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Testimonials From Trade Rumors Front Office Subscribers

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An ad-free subscription to MLBTR costs just $2.99 per month or $29.89 per year.  Check out the full benefits here, and consider these real testimonials from current subscribers:

I’ve read MLB Trade Rumors for the last 10 years and I love the Front Office Membership! My favorite part is definitely the weekly chats since there are less of us, it is way more personable and I get multiple questions answered every week usually! I’ve read you guys for free for a decade and now it’s my turn to pay up and it’s well worth it! – Griffin C.

MLB Trade Rumors is the first thing I read each morning, and I check back multiple times during the day to make sure I’m not missing any breaking baseball news. I know the site costs money to maintain, and the writers can’t live on air. So I’m happy to contribute to running the site, and view it as voluntarily paying my fair share. The extra content is nice also. One has a much better chance of getting a question answered in the smaller FO chats. Also the advertisement free experience is good too. – Tony M.

I’m really enjoying the access to exclusive content (articles and chats) that being a Front Office member brings. High quality, lockdown-friendly materials that we all need, now, more than ever. – Andrew R.

I wondered for years how MLBTR could operate with such a high level of writing and current news, for free. The added benefits that come with membership make the subscription fee a steal. – Marc B.

I was happy to pay to support them and look forward to continuing to participate in all their subscription benefits such as their weekly chats with their great writers. – Matt P.

These guys have been working hard to bring us the best most up to date baseball news for years. COVID has made things tough all around. I encourage everyone who can afford it, to help keep the ship afloat in tough times, by joining! – J. Allen

I’ve been a huge fan of MLB Trade Rumors since Day One and when the option of becoming a paid subscriber came about, I did not hesitate! – Jimmy A.

No ads is awesome but the real icing on the cake is the premium, professional insight we get that the normal site doesn’t show. – Daniel M.

$0.83 a day, $2.50 a month for baseball content you can’t find anywhere else, NO brainer. – Bernie

One of my very best investments of 2020. – R. Clark

The exclusive member emails and chats are great. They really make me feel like I’m part of a larger community. – Joe P.

My MLBTR subscription is well worth the money! No ads and subscriber exclusive content combined with helping support MLBTR is a home run! – Jason T.

My favorite baseball content site; especially during hot-stove season. Happy to support the great work they’re doing, and the premium experience they offer is great and well worth the nominal price. – Drew B.

MLB Trade Rumors is the first site I go to every morning for updates on baseball transactions, and it’s the site I check in with several times a day to be sure I’m up to date on the latest news. And being a Front Office member builds on those benefits with members-only chats that greatly increase the odds of my questions being answered, Mailbags that allow me to send in questions that require more time and words to answer compared to a chat, and exclusive long-form articles diving deeper into various topics. The benefits Front Office provides are definitely worth the price. – Greg S.

MLBTR Front Office is the single best source of not only all things baseball, but also provides the most intelligent insight anywhere. If ever there was a web site worthy of reasonable subscription, it’s MLBTR! – Stephen M.

Best investment I’ve ever made when it comes to baseball. As a paid member of MLBTR I really feel like an insider. Private chats with paid members really feels like we are on the cutting edge of MLB happenings. – Stevie M.

Upgrading to the subscription base model is well worth the investment, which by the way is minimal. Plus I want to support hard working real baseball people who are providing me all the information I need in one place! Thanks MLBTR for all you do! – Tom M.

MLBTR, Hoops Rumors and Pro Football Rumors are my go-to for sports breaking news, forecasts, commentary and community discussion. The Front Office is a great value and excellent and exciting way for me to help support this content. – Dallin B.

MLBTR is, by far, the best place to keep track of MLB. I find myself checking in several times a day. The site is addictive. And now that I’ve paid a small amount I bypass all ads. A great investment for any committed fan. – Sandy G.

As a long time reader of MLBTR, becoming a subscriber was a good decision, a long time coming. I get access to additional chats and other unique features for the cost of a bottle of booze. Well worth your money. – John K.

They say the best things in life are free, but birds and bees don’t produce the great content on Trade Rumors! That takes hard work by real people! You can’t go wrong with a Front Office subscription to show how much you value that work and to get the excellent exclusive benefits of membership! – Michael M.

Subscribe to Trade Rumors Front Office today!

Check Out Our 2021 Arbitration Tracker

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MLBTR’s 2021 arbitration tracker is available here.  The tracker is regularly updated and allows for filtering by team, signing status, service time, and whether the player had a hearing.

This year, the date to exchange figures for unsigned arbitration eligible players is Friday, January 15th.  Most teams, if they reach the point of exchanging figures, will not have further negotiations for a one-year deal and will go to a hearing.  This has resulted in an increased number of hearings, about 13 per year on average since 2015.  Over the past decade teams have won 46 hearings, while players have won 44.

With the 60-game season in 2020 and no agreement on how that affects arbitration, the players that have made it this far without a contract are in uncharted waters.  At present, more than 120 arbitration eligible players are without contracts, including Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Kris Bryant, Walker Buehler, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto.  The record number of arbitration hearings was set in 1986, with 35.

Does Trevor Bauer Have A Case For Gerrit Cole’s AAV?

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In an article yesterday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand made a statistical case that Trevor Bauer’s recent body of work justifies him matching or exceeding the record $36MM average annual value Gerrit Cole received in December 2019.  While it may not be true that Cole and Bauer currently have beef, we can at least say the former UCLA teammates once had a rivalry.  Beating Cole’s AAV record would be a major feat for Bauer and agent Rachel Luba.  But as Homer Simpson once said, “Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent.  Forfty percent of all people know that.”  So I set out to see how Feinsand’s claims hold up.

Bauer has had an up-and-down career.  Since 2017, his season ERAs are 4.19, 2.21, 4.48, and 1.73.  Feinsand, who also included Stephen Strasburg in his comparison, mainly focused on each pitcher’s final 90 starts heading into free agency.  Why 90?  Well, a three-season lookback is pretty standard.  A 90-start lookback also happens to be quite convenient for Bauer, as it excludes his rough first half of 2017.

One thing I did not see in Feinsand’s article was any form of a strikeout rate, walk rate, or groundball rate.  Those are the things pitchers do that actually correlate year-to-year.  So here’s that look, with the additional info.  We’ll remove Strasburg, since the question is whether Bauer is worthy of Cole’s AAV record.  (App users can click here to see the 90-start comparison).

Cole had better strikeout and walk rates in his previous 90 starts, which is more important than the ERA difference.  But I was also thinking it’s strange to do a comparison that includes 25 starts from Cole’s 2017 season, his last with the Pirates.  Upon joining the Astros in a January 2018 trade, Cole famously changed his pitch mix and approach, to drastically improved results.  So how would a Bauer-Cole comparison look over the previous 60 starts?  (App users can click here to see the 60-start comparison).

Even though this window excludes Cole’s first five starts of 2018, which were dominant, it further accentuates the differences between the two hurlers.  They’re both strikeout pitchers.  But what Cole did in his walk year – a 39.9 K% – is literally the best in baseball history for a pitcher with at least 100 innings (Cole pitched 212 1/3).  Bauer’s walk year strikeout rate of 36% was historic in its own right – seventh all-time for a qualified starter – but it was only 11 starts due to the 60-game season.  That brings us to one last comparison, one that Feinsand made of each pitcher’s best 11 starts in their walk year (app users click here):

Both dominant stretches, yet Cole’s was clearly better.  If we’re comparing post-2019 Cole to current Trevor Bauer, we can state the following:

  • Cole averaged 97.2 miles per hour on his fastball in his walk year.  Bauer averaged 93.5.
  • On a related note, while both are strong strikeout pitchers, Cole was significantly better for longer.
  • Cole had better control than Bauer.
  • Cole was dominant in two full, consecutive seasons leading up to free agency.  Bauer has never been dominant in two consecutive seasons.
  • Bauer will be 234 days older on 4-1-21 than Cole was on 4-1-20.

On the merits of statistics, I don’t see how one can say that Bauer is better than Cole and therefore deserves a higher AAV.  Feinsand makes a good point, though: if Bauer limits himself to an artificially shorter contract, his AAV should go up from where it would have been had he maxed out the years.  But what is Bauer’s actual years maximum, assuming he won’t take an artificially low AAV like Bryce Harper did?

Given the current state of baseball economics, I’d suggest six.  So to bring enhanced AAVs into play as a reward for an artificially short term, Bauer would probably have to sign for four or fewer years.  Remember, the Dodgers reportedly offered Harper a $45MM AAV on a four-year term.  Instead, he took a $25MM AAV on a 13-year term.

There are several reasons why the Bauer-Cole comparison actually doesn’t matter.  The first is the state of the market in December 2019 compared to the current state of affairs.  All 30 teams brought in significantly smaller amounts of revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Most of the best free agents remain unsigned, but the ones that did sign exceeded expectations.  It’s an odd combination.  But it’s fair to say market conditions are worse for Bauer than they were for Cole.

The second reason contract comps don’t matter is that free agency is a bidding war.  The goal of every team targeting a free agent is to get that player for as little as possible.  Agents don’t convince teams to spend more money by holding up other free agent contracts from years past.  Generally speaking, teams run circles around agents in statistical chops, anyway.  It’s certainly possible that Luba will be able to get a couple of teams to bid irrationally on Bauer, but it won’t be because of what Cole received.

The last point is that teams don’t pay free agents for what they have done; they pay for what they expect the player to do in the future over the life of the contract.  Again, we have to defer to teams’ superior abilities to forecast what Bauer will do.  They’ll use advanced stats, Statcast data, health history, and proprietary information we’ll never see.  They won’t use ERA, which generally has a year-to-year correlation around 0.4.  But that’s how a team’s GM will approach it.  Signing Bauer is an ownership-level decision, and an owner is unlikely to analyze a potential signing with the same sophistication as the GM.

As Bauer once put it, he and Cole are “intertwined forever.”  The UCLA teammates were drafted two picks apart in 2011 and made their way to MLB free agency coming off fantastic walk years.  But as I see it, Bauer’s current position falls short of where Cole stood when he hit the market in 2019.

Support MLBTR With An Ad-Free Subscription

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MLBTR experienced a revenue decline of more than 40% in 2020.  If you’re a longtime reader with the means, we’d love your consideration for an ad-free subscription.  You can try it out monthly for $2.99, or snag two months free by choosing a $29.89 annual commitment.  We’re dedicated to adding value to the subscription beyond the removal of ads, with exclusive articles, chats, and other perks for subscribers.  Check out all the benefits of Trade Rumors Front Office today!

Explaining The Pitching Stats Used At MLBTR

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MLBTR has been around for 15 years, and in that time the statistics we use to evaluate players have continually evolved.  Today we’re going to discuss the pitching stats we’ll be using moving forward.

I’ve been contemplating moving away from K/9 and BB/9 to K% and BB% for a while now, a switch you might have noticed in my Top 50 Free Agents post.  As many have noted in recent years, it just makes more sense to look at strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced rather than use innings as the denominator.

The problem with strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is its interaction with the pitcher’s hits and walks allowed.  Imagine a reliever who goes three innings, giving up six hits and six walks while also striking out three batters.  Because of all the hits and walks, he faces 15 batters in total.  His K/9 is 9.0.  Every hit and walk extended the inning and gave him a fresh opportunity for a strikeout.  His K% is 20% (three strikeouts out of 15 batters), which is subpar.

Imagine a different reliever who goes three innings, strikes out three, and retires the other six batters.  His K/9 is 9.0.  His K% is 33.3 (three strikeouts per nine batters), which is good.

K/9, BB/9, and K/BB served us well for a long time.  They are by no means terrible, and most of us know the benchmarks better.  But when something better comes along that isn’t difficult to understand and makes more intuitive sense to use, then it’s time to rip off the Band-Aid and start using it.  That’s why we’ll be using K%, BB%, and K-BB% at MLBTR moving forward.  To get a feel for the benchmarks, check out this handy chart, reprinted with permission from our friends at Baseball HQ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In 2020, the top-20 starting pitchers had a K% of at least 25, a BB% below about 7, and a K-BB% above about 18.  Check out the starting pitcher leaderboard here.  The top relievers strike out about 35% of batters faced, walk fewer than 5%, and have a K-BB% of at least 27.  Play around with the reliever leaderboard here.

Notes on other pitching stats you’ll see at MLBTR:

  • SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), developed by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, is my preference over FIP or xFIP.  From what I’ve read, SIERA is the best at predicting future performance.  Check out the 2020 SIERA leaderboard here.
  • SwStr% (Swinging Strike Rate) is the ratio of swings and misses per pitches thrown.  It can be used to help back up strikeout rate.  Check out the leaderboard here.
  • BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play)
  • Groundball rate
  • We’ll be using Statcast metrics at times, which are explained at the bottom of this page.
  • I’m not a huge fan of WAR, especially in smaller samples, but it’s useful at times, widely recognized, and can be hard to ignore.  It’s something I hope to unpack and reconsider when time allows.
  • Don’t worry.  We’re not going to abandon ERA.

Pitching stats you probably won’t see at MLBTR:

  • K/9, BB/9, and K/BB for the aforementioned reasons.
  • A pitcher’s win-loss record, with the possible exception of a salary arbitration discussion.
  • WHIP, unless we’re writing about fantasy baseball.

2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker Now Available

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Trying to keep track of all the arbitration settlements?  Our 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker has you covered.  The tracker shows all arbitration eligible players, their service time, and their arbitration submission and settlement figures.  You can filter by team, signing status, service time, and more.  The next big date is January 15th, the deadline for teams and players to exchange salary figures.  You can access our 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker here.

Support MLBTR With An Ad-Free Subscription

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MLBTR’s revenue is down significantly this year.  If you’re a long-time reader and have the means, we’d appreciate your consideration for an ad-free subscription at $2.99 per month or $29.89 per year.  We’re working hard to make the subscription worthwhile beyond the removal of ads, with exclusive articles and chats from full-time writers Steve Adams and Connor Byrne.  Click here to read up on the full benefits of an ad-free subscription.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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Our new Free Agent Prediction Contest leaderboard is now available!  Over 4,000 MLBTR readers participated in our November prediction contest.  At this point eight of the top 50 free agents from our contest have signed.  Impressively, one person has correctly predicted the signing teams for five of them.  I’ll be updating this leaderboard as additional signings occur throughout the offseason.

Monthly Subscriptions Now Available For Trade Rumors Front Office

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Many MLBTR readers have been asking for a monthly subscription option, as a way of making a smaller commitment or testing out the service.  We now have that option.

As you can see on our member benefits page, you can now subscribe to Trade Rumors Front Office for $2.99 per month.  The better value is our annual subscription, now priced at $29.89 per year.  Basically, subscribing annually gives you two months free as compared to the monthly option.  Once you’re signed up, if you’d like to turn off the auto-renew, just go here.

If you choose to support MLBTR with a paid subscription, you’ll get the removal of ads on the website and app as well as exclusive articles and chats from our writers.  Subscribe today!

Love MLBTR? Support Us With An Ad-Free Subscription

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With MLBTR’s revenue down 40% this year, we’re asking diehard readers to consider supporting the site with an ad-free subscription.  We’re not asking for donations, however.  Our team works hard to make the $29.99-per-year subscription worth your while beyond the removal of ads, with exclusive chats, articles, and tools.  Check out all the benefits here.  Thanks for supporting our hot stove coverage.

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