Outrighted: Jeremy Accardo
The latest players to be outrighted to Triple-A…
- Reliever Jeremy Accardo cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk, the Orioles announced. The move drops the team's 40-man roster count to 39. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted Accardo as a non-tender candidate earlier this morning, so it's no surprise he was removed from the 40-man today. Accardo, 29, posted a 5.73 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, and 37.4% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings for the Orioles this year. He was designated for assignment in June and accepted a Triple-A assignment, but was re-added to the 40-man in September.
Phillies Aim To Sign Free Agent Closer
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked to reporters today at Citizens Bank Park, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News has the transcript. Highlights:
- If the Phillies don't re-sign closer Ryan Madson, Amaro will go outside the organization for a replacement, he told reporters including MLB.com's Todd Zolecki today. Madson, a Scott Boras client, could be a tough sign. Amaro said he talked to Madson yesterday, and the righty is excited about free agency. The Phillies can at least get a couple of draft picks as a consolation prize. Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez are also on the free agent market.
- Amaro said he'd like Domonic Brown to spend another full season in Triple-A (Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer with the tweet). Brown, one of the game's top prospects prior to the season, hit .245/.333/.391 in 210 plate appearances in the Majors this year. Most of Brown's starts came prior to the team's acquisition of Hunter Pence. Amaro says Brown has some work to do in left field, a position that will be an "open competition" for the 2012 Phillies.
- Amaro does not think Ryan Howard's torn Achilles tendon will impact the team's offseason moves.
- Free agent signings are more likely than trades.
- The Phillies are still discussing Roy Oswalt's $16MM option internally. Amaro says that "might be a tough one." The Phillies' front office has also internally discussed extending Cole Hamels.
- The Phillies' payroll is expected to be similar to this year's.
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Clayton Kershaw
- Second time: Tony Gwynn Jr.
- Third time: Matt Kemp, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo
- Fourth time: Andre Ethier
Should Kershaw win the Cy Young award, our model projects a record-shattering first-time pitcher salary of $8.4MM. Tim Lincecum had two Cy Youngs under his belt when he submitted for $13MM against the Giants' $8MM figure in February of 2010. We know Lincecum would have gotten one of those two figures had he not signed an extension. Kershaw's agents, the Hendricks brothers, could position their client as Lincecum Lite. Kershaw won't have the two Cys but he will have almost 120 more innings, seven more wins, and pretty much the same ERA Lincecum did.
Kemp could bring an MVP award or at least a lot of votes to the arbitration table. Matt Swartz's work for MLBTR has shown that MVP and Cy Young awards boost salary more for first-time arbitration eligibles, so Kemp's huge payday may come mostly from his stellar stats. The model projects a $16.3MM salary for Kemp, though admittedly a $9.35MM raise might be a tough sell for his agent Dave Stewart. Matt explained to me, "There's just no one in recent history who has the kind of AVG/SB combined with the HR/RBI like Kemp, so he’s basically getting a Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard raise and a B.J. Upton/Corey Patterson raise at the same time." Matt notes that the Kemp and Kershaw projections have the widest error bars, because there is so little precedent for them.
Ethier will be well-paid as well; he projects at $10.7MM. That represents a pretty small raise from the last year of his two-year deal, as Ethier was lacking in counting stats this year. A few days ago, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Jim Bowden he's not inclined to trade Ethier. Colletti said in September he'd love to have Loney back; we think the first baseman could get $6.5MM in arbitration. Kuo, a non-tender candidate, projects at a salary reduction to about $2.5MM. Gwynn is on the bubble as well; he could make $1.1MM in arbitration.
If all six arbitration eligible Dodgers are retained, the total could reach a staggering $45MM. But if Loney, Kuo, and Gwynn are deemed too expensive at arbitration prices, that'd trim about $10MM. Cot's Baseball Contracts shows contractual commitments totaling $46.2MM for 2012, including $11.5MM for Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones. Even the high-end arbitration estimate puts the Dodgers around $90MM before accounting for minimum salary players, and that's $30MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll. Further savings could be found through trades or non-tenders, or reduced salaries in long-term deals for Kershaw and/or Kemp. The team's ownership turmoil figures to result in a reduced payroll, but Colletti seems to think he can afford some significant free agents.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Rollins On Free Agency
Phillies shortstop and impending free agent Jimmy Rollins met with the media at Citizens Bank Park today. Rollins' quotes will be easier to parse once a full transcript is available, but in the meantime here are a few nuggets from the team's beat writers.
- Rollins reiterated that he's seeking a five-year deal, tweets MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. The shortstop said he's open to a fifth-year option, however. Zolecki indicates that it'd have to be Rollins' option, so perhaps a player or vesting one. Rollins turns 33 next month. He talked about his five-year goal to SI's Jon Heyman on September 28th.
- Rollins says there's a "good chance" a deal with the Phillies happens, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Zolecki has Rollins saying he can't picture wearing another uniform, but noted that the shortstop also said it's about years and money.
- GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he plans to keep talks with Rollins private. Asked what losing Rollins would mean, Amaro said, "I will say that it will be a huge blow for us, but not insurmountable." Amaro said some in the organization feel Freddy Galvis is ready to play shortstop every day, and some do not, so he's not sure whether they'd go outside the organization for a replacement.
Angels Owner Outlines GM Criteria
Angels owner Arte Moreno told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register his decision to dismiss GM Tony Reagins was not an implusive one. Moreno says the decision came about because "our baseball people made some decisions that did not work out on the baseball field," but suggesting that the January acquisition of Vernon Wells was the final straw for Reagins is "a complete overstatement."
Moreno, team president John Carpino, chairman Dennis Kuhl, former GM Bill Stoneman, and manager Mike Scioscia are currently putting a list together of GM candidates. They have not contacted any teams for permission to interview anyone. The criteria for the next Angels GM, according to Moreno:
- The person does not necessarily need prior experience as a GM. Plunkett does not expect the Angels to go after an established GM.
- Moreno said, "I think you want a good baseball man – or I should say baseball person because there are some qualified women out there – because you want to be able to evaluate talent." This statement doesn't tell us much, in my opinion.
- "You also want him to be able to manage a (minor-league) system, so you have to look at someone who can evaluate how we're drafting and developing players," says Moreno.
- The Angels' owner also seeks someone with "good communication skills." Plunkett notes that Moreno has had positive words for the analytical abilities of a couple of the remaining Angels front office members, so maybe that's something Moreno is also after.
- Scioscia is seen as having more power than the average manager, but Moreno says he "has a voice but he's not making the call."
- Click here for MLBTR's list of GM candidates.
Papelbon Discusses Free Agency
"It really truly isn't all about the money," closer Jonathan Papelbon told WEEI's Rob Bradford. In that case, he would have remained a starter. Instead, the impending free agent says, "I'm going to a place where I know I'm going to succeed. I'm going to a place where I know I have a chance to win a championship. I'm going to a place where I know that my family is going to be safe, my family is going to like the environment, and everything else that goes along with off-field stuff."
The door is still open for Papelbon to return to the Red Sox, though no talks have occurred yet. Papelbon told Bradford that he told Sox GM Theo Epstein, "Listen man, if you ever need anything, I'm here for you whether I'm going to be back here or whether I'm not going to be back here." Papelbon has set arbitration records for closers the past three years, but says contract talks were "extremely easy for both sides."
The next step may be the Red Sox offering arbitration to the 30-year-old stopper, who qualifies as a Type A free agent. Last year November 23rd was the deadline to offer arbitration to free agents, but it appears the deadline might be November 30th this year.
Top closers Papelbon and Ryan Madson will likely be vying to become the first free agent relievers to sign four-year deals since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago.
Towers On Hill, Bloomquist, Blanco, Saunders, Parra
Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers spoke to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic yesterday. Highlights:
- Towers would like to bring back second baseman Aaron Hill, but not at his option prices of $8MM for each of the 2012 and '13 seasons. The 29-year-old hit .315/.386/.492 in 142 plate appearances for Arizona, his first stint in the National League. He's represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council, as our Agency Database shows.
- Towers is "leaning toward" exercising Willie Bloomquist's $1.1MM mutual option and will "probably" pick up a $1.15MM mutual option on catcher Henry Blanco. Piecoro expects both players back, so these might be rare cases where both sides exercise their end of mutual options.
- The GM is undecided on whether to tender a contract to lefty Joe Saunders, depending on whether he thinks the team's young starters are ready. Saunders is due a raise on this year's $5.5MM salary, which we'll dig into later this week here at MLBTR. Towers believes the team has the payroll space for both Hill and Saunders, if that's the route he chooses. I think Saunders will be tendered a contract, since he'd have some trade value.
- Left fielder Gerardo Parra's possible Super Two status is "too close to call right now," said Towers. As of August 23rd, a source told me the cutoff appeared to be two years and 145 days of service, which is the exact amount Parra has.
- Towers seeks a bat to complement first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, and Piecoro thinks that might mean re-signing Lyle Overbay.
- Towers feels that the Diamondbacks' pitching staff is in "pretty good shape." The GM doesn't see "big, big" offseason needs, though he won't rule out a run at the "right kind of marquee guy."
Central Notes: Ventura, Ordonez, Sizemore, Epstein
If the Tigers win the ALCS, we could see the first all-Central World Series since St. Louis topped Detroit five years ago. Today's AL and NL Central links…
- The White Sox announced they'll introduce new manager Robin Ventura tomorrow at an 11am central time press conference. ESPNChicago's Doug Padilla reported today that Mark Parent will come aboard as Ventura's bench coach and Joe McEwing will serve as the third base coach. Jeff Manto is ahead of Tim Laker in terms of hitting coach candidates, Padilla reports.
- The Tigers' Magglio Ordonez re-fractured his ankle Saturday, reported MLB.com's Jason Beck. The right fielder will see specialists after returning to Detroit, tweets Tom Gage of the Detroit News. Ordonez, 38 in January, is eligible for free agency this winter.
- "It seems highly unlikely" that the Indians will exercise their $8.5MM club option on center fielder Grady Sizemore, opines MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The Indians revealed Tuesday that Sizemore had a right knee arthroscopy but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Should the 29-year-old reach free agency, I'd rank him around 30th on my top 50 list.
- A rival executive talked to ESPN's Buster Olney on Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and the Cubs: "If he met with the Cubs, what it means is that if he gets the offer he wants, he's gone [to Chicago]." Earlier today, however, SI's Jon Heyman wrote that most baseball insiders "believe it's more likely than not [Epstein will] remain in Boston, at least for now."
- Brewers reliever Francisco Rodriguez reflected on this summer's trade, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post, "I'm winning, and [the Mets] needed pretty much to get rid of me." K-Rod told Puma he holds no grudge toward the Mets.
- Of the 11 Pirates players eligible for arbitration this winter, only Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, and Evan Meek are absolutely certain to be tendered contracts, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. She notes that "if the Pirates do not intend to tender a contract to someone on the list, there is a good chance that player will be removed in November so that the Pirates can open up roster spots to protect players from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft." Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for the Pirates' arbitration group.
- The chances of lefty Paul Maholm returning to the Pirates next year are less than 50-50, in the opinion of Langosch. I'd say Maholm ranks toward the back end of the top ten free agent starters this winter.
- Check out my offseason outlooks for the Cubs and Astros.
Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish
- Second time: Edinson Volquez, Jared Burton, Bill Bray
- Third time: Nick Masset
I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K. The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.
Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts. A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K). Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him. The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.
If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM. Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM. GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell
Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell. Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons. Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.
In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates. He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty. He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease. No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.
Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September. He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities. Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways. It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years. Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.
For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market. That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign. For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration. So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not. Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell?
Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
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Heath Bell 56% (3,966)
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Ryan Madson 44% (3,086)
Total votes: 7,052