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Red Sox Rumors: Managerial Candidates, Epstein, Pitching

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The Red Sox are in the news every day right now; here's the latest…

  • The Sox have not finalized a list of managerial candidates to interview, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Name candidates such as Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Valentine are not thought to be on Boston's list, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.  Instead, the top candidates appear to be Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, and Sandy Alomar Jr.  It seems possible that the Red Sox will have to go head-to-head with the White Sox in their manager search.  McAdam notes that as a member of the coaching staff of former manager Terry Francona, DeMarlo Hale is unlikely to be interviewed.  
  • The Cubs asked the Red Sox permission to speak with GM Theo Epstein, reported Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe yesterday.  Red Sox management spent the day discussing the request; WCVB TV's Mike Lynch wrote that they could ask for compensation just to talk to Epstein, or they could collect compensation later.
  • The relationship between Epstein and Red Sox president Larry Lucchino has gotten much better, according to Peter Gammons.
  • Bradford takes an in-depth look at the Red Sox pitching staff.  He finds the team unlikely to pursue a big-name starting pitcher.  Bradford feels Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could be starting candidates next year, Andrew Miller's $3MM option will be exercised, and Tim Wakefield might have to continue his career elsewhere.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Clint Barmes

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Clint Barmes ranks eighth among all free agent position players in FanGraphs' wins above replacement for 2011, after Jimmy Rollins and Aramis Ramirez but before Michael Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro.  Not bad for a guy I considered a non-tender candidate a year ago.

Barmes

Barmes (pictured) ended up a bright spot for the Astros, mainly because he was able to play a capable shortstop for a thousand innings.  That's where most of the WAR value comes from, rather than Barmes' .244/.312/.386 batting line.  He played 123 games for the Astros, missing most of April due to a broken bone in his hand.

Credit the Astros for recognizing Barmes' value as a shortstop, a position he hadn't played regularly for Colorado once Troy Tulowitzki arrived.  Barmes has said he'd like to return to the Astros, but GM Ed Wade isn't sure if the team's economic environment will allow it.

Omar Infante's two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins seems a fair comparable for Barmes and the Astros.  The Astros should at least offer arbitration to Barmes, assuming our projection that he just barely made the cut for Type B status is accurate.  Above-average shortstops are hard to come by on the open market, though at least two others will be available in free agency this winter in Jose Reyes and Rollins.  If the Astros fail to sign Barmes, he could be a more affordable alternative for the Twins, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, or Giants.      

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Prepare for the most exciting Marlins offseason in recent memory.  With new manager Ozzie Guillen's arrival and the opening of the team's new ballpark, ownership wants to make 2012 unforgettable.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

To compete in the NL East next year, the Marlins will need improved starting pitching, offense, and health.  Clearly, this team is looking for a fresh start in 2012 as they've been rebranded the Miami Marlins, and quote machine Guillen will man the helm.  Most importantly, the team's payroll will be the largest in franchise history.

The six players under guaranteed contracts account for $49.75MM in salary, which is only $8MM shy of 2011's Opening Day payroll.  Estimating the price of the club's ten-player arbitration class is a difficult exercise.  I think we can pencil in Sanchez, Bonifacio, Mujica, and Badenhop for about $10.5MM, but that leaves the remaining six as candidates for non-tender or trade.  Oviedo, formerly known as closer Leo Nunez prior to the revelation of his commitment of identity fraud, was already the highest-paid reliever in Marlins history in 2011.  He could receive a $2MM+ raise and his 2012 team must request a visa for him to play next year, which could seal the fate of Oviedo, who was already on the bubble as a non-tender candidate.  If Oviedo is not retained, the remaining arbitration eligibles won't be too costly.

Subtracting Oviedo and Vazquez and otherwise keeping the Marlins the same will already result in over $65MM in commitments, a franchise payroll record.  Recently, a person close to the Marlins' front office told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post the 2012 payroll could approach $100MM, as owner Jeffrey Loria aims to make 2012 unforgettable.  If Loria follows through, the result would be an additional $35MM in payroll flexibility, which could be further expanded if the team trades Nolasco.  However, with Vazquez and his 192 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball potentially headed for retirement and ace Josh Johnson limited to 60 1/3 innings in 2011 due to a shoulder injury, a Nolasco trade could add uncertainty to a situation already bursting with it.

I expect president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to actively seek starting pitching, especially if he's bearish about the futures of Nolasco and Volstad.  Several interesting rotation scenarios have been tossed around, from Guillen bringing in old Chicago friends Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins winning the bidding on C.J. Wilson.  The bullpen should have many holdovers, but new blood is likely if Oviedo is non-tendered. 

Questions in the Marlins' offense also abound, as center field and third base are unsettled.  The team's top prospect  Matt Dominguez wouldn't represent a "win-now" choice at the hot corner, but Aramis Ramirez, the one desirable free agent third baseman, could block Dominguez for three years.  Coco Crisp is probably the only viable free agent option for center field, but the trade market may feature B.J. Upton and Denard Span.  Internally, Bryan Petersen could hold equal appeal.

Another potential route for the Marlins would be signing a big-name free agent and trading Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison for pitching.  Both players had respectable 2011 seasons, showing decent pop and on-base ability.  Sanchez may still be on notice because the free agent market offers a pair of first-base superstars in Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.  With Morrison, there's speculation that the outspoken left fielder's questionable August demotion could be a precursor to a trade.  I think the Marlins have too many offensive question marks to sell low on LoMo.

The Marlins may achieve temporary media relevance with Guillen and a couple of pricey free agents, as they look to go all-in for the opening of their new stadium.  Ultimately, though, the biggest additions to the 2012 club may be healthy seasons from Ramirez and Johnson.

Dodgers Decline Options On Garland, Blake

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The Dodgers announced on Twitter today that they've declined club options on starter Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake, and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A.  Typically option decisions are announced after the World Series, but Garland and Blake were obvious choices.

For Garland, the Dodgers chose a $500K buyout over an $8MM club option.  Garland had signed for a below-market guarantee of $5MM in November, but a vesting option in the contract became moot when the righty when down for an oblique injury in March and shoulder surgery in July.  Garland, now 32, had previously been a lock for around 200 innings per season.  If Garland is healthy, his agents at LSW Baseball should have no problem finding a one-year deal worth a few million plus incentives, along with a back-end rotation job.

The Dodgers chose a $1.25MM buyout over a $6MM club option on Blake, finishing a contract signed in December of '08.  The 38-year-old Jim McDowell client hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances.  Blake's season was shortened by a ribcage, elbow, and neck injuries, culminating in September neck surgery.  McDowell told MLBTR recently that his client should be "100% for 2012."  Blake is also looking at a one-year deal, probably of the part-time variety.  You can check out MLBTR's list of all the 2012 free agents here.

Velez, now the record-holder for a non-pitcher going hitless in a season with an 0-for-37 showing, was removed from the 40-man roster.  Once free agents Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll, Hiroki Kuroda, Rod Barajas, Juan Rivera, Vicente Padilla, Jonathan Broxton, and Mike MacDougal are subtracted, the Dodgers' tally will be down to 30.

Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?

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The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years.  Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.

On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years.  Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season.  He's still only 31 years old.  Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies.  At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.

There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was.  Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad.  Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding.  I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM.  As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams.  Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.

 

C.C. Sabathia's new contract will be worth...
$121-130MM 18.09% (1,448 votes)
$141-150MM 14.06% (1,125 votes)
Over $170MM 13.99% (1,120 votes)
$131-140MM 12.25% (980 votes)
$151-160MM 11.57% (926 votes)
$100-110MM 11.27% (902 votes)
$161-170MM 9.75% (780 votes)
$111-$120MM 9.02% (722 votes)
Total Votes: 8,003

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date.  It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.

The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates.  September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so.  Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K).  There are reasons to retain several of them.  Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010.  Gonzalez plays capable defense.  Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.

Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground.  Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery.  There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.

I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM.  The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield.  Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered.  Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Theo Epstein And Starting Pitching

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Theo Epstein was hired as GM of the Red Sox on November 25th, 2002, so he's coming up on nine years at the helm.  The fatal flaw with Epstein's disappointing 2011 club was starting pitching, which prompted me to investigate his work assembling rotations.

2003 – Won wild card.  4.30 rotation ERA ranked fifth in AL.

Epstein had nothing to do with the '03 rotation, so we can strike it from his record.

2004 – Won World Series.  4.31 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.

Epstein deserves credit for 40% of this group, and Schilling was of course crucial.

2005 – Won wild card.  4.56 rotation ERA ranked seventh in AL.

  • Tim Wakefield – He signed an extension in '05 with a recurring $4MM club option, so perhaps he became part of Epstein's ledger here or with the '06 season.
  • Bronson Arroyo
  • Matt Clement – signed by Epstein in '04
  • David Wells – signed by Epstein in '04.
  • Curt Schilling
  • Wade Miller – signed by Epstein in '04.

This was not an impressive group, and most of them can be attributed to Epstein.

2006 – Missed playoffs.  5.00 rotation ERA ranked 11th in AL.

  • Josh Beckett - Seth Mnookin's 2006 book Feeding the Monster mainly credits president Larry Lucchino for the November '05 Beckett trade, as Epstein was on hiatus.  The book says assistant GM Jed Hoyer was in constant consultation with Epstein at the time and was wary of making the deal.  Beckett had a rough '06 season, during which Epstein extended him potentially through 2010.
  • Curt Schilling
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Jon Lester – The 2002 draftee officially goes on the ledger of interim GM Mike Port, though Epstein was in the organization as assistant GM by that point.
  • Matt Clement
  • Kyle Snyder – claimed off waivers by Epstein in '06.

2007 – Won World Series.  4.21 rotation ERA ranked second in AL.

2008 – Won wild card.  4.02 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.

2009 – Won wild card.  4.63 rotation ERA ranked eighth in AL.

  • Josh Beckett
  • Jon Lester – Prior to this season, Epstein signed Lester potentially through 2014.
  • Brad Penny – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '08.
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Clay Buchholz – drafted by Epstein in '05.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka
  • John Smoltz – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.

2010 – Missed playoffs.  4.17 rotation ERA ranked sixth in AL.

  • John Lackey – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.
  • Jon Lester
  • Clay Buchholz
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka
  • Josh Beckett – A new extension for Beckett was completed by Epstein prior to this season, running through 2014.
  • Tim Wakefield – Wakefield's recurring option had been exercised three times.  Prior to this season, Epstein hammered out a new two-year extension.

2011 – Missed playoffs.  4.49 rotation ERA ranked ninth in AL.

  • Jon Lester
  • Josh Beckett
  • John Lackey
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Clay Buchholz
  • Andrew Miller – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '10.

Epstein has put together eight rotations in his time as Red Sox GM.  Three could comfortably be described as above-average.  Schilling and Arroyo, his best starting pitching acquisitions, came eight years ago.  So far Buchholz has been the only drafted starting pitcher to make an impact in one of Epstein's rotations, with '06 pick Justin Masterson becoming a major piece of the '09 trade for Victor Martinez.  While Matsuzaka has been disappointing as a whole, he made major contributions in '07 and '08.  Epstein also deserves credit for extending Wakefield, Beckett, and Lester.

Free agent starting pitchers have been a problem, with significant dollars spent on Lackey, Clement, Penny, and Smoltz.  And for a $103MM commitment, Dice-K has not paid off.

The Red Sox seem to have relative stability in their recent rotations, and Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz will be part of the 2012 group.  Still, a major acquisition seems likely this offseason.  For all of Epstein's positive contributions to the club, his ability to acquire good veteran starting pitching must be questioned.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Hill is the most likely non-tender in this group.  However, he'd only get a mild raise to $850K, and it's quite possible the Cubs keep him around due to defense, familiarity with the pitching staff, and other intangibles.  

Wells ($2.2MM), Soto ($4MM), and Baker ($1.4MM) had disappointing seasons, but should be part of the 2012 club.  DeWitt showed enough promise to be worth $1.2MM.  Garza represents the Cubs' headline arbitration case, and we project $8.7MM for him.  Jeremy Guthrie and John Danks will be current comparables for Garza.  There is not much recent precedent for a pitcher with this type of track record to make it to his third arbitration year.

If the Cubs retain all six of their arbitration eligibles, we project $18.4MM in total salary.  Assuming Ryan Dempster exercises his player option and Aramis Ramirez doesn't get a new contract prior to his option decision, the Cubs have around $91MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  If payroll remains in the $134MM range, the Cubs would have around $40MM to spend in 2012 salaries.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Slaten battled a sore elbow this year, tossing only 16 1/3 innings in the Majors.  At $900K he'd be cheap to retain, but he is a candidate to be non-tendered.  Flores' shoulder injury knocked him down the Nationals' catching depth chart, and they could look to trade him before the December 12th non-tender deadline.  We project a salary of around $800K, so some team will likely take a chance if the Nationals don't.  Gorzelanny cleared waivers in August, indicating no team found him a good value at a $2.1MM salary this year.  Next year it'd be around $2.8MM through arbitration.  His strikeout and walk rates in 15 starts this year were solid, though his suitors may wait out the Nats to see if they tender him a contract.

Lannan ($4.8MM), Morse ($3.7MM), Zimmermann ($1.8MM), and Clippard ($1.7MM) all project to be relatively affordable and part of the 2012 Nationals.  The four players project to earn a total of $12MM next year.

Including that $12MM, the Nationals have about $57MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  Holding payroll steady at this year's $68MM wouldn't leave much flexibility, but the Nats are capable of going beyond that number in their offseason quest to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder. 

Red Sox Rumors: Epstein, Cherington, Managerial Candidates

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The Red Sox appear headed for an interesting offseason; here's the latest.

  • A Major League source close to Theo Epstein told ESPN's Gordon Edes it's "50-50" the Red Sox GM would leave for the right situation.  Edes hears Epstein "believes in honoring a contract that has a year remaining," yet owner John Henry "would not stand in the way if Epstein wanted to pursue another opportunity."  Edes feels that while giving Epstein a club president title would be a promotion, the business aspect of that role has never held appeal for him.  If Epstein leaves, Edes has a source who would be very surprised if current assistant GM Ben Cherington didn't replace him.
  • Edes believes that if the Cubs or Angels intend to make a move for Epstein, it will come as early as this week.  The Red Sox "will likely ask for stiff compensation if they permit Epstein to leave for the Cubs, though an extension is still possible," tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  Sources are split on whether Angels owner Arte Moreno wants Epstein, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
  • Edes says the Red Sox have internally discussed Sandy Alomar Jr., Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, Ryne Sandberg, and Tony La Russa as candidates to replace Terry Francona as manager.  It is tricky to have Epstein overseeing this process given his uncertainty, but Cherington is involved as well.
  • In a must-read article, WEEI's Rob Bradford addresses the future of each Red Sox position player.

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