapiro (6), Sosnick Cobbe (6), Wasserman Media Group (6)
  • Legacy Sports Group (5), LSW Baseball (5), Moye Sports Associates (5)

Most active GMs have authored at least one contract extension since 2009, with exceptions for recent hires Dan Duquette, Ben Cherington, Terry Ryan, Jerry Dipoto, and Jeff Luhnow.  The leaders:

  • Dan O'Dowd/Rockies (10)
  • John Mozeliak/Cardinals (8), Kenny Williams/White Sox (8), Ruben Amaro Jr./Phillies (8)
  • Doug Melvin/Brewers (7)
  • Andrew Friedman/Rays (6), Brian Sabean/Giants (6), Ned Colletti/Dodgers (6), Walt Jocketty/Reds (6), Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer/Cubs (6)
  • Alex Anthopoulos/Blue Jays (5), Dave Dombrowski/Tigers (5)

White Sox GM Kenny Williams and CAA Sports appear high on both lists, so perhaps John Danks' recent deal shouldn't have been a surprise.  Carlos Quentin is another CAA client.  Ned Colletti, Andre Ethier, and CAA make another good combination.  Also on the CAA front, I wonder if Alex Anthopoulos has broached an extension for Brett Lawrie.  The Cubs' Matt Garza is another name to consider here.

Other combinations of extension-prone agencies and GMs might bode well for Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, John Axford, Nyjer Morgan, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Melky Cabrera, Jeremy Affeldt, Kelly Johnson, Brandon Morrow, Jason Motte, Brandon Phillips, Delmon Young, Starlin Castro, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster, and Philip Humber.  Of course, those who just finished off-years are less likely to be extended now.

Agency and team matchups were found using MLBTR's Agency Database.  For my look at arbitration eligible extension candidates, click here.

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Marlins Focused On Re-Signing Dobbs

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 8:57am CDT

The Marlins' immediate priority is to re-sign utility player Greg Dobbs, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.  He says the team hopes to finalize a deal soon.  The Nationals had also been in the mix for Dobbs, but Frisaro's colleague Bill Ladson tweeted four days ago they were unlikely to sign him.   

Dobbs, 33, hit .275/.311/.389 in a career-high 439 plate appearances for the Marlins this year.  He logged 755 innings at third base, also pitching in at first base and the outfield corners.  A left-handed hitter, Dobbs has struggled against southpaws in his career.  As a pinch-hitter, he has a career line of .259/.316/.430 in 316 plate appearances.  The Marlins offered Dobbs a two-year deal in late September, writes Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post.

Frisaro also notes that the Marlins are not expected to sign any more big-ticket free agents, but they're exploring the trade market for frontline starters.  He says the Marlins aren't seeking competition for the back end of the rotation, though Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald wrote recently that they're casting a wide net.

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Miami Marlins Greg Dobbs

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Arbitration Eligible Extension Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2011 at 8:16am CDT

From Matt Moore to Chris Carpenter, extensions for players not eligible for arbitration happen all the time.  More commonly, though, arbitration eligible players are locked up to multiyear deals in January or February.  176 players are eligible for arbitration this offseason.  Of those, Matt Kemp, John Danks, Skip Schumaker, and Tony Gwynn Jr., have signed multiyear deals, 19 more have signed for 2012, and Landon Powell was designated for assignment.  Those on one-year deals can still potentially sign multiyear pacts, so the field of arbitration eligible extension candidates is large and merits narrowing to about 50 players.  My possibilities for multiyear deals:

  • Catchers: Mike Napoli (Rangers), Russell Martin (Yankees), Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks), Nick Hundley (Padres)
  • First basemen: Michael Morse (Nationals)
  • Second basemen: Howie Kendrick (Angels)     
  • Shortstops: Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians), Erick Aybar (Angels), Elvis Andrus (Rangers)
  • Third basemen: Pablo Sandoval (Giants), Chase Headley (Padres)
  • Outfielders: Hunter Pence (Phillies), Andre Ethier (Dodgers), Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox), B.J. Upton (Rays), Michael Bourn (Braves), Carlos Quentin (White Sox), Adam Jones (Orioles), Nelson Cruz (Rangers), Alex Gordon (Royals), Shin-Soo Choo (Indians), Brett Gardner (Yankees), Dexter Fowler (Rockies)
  • Starting pitchers: Tim Lincecum (Giants), Cole Hamels (Phillies), Matt Garza (Cubs), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles), David Price (Rays), Shaun Marcum (Brewers), Anibal Sanchez (Marlins), Jair Jurrjens (Braves), Jason Vargas (Mariners), Gio Gonzalez (Nationals), Brandon Morrow (Blue Jays), Max Scherzer (Tigers), Justin Masterson (Indians), Brandon McCarthy (Athletics), Tim Stauffer (Padres), Ryan Vogelsong (Giants), Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals)
  • Relievers: Mike Adams (Rangers), Brandon League (Mariners), Joel Hanrahan (Pirates), Andrew Bailey (Athletics), Tyler Clippard (Nationals), Daniel Bard (Red Sox), Glen Perkins (Twins), David Robertson (Yankees), Sergio Romo (Giants)

Some of these players, such as Upton and Garza, are more likely to be traded than extended, but the Danks extension showed anything is possible.  Also, arbitration eligible clients of the Boras Corporation shy away from extensions, and Andrus, Bourn, Choo, Ellsbury, Fowler, Jurrjens, and Scherzer are part of that group. 

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Cubs Close To Deal With Jason Jaramillo

By Tim Dierkes | December 26, 2011 at 2:18pm CDT

The Cubs are close to a minor league deal with catcher Jason Jaramillo, MLBTR has learned.  The Pirates designated Jaramillo for assignment upon signing Erik Bedard this month, non-tendering him a few days later.

Jaramillo, 29, has accumulated 366 big league plate appearances over the last three seasons with the Pirates, hitting .235/.293/.327.  A former second-round pick of the Phillies, Jaramillo missed much of this season with an elbow injury.  The switch-hitter will be a candidate for the Cubs' backup catcher job behind Geovany Soto, a role filled by Koyie Hill the last several years.  Jaramillo is a native of Wisconsin.    

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MLBTR Text Message Alerts

By Tim Dierkes | December 22, 2011 at 1:36pm CDT

Want to be the first to know where Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Gio Gonzalez land?  MLBTR is already coming at you from many angles, and now we have an option to receive text message alerts on your mobile phone.  

If you'd like to receive a text message on your cell phone for each significant MLB transaction, just text IMS2 MLBTR to 368674.  It's not case-sensitive but please note the space between "IMS2" and "MLBTR."  Each news text message will likely include a sponsored message at the end.  To comply with FCC text message regulations you are required to double opt-in by replying with a 1, then a yes to subscribe.  Once you successfully opt in, you'll receive a message that says "Thank you for subscribing!"

The service is free, though standard message and data rates may apply.  Your information will never shared or sold to third parties.  The MLBTR service will not work if your carrier is MetroPCS.

If you're an advertiser who would like to send a sponsored message following an MLBTR news text, contact Tim Dierkes at mlbtradvertising@gmail.com.

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | December 20, 2011 at 10:34pm CDT

As usual, most arbitration cases remain unsettled as we approach the new year, including heavyweights such as Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, and Clayton Kershaw.  MLBTR has created a handy database of all arbitration eligible players, which will include information on submissions from both sides, midpoints, and settlement amounts.  You can also filter by team and whether a hearing occurred.

As a reminder, this year players on MLB rosters with at least two years and 146 days but less than six years of service time are arbitration eligible.  Matt Swartz has projected salaries for all of these players exclusively for MLBTR, and you can find that information here.  We've all added Kelly Johnson, David Ortiz, and Francisco Rodriguez to this database, as they were free agents who accepted arbitration.

Important arbitration dates to keep in mind, according to the Associated Press:

  • January 13th: Deadline for players to file for arbitration.  This is largely procedural.
  • January 17th: Deadline for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures.  On this date and the day prior, expect dozens of settlements.  Teams can still negotiate after exchanging figures, although several teams employ a "file and trial" strategy in which they end negotiations on one-year deals once figures are exchanged to ensure a hearing occurs.  These teams have included the Rays, Nationals, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and Astros.
  • February 1-21: Hearings occur in St. Petersburg, Florida.  In 2011, Pence, Jered Weaver, and Ross Ohlendorf had hearings.  At a hearing, a each side has an hour to argue for their salary figure, and a three-person panel picks one of the salaries.
  • January is always a big month for multiyear extensions.  Last year we had 17.
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